According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of acetic acid remained stable this week. As of September 27th, the average market price of acetic acid was 3250 yuan/ton, which was the same as the beginning of the week price of 3250 yuan/ton and a decrease of 2.99% compared to the beginning of the month.

This week, the acetic acid market has been running steadily, and enterprise quotations have remained stable. On the supply side, the acetic acid plant is running smoothly, the market supply is steadily increasing, and enterprises are actively shipping; On the demand side, downstream pre holiday stocking sentiment is average, with a focus on restocking as needed. There is a supply-demand stalemate in the market, and industry players are cautious. Acetic acid prices are stable and operating on a wait-and-see basis.

As of September 27th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ On September 23rd/ On September 27th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 0

North China region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 0

Shandong region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 0

Jiangsu region/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 0

Zhejiang region/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 0

The upstream raw material methanol market has risen narrowly. As of September 27th, the average price in the domestic market was 2478 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 4.13% compared to the early week price of 2380 yuan/ton. Supported by a macro positive outlook, the domestic methanol market has stopped falling and risen. At the same time, the arrival volume of foreign ships is low, port inventory is depleted, and port methanol prices are also relatively strong. Methanol prices are running strongly before the holiday.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is operating steadily. On September 27th, the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 5472.50 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of the week price of 5472.50 yuan/ton. The upstream acetic acid market is mainly stable, with limited cost support for acetic anhydride. Downstream acetic anhydride follows suit as needed, and the market trading atmosphere is still acceptable. The supply and demand in the market are relatively balanced, and the acetic anhydride market remained stable during the week.

Market forecast: According to the acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society, the acetic acid plant is operating normally on the supply side, and the market supply of goods is stable. There is currently no positive news released; The demand for pre holiday stocking by downstream and trading companies is generally low, and the market trading atmosphere is weak, with a stalemate in the market atmosphere. It is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will continue to be stable, and with limited holiday shipments, the price of acetic acid may weaken and consolidate after the holiday. The downstream market should pay attention to the follow-up situation in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market price has stopped falling and rebounded since mid September. As of September 26th, the average market price in East China was 4878 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.75% compared to September 11th.

Positive factors such as macro reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts have boosted the commodity market, and the recovery of macro atmosphere has caused resonance in the general rise of the commodity market. In addition, international crude oil has fluctuated and strengthened, providing upward support for PTA costs. As of September 25th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.69 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $72.90 per barrel.

From the perspective of its own supply side, the processing profit in September has been compressed, and multiple PTA units in China have undergone maintenance and load reduction. However, PTA maintenance units have been restarted one after another, which has increased the expectation of loose supply. The operating rate of the domestic industry is around 81%. A 2.5 million ton PTA plant in South China is scheduled for maintenance in October. Considering the high operating rate of PTA capacity, the decrease in processing fees may lead to an increase in unplanned plant maintenance.

Downstream polyester production is slowly increasing, with a seasonal rebound in polyester production rate to over 86% in September. The demand for PTA continues to improve, helping to improve the current PTA supply and demand structure. Textile terminals have started pre holiday stocking activities, and the replenishment sentiment has improved. They actively inquire about prices, but remain cautious and maintain a focus on essential needs. Domestic trade orders fell short of expectations, and due to the impact of Christmas and overseas shopping festivals, foreign trade orders may increase.

Business analysts believe that driven by relatively warm costs, downstream polyester production may continue to rebound, and demand for PTA will continue to improve. In addition, the warming macro atmosphere has boosted the commodity market, and in the short term, PTA prices may experience a narrow range of strong adjustments.

Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: On September 25th, the average market price was 8279.67 yuan/ton.

Analysis: Today, domestic pure benzene prices continue to decline, and the atmosphere of on-site negotiations is currently average. The international crude oil market is fluctuating, with average support for pure benzene. The main focus is on destocking of port inventory, but there is a significant accumulation of inventory in the future, and the market mentality is unstable. Shandong’s local refineries continue to offer discounts to promote spot sales. Prediction: It is expected that the pure benzene market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has been weak and difficult to change, with spot prices of various grades continuing to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 24th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11500 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.81% compared to the price level on September 1st.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: Recently, the load level of the domestic ABS industry has been average. In the early stage, some maintenance capacity resumed work, and the industry’s operating rate has rebounded to around 65%. Recently, it has remained stable in a sideways trend. The overall digestion of on-site goods is slow, while the supply is abundant and the overall inventory is high. Partial stocking demand before National Day has been released, and ABS finished product inventory has decreased by about 10000 tons to about 180000 tons compared to the previous period. Overall, the current supply side has moderate support for ABS spot prices.

Cost factor: As the end of the month approaches, the trend of ABS upstream materials is generally stagnant, and the support effect on ABS cost side is average. The spot trading of acrylonitrile market has slightly improved, and the market price has stopped falling and stabilized. In the latter half of the year, the inventory of acrylonitrile factories continues to decline, and there are maintenance plans for both the north and south units next month. Supply is expected to continue to decrease, giving the market some confidence. But continuing to rise is still not enough, it is recommended to pay attention to the positive news on the ground.

Recently, the butadiene market has been consolidating at a high level. During the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, there was a release of downstream stocking demand before the holiday. Affected by the rise in the synthetic rubber market after the holiday, the mentality of the spot market has improved, and holders have a strong willingness to support prices, leading to an upward trend in mainstream domestic prices. As the National Day holiday approaches, there is a demand for replenishing inventory downstream, and the mentality of the spot market is generally strong. Overall, there are still positive developments in the butadiene market, and it is expected that the short-term trend will be mainly stable, moderate, and strong.

Recently, the styrene market has been fluctuating. Although crude oil has rebounded slightly in recent days, significant fluctuations in the previous market have dragged down the weakness of pure benzene prices, while the cost support of styrene remains at a general level. The supply is relatively abundant, and there is an expectation for short-term memory growth. Domestic demand is relatively stable, and the situation of new orders is average. There is a struggle between long and short positions in the market, and there is limited change in the supply and demand of styrene spot before and after the Mid Autumn Festival. It is expected that the market will continue to organize and operate in the future.

In terms of demand: “Golden September” has entered the end of the month, and the main terminal demand for ABS has not yet shown the peak season level, but instead continues the off-season trend, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The high-temperature holiday for home appliance manufacturers has basically ended, but the overall load position of downstream factories is slowly recovering. The recovery of terminal demand is slow, and stocking operations are mainly based on weak demand to maintain production. Traders lack confidence, have a low willingness to build warehouses, and offer according to market conditions, resulting in a slower flow of goods. Overall, the demand side is not providing strong support to the market.

Future forecast

In late September, domestic ABS prices showed a weak trend. Upstream material sorting is the main focus, with average comprehensive support for ABS cost side. The load of the ABS polymerization plant is stable with small fluctuations, and the finished product inventory is slightly digested. The weak and rigid demand situation on the demand side continues, and market trading remains weak. The mismatch between supply and demand in the market is difficult to change, and due to the influence of multiple bearish factors, the traditional demand peak season expectation in September has not been fulfilled. The market has a bearish attitude towards the future, and it is expected that the ABS market will maintain a weak trend in the short term.

Product Name: Styrene

Latest price: 9210 yuan/ton on September 23rd.

Analysis: According to data from Business Society, the focus of the styrene market is downward today. At present, negotiations in the styrene market are relatively light, with a strong wait-and-see attitude, and downstream factories are purchasing as needed. At present, the crude oil market is mainly volatile, and the short-term impact on promoting the rise of styrene is limited. Recently, there has been an increasing trend in styrene port inventory, and with the approaching of the National Day holiday, the demand for spot goods has relatively decreased. It is expected that the styrene spot market will experience slight fluctuations in the short term.