1、 Price trend
The domestic butadiene market fell again and again this week. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the market price of butadiene in China was 7662 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 6626 yuan / ton at the end of the week, 13.52% lower than that in the week, 18.20% lower than that in the previous week, 32.58% lower than that in the previous year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Products: this week, the domestic butadiene market fell broadly, and some manufacturers in the north and East China were relatively active in export. In addition, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli had some products for export, and the market spot supply increased significantly. However, the downstream latex industry was limited to return to work, and some rubber manufacturers’ devices were affected by the inventory of finished products, which led to the intensification of the basic contradiction between supply and demand of butadiene. In the week, the transaction price of Fushun Petrochemical fell to 5520-5600 yuan / ton. In addition, the supply price of Sinopec continued to decline, dragging the market bearish atmosphere, and the market approached a five-year low. In terms of price, the delivery price in Shandong Province is 6200 yuan / ton, and the price in East China is 7000 yuan / ton. However, in view of the expectation that the price of some export manufacturers will go down further, the market will continue to be bearish in the short term, and there are many lower prices.
In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s supply price of butadiene in East China has been reduced by 1000 yuan / ton to 7000 yuan / ton in total; the price of butadiene in Liaotong chemical industry is 6610 yuan / ton, down 700 yuan / ton, and the weekly sales volume is 338 tons; Fushun Petrochemical’s supply of 390 tons of goods is exported within the week, and the transaction range is 5520-5600 yuan / ton; the load of 70000 tons / year butadiene unit in Jiutai, Inner Mongolia has slightly decreased, and there is no definite quotation for the moment, and the actual delivery order is negotiated; Dalian Hengtai The capacity of 140000 T / a butadiene plant is maintained at a load of 40-50% within a week, and a small number of superior products are exported to Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and the capacity of 200000 t / a butadiene plant is about 50-60% within a week, and some qualified products flow into the downstream factories in the region.
In terms of industrial chain: SBR: this week, the mainstream factory price of domestic SBR sales companies fell, with a drop of 300-400 yuan / ton. The start-up rate of styrene butadiene unit is around 40.90%; the styrene butadiene units of Jihua, Fushun, Lanhua and Bridgestone are all in normal operation; the styrene butadiene unit in Qilu has recently been in negative operation with load around 70%; the two lines of Yangzi styrene butadiene unit have been in negative operation; the styrene butadiene unit in Shenhua has been in negative operation with load down to 70%; the styrene butadiene unit in Weitai has been shut down for maintenance since January 15, and it is planned to restart in the near future; the first line of dynaso in northern Liaoning is currently in operation In addition, Tianjin Lugang, Hangzhou Yibang and Fuxiang chemical SBR plants will continue to be shut down.
Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: this week, the ex factory price of gaoshun cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, a leading domestic sales company, fell by 400 yuan / ton compared with the previous period; in terms of price, the ex factory price of gaoshun cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell to 10400 yuan / ton. The operation rate of domestic high CIS polybutadiene rubber plant dropped to around 5.80%, and the inventory of some production enterprises was high, and the logistics was not recovered yet. After the pressure increased, the operation rate slightly decreased, and the overall operation rate of CIS polybutadiene was still lower than last week.
3、 Future forecast
On the positive side, the price difference between butadiene and synthetic rubber has been widened, and there is no significant negative reduction in the downstream for the time being. The supplier’s low price stimulates the downstream connection. On the negative side, the logistics is limited, the downstream resumption is delayed, the output of butadiene supply end is increased, the downstream finished product inventory is under pressure, some units are under load, and the manufacturer’s inventory and tank farm inventory remain high. With the output of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Dalian Hengli sources of goods, the butadiene spot supply increases, but there is no centralized resumption of work in the downstream in the near future. On the other hand, there are many synthetic rubber manufacturers with devices to reduce the negative news. The contradiction between supply and demand fundamentals in the butadiene market intensifies, and the market is still dragging obviously. In the short term, although the low price supply stimulates the downstream replenishment, under the influence of abundant supply, the butadiene analysts of the business community predict that the decline of domestic butadiene market is difficult to be effectively contained in the short term, and it is suggested to pay attention to the downstream demand follow-up and butadiene supplier price guidance.