1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on September 16 was 11400 yuan / ton, an increase of 2700 yuan compared with the price of 8700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, an increase of 31.03% during the week and 136.68% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The phosphoric acid market continued to rise this week, with an increase of more than 30% within the week, and the price quickly rose to a high level. It is reported that the voltage load of raw yellow phosphorus enterprises is limited, the production capacity is reduced, and the spot tension is intensified. In addition, the relevant notice on energy consumption dual control issued by the national development and Reform Commission recently has boosted the price of raw yellow phosphorus, which has soared, and the highest price has reached 60000 yuan / ton, and one product is difficult to find. The phosphoric acid market is closely followed by the rise due to the strong support of cost. One price a day, and now the quotation of enterprises is basically more than 10000 yuan, The highest price is 18000 yuan / ton, rising to a new height, and the industry has a strong bullish mentality. At present, raw material goods are tight and the price is high, so that phosphoric acid manufacturers have to reduce production and stop production. The tight supply situation in the field continues. Phosphoric acid enterprises suspend quotation more. Watch the price trend of raw materials and hear about the purchase and sale or the need for auction. We can think of the tight supply. Therefore, the short-term phosphoric acid price is easy to rise but difficult to fall. According to the monitoring of the business community, the quotation in Jiangsu is 18000 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is 15000 yuan / ton, that in Guangzhou is about 14000 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 10900-18000 yuan / ton, that in Beijing is 9000 yuan / ton, and that in Fujian is 10800 yuan / ton. The price of phosphoric acid in various places has increased significantly.

Yellow phosphorus, the market price of yellow phosphorus rose this week, yellow phosphorus enterprises limited voltage load, reduced production capacity and intensified spot tension. The price of upstream phosphorus ore and coke increased, and the price of downstream phosphoric acid increased all the way. The downstream began to purchase yellow phosphorus at a high price. The acceptance of high price yellow phosphorus was high. On the whole, the market confidence was good and the upstream and downstream support was strong. It is expected that the market price of yellow phosphorus will continue to rise in the short term.

For phosphate rock, on September 16, the reference price of phosphate rock was 643.33, up 10.92% compared with September 1 (580.00). This year, the market demand for ammonium phosphate continued to improve, giving some support to the demand for phosphate rock. The supply of phosphate rock is still tight in the short term. Therefore, the phosphate rock analysts of business society believe that China’s phosphate rock market will mainly focus on high-level consolidation in the short term.

Ammonium phosphate, the current market situation of Monoammonium is poor. Although the support of raw materials is good, the terminal demand is weak and there is still inventory. The price of monoammonium phosphate is expected to operate weakly and stably in the short term. At present, the external demand for diammonium is acceptable and the domestic market is weak. It is expected that diammonium phosphate will mainly operate stably in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the raw material price is high at present, the phosphoric acid enterprises have low operation due to the cost, the inventory is not under pressure, and the tight supply situation is difficult to recover in the short term. It is expected that the phosphoric acid price is still the main actor above, and we need to pay close attention to the trend of raw material price.

According to the price monitoring data of business society, as of September 15, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8083 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on September 10 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 8033 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 80 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.62%. Compared with the price on September 5 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 7750 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 333 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.30%.

In the first ten days of September, the domestic n-propanol market rose steadily. This week, the domestic n-propanol market trend fluctuated and adjusted slightly. On the 14th, the ex factory price of n-propanol of large manufacturers in Shandong was 7900 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 50 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. The slight upward price had little impact on n-propanol holders. The reference price of n-propanol market in Shandong was around 7800-8000 yuan / ton. On the 15th, Shandong large factory recalled the ex factory price of n-propanol to 7850 yuan / ton, and the overall market fluctuated slightly. Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd., an important domestic n-propanol production enterprise in Jiangsu, currently operates normally. The ex factory quotation of n-propanol refers to 8500 yuan / ton, and the price is the same as that at the beginning of the month. At present, as of the 15th, the domestic market demand for n-propanol is mostly just for procurement, and the market trading atmosphere is normal.

Due to the different actual development of chemical industry in various countries, there are great differences in the application of n-propanol. In China, n-Propyl Acetate is the largest consumption field of n-propanol, and the market demand accounts for about 65%. At present, the overall n-Propyl Acetate Market in Shandong is adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and the quotation of n-Propyl Acetate Market in Shandong is around 9000-9500 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream ethylene, the external market of ethylene has shown an overall upward trend recently. On September 14, FD American Bay quoted us $773-790 / ton in the US ethylene market. Recently, the US ethylene market has been stable and the demand is general. On September 14, according to the European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted us $1225-1235 / ton and CIF northwest Europe quoted us $1168-1175 / ton, up US $1 / ton. On September 14, according to the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted us $1086-1096 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia quoted us $1041-1051 / ton.

Internationally, on September 14, the international oil price was basically flat. On the last trading day, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $70.46/barrel, up US $0.01, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $73.60/barrel, up US $0.09.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the overall performance of the domestic n-propanol market is normal. The downstream just needs to purchase, and it is close to the double festival. The market demand may increase in stages before the festival. Therefore, the analysts of business agency n-propanol believe that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will operate stably and strongly, and more attention needs to be paid to the specific changes in supply and demand.

According to the data monitoring of traditional business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3562.50 yuan / ton on September 1 and 4276.25 yuan / ton on September 14, with a half month increase of 20.04%, an increase of 71.51% compared with the same period last year.

As of September 14, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

region Specifications date offer

Shandong region Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% September 14th 4540 yuan / ton

Hebei region Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% September 14th 4480 yuan / ton

Henan region Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% September 14th 4280-4320 yuan / ton

It is obvious from the trend chart that the dimethyl ether Market was in a tepid stage from early August to early September. However, on September 6, the dimethyl ether market began to rise strongly, and the quotation increased sharply one after another. The ex factory quotation in Henan, the main production area, increased by nearly 20%, and the price was close to 4500 yuan / ton. Taking Henan xinlianxin as an example, the ex factory quotation of Henan xinlianxin dimethyl ether was 3520 yuan / ton on September 5 and 4280 yuan / ton on September 14, with a total increase of 760 yuan / ton.

The sharp rise mainly comes from the raw material methanol market. Due to the influence of dual control, the supply in the mainland is limited, the inventory of enterprises is reduced, the coal price has hit a record high again, the cost support is obvious, the methanol futures price has risen sharply, and the domestic methanol spot market has followed the “soaring man”. The methanol market rose sharply, and the strong futures led the national long sentiment. The inventory of mainstream production plants remained low, the pressure was difficult to show, and there was a demand for goods in the downstream, which supported the market situation in the main methanol production areas to continue to rise sharply. With the strong support of raw methanol, the price of dimethyl ether rose sharply. Secondly, the center of gravity of the liquefied gas civil market has shifted upward, and the supply of Henan xinlianxin has decreased, which has brought certain benefits to the market. In the early stage of the downstream, the market entry is more positive with the buying mentality, but with the rising price, the downstream has limited ability to accept high prices, cautious mentality, and limited improvement of terminal demand, and the market entry enthusiasm is weaker than that in the early stage. On September 14, although the market price in Henan was still rising, the increase narrowed. At present, the upstream inventory is mostly in a controllable state, and the mentality is relatively strong.

In the cost methanol market, the negotiated price in the methanol market in central Shandong increased by 2950-2990 yuan / ton and sent to spot exchange. The price of local methanol factories in central Shandong increased by 3000-3050 yuan / ton, and the transaction was still good. The reference price of methanol market in Dongying, Shandong Province is 2960-3000 yuan / ton, which is delivered to spot exchange, and the trading situation is relatively general. The negotiated price in the methanol market in southern Shandong is 2950 yuan / ton, and the nearby factory provides cash exchange. Linyi receives the local goods to negotiate the price to 2910-2930 yuan / ton and delivers them to cash exchange. There are few Logistics offers. The local supply is tight, but the downstream is at a loss, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods is general. The methanol market in Henan fell slightly, and the on-site trading was acceptable. The bidding transaction price of Henan’s main enterprises fell slightly, and the price refers to 2860-2885 yuan / ton, and the factory withdraws cash exchange; The focus of Luoyang market negotiation fell to 2820-2880 yuan / ton in a narrow range.

At present, the rising cost of methanol and liquefied gas civil market has brought obvious support to the dimethyl ether Market, but the current terminal demand is generally improved, the downstream has limited ability to accept high prices, has a cautious attitude, has a weaker enthusiasm for entering the market than in the early stage, and the manufacturer’s inventory is mostly controllable and has a strong heart. On the whole, the DME market may continue to rise in the short term, but the range has narrowed. We still need to pay attention to the change of raw methanol.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride rose sharply this week. As of September 12, the average price of maleic anhydride by benzene hydrogenation remained at 13000.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.33% compared with the average price of 12000.00 yuan / ton on September 6, and an increase of 16.07% compared with the same period last month.

On September 12, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 122.46, the same as yesterday, down 0.98% from the highest point of 123.67 in the cycle (December 26, 2017), and up 139.27% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The start-up of domestic benzene maleic anhydride market rose slightly this week. International crude oil shocks and domestic chemical prices rise; The operating rate of unsaturated resin in the downstream increased slightly, and the resin market was dominated by weak consolidation and just needed procurement. As of December 12, Shandong solid anhydride was about 12800 yuan / ton, Jiangsu liquid anhydride was about 12800 yuan / ton, Shanxi solid anhydride was about 13000 yuan / ton, Hebei solid anhydride was about 13000 yuan / ton, and South China solid anhydride was about 13000 yuan / ton.

Upstream, boosted by styrene, pure benzene rose sharply this week. On September 5, the average price of pure benzene was 7700 yuan / ton, and on September 12, the average price of pure benzene was 8080 yuan / ton, up 380 yuan / ton, or 4.94%. This week, the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong increased, from 7700 yuan / ton on September 5 to 7910 yuan / ton on September 12, up 210 yuan / ton, or 2.73%. The trend of downstream styrene was strong in the week, the demand for pure benzene was well supported, the inventory in East China continued to decline, and the market mentality was good. Hydrogenated benzene closely follows the trend of pure benzene and is the main price player this week. The price of n-butane fell, and the price in Shandong was 5020 yuan / ton as of September 13.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 36th week of 2021 (9.6-9.10), there are 48 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 11 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 11.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were R22 (17.95%), phosphoric acid (11.30%) and liquid ammonia (10.71%). A total of 15 commodities decreased month on month, and 1 commodity decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 1% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were butadiene (- 6.27%), n-butanol (industrial grade) (- 4.52%) and aniline (- 3.75%). The average rise and fall this week was 1.43%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that at present, the supply of maleic anhydride in the domestic market is limited, some factories are pre sold, there is no inventory pressure in the factories, the supply and demand is good, the price of raw materials is rising, and the cost of the CIS rod market is supported. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may fluctuate at a high level in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 17966.67 yuan / ton on August 10 and 22400.00 yuan / ton on September 10, with an increase of 24.68% in the past month and 13.90% compared with June 1. At present, the market supply of EVA market is limited, and the shortage of goods supports the continuous rise of prices.

As of September 10, the ex factory quotation of EVA is as follows:

product manufactor model Ex factory price

EVA yanshan petrochemical 18J3 22000 yuan / ton

EVA Beijing Organic Y2022 23000 yuan / ton

EVA Beijing Organic Y2045 22400 yuan / ton

EVA BASF Yangzi V5110J 22200 yuan / ton

In the past month, the EVA market trend is strong, and the price has continuously increased sharply, reaching new highs. With the launch of EVA’s new production capacity, the supply price of bidding goods continues to rise, which is good for the market mentality. However, the market supply is insufficient. Due to the recovery of photovoltaic material demand, production enterprises actively adjust the product structure and mainly produce photovoltaic in multiple rows, resulting in tight supply of other sources of goods. Upstream petrochemicals have significantly increased the ex factory price, and the cargo holders are reluctant to sell. At present, the overall market demand is good, the price of raw ethylene has also increased sharply, and the cost of EVA continues to strengthen. Under multiple favorable factors, EVA price remains high. However, the pressure of high cost procurement has increased, and the mentality is more cautious. Most of them just need to follow up. At present, the price of soft materials is 25500-26500 yuan / ton, and the price of hard materials is 23500-24500 yuan / ton.

In the upstream ethylene market, the external ethylene market has shown an overall upward trend recently. The ethylene market price in Asia continued to rise. As of the 9th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at USD 1061-1071 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at USD 1041-1051 / ton. European ethylene market prices fluctuated higher. As of the 9th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1212-1222 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1140-1148 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States fell sharply. As of the 9th, the price was US $773-790 / ton. Recently, the external ethylene market generally showed an upward trend except the United States, with different local demand, and the recent fluctuation of ethylene in Europe is not large. Ethylene continued to rise in Asia.

At present, there are obvious positive factors in the EVA market, supporting the high price of EVA. With the arrival of the “golden nine silver ten”, the EVA terminal industry has ushered in the traditional peak demand season. It is expected that the EVA market is unlikely to decline in the later stage, or continue to be strong and upward.