Weak supply and demand continue, and sulfur market is consolidated weakly

I. price trend

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of sulfur market in East China is 676.67 yuan / ton, up 7.98% month on month. On November 13, the sulfur commodity index was 37.13, unchanged from yesterday, down 64.24% from 103.84 (2011-11-02), the highest point in the cycle, and up 16.69% from 31.82, the lowest point on October 7, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

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II. Market analysis

 

Products: weak domestic sulfur market consolidation, weak downstream demand, weak enthusiasm of terminal market entry procurement, no news on the outside market, port inventory continued to increase instead of decreasing, and the industry was bearish on the future market. At present, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in East China market is about 570-710 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is about 520-680 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of solid sulfur in Shandong market is about 730 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is about 520-600 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of solid sulfur in North China market is 590 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 520-600 yuan / ton.

 

Industry chain: the downstream sulfuric acid market is quiet, the price of acid enterprises is mainly stable, and the market price trend in Shandong is stable. The contradiction between supply and demand in the site remains the same, with strong supply and weak demand, weak and stable trading in acid market, poor mentality of the industry, and parking maintenance of individual acid enterprises, limited support for good news in the market, and expected price stability.

 

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Industry: from the perspective of demand, the supply and demand performance is weak, and the negotiation is stagnant. Port inventory increases, consumption is slow, market trading is still cold, on-demand procurement based, both sides wait for information guidance. Weak domestic sulfur market consolidation, downstream demand has not improved, and the bearish sentiment of the industry on the future market has increased.

 

III. future forecast

 

According to the sulfur analysts of the business society, at present, the sulfur market lacks news support, has no substantial positive factors, and there is no substantial change in demand. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will continue to be weak.

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Methanol market price keeps falling

I. price trend

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market is declining. As of November 12, the average price of the domestic methanol market is 2134 yuan / ton. Prices fell 10.79% month on month and 24.19% year on year.

 

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II. Market analysis

 

Product: the domestic methanol market shows a downward trend, and the mainland and ports have declined to varying degrees. The port continued to be weak in the day, the futures market kept prices down, and spot buying maintained rigid demand. On the mainland market, the wait-and-see mentality was obvious at the beginning of the week. Some enterprises haven’t adjusted their prices yet, and the prices fall down due to poor trading in some regions. It is reported that the port price is low, and some goods flow back to Shandong, which to some extent suppresses the trend of the mainland market. In addition, the northwest guidance price has been lowered this week, so we need to pay attention to the transmission to the mainland market.

 

In terms of freight: the domestic methanol freight has been rising and falling, which has been sorted out recently. The freight from the northern Inner Mongolia line to Lubei is 180-240 yuan / ton; the freight from the southern line to Lubei is 170-210 yuan / ton; the freight from Guanzhong to Lubei is 130-170 yuan / ton, the freight from Guanzhong to southwest of Shandong is 180-200 yuan / ton; the freight from Shanxi to Lubei is 110-150 yuan / ton; the freight from Xinjiang to Lubei is 600 yuan / ton.

 

Industry chain: formaldehyde: Recently, due to limited production due to haze in Shandong formaldehyde market, the trading atmosphere is weak. Among them, near 1020-1500 yuan / ton in Linyi and its surrounding areas, the high-end price is in Zibo area, and the low-end price is below 1000 yuan / ton.

 

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Acetic acid: the domestic glacial acetic acid market was stable at the beginning of the week. After last week’s low price shipment, downstream staged replenishment, the overall inventory of glacial acetic acid enterprises decreased, so the offer is temporarily stable. The downstream market is just in demand and the purchase intention is stable. More attention has been paid to the small devices and export negotiations in Nanjing.

 

Dimethyl ether: the market of dimethyl ether has gradually stabilized, the seller has a certain willingness to support the market, and the downstream purchases on demand. At present, the demand has not improved significantly, and the short-term stability is partially weak.

 

III. future forecast

 

Business club’s point of view: on the positive side, cost: it is reported that the price of natural gas continues to rise in the near future, and the methanol cost in southwest and other places can still be supported. In terms of bad news, port: at present, the port continues to fall under the drive of futures, the port market price is low, some of the spot flows back to Shandong and other places, which to some extent suppresses the mainland market; demand: at present, the traditional downstream demand remains weak, and part of it is affected by environmental protection factors, some of the downstream starts are low, and the demand further weakens; main production area: the northwest guidance price obviously falls, short-term Or transmit to the mainland market; port inventory: the subsequent import volume remains high, and the port delivery speed slows down, the short-term port inventory may still increase. The methanol analysts of the business association predict that the short-term domestic methanol market is dominated by differential finishing, with partial or continuous decline.

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Nitric acid prices fell this week (11.04-11.08)

I. price trend chart of nitric acid Market

 

Nitric acid price curve

 

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

 

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According to the monitoring of business agency, the average weekly price of nitric acid in East China this week was 1716 yuan / ton, while the average weekly price of nitric acid in East China at the weekend was 1683 yuan / ton, down 1.94%.

 

II. Market analysis

 

Products: the price of concentrated nitric acid continued to fall, with the quotation of Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. being 1600 yuan / ton, the price remained stable; Anhui Jinhe Chemical Co., Ltd. being 1650 yuan / ton, the quotation remained stable; Shandong helitai concentrated nitric acid Co., Ltd. being 1800 yuan / ton, the quotation was 100 yuan / ton lower than the last time. Anhui Audley offered 1600 yuan / ton, 150 yuan / ton lower than last week’s offer; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offered 1980 yuan / ton, 40 yuan / ton lower than last week’s offer. The demand of nitric acid market is poor, and the quotation of some enterprises is down.

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Industry chain: liquid ammonia, the raw material of the upstream of nitric acid, is mainly in a weak decline this week according to the monitoring of the business association. Downstream aniline, in Shandong and Nanjing this week, the price of aniline stopped rising and turned down. The market price of aniline in Shandong is 7950 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing is 8400 yuan / ton, down 1.22% compared with last week.

 

III. future forecast

 

The cost support is weak, and the nitric acid market demand is poor. According to the nitric acid analyst of the business association, the nitric acid market will still operate at a low level.

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Isomerized xylene prices rebounded steadily this week (November 2-8)

I. price trend

According to the data in the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic isomeric xylene market rebounded about 2.6% steadily this week due to the support of low port inventory and the rebound of international oil price.

 

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II. Analysis and comment

 

1. Products: compared with last week, the market transaction this week is flat, and the current mainstream price in East China is about 6250 yuan / ton. According to the feedback from traders, last week’s trading volume was average, and the port inventory remained low, about 19000 tons.

 

2. Industrial chain:

 

Upstream, crude oil, this week’s oil price shock correction, spot Brent up 3.63%, Brent futures up 3.39%, WTI futures up 1.56%, Dubai futures up 4.17%.

 

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In the downstream, PX market, the trend of domestic PX price this week is temporarily stable, and the price of external market fluctuates slightly. It is expected that the market price of PX will maintain about 6800 yuan / ton in the short term. In terms of PTA market, domestic PTA prices fell slightly this week, with the average offer price in East China around 4850-4900 yuan / ton, and it is more likely that PTA will continue to maintain a weak trend in the later period. In the ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene price is temporarily stable, with a price of 6200 yuan / ton. The external price of o-benzene fluctuates and falls, and it is expected that the weak price of o-benzene will fall in the future.

 

III. future forecast

 

Xylene analysts from business and Chemical Bureau said: next week, we will continue to focus on the progress of China US trade negotiations and the expected fluctuation of crude oil demand due to the weak prospect of global economic indicators. In general, toluene market is expected to continue the shock correction trend next Tuesday.

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Ammonium sulfate market downturn (10.1-10.31)

I. price trend

 

The market price of ammonium sulphate fell this month, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. On October 1, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulfate was 636 yuan / ton, and on October 31, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulfate was 616 yuan / ton, with a 3.14% drop in price. So far, the ammonium sulfate commodity index on November 5 is 47.56, down 4.04 points from yesterday, 55.25% from the highest point 106.28 (2012-05-24), and 29.77% higher than the lowest point 36.65 on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

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II. Market analysis

 

Products: in October, the main factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 500-700 yuan / ton, that in Henan is about 500-700 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 520-750 yuan / ton, that in East China is 530-600 yuan, and that in North China is 460-550 yuan. Due to the lack of terminal demand, the overall price of domestic coking grade ammonium sulphate was lowered this month, and the price of domestic grade ammonium sulphate was lowered.

 

Industry chain: the domestic sulfuric acid plants run smoothly, the enthusiasm of downstream customers for sulfuric acid procurement rises, and the ex factory price of sulfuric acid rises in the future. Sulfuric acid enterprises often issue early orders, short-term construction is insufficient, and supply is slightly tight. Compound fertilizer enterprises are stuck in consolidation, cost and price decline, and the industry is lack of confidence in the future market. Close to the conference on phosphorus and compound fertilizer, most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude.

 

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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in October 2019, there were 20 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including 8 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 9.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (25.36%), epichlorohydrin (25.33%) and sulfur (19.54%) There are 56 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 29 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 34.5% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are nitric acid (- 30.41%), butadiene (- 19.30%) and acetic acid (- 18.84%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 2.82%.

 

III. future forecast

 

According to analysts of ammonium sulfate of business association, due to insufficient demand of domestic and foreign markets, coking grade ammonium sulfate fell this month, while domestic grade ammonium sulfate fell. In October, the market of ammonium sulfate was weak, and the market trend was not ideal. It is expected that the market of ammonium sulfate in the later period will be dominated by weak shocks.

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