Melamine market is mainly stable this week (6.29-7.3)

1、 Melamine price trend

 

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

Melamine market this week to the main stable, little change. According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of July 3, the average price quoted by melamine enterprises was 5066.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week (June 29). Taking three months as a cycle, the price dropped by 2.56% year on year.

 

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, melamine prices in some regions (for reference only, the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation): the price of melamine in some areas is higher than that in other regions

 

At present, the quotation of melamine in the mainstream area is around RMB 4400 / T in the mainstream area of Sichuan, and the quotation is RMB 4400 / T in the mainstream area of Sichuan. The mainstream quotation of melamine market in Shandong is around 5000 yuan / ton.

 

This week, the operating rate of melamine plant is about 64%, and the demand side is still not significantly improved. The operating rate of downstream terminal is low, and the intention of high-level receiving is not high. Manufacturers mainly carry out orders.

In June, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong area of upstream rose first, then fell and then rose again: the quotation first rose from 1643.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1680.00 yuan / ton on June 13, with an increase of 2.23%, and then fell to 1623.33 yuan / ton on June 25, down 3.37% compared with the quotation on June 13; however, near the end of the month, urea price had a slight rise, and the quotation rose again from 1623.33 yuan / ton on June 25 to June 30 RMB 1643.33/t, up 1.23%, in line with the price at the beginning of the month. On the whole, urea market has ups and downs in June, and has an upward trend at the end of the month. On June 30, the urea commodity index was 76.43, and the price was stable until July 3. The price of liquid ammonia in the upstream has risen slightly recently, which has provided a certain cost support for urea, but the demand for downstream is less. The rubber plate factory and compound fertilizer plant follow up appropriately, and the middlemen are cautious in receiving the goods. The urea price is expected to fluctuate slightly in the future market.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Melamine analysts believe that the current raw material urea market is temporarily stable, the impact of melamine is limited. The downstream demand is weak and the trading atmosphere is general. However, the manufacturers have no inventory pressure. It is expected that the melamine market will remain stable in the short term.

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Demand fell, consolidation after the price of PA6 rose in June

1、 Price trend:

 

According to the data of the business club, the domestic PA6 market was positive in June, and the spot prices of most brands rose. As of June 30, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 from the traders was about 12200.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.48% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

 

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2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

 

The supply of caprolactam in the upstream of PA6 was less in May, and the price rose sharply. In June, the price continued to rise due to tight supply. According to the data of business club, the average ex factory price of caprolactam on June 1 was 9916 yuan / ton, that on June 16 was 10466 yuan / ton, and on June 30 was 10400 yuan / ton, which was 4.87% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month. In the first half of this month, crude oil has strong support for pure benzene, and the external market is stronger, and the price difference between internal and external markets is narrowed, and caprolactam is stronger at the bottom of the market. In the last ten days, the port inventory of pure benzene was high, and the delivery speed was slow, so it was difficult to release the inventory pressure. Shandong refining enterprises inventory increased, pure benzene price fell, caprolactam weakened at the end of the month. It is expected that caprolactam market will fall steadily in the future.

 

In June, the overall price of PA6 was strongly supported by caprolactam upstream. After the price rose, it was running at a high level. The month’s highest point was 12266.67 yuan / ton on the 10th, and since then, business offers have been deadlocked. The so-called market will fall for a long time. Although the increase of overseas plasticizer consumption demand is good for domestic enterprises to remove inventory, the recent follow-up of downstream factory orders is slow. Demand shrinking, plus more inventory, business bearish aftermarket, late offer began to loose. With the downturn of market buying, the domestic market atmosphere turned negative.

 

3、 Future forecast:

 

Business agency analysts believe that: in June domestic PA6 market price mainly, after the spot price of each brand rose, consolidation. The supply of caprolactam in the upstream is tight, and the improvement is limited, but the current disk has fallen down, and the cost side support of PA6 is acceptable. The demand of downstream slicing plants turned weak, and the purchasing strategy was mainly on bargain hunting. The trading volume of PA6 declined. Businesses were generally bearish on the aftermarket and reduced their profits and positions. It is expected that PA6 market will continue to be weak in the near future.

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June pure benzene price should be good, but ushered in a big drop (June 1-June 30, 2020)

1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of the bulk list of business associations, the listed price of pure benzene was 3450-3850 yuan / ton on June 1, and 3120-3500 yuan / ton on June 30 (with an average price of 3330 yuan / ton), which was 270 yuan / ton lower than that on June 1, and 7.5% lower this month. The highest price of this month is from June 11 to 14, with an average price of 3750 yuan / ton; the lowest price is on June 30, with the price of 3330 yuan / ton and the price difference of 420 yuan / ton.

 

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2、 Analysis and comment

 

In the first ten days of this month, the rising trend of pure benzene continued last month, and the operating rate of petrochemical enterprises also increased. Thanks to the gradual improvement of the macro-economic situation, the crude oil market has repeatedly received good news. Driven by the rising cost, pure benzene, as a direct related product of crude oil downstream, also rose. Public health events in foreign countries have improved, and the price of pure benzene in the external market is also rising, forming a favorable support for the domestic market. From June 1 to 10, Sinopec raised the total amount of 250 yuan / ton to 3700 yuan / ton.

 

The operating rate increased, supply increased, and port inventory continued to rise since March, resulting in weak pure benzene Market in the middle of the year. On the 15th, Sinopec’s listing price was lowered by 100 yuan / ton to 3600 yuan / ton.

 

Due to the inventory in the late ten days of the port, as well as the inventory pressure is difficult to release. Downstream market is generally weak, styrene, aniline loss, thus the purchase of pure benzene is also weak. Under the condition of oversupply, the price of pure benzene fell all the way, and the local refining price in Shandong Province was generally low. From June 20 to 30, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was reduced by 300 yuan / ton to 3300 yuan / ton.

 

International crude oil rose in June. Thanks to the macroeconomic recovery and the agreement of OPEC and its allies to extend the current production reduction agreement to the end of July, oil prices generally showed an upward trend in June. In the last ten days of the year, the epidemic situation in the United States did not decrease, but increased. Uncertainty in the second wave of the epidemic situation restricted the rise of oil prices. Compared with May 31, Brent oil price increased by 7.45 USD / barrel, or 21.67%; WTI oil price increased by 3.5 USD / barrel, or 9.77%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent oil price decreased by 37.36%; WTI oil price decreased by 35.26%.

 

At the end of June, the price of external market did not differ much from that at the beginning of the month, and the overall guidance was downward. On June 30, South Korea imported 396.67 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, down 1.33 US dollars / ton, or 0.33% compared with the previous month; and that of East China was 397.5 US dollars / ton, down 9.5 US dollars / ton, or 2.33% compared with the previous month

 

Downstream, styrene: on June 1, the price of styrene in Shandong was 5500 yuan / ton, and 5400 yuan / ton on June 30, with a monthly decrease of 1.82%. The highest price of this month appeared on June 3-4 and 8, with the price of 5600 yuan / ton.

 

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Aniline: on June 1, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4400 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 4500 yuan / ton; on June 30, aniline price in Shandong was 4300 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 4500 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.5% this month. The fluctuation range of aniline price is not large, and the operation is mainly large, stable and small dynamic.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

With the rise of oil prices, the oil fields and drilling platforms that were closed before may resume operation, and the rise of oil prices may slow down. In addition, the U.S. epidemic will continue to affect oil prices further.

 

The atmosphere of the downstream market is weak, and the inventory is overstocked due to the high opening rate of petrochemicals. The short-term oversupply situation is difficult to change. It is expected that the price of pure benzene will break through difficulties in July.

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When can dimethyl ether get out of the weak position?

From June 21 to 30, the market of dimethyl ether was mainly weak. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market on June 21 was 2200.00 yuan / ton, and that on June 30 was 2193.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.30% and a decrease of 3.38% compared with the beginning of the month (June 1).

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Regional specification date mainstream quotation

Mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Shandong area: ≥ 99.0% June 30 2130 yuan / ton

The mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Hebei area: ≥ 99.0% June 30 2200 yuan / ton

The mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Henan Province: ≥ 99.0% June 30 2110-2180 yuan / ton

In late June, the domestic dimethyl ether Market was weak, and the operating rate remained at about 12%. During this period, the atmosphere of DME market transaction was relatively light, Henan as the main production area, the market supply was more sufficient. However, in the traditional off-season, the terminal demand is limited. Although the market operating rate is less than 15%, it is difficult to get out of the weak position. As the main enterprise in Henan market, heart to heart, constrained by the demand, the company began to offer steadily on June 19. The shipping situation is not ideal, and only small orders are purchased in the downstream. At present, the sales pressure of enterprises is great.

 

During the period (June 21-30), the cost of methanol showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The supply of methanol in Central China was at a low level, the inflow of surrounding goods was more, and the price was mainly driven by the surrounding areas. The overall transaction atmosphere of the market was slightly improved, but it was still not ideal, and some fell at the end of the month. Affected by international crude oil during the civil market of liquefied petroleum gas, the price rose first and then restrained, and the price remained weak after the festival. At present, the market of methanol and liquefied gas has limited advantages for dimethyl ether.

 

After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the traffic and transportation restrictions were lifted, and the downstream storage and replenishment demand, and the transaction atmosphere improved. However, the current market supply is sufficient, the terminal market demand is difficult to significantly improve in the short term, the advantages of dimethyl ether Market are hard to find, and it is expected that the weakness will be difficult to change in the short term.

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The rise of industrial chain is no longer, and the bearish psychology of o-benzene price is increasing

Price trend:

 

According to business agency data monitoring, in June, o-benzene Sinopec contract price struggled to rise. In the first ten days of June, the price of o-benzene rose by 100 yuan / ton, and then rose again in the middle of June. However, the rising market was not firm. Sinopec’s price rise in East China and North China was different. The price of o-benzene in North China increased by 200 yuan / ton, and that in East China rose by 100 yuan / ton. After that, the price of o-benzene remained stable. The main reason for the contrast of the market price of o-benzene is that the market has different opinions on the future market of o-benzene, and some customers are bearish on the future market of o-benzene.

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Price trend of raw materials

 

It can be seen from the price trend chart of mixed xylene that since June, the price of mixed xylene has risen first and then decreased, and the cost of raw materials of o-benzene has risen first and then decreased. The price of mixed xylene has risen sharply in the first ten days of June, and then dropped sharply in the middle of June. The price of mixed xylene dropped, the cost of o-benzene decreased, and the market of o-benzene was negative, making the future market of o-benzene bearish.

 

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Trend of downstream products

 

It can be seen from the phthalic anhydride price trend chart that the trend of phthalic anhydride price in the first and second half of June is completely different. The price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply in the first ten days, stabilized in the middle of the year, and decreased slightly in the last ten days. The price support of phthalic anhydride in the first and second half of the year is the main supporting factor for the rise of o-benzene, while the price of phthalic anhydride falls in the last ten days, which increases the negative pressure on the market of o-benzene.

 

Future forecast:

 

According to Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst at the business club, the o-xylene market rose in June, but with the stability of the industrial chain market and a small drop in price, the support for the rise of o-xylene was insufficient and the downward pressure was increased. Although the price of industrial chain products is still at a high level, the downward pressure of o-benzene is increasing, the rising support is weakening, and the market bearish psychology is increasing. It is expected that the market of o-benzene will be bearish in the future.

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