On November 26, the average price of domestic silicon (441) market rose sharply, by 1.35%.

According to the data of business agency, on November 26, the average market price of domestic silicon metal (441) was 13716.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.04% compared with the average market price of 13058.33 yuan / ton on Friday (11.20), 11.37% higher than the average market price of 11650 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 10491.67 yuan / ton compared with the average market price of 7.1 in the year, an increase of 30.74% and 11833.33 yuan / ton compared with the average market price of (1.1) at the beginning of the year, The increase was 15.92%.

The price of 441 silicon in different regions on May 26 is as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 13100-13200 yuan / ton, that of Sichuan is 13500-13600 yuan / ton, that of Kunming is 13500-13700 yuan / ton, that of Shanghai is 14200-14400 yuan / ton, that of Tianjin port is 13800-14000 yuan / ton, and that of Huangpu port is 13700-13900 yuan / ton 。

Recent positive factors

1. The silicon production in Yunnan has been reduced

On the news, Yunnan Dehong silicon plant started to reduce production orderly in the middle and early November due to power restriction factors. The reduction and shutdown of metal silicon factories in Yunnan increased, and the regional output reduction was expected to intensify.

2. Tight spot at trading end

At present, there are not many spot metal silicon stocks available for trading in the market, and the market is in a good situation. The stock holders are not worried about the situation. The willingness of some large manufacturers to raise prices is increased, which encourages the market to be bullish.

3. Strong downstream demand

The demand of downstream aluminum alloy plants is strong, and the price of silicone DMC is soaring, which directly leads to the raw material market. In the near future, the downstream reserve capacity has increased and the demand is strong.

Price of silicone DMC in soaring price

Price list of polysilicon in one of the three downstream markets:

4. The export volume of silicon metal increased in October

According to customs data, the export volume of silicon metal increased by 10.6% year-on-year in 2020.

Future forecast

The rise of downstream price is beneficial to the price of raw materials to a certain extent; combined with the recent tight spot situation, it is expected that the rising state of silicon metal price in the near future will probably continue.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic first-class industrial grade potassium nitrate was quoted at 4100.00 yuan / ton on the 18th, and 4125.00 yuan / ton on the 25th. The current price rose by 0.61% month on month, and the current price fell by 5.17% compared with last year.

Recently, the domestic market of potassium nitrate has increased slightly. Recently, the production of domestic potassium devices is relatively normal. Most downstream factories maintain on-demand procurement, and the inventory is in general. Recently, the price is on the rise. According to the statistics of the business agency, the domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate offer 3900-4400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only). According to different purchasing conditions, the quotations are different.

On November 25, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is 1950 yuan / ton, which is stable temporarily. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. The enthusiasm of downstream procurement is general, and the supply of potassium chloride is normal. Potassium chloride market high and stable, can give potassium nitrate a certain cost support.

In the near future, the price of domestic potassium chloride market is stable, and the production volume is not large. Some small factories have stopped production and the inventory is not high. It is expected that the market of potassium nitrate will rise slightly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on November 24, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) mainstream manufacturers was 13833.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous day, increased by 2.47% compared with the beginning of the month, increased by 2.47% month on month, and decreased by 9.78% compared with the beginning of the year.

2、 Market analysis

On November 24, the salicylic acid market was stable, and the price did not change significantly. The overall transaction atmosphere was good, and the inventory pressure was not great. With the production and sales, after the price adjustment in the early stage, the shippers kept the price stable and shipped, and looked at the market. The trading center of gravity slightly increased, and the enterprise’s mentality was positive and the trend was firm. As of November 24, the quotations of salicylic acid industrial enterprises are mostly in the range of 10000-15000 yuan / ton, the quotations of pharmaceutical grade are mostly in the range of 23000-25000 yuan / ton, and the quotations of sublimation level are mostly in the range of 15000-20000 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is mainly through negotiation, and the quantity is preferred.

For raw material phenol, on November 24, there were few traders offering in the morning, and the wait-and-see mood increased. Sporadic offers ranged from 6550 yuan / T to 6600 yuan / T, and there were also some high-level reports to the holders, who intended to continue to push up the offer, but the actual order situation has not yet progressed. The volume is small, traders actively ship goods in the early stage, almost no goods are in hand near the end of the month, and a small amount of goods arrive at the port. The business association predicts that the short-term high level is stable, and the market still needs to pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

3、 Future forecast

Salicylic acid analysts of the business agency believe that: at present, the price of salicylic acid has no obvious change, the overall trading atmosphere is good, the shippers keep the price stable, wait and see the market, the trading center of gravity slightly rises, the enterprise mentality is positive, the trend is strong, and the market is stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, aniline prices rose on Wednesday and weekend this week. On November 15, the price of aniline in Shandong was 6500-6700 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 6700-6800 yuan / ton; on November 22, the price of aniline in Shandong was 7200-7400 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 7400 yuan / ton, an average increase of 10.55% over last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, the main factor influencing the trend of pure benzene is styrene. On Monday, the total inventory of styrene in East China fell sharply, which led to short covering, and the price of pure benzene rose with styrene. However, with the shutdown of some styrene downstream units, bulls actively took profits and the focus of negotiation fell. In addition, styrene futures fell one after another, and pure benzene fell with it. On Monday, Sinopec’s pure benzene price increased by 200 yuan / ton to 4200 yuan / ton. This Sunday (November 22), the listed price of pure benzene was 4150-4550 yuan / ton (the average price was 4216 yuan / ton), up 196 yuan / ton or 4.88% compared with last week.

Nitric acid rose widely this week. On Friday (November 20), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 1800 yuan / ton, up 183.33 yuan / ton, or 11.34%, compared with last week.

Downstream demand for goods, aniline enterprises inventory decline within the week, the market spot supply is tight, prices rose. At present, aniline price is mainly affected by the relationship between supply and demand. In the week, pure benzene rose first and then fell, while aniline rose step by step.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, short-term styrene will continue to affect the pure benzene market. Styrene is expected to go to the warehouse at the wharf next Monday, which will support the spot price. However, with the arrival of the traditional off-season, the downstream demand will be weakened. It is difficult to remove inventory of pure benzene in the whole year, but the downstream profit level is good, which supports the price of pure benzene. Next week, pure benzene is expected to follow styrene shock finishing.

It is expected that the short-term impact on aniline will be small. Pay attention to the inventory and downstream demand of aniline enterprises. It is expected that aniline will consolidate at a high level next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data from business agency, the domestic mainstream styrene prices rose first and then declined slightly this week, slightly higher than on Friday. On Monday (November 16), the sample enterprise price of business agency was 9266.67 yuan / ton, while the price of sample enterprises on Friday (November 20) was 8900.00 yuan / ton, down 3.96. Prices rose 18.93 per cent from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Styrene market prices fell after rising this week. On November 16, East China styrene closed near 9400 yuan / T, on November 20, 8900 yuan / ton, down by 500 yuan / T, above is Zhangjiagang out of tank price. On November 16, South China styrene closed at 9700-9800 yuan / ton to be delivered, on November 20, 9550-9600 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / T, and the above factories delivered the price. In general, styrene fell after rising this week, and overall it was in the reverse “V” trend.

In terms of raw materials, crude oil fluctuated broadly in the week, and the overall price rose. The price of pure benzene rose first and then fell, following the trend of styrene. At the beginning of the week, the price of pure benzene was higher due to the sharp increase of styrene, which fell on the 17th, and that of pure benzene also fell. Because of the lack of substantial improvement in demand, the market trading atmosphere turned to cautious and wait-and-see, and the price fell slightly in the later period. As of Thursday (November 19), the mainstream price of pure benzene was 4246.5 yuan / ton, up 266.5 yuan / ton, or 6.68% compared with 3980.00 yuan / ton on Friday (November 13).

On the ethylene side, ethylene prices continued to rise this week as ethylene supply in Asia was tight. As of Friday (November 20), the mainstream quotation of ethylene was 801.75 yuan / ton, up 44.75 yuan / ton, or 5.91% compared with 757.00 yuan / ton on Friday (November 13)

In terms of inventory, the total inventory of East China continued to decline sharply this week, with the total inventory of 128300 tons this week, down 24.08% from 169000 tons last week. In domestic styrene, the styrene commencement rate this week has slightly decreased, with the average starting rate of 84.83% last week and a decrease of 3.12& 81.71% this week. The inventory of enterprises remained low, and market supply expectations continued to decline.

Downstream, the downstream styrene rose significantly this week, and still maintained considerable production and sales profits.

In the PS market, the main ex factory quotation of East China PS as of Friday (November 20) was 9000.00 yuan / ton, up 900 yuan / ton, or 11.11% compared with 8100.00 yuan / ton on Friday (November 13). The PS market is mainly affected by the soaring of styrene raw materials and the sharp increase of PS factory price. In addition, the market has not many supply sources, and the merchants are more firm in quotation.

In EPS market, the main ex factory quotation of EPS in East China as of Friday (November 20) was 9675.00 yuan / ton, up 1000 yuan / ton, or 11.53% compared with 8675.00 yuan / ton on Friday (November 13).

In the ABS market, the main ex factory quotation of ABS Zhejiang as of Friday (November 20) was 19850.00 yuan / ton, up 1350 yuan / ton, or 7.3% compared with 18500.00 yuan / ton on Friday (November 13). This week, the domestic ABS market price has risen significantly, on the one hand, driven by the rise of styrene price and the shortage of styrene supply, on the other hand, stimulated by the national favorable consumption policy, the South China region hyped the market, and the ABS market price rose sharply.

3、 Future outlook

It is expected that the wharf will still go to the warehouse next Monday, which will support spot prices, reduce the profits of the downstream part, shrink the demand of traditional off-season terminal, and continue to reduce production in the downstream. On 19, the styrene futures jumped high and futures returned to their original sources. Overall, under the weak trend of spot strong futures, styrene follows the trend of futures, and it is expected that styrene will fluctuate broadly next week.