September has passed two-thirds, the three varieties of PE spot market are quite interesting, the overall trend is first up and then down. The main reason for the price increase in the first ten days is the shortage of LDPE goods. Petrochemical enterprises have raised the ex factory prices by a large margin, and the high-pressure varieties have risen rapidly, which is the peak since 2020. The other two major varieties of LLDPE and HDPE market are dominated by this positive. But after the middle of September, the high price of PE spot market is difficult to keep, the price is loose, and the three varieties have different degrees of decline.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 9837.50 yuan / ton on September 1 and 10187.50 yuan / ton on September 21, with an increase of 3.56% and 17.95% compared with August 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 7533.3 yuan / ton on September 1 and 7500.00 yuan / ton on September 21, with a decrease of 0.44% and an increase of 4.65% compared with August 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 8600.00 yuan / ton on September 1 and 8566.67 yuan / ton on September 21, a decrease of 0.39% and an increase of 5.76% over August 1.

Regional variety manufacturers rose and fell from September 1 to September 21

East China LLDPE 7042 Jilin Petrochemical Company 7500 yuan / ton 7500 yuan / ton 0

East China LLDPE 7042 Daqing Petrochemical Company 7500 yuan / ton 7500 yuan / ton 0

East China LLDPE 7042 Dushanzi Petrochemical Company 7500 yuan / ton 7500 yuan / ton 0

East China LDPE 2426h Daqing Petrochemical 9800 yuan / ton 10150 yuan / ton + 250 yuan

East China LDPE 2426h Lanzhou Petrochemical 9800 yuan / ton 10150 yuan / ton + 250 yuan

East China HDPE 5000S Daqing Petrochemical Company 8600 yuan / ton 8600 yuan / ton

East China HDPE 5000S Lanzhou Petrochemical Company 8600 yuan / ton 8600 yuan / ton

In early September, PE market continued to rise and LDPE returned to the era of 10000 yuan

The PE market rose sharply in late August, mainly due to the high-voltage market. Due to the large number of domestic equipment maintenance, and the import source can not be unloaded at the port, the supply of goods is tight. Large petrochemical plants have continuously raised the ex factory prices, and LDPE has risen rapidly. In September, LDPE, LLDPE and HDPE in East China showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with different ranges. Among them, the range of high-voltage products is the most prominent.

At the beginning of September, the PE spot market continued the upward trend in August and continued to take the lead. Among them, the high-pressure market is still the most obvious one, with a continuous price increase of 9.34% in the first five days of the month. LLDPE and HDPE market continued to follow the rise, but the range was not as prominent as LDPE. Subsequently, due to the negative factors in the market, the rise of PE market was limited, and the high price stable mode was opened. High pressure market for nearly 8 consecutive days, until September 13 loose. However, it is not easy for LLDPE and HDPE market to remain stable, and the decline is earlier than that of high pressure.

It’s not easy to keep stable, PE market has declined after the middle of the year

Since the end of last ten days, the PE market has declined to varying degrees. As can be seen from the above trend chart, LDPE prices are relatively strong, but LLDPE and HDPE have fallen to the prices before September 1. Due to the early high-pressure wire drawing rising too fast, this fall has become inevitable. Before the PE market fell, international crude oil has been in a continuous decline state, bringing obvious pressure on the market. And the futures market shocks downward, affecting the market mentality. Under the sufficient supply of domestic market, it is difficult for PE spot market to keep stable, and the offer fell.

At present, the market is still good. In terms of demand, September ushered in the peak season, with the increase of manufacturers’ orders, and the overall trading atmosphere of spot markets around the spot was improved, and the demand increased. Most traders are preparing for the coming National Day holiday, and the external price keeps rising, and the import price is supported to some extent. The operator’s mentality is good, the ability to receive goods is fair.

International crude oil rebounds sharply, good news for PE market

On September 16, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market rose sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at $40.16/barrel, up $1.88 or 4.90%. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, the main contract settlement price to 42.22 US dollars / barrel, up 1.69 US dollars or 4.16%. The sharp rise in oil prices was mainly due to the sharp decline in US crude oil and gasoline stocks, and the superposition of Hurricane “Sally” forced a large number of us oil production to be blocked.

Upstream ethylene external market has a strong recent rise

Due to the rebound of international crude oil, ethylene market ushered in a sharp rise, which brought certain support to the PE market. Asian ethylene market prices rose, as of the 17th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at $805-815 / T, CFR Southeast Asia closed at $755-765 / T. The European ethylene market price fluctuated and consolidated. As of the 17th, the European ethylene market price was FD, northwest Europe closed at 687-698 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at 673-685 US dollars / ton. Ethylene prices in the U.S. rose to $523-535 per ton as of the 17th. Generally speaking, the ethylene market in Europe and the United States is on an upward trend. The demand for ethylene in the whole market is good, and the market continues to rise.

Futures market shock down mainly to the spot support is limited

On September 21, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2101 was 7375, the highest price was 7470, the lowest price was 7330, the closing price was 7425, the previous settlement price was 7365, the settlement price was 7410, up 60, or 0.81%, the trading volume was 267189, the position was 251755, and the daily increase was – 3565. (unit: yuan / ton)

PE market is easy to rise but difficult to fall

Although there are few maintenance enterprises in the market and the supply continues to grow slightly, most of the PE market stops falling and stabilizes. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of “gold, silver and ten”, the greenhouse film industry in the North has entered the peak season. The operating rate of downstream factories is gradually increasing, and the demand is still expected to increase. Moreover, the futures market and international crude oil rebounded, bringing certain benefits to the market. PE market is expected to continue the horizontal adjustment in the short term. In the long run, the market is easy to rise but difficult to fall.

International crude oil prices rebounded after the overall bottom stabilized, but the upward range was limited. However, the traditional demand peak season of “golden nine silver ten” asphalt market does not support the asphalt price. The price of domestic asphalt is rising steadily. According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, the asphalt price was reported to be 2405 yuan / ton on September 18, which was 0.42% higher than that at the beginning of the month.

Affected by the hurricane, crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico region declined for a short time. EIA data showed that the U.S. crude oil inventory decreased significantly, stimulating the rebound of international crude oil prices. However, Saudi Arabia lowered the official price of crude oil and faced the risk of a second outbreak in the world, resulting in weak market demand and limited increase in international oil prices.

The recent rainfall in Northeast, southwest and other regions has limited the rigid demand for asphalt; the weather in North China, central China and Northwest China is sunny, and the demand for asphalt driven by some projects is relatively stable. Although the market has entered the “golden nine silver ten” traditional demand peak season, due to the excessive supply, the market continues to be in a state of oversupply. At the same time, the international oil price rebound is not strong enough, the market bullish confidence support is insufficient, and the downstream stock is cautious.

This week, the domestic asphalt plant operating rate was 67%, a slight increase of 2% compared with last week. The asphalt plant operating rate continued to maintain a high level, and the refinery asphalt supply was sufficient.

According to the analysts of business agency, the rebound of international crude oil market is limited, and the upward trend of crude oil price is weak. However, in the peak season of “golden nine silver ten” asphalt traditional demand, the asphalt price is supported, and it is expected that the asphalt price will rise steadily.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China on September 14 was 533 yuan / ton, and that on September 18 was 536 yuan / ton. The price rose by 0.63% this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic price of ammonium sulfate is stable and small. The main ex factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 550-650 yuan / ton, that of Henan Province is 530-580 yuan / ton, that of Hebei Province is 470-530 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Province is 520-570 yuan / ton, that of East China is 550-650 yuan / ton, that of North China is 500-650 yuan / ton The main ex factory quotation of ammonium sulfate is 520-630 yuan / T.

This week, the downstream compound fertilizer market operating rate is low, the market is not good. Due to the support of raw material price, the price of compound fertilizer is firm. Compound fertilizer enterprises have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the overall operation is weak.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency ammonium sulfate analysts believe that the current domestic demand for coking grade ammonium sulfate Market is weak, and the market is mainly small shocks. The export of inner grade ammonium sulfate is stable and more orders are executed. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will fluctuate slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

As of September 15, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 14833.33 yuan / ton, up and down 10.64% month on month and 2.2% compared with the same period last year,

As of September 15, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 15566.67 yuan / ton, up 2.19% from last Tuesday, down 5.66% month on month and 38.15% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In recent days, the raw material trichloroethylene has been rising violently. The price of R134a continues to rise, while R22 remains stable and waits for the market. In September, R134 rose by 1.11% in the first week, then continued to rise, rising by 3.32% in half a month, with the center of gravity moving up. R22 due to the early pull up too fast, the demand follow-up is not enough, the uplink is blocked, after the callback, it remains stable and wait-and-see market. And other refrigerant models are still the main behavior, the market is not optimistic. At present, the demand side continues to be weak, the air conditioning market demand is less than expected, the orders are scarce, the export market has not improved significantly, the car market industry is still light, the demand side has no positive stimulation, the enterprise shipping pressure is increasing, the business attitude is slightly pessimistic, the market as a whole is still weak.

R134a, the raw material of trichloroethylene, has risen sharply recently, bringing vitality to the sluggish market. The market of refrigerant R134a has been rising rapidly, and has been actively adjusted to rise by more than 3% in half a month. However, the support of demand side is insufficient, the demand of downstream car factories is less, and the export is also poor. The ability to take delivery of R134a, which suddenly rises sharply, is insufficient, and the enterprises are in general in shipment. At the same time, there is abundant supply in the market, and there are plans for new production capacity to enter the market. The contradiction between supply and demand may deepen. Some enterprises have the phenomenon of cost inversion, and the future market situation is still not optimistic. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of September 15, the prices of mainstream manufacturers in refrigerant R134a market are about 15000-16000 yuan / ton, and the market transaction price is about 14500-15000 yuan / ton, and the transaction center has moved up.

R22, the price of refrigerant R22 has been temporarily stable recently. The prices of raw materials such as fluorite, hydrofluoric acid and chloroform have declined to varying degrees. The support force on the cost side is weakened. The performance of air conditioning and after-sales market on the demand side is poor. Generally, March to June is the peak season for air-conditioning production, and april-7 is the peak season for maintenance market. After the peak season, the demand decreases sharply. At the same time, affected by the new energy efficiency, the demand side is even worse. The atmosphere of market transaction is light, and the pressure on manufacturers to ship goods is increased, It fell more than 6% in September and half. As of September 15, the prices of mainstream manufacturers in refrigerant R22 market were 14000-16500 yuan / ton, and the market transaction price was about 13500-14500 yuan / ton, which showed a steady decline.

The price trend of fluorite in the upstream and domestic fluorite market fluctuated. Recently, some manufacturers reported that the goods were not in good condition, the downstream demand was not improved, and the fluorite price changed little. Domestic fluorite manufacturers have been operating stably, the on-site mines and flotation devices have been operating normally, and the fluorite in the yard is not well stocked, and the market price of fluorite is slightly lower. As of the 15th, the mainstream of fluorite negotiation in China was RMB 2550-2900 per ton

For hydrofluoric acid, on September 15, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 7700-8300 yuan / T, and the ex factory price of domestic manufacturers dropped slightly. The domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers had a general operating rate, and the supply of goods on site was normal. Affected by the decline of fluorite price, however, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry was not good, and the on-site purchase was mainly based on demand. It is expected that the on-site price would be reduced in the future.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of the business agency, the current R134a market is picking up and the price is going up, but the raw material side tends to stabilize after rising, and the superimposed demand is not good, so it is expected to maintain stable operation in the short term; R22 demand is sluggish, and manufacturers’ shipment is not so good, and there is still a risk of falling in the future market.

It rose 12.82% in half a month to its highest level in five months

After half a year, the DME market finally met the expectations and successfully reversed. The rising market lasted for half a month. The current price has risen to the highest point in five months. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market on September 1 was 2210.00 yuan / ton, and on September 14 it was 2493.33 yuan / ton, up 12.82% in half a month and 5.35% higher than that on August 1.

The first week of September pushed up slightly, and the second week pulled up sharply, successfully overturning the market

Although there was no obvious increase in the market in September, there was no obvious increase in market demand in September. It wasn’t until the beginning of the second week that there was a big pull. Before that, due to the influence of seasonal factors, terminal demand was slow, and dimethyl ether had been in a fluctuating downward trend. The rise can be described as a successful reversal. The reasons for the rise come from two points. First, as the off-season in August has passed, September has entered the traditional sales peak season. With the gradual decrease of weather and temperature, the terminal demand is expected to improve, and the news is good for the market mentality. The second is also the main reason, which is that the upstream methanol rose sharply in September. The sharp rise in costs has brought obvious support to the market. Under this pressure, most manufacturers have a strong mentality and take advantage of the situation to push up prices. Downstream buy up not buy down the mentality of entering the market is more positive, market trading atmosphere is good, manufacturers shipping smoothly.

As of September 14, the factory prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

Regional specification Date Quotation

Mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Shandong area: ≥ 99.0%, 2490 yuan / ton

The mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Hebei area: ≥ 99.0%, 2470 yuan / ton on September 14

The mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Henan Province: ≥ 99.0% September 14 2430-2555 yuan / ton

Taking Henan xinlianxin, the main production area, as an example, the ex factory price of dimethyl ether was 2220 yuan / ton on September 1, increased by 20 yuan / ton every day from September 4 to 7, and the quotation was 2300 yuan / ton on September 7, with an increase of 80 yuan / ton in the first week. The second week continued to raise the ex factory price. On September 14, the price was 2490 yuan / ton, which was 270 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month. Hebei region and Shandong region were also affected by this positive, followed by the rise, September 9, Hebei Jichun device maintenance, market supply decreased.

Cost methanol market went up sharply in September, which brought obvious support to dimethyl ether Market

In the first week of September, the domestic methanol market showed an obvious upward trend, and some manufacturers raised the ex factory quotation several times in the week, with the range of 50-80 yuan / ton. During the week, the external quotation of methanol rose sharply, with the closing price of methanol in the US Gulf rising by 5 cents / gallon to 74.75-75.25 cents / gallon; the closing price of methanol in Rotterdam on FOB was 199.5-200.5 euro / ton, up 9 euro / ton; the closing price of CFR China methanol was 179-181 US dollars / ton, up 5 US dollars / ton; the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol was 239-241 US dollars / ton, stable. The quotation of methanol market in various regions has also increased to varying degrees, among which Shandong and Shanxi regions have obvious upward trend. The main factors of this week’s price rise are the positive futures driven, as well as the favorable impact of the recovery of downstream demand.

In the second week of September, the domestic methanol market continued to rise, with a slowdown compared with last week. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol market was 1725 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 1805 yuan / ton at the weekend, with an increase of 4.64% during the week, an increase of 11.25% on a month on month basis, and a decrease of 13.97% year-on-year. At the beginning of the week, affected by the strong trend of futures, the quotation of methanol market in various regions also went up to varying degrees, among which the rise in Shandong and Shanxi was obvious. At the end of the week, with the crude oil plummeting, the chemical products prices generally fell, and the high quotation of methanol market dropped. Some production enterprises temporarily shut down their devices, and the enterprise shipment was fair, and the manufacturer’s offer was firm. The methanol analysts of the business club predict that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

In the future, DME market is easy to rise but difficult to fall

Although the cost has risen, the liquefied gas, which has the same impact on the market, has declined in a weak way. The traditional peak sales season has arrived, but the terminal demand is not obvious, the consumption is still slow, and the sharp drop of international crude oil depresses the market mentality. Although CP rose in September, its positive effect is limited. The downstream needs to supplement, the enthusiasm of entering the market is not high, and it is mainly cautious to wait and see. Manufacturers shipment is not smooth, inventory is increasing, successive price reduction, shipment based. At present, the cost market is still strong, but the continuous decline of liquefied gas for civil use has some restraint on dimethyl ether. At present, the slow increase of demand in the terminal market is still the main difficulty for the rise. In the future, the dimethyl ether Market is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term. However, the trend of civil gas needs to be paid attention to when the specific increase range changes.