1、 Price trend
According to the data of business club’s block list, the price of pure benzene continued to rise this week. On June 13, the price of pure benzene was 7600-7750 yuan / ton (average price 7730 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (June 20), the price of pure benzene was 7603-7800 yuan / ton (average price 7750 yuan / ton), with an average price increase of 60 yuan / ton or 0.78% compared with last week; It was 112.33% higher than that of the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
This week, after the price of pure benzene rose, the price of Sinopec’s pure benzene remained stable at 7750 yuan / ton. Domestic pure benzene prices continued to rise, boosted by the continuous rise of crude oil and low pure benzene port inventory. Within the week, the inventory of pure benzene in the main port of East China dropped to below 80000 tons. But at present, most of the downstream products are at a loss, and the follow-up of pure benzene slows down, limiting the rise.
In terms of external market, the reference price of pure benzene in South Korea market on Friday (June 18) was 935 US dollars / ton, up 12 US dollars / ton, or 1.3%, from June 11; The import reference price of East China was 960 US dollars / ton, which was flat on June 11.
In terms of crude oil, the market is optimistic about the recovery of crude oil demand, and the overall trend of international oil prices is upward. However, the strong US dollar exchange rate during the week depressed oil prices.
Downstream: styrene: the price of styrene fell this week. On June 18, the price of sample enterprises was 8800 yuan / ton, down 1.68% from last week, and up 61.47% from the same period last year.
Aniline: part of the plants in the yard maintained load reduction operation. During the Dragon Boat Festival, the supply of Jinling aniline plant in the parking and maintenance yard continued to decrease, and the price of aniline continued to rise under the favorable support. On June 18, the price of aniline in Nanjing was 9600 yuan / ton, while that in Shandong was 9400-9580 yuan / ton, with an average price increase of 5.58% over last week, 3.65% over the beginning of the month, 19.83% over the beginning of the year, and 108.82% over the same period last year.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, the outlook for crude oil demand is good and upward momentum still exists, but uncertainty may restrict the rise of oil prices. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the global epidemic, OPEC +’s latest decision on production reduction, global economic data, US crude oil and refined oil inventories, US dollar exchange rate, etc.
Downstream: styrene, the main downstream product: the rise of crude oil has a certain support for styrene, but the downstream demand is weak and the psychology of waiting to fall is strong.
Internationally, the recovery of crude oil is promising; External price volatility. In China, the pure benzene units that were overhauled in the early stage have been restarted one after another, and the supply may gradually pick up, but the on-site supply is still in a tight situation in the short term. Downstream: some downstream products are losing money, and the enthusiasm for pure benzene follow-up is not high. Overall, it is expected that the pure benzene will continue to fluctuate next week, with the possibility of decline. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market (mainly styrene inventory, demand changes), domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, external market trends on the price of pure benzene.