Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of September 11, the average price of silicone DMC market in several mainstream areas monitored by data was 2 1133.33 yuan/ton. Compared with September 10, the price of silicone DMC market rose by 34 yuan/ton, up by 0.16%. Today, the price of silicone DMC market is around 20 700-21 500 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Prior to the Mid-Autumn Festival, the market of silicone DMC turned slightly in mid-week (September 11), some low-price suppliers’quotations have been retracted, the single factory’s bid mentality has been strengthened again, the double-section is coming, 20-25 this month, some single devices have a full-line parking plan, so there is no short-term inventory. There will be a significant rise, downstream enterprises may have a certain willingness to stock up before the holidays, so the market sentiment has risen again, monomer factories have increased DMC quotations. At present, the lowest quotation of silicone DMC market is around 20700 yuan/ton (water outlet), and the highest quotation is around 21800 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: Silicone DMC downstream products, silicone oil and silica gel prices are also explored in a narrow range, 107 gel prices are still strong, some enterprises increase their quotations, heard that in the market, low inventory holders are increasing their quotations by 1000 yuan/ton, the bullish sentiment of major manufacturers is increasing, still need to pay more attention to the market transaction information.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that: in late September, whether the market of silicone DMC can rise all the way remains to be seen, and the specific rise and fall is also closely related to the uncertain market environment upstream and downstream supply and demand.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of September 10, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market was 13025 yuan/ton, which was 4.23% lower than the previous year and 18.93% lower than the previous year. The overall market began to decline.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic aggregate MDI market slightly declined, low prices continue to be heard, the market is gloomy atmosphere. Near the weekend last week, continued weakness, insufficient confidence in the future market, occasional negotiations between intermediaries with very low prices, due to cost pressures, agents shipment slightly cautious, more stable quotations, rare turnover. This week, Koth’s guidance price remained superficially stable. However, the market was informed that the prices of some manufacturers to some agents have been lowered. The overall market atmosphere is low, which is difficult to be favorable. Other factories remained silent, expecting short-term aggregate MDI market prices to continue to weaken, near the Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, the market is difficult to show inventory, waiting for the pre-festival and downstream stocks and manufacturers.

On the market side, the South China Polymerization MDI market is weak and volatile, the atmosphere in the venue is depressed, the turnover is not smooth, the vendors offer low delivery, and some low prices are heard. East China Polymerization MDI market is narrow and weak, the overall atmosphere in the field is depressed, there is a shortage of turnover, traders negotiate shipments, a small number of low-price hearings. North China aggregate MDI market is weak and volatile, the overall atmosphere is not good, there is a shortage of turnover, the business talks about low-end yield shipment, a small number of low-price discounts heard.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: pure benzene US dollar plate rose sharply, the price gap between domestic and foreign is large, supporting domestic market prices. Shandong’s market is partly refining up, the mainstream is between 5400 and 5550 yuan/ton, and low prices are hard to find in the market. Pure benzene factory stock is normal, high price shipment is general.

Aniline: Due to the increase of cost pressure, and some downstream purchasing stocks, the tentative increase of aniline factory by 100 yuan/ton. Due to the influence of downstream production restriction and short stock-up period, the digestion and increase of aniline Market are dominant. The mainstream negotiation price in North China refers to 6230-6430 yuan/ton, while that in East China refers to 6400-6500 yuan/ton acceptance.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperatives Perspective: Business Cooperatives aggregate MDI analysts predict that short-term domestic aggregate MDI market prices continue to weaken, near the Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, the market is difficult to show inventory, waiting for the pre-festival and downstream stock and manufacturer dynamics.

Price Trend

The phenol Market in China rose rapidly in September. In just a few working days, the factory in East China rose 4% and the market rose 4.4%. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the market offer in East China was 7600 yuan/ton on the 2nd day (7550 yuan/ton listed by East China Petrochemical Company). Up to now, the market offer in East China has risen to 8000 yuan/ton.（ East China Petrochemical is listed at 7800 yuan/ton.

II. Analytical Review

Products: Domestic phenol market boomed rapidly in September, with an increase of 50 yuan/ton to 7550 yuan/ton in East China, followed by a further increase of 150 yuan/ton to 7800 yuan/ton last weekend. During the same period, Lihuayi in North China and Shandong implemented 7900 yuan/ton. However, the market continued to be optimistic and TRADERS’mentality was positive. Up to now, all the markets have quoted as follows. Next: The mainstream reference offer in East China is 8000 yuan/ton, Yanshan is 8100 yuan/ton, Shandong is 7950 yuan/ton, Henan is 8200 yuan/ton, and South China is 8100 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: Pure Benzene: Pure Benzene Inventory in East China has fallen again, and the supply of market resources is on the tight side, forming a favorable support for the price of pure benzene. According to the data from the business associations’list, the price of pure benzene in China increased by 100-250 yuan/ton last week. The highest price of pure benzene appeared on Friday (September 6). The price ranged from 5300 to 5550 yuan/ton, up 3.05% from last week.

Propylene: The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong increased by 50-100 yuan/ton on September 1, 2, and only a few enterprises increased on March 5. At present, the market turnover is about 7650-7750 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is about 7650 yuan/ton. Propylene stocks in Shandong are still low and supply is tight. Recently, domestic propylene (Shandong) market prices continued to rise.

Supply and demand: Last week, phenol and ketone enterprises started construction stably at 80%, the start-up rate of Bluestar Harbin 150,000 tons/year phenol and ketone plant has increased, and Shanghai Xisa Chemical Industry 400,000 tons/year plant resumed production at the beginning of the month. The total port stock is 354 million tons, which is relatively high. The downstream domestic BPA is relatively stable, with the addition of new profitable Huayi devices; phenolic resin and other downstream multi-order purchases increase the search, but relatively resist the high price of hoarding less.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the other hand, the import cost is relatively high, the intention of low-price delivery is not strong, and traders are reluctant to sell. On the negative side, the port’s inventory is relatively high, and the downstream factories are stable as a whole, the demand has not increased significantly, and the factories are relatively resistant to high prices. Business associations expect the domestic phenol Market to continue its high level this week. It is difficult to ascertain the upward space. They expect an offer of 8000-8150 yuan per ton in East China.

Market Review

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the market of dichloromethane in Shandong Province rose sharply this week. The average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province was about 2680 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2830 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with a sharp increase of 5.6% in the week.

quotations analysis

Products: This week, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province has risen sharply. Enterprises are gradually restoring to normal. Inventory pressure is not high. Lower-stream traders often pick up goods on demand, and the atmosphere of market negotiation is still acceptable. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 2700-2830 yuan/ton; that in East China is about 2850-3050 yuan/ton; and that in Liwen, Jiangxi is about 3100 yuan/ton. In terms of plant start-up, Jinling in Shandong Province started normal construction, about 60% of chemical industry in Western Shandong Province, Jiangsu Science and Culture Plant started normal construction, and 90% of Jiangxi Science and Culture Plant started construction.

Industry chain: In the upstream, the natural gas market gradually warmed up this week, with a slight increase in price. The average price at the beginning of the week was 2990 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 3056 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 3.53%. The supply of liquid chlorine market was tight, the stock level in the industry was low, and the ex-factory price of mainstream enterprises was raised. At present, enterprises reported 500-600 yuan/ton more. On the downstream side, the domestic refrigerant market is in the off-season, the demand of terminal air-conditioning industry is flat, and the demand of pharmaceutical, agricultural and solvent industries is stable.

Future Market Forecast

Business Club methane chloride data analysts believe that at present, the overall dichloromethane market is gradually restoring, spot supply is normalizing, downstream demand is flat, trading is weak, and the operators are more wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the market of dichloromethane will be shaken and adjusted in the near future.

Price Trend

In August 2019, the domestic methanol market rose first and then fell. According to the price monitoring of business associations, the average domestic methanol price was 1970 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 1994 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The average domestic methanol price rose by 1.22% and the maximum amplitude was 12.89%. The price fell by 2.52% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic methanol mainland market rebounded in the first half of August, and returned to the downward channel in the second half of August. The Shandong market rebounded first in the first ten days due to the centralized equipment maintenance and the downstream periodic stock reserve, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The methanol market declined rapidly due to the concentrated pressure of the supply increase and the low futures market in the second ten days. The harbor shocks are narrow, stable in the first ten days and weak in the second ten days. In terms of newly built methanol to olefins in China, 600,000 tons per year in Jiutai, Inner Mongolia, 600,000 tons per year in Chengzhi, Nanjing and 1.8 million tons per year in Zhongan combined MTO plant produced dimerization in early August.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: This month, the formaldehyde market rose narrowly compared with July. Affected by the upstream methanol market, the formaldehyde market rose narrowly in the early and middle of this month, but the downstream demand was low and the volume of single transactions was weak. After the middle of this month, the upstream methanol market began to decline, but the downstream market started to improve slightly, combined with the overall low start of the formaldehyde market, the low market supply and the downstream demand increased. Under the influence, the offer of formaldehyde enterprises is stable and the profit margin is good, but the overall transaction has not reached the ideal state. In September, under the influence of environmental protection policy, the formaldehyde and downstream market will start or be limited, and the cost side has fallen to a relatively low level. It is expected that the formaldehyde market will oscillate lower in early September.

Dimethyl ether: In August, domestic dimethyl ether market prices rose and fell. At the beginning of the month, due to the relatively high profit of two methyl ether, the enterprises started to increase. The increase in the quantity of goods supplied by the market resulted in the lack of price rise and signs of decline, while the terminal was on the right track, and the turnover was not strong enough. In order to avoid further price declines, the Enterprises Limited sales and promoted prices. End-to-end demand support is insufficient and the market continues to fall into a weak situation. In order to avoid falling prices, Xinlian began to implement a bottom-keeping policy, thus protecting market prices sideways. However, with the rising price of raw material methanol, the profit margin of enterprises is gradually narrowed, so the cost factors promote the overall rise of dimethyl ether prices. In the situation of dimethyl ether price rising continuously and narrowly, some shortage traders began to purchase on demand, but did not cause a large-scale incremental trading in the market. The overall performance was general, and prices fell negatively. Dimethyl ether (DME) trade continued to show a cool performance after the late ten days. Even if mainstream enterprises intervened in the market, it had limited impact on the market. During this month, Xinlian carried out several bottom-guaranteed policies. After the settlement price was announced, there were signs of a small price increase. However, due to the negative impact of the market, it is difficult for prices to rise.

Acetic acid: The domestic acetic acid market has risen sharply this month, with a rise of 650 yuan/ton in Jiangsu and 700 yuan/ton in North China. At the beginning of the month, the East China supplier was informed of the production restriction and the 800,000 tons acetic acid plant in Soap, Jiangsu, was shut down, which led to the downstream active purchase of spare goods under the fear of acetic acid upsurge in the later period, and promoted the market to rise at a low level. Afterwards, due to the overhaul and shutdown of the air separation unit and the planned overhaul of the Huayi plant in Anhui Province, the acetic acid Market in Shaanxi Province continued to rise and the price gradually increased. In view of the sustained bullish mood in the latter period, the acetic acid export orders increased significantly this month, encountering the advantages of BP in Malaysia and Celanese in Singapore, such as parking overhaul in the latter period, domestic suppliers’supply and replenishment, which made the domestic acetic acid market short of supply and demand. Considering the substantive digestion of the downstream, the supplier’s increase was mainly rational.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in August 2019, there were five kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector, of which more than 5% increased, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The top three commodities were MTBE (8.16%), gasoline (2.24%) and methanol (1.22%). There are 11 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dimethyl ether (-9.03%), liquefied natural gas (-7.08%) and Brent crude oil (-6.28%). This month’s average rise and fall was -1.52%.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, methanol in the mainland continued to decline in late August, with local market prices falling to the production cost of methanol plants; new methanol-to-olefin plants were put into operation one after another, while MTO load of Phase II of Chengzhi in Nanjing was not high; production time of Baofeng in Shandong, Luxi and Ningxia was delayed; with the early maintenance of olefin plants, such as Ningxia, was resumed one after another. Pound, Shenhua Yulin, etc., olefin start-up has been restored. On the negative side, the arrival of methanol in the port is concentrated, with an estimated arrival of more than 1 million tons in August and 90-950,000 tons in September; 700,000 tons in Yankuang Yulin are planned to be put into operation in October under the orderly construction of new methanol plants in China; Rongxin in Inner Mongolia is expected to be put into operation in September; Yingde in Jingmen in late August; near the National Day, the Northern Environmental Protection Supervision The surveillance was strengthened and formaldehyde trade unions in the north were expected to decline in September. With the concentrated release of bad news such as high inventory of methanol ports, abundant inventory in the mainland and weak downstream traditional demand, the relative supply-over-demand pattern of methanol has not changed. Methanol analysts of business associations predict that the short-term domestic methanol market will continue to be vulnerable to shocks. With the advent of National Day, environmental protection and safety inspections in the north are rigorous, and information about the policy of production restriction needs to be paid attention to.