Yesterday, the domestic phenol market stopped falling, and the focus of the negotiation rose, mainly because the spot quantity was tight, some terminal factories started to store and replenish goods, and the mentality of the holders improved. The negotiation ended the situation of continuous decline, and the focus rose. In East China, the overall increase is 100-150 yuan/ton, and the negotiation is 8120-8150 yuan/ton. It is understood that the port replenishment has been delayed, and the market available is limited. However, the demand side has inquiries, but most of the goods are replenished with small orders. The on-site delivery volume is average. In the downstream, BPA continues to decline. The negotiation is 10000-10150 yuan/ton. It is expected that the short-term phenol market will be strong and upward, and the increase will mainly depend on the demand of downstream factories, focusing on the market turnover.

On December 6, phenol offers in various markets across the country were as follows:

Regional./quotation./daily rise and fall

East China/8150/. 100

Shandong Province/8250./100

Yanshan surrounding area./8250./100

South China/8150./100

The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline. As of December 5, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 8400 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 10.99%. The supply of phthalic anhydride was sufficient, but the demand did not improve, and the market continued to fall

The market of phthalic anhydride declined, and the main influencing factors are as follows:

Supply side: sufficient spot supply of phthalic anhydride

The supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient. The domestic phthalic anhydride plants are operating stably. The domestic phthalic anhydride capacity is seriously surplus. At present, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate remains more than 60%. The supply of goods is poor, and the market trend continues to decline.

Cost end: the price of ortho benzene is lower, and the cost support is weakened

The price trend of domestic ortho benzene declined. As of the 5th day, the price of ortho benzene was 8200 yuan/ton, and the monthly price dropped 11.83%. The overhaul and restart of some ortho benzene units in the plant. According to the increase in the supply of ortho benzene as the reaction raw material from the manufacturer, the ortho benzene market has declined due to the decline in the mixed xylene market, and the cost support has weakened. As a result, the phthalic anhydride market has declined.

Demand side: plasticizer market downturn, poor demand

The DOP market price in the downstream of phthalic anhydride has decreased slightly. At present, the domestic DOP price is 9890 yuan/ton, and the domestic DOP enterprises start construction at a low level of about 50%. For phthalic anhydride, it is mainly purchased on demand, and the mainstream DOP price is 9800-10000 yuan/ton. The output of plastic products has decreased, the demand for plasticizers has decreased, and the plasticizer industry still has a downward trend. Poor downstream demand is the negative impact of the phthalic anhydride market, which continues to decline.

In the future, the price of o-xylene will be weak in the short term, the downstream plasticizer industry will start slowly, and the supply of phthalic anhydride will be sufficient, adding negative factors. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will decline slightly in the later period.

Price trend

At the beginning of December, the domestic PA6 market was weak, with a narrow decline in price. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic PA6 was 1866.67 yuan/ton on December 5, with a range of – 0.48%.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: it can be seen from the figure below that caprolactam in China has been in the downward channel recently, the market for raw material pure benzene has weakened, and the cost side support is insufficient. The on-site supply of caprolactam increased and the demand side decreased. It is expected that the price trend of caprolactam will decline in the short term.

In terms of supply: the operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization enterprises decreased by a narrow margin, and the overall load level was below 65%. Last week, the output was stable and the supply of goods was abundant. In addition, the production of new units in the early stage will also store pressure on the supply side.

Demand: In the downstream, the textile enterprises have average load, the nylon filament can be started, and the stock of PA6 chips has decreased. The market competition was strengthened, and the high-end offers were generally not smooth. The buyer just needs to stock up and buy cautiously, and the wait-and-see mentality is biased.

Future market forecast

At the beginning of December, the market price of PA6 fell by a narrow margin. The load of domestic polymerization plants has decreased by a narrow margin, and the supply is still sufficient. On the demand side, the demand is relatively weak, and the rigid demand support is weakened. The contradiction between supply and demand and the falling cost have a certain drag on the market. Generally speaking, the market fundamentals are weak, and the market may continue to be weak.

The domestic butadiene market continued to fall, and the European price fell sharply at the beginning of the week, which affected merchants’ concerns about the supply pressure of the global market. At the same time, the domestic northern spot resources were abundant, and the poor transaction dragged down the weak market. As the price of butadiene declines, the downstream will make up for bargains periodically.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, from November 25 to December 2, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 6763 yuan/ton to 6366 yuan/ton, a 5.86% drop in the cycle, a 12.23% month on month decline and a 4.03% year-on-year increase. In terms of price, the delivery price in Shandong Luzhong area is 6500-6600 yuan/ton, and the self inquiry offer price in East China is 6000-6300 yuan/ton.

In terms of external market: the closing price on December 1, while the external price of butadiene in Asia was stable: FOB South Korea reported 745-755 dollars/ton; China CFR quoted 755-765 US dollars/ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at 495-505 dollars/ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 545-555 euros/ton.

Region./Country./Closing price./Up and down

Asia./FOB Korea./765-775 US dollars/ton./0 yuan/ton

Asia./CFR China./755-765 USD/ton./0 USD/ton

Europe and America./FOB Rotterdam./495-505 USD/ton./0 USD/ton

Europe./FD Northwest Europe./545-555 euros/ton./0 euros/ton

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China decreased significantly, with the price of 11420 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 10890 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 4.63%.

The business community monitored that the price of domestic styrene butadiene rubber fluctuated slightly. The price at the beginning of the week was 10908 yuan/ton, while at the weekend it was 10859 yuan/ton, down 0.45%.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of nitrile rubber in China was narrowed down. The price was 15,125 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 15,149 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 0.16%.

As the price of butadiene drops to a low level, the downstream needs to follow up. On the other hand, some early maintenance devices will resume normal operation, and the market supply may be weak. Butadiene analysts from the business community expected that the short-term domestic butadiene market would be dominated by shocks.

1、 Price data

According to the data from the bulk list of business cooperatives, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products of major domestic refineries in November was 3739.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 3564.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 175 yuan/ton, or 4.68%.

On November 30, the petroleum coke commodity index was 277.20, 4.86 points lower than yesterday, 32.18% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 (2022-05-11), and 314.41% higher than the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In November, the price of petroleum coke for local refining fell after rising. In the first ten days of this year, downstream carbon enterprises were more active in purchasing. The inventory of petroleum coke for local refining enterprises was low, and the price of petroleum coke rose; In the last ten days, the national logistics and transportation were blocked, the petroleum coke market was fully supplied, the local refining enterprises had high inventories, and the downstream had a strong wait-and-see mood. The price of petroleum coke continued to decline.

In November, the trend of international crude oil prices was volatile and downward. The Federal Reserve suggested that the interest rate increase was far from over and was not close to the end of monetary tightening. At present, the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve has limited impact on inflation, which is not enough to reduce inflation. The Federal Reserve may need to take more tightening measures to curb inflation in the future, which will affect the decline of crude oil prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) once again lowered the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2022. With the risk of global economic recession intensifying, the future slowdown of demand growth is a certainty, and fuel demand will also face pressure. The most important thing is that the overall economy is weak. The severe epidemic situation in Asia continues to drag down demand expectations. The prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic, and economic weakness depresses oil prices.

The calcined coke market was basically stable in November; The market price of metal silicon fell. As of November 30, the price was 20250.00 yuan/ton; The downstream electrolytic aluminum market rose in shock. As of November 30, the price was 18983.33 yuan/ton; At present, downstream carbon enterprises purchase on demand and mainly wait and see.

3、 Future market forecast

The oil coke analyst of the business agency predicted that: the international crude oil shocks and declines in November, and the cost support of oil coke is limited; At present, the logistics transportation across the country is blocked, and the petroleum coke market is fully supplied. The local refining enterprises have high inventories. At the end of the month, the downstream is mainly wait-and-see, and the purchasing enthusiasm is average. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke will continue to decline in the near future.