Trade name: polyaluminium chloride

Latest price (January 27): 2507.5 yuan / ton

Market analysis: according to the monitoring data of business society, the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminium chloride on January 27, 2022 is 2507.5 yuan / ton. At present, the national water treatment manufacturers have basically entered the state of Spring Festival holiday, with sufficient inventory and almost static demand and transaction.

Future forecast: the domestic market of raw hydrochloric acid fluctuates slightly in the near future, there is little demand for water treatment products downstream, logistics is shut down, downstream enterprises start rarely during holidays, and the polyaluminium chloride market continues to be cold.

According to the statistics of business agency: the market of potassium nitrate rose on January 26. The quotation of mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate in Shanxi is 6100 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference). The quotation is different according to different procurement conditions. The recent consolidation of the high price of the international potassium chloride market can support the cost of potassium nitrate. The trading atmosphere of the potassium nitrate Market is relatively active, the inventory is low, the manufacturers ship according to the order, and the potassium nitrate market continues to rise.

The potassium chloride market has reached a new high in the near future, and the cost support is good. It is expected that the potassium nitrate Market will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business society. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details).

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (January 25): 5890 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today’s acetic acid market was sorted and operated. The average market price in East China increased by 20 yuan / ton, or 0.34%, compared with the previous working day. The domestic market is dominated by wait-and-see consolidation. The start-up of acetic acid enterprises is relatively high, the market supply is sufficient, the preparation of goods before the downstream Festival is close to the end, the demand is weak, the inventory of acetic acid enterprises remains rational, the quotation of individual manufacturers is slightly increased according to their own shipment situation, the overall market maintains light and stable operation, and the mentality of on-site operators is wait-and-see.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market will be sorted out on the sidelines and will remain stable before the year, with specific attention to the market supply.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (January 24): 2644.00 yuan / ton

On January 24, the comprehensive price of domestic urea increased by 2 yuan / ton, or 0.08%, and 31.31% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The prices of upstream coal and natural gas rise and fall with each other, and the cost support is general. From the perspective of demand: the promotion of agricultural demand is accelerated, and industrial demand is dominated by rigid demand. Agricultural fertilizer preparation increased in some areas, and dealers prepared an appropriate amount of fertilizer before the festival. Affected by the Winter Olympics, the compound fertilizer plants around Beijing are unable to produce after the festival. They are stepping up production before the festival, and the demand for urea is increasing. The price of melamine in the downstream stopped falling and rose, and the downstream plate factory was mainly in demand. In terms of supply, some gas head enterprises plan to resume production, and the daily output of urea increases slightly. On the whole, the cost of urea is generally supported, the downstream demand is good, the supply of urea is loose, and the future urea mainly fluctuates and rises slightly.

In the future, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong is expected to rise slightly, and the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 2650 yuan / ton.

On January 21, the natural rubber commodity index was 40.36, down 0.83 points from yesterday, down 59.64% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 47.95% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber since January 2022

Monitoring shows that since this month (January 21), domestic natural rubber (standard I) in China’s East China market has continued to fluctuate and decline, with the mainstream report of about 13748 yuan / ton on the 1st and about 13610 yuan / ton on the 21st, a decrease of 1%. During this period, the highest price point was 14020 yuan / ton on the 12th, and the lowest price point was 13610 yuan / ton on the 21st, with a maximum amplitude of 2.92%.

According to macro analysis, the international crude oil price fell slightly on January 20. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $85.55/barrel, down US $0.25, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $88.38/barrel, down US $0.06. Previously, affected by tight supply, oil prices continued to rise, hitting a seven-year high. The U.S. crude oil inventory data released one day later showed that the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory increased last week since November last year, and the crude oil was under short-term pressure. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its oil growth forecast for 2022. Market participants generally expect that the mutated virus Omicron has limited impact on the global economic recovery, oil supply is still tight, investors believe that the Fed is not as good as the expected hawks, and oil prices continue to rebound.

According to the industrial analysis, in foreign production areas, Vietnam and northern Thailand have entered the production reduction period since January, while southern Thailand is still in the high production period, and the output of the main production areas in Thailand will gradually decline by the end of the month; Basically all cutting in our domestic area has been stopped. It is reported that the shipping situation has eased slightly recently, the amount of glue arriving at Hong Kong has increased, and land transportation has been blocked in many places due to the overall impact of the epidemic, spring transportation and Winter Olympic Games; On the demand side, more and more enterprises are entering the holiday mode. In addition to the requirements of environmental protection and power restriction, the downstream operating rate has decreased significantly, the tire inventory is high, and the rubber procurement demand continues to be weak.

Figure 3: Weekly K histogram of natural rubber market since January 2022

Figure 4: annual comparison of domestic mainstream trend of natural rubber from 2019 to 2022

Future forecast: in the production and supply reduction season, China’s inventory, especially in Qingdao, has increased significantly and the outbound volume has decreased, resulting in a rapid increase in inventory, while the procurement demand is obviously weak. It is expected that the natural rubber market will continue to fluctuate and weaken around the Spring Festival.