Aniline price continue to rise this week (February 17-21, 2020)

1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, this week’s aniline continued to rise last week, with the price of aniline in Nanjing at 7300 yuan / ton, up 2.3% from last Friday.

 

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2、 Analysis and comment

 

Raw materials: this week’s price of pure benzene was 5050-5800 yuan / ton, down 0.56% from last week. This week’s port inventory of pure benzene has not changed much from last week. The downstream starting load of pure benzene is still low, the demand is limited, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is not active. Some northern enterprises are forced by the pressure of shipment to promote the transaction at a low price.

 

Nitric acid rose slightly this week, with the production price in East China at 1583.33 yuan / ton, up 1.06% from last week.

 

Product: this week, affected by Jinling parking and Nanhua cargo preparation, the supply of aniline decreased and the price rose, 2.3% higher than last week.

 

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3、 Future expectation

 

Raw materials: the demand for styrene downstream of pure benzene is not strong, the inventory pressure increases, the operating rate decreases, and other downstream operating rates also decrease. The demand has greatly restricted the pure benzene market. It is reported that in March, Japan and South Korea will have more equipment overhauls and imports will be reduced.

 

Jinling start-up time is uncertain, the starting load of aniline enterprises is not high, and the supply of aniline is still small, supporting the price. Stable operation is expected next week.

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Stable operation of coke market in China

1、 Price data:

 

2、 Trend analysis

 

Price: according to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic coke market is still stable. At present, the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shanghai is 1980 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 2050 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Xuzhou is 1950 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 2020 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Weifang, Shandong Province is 1900 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1950 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province is 1800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 2050 yuan / ton The mainstream price of metallurgical coke is 1850 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang Province is 1840 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1900 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shenyang, Liaoning Province is 1870 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1930 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Pingdingshan, Henan Province is 1900 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 2000 yuan / ton; Tangshan, Hebei Province The mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke is 1890 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1940 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tianjin is 1900 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 2000 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market in Sichuan is 2130 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Liupanshui coke market in Guizhou is 2270 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Ordos coke market The main price of metallurgical coke is 1550 yuan / ton. The port trades about 2150 yuan / ton of primary metallurgical coke, 2050 yuan / ton of quasi primary metallurgical coke and 1950 yuan / ton of secondary metallurgical coke.

 

Products: with the gradual improvement of the new crown epidemic situation, the recovery of logistics and transportation industry, the supply of raw materials for coke enterprises has been supplemented to a certain extent, the limited production situation of enterprises has slightly eased, the supply of coke market is gradually recovering, the limited production of downstream steel plants continues, some enterprises just need to purchase coke, and the overall trade and investment of the industry is weak.

 

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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are four kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices on February 18, 2020, among which the top three are liquefied natural gas (2.00%), liquefied gas (0.89%) and Brent crude oil (0.61%). There are four kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and the top three products were MTBE (- 4.30%), fuel oil (- 0.89%) and gasoline (- 0.14%).

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the coke analysts of the business association, some coke enterprises are still in the state of production restriction. With the improvement of the epidemic situation and the recovery of road transportation, the enterprises have successively issued plans to increase production. The downstream steel plants are just short of demand, and they adjust more by themselves. It is expected that the coke market will continue to operate stably in the short term.

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Silicone market starts, trend looks forward to good

1、 Price trend

 

According to the monitoring data of the business association, as of February 18, the average price of organosilicon DMC market in several mainstream areas monitored by the data is 19000 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as that a week ago. At present, the market is mainly on the sidelines.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

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Product: at present, the resumption of silicone market is proceeding step by step. The progress of the whole industrial chain is significantly faster than last week. However, the market and trading atmosphere are still recovering slowly. There is inventory pressure on the single plant. The unit operation rate is further reduced this week. Most enterprises still do not make offers, and the prices are negotiated on a single basis. Some enterprises set production by sales. There are only a few quotation enterprises. According to the current market reference price of quotation enterprises, which is around 19000-19200 yuan / ton, the middle and lower reaches enterprises that have returned to work are mainly waiting for their peers to make inquiries. At present, the market lacks substantial large orders, there is no guiding price, and the manufacturers keep a stable attitude.

 

Operation of the unit: the annual production capacity of Ekin silicon (Jiangxi base) is 400000 tons, and the unit is in the process of shutdown and overhaul; Shandong area: the unit in Luxi is in stable operation; Jinling unit is in the process of shutdown and overhaul; Dongyue has an annual production capacity of 250000 tons, and one set is opened for two sets; Zhejiang area: Zhongtian Dongfang fluorine silicon is in the process of shutdown; 70% of the newly installed units are in operation; Hesheng silicon is in normal operation, and the plants in Sichuan and Xinjiang are not in operation The annual production capacity of Hubei Xingfa is 320000 tons, 80% of which has been started, and the newly increased production capacity has not been released yet; Tangshan Sanyou has one opening, one stop and one stop; this week, the single unit operation rate has been further reduced, and the Zhangjiagang base of Daokangning has a maintenance plan in March.

 

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Industry chain: last week, the 107 rubber market in China was still stagnant, the rate of enterprises returning to work was still at a low level, most of the production enterprises closed the plate, and the superposition of logistics and transportation was limited, which made it difficult to improve the 107 rubber delivery and investment. Under the pressure of shipment, the operating rate of 107 rubber unit in the single plant was lowered, and the quotation remained unchanged, mainly based on the actual single negotiation. It is expected that the operating rate of downstream enterprises will gradually increase this week, part of the logistics will also recover, and the 107 rubber delivery and investment atmosphere will rise accordingly.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Business analysts believe that: with the governments in various regions also actively promoting the resumption of enterprises, the resumption rate of middle and lower reaches of silicone enterprises will start to rise in the near future, and the market trend will gradually become stable and clear.

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Poor demand, ethylene market price fell

1、 Price trend:

 

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene in the external market has declined recently. The average price of ethylene on the 17th was $801.75/ton, down 2.64% from $823.50/ton on the 14th, and the current price is 28.80% lower than last year.

 

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2、 Market analysis:

 

Product: ethylene overall fell today. Asian ethylene market prices fell, with CFR Northeast Asia closing at $737-745 per ton and CFR Southeast Asia closing at $748-754 per ton as of 17. The price of European ethylene market fell slightly. As of the 17th, the price of European ethylene market was FD, northwest Europe closed at $907-918 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe closed at $798-809 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region remained stable. As of the 17th, the price was US $330-337 / T. overall: in the near future, the European and American ethylene market is generally in a downward trend. The demand of the whole ethylene market is poor, and the market continues to decline. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

 

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Industry chain: International: on February 14, European and American crude oil futures rose for the fourth day in a row. New York commodity futures exchange West Texas light oil futures settlement price in March 2020 was $52.05 per barrel, up $0.63, up 1.2% compared with the previous trading day; London Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude oil futures settlement price in April 2020 was $57.32 per barrel, up $0.98, up compared with the previous trading day 1.7% of the price. The continuous rise of crude oil plays a supporting role in the ethylene price. In the later stage, it is good to support the ethylene price rising, but the recent weak demand and the external market of ethylene fell. The price of styrene in the lower reaches fluctuated and declined, and the price of ethanol remained stable, unable to support the price of ethylene.

 

3、 Future forecast:

 

According to ethylene analyst of business Chemical Branch, the price of crude oil has risen recently, which is good for the ethylene market. Therefore, data analyst of business Chemical Branch expects that the ethylene price will keep a narrow range of shocks in the future, not excluding the possibility of rising.

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the price decline again and again,Butadiene market looks forward to “spring” (2.10-2.14)

1、 Price trend

 

The domestic butadiene market fell again and again this week. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the market price of butadiene in China was 7662 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 6626 yuan / ton at the end of the week, 13.52% lower than that in the week, 18.20% lower than that in the previous week, 32.58% lower than that in the previous year.

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

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Products: this week, the domestic butadiene market fell broadly, and some manufacturers in the north and East China were relatively active in export. In addition, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli had some products for export, and the market spot supply increased significantly. However, the downstream latex industry was limited to return to work, and some rubber manufacturers’ devices were affected by the inventory of finished products, which led to the intensification of the basic contradiction between supply and demand of butadiene. In the week, the transaction price of Fushun Petrochemical fell to 5520-5600 yuan / ton. In addition, the supply price of Sinopec continued to decline, dragging the market bearish atmosphere, and the market approached a five-year low. In terms of price, the delivery price in Shandong Province is 6200 yuan / ton, and the price in East China is 7000 yuan / ton. However, in view of the expectation that the price of some export manufacturers will go down further, the market will continue to be bearish in the short term, and there are many lower prices.

 

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s supply price of butadiene in East China has been reduced by 1000 yuan / ton to 7000 yuan / ton in total; the price of butadiene in Liaotong chemical industry is 6610 yuan / ton, down 700 yuan / ton, and the weekly sales volume is 338 tons; Fushun Petrochemical’s supply of 390 tons of goods is exported within the week, and the transaction range is 5520-5600 yuan / ton; the load of 70000 tons / year butadiene unit in Jiutai, Inner Mongolia has slightly decreased, and there is no definite quotation for the moment, and the actual delivery order is negotiated; Dalian Hengtai The capacity of 140000 T / a butadiene plant is maintained at a load of 40-50% within a week, and a small number of superior products are exported to Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and the capacity of 200000 t / a butadiene plant is about 50-60% within a week, and some qualified products flow into the downstream factories in the region.

 

In terms of industrial chain: SBR: this week, the mainstream factory price of domestic SBR sales companies fell, with a drop of 300-400 yuan / ton. The start-up rate of styrene butadiene unit is around 40.90%; the styrene butadiene units of Jihua, Fushun, Lanhua and Bridgestone are all in normal operation; the styrene butadiene unit in Qilu has recently been in negative operation with load around 70%; the two lines of Yangzi styrene butadiene unit have been in negative operation; the styrene butadiene unit in Shenhua has been in negative operation with load down to 70%; the styrene butadiene unit in Weitai has been shut down for maintenance since January 15, and it is planned to restart in the near future; the first line of dynaso in northern Liaoning is currently in operation In addition, Tianjin Lugang, Hangzhou Yibang and Fuxiang chemical SBR plants will continue to be shut down.

 

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Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: this week, the ex factory price of gaoshun cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, a leading domestic sales company, fell by 400 yuan / ton compared with the previous period; in terms of price, the ex factory price of gaoshun cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell to 10400 yuan / ton. The operation rate of domestic high CIS polybutadiene rubber plant dropped to around 5.80%, and the inventory of some production enterprises was high, and the logistics was not recovered yet. After the pressure increased, the operation rate slightly decreased, and the overall operation rate of CIS polybutadiene was still lower than last week.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

On the positive side, the price difference between butadiene and synthetic rubber has been widened, and there is no significant negative reduction in the downstream for the time being. The supplier’s low price stimulates the downstream connection. On the negative side, the logistics is limited, the downstream resumption is delayed, the output of butadiene supply end is increased, the downstream finished product inventory is under pressure, some units are under load, and the manufacturer’s inventory and tank farm inventory remain high. With the output of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Dalian Hengli sources of goods, the butadiene spot supply increases, but there is no centralized resumption of work in the downstream in the near future. On the other hand, there are many synthetic rubber manufacturers with devices to reduce the negative news. The contradiction between supply and demand fundamentals in the butadiene market intensifies, and the market is still dragging obviously. In the short term, although the low price supply stimulates the downstream replenishment, under the influence of abundant supply, the butadiene analysts of the business community predict that the decline of domestic butadiene market is difficult to be effectively contained in the short term, and it is suggested to pay attention to the downstream demand follow-up and butadiene supplier price guidance.

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