According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of June 27th, the price of 0 # zinc was 22568 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 2.95% compared to the zinc price of 21992 yuan/ton on June 23rd.
This week’s market analysis
Last week, zinc prices continued to decline, and in this context, downstream companies have increased their willingness to purchase at low prices and replenish inventory. As a result, zinc prices experienced a slight rebound in the second half of the week. However, the order situation in the terminal market has not shown significant improvement, and under the sustained effect of the off-season, companies generally hold a pessimistic attitude towards the future trend of zinc prices. Therefore, after a brief rebound, the zinc price adjusted downwards again.
Raw material end
The mines in northern China will basically complete the resumption of production work. At the same time, the domestic production of zinc concentrate will continue to maintain a release trend. Although the window for importing zinc concentrate in June will be closed, goods with previously locked prices will continue to flow into the market. Overall, the supply of domestic zinc concentrate is expected to remain relatively loose in June, and there is still a trend of further increase in processing fees.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, overseas listed zinc projects have successfully released production as planned, resulting in a year-on-year increase in global zinc concentrate production from January to April. At the same time, the import volume of domestic zinc concentrate also showed a year-on-year increase trend, and the inventory days of raw materials in domestic zinc smelters increased month on month, reaching a relatively high level in the same period of history. In addition, the concentrate processing fee (TC) remains stable and has slightly increased, further enhancing the profit margin of zinc smelters and strengthening their smelting enthusiasm. It is expected that the supply of refined zinc will increase.
On the demand side, the operating rates of downstream galvanizing, die-casting, and zinc oxide industries have declined month on month. At present, the domestic real estate market is still in a downward cycle, the rush to install in the photovoltaic industry has come to an end, the production schedule of the home appliance industry is showing a downward trend, and the automotive industry is facing the problem of increasing inventory pressure. There are signs of overall weak demand in reality.
Inventory end
This week, LME zinc inventory showed a month on month decline, while the spot discount rate has narrowed. Domestic zinc spot inventory also showed a month on month decline, while spot premiums showed a downward trend. The global zinc inventory continues the process of destocking.
comprehensive analysis
Recently, the zinc concentrate processing fee (TC) has remained stable and shown an upward trend. Although there has been a significant increase in the domestic zinc production plan for June, based on the actual weekly production data, it may be difficult to achieve the expected level. At the same time, the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates is gradually heating up. In addition, the strike at a zinc smelter in Peru has raised concerns in the market about a decrease in zinc supply, which has led to a strong upward trend in zinc prices.

Recently (6.18-6.25), the butadiene rubber market has been weak and declining. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 25th, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 11800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.99% from 12040 yuan/ton on June 18th. The price of raw material butadiene has slightly decreased, but the cost of butadiene rubber still has support; The production of butadiene rubber is basically stable; Downstream semi steel tire production has slightly decreased, providing support for the demand for butadiene rubber. As of June 25th, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 11700~12000 yuan/ton.
Recently (6.18-6.25), the price of butadiene has been weak and slightly lower, and the cost of butadiene rubber continues to be supported. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 25th, the price of butadiene was 9133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.79% from 9300 yuan/ton on June 18th.
Recently (6.18-6.25), the overall stability of the Shunding plant in China has been around 6.60%.
Demand side: Recently (6.18-6.25), there has been a slight fluctuation in downstream tire production, which provides strong support for the demand in the butadiene rubber market. As of June 22, the production of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has slightly decreased to around 7.3%; Around 6.10% of tire companies in Shandong have started construction on all steel tires.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the raw material butadiene market will consolidate weakly, and the cost of butadiene rubber will still be supported; The production of downstream semi steel tires has slightly decreased, and the supply and demand are running weakly. Overall, it is expected that the market for butadiene rubber will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the later period.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the formic acid market has been operating steadily in recent days. As of June 24th, the benchmark price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in China was 2400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4% from 2500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and a decrease of 15.79% from 2855 yuan/ton in the same period last year.
In terms of the market, formic acid holders have stable quotations, downstream essential procurement is the main focus, and the market trading atmosphere is still acceptable. The recent price increase of upstream raw material methanol may provide cost support for formic acid.
From the perspective of the industrial chain within the month, the raw material liquid ammonia has slightly increased, and the mentality of enterprises to raise prices is gradually strengthening. Some large factories have made small adjustments, but the magnitude is very limited, with an increase of 0.73%. The raw material sulfuric acid has increased by 9.76%, and the raw material caustic soda price is weak. Recently, the domestic downstream demand is average, supporting the consolidation of caustic soda prices, with a decrease of 4.75%. Under the influence of the geopolitical situation, the raw material methanol, based on concerns about the expected supply in the market, coupled with the low circulating volume in coastal markets recently, has seen a strong rise in the port methanol market, with a significant increase of 20.88%.
The formic acid data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that the formic acid market operated smoothly in June, and there is support for costs in the later stage, which may remain strong.

Last week (June 16-22, 2025), the market for the main raw material of viscose staple fiber, dissolved pulp, was weak and stagnant, with average cost support. The downstream market mainly executed early orders, with weak replenishment willingness and no improvement in demand. The trading atmosphere in the market was flat, and the viscose staple fiber market was weakly adjusted, resulting in a slight decline in prices.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 22, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 13080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from the same period last week, with a weekly decline of 0.61%.
In terms of cost: Last week (June 16-22, 2025), there was little change in the market price of raw material dissolution slurry, with a weak stalemate. The market prices of auxiliary materials such as liquid alkali and sulfuric acid remained stable with small fluctuations, and the cost support was average.
Supply demand: The operating rate of adhesive short fiber manufacturers’ equipment remained stable within the week, and the industry supply remained stable. The downstream cotton yarn market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with prices being mainly deadlocked. Insufficient orders have been placed in the terminal market, and downstream yarn companies still have a certain amount of raw material inventory. Coupled with high finished product inventory, a small number of orders are mainly signed on demand, resulting in average delivery speed and weak demand without improvement.
Future forecast
Raw material side: The main material dissolution slurry market or weakly stable operation, auxiliary material liquid alkali, sulfuric acid market or overall market remains stable. Therefore, it is expected that the market price trend of adhesive short fiber raw materials will be weak next week, and the cost support will be average.
Supply and demand side: The operating rate of the adhesive short fiber market equipment may not fluctuate significantly, and some manufacturers have high inventory levels. Therefore, it is expected that the supply side support of the adhesive short fiber market will be poor in the short term; Downstream yarn factories mainly consume raw material inventory and have a weak willingness to replenish raw materials. They may maintain rigid procurement, making it difficult for the demand side to improve. Therefore, it is expected that the demand side of the adhesive short fiber market will perform poorly next week.
Overall, the main raw material dissolution slurry market may experience weak consolidation, and downstream yarn market procurement enthusiasm is difficult to improve. The expected trading atmosphere in the market is flat. Business analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will remain stable with small movements next week, and prices are expected to be accepted at 12800-13100 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market continued its upward trend from last week and continued to climb this week (June 16-20). As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4677 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.23% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
Supply side: The atmosphere of speculation in the PVC spot market has gradually strengthened this week, and the spot market continues to climb driven by the crude oil and futures markets. The market performance has improved in terms of supply and demand, and the PVC operating rate has remained stable this week. Most enterprises are operating at high loads, and the operating rate has remained at the previous level. This is mainly based on the increase in trading volume and the improvement of market sentiment.
In terms of inventory, the market has maintained a high trading volume recently, and social inventory continues to decrease. However, considering the previously large basic inventory, the current spot supply side remains abundant.
On the cost side: The market price of calcium carbide has slightly decreased this week, and the market has entered a bottoming stage. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the weekly decline of calcium carbide is 0.68%. The increase in downstream procurement volume has a certain stimulating effect, and PVC prices have rebounded.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, there will be sufficient PVC supply, and the operating rate of manufacturers will remain at a high level. The inventory of enterprises is still generally high, and it needs to be continuously reduced in the later stage. The rebound of short-term futures market is mainly driven by the improvement of market sentiment and the rise in crude oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions, and the lack of sustained improvement in PVC fundamentals. As downstream procurement returns to rationality, the positive support effect is not significant. We should be cautious about the magnitude of the increase.