According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from November 28th to December 5th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price fell from 16100 yuan/ton to 15816 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.76% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 0.21%, and a year-on-year increase of 11.07%. The domestic aggregated MDI market prices have fallen, with a slow decline and a poor overall trading atmosphere, with some shipments showing strong willingness. But as the settlement of supplier prices at the end of the month exceeded expectations, a cautious atmosphere increased, with slow follow-up being the main focus.
On the supply side, Kesichuang will undergo maintenance on November 16th, lasting for about a month. Wanhua Chemical (Ningbo) Co., Ltd.’s MDI Phase I 400000 ton/year unit will start maintenance on November 15th, and the Phase II 800000 ton/year unit will start shutdown maintenance on December 3rd, with each unit undergoing maintenance for about 50 days. Both Chongqing BASF and Shanghai Lianheng have maintenance plans, and the supply side is gradually shrinking. The overall market support still exists. The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.
On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene has continued to decline in the East China market. The prices of main operating units have once again been lowered, and news of unplanned shutdown of some downstream units has spread. The overall downstream demand continues to decrease, and the atmosphere of spot buying by customers is insufficient, with a focus on buying on dips. As of December 5th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 6867.17 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: There is a strong bearish atmosphere in the aniline market, with lower willingness to reserve downstream positions and a focus on on-demand procurement. As of December 5th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyishe is 11475.00 yuan/ton. The cost of aggregating MDI deviates from the influence of null factors.
On the demand side, inventory is at a low level, but the short-term improvement in consumption capacity is expected to be limited. Participants remain in a market driven state, coupled with some aggregated MDI imported goods offering low prices and buying at low prices. The ability to follow up on higher prices is limited. The demand for short-term aggregated MDI is mixed.
In the future market forecast, the current supply and demand are weak and horizontal. Business Society’s aggregated MDI analysts predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market may continue to decline.