This week, there has been an increase in supply in the northern region, while downstream users are resistant to high raw material prices, and buying is mainly wait-and-see. Market negotiations have fallen from high levels. As of August 14th, the mainstream negotiated price for tank self pickup in the East China market is 12000-12200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from last week; The mainstream negotiated price for delivery within the Shandong market area is between 11700-11800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250-350 yuan/ton compared to last week.
Partial supply relief:
During the week, the 260000 ton/year plant of Lihua Yilijin Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. was restarted and resumed, with an increase in supply from the north. At the same time, downstream users were resistant to high raw material prices, and buying was mainly wait-and-see. Market negotiations fell from high levels; However, the East China region is still tight, and the supply is still limited in the short term, which restricts the downward trend of the market. The price difference between the North and South markets is gradually widening again. According to statistics, this week (August 7-13), the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached 69.32%, an increase of 2.76% compared to the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 80900 tons, which is+0.32 million tons compared to the previous cycle. Although the supply side has recovered, the overall situation is still limited, and there is no pressure on the inventory of various enterprises in the short term. As of August 12th, the total inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories is about 33000 tons, which is the same as last week.
Downstream demand decline:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries has decreased, with ABS capacity utilization rate at 60.70%, a decrease of -0.20% compared to last week; The capacity utilization rate of the acrylic fiber industry is 53.47%, which is -2.70% compared to last week. The Hebei Aikerui acrylic fiber plant under Jilin Chemical Fiber has been shut down for 20 days for maintenance; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity is 50.54%, which is 3.23% higher than last week. Henan Zhengjia has shut down for maintenance; The overall downstream demand has decreased.
Rising raw material costs:
During the week, the cost of raw materials increased significantly, while at the same time, the price of acrylonitrile fell from a high level, resulting in a decrease in theoretical production profits. According to statistics, as of August 14th, the mainstream closing price of Shandong propylene market was based on 8500-8650 yuan/ton, with an average price of 8675 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton from last week. The average production cost of acrylonitrile was 10675 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 4.64%. The average production profit is 1516 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -501 yuan/ton.
Post production forecast:
At present, major factories in East China are maintaining low load operation, but Tianchen Qixiang and Sirbond facilities are planned to restart in the latter half of the year, and there are still expectations of gradual relief in the supply side; From the demand side, downstream industries such as acrylic fiber have seen profit compression, and some companies have adopted production restrictions or parking measures, showing obvious resistance to high raw material prices and low buying enthusiasm. Therefore, the market will continue to decline, but the overall downward trend is still relatively slow. In addition, it is still necessary to pay attention to supply side variables, as supply remains the direct factor driving price trends.

This week, the domestic epoxy propane market showed a trend of high-level decline. As of August 12th, the benchmark price of epoxy propane in Shengyi Society was 9066.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.45% compared to the beginning of this month.
Raw material side: Cost support has been strengthened. This week, international oil prices fluctuated upward due to geopolitical factors, and the price of raw material propylene continued to rise. On August 11th, it closed at 8340 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from the previous day. However, the epoxy propane industry is still in a loss making state, with an average weekly comprehensive profit of -357.44 yuan/ton for the chlorohydrin method. The high cost and low selling price create a double squeeze. As of August 12th, the benchmark price of propylene was 8251.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.08% compared to the beginning of this month (7927.67 yuan/ton).
Supply side: The device surface fluctuates frequently. On August 11th, the utilization rate of domestic epoxy propane production capacity was only 60.25%. The growth of market commodity volume is limited.
Demand side: Poor downstream transmission is the core factor causing the price drop this week. The polyether market is in a mixed phase of peak and off peak seasons. Although the favorable supply of raw material cyclopropane has driven up prices, the high prices have weakened downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Downstream reduction follow-up, resistance to high prices, and weak trading atmosphere.
Comprehensive forecast: In the short term, the strong operation of raw material propylene still provides support for the cost side, but downstream demand follow-up is weak and high price resistance still exists. The market may continue to stabilize in the short term. Focus on the dynamic maintenance of equipment and changes in downstream procurement pace.

In early August, the overall formaldehyde market fluctuated and weakened, with a shift in focus. As of August 11th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was reported at 1228 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.25% from the beginning of the month.
Driving factor analysis
Cost side: Methanol drag reduces cost support
In the first half of the year, methanol spot prices fluctuated downwards, and formaldehyde lagged behind methanol’s decline. On August 6th, methanol’s decline reached its maximum stage, and then methanol quickly rebounded and recovered; However, the rebound of formaldehyde was weak and continued to decline, without following the rise of methanol. The main contradiction of formaldehyde has shifted from cost drag to demand suppression. Insufficient methanol reheating is not enough to pull formaldehyde, and the core constraint is the insufficient demand for downstream boards.
Demand side: Traditional off-season, low demand for sheet adhesive
July and August are the traditional off-season for formaldehyde, with artificial boards and urea formaldehyde resin adhesives being the largest downstream. High temperature, rainy weather, and typhoon weather have restricted the operation of sheet metal factories, resulting in insufficient orders for terminal furniture and decoration. Downstream factories only maintain essential procurement and do not actively replenish inventory; The demand for fine chemicals such as Urotropin remains stable, making it difficult to drive the overall market. There is no significant increase in the real estate sector, which has limited impact on the board industry chain and is the most critical factor in suppressing formaldehyde.
Supply side: slight contraction in production, moderate accumulation of inventory
Under high temperature weather, the operational risk of formaldehyde plants increases, coupled with profit compression, and some enterprises actively reduce their load; The increment of new devices is limited. Finished product inventory is slowly rising at a medium to low level, and there has not been a high inventory explosion yet. Manufacturers have a certain willingness to raise prices, but weak demand leads to weak price support.
Market forecast: In mid to late August, there will still be weak pressure and it is difficult to have a significant rebound; As the traditional peak season approaches in September, there is a marginal expectation of recovery, and the height of the increase depends on the actual recovery of methanol and sheet metal production.
1. Cost: The methanol market is in a volatile pattern, with imports arriving at ports, domestic equipment maintenance, and geopolitical news disturbances as the main factors. There is limited room for a sharp decline, but the upward driving force is not strong. The cost of formaldehyde is showing a neutral fluctuation.
2. Supply: If losses continue, formaldehyde companies will continue to reduce their losses, alleviate inventory pressure by reducing production, and suppress downward space; If there is no centralized maintenance, the supply of goods is still relatively sufficient.
3. Demand: It is still in the off-season of summer, and the sheet metal industry is unlikely to show significant improvement. Downstream suppliers will maintain on-demand procurement.
Judgment: Formaldehyde is highly likely to oscillate at a low level, with limited rebound force, and it cannot be ruled out that local areas may continue to explore slightly; The conditions for a significant increase are not met.

1、 Price trend
Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, the price of titanium dioxide in the domestic market has been lowered this week. The average price of titanium dioxide on Monday was 15460 yuan/ton, and the average price of titanium dioxide on the weekend was 14780 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 4.4%.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the domestic titanium dioxide market prices have been lowered. In terms of upstream raw materials, both sulfuric acid and titanium concentrate market prices have been lowered, while downstream markets are in a low season with sluggish market demand and low purchasing enthusiasm, resulting in a downward shift in the focus of the titanium dioxide market. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 14300-16000 yuan/ton; The price of the Ruiti type is around 12800-13200 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that the focus of the domestic titanium dioxide market will shift downwards this week. At present, there is still no significant improvement in demand in the terminal market, and the market is sluggish. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will be weak in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiable.

1、 Price trend
On July 31st, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 8725 yuan/ton, which is 9.11% lower than the reference average price of 9600 yuan/ton on July 1st.
On July 31st, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 8850 yuan/ton, which was 16.51% lower than the reference average price of 10600 yuan/ton on July 1st.
2、 Market analysis
market conditions
The domestic phosphoric acid market has experienced a high decline this month. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus first suppressed and then rose, while the price of raw material sulfur fluctuated, and the cost support is still acceptable. This month, the demand for phosphoric acid market is weak, downstream procurement intentions are cautious, and market transactions are sluggish. As of July 31st, the market price of 85% industrial thermal phosphoric acid in China is around 8200-10000 yuan/ton, and the market price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China is around 8300-10000 yuan/ton.
In terms of cost
Raw material yellow phosphorus market. This month, the yellow phosphorus market first fell and then rose, with overall supply being tight and downstream demand being average. Manufacturers mainly raised prices. Raw material sulfur market. This month, the sulfur market has fluctuated at a high level, with downstream procurement maintaining basic demand and average demand. The market’s upward momentum is limited.
3、 Future forecast
The phosphoric acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent trend of phosphoric acid market prices has been consolidating and operating. At present, the demand for phosphoric acid in the market is weak, and there is still support on the cost side. It is expected that the short-term domestic phosphoric acid market will mainly focus on consolidation and operation.