Recently (10.1-10.14), the nitrile rubber market has been weak and declining. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 14th, the price of nitrile rubber was 16550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.30% from 16600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. After the holiday, the fundamentals of nitrile rubber have been weak, and the nitrile rubber market is mainly weak. As of October 14th, the mainstream market price for Lanhua 3305 in East China is around 16200-16200 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for nitrile 3665 in Russia is around 15800-16000 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for Nandi Nitrile 1052 is around 17300 to 17400 yuan/ton.
Recently (10.1-10.14), the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile have significantly decreased, and the cost support for nitrile rubber has weakened significantly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 14th, the price of butadiene was 8446 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.95% from 8886 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of October 14th, the price of acrylonitrile was 7866 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46% from the price of 7983 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
Recently (10.1-10.14), the overall production of nitrile rubber plants in China has been at a high level; As of October 14th, the overall production of nitrile rubber in China is around 9.1%.
During the long holiday, the downstream production of nitrile rubber hoses in China decreased to around 4.4%, and the production of insulation foam decreased to a low of around 4.3%. The overall demand for nitrile rubber downstream was average, which dragged down the nitrile rubber market.
Market forecast: Business Society’s nitrile analyst believes that the cost support for nitrile rubber is currently weak; The low downstream production and high nitrile rubber production have a negative impact on nitrile rubber. Overall, it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will consolidate weakly in the later stage.

The price of acrylic acid this week was on October 14th, and the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 7183.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.21% compared to the beginning of this month (6700.00 yuan/ton). Based on the prices of the past year, its current price of 7183.33 yuan/ton is at the median level, with room for further increase.
1、 Market performance
The most striking feature of the current market is the sharp contrast in price trends between acrylic acid and its main raw material, propylene. However, the price of acrylic acid ignored the weakness of costs and emerged from an independent upward trend. This’ deviation ‘clearly tells us that the core driving force of the current market is not from costs, but from its own supply and demand pattern.
Supply side:
The price of raw material propylene not only continues to decline, but also approaches the lowest level in a year. As of October 14th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6375.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.56% compared to the beginning of this month (6543.25 yuan/ton). This clearly indicates that from a cost perspective, the support for acrylic acid is significantly weakening, and even forming a drag. If analyzed solely from a cost perspective, acrylic acid should bear downward pressure.
Demand side:
Order locking, tight stock: The factory is busy delivering early orders, which means that current production and shipment have been locked in contracts. This directly leads to a shortage of spot resources available for free circulation in the market. When supply is “locked” by pre demand, even if costs decrease, sellers lack the pressure and willingness to lower prices and ship.
The proactive strategy of the factory: In this situation, the primary task of the factory is to ensure profits and stabilize prices, rather than following the price reduction of raw materials. They successfully maintained market sentiment in a strong range by controlling the pace of shipments and maintaining a positive pricing posture, thus achieving price increases against the backdrop of cost collapse.
In summary, the current acrylic acid market is in a critical stage of a game between “weakened cost support” and “tight supply and demand pattern”, with the latter temporarily gaining the upper hand.

After the holiday, the price of plasticizer DOP has stopped falling and stabilized
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 13th, the DOP price was 7309.16 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.79% compared to the DOP price of 7367.50 yuan/ton on October 1st. After the holiday, the price of DOP slightly decreased and then stabilized. The operating load of DOP enterprises was weakly consolidated, the operating rate slightly decreased, and the supply of DOP decreased; The raw material isooctanol has stopped falling and rebounded, the price of phthalic anhydride has weakened and fallen, the cost of DOP has stabilized strongly, and the downward pressure on DOP has weakened; Downstream demand is unlikely to improve, with mediocre intentions for DOP procurement inquiries and weak DOP demand transactions. The cost support for both supply and demand is weak, and the price of plasticizers has stopped falling and stabilized after the holiday.
After the holiday, the price of raw material isooctanol stopped falling and rebounded
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 13th, the price of isooctanol was 6550 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.75% compared to the price of 6666.67 yuan/ton on October 1st, and a rebound of 1.03% compared to the price of 6483.33 yuan/ton on October 10th. Partial maintenance of isooctanol equipment in some enterprises resulted in a slight decrease in operating load and supply of isooctanol after the holiday; The profit of isooctanol is on the edge of the cost line, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices. The price of isooctanol has stopped falling and rebounded, and the cost of plasticizers has stopped falling and risen. The downward pressure on DOP has weakened, and the upward support has increased.
After the holiday, the price of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 13th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 6216.67 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 1.22% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride at 6293.33 yuan/ton on October 1st. After the holiday, the price of ortho benzene fell, the price of industrial naphthalene fluctuated and fell, the cost support of phthalic anhydride decreased, the equipment load of phthalic anhydride slightly decreased after the holiday, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises decreased, the supply of phthalic anhydride was sufficient, the downstream plasticizer market fluctuated and fell, the equipment operating load of plasticizer enterprises decreased, and the demand support for phthalic anhydride weakened. The cost of plasticizers has decreased, and there is greater pressure to reduce the DOP of plasticizers after the holiday.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has rebounded and stopped falling, while the price of phthalic anhydride has weakly declined. The downward pressure on the cost of plasticizer DOP has weakened, and the upward support has increased; On the supply side, the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises has slightly decreased, the production of plasticizers has decreased, and the supply of plasticizers has decreased; In terms of demand, the overall economy is sluggish, coupled with anti competition and the elimination of outdated production capacity, resulting in weak downstream demand. In the future, with weak supply and demand and increased cost support, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will stabilize and stop falling.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market continued to decline in September. As of September 30th, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 5450 yuan/ton (including tax), a decrease of 2.77% from 5605 yuan/ton on September 1st.
Supply side: In early September, a total of 220000 tons of equipment in Shandong and Hebei underwent maintenance, and the main factories limited their shipments, resulting in a decrease in market supply and an increase in the price of maleic anhydride; In mid September, the market for maleic anhydride slightly declined, with poor bidding in Yantai in the early stage and continuous price drops. Recently, some manufacturers have limited sales operations, resulting in a slight increase in prices for maleic anhydride manufacturers, but overall supplier prices remain stable; In late September, the overall market for maleic anhydride fell. Prior to the holiday, maleic anhydride factories reduced their inventory, which provided limited support for the market. Downstream unsaturated resins of maleic anhydride had limited procurement, resulting in a poor stocking atmosphere; At the end of the month, the auction price of Wanhua continued to rise, and the factory price also increased, but the overall dealer quotation remained stable. As of September 30th, the factory price of solid anhydride in the maleic anhydride market in Shandong Province is around 5100 yuan/ton, while the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 4800 yuan/ton.
Upstream: In September, the pure benzene market in Shandong experienced ups and downs. In the first half of the year, the market price mainly fell, in the middle half, the market price mainly rose, and in the second half, the market price fell again. On September 1st, the price was 5975.33 yuan/ton; On September 30th, the price was 5848.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.12% from the beginning of the month.
The domestic n-butane market price fluctuated upward in August, and as of September 30th, the price in Shandong was around 4650 yuan/ton.
Downstream: The unsaturated resin market remained stable in mid to early September, with sufficient supply of unsaturated resin. Downstream transactions were average, with limited support for unsaturated resin; In late September, the unsaturated resin market was weak, and during the National Day holiday, most of them had short-term shutdowns or negative reduction plans. Downstream transactions were average, and support for unsaturated resin was limited, resulting in a weak market situation.
Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that during the National Day holiday, the upstream n-butane market for maleic anhydride has fallen, and the cost support for maleic anhydride is limited; But the main downstream unsaturated resin production has gradually resumed, which provides certain support for the procurement of maleic anhydride; In addition, some maleic anhydride enterprises in Shandong have maintenance plans, and the parking facilities have not resumed production in the early stage. The available sources of goods in the main production areas are limited, which has a certain boosting effect on the maleic anhydride market. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will rise slightly in the near future.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke saw a slight increase at the end of September. As of September 30th, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 2383.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from 2357.50 yuan/ton on September 22nd.
The recent decline in crude oil prices is mainly due to OPEC+’s plan to continue increasing production in November, as well as the resumption of crude oil exports from the Kurdish region of Iraq, resulting in a decrease in international oil prices.
Recently, the petroleum coke market has seen a slight increase, with most refineries stabilizing prices and executing orders before the holiday. The price of petroleum coke has fluctuated in recent times. Recently, the shipment of petroleum coke from ports has been acceptable, while the price of sponge coke has slightly increased.
Recently, the market for calcined coke has risen, with new orders signed at the end of the month, and manufacturers showing a strong willingness to increase prices for new orders.
Market forecast: Currently, orders for manufacturers during the holiday period have basically been signed, and downstream purchases are mainly based on demand. After the holiday, there may be an increase in procurement demand, and it is expected that petroleum coke will rise slightly.