price trend
In the second half of June, the domestic PC market continued to decline, with a significant drop in spot prices for various brands. As of June 24th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 13400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.42% from the beginning of the month.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: In the second half of June, the operating rate of domestic PC aggregation enterprises continued to rise. The overall industry load rate has recovered to around 70%, and there are still plans to return the production capacity of aggregation plants in the future. The production loss is gradually shrinking, and the weekly average production has returned to 60000 tons. The smoothness of shipments from the aggregation plant has declined, and the willingness to raise prices has loosened. Overall, the supply side’s support for PC is showing a trend of weakening.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic bisphenol A market consolidated at a low level in June. International crude oil prices have sharply declined, with raw materials such as acetone and phenol fluctuating with each drop. Bisphenol A has limited supply changes and demand remains weak and rigid. Although the spot price has reached a temporary low after a decline at the beginning of the month. However, positive guidance within the market is difficult to achieve, and the market is deadlocked with weak expectations, resulting in overall weak support for PC cost values.
On the demand side: The sales situation of PC downstream factories is at a low season level, and the demand for sheet metal shells is weakening, resulting in low load levels for end enterprises. The current PC prices are rapidly moving in the right direction, with industry players chasing after gains and killing losses, and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. The buyer is cautious in stocking up and has poor willingness to build a warehouse. The liquidity of the supply of goods has slowed down, and merchants’ offers have followed the market trend, resulting in an increase in profit sharing and order taking operations. The low-priced source of goods in the market needs to be digested, which creates a drag on the pricing focus of the aggregation factory. Overall, the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.
post-market forecast
At the end of June, the domestic PC market experienced a sharp decline. The price of upstream bisphenol A remains low and stable, and the cost value is difficult to support PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants continues to increase, and there are still expectations of relaxed supply in the future. On site trading is mainly based on weak demand, with cautious stocking and frequent small orders. At present, the supply and demand of PC are weak, cost expectations are weak, and the market orientation is relatively negative. It is expected that there may still be a risk of decline in the short term.

LLDPE (7042) had an average price of 8301 yuan/ton on June 12th and 7941 yuan/ton on June 17th, a decrease of 1.34%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 10116 yuan/ton on June 12th and 9766 yuan/ton on June 17th, a decrease of 3.46%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on June 12th was 10200 yuan/ton, and on June 17th it was 10125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74%.
Recently, the international crude oil geopolitical risk aversion sentiment has subsided, oil prices have fluctuated and fallen, and the center of gravity of raw material costs has shifted downwards, dragging down the polyethylene market.
The maintenance benefits are gradually diminishing, and the circulation of goods is loose. Multiple sets of polyethylene plants will resume production in mid June. The recovery of shipping in the Middle East, the increase in the arrival volume of imported LDPE at ports, and the surplus of high-pressure material sources are the core reasons for the deepest decline in LDPE. Yangtze Petrochemical has been shut down for long-term maintenance, and there is a temporary shortage of low-pressure materials in the East China region, with some spot stocks resisting the decline.
Off season for agricultural film: The demand for plastic film and greenhouse film has all come to an end, and the production of agricultural film has fallen to a low level this year. The production of packaging film, injection molding, hollowing, and coating has declined, resulting in a backlog of finished product inventory. Downstream factories are all purchasing on demand without any advance replenishment behavior. Traders actively reduce prices and sell off inventory, exacerbating the price decline.
Continued loose supply coupled with downstream off-season drag has led to overall weak volatility of polyethylene in the short term. After a sharp decline, there may be a slight narrow recovery, but the rebound space is limited.

1、 Price trend
On June 6th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei region was 4280 yuan/ton, and on June 12th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei region was 4383 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of ammonium phosphate increased by 2.41%.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the market price of ammonium phosphate has been strong and rising. The price of raw material sulfur has significantly increased, and under cost pressure, the market price of ammonium phosphate has risen steadily. Manufacturers still mainly execute early-stage orders, while downstream purchases are made on demand, resulting in an improved market transaction atmosphere. As of June 12th, the market price of 55 powder ammonium in Hubei region is around 4350-4450 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 4450-4500 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan region it is around 4200 yuan/ton.
In terms of raw material sulfur. Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, sulfur prices have once again risen strongly this week, exceeding 10000 yuan. At present, the port inventory continues to decline, and there is a large gap between market supply and demand. It is expected that sulfur prices will remain high in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the market trend of ammonium phosphate has been dominant in recent days. Due to cost support and tight market supply, it is expected that the short-term market for ammonium phosphate will continue to operate with a strong upward trend. Suggest paying attention to changes in the raw material market.

From June 3rd to June 12th, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell, with an initial market average price of 447020 yuan/ton. As of June 12th, the market average price was 410940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.07%.
Since June, the main contract of Shanghai tin has repeatedly turned back in the range of 390000 to 440000 yuan/ton. The price fluctuated within a wide range this week, with extremely fast direction switching and broad fluctuations being the core color of June.
Supply side
The resumption of tin mining in the Wa State of Myanmar has significantly fallen short of expectations. As of now, due to multiple factors such as operational restrictions, material approvals, and the arrival of the rainy season, the production capacity of the Manchurian tin mine has only been restored to 40% to 50% of its pre mining capacity; The rainy season from May to July further suppresses open-pit mining and transportation, resulting in limited incremental space in the short term. In April, China imported 5678 physical tons of tin ore from Myanmar, a decrease of 22% compared to the previous month, which was only about 36% of the monthly average level before the shutdown. On the Democratic Republic of Congo side, about 6% of tin exports from Bisie mine are obstructed. Indonesia’s refined tin exports in April decreased by over 50% compared to the previous month, and the increase in mineral tax rates to 20% has pushed up long-term costs. Multiple tightening measures on the supply side have established a rigid bottom support for tin prices.
demand side
AI computing power hardware drives tin demand growth, accounting for about 10%, with high price tolerance and clear long-term support. In terms of traditional demand, lead-acid batteries have entered the off-season, production and sales of photovoltaics and new energy vehicles have slowed down, exports of tinplate have significantly declined, and the recovery of consumer electronics is moderate. High priced tin suppresses spot purchases of solder materials, while downstream rigid purchases dominate and there is a weak willingness to replenish inventory. The demand for tin supports the bottom but does not chase up prices, putting upward pressure on tin prices.
comprehensive analysis
As of now, the tin price has gone through an extreme trend of “hitting the top, trampling, and rebounding”. In the short term, it has entered a tug of war between the suppression of the moving average and the bottoming out of demand, with volatility still the main theme; In the medium to long term, tight fundamentals and AI demand still support the upward shift of the price center, but in the short term, inventory and macro pressures need to be digested.

As of June 11th, the price of 0 # zinc was 24152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.25% from the zinc price of 24708 yuan/ton on June 1st.
fundamentals
At the macro level, multiple factors resonate to suppress emotions in the non-ferrous metal sector. The overall stance of the Federal Reserve’s June interest rate meeting is hawkish, coupled with the US May non farm payroll data exceeding expectations, the market is once again facing a combination of “strong employment+rising inflation”, and financial attribute pressure continues. The escalation of the situation in the Middle East has raised concerns about inflation and the risk of economic slowdown, with London zinc prices falling by about 1%, indicating a significant decline in market risk appetite.
Supply side: The current most solid support logic
The processing fee (TC) for zinc concentrate remains at a historically low level, and the pricing of domestic ore in June further declined compared to the previous month. The extremely scarce situation in the mining sector has seriously damaged the profits of smelting enterprises, with processing fees continuously bottoming out and by-product sulfuric acid prices falling. Most smelting plants have already fallen into substantial losses. The passive production reduction forced by this is being realized: the expected increase in centralized maintenance at the domestic smelting end in June has led to a tight output of refined zinc. In addition, LME zinc inventory continues to deplete, providing bottom support for prices.
Demand side: The current biggest suppression factor
With the arrival of the southern rainy season, terminal demand is gradually shifting into the traditional off-season. The operating rate of galvanizing enterprises has decreased, and the operating rate of die-casting zinc alloys has also declined, both at a historically low level. Downstream enterprises generally have a bearish outlook on the future market, maintaining the price of essential needs for procurement and a low willingness to replenish inventory. The terminal consumption sector also lacks highlights: the marginal driving force for the rebound in infrastructure investment growth rate is limited, while the production of automobiles and household appliances has negative growth, the real estate industry remains weak, coupled with a decrease in external demand risk appetite, and overall demand support is insufficient.
comprehensive analysis
The short-term trend has shifted towards weakness, with the market showing a downward trend after high-level fluctuations, but the downward space is constrained by the rigid support of mining shortages and smelting losses. The current market is in a game stage of macro bearish release and fundamental bottom support, and paying attention to 24000 yuan/ton is an important long short watershed. In the medium to long term, in mid to late June, it is important to focus on the substantial realization of the reduction in maintenance and production at the smelting end, as well as whether domestic inventory can continue to decline. These two factors will be the core catalysts for the stabilization and recovery of zinc prices.