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Cobalt Price Panic Fall Caused by Continuous Decline of New Energy Vehicles

I. trend analysis

 

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic cobalt price fell sharply after the festival. As of October 14, the price of cobalt was 286500.00 yuan / ton, down 4.61% from the average price of 300333.34 yuan / ton on October 1. The poor performance of new energy vehicles in September triggered panic in cobalt market, and the price of cobalt fell.

II. Market analysis

1. The rise of international cobalt price slows down

MB cobalt price tends to stabilize

 

It can be seen from the table that the price of MB cobalt rose slightly in October, while the international cobalt price is still in the rising stage, but the driving effect of international cobalt price on domestic cobalt market is weakened, and the domestic cobalt price has lost the momentum of rising.

Increase of cobalt price in LME Market

Sulfamic acid 99.50%

 

It can be seen from the figure that the price of cobalt in LME market has fallen in shock since the end of September. The fall of international cobalt price is bad for domestic cobalt price, and the downward pressure of domestic cobalt market has increased.

Sales of new energy vehicles fell 16% year on year in September

 

According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in September was 80000, down 34.2% year-on-year, which has been down for three consecutive months. From January to September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 872000, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, and the growth rate was significantly lower than that from January to August. In September, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 63000, a year-on-year decrease of 33.1%; the sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 17000, a year-on-year decrease of 38.4%. From January to September, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 692000, a year-on-year decrease of 27.8%; the sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 179000, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%; the sales volume of fuel cell vehicles was 1251, a year-on-year increase of 7.6 times. The sales volume of new energy vehicles fell for three months in a row, with an increasing trend of decline. The sales volume of new energy vehicles did not recover continuously. There was a certain negative voice in the market, and the prospect of new energy vehicles in cobalt city was expected to decrease in the future. Future demand is expected to decline, which is bad for the cobalt market.

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III. future prospects

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business club, believes that the rise of international cobalt price will not fall again, which will have a negative impact on domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt price is under pressure. In terms of demand, new energy vehicles fell sharply year on year for three consecutive months. The market of new energy vehicles did not improve and the decline was expanding, which triggered panic in the domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt price fell sharply. But in the future, new energy vehicles are still the trend in the future. 5g products are full of growth momentum. The supply agreement between Glencore and Greenwich makes the supply gap caused by the reduction of production increase. The reduction of market mobile cobalt inventory has a certain positive impact on cobalt price. Generally speaking, cobalt market has no obvious upward momentum in the near future, and the downward pressure is increasing, but the prospect of future cobalt market is still promising, and the increase of cobalt cost also determines the limited space for cobalt price to fall, and it is expected that the future cobalt price will fluctuate broadly and maintain stability.

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Antimony ingot market prices rose this week (10.7-10.12)

I. price trend

This week (10.7-10.12) domestic 1 antimony ingot prices fell, the domestic market average price at the beginning of the week at 39750 yuan/ton, weekend average price at 40750 yuan/ton, up 2.52%.

On October 11, the Sb Commodity Index was 56.73, up 0.7 points from yesterday, down 44.56% from its peak of 102.32 points in the cycle (2012-10-16), and up 20.75% from its low of 46.98 points on December 24, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-08 to date).

Sulfamic acid 99.80%

II. Market Analysis

Upstream and downstream: on Wednesday, antimony oxide followed the trend of antimony ingot to stop falling and stabilize. This week, the price rose and trading was limited. As of Friday, the average price of antimony trioxide was 99.5% at 3450 yuan/ton and 99.8% at 3600 yuan/ton.

Domestic market: In the first trading week after the festival, the antimony ingot Market is quite confident. Most manufacturers’quotations have been raised, boosted by the 60-day overhaul plan of major domestic factories. The overall price of antimony ingot has risen by about 1000 yuan/ton this week, and the market turnover is still acceptable. By the end of the weekend, 2_low bismuth antimony ingots were 39500 yuan/ton, 1_antimony ingots were 40000 yuan/ton, 0_antimony ingots were 41000 yuan/ton, and 2_high bismuth antimony ingots averaged 38000 yuan/ton.

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Non-ferrous industry: The market has just come back from the National Day holiday with weak performance of important economic data in Europe and the United States. The Federal Reserve is expected to further cut interest rates. The US index is hovering near the 99-point high. Domestic metal pressures are in the first place. However, with the opening of a new round of high-level trade negotiations between China and the United States, market confidence has been boosted, and domestic metal performance has recovered some of the decline.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

In the next week’s domestic and foreign economic data sets, market expectations are weak. Under the downward pressure of the global economy, the US dollar index may be under pressure. The development trend of Sino-US trade negotiations will also lay the performance atmosphere of the market. Next week, China will face delivery. Metal products will be more led by their basic trends. It is expected that the market will continue to hold firm next week and antimony prices will continue to climb. Ability is still high.

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China’s domestic phthalic anhydride market prices fell (10.7-10.12)

First, the trend of the market:

According to statistics, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride dropped slightly. By the end of the weekend, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride was 6850 yuan/ton, which was 2.14% lower than the initial price of 7000 yuan/ton, and 12.18% lower than the same period last year. About 6700-6900 yuan/ton of ortho-phthalic anhydride in Shandong and 6800-7100 yuan/ton of phthalic anhydride in Jiangsu are the mainstream of phthalic anhydride negotiations. There is sufficient spot supply in the market. The manufacturers reflect that the recent situation of goods is not good, and the price of phthalic anhydride has fallen slightly.

II. Market analysis:

Products: Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has fallen down, the onset rate of phthalic anhydride is more than 60%, the spot supply is normal, some manufacturers reflect that the situation of recent goods is not good, the inventory of manufacturers has increased compared with the earlier period, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has slightly fallen. In the near future, the price of the upstream raw material phthalic acid market is mainly fluctuating, the price of the port phthalic acid is not changing much, and there are still devices in the phthalic acid plant for maintenance, but the spot delivery of phthalic acid in the bank is less than that in the first ten days of September, and the affected price in the phthalic anhydride market drops slightly; the downstream plant still maintains the rigid purchase, and the main flow of the on-site phthalic acid source negotiation is 6700-6900 yuan / ton, and the main flow of naphthalene source negotiation is 6200 yuan / ton.- 6300 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 6700-6900 yuan/ton, the market price is slightly lower, some enterprises in North China are declining, downstream start-up is general, on-demand procurement is the main, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride goods are generally on the move, manufacturers’inventory has increased, high-end transaction is blocked, phthalic anhydride prices are lower.

Upstream: the execution price of domestic ortho benzene Sinopec for upstream products is 6900 yuan / ton. As the domestic ortho benzene manufacturers are still under maintenance, the supply of goods within the site is not high, and the price of ortho benzene remains high. However, the price of imported ortho benzene in the port area has declined and the price has declined. Recently, the price of ortho benzene in the port has declined, and the port inventory is low, and the price of external ortho benzene quotation has fallen. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation. However, the downstream demand is not good and the market price of phthalic anhydride is falling.

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Downstream: DOP market prices fell, isooctanol prices temporarily stabilized, DOP raw material costs fell. The price of DOP fell, the downstream of DOP was adjusted by shocks, the customer’s purchasing enthusiasm was stable, the downstream PVC market was adjusted by shocks, the high-end transaction of DOP was blocked, the mainstream transaction price of DOP market was 7700-8000 yuan / ton, the downstream price of terminal was lower, the demand was bad for domestic phthalic anhydride market, and the price of phthalic anhydride market was slightly lower.

3. Future market forecast:

At present, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in the upstream is stable, the terminal demand is reduced, and the decline of DOP price is slowed down. Phthalic anhydride analysts of business associations believe that the market price of phthalic anhydride will remain mainly volatile, with a price of about 6850 yuan/ton.

Sulfamic acid 

Potassium nitrate Market weakened this week (10.8-10.11)

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of domestic potassium nitrate fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of domestic first-class industrial potassium nitrate was 4375.00 yuan/ton. At the weekend, the price of domestic first-class industrial potassium nitrate was 4362.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.29%, and the current price fell by 4.90% compared with last year.

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II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic potassium nitrate Market is weak and downward, the market trading atmosphere is cold and clear, the mentality of potassium nitrate manufacturers is empty, the volume of goods is poor, overall, the starting rate of potassium nitrate manufacturers is at a low level, so the overall stock of potassium nitrate is at a low level, there is no sales pressure, the downstream purchasing volume is a small amount of replenishment, there is basically no backup situation, and the price of potassium nitrate is weak. Domestic potassium nitrate mainstream manufacturers offer 4200-4500 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

The analyst of potassium nitrate of business association thinks that the market of potassium nitrate falls this week. After the festival, the traditional peak season of “Gold SEP, Silver OCT” is inadequate, the spot trade is not warm, and the demand for potassium nitrate is expected to improve greatly in the short term, and the market may be reorganized.

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Domestic ethanol market in China is stable

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of October 10, the average price of ethanol in the domestic market was 5,400 yuan/ton, which fell 0.37% in the same period last month and 3.76% in the same period last year. Domestic ethanol market is mainly stable, and some areas are strong.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic ethanol market is steadily rising, the atmosphere of taking goods in the lower reaches of Shandong province is still acceptable, which supports the booming mood of liquor enterprises and the rise of waterless quotations of large factories; the supply in northern Jiangsu continues to be low, and driven by the surrounding rising trend, the focus of negotiations moves upward; the current market in central China is smooth, and some factories queue up to pick up goods, but Huaxing starts today, and subsequent supply is expected to increase and continue to rise. There is insufficient momentum; the price of corn purchases in Northeast China continues to decline, and liquor companies are watching the market cautiously.

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Industry Chain: Corn: New grain in North China is on the market, corn in the near future is out of storage alternately, the supply of corn market is relatively sufficient, and spot quotation in Northeast China is further declining. But after the National Day holidays, deep processing enterprises in some areas have resumed production, and the rising start-up rate helps to stimulate the demand for maize. Overall, the fundamentals are tepid, but considering the end of the auction and the low level of inventory, potential profits support the price of maize.
Ethyl acetate: The domestic market atmosphere of ethyl acetate is general. The price of raw material acetic acid has been reduced in some areas, and the cost of raw material has a negative impact. At present, the supply and demand fundamentals in the field are generally supported, and shipments are still dominant in East China and North China. Affected by the abundant supply side, South China is declining. It is expected that the domestic ethyl acetate Market will be consolidated in the short term.

3. Future Market Forecast

Ethanol analysts at business associations predict that the domestic ethanol market or high-level consolidation in the short term will weaken in the long run as supply increases.

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