On January 21, the natural rubber commodity index was 40.36, down 0.83 points from yesterday, down 59.64% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 47.95% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber since January 2022
Monitoring shows that since this month (January 21), domestic natural rubber (standard I) in China’s East China market has continued to fluctuate and decline, with the mainstream report of about 13748 yuan / ton on the 1st and about 13610 yuan / ton on the 21st, a decrease of 1%. During this period, the highest price point was 14020 yuan / ton on the 12th, and the lowest price point was 13610 yuan / ton on the 21st, with a maximum amplitude of 2.92%.
According to macro analysis, the international crude oil price fell slightly on January 20. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $85.55/barrel, down US $0.25, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $88.38/barrel, down US $0.06. Previously, affected by tight supply, oil prices continued to rise, hitting a seven-year high. The U.S. crude oil inventory data released one day later showed that the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory increased last week since November last year, and the crude oil was under short-term pressure. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its oil growth forecast for 2022. Market participants generally expect that the mutated virus Omicron has limited impact on the global economic recovery, oil supply is still tight, investors believe that the Fed is not as good as the expected hawks, and oil prices continue to rebound.
According to the industrial analysis, in foreign production areas, Vietnam and northern Thailand have entered the production reduction period since January, while southern Thailand is still in the high production period, and the output of the main production areas in Thailand will gradually decline by the end of the month; Basically all cutting in our domestic area has been stopped. It is reported that the shipping situation has eased slightly recently, the amount of glue arriving at Hong Kong has increased, and land transportation has been blocked in many places due to the overall impact of the epidemic, spring transportation and Winter Olympic Games; On the demand side, more and more enterprises are entering the holiday mode. In addition to the requirements of environmental protection and power restriction, the downstream operating rate has decreased significantly, the tire inventory is high, and the rubber procurement demand continues to be weak.
Figure 3: Weekly K histogram of natural rubber market since January 2022
Figure 4: annual comparison of domestic mainstream trend of natural rubber from 2019 to 2022
Future forecast: in the production and supply reduction season, China’s inventory, especially in Qingdao, has increased significantly and the outbound volume has decreased, resulting in a rapid increase in inventory, while the procurement demand is obviously weak. It is expected that the natural rubber market will continue to fluctuate and weaken around the Spring Festival.