1、 Trend analysis
Nickel prices have fluctuated and risen this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 129100 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.11% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 6.77%.
Macroscopically, the European Central Bank has raised interest rates for the first time in three years, with the three key interest rates increasing by 25 basis points, signaling a global tightening restart. The US PPI surged to 6.5% year-on-year in May, the largest increase in over three years, and inflation stickiness far exceeded expectations. The US President suddenly announced the cancellation of the planned strike against Iran, causing geopolitical risks to cool overnight. Crude oil plummeted by over 8% during trading, and risk aversion quickly receded. Gold and silver rose simultaneously. The US stock market rebounded sharply in response, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average soaring nearly 930 points in a single day, and all three major indexes closing higher. Technology stocks led the rise, driving a rebound in risk appetite.
On the supply side, the approval pace of RKAB in Indonesia dominates the mining sector, with high nickel iron production but evident cost support; MHP and high nickel ice supply are loose. In June 2026, China’s refined nickel production was 31760 tons, a decrease of 5.90% month on month and 7.98% year-on-year; The estimated refined nickel production in China for July is 31440 tons, a decrease of 1.01% month on month and 13.03% year-on-year. At present, the equipment production capacity of domestic refined nickel enterprises is 52265 tons, the operating capacity is 49515 tons, the operating rate is 94.74%, and the capacity utilization rate is 60.77%.
On the demand side: There has been no significant improvement on the demand side, with downstream demand maintaining a pace of rigid procurement, and overall spot transactions being sluggish. The overall demand for downstream electroplating is relatively stable, and it is difficult to see growth in the later stage; The consumption of alloys is gradually recovering, with good demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. Stainless steel shows weak performance and limited terminal acceptance; MHP supports the cost of nickel sulfate, but there is no significant increase in downstream ternary precursor orders, and nickel sulfate prices are mainly fluctuating.
In summary, the macro expectations are fluctuating, and there is a certain contradiction between the decrease in risk appetite for non-ferrous metals and the expectation of sulfur shortage. The nickel ore quota is still the main focus in the near future, and the uncertainty is still high. The pyrometallurgical ore is facing a pullback, but the supply and demand at the smelting end are tight. The overall sulfur support of the wet process is still high, and inventory pressure is still significant. Short term nickel prices are mainly subject to broad adjustments in the market.

On July 8, 2026, the price of organic silicon DMC was adjusted to 13900 yuan/ton. On July 1, the price of organic silicon DMC was adjusted to 14700 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.44%.
1、 Price market description
Entering July, the overall focus of organic silicon DMC prices in the Shandong region of China has shifted downwards. At the beginning of the month, the price of organic silicon DMC remained stable at 14700 yuan/ton. On the 6th, major factories in Shandong adjusted the price of organic silicon DMC downwards to 13900 yuan/ton, widening the overall price difference in the market. Subsequently, the organic silicon DMC market continued to consolidate and operate. As of July 8th, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was around 13900-14300 yuan/ton.
2、 Fundamental analysis
In terms of demand: Currently, the overall performance of the downstream market for organic silicon DMC is still weak, with downstream users mainly digesting previous inventory and showing cautious purchasing behavior towards raw materials, resulting in limited overall demand.
On the supply side: Currently, the organic silicon DMC market is still implementing a production reduction plan, and overall production may continue to decrease in the future. The situation of weak supply and demand is gradually forming, and the supply-demand contradiction is gradually emerging.
3、 Future forecast
From the current situation of both supply and demand, in the short term, the supply-demand pattern is still dominated by mutual constraints, and there is no clear positive driving factor in the market to support the firm recovery of market prices. It is expected that in the short term, the price of organic silicon DMC market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

1、 Price trend
On July 3rd, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Shandong was 7800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton or 4.88% compared to June 26th (reference price for cyclohexanone was 8200 yuan/ton).
This week (6.26-7.3), the overall market situation of cyclohexanone in Shandong showed a downward trend, and the price center of cyclohexanone continued to move towards the low end, with the focus of negotiations shifting towards the low-end. As of July 3rd, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Shandong is around 7800-8000 yuan/ton.
2、 Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
Release of supply pressure: Domestic cyclohexanone plants continue to operate at a high level, with ample spot circulation in the market. Manufacturers actively lower their prices to promote transactions.
Downstream demand is weak: there is insufficient follow-up on the procurement of core downstream caprolactam and adipic acid factories, and there is a low season for demand in the terminal chemical fiber and nylon industries, with no support from a large number of essential orders.
Raw material drag: The upstream pure benzene market fluctuated and fell, providing loose cost support for cyclohexanone. There is no strong support on the cost side, and there is room for discounts in spot trading.
3、 Future forecast
At present, the trading atmosphere in the Shandong cyclohexanone market is light, and the effective support within the market is still weak. It is expected that in the short term, the market situation in Shandong cyclohexanone will mainly be weak and organized. More attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand as well as cost side news.

The domestic PP market stabilized first and then fell in June. The prices of various brand products have significantly decreased. As of June 30th, the benchmark price for PP drawing offered by Shengyi Society was 7566.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.96% from the beginning of the month.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
In June, there were frequent positive signals of high-level peace talks between the United States and Iran in the Middle East. Although it will take some time for shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to fully recover, the market predicts that the Middle East is easing and the geopolitical premium will quickly clear. The international crude oil market has broken through and fallen, causing the collapse of PP’s remote cost value. The propylene sector fell synchronously due to its drag, coupled with the restart of enterprise facilities last month, which increased on-site supply and suppressed spot prices, resulting in a sharp decline in the market in the second half of the month. Overall, the PP raw material market has experienced a significant decline, which has a negative impact on the cost of PP.
Supply side:
In June, some domestic PP companies still implemented maintenance plans, resulting in a decrease in overall operating rates. As of the time of writing, the overall load of the domestic industry is about 65%, and the weekly output is less than 680000 tons. The current inventory position is around 580000 tons, and the overall supply of goods is abundant, but there are plans to increase the return of equipment in the future. Overall, the supply side has average support for spot prices.
In terms of demand:
The current consumption of polypropylene is at a low season level, and downstream markets in the industry are still resistant to high prices. In addition, the market is in a downward channel, and buyers are buying up rather than down, resulting in a cautious overall trading atmosphere. Terminal enterprises can pick up goods as needed, and the warehouse construction operation is average, often resulting in scattered small orders that can be picked up as needed. The improvement in operating rates for small and micro enterprises is limited, while large and medium-sized enterprises continue to stabilize and acquire goods. The overall demand side is in a wait-and-see situation, with poor support for PP.
post-market forecast
In June, the domestic PP market prices stabilized in the first half of the month and fell below the market level in the second half. From a fundamental perspective, there has been a significant drop in the cost side, and although the industry load remains low, there has been limited change in the supply of port imports to the port. But the demand side has entered the off-season market, and it is difficult to increase volume in the short term. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the market has abundant spot resources. Business Society PP analysts believe that the current PP market is weak in both supply and demand, with cost values collapsing and insufficient upward momentum in the future. The market may still be in a downward channel.

Precious metal prices fall in June
As of June 30, 2026, the spot market price of gold was 869.92 yuan/gram, a decrease of 11.79% compared to the spot market price of 986.18 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month (June 1).
On the 30th, the gold price slightly rebounded within the day. In terms of spot trading:
On June 30, 2026, the benchmark price of Shanghai Gold (gold ingots with a standard weight of 1 kilogram and a purity of not less than 99.99%; pricing contract) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 879.06 yuan/gram in the afternoon session, up 14.55 yuan/gram (1.68%) from the earlier benchmark price of 864.51 yuan/gram; Compared to the benchmark price of 886.87 yuan/gram in the afternoon session of the previous trading day, it decreased by 7.81 yuan/gram (-0.88%).
In terms of futures:
The main contract of Shanghai Gold on June 30, 2026, opened at 885.10 yuan/gram and closed at 881.24 yuan/gram, a decrease of 1.11% from yesterday’s settlement price of 891.16 yuan/gram.
Reasons for the decline of precious metal gold in June 2026
The gold price fluctuated and weakened in June, and accelerated to break through in the latter half of the year. The essence is that the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has completely reversed, coupled with the strengthening of the US dollar, the rise of real interest rates on US bonds, the retreat of risk aversion, the stampede of bullish profits, and the resonance decline of capital outflows. The central bank’s gold purchases only form a medium – to long-term bottom line and are unable to prevent monthly corrections.
Expected interest rate cuts completely reverse market trading, ‘restart interest rate hikes’
The US economy and inflation data have significantly exceeded expectations; In May, there were 172000 new non farm jobs added, almost double the expected number, demonstrating strong employment resilience; Core PCE increased by 3.4% year-on-year, CPI rose to 4.2%, and inflation stickiness was evident, far exceeding the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, completely falsifying the logic of interest rate cuts in the first half of the year.
The June Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (Walsh’s first FOMC) exceeded expectations and was hawkish; The interest rate remains unchanged at 3.50% -3.75%, but the dot matrix chart shifts: 9 officials support raising interest rates within 2026, with year-end interest rate expectations raised to 3.8%; The probability of a September interest rate hike in CME interest rate futures pricing has risen to a maximum of 70% -80%, and the market has fully switched from “interest rate cut trading” to “interest rate hike trading”.
The opportunity cost of holding gold has skyrocketed; The interest free nature of gold, coupled with the continuous rise in nominal and real yields of 10-year US Treasury bonds, has led funds to sell gold and switch to US bonds for interest, which is the underlying logic that suppresses gold prices.
The strengthening of the US dollar index directly suppresses gold priced in US dollars
The expectation of interest rate hikes drives the US dollar index to continue rising, breaking a 13 month high and stabilizing above 101; After the strengthening of the US dollar, the cost of buying gold for non US currencies around the world has increased and demand has weakened, putting passive pressure on gold prices and forming a monthly negative correlation trend of “US dollar rise, gold fall”.
Geopolitical safe haven premium fades, ‘buying gold in chaotic times’ phased failure
The marginal easing of the Middle East conflict that supported gold prices in the first half of the year, the opening of Doha negotiations between the United States and Iran, and the decline in risks in the Strait of Hormuz; The safe haven funds that poured into gold in the early stage concentrated and left, lacking safe haven buying to support the bottom. Even if there are occasional local conflicts escalating, the market is more focused on the Federal Reserve’s tightening policy, and the positive impact of hedging is significantly weakened.

High level long positions concentrated settlement+continuous outflow of funds from ETFs, concentrated release of selling pressure
The gold price has accumulated huge profits from long positions since its historical high at the beginning of the year. After the bearish sentiment hit in June, speculative long positions concentrated on taking profits and closing positions, forming a stampede market.
Global gold ETFs continue to experience monthly net outflows, with institutions and investors passively reducing their positions; The profit making effect of the AI sector in the stock market siphons market liquidity, and incremental funds are unwilling to allocate to precious metals.
Goldman Sachs and several other top investment banks have lowered their year-end gold price targets, spreading bearish sentiment in the market and intensifying selling pressure.
Supporting factors for precious metal gold prices in June 2026
In June, the overall gold price fluctuated downwards, but the unilateral decline was not smaller than that of silver prices, and the downward space was continuously constrained. The central bank’s purchase of gold was the strongest rigid bottom support, combined with physical bottom buying, repeated geopolitical hedging, oversold fund replenishment, long-term credit risks of the US dollar, and institutional medium – and long-term allocation support, forming a multi-layered support during the decline process to resist deep market crashes.
Future forecast of precious metal gold prices
The Federal Reserve’s policies and the US inflation and employment data determine the monthly pace, and the central bank’s gold purchases strengthen the downward bottom line. It is expected that in the short term, the price of precious metal gold will experience a wide range of fluctuations, bottoming out, and weak consolidation, making it difficult to unilaterally drop or reverse the trend and rise sharply.