As of May 29th, the price of 0 # zinc was 24842 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% compared to the price of 24814 yuan/ton on May 25th.
supply side
The shortage of mining resources has formed strong support. The processing fee continues to decline, and the domestic zinc concentrate TC weekly ratio has dropped to 550 yuan/ton. The imported ore rich ore quotation is -70~-60 US dollars/ton, and the profit loss of smelters has intensified, with expectations of maintenance and production reduction. Factors such as overseas supply disruptions, the Kazakhstan zinc plant explosion, and changes in Peru’s mining policies have led to a tightening of global zinc concentrate supply. Domestic production is limited, and the tight supply of raw materials and low TC pattern limit the room for increasing zinc ingot production. The production in May is expected to contract month on month.
However, the short-term supply of refined zinc spot is still relatively abundant. Smelting enterprises have only slightly reduced production this week, and there has been no centralized maintenance. The supply contraction has not yet been transformed into a significant destocking of spot, which is currently more reflected in emotional and expected support.
Demand side
There is a marginal rebound during the off-season. Traditional off-season characteristics: The operating rates of galvanizing, die-casting, and zinc oxide have all fallen, and the demand for infrastructure and real estate is weak. Structural highlights: Data shows that orders from domestic galvanizing industry and steel structure enterprises have rebounded, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased. Improvement in export margin: After the adjustment of the Shanghai London price ratio, the export window margin has opened, easing domestic inventory pressure.
comprehensive analysis
This week, zinc prices have shown a pattern of strong fluctuations in the game between strong support from the mining sector and suppression from the off-season demand. It is expected that zinc prices will continue to fluctuate strongly within the range.
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