This week (8.24-8.28), the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi region fell, with an average market price of 15900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 15850 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.13%.
The following analysis is based on fundamentals:
Supply and demand side

The maintenance and resumption of production work on the supply side continues to be implemented, and the operating rate of the entire industry maintains a steady upward trend. Currently, the overall supply in the spot market is in a relatively loose range. At present, the sales strategies of magnesium smelting enterprises are showing obvious differentiation: small and medium-sized manufacturers are facing dual pressures of inventory backlog and capital turnover, coupled with the current demand for cash flow recovery in a loss making state. The willingness to follow the market and lower prices continues to increase, and low-priced sources continue to emerge in the market, becoming the core influencing factor in lowering the overall price center.

The overall market operation on the demand side remains stable. The domestic industrial chain generally maintains a low inventory turnover mode in various links, and the entire industry generally implements a procurement strategy of on-demand purchase. The market lacks effective support from centralized buying. From the perspective of exports, although the summer break in Europe and America has gradually entered its final stage and the overseas market inquiry volume has shown a marginal rebound, the attitude of overseas buyers to lower prices is still firm, and new orders are generally dominated by small batch essential orders.

Raw material end

The overall increase in core raw material prices this week has driven up the comprehensive production cost of magnesium. The price of coal in the production area continues to rise against the trend, reaching a new high for the year; The market quotation of ferrosilicon also shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend. The current comprehensive cost of magnesium has significantly exceeded the spot market price, and the industry as a whole has entered a loss zone. The extent of losses for small and medium-sized smelting enterprises continues to expand, further highlighting the situation of cash flow pressure.
integrated forecasting
The short-term magnesium price is in a weak equilibrium pattern of “cost support at the bottom and demand suppression at the top”. The space for deep decline is limited, but the rebound momentum is insufficient. Follow up on the order recovery after the end of overseas summer vacation and the downstream replenishment rhythm of “Golden September and Silver October”.

As of August 26th, the domestic isobutyraldehyde price was 8133.33 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 22.00% compared to the isobutyraldehyde price of 6666.67 yuan/ton on August 1st; The price of isobutyraldehyde decreased by 1.21% from 8233.33 yuan/ton on August 25th. The downstream market for neopentyl glycol is stabilizing, but the demand for isobutyraldehyde still remains supported. The price of raw material propylene is fluctuating and falling, and the demand support for cost reduction is weakening. The price of isobutyraldehyde has fallen from its high level.
The price of raw material propylene first rose and then fell
On August 26th, the propylene price was 8807.67 yuan/ton, which increased first and then decreased compared to the propylene price of 7927.67 yuan/ton on August 1st, with an increase of 11.10%; Compared to the high of 9017.67 yuan/ton on August 20th, the price of propylene has fallen by 2.33%. Since mid August, the price of propylene has fallen from a high level, the cost of isobutyraldehyde has decreased, and the downward pressure on isobutyraldehyde has increased.
Downstream isobutyraldehyde demand support weakens
The price of neopentyl glycol increased significantly in August. On August 26th, Yantai Wanhua quoted 9950-10100 yuan/ton, a significant increase from the August 1st quotation of 8850-8000 yuan/ton, and stabilized from the August 20th price; The price of neopentyl glycol quoted by Luxi Chemical is 8400 yuan/ton, a significant increase from the price of 7700 yuan/ton quoted on August 1st, and the price has stabilized compared to August 20th. In August, the price of neopentyl glycol rose sharply. With the price reaching a high level, downstream absorption was weak, and market fear of heights gradually emerged. There were differences in opinions among industry players, and the price of neopentyl glycol fell in the middle of the month, weakening the support for demand for isobutyraldehyde.
Supply continues to tighten
The continuous tightening of the supply side was the core driving force behind the price increase in August. The production of isobutyraldehyde has significantly decreased, and the maintenance of the Wanhua plant in Yantai has reduced the production of isobutyraldehyde to 60%. From August 7th to 13th, the weekly production of isobutyraldehyde was 1067 tons, with a weekly consumption of 8755.8 tons, resulting in a supply-demand gap of 1914.25 tons; From August 14th to 20th, production further decreased to 976 tons and consumption was 5713 tons. Leading enterprises continue to engage in additional external procurement, and isobutyraldehyde is in short supply with high prices remaining firm.
Market Overview and Forecast
Analysts believe that the current price of isobutyraldehyde is in the high range of the nearly one-year cycle. The upstream propylene market first rose and then fell, with weakened cost support; The downstream market for neopentyl glycol has declined, but there is still some support for isobutyraldehyde. Overall, the demand for cost reduction is weak, and the upward momentum of isobutyraldehyde has significantly narrowed. At the same time, the tightening of supply has limited the downward space of isobutyraldehyde prices. In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the future, and the expectation of a mid-term decline in isobutyraldehyde is increasing.

This week, the overall supply remains tight, with low inventory levels in enterprises and overall price increases, resulting in a slight rebound in the market. As of August 21st, the mainstream negotiated price for tank self pickup in the East China market is 12200-12400 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared to last week; The mainstream negotiated price for delivery within the Shandong market area is between 12050-12150 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton compared to last week.
Continuous tight supply:
During the week, Zhejiang Petrochemical Company’s 520000 tons/year acrylonitrile plant was shut down for maintenance on August 14th due to a malfunction of a 130000 ton production line, which is expected to last for about 20 days. Currently, the overall operating load has dropped to 70%. According to statistics, this week (August 14-20), the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached 64.33%, a decrease of 4.99% compared to the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 75100 tons, which is 0.58 million tons compared to the previous cycle. The industry’s capacity utilization rate is low, and the overall supply of spot goods continues to be scarce. At the same time, the inventory of various acrylonitrile production enterprises remains low. As of August 19th, the total inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories is about 33500 tons, which is+0.05 million tons compared to last week.
Downstream demand decline:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries has decreased, with ABS capacity utilization rate at 59.70%, a decrease of -1.0% compared to last week; The capacity utilization rate of the acrylic fiber industry is 51.48%, which is -1.99% higher than last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 50.19%, which was -0.35% compared to last week. Henan Zhengjia stopped for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in overall downstream demand.
Rising raw material costs:
During the week, the cost of raw materials increased, while at the same time, the price range of acrylonitrile was adjusted, resulting in a decrease in theoretical production profit. According to statistics, as of August 21st, the mainstream closing price of Shandong propylene market is based on 8840-9000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 8920 yuan/ton, an increase of 345 yuan/ton from last week; The average production cost of acrylonitrile is 11104 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 4.02%. The average production profit is 1016 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of -500 yuan/ton.
Post production forecast:
At present, the supply expectation in the northern market is increasing, and it is expected that spot prices will continue to rise with resistance. However, the inventory of various enterprises is low, and the driving force for price increase still exists. The resource supply in the East China region is still tight. However, considering the incremental plan next month, buying is still cautious, and the downstream industries have poor profits from the demand side. There is still a clear resistance to the current acrylonitrile price. The on-site transactions are mainly driven by rigid demand buying, suppressing the market rebound rhythm. The market may maintain range oscillation. Overall, the news expectation is still unclear, especially with frequent supply side variables, and acrylonitrile prices will continue to operate at a high level.

In August, the domestic EVA market saw a narrow consolidation, with a clear divergence in trends between photovoltaic grade and general materials, and an overall lack of unilateral upward and downward momentum. At the beginning of the month, due to partial equipment maintenance and low inventory support from petrochemical plants, EVA remained at a high level; Affected by the traditional off-season in the middle of the month, transactions were weak and prices slightly decreased. As of August 18th, the benchmark price of EVA was 10333 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% from the beginning of the month at 10383 yuan/ton.
On the supply side, the operating rate of the domestic EVA industry remained in the range of 64-70% in August, with some devices undergoing maintenance and load reduction; Production enterprises have increased their efforts to switch to photovoltaic materials, resulting in an 8-10% increase in photovoltaic grade output compared to the previous period, while the output of general materials has been passively compressed. The overseas 300000 ton EVA plant will resume production in mid August, and the imported goods will gradually arrive at the port to supplement the domestic supply of high-end materials. The inventory in the petrochemical plant remains low; Social inventory has accumulated slightly, with the increase mainly concentrated in general material grades, suppressing the rebound space of general material prices.
On the cost side, Brent crude oil fluctuated within the range, while naphtha drove domestic ethylene spot prices to maintain between 7900-8100 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of vinyl acetate in East China is 6500-6700 yuan/ton, which does not have a strong pull on EVA. The complete cost of EVA oil head is about 8700-9100 yuan/ton, which provides support for the cost, but the downward transmission is not smooth, resulting in profit differentiation for the enterprise.
The demand side is polarized, and the production schedule of photovoltaic film companies in August increased by 6-7% compared to July. Long term cooperative orders remain stable, and the demand for photovoltaic grade EVA is supported by strong demand; Traditional downstream industries such as shoe materials and packaging are in a low season, with sluggish terminal production and only maintaining on-demand procurement, resulting in widespread price cutting and dragging down the general materials market.
Looking ahead to the future, the forecast for the future is that EVA will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Photovoltaic materials rely on adhesive film production to maintain stable prices, but there is insufficient motivation for a significant increase; General materials still face slight downward pressure due to the off-season. With the restoration of maintenance equipment and the continuous arrival of imported goods at the port, the supply is further released, and the price increase space is limited.

Recently, the domestic market for 85% industrial formic acid has shown a pattern of first stabilizing and then rising, followed by a sideways stalemate. As of August 17th, the benchmark price of 85% industrial grade formic acid was 1900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.7% from the beginning of the month. The market is fiercely contested between long and short positions, and prices are influenced by inventory levels, export orders, and equipment resumption progress, resulting in an overall weak equilibrium situation.
At the beginning of the market, the spot price of formic acid remained stable at around 1800 yuan/ton for a long time. Domestic downstream terminals have not yet shown a significant rebound, and industries such as leather, medicine, and pesticides are mainly focused on essential procurement, with overall domestic demand showing a flat performance. However, the overall inventory of production enterprises is at a low level, and the supply contraction caused by early equipment maintenance has formed a bottom support for spot prices. Enterprises prioritize the execution of pre signed orders for shipments. Although some maintenance equipment has been restarted and put into operation, the new supply of goods has not fully impacted the market. The inventory advantage has allowed the market to maintain stability in stages, and the market has entered a dynamic game of supply and demand.
Subsequently, the market experienced a significant upward trend, with the average transaction price of 85% formic acid rising to 1900 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.5%. This round of price increases is not driven by domestic demand, and the core driving force comes from two aspects. Firstly, the low inventory pattern of factories continues, and the spot supply is not loose; Secondly, export orders have improved, and the increase in external demand has effectively absorbed some of the domestic production capacity, driving up spot prices.
After the price surged, the market quickly entered a sideways stalemate phase, with prices stabilizing at 1900 yuan/ton and no longer continuing to rise. The lack of sustained support from favorable factors has become the main constraint, with limited follow-up efforts from domestic downstream and a lack of sustained domestic demand to further boost the market. The pricing mentality of production enterprises tends to be cautious and conservative, and they have not chosen to actively continue to raise prices. Market trading has returned to rationality, and overall weak balance operation has been maintained.
In the future, there is a risk of release of supply side pressure, and the incremental resumption of production of maintenance equipment in the early stage will gradually flow into the market. If there is no substantial improvement in domestic demand, relying solely on inventory and export support will be difficult to sustain the upward trend, and formic acid still has certain downward expectations. Follow up market trends, with a focus on the recovery of domestic downstream production, the sustainability of export orders, and the pace of releasing new sources of goods.