1、 Trend analysis
This week, copper prices first rose and then fell. As of July 17th, copper prices were reported at 104191 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.77% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 33.48%.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, with 300600 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, down 1.51% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, the US June CPI fell 0.4% month on month, PPI fell 0.3% month on month, and inflation data was generally lower than expected. The US dollar index was under pressure and fell to a three week low near 100.50. However, during a congressional hearing, the Federal Reserve reiterated its “zero tolerance” for high inflation and downplayed the significance of the improvement in monthly data.
Supply side: Supply side disruptions have further intensified this week. The copper concentrate processing fee TC continues to have a deep negative value, and the long-term bidding has been as low as -250 US dollars per dry ton; The mainstream fixed number transactions are concentrated between -135 and -140 US dollars per ton. In Chile, due to the strong winter front system, heavy snowfall and rainfall may cause short-term disturbances to road transportation and port loading in the northern core mining area. In May, major copper companies in Chile saw a significant decline in production, with Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine, experiencing a year-on-year decrease of 17.6%. The new chairman of Chile’s National Copper Company announced that the assessment core will shift from “production expansion” to “profit priority”, further weakening the supply elasticity. Domestically, as of July 16th, the social inventory of electrolytic copper in mainstream regions of China has dropped to 123400 tons, a decrease of 16600 tons from July 13th.
On the demand side: The demand side continues to be sluggish during the off-season, but high prices are significantly suppressed. Downstream enterprises have weak willingness to accept goods at high prices, and the spot premium is fluctuating around 300 yuan/ton. The trading of refined copper rods in the market has not shown a significant rebound, and orders rely on the purchasing support of large end users. The operating rate of small and medium-sized downstream enterprises is relatively low. LME copper inventory has dropped to 300600 tons, the lowest since February, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts has risen to about 43%.
In summary, the tight supply and mining situation is difficult to reverse, and the negative value of TC depth continues; On the inventory side, domestic social inventory continues to hit a new low for the year, with low inventory providing solid support. But be cautious: weak consumption during the off-season and weak willingness to stock up at high prices downstream; The premium for US copper has dropped to around $340 compared to London copper; COMEX’s high inventory continues to distort global trade flows. Overall, the bullish logic in the industry is still solid, but macro and geopolitical uncertainties have increased, and it is expected that copper prices may weaken and fluctuate in the short term.

1、 Price trend
As of July 16th, the reference average price of urea market in Shandong Province, China is 1770 yuan/ton, which is 1.73% lower than the reference average price of 1801 yuan/ton on July 10th.
2、 Market analysis
market situation
This week, the domestic urea market continued to operate weakly. The urea futures market is weakening, which is bearish for the spot market. At present, there is sufficient supply in the urea market, and there is a slight increase in agricultural demand. As of July 16th, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1710-1780 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1760-1790 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1700-1790 yuan/ton, Hubei is around 1720-1760 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1850-1870 yuan/ton.
Supply and demand situation
In terms of supply, the current operating rate of urea enterprises is relatively high, the market supply is sufficient, and daily production remains high. In terms of demand, the agricultural demand for urea has slightly improved, downstream fertilizer procurement has increased, and industrial demand remains flat.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that the domestic urea market has been declining recently. At present, although the demand for urea has improved, there is a large supply of goods in the market and inventory pressure is high. It is expected that the domestic urea market will be weak in the short term, mainly due to consolidation and operation.

1、 Trend analysis
Nickel prices have fluctuated and risen this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 129100 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.11% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 6.77%.
Macroscopically, the European Central Bank has raised interest rates for the first time in three years, with the three key interest rates increasing by 25 basis points, signaling a global tightening restart. The US PPI surged to 6.5% year-on-year in May, the largest increase in over three years, and inflation stickiness far exceeded expectations. The US President suddenly announced the cancellation of the planned strike against Iran, causing geopolitical risks to cool overnight. Crude oil plummeted by over 8% during trading, and risk aversion quickly receded. Gold and silver rose simultaneously. The US stock market rebounded sharply in response, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average soaring nearly 930 points in a single day, and all three major indexes closing higher. Technology stocks led the rise, driving a rebound in risk appetite.
On the supply side, the approval pace of RKAB in Indonesia dominates the mining sector, with high nickel iron production but evident cost support; MHP and high nickel ice supply are loose. In June 2026, China’s refined nickel production was 31760 tons, a decrease of 5.90% month on month and 7.98% year-on-year; The estimated refined nickel production in China for July is 31440 tons, a decrease of 1.01% month on month and 13.03% year-on-year. At present, the equipment production capacity of domestic refined nickel enterprises is 52265 tons, the operating capacity is 49515 tons, the operating rate is 94.74%, and the capacity utilization rate is 60.77%.
On the demand side: There has been no significant improvement on the demand side, with downstream demand maintaining a pace of rigid procurement, and overall spot transactions being sluggish. The overall demand for downstream electroplating is relatively stable, and it is difficult to see growth in the later stage; The consumption of alloys is gradually recovering, with good demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. Stainless steel shows weak performance and limited terminal acceptance; MHP supports the cost of nickel sulfate, but there is no significant increase in downstream ternary precursor orders, and nickel sulfate prices are mainly fluctuating.
In summary, the macro expectations are fluctuating, and there is a certain contradiction between the decrease in risk appetite for non-ferrous metals and the expectation of sulfur shortage. The nickel ore quota is still the main focus in the near future, and the uncertainty is still high. The pyrometallurgical ore is facing a pullback, but the supply and demand at the smelting end are tight. The overall sulfur support of the wet process is still high, and inventory pressure is still significant. Short term nickel prices are mainly subject to broad adjustments in the market.

On July 8, 2026, the price of organic silicon DMC was adjusted to 13900 yuan/ton. On July 1, the price of organic silicon DMC was adjusted to 14700 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.44%.
1、 Price market description
Entering July, the overall focus of organic silicon DMC prices in the Shandong region of China has shifted downwards. At the beginning of the month, the price of organic silicon DMC remained stable at 14700 yuan/ton. On the 6th, major factories in Shandong adjusted the price of organic silicon DMC downwards to 13900 yuan/ton, widening the overall price difference in the market. Subsequently, the organic silicon DMC market continued to consolidate and operate. As of July 8th, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was around 13900-14300 yuan/ton.
2、 Fundamental analysis
In terms of demand: Currently, the overall performance of the downstream market for organic silicon DMC is still weak, with downstream users mainly digesting previous inventory and showing cautious purchasing behavior towards raw materials, resulting in limited overall demand.
On the supply side: Currently, the organic silicon DMC market is still implementing a production reduction plan, and overall production may continue to decrease in the future. The situation of weak supply and demand is gradually forming, and the supply-demand contradiction is gradually emerging.
3、 Future forecast
From the current situation of both supply and demand, in the short term, the supply-demand pattern is still dominated by mutual constraints, and there is no clear positive driving factor in the market to support the firm recovery of market prices. It is expected that in the short term, the price of organic silicon DMC market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

1、 Price trend
On July 3rd, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Shandong was 7800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton or 4.88% compared to June 26th (reference price for cyclohexanone was 8200 yuan/ton).
This week (6.26-7.3), the overall market situation of cyclohexanone in Shandong showed a downward trend, and the price center of cyclohexanone continued to move towards the low end, with the focus of negotiations shifting towards the low-end. As of July 3rd, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Shandong is around 7800-8000 yuan/ton.
2、 Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
Release of supply pressure: Domestic cyclohexanone plants continue to operate at a high level, with ample spot circulation in the market. Manufacturers actively lower their prices to promote transactions.
Downstream demand is weak: there is insufficient follow-up on the procurement of core downstream caprolactam and adipic acid factories, and there is a low season for demand in the terminal chemical fiber and nylon industries, with no support from a large number of essential orders.
Raw material drag: The upstream pure benzene market fluctuated and fell, providing loose cost support for cyclohexanone. There is no strong support on the cost side, and there is room for discounts in spot trading.
3、 Future forecast
At present, the trading atmosphere in the Shandong cyclohexanone market is light, and the effective support within the market is still weak. It is expected that in the short term, the market situation in Shandong cyclohexanone will mainly be weak and organized. More attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand as well as cost side news.