According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, zinc prices will show a trend of first suppressing and then rising in 2025, with a price of 25846 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 23276 yuan/ton at the end of the year. Overall, zinc prices will fall by 9.94% in 2025.
In 2025, the overall zinc market will show a significant trend of “first suppression and then rebound”. In the first three quarters, due to the dual impact of unexpected supply growth and the continued escalation of trade frictions between China and the United States, zinc prices continued to decline and hit the lowest level of the year; In the fourth quarter, there was a divergence in the trends of domestic and foreign markets, with the accelerated release of new smelting capacity in China. The price of zinc in Shanghai fell into a low range of fluctuations, and there was a trend of price correction at the end of the year. In the context of increased supply and differentiated demand structure in 2026, zinc prices are expected to be under overall pressure and maintain range fluctuations.
1、 Current situation of zinc supply side and expectations for 2026
The supply of zinc ore from overseas mines has increased, but smelters are showing a trend of reducing production. On the other hand, in China, the smelting production has achieved a significant increase, which has led to a change in the global supply pattern of zinc elements, gradually converging and concentrating in China.
Global zinc ore production by 2025
The mining increment in 2026 will be concentrated in five major projects:
1. The five main mines
Ozernoye、Kipushi、 The five major projects of Huoshaoyun, Tizapa, and Lady Loretta will collectively increase production by 260000 tons in 2026, accounting for 68% of the global mining increment.
2. Concentrated regional distribution
The newly added production capacity is concentrated in Russia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, China, Mexico, and Australia, with dispersed geographical distribution but controllable production pace.
3. Strong cost competitiveness
The cash cost of newly invested mines is generally below $2000/ton, which has strong market competitiveness and supports long-term stable supply
4. High front and low back trend
The increment of mines is mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, with a slowdown in growth rate in the second half, forming a “high in the front and low in the back” supply rhythm.
Analysis of Zinc Smelting in 2026
It is estimated that China’s smelting capacity will increase from 7 million tons to 7.3 million tons, and 250000 tons will be added overseas (secondary zinc from South Korea, India and Türkiye). The potential export elasticity will reach 300000 tons.
2、 Current situation of zinc demand and expectations for 2026
Galvanizing accounts for 54% of global zinc demand and is a core part of consumption. As a fundamental support, it is widely used in the fields of construction and infrastructure.
Zinc used in construction accounts for 58%
Accounting for 58% of downstream zinc applications, but limited growth due to the sluggish real estate market. The slowdown of urbanization has weakened the demand for zinc in the traditional construction industry.
Automotive demand accounts for 18%
The automotive industry has a stable demand for galvanized steel plates and strong resistance to cycles. The development of new energy vehicles has driven a slight increase in the amount of galvanized structural components.
Photovoltaic drive increases to 5%
The large-scale construction of photovoltaic brackets is driving new demand for galvanized zinc materials. It is expected that there will be an additional demand for 120000 tons of zinc in 2026, becoming a key growth point.
It is expected that by 2026, the drag on demand for zinc in the infrastructure and real estate sectors may slow down, while the automotive sector in the transportation sector is expected to maintain a high momentum. Overall, it is expected that the growth rate of zinc demand will remain weak in 2026, but the resilience of domestic terminal demand is stronger than that of overseas markets.

3、 Inventory analysis
As of December 2025, the global explicit inventory of zinc is approximately 153800 tons, and the absolute value of inventory is at a seasonal low level in the past five years. The cumulative destocking amount for the whole year of 2025 is about 110000 tons. Against the backdrop of oversupply expectations on the supply side, the low inventory situation and the trend of continuous inventory reduction have provided solid support for zinc prices.
summary
In 2026, the zinc trade pattern is undergoing a profound evolution, gradually moving from the previous one-way import dependence model to a new stage of development in which domestic and foreign markets are mutually linked and interdependent. In this process, the international environmental situation, changes in regional supply and demand dynamics, and policy adjustments have all become key variables affecting the evolution of the pattern.
Overall analysis shows that by 2026, the global zinc ingot market is likely to be in a tightly balanced state. Among them, the surplus of refined zinc in the Chinese market is expected to further alleviate, while the global supply of zinc ore may still remain tight. In such a market environment, due to the support provided by mining costs and the bottoming out effect of structural demand, zinc prices will demonstrate strong resilience. It is expected that the zinc price center for the whole year will remain roughly the same as t

his year’s level, and the main contract price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 21000-25000 yuan/ton.

On December 30th, the average market price in East China was 322160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.23% from the previous trading day. The mainstream price range for 1 # tin ingots in the domestic spot tin market is 321500-323000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 322000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21400 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
Affected by the weakened sentiment of the night market commodity market, the price of Shanghai tin plummeted significantly. However, the decline today narrowed compared to the previous period, and the main contract ultimately closed down 4.68%, at 326330 yuan/ton.
Previously, the prices of precious metals and copper continued to rise and repeatedly broke new highs. Under the effect of capital spillover, the tight supply and demand situation of Shanghai tin attracted the attention of funds, and its price reached the highest level of 350000 yuan. However, downstream market demand remains weak, with limited acceptance of current prices. Coupled with the accelerating pace of Myanmar’s resumption of production, the marginal fundamentals are gradually showing signs of weakening, causing Shanghai tin prices to fall from their high levels.
Recently, tin prices have continued to fluctuate within the high range, and the trading atmosphere in the market appears quite quiet. Traders generally adopt a cautious and wait-and-see attitude, and their enthusiasm for quoting has significantly decreased, mainly due to the current relatively high tin prices and weak willingness of downstream enterprises to receive goods. Most end users choose to stay put and wait, only releasing a small number of orders based on rigid demand when prices experience a pullback.
In terms of follow-up, the supply of small brand goods shows a trend of around 400 yuan/ton with a flat to rising price for the January contract; The cloud prefix source of goods has a premium of around 400-700 yuan/ton for the January contract; Yunxi’s source of goods offers a premium of around 700-1000 yuan/ton for the January contract.

Starting from mid December, PTA prices continued to strengthen. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the end of December, the spot price of PTA in East China was 5045 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.16% compared to December 16th.
The supply and demand pressure of PTA is not high, and mainstream factories have actively stopped for maintenance and load control under low processing fees. The maintenance of PTA units is more concentrated in November and December. As of December 29th, the PTA production rate is around 72%, and the market supply is expected to continue to decrease. At present, PTA continues to reduce inventory, although there was a seasonal decrease or slight accumulation of downstream polyester inventory in January and February, the overall inventory pressure is low and the fundamentals are stable.
Crude oil staged low rebound, boosting costs. As of December 26th, the settlement price of the February WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $56.74 per barrel, and the settlement price of the February Brent crude oil futures contract was $60.60 per barrel. The current situation between the United States and Venezuela is unstable, but it is not expected to escalate comprehensively in the short term, and there is an expectation of easing the situation between Russia and Ukraine. The support for oil prices from the geopolitical situation will also weaken.
The downstream market lacks the driving force to chase after the rise, and polyester suffers from both losses and production cuts. The decline in load has accelerated in the mid to late months. The winter orders for terminal weaving have basically ended, and due to the delayed Spring Festival in 2026, spring orders are generally postponed, mainly consisting of small and scattered orders. Under the bearish expectation, some textile factories may take early holidays.
Business analysts believe that as the off-season for textiles deepens, downstream enthusiasm for chasing price increases is hindered. However, the current PTA raw material support is strong, coupled with low processing fees, and it is expected that PTA will continue to maintain a strong pattern in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province slightly declined this week (12.22-12.26), with an average market price of 15725 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 15700 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.16%.
This week, the overall change in the domestic magnesium ingot market was limited, with market prices mainly stabilizing through consolidation, and the overall trend of weak and stable operation continued. According to market research conducted by Friday, the quotes from mainstream factories in Fugu area still remain at the level of 15700 yuan/ton including tax in foreign exchange, and other regional markets also maintain a stable price trend.
Supply and demand side
In terms of supply, the transaction price of magnesium ingots has been below the cost line of magnesium smelting enterprises for a long time. With the rise of coal prices, magnesium smelting enterprises have become increasingly willing to raise prices, and some enterprises even choose not to quote. In addition, several magnesium smelting companies are planning to reduce production or switch to building new magnesium alloy production capacity.
In terms of demand, the overall demand performance is relatively weak, and coupled with the continuous appreciation of the RMB, the prices offered by the demand side are difficult to match the current market situation. Downstream customers and intermediaries have a low acceptance of the current price level and are waiting for the right opportunity to enter the market for procurement, with an overall cautious purchasing behavior.
raw material end
Affected by factors such as the continuous rise in coal prices and the decline in orchid charcoal prices, the cost of magnesium smelting has further increased, and the loss situation of magnesium smelting enterprises has further intensified.
comprehensive analysis
The market has been under continuous pressure recently, with significant price differences between supply and demand sides. At present, coal prices are at a high level, and transaction prices are difficult to cover production costs. In this situation, the quotations of magnesium smelting enterprises will further present a differentiated pattern. It is expected that the subsequent market price stalemate will be effectively alleviated after the gradual release of magnesium alloy production capacity.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, the hydrogen peroxide market in the first eight months of 2025 was mainly characterized by wide fluctuations, with prices ranging from 680-740 yuan/ton and an overall increase of 0.48%. Starting from September, hydrogen peroxide experienced a strong upward trend, surging for two months with an increase of nearly 33%. After a sharp rise in the hydrogen peroxide market, it has experienced a sharp decline. As of December 25th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market has fallen to 776 yuan/ton, a decrease of over 16% compared to early November. By 2025, the overall price of hydrogen peroxide will increase by 10.95%.
The main reason for the limited upward trend of hydrogen peroxide market in 2025 is loose supply and weak terminal demand.
Supply side: It is expected to add 4.85 million tons of production capacity throughout the year, but the production progress is constrained by market conditions, resulting in a low industry operating rate.
Demand side: Long term losses and unstable production of caprolactam downstream of the main force; The overall performance of the paper industry is average, with a flat demand for hydrogen peroxide.
The contradiction between supply and demand has led to a sluggish peak season for the hydrogen peroxide market in 2025, with weak fluctuations in the first eight months. The sharp rise in the market from September to October is mainly due to the temporary tightening of supply, while from November to December, the upward trend remains weak, with weak downturns being the main focus.
How will the hydrogen peroxide market perform in 2026?
In 2026, the core contradiction in the hydrogen peroxide industry is difficult to change, and there is insufficient momentum for a significant increase.
Short term trend: The current high price is expected to be difficult to maintain. With the resumption of production of the equipment that stopped in December and the possible decrease in downstream caprolactam load after New Year’s Day, the situation of oversupply in the market may reappear, and there is pressure for prices to fall from high levels.
Medium – to long-term challenge: overcapacity. In the long run, the industry still has nearly 20 million tons of planned construction capacity in the future, and the trend of “oversupply” is difficult to reverse in the short term. Process upgrade pressure: Currently, there are still about 11.07 million tons of production capacity in the industry using the outdated “acid-base fixed bed” process that needs to be phased out, accounting for 35%, facing pressure for technological transformation or withdrawal. However, relying solely on the elimination of old equipment is difficult to offset the huge amount of new production capacity, making it difficult for the industry to “slim down”.
baseline scenario
Moderate growth in supply and demand, with demand in the high-end sector offsetting some of the weakness in traditional industries. The cost pressure is relieved, and the price range of industrial grade hydrogen peroxide fluctuates.
Optimistic scenario
The demand for new energy and semiconductors exceeded expectations, coupled with intensified environmental policies to stimulate water treatment demand. The optimization of supply side production capacity is accelerating, and the increase in industry concentration is driving up the price center, especially for high-end products that may experience structural shortages.
Pessimistic scenario
The downward pressure on the global economy has intensified, with weak demand in the manufacturing industry and an excess of new production capacity. The intensification of low price competition has put downward pressure on the price of industrial grade hydrogen peroxide, leading to further contraction of industry profits.
Business Society’s hydrogen peroxide analyst believes that in 2026, the overall domestic hydrogen peroxide market may be better than in 2025. Due to oversupply and a slowdown in demand growth, the hydrogen peroxide market will continue to fluctuate widely, with an overall range of around 700-1000 yuan/ton.