In the past week (July 22-28), PA6 spot prices maintained a sideways consolidation of 12666.67 yuan/ton in the early stage, and slightly fell back to 12600 yuan/ton on July 28, with a daily decline of 0.53%. After an overall surge during the week, there was a slight correction. On a technical level, the price was at a high level in the short-term cycle earlier this week. On July 28th, a short-term dead cross signal appeared where the 10 day moving average crossed the 20 day moving average. The price was positioned at a mid to high level within a year for the whole year. The previous round of bottoming out and rebounding market came to an end, and the upward momentum weakened.
2、 Cost analysis
The rigid rise in the cost of upstream caprolactam forms bottom support: Sinopec raised the weekly closing price of caprolactam to 12190 yuan/ton in the third week of July, an increase of 595 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The strength of pure benzene raw materials combined with routine maintenance of some caprolactam units tightened the market spot supply, and the continuous increase in monomer prices directly raised the production cost of PA6 polymerization. The significant downward space was locked in by raw material costs. The long-term consumption of caprolactam in the 280000 ton membrane grade slicing project of Yueyang Guangju New Materials has also formed a medium to long term bottom support for the monomer market, and there is no trend collapse foundation on the cost side.
The compression of processing profits limits the space for enterprises to make concessions: Currently, the upward guidance of slicing prices is weak, downstream resistance to high prices, and the processing profits of aggregation factories are meager. Manufacturers have no intention of actively reducing prices and shipping, and even if demand weakens, the downward pace of prices is relatively smooth.
3、 Supply and demand analysis
（1） Supply side
After the rebound in prices in the early stage, the industry’s production slightly increased, and the small and medium-sized aggregation units that had previously reduced losses gradually resumed production. The market’s spot circulation of goods has increased, and the pressure on the supply side has slightly increased compared to the previous period.
The delivery of long orders from large factories has been basically smooth, and the amount of spot goods released has increased. Coupled with traders taking profits from low-level stocking in the early stage, market selling pressure has emerged this week, which is the direct cause of the slight decline in prices over the weekend. The overall industry has no large-scale centralized maintenance, and the supply is in a relaxed state.
（2） Demand side
The traditional off-season in downstream textile industries has dragged down demand: nylon filament, knitted fabrics, and ordinary injection molded modified plastics have entered the off-season of traditional demand. Shantou Shengda’an Nylon Phase II and Weaving Factory mainly purchase on demand, with very low willingness to replenish inventory in large quantities. They are cautious about purchasing high priced slices, and terminal weaving orders have not rebounded synchronously with the rebound of raw materials.
Structural demand highlights are limited: only niche areas such as BOPA film, engineering plastics, and leather base fabric have stable demand, while Yueyang Guangju New Material Film Grade Slicing and Yunzhong Ma Leather Base Fabric have stable material procurement, but their volume is not enough to offset the weak off-season of the textile industry; Downstream companies are unable to transmit cost increases downwards, which puts pressure on upstream chip prices.
Insufficient boost to foreign trade orders: The eastern industrial belt has shifted its production capacity to Vietnam and diverted some export orders. Xinjiang’s exports of cotton and brocade blended fabrics to the west have limited incremental consumption of PA6 slices, which cannot drive overall market demand recovery.
4、 Short term market forecast

The overall trend has entered a weak and volatile operating pattern: the short-term moving average has a dead cross, combined with supply increment and weak demand during the off-season. The PA6 rebound market has temporarily ended, and there is a high probability of entering a high-level volatile correction trend.
The downward space is limited by cost constraints: the high and firm position of caprolactam forms a strong bottom support, and the probability of a significant deep decline is low. The short-term core operating range refers to 12200-12700 yuan/ton.
Core observation variables: whether the price of caprolactam can maintain its strength, downstream willingness to prepare inventory in advance at the end of the off-season in mid to late August, and whether the operating rate of polymerization plants has once again passively decreased.

1、 Price trend
Taking the sulfuric acid method pyrite type titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, the price of titanium dioxide in the domestic market fell in July. On July 1st, the average price of titanium dioxide was 16460 yuan/ton, and on July 28th, the average price of titanium dioxide was 15600 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 5.22%.
2、 Market analysis
The domestic titanium dioxide market prices fell in July. The weak operation of upstream raw material titanium concentrate has led to a decline in sulfuric acid prices. In the off-season of downstream market demand, factories and traders have low enthusiasm for purchasing goods, with high inventory levels among manufacturers and overall shipping pressure. This month, more than 20 companies have reduced production and stopped production to varying degrees. Overall, the titanium dioxide market is mainly operating at a low price and weak. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 14400-18000 yuan/ton; Sharp titanium type costs around 13300-13500 yuan/ton. The titanium dioxide market tends to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, with flexible market trading and individual negotiations on actual transaction prices.
According to customs data statistics, the import of titanium dioxide in June 2026 was 6016.71 tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.08% and a month on month increase of 14.04%. Among them, the import of chloride method titanium dioxide was 3740.31 tons, a month on month increase of 31.69%, and the import of sulfuric acid method titanium dioxide was 2276.40 tons, a month on month decrease of 6.54%. From January to June 2026, the cumulative import of titanium dioxide was about 31900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.67%. Among them, the import of chloride method titanium dioxide was 19340.29 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.88%, and the import of sulfuric acid method titanium dioxide was 12574.16 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22.28%.
According to customs data statistics, the export of titanium dioxide in June 2026 was about 185300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40.43% and a month on month decrease of 21.28%. Among them, the export of sulfuric acid method titanium dioxide was about 137500 tons, a month on month increase of 16.10%, and the export of chloride method titanium dioxide was 47800 tons, a month on month increase of 39.15%; From January to June 2026, the cumulative export of titanium dioxide was 1.0684 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.56%. The export of sulfuric acid titanium dioxide was 807600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.23%, while the export of chloride titanium dioxide was about 260800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 47.12%.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that the current demand for titanium dioxide in the domestic market is weak, and under the dual pressure of manufacturers’ shipments and costs, there is significant pressure for new orders. Pay more attention to Dragon Enterprise’s plans for next month. It is expected that the short-term titanium dioxide market will mainly operate weakly and steadily.

In the second half of July, the formaldehyde market as a whole saw a slight rise, followed by a temporary correction and bottoming out, and then a strong rebound. As of July 27th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong region was reported at 1278 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.81% compared to the middle of the month.
Driving factor analysis
Cost side: Raw material methanol strengthens from weak to strong, providing upward support
The price of formaldehyde does not fluctuate synchronously with the real-time fluctuations of methanol, and there is a 3-5 trading day transmission cycle; After unilateral fluctuations in raw materials, formaldehyde often delays the realization of positive or negative effects. At present, methanol has fallen from a high level, and formaldehyde is gradually digesting the cost benefits brought by the rise in raw materials in the early stage. The negative impact of short-term decline in raw materials has not yet been transmitted to the formaldehyde end.
Supply side: Periodic tightening of supply, controllable inventory pressure
During the price correction phase in mid to late July, some companies controlled their load due to poor profits, resulting in a contraction of market supply; Mainstream equipment maintenance and load reduction in the region continue, and the overall inventory of finished products from manufacturers remains at a medium low level, without forming a large-scale accumulation of inventory. After the price fell to a low level, downstream demand increased on dips, further accelerating inventory depletion and helping prices rebound from the bottom.
On the demand side: traditional off-season constraints on price increases, only rigid demand support
The downstream of formaldehyde is mainly in the artificial board and adhesive industries, and July and August are traditionally the off-season for demand. The high temperature and rainfall have affected the operation of the sheet metal factory, resulting in insufficient terminal orders and a lack of willingness to stock up on a large scale downstream. Overall, the on-demand procurement model is maintained.
This round of price increase relies more on cost push and low-priced replenishment, rather than an outbreak of terminal demand. The long-term suppression on the demand side will limit the space for sustained price increases.
Market forecast:
In the short term, the formaldehyde market will continue to fluctuate strongly and the upward slope will slow down. There is still room for price inertia to rise, but the momentum for sustained unilateral surges is insufficient; After entering August, with the gradual transmission of negative costs and the strengthening of demand constraints during the off-season, we need to be vigilant about the risk of market surges and downturns.

As of July 24th, the price of 0 # zinc was 24657 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 1.09% compared to the zinc price of 24390 yuan/ton on July 20th.
fundamentals
The overall domestic zinc price shows a pattern of high volatility and a slight downward shift in the center of gravity. The price rises first and then falls during the week, and the long short game is intense.
Supply side: The shortage in the mining sector continues to deepen, and the expectation of reduced production in the smelting sector is heating up
The processing fee for zinc concentrate continues to break historical lows, and the average price of TC for domestic mines has been lowered to -500 yuan/ton in July. TC for overseas zinc mines also continues to decline at low levels; As a result, the domestic refined zinc production has declined in June 2026. According to institutional forecasts, the domestic refined zinc production in July was about 549500 tons, a decrease of 13000 tons compared to the previous month, and the production will further decline. At present, the smelting profit based on domestic ore as raw material and taking into account the by-product income is generally below the profit and loss line. With the continuous expansion of comprehensive smelting losses, the probability of expanding the scope of industry maintenance has significantly increased. However, there is still an expected month on month increase in the underground half of the year in Hunan, Henan and other regions, and the actual realization of subsequent concentrated production cuts still needs to be observed.
Demand side: Traditional consumption has significant off-season characteristics, and downstream customers are cautious in receiving goods
In July, it was the traditional off-season for zinc consumption in the zinc market, and downstream enterprises such as galvanizing and die-casting zinc alloys saw a marginal decline in operating rates. The overall inventory of galvanized sheet is at a high level; The operating rates of die-casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide are showing a downward trend. Downstream enterprises maintain low inventory operation, with weak willingness to replenish at low prices and a weak market transaction atmosphere. The spot market continues to show a discount situation, and the downstream acceptance of high prices is insufficient. However, there are signs of a rebound in demand for galvanized steel in infrastructure construction, and there has been an increase in bidding for power grids and transportation guardrails. Galvanized steel and infrastructure orders have provided some support to the demand side. Overall, the characteristic of the demand side being “not weak in the off-season” is not yet obvious, with rigid procurement as the main focus and concentrated stockpiling absent.
comprehensive analysis
Short term zinc prices are expected to continue the pattern of high volatility and range consolidation. The subsequent market evolution needs to focus on three major variables: whether the TC processing fee at the mining end can stop falling and stabilize; Zinc ingot inventory situation; On the eve of the traditional peak season of “Golden September and Silver October”, has the pace of downstream terminal replenishment started ahead of schedule. Under the two-way tug of war between mining support and off-season drag, zinc prices are difficult to break out of a unilateral trend in the short term, and range oscillation remains the main theme.

1、 Trend analysis
This week, copper prices first rose and then fell. As of July 17th, copper prices were reported at 104191 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.77% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 33.48%.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, with 300600 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, down 1.51% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, the US June CPI fell 0.4% month on month, PPI fell 0.3% month on month, and inflation data was generally lower than expected. The US dollar index was under pressure and fell to a three week low near 100.50. However, during a congressional hearing, the Federal Reserve reiterated its “zero tolerance” for high inflation and downplayed the significance of the improvement in monthly data.
Supply side: Supply side disruptions have further intensified this week. The copper concentrate processing fee TC continues to have a deep negative value, and the long-term bidding has been as low as -250 US dollars per dry ton; The mainstream fixed number transactions are concentrated between -135 and -140 US dollars per ton. In Chile, due to the strong winter front system, heavy snowfall and rainfall may cause short-term disturbances to road transportation and port loading in the northern core mining area. In May, major copper companies in Chile saw a significant decline in production, with Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine, experiencing a year-on-year decrease of 17.6%. The new chairman of Chile’s National Copper Company announced that the assessment core will shift from “production expansion” to “profit priority”, further weakening the supply elasticity. Domestically, as of July 16th, the social inventory of electrolytic copper in mainstream regions of China has dropped to 123400 tons, a decrease of 16600 tons from July 13th.
On the demand side: The demand side continues to be sluggish during the off-season, but high prices are significantly suppressed. Downstream enterprises have weak willingness to accept goods at high prices, and the spot premium is fluctuating around 300 yuan/ton. The trading of refined copper rods in the market has not shown a significant rebound, and orders rely on the purchasing support of large end users. The operating rate of small and medium-sized downstream enterprises is relatively low. LME copper inventory has dropped to 300600 tons, the lowest since February, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts has risen to about 43%.
In summary, the tight supply and mining situation is difficult to reverse, and the negative value of TC depth continues; On the inventory side, domestic social inventory continues to hit a new low for the year, with low inventory providing solid support. But be cautious: weak consumption during the off-season and weak willingness to stock up at high prices downstream; The premium for US copper has dropped to around $340 compared to London copper; COMEX’s high inventory continues to distort global trade flows. Overall, the bullish logic in the industry is still solid, but macro and geopolitical uncertainties have increased, and it is expected that copper prices may weaken and fluctuate in the short term.