Recently, the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have been escalating, causing disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, and causing a sudden tension in the global energy and chemical markets. For the dichloromethane industry, this geopolitical conflict has created a rare “two-way squeeze”: on the one hand, the price of key raw material methanol has skyrocketed due to supply concerns from Iran, while liquid chlorine has simultaneously strengthened, driving up costs strongly; On the other hand, the Middle East market (14 countries, involving a total amount of 132 million yuan), which accounts for 22.3% of the total export value, faces the risk of shipping delays, rejections, or even stagnation. The reverse movement of cost push up and export obstruction has plunged the market into a complex game of “price increase without demand, price reduction with cost”.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 5th, the mixed price of dichloromethane in Shandong region was 2095 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 19.37% compared to early March.
1、 Cost resonance: The sharp rise in raw materials solidifies the bottom of prices
The production cost of dichloromethane is driven by both liquid chlorine and methanol. The current situation in the Middle East has caused a surge in raw material prices through energy transmission, forming strong cost support:
In terms of methanol, Iran is the world’s second largest producer of methanol, with an average annual production capacity of about 17 million tons, accounting for 59% of China’s methanol imports. Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, Iran’s cargo shipping has been hindered, import supply expectations have tightened, coupled with rising energy prices driving up costs, methanol prices have surged significantly, further pushing up the production cost of dichloromethane. On March 5th, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2500 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.64% compared to early March.
In terms of liquid chlorine, downstream facilities in Shandong have been operating at a reduced capacity, and the concentrated release of demand has led to a significant increase in prices. The ex factory prices of tank trucks have rapidly risen, and cost support has significantly increased. The factory quotation for tank trucks has increased from 100-150 yuan/ton in early March to 100-400 yuan/ton. The resonance of the two major raw materials has led to a rapid increase in the cost line of dichloromethane.
2、 Overview of Export Impact: Nearly 1/4 of Export Scale Facing Shipping Risks
According to the 2025 dichloromethane export data statistics, the situation in the Middle East has had a significant impact on China’s dichloromethane exports, with clear characteristics of the impact:
Scale of impact: A total of 14 countries were affected, involving an export amount of 132 million yuan, accounting for about 22.3% of the total exports, and nearly a quarter of the export business faced shipping fluctuations.
Risk structure: Risks exhibit characteristics of “high concentration and prominent extreme values”. Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt together account for more than 90% of the affected amount, and are the main carriers of shipping risks; Iran, Israel, Yemen and other countries have a relatively low proportion of export value, but their performance risks are extremely high. Shipping companies refuse to ship, ship schedules are delayed, and port delays occur frequently, making it significantly more difficult to deliver orders.
Logistics impact: The restricted passage of the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz has led to a general delay of 10-15 days in related shipping routes, resulting in a significant increase in sea freight and insurance costs, directly driving up export costs. The pace of overseas arrivals has slowed down, and export shipments have been temporarily hindered.

3、 Market Contradiction: The Game between Cost Boosting and Export Suppression
The current dichloromethane market has formed a typical “double-edged sword” effect:
Positive support: high cost of methanol/liquid chlorine+generally low inventory of domestic enterprises+bullish market sentiment
Negative pressure: blocked demand in core export markets+rising logistics costs+uncertainty in overseas orders
If the export channel is blocked, the goods originally intended for export will be forced to flow back to China, increasing domestic supply pressure and in turn suppressing price increases.
4、 Future prospects
In the short term, the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain, and shipping risks and high prices of raw materials will continue to exist. The logic of cost support and export disturbance is not eliminated, and the price of dichloromethane is expected to maintain a strong trend. In the medium term, it is necessary to focus on the progress of shipping recovery, the strength of downstream demand recovery, and fluctuations in raw material prices. If geopolitical conflicts ease and export logistics recover, prices may gradually return to rationality, but the cost bottom has significantly increased, and the overall market center has significantly shifted upward compared to the previous period. If the situation in the Middle East does not ease, the impact of hindered exports will gradually become apparent, and port inventories may accumulate, suppressing the upward space for prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the prices of various varieties in the plastic sector have significantly increased recently. As of March 4th, the benchmark price of LLDPE (7042) was 7325 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 10.71% since the beginning of the month; The benchmark price of PP wire drawing material is 7320 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.85%; The benchmark price of ABS is 10016.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.21%.
Core driver: International crude oil prices skyrocket
Recently, the international crude oil market has continued to strengthen driven by geopolitical factors, becoming the most direct reason for the increase in the cost center of the plastic sector. Affected by the escalating geopolitical situation in the Middle East, market concerns about global crude oil supply have intensified. On March 3rd, the settlement price of the April contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $74.56 per barrel, an increase of $3.33 or 4.7%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for May was $81.40 per barrel, an increase of $3.66 or 4.7%. As the source of the plastic industry chain, crude oil’s price fluctuations rapidly spread downstream. The cost support for the oil to olefin pathway has suddenly increased, and production companies have raised their ex factory prices to alleviate profit pressure, triggering the current upward trend in the plastic sector.
Domestic supply side: increased device maintenance+relief of supply pressure during the period of new production capacity gaps
In addition to cost push, the domestic plastic supply side has also experienced a phase of tightening. March and April is the traditional maintenance season for petrochemical plants. Currently, some PP and PE plants of enterprises such as Zhenhai Refining and Chemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical have planned or advanced shutdowns for maintenance, involving relatively concentrated production capacity. At the same time, the operational stability of some newly put into operation units in the early stage was insufficient, and the output was lower than expected, resulting in an overall relief of market supply pressure compared to the early stage. The inventory clearance of production enterprises is smooth, and some sources of goods are experiencing structural shortages. Manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices, further boosting the strength of spot prices.
Market sentiment and demand: post holiday restocking+”Golden Three” expectations amplify gains
Post holiday replenishment demand release: After the Spring Festival, downstream product companies’ operating rates have steadily rebounded, raw material inventories are in a rigid replenishment cycle after consumption, centralized procurement behavior has increased, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market is hot.
Expectations for the peak season of “Golden Three Silver Four”: The market has a good expectation for the traditional consumption season of “Golden Three Silver Four”. The demand for agricultural film has entered the peak season, and orders for packaging, injection molding, and other products have also rebounded. The marginal improvement in demand resonates with the benefits of cost and supply, amplifying the short-term price increase.
Future forecast
The key to the sharp rise in the plastic sector this time lies in how long the cost side driving force can last, and whether downstream demand can accommodate high priced raw materials.
Upstream level: The core focus is on the further development of the Middle East situation and the direction of international oil prices. If geopolitical conflicts persist and oil prices remain high, the cost support for plastics will continue to exist. But we need to be vigilant about the risks brought by the high oil price correction.
On the supply side, attention should be paid to the actual recovery progress of maintenance equipment and the deployment of new production capacity. If the maintenance equipment is restarted in the later stage and the new production capacity is smoothly increased, the favorable situation on the supply side will gradually weaken.

On the demand side: The true demand quality during the peak season of the “Golden Three” will be the key to determining the market height. If downstream orders are sufficient and cost pressures can be smoothly transmitted, plastic prices are expected to receive support at a high level; On the contrary, if downstream parties have resistance to high priced raw materials and procurement slows down, it may suppress further upward space for prices.
In summary, in the short term, with the combined effect of cost support and improvement in supply and demand, it is expected that the plastic sector market will maintain a strong and volatile trend. We need to closely monitor the changes in international oil prices, the dynamics of petrochemical facilities, and the follow-up of downstream demand in the future.

On March 3rd, the domestic ethylene glycol market saw a significant increase, with spot prices in East China closing at 3850 yuan/ton,+480 yuan/ton; South China closed at 3850 yuan/ton,+400 yuan/ton. The market is concerned about the impact of geopolitical issues on supply, and holders of goods have a strong reluctance to sell. Downstream restarts are limited, and there is insufficient momentum to chase after price increases, resulting in a slightly cautious attitude.
Fundamental analysis:
Supply: As of March 1st, the inventory of diethylene glycol ports in East China was 48000 tons, a decrease of 4100 tons compared to the previous statistical period. This week (March 3-9), Zhangjiagang is expected to receive a ship of 13300 tons. Although the expected arrival volume has increased, the market price center has strengthened after the holiday, and coupled with the gradual resumption of work and production downstream, port shipments may increase, resulting in little change in inventory at the main ports in East China.
Demand: Downstream demand still needs to recover, and the unsaturated resin plant will continue to resume operations within the week. The average operating rate of domestic unsaturated resin factories is 15%, a decrease of 5 percentage points from before the holiday (0% for unsaturated resin during the Spring Festival holiday). The resumption of work and production is slow, and there is pressure on traders to ship. On March 2nd, a total of 891 tons were shipped from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang, an increase of 26 tons compared to the previous day.
Cost: The differences between the US and Iran in the negotiations are still evident, and the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran is still ongoing. Geopolitical tensions are pushing up the risk of supply disruptions, and international oil prices are rising.
Market outlook: Downstream recovery is slightly slow, with less recent arrivals than expected and inventory decline in the main ports of East China. Geopolitical tensions pose a risk of supply interruption, while strong oil prices drive commodity sentiment. In the short term, the ethylene glycol market maintains a strong pattern, and downstream purchasing sentiment is gradually recovering.

After the Spring Festival, the domestic acrylonitrile market hit bottom and experienced a slight rebound in some areas, with the main support coming from the cost side. Recently, with the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, international crude oil and propylene prices have risen, and the cost pressure on acrylonitrile has once again increased, thereby stimulating the expansion of price increases. The overall market price has risen by about 200 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of major suppliers in Shandong region have reached 7400 yuan/ton for factory delivery. The prices of ports in East China have also risen to 7600-7700 yuan/ton. Considering the recent release of some factory maintenance plans, it is expected that the market will maintain an upward trend in the short term.
1、 Cost side drives acrylonitrile prices to bottom out and rebound
Since the fourth quarter of last year, the domestic acrylonitrile production loss space has gradually expanded to over 1000 yuan/ton, and there is no sign of improvement in 2026. Before this round of price rebound, the price of acrylonitrile had already fallen to a historical low of 7000 yuan/ton. As the period of losses prolongs, some factories have released parking or maintenance plans after the Spring Festival, including Fushun Petrochemical which has already shut down, CNOOC Fudao which plans to shut down for maintenance for about 25 days at the end of March, Krul which will shut down for major repairs from April to June, and large factories such as Sirbond still maintaining low load operation. Due to the recovery stage of demand after the holiday, the combination of reduced supply and increased cost pressure provides particularly significant support for the market.
2、 The short-term impact of acrylonitrile exports is limited
In recent years, the export volume of acrylonitrile in China has been increasing year by year, but trade with the Middle East region is still relatively limited. In 2025, China will export a total of 311000 tons of acrylonitrile, with an export dependence of about 8.4%. Among them, the export volume to Saudi Arabia is about 16000 tons, accounting for 5.1%. In the short term, the situation in the Middle East has limited impact on the overall export situation of acrylonitrile, but in the long term, factors such as rising freight costs may to some extent affect the export volume of acrylonitrile to the Middle East and surrounding areas.
3、 The supply side still dominates the long-term price trend of acrylonitrile
In the short term, cost side fluctuations provide impetus for the price of acrylonitrile to rise, but it is still based on the expected supply side contraction in the future. Acrylonitrile, as an intermediate product, can only have a fundamental impact on prices when cost pressures affect production changes and implementation. It is expected that there is still room for upward exploration in the market in the future, but attention still needs to be paid to changes in the supply and demand pattern. It is expected that the continuous variables on the supply side will continue to suppress market volatility.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 27th, the average market price of acetic acid was 2830 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton or 1.80% compared to the price of 2780 yuan/ton on February 23rd.
This week (2.23-2.27), domestic acetic acid prices have shown a strong upward trend. During the Spring Festival holiday, there was little change in the operating rate of the acetic acid plant, and the market supply performance was sufficient. In some regions, due to the decrease in inventory during the holiday, prices continued to rise after the holiday. Acetic acid prices in North and East China regions followed suit with psychological support. In terms of demand, downstream recovery was slow, and overall market support was insufficient. The price increase of acetic acid was limited. After the Spring Festival, the acetic acid market was consolidated and operated.
Recently, the price of raw material methanol has risen first and then fallen. As of February 27th, the average price in the domestic market was 2155 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.09% compared to the price of 2201 yuan/ton on February 23rd. The inventory of methanol in the port market has increased, downstream demand is weak, and the price focus has been significantly lowered. The domestic methanol market lacks support, downstream procurement is average, enterprise shipments are limited, methanol prices are weak, and cost pressures on acetic acid have weakened.
The downstream acetic anhydride market is consolidating and operating. From February 23rd to 27th, the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride increased from 4565 yuan/ton to 4570 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11%. The production of acetic anhydride on the supply side has not changed much, and downstream purchases are made according to demand. The price of acetic acid on the raw material side has risen, and the cost support is relatively strong, resulting in a slight increase in acetic anhydride prices.
Market forecast: According to the acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society, there are currently no adjustment plans for domestic acetic acid plants, and companies are mainly adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Downstream demand will recover after the holiday, and the market trading atmosphere is optimistic. It is expected that the acetic acid market will be strong and stable in the short term, and attention will be paid to the market supply situation in the future.