Market Review:
This week, the domestic propylene market showed a strong unilateral upward trend. According to monitoring data, as of April 8th, the benchmark price of propylene has risen to 9591.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.18% compared to 8784.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week. The price not only broke through the previous platform, but also approached the historical peak within a year (9701.00 yuan/ton).
Market analysis:
1. Strong trend: From the multi cycle moving average chart, it can be seen that the price line runs steadily above all short-term (10 day), medium-term (20 day, 30 day), and long-term (60 day) moving averages, and each moving average is in a bullish divergent arrangement, indicating a clear upward trend in the market and sufficient momentum.
2. High risk location: Data shows that the current price has been at a “high” statistical position within one year. From the daily position tracking table, it can be seen that since April 3rd, the “10 day position” and “20 day position” of propylene prices have entered the “high” range and continuously triggered the “super rise” warning, indicating that the price has reached a high-risk range in the short, medium, and long term dimensions.
3. Solid bottom and huge increase: Looking back at longer cycles, the production price in Shandong region reveals the starting point of this round of rise. Since late February, the price of propylene has started from a bottom of about 5841 yuan/ton, initiating the main upward trend. As of April 8th, the cumulative maximum increase has exceeded 72%. This week’s rise is a continuation and acceleration of this large-scale upward trend.
Core driving factors:
The stable support of downstream demand is the key to the upward trend of propylene prices in this round. The profit margin of major downstream products such as polypropylene (PP) is still acceptable, and the operating load is maintained. As of April 8th, the benchmark price of PP (wire drawing) in Shengyi Society was 9666.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.50% compared to the beginning of this month (9250.00 yuan/ton). Stable demand has been formed for the procurement of raw material propylene. At the same time, some upstream equipment maintenance has caused a slight tightness in the supply side, jointly pushing up the price of propylene.
Conclusion and Prediction:
Based on the comprehensive analysis of the spot trading method of the Business Society, the current propylene market exhibits typical characteristics of “strong trend and high position”. Although the upward trend is very strong, due to the fact that the price has been at an absolute high level (with extremely low position scores) in the short, medium, and long term, the system evaluates that the current situation does not meet the conditions for a “buying point”. This indicates that the market has accumulated a large number of profit opportunities, and the risk of technical correction is rapidly increasing.
Trend prediction: In the short term, there is a possibility of an inertial upward trend in propylene prices and a pre-test high (around 9700 yuan/ton). But we must be vigilant that any positive news or weak downstream acceptance may trigger drastic price fluctuations.
Risk Warning: The alarm for multiple cycles of “super inflation” has been triggered, and the price is at a statistically extreme high. The market sentiment has entered a frenzy stage, and chasing high risks is extremely risky. Suggest downstream enterprises to purchase according to their needs and avoid excessive stockpiling; Traders should pay attention to locking in profits and prevent the risk of rapid rebound after a surge.
Key focus: In the future, it is necessary to closely monitor the profitability and changes in production of downstream polypropylene and other products, as well as the dynamics of upstream propylene supply facilities. These will be key factors affecting whether propylene prices can remain stable at a high level or turn around.

Cobalt prices fell sharply on April 3rd
According to the Commodity Cobalt Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the cobalt price on April 3rd was 415500 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 2.46% compared to the cobalt price of 426000 yuan/ton on April 1st. The domestic spot price of cobalt fell sharply in April. Congo (Kinshasa) has further announced new regulations on cobalt ore export quota control. The Q4 quota for 2025 can be extended up to the end of April, and the Q1 quota for 2026 can be extended up to the end of June. Cobalt ore from Congo (Kinshasa) may be shipped in bulk in April; The approval of cobalt intermediate products is slow, and the shipment progress of cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo is slow. The expected supply of cobalt in April briefly increased, resulting in a decrease in demand and a sharp drop in cobalt prices in April.
Overseas markets: Cobalt prices fall in April
The cobalt price in April changed from the upward trend in March and began to fluctuate and decline. The international cobalt price has fallen, which is bearish for the domestic cobalt market.
Supply side: New export quota regulations for cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo lead to increased supply
As a supplier of 70% of the world’s cobalt raw materials, the mining regulatory agency of the Democratic Republic of Congo has officially issued new regulations on cobalt ore export quota control, setting a final deadline for global miners to fulfill their obligations: mining companies must complete all outstanding export quotas for the fourth quarter of 2025 before April 30, 2026. Any unused quotas beyond the deadline will be fully confiscated and transferred back to the national strategic reserve. At the same time, it is clarified that the export quota for the first quarter of 2026 can be extended to complete shipment before June 30, 2026, and can be implemented synchronously with the quota for the second quarter. The total quota allocated for the whole year of 2026 is still valid. The introduction of new regulations may lead to concentrated shipments of cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo in April, increasing short-term supply expectations in the cobalt market and intensifying downward pressure on cobalt prices.
Market Overview and Future Outlook
According to data analysts from Shengyi Society, the release of new cobalt ore export quota control regulations in the Democratic Republic of Congo has led to an increase in short-term cobalt ore outflow expectations and supply in the cobalt market. At the same time, due to multiple restrictions on operations and logistics under the new cobalt quota system, the approval process for cobalt exports in the Democratic Republic of Congo has been slow, resulting in a serious delay in the implementation of allocation quotas for most enterprises, limited increase in cobalt market supply, and limited pressure on cobalt price decline. Overall, the increase in supply and demand is weak, and it is expected that cobalt prices will slightly decline in April.

Market Trend Overview
The trend of the propylene market this week is stable. As of April 2nd, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society is 8784.33 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month.
Open the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society’s spot trading platform, and you will find that the yellow price line is winding around the 10 day moving average of the red line and the 20 day moving average of the blue line, presenting a typical “high-level oscillation” pattern.
The current “one-year position” indicator shows a medium to high level. This indicates that although the current price has not broken through the previous high, it is still in a relatively strong area at a higher price point.
Behind this’ high-level consolidation ‘is actually the extreme tug of war between supply and demand:
Supply side: The operation of refinery facilities is relatively stable, although there are some expected maintenance, the overall supply has not experienced a cliff like decline, and the supply is relatively sufficient, suppressing the impulse for further price increases.
On the demand side, downstream derivatives such as polypropylene (PP) have shown average performance, and there is a strong demand for the purchase of raw material propylene, without a large-scale hoarding trend.
Simply put, it means that the upstream has a strong willingness to raise prices, while the downstream has a weak willingness to receive goods, resulting in a stalemate between the two parties.
Business Society System Prediction: Beware of Changes after “1-Year Overrise”
Based on the core data of the Business Society’s commodity market analysis system, it is necessary to pay attention to two key signals:
1. Warning signal on: The bottom of the system clearly indicates “1-year super rise”. This means that the current price is already in the high-risk zone of the past year. According to the mean regression theory, it is difficult for prices to maintain a long-term super high range, and downward pressure is accumulating.
2. Location score characteristics: Currently, the 10 day, 20 day, and 30 day location scores are all at a “medium high level”. According to the system logic, when the short-term and medium – to long-term moving averages show a “tangled” state and the position is high, it often indicates an increase in trend uncertainty.
Overall, the supply-demand game in the propylene market is expected to continue in the short term, with prices likely to remain in a high volatility pattern, fluctuating between 8500-9200 yuan/ton. In the medium term, with the gradual release of supply side increment, if there is no significant improvement on the demand side, the upward momentum of the market will gradually weaken, and we need to be vigilant about the risk of price correction. Focus on international oil price trends, changes in downstream plant operating rates, and overall market transactions in the future.

price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market quickly rose in March, with most spot prices of various brands showing significant increases. As of March 31st, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16516.67 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of+26.79% compared to the beginning of the month.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: Since March, domestic PC aggregation enterprises have experienced a mutual restart and maintenance. The overall load variation within the interval is relatively narrow, with an average operating rate fluctuating around 87%. The average weekly output at the end of the month is over 70000 tons. Although the load is relatively high, there is still room for supply contraction in the future due to maintenance plans for Cangzhou Dahua and Cohen Chuang in early April. Overall, the supply side’s support for PC is still acceptable.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic bisphenol A market has seen significant growth since early March. Affected by the severe fluctuations in international crude oil, the prices of phenol and acetone fluctuate at the same frequency. Subsequently, it will drive the domestic spot price of bisphenol A. At the same time, the increase in bisphenol A supply during the month is limited. As the end of the month approaches, crude oil continues to rise, and there is still room for bisphenol A to rise in the future market. There is a positive trend in supporting the cost value of PC.
On the demand side: The improvement in profitability of terminal enterprises is limited, and the load position of PC downstream factories is still average. The current PC price has risen to a relatively high level, and buyers are cautious about stocking up. Their willingness to continue building warehouses is not strong, and they have entered a wait-and-see stage. And international crude oil continues to fluctuate, pushing up the petrochemical industry and logistics costs, while driving up the resonance of bulk commodity prices. Although the atmosphere of PC market speculation has cooled down in the early stage, the current mentality of merchants is strong and they are trying to overvalue. Overall, the demand side provides moderate support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
After the domestic PC market rose in March, it sorted out. Affected by the continued geopolitical situation, crude oil and related products in the petrochemical industry chain have fluctuated at high levels, and upstream bisphenol A prices have surged and adjusted, with cost values synchronously transmitted to PC. Domestic PC polymerization plants have large and stable loads with small fluctuations, and the industry will undergo centralized maintenance in the future, with expectations of further tightening of supply. On site trading is mainly driven by basic needs, and buyers have a cautious attitude, taking as they please. At the end of the month, transactions are mainly small orders. It is expected that in the short term, the PC market may be affected by the dual positive effects of remote upstream leading the rise and supply tightening, and there may still be a possibility of stable upward movement.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 31, 2026, the morning market price of gold spot was 1019.24 yuan/gram, a decrease of 10.97% from the gold spot market price of 1144.88 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month (March 1).
On the 31st, the gold price slightly rebounded within the day. In terms of spot trading:
On March 31, 2026, Shanghai Gold Exchange quoted a benchmark price of 1016.94 yuan/gram for Shanghai Gold (gold ingots with a standard weight of 1 kilogram and a purity of not less than 99.99%; pricing contract) at noon; Compared to the benchmark price of 999.56 yuan/gram in the early trading of the 30th, it has increased by 17.38 yuan/gram (1.74%).
In terms of futures:
The main contract of Shanghai Gold on March 31, 2026, opened at 1023.80 yuan/gram and closed at 1020.10 yuan/gram, up 1.46% from yesterday’s settlement price of 1005.42 yuan/gram.
Reasons for the rebound of precious metal gold on March 31, 2026
On March 31, 2026, the precious metal gold market experienced a significant rebound, with spot gold prices steadily rising, ending the previous phase of correction and becoming an important node for the recent recovery of gold market sentiment. The rebound of gold this time is not driven by a single factor, but the result of the resonance of multiple factors such as macro policy expectations, geopolitical situation evolution, market capital flow, and long-term allocation demand. The core revolves around the safe haven and financial attributes of gold. The specific reasons are analyzed in detail as follows:
1、 The shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations has laid the foundation for a short-term weakening of the US dollar. Since March, the market’s expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy have undergone multiple rounds of adjustment. In the early stage, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East pushed up international oil prices, causing concerns about inflation rebound. The market once raised expectations of interest rate hikes, leading to a downward pressure on gold prices. In late March, there were signs of partial easing in the situation in the Middle East, with international oil prices falling from high levels and marginal easing of upward pressure on inflation. Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates have once again risen. The opportunity cost of holding gold is positively correlated with the level of interest rates, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has reignited, significantly reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and attracting capital to flow back into the gold market. At the same time, the US dollar index experienced a short-term decline after rising on March 30th. Gold usually shows a negative correlation with the US dollar, and the weakening of the US dollar directly enhances the investment attractiveness of gold, becoming the core short-term driving factor for the recovery of gold on that day.
2、 The structural easing of the geopolitical situation has led to an orderly release of safe haven demand. Since March, the Middle East conflict has continued to escalate, and the confrontation between the United States, Israel, and Iran has led to the obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, causing global energy supply shortages and market panic. However, due to the suppression of “inflation rate hike” expectations in the early stage of gold prices, there has been a deviation between safe haven demand and price trends. On March 31st, both sides of the conflict released signals of partial easing, and the market panic sentiment marginally eased, gradually releasing the previously suppressed demand for safe haven; At the same time, there are still concerns in the market about the long-term uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts. Central banks, institutions, and individual investors around the world have allocated gold as the “ultimate safe haven asset”, further supporting the recovery of gold prices and forming a dual support of “short-term sentiment repair+long-term safe haven allocation”.

3、 The central bank continues to make efforts in purchasing gold, providing long-term rigid support. In 2025, the global central bank’s gold purchases will reach a historical peak, and this trend will continue in 2026. China has increased its gold reserves for 16 consecutive months, and emerging economies are accelerating their “de dollarization” process, optimizing their foreign exchange reserve structure and reducing their dependence on US dollar assets by increasing their gold holdings. This global increase in central bank reserves provides long-term “ballast” support for gold prices and enhances the market’s long-term confidence in gold. The rebound of gold on March 31st is a concrete manifestation of the resonance between long-term support and short-term market sentiment. Combined with the significant correction of gold prices in the early stage, institutional bottom fishing funds continued to flow in, further promoting the recovery of gold prices.
4、 The combination of market sentiment repair and capital return. On the week of March 23rd, gold prices experienced their largest weekly decline in 43 years, leading to excessive panic in the market and gradually entering a phase of emotional recovery. On March 25th, the gold price experienced a violent rebound, and the recovery on March 31st is a continuation of this emotional repair. The stampede risk caused by leveraged trading in the early stage gradually subsided, and investment sentiment tended to stabilize. At the same time, the global economy is facing downward pressure from fluctuations in energy prices, and the volatility of traditional assets such as stocks and bonds is intensifying. As a traditional asset that preserves value and resists inflation, gold’s asset allocation value is further highlighted. The demand for allocation from institutional and individual investors has increased, and funds continue to flow into the gold market, providing solid financial support for the recovery of gold prices.
5、 The US dollar credit system is under pressure, strengthening the value of gold allocation. The current total federal debt in the United States has exceeded $39 trillion, the pressure of fiscal deficit continues to increase, the share of US dollar reserves has dropped to a historical low, and the credit foundation of the US dollar is facing challenges. In this context, central banks and investment institutions around the world have reduced their holdings of US dollar assets and turned to gold, a non sovereign credit asset, further increasing the long-term demand for gold. This allocation behavior based on concerns about US dollar credit echoes short-term policy expectations and market sentiment, jointly driving the recovery of the gold market on March 31st.
In summary, the rebound of gold on March 31, 2026 is the result of a combination of short-term policy expectations reversal, market sentiment repair, long-term allocation demand, and geopolitical game. In the short term, gold prices are expected to maintain a recovery trend based on safe haven demand and capital inflows; In the long run, the global trend of central bank gold purchases, changes in US dollar credit, and geopolitical developments will continue to dominate the gold market.