Recently, domestic carbon black prices have skyrocketed, with a 50% increase in the past month. As of September 15th, the market price of N220 carbon black in China was at 12778.57 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 50.59% and a year-on-year increase of 73.62%, setting a new historical high.
The recent significant increase in carbon black prices is the result of rigid transmission of upstream coal industry chain costs and multiple supply side contractions. Essentially, it is a “cost driven, supply side contraction” price adjustment, rather than downstream demand overheating or speculative speculation.
Cost side: Coal tar prices skyrocket, forming rigid cost drivers
Coal tar accounts for 65% -80% of the production cost of carbon black, and its price jump directly drives up the production cost of carbon black.
The root cause of the surge in coal tar is the contraction of coking coal supply. Since the beginning of this year, coal mines in the main production areas have been affected by safety production inspections, environmental supervision, and other factors, resulting in slower than expected resumption of production. The shortage of high-quality coking clean coal supply has become prominent, and the cumulative increase in coking coal prices this year is about 77%. The price increase of coking coal has pushed up the costs of coking enterprises, causing them to generally suffer losses and being forced to lower their operating rates. As a by-product of coking, coal tar production has passively declined, and some coking enterprises have even reduced their exports and turned to self use, further tightening the market circulation of goods.
In September, the export of coal tar improved and profits increased, and the deep processing industry maintained high production, forming a rigid procurement demand for coal tar. Coupled with the concentrated stocking before the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the supply-demand contradiction sharply intensified. The price of high-temperature coal tar has risen by as much as 2200-2270 yuan/ton in just two weeks, setting a historical record of nearly 2000 yuan/ton per week.
Supply side: Carbon black companies reduce production and inventory levels, amplifying price elasticity
Carbon black enterprises themselves are also facing serious operational pressure, with multiple supply side contractions: the industry is experiencing long-term losses, and there is a strong willingness to raise prices. The carbon black industry suffered long-term losses in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a total profit of -115 million yuan in the first half of 2026, and the overall loss situation of the industry continued. After a significant increase in raw material prices, enterprises have fallen into an extreme dilemma of “executing low-priced orders in the early stage and bearing high raw material costs in the current period”, with single ton losses reaching a historical high and forced to concentrate on reducing production to cope.
The operating rate remains at a medium low level, and the spot inventory is low. Affected by multiple factors such as previous losses, equipment maintenance, and environmental control, the operating rate of the domestic carbon black industry has only remained around 65%. Mainstream large factories have basically reduced production by 30-40%, while some small and medium-sized factories have directly stopped production due to weak pressure resistance. The overall spot inventory in the industry is not high, and manufacturers tend to produce according to orders. The market circulation of goods is scarce, and the reluctance of enterprises to sell has increased.
Environmental policies are also accelerating the clearance of outdated production capacity in the medium to long term. In April 2026, seven departments jointly issued a document clarifying that the carbon black industry will be included in the scope of upgrading and renovating old facilities, and a number of small and medium-sized production capacities that do not meet environmental standards will face closure or production restrictions.

Demand side: Tires require immediate support, but have limited willingness to chase after price increases
Tires are the largest downstream of carbon black, accounting for over 60% of the total domestic carbon black consumption. The current operating rate of all steel and semi steel tires remains around 65%. Under the expectation of the traditional “Golden September” peak season, tire factories have a demand for pre holiday stocking, which forms a certain rigid demand support for carbon black.
However, in the face of the rapid rise in carbon black prices, tire companies have shown obvious resistance and insist on purchasing on demand and following up with long-term agreements. Their willingness to actively hoard large quantities is not strong, and the market presents the characteristics of “price increases and weak transactions”. This means that the demand side has limited ability to bear prices, and the space for sustained and significant price increases is constrained.
Global background: Geopolitical conflicts drive up the cost of oil-based raw materials
The overseas carbon black production capacity is mainly based on FCC oil (a byproduct of petroleum refining) as raw material, and the price is highly correlated with crude oil. The geopolitical conflicts such as the US Israel Iran conflict in 2026 have pushed up the international oil price center, causing Brent oil prices to rise from around $72/barrel before the conflict to over $108/barrel. The cost of oil-based raw materials for overseas carbon black companies has significantly increased, and global carbon black prices have risen synchronously, providing price support for domestic carbon black exports.
comprehensive judgment
The transmission chain of this round of carbon black price increase is clear: coking coal supply contraction → coking losses and reduced production → passive reduction of coal tar and concentrated release of demand → skyrocketing coal tar prices → rigid increase in carbon black costs → carbon black enterprises reducing losses and increasing prices. Carbon black enterprises and downstream tire enterprises are actually both under pressure from this round of cost fluctuations, and the profits of the industrial chain are being squeezed by the costs of upstream coal. The key to the subsequent trend lies in whether the tight supply of coal tar can be alleviated, as well as the actual capacity of downstream tires to accept high priced raw materials.

1、 Price trend
As of September 14th, the price of power type premium lithium iron phosphate is 56666 yuan/ton, with limited overall fluctuations. Trading in the spot market is biased towards demand, and at the beginning of the week, borrowing lithium carbonate to stabilize and rebound, coupled with expectations of the “Golden September” peak season, positive electrode manufacturers’ quotations have continued to rise; However, the follow-up of terminal demand fell short of expectations, coupled with a correction in lithium prices, resulting in a rapid decline in prices and a significant drop in spot quotes.
2、 Market analysis
In terms of operating rate: This week, new production capacity has been gradually put into operation with a small increase in supply, and the overall market supply is sufficient. In the early stage, low-priced stocking traders shipped at high prices, resulting in an increase in circulating supply and a sharp differentiation in operating rate. Leading integrated enterprises such as Hunan Yuneng and Defang Nano have operating rates of 95% -100%, with full production and sales, and delivery cycles compressed to within 7 days. Small and medium-sized factories lack high-end high-pressure real production capacity, and operating rates are generally less than 50%. Some have entered production reduction or shutdown. The industry’s total caliber is based on an average capacity utilization rate of about 75% in the first half of the year, but CITIC Construction Investment estimates that the industry’s average operating rate in July was about 90%
In terms of cost, the lithium carbonate market showed a significant decline in early September, with the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate dropping from 156000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 143000 yuan/ton on September 7th (-8.3%), with a maximum daily drop of 7000 yuan/ton; The main futures contract fluctuated downward this week, falling from 142000 yuan/ton on Monday to 134800 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of about 5%. It briefly fell to around 128000 yuan/ton during trading.
In terms of demand, the total demand is still growing, but the short-term pace is not as expected by the market. Power batteries: In the first half of the year, 335.6 GWh (+12%) of domestic power batteries were installed, including 272 GWh of lithium iron phosphate, accounting for 81%; The demand on the automotive side has shifted from “competing for scale” to “competing for quality”, with more incremental growth coming from commercial vehicles and exports, energy storage (core engines). In the first half of the year, domestic shipments of energy storage lithium batteries were about 485GWh, with a year-on-year increase of over 80%; However, in recent times, the bidding pace for large storage vehicles in China has been slow, and overseas orders have been released slowly. Short term consumption is limited, and the overall vehicle procurement strategy is still based on on-demand procurement. New energy vehicle manufacturers have not started large-scale stocking, and their acceptance of high-level raw materials is limited.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that in the short term (late September to October): pre holiday stocking provides a bottom line, while ordinary materials are still under pressure. Prices are expected to fluctuate between 54000-58000 yuan/ton for power type and 53000-56000 yuan/ton for energy storage type. After the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day stocking ends, if the energy storage production schedule falls short of expectations, there is still a slight downward space for ordinary second/third generation materials.

In September, the domestic PTA market showed a volatile and strong operating pattern. As of September 11th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 6971 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.10% from the beginning of the month.
From the perspective of core drivers, the rise in PTA in this round mainly relies on favorable conditions on the cost side of crude oil. Recently, international crude oil has fluctuated strongly due to the geopolitical situation. As of September 10th, the settlement price of the October WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $102.48 per barrel, and the settlement price of the November Brent crude oil futures contract was $107.63 per barrel. Provide favorable support for PTA spot and futures prices.
On the supply side, the PTA market has been continuously destocking in the early stage, with a relatively tight supply of spot goods, combined with processing differences to maintain a reasonable range, effectively supporting market prices and avoiding a significant decline in the market. With the restart and increase of most PTA maintenance units in September, the overall operating rate of the industry has steadily rebounded, and the market supply of goods has gradually relaxed. The previous pace of destocking has slowed down, and it is expected that the destocking will shift from destocking to supply-demand balance or even slight accumulation in the middle and late of this month.
The peak season of “Golden September” on the demand side did not meet expectations, coupled with high priced raw materials restricting terminal order demand, slow follow-up of terminal textile orders, and weak procurement of essential needs. As a result, the operating rate of downstream polyester enterprises is low, and some polyester chip factories plan to undergo maintenance. The polyester load will further decline, and the expected demand during peak season may fall short, making it difficult to drive PTA prices to continue to rise.
Analysts believe that in the short term, PTA will continue its strong range oscillation trend, with the cost side remaining the core influencing factor and relatively solid support. However, weak demand will suppress the weak upward momentum. With the continuous increase in market supply and insufficient fulfillment of peak season demand, the upward space for PTA will be further limited. If there is no strong driving force of a significant increase in crude oil prices, the market will be difficult to break through the range oscillation pattern, and the overall situation will show a “near strong far weak” trend. In the future, we will focus on the fluctuations of crude oil, changes in plant operation, and the landing of terminal polyester orders.

This week, the international sulfur market as a whole presented a structural differentiation pattern of “price adjustment and cost stability”. Although mainstream exporting countries in the Middle East have slightly lowered their contract prices in September, the actual comprehensive landed costs remain high due to the continued tightening of geopolitical and global tradable spot prices. The global sulfur market is undergoing a profound supply-demand restructuring, and the trend of easy rise but difficult fall in the short term is difficult to reverse.
1、 International Price Dynamics: Deviation between Contract Price Decline and Firm Cost of Arrival
The core contradiction of international sulfur prices this week lies in the deviation between “explicit price reduction” and “implicit cost increase”.
Middle East contract price adjustment: Qatar Energy announced the monthly contract price for sulfur in September 2026, with FOB (offshore price) lowered to $880/ton, a slight decrease of $10/ton from $890/ton in August. This reflects the intention of Middle Eastern exporting countries to alleviate downstream procurement pressure by adjusting prices.
Actual landed costs remain high: Despite some loosening of FOB prices, the continued escalation of geopolitical shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant increase in ocean insurance surcharges. Based on the August contract price in Kuwait (FOB 865 US dollars/ton), combined with high freight and insurance premiums, the theoretical CFR (cost plus freight) comprehensive landed cost for shipping to ports in southern China has exceeded 1070 US dollars/ton. Geopolitical risk has become the core factor that dominates the actual procurement cost of international sulfur at present.
2、 Global supply pattern: Multiple lockdowns lead to depletion of spot liquidity
Apart from the disruption caused by China Eastern Airlines, the supply of goods in major export regions around the world has simultaneously contracted, further exacerbating the tense global spot market situation
Middle East production capacity damage and shipping obstruction: Due to the continuous escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the refinery capacity of traditional major exporting countries has been damaged by about 30%, and the instability of Middle East sources has led to the depletion of liquidity in the spot market, resulting in frequent occurrences of “price but no market” phenomena. About 45% of the global shipping volume of sulfur passes through the Strait of Hormuz, posing a high risk of physical disruption.
Multi country export control and reflux: In order to prioritize the production of domestic fertilizer enterprises, multiple countries have implemented strict export control measures. Indian refineries voluntarily cease exports to the outside world; Türkiye continued to implement sulfur export control policies, and local spot prices rose significantly; Due to the damage to previous refinery facilities and the extension of export bans until the end of the year, Russia’s exports have continued to decrease. The global available spot quantity has been significantly reduced.
3、 Downstream industrial chain transmission: dual squeezing of fertilizers and new energy
As the absolute core raw material for the production of sulfuric acid and phosphate fertilizers, the high price of sulfur is profoundly affecting the global agricultural and new energy industry chain from top to bottom
Boosting global agricultural fertilization costs: The skyrocketing price of sulfur directly increases the production cost of phosphate fertilizers such as diammonium phosphate. In the corn belt region of the United States, the price of diammonium phosphate has risen to around $850 per ton, and the high price and drastic fluctuations have brought great uncertainty to farmers’ purchasing decisions for the upcoming 2027 planting season.

Suppressing overseas phosphate fertilizer and new energy production rates: Due to severe shortages of raw materials, overseas phosphate fertilizer companies are forced to continue controlling their operating loads, and European farmers are delaying autumn fertilizer preparation due to high costs. In addition, nickel cobalt hydrometallurgy (HPAL) projects in countries such as Indonesia have also been forced to reduce their operating loads due to sulfur shortages, and the sulfur bottleneck has substantially suppressed the capacity release of the global fertilizer and new energy industry chain.
4、 Market outlook: Continued tight balance pattern, wary of high-level fluctuations
Overall, the core contradiction in the current international sulfur market is no longer simply contract pricing, but the hidden cost increase caused by shipping risks, the contraction of multi country source outflow, and the sharp reduction of global tradable spot goods.
Short term trend: As long as the shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz are not substantially relieved and the export sources from India and Russia are not restored, the import landed costs for China and the world will continue to operate at a high level. The market is expected to maintain a high and wide range of fluctuations, with easy gains but difficult losses.
Mid to long term prediction: Overseas leading phosphate fertilizer companies have issued warnings that the global sulfur shortage pattern may continue until 2027. In the macro context of tight supply, high costs, weak demand, and strong prices, the high price situation in the global sulfur market is difficult to completely reverse in the short term.

LLDPE (7042) had an average price of 8506 yuan/ton on August 28th and 9125 yuan/ton on September 3rd, an increase of 7.27%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 10766 yuan/ton on August 28th and 11733 yuan/ton on September 3rd, an increase of 8.98%. HDPE (5000S) had an average price of 10612 yuan/ton on August 28th and 10937 yuan/ton on September 3rd, an increase of 3.06%.
The centralized maintenance of petrochemical facilities in the early stage and the contraction of market circulation sources are the core drivers of this round of price increase, among which LDPE is most significantly affected by maintenance. In September, maintenance facilities will resume production one after another, and domestic sources of goods will gradually be released, while coal production facilities will maintain high operating rates. The expected increase in imported capacity from overseas in the later stage further constrains the upward space of the market. The current overall inventory is still at a low level, which provides some bottom support for prices.
Downstream production has moderately rebounded from the low level in August, and the demand for agricultural film and pipe materials has improved. However, most industries only maintain the demand for immediate use and procurement, and there is insufficient willingness to actively replenish inventory. There is a divergence between the expected and actual peak season of Jinjiu, with high inventory of downstream finished products and weak profits, resulting in strong resistance to high priced raw materials. The demand only achieves weak repair and only serves as a bottom support for the market, making it difficult to drive a significant unilateral increase in prices.
Oil based PE follows the high volatility of crude oil and ethylene, forming a bottom support for spot prices. However, crude oil lacks sustained upward momentum, making it difficult to further push up prices.
The short-term polyethylene market will shift from a rapid rise in the early stage to a high-level oscillation, with insufficient momentum for a large increase, but low inventory and cost support will provide bottom support for the price. With the resumption of production of maintenance equipment, supply pressure is gradually emerging, and downstream acceptance of high priced raw materials is limited, suppressing the upward space in the market.