In early November, formaldehyde oscillation was weak and the center of gravity shifted downwards. As of November 11th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was reported at 1670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.87% from the beginning of the month.
Driving factor analysis
The cost side is declining, and the decline in formaldehyde is increasing
Methanol first rises and falls back, while formaldehyde passively weakens throughout the entire process. The decline is even greater during the falling phase, and it completely deviates from the rebound phase. The core contradiction in the current formaldehyde market is the insufficient demand for downstream boards during the off-season, the failure of cost support, and the continuous loss of processing fees. Short term formaldehyde is unlikely to rebound, with weak bottoming as the main factor, waiting for signals of recovery from board production.
The demand side is currently the core drag
The main flow of formaldehyde is in the artificial board industry, and in early November, mainstream artificial board factories in the field were affected by environmental control measures, resulting in a significant shutdown and direct impact on the essential consumption of formaldehyde. Other downstream products (such as formaldehyde, water reducing agents, etc.) mainly meet their own needs, with limited external mining increment and a lack of effective support for overall demand.
There are signs of passive reduction on the supply side
The operating rate of the formaldehyde industry itself is not high. After entering November, there is an expectation of load reduction in major production areas such as Shandong and Henan, and the expected loss is greater than the recovery. The utilization rate of formaldehyde production capacity is showing a downward trend. But this reduction is more of a passive contraction under weak demand and profit squeeze, with limited support for prices – companies are still offering discounts to maintain inventory, and the tendency to “trade price for quantity” is more obvious.
Market forecast:
In the short term, the conditions for the sharp rise and fall of formaldehyde are not sufficient, and it is more likely to maintain a weak range oscillation.
If methanol prices strengthen again, environmental control is relaxed, and sheet orders improve, formaldehyde may stabilize and even rebound slightly.
If methanol continues to fall, downstream plate production weakens further, and manufacturers accumulate inventory, formaldehyde still has room for further decline.

This week, the domestic fluorite price trend was mainly volatile. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3687.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.34% from the beginning of the week at 3675 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 4.8%.
Supply side: Some mines resume production, increasing supply of fluorite
Domestically, the national inspection of mine safety production has been comprehensively tightened, and non coal mine safety special inspections and environmental protection standards have continued to tighten. However, the pace of resuming production in core production areas such as Jiangxi, Fujian, and Zhejiang in the south has increased, and the effective supply of high-grade wet powder has increased. Compliance production capacity has gradually been released, and the overall market supply of goods in China has increased compared to before. However, the supply of goods in the south is still tight, and the price of fluorite in the south remains high. Some manufacturers have raised their ex factory prices. However, after some positive signals were released, the price of northern fluorite market remained stable on the surface, but there were slight discounts in actual transactions, showing a trend of “clear stability and hidden decline”. Overall, the fluorite market trend is mainly volatile.
In terms of imports: From January to September 2026, Mongolia’s imports of fluorite increased significantly year-on-year. As China’s largest source of imports, its average import price has a clear advantage. After the end of the rainy season in Mongolia, the arrival volume in April and May increased significantly by about 40% month on month, and the import price was generally 300-500 yuan/ton lower than that of domestic products. In addition, domestic low arsenic fluorite (≤ 0.0005%) enjoys a zero tariff policy, further reducing import costs. The concentrated arrival of Mongolian fluorite at ports in East and North China has had a sustained suppressive effect on domestic market prices, and the rise in fluorite prices is very limited.
Demand side: Downstream market trend temporarily stable
1. The hydrofluoric acid market is on the rise, with on-demand procurement being the main focus
The operating rate of hydrofluoric acid enterprises is only about 50%, and most of them suffer from serious losses. Due to the concentrated parking of large hydrogen fluoride factories in the north, the industry’s spot supply has shrunk significantly, and the original individual orders have been diverted to other production enterprises, resulting in a tight supply of individual spot goods and an increase in bargaining space. Hydrofluoric acid enterprises mainly purchase for essential needs and have a strong willingness to lower the price of upstream fluorite. More importantly, although the pricing of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid once rose, hydrofluoric acid companies continued to suppress the price of fluorite in order to repair their own losses, leading to the breakage of the transmission chain of fluorite price increases.
2. End of refrigerant peak season
Refrigerants are the main source of demand downstream of fluorite, and the refrigerant sector is also not optimistic. Affected by the refrigerant quota system and the sluggish demand in the home appliance market, the operating rate of core refrigerants such as R22 and R32 is difficult to exceed 50%, indirectly weakening the demand support for fluorite. Downstream hydrogen fluoride enterprises often adopt on-demand replenishment and batch replenishment strategies, only making phased purchases, which is difficult to effectively boost fluorite prices.
Market forecast: Overall, the resumption of mining production and the increase in import volume on the supply side will have an impact, while the end of the peak season for refrigerants on the demand side will have an impact. In addition, the current downstream demand for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is insufficient, and the utilization rate of production capacity has shrunk. It is expected that the short-term fluorite market price will mainly fluctuate.

1、 October market review: Supply contraction drives prices to new highs
In October, the domestic propylene market experienced a strong and unexpected rise. Under the combined effect of significant supply contraction caused by centralized maintenance of core devices and the release of downstream periodic replenishment demand, the market has been thriving. As of November 3rd, the benchmark price of propylene was 11797.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.69% compared to the beginning of this month (12001.00 yuan/ton), setting a new historical price peak in recent years.
Performance of production and operating data:
In October, domestic propylene production recorded 5.0362 million tons, an increase of 108400 tons compared to September (revised to 4.9278 million tons); The industry average capacity utilization rate is 69.00%, a slight decrease of 0.60 percentage points compared to the previous month (revised to 69.60% in September).
Affected by the parking of Haiwei and the failure to resume the shutdown of Zhenhua since the end of September, the capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.6% to 71.1% month on month, which dragged down the overall construction. The resumption of production at Yangzi Petrochemical’s cracking unit has released incremental growth, driving the capacity utilization rate of the route up by 1.3% to 72.6% month on month. Although the Nanjing Chengzhi plant stopped and reduced production, the Datang Duolun and Lianhong plants restarted successively at the end of September, effectively offsetting the reduction, and the overall capacity utilization rate remained at 74.2%.
2、 Supply and demand game: Tightening supply of goods supports this round of price increases
From the supply-demand balance sheet, the total supply of propylene in October was 5.246 million tons, with a total demand of 5.257 million tons, showing a supply-demand gap of 11000 tons, and the gap size has slightly expanded compared to the previous period. Although the total monthly production has increased, the daily available spot resources continue to tighten due to the impact of new maintenance and equipment shutdowns, providing solid fundamental support for the significant price increase in October.
3、 Market outlook for November: Mixed long and short positions, strong expectations for high-level consolidation
Entering November, the propylene market will face a comprehensive test of cost, supply, and demand, with fierce collisions of long and short factors.
Supply side: Multiple sets of pre maintenance equipment are scheduled to restart, coupled with the resumption of large-scale external equipment in Dongying area, resulting in increased pressure on local shipments. However, the newly added maintenance plans for PDH units such as Jinneng Phase II and Bohua have to some extent created a hedge. It is expected that the overall supply will remain tight in November, with a monthly output expected to be around 4.95 million tons.
Demand side: Downstream demand presents a mixed state of positive and negative factors. On the one hand, PP、PO、 Some units such as phenol ketone are expected to resume production; On the other hand, some acrylonitrile plants plan to shut down, and the sustained high raw material costs seriously compress downstream profits. It cannot be ruled out that some plants may temporarily reduce their load or shut down due to economic deficiencies.
Trend prediction: The supply and demand in November will still maintain a gap, and the potential upward space of international crude oil also provides bottom support. However, considering the suppression of downstream willingness to receive goods by high raw material prices, the difficulty of further market competition has increased. It is expected that domestic propylene prices will gradually decline from their current high levels in November.

From the trend of spot asphalt in Shandong, the market in October showed a typical trend of first suppression and then rebound, with a high-level decline in the early stage and a rebound in the later stage. After a sharp rise in September, the market entered a high-level game stage, with supply and demand, costs, and seasonal demand jointly dominating the price fluctuations in this round.
The downward pressure on asphalt prices in early October was mainly due to the end of the peak season and weak terminal demand. Entering October, the temperature in the north is gradually decreasing, and the window period for road paving is narrowing. The infrastructure and highway projects that were previously focused on rushing to complete are gradually coming to an end; After the continuous rise in prices in September, the high prices suppressed the downstream willingness to purchase goods. Traders generally watched and mainly consumed their own inventory, with weak willingness to actively replenish inventory. Market transactions turned weak, and Shandong asphalt spot prices continued to fall from their high point, forming a wave of correction market. At the same time, some refineries have decent profits in the early stage, with slight increases in shipments and loose supply margins, further driving price corrections and market sentiment leaning towards caution.
In late October, the market bottomed out and rebounded, causing a shift in support logic. Firstly, the sustained low overall inventory level is the most solid support. In the early stage, refineries continued to control production and conduct intermittent maintenance. The factory inventory and social inventory in Shandong region have been at a low level, and there has been no obvious surplus of goods, locking in the space for price decline. With the price falling back to a relatively reasonable range, some traders have started stocking up on dips, laying out winter storage in advance, bringing phased procurement demand, and driving transaction recovery. Secondly, international crude oil continues to fluctuate at a high level, with ongoing cost support and upward fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical factors. The cost of asphalt raw materials remains stable, and refineries have weak willingness to sell at low prices, resulting in firm quotations. In addition, the market’s expectations for subsequent infrastructure policies have increased, boosting bullish sentiment in the market and pushing prices back into an upward channel.
Looking ahead to the future, the asphalt market will enter a seasonal off-season, with mixed long and short factors. The momentum for a unilateral surge is limited, and it is likely to maintain a high and wide range oscillation pattern. On the negative side, the temperature in the north continues to decline, and outdoor road construction is gradually coming to a halt, leading to a further decline in demand; In November, several Shandong refineries have plans to resume and increase production, with an expected increase in asphalt production. The pressure on the supply of goods will gradually be released, suppressing the upward trend. On the positive side, the low inventory pattern is difficult to quickly reverse in the short term, and coupled with the continued pace of winter storage procurement, traders will continue to buy in batches, which will continue to support spot prices. The support of crude oil costs still exists, and there is not much room for price decline.
Downstream construction enterprises should mainly purchase according to their needs and should not hoard goods on a large scale; Traders need to grasp the rhythm of winter storage, layout in batches when there is a pullback, and be alert to the supply impact caused by the concentrated resumption of production by refineries. Overall, the asphalt market has shifted from a unilateral upward trend to a volatile game, with significant increases in market volatility. The focus is on continuously tracking refinery operations, crude oil trends, and winter storage landing rhythms.

As of October 30th, the price of 0 # zinc was 25833 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83% compared to the zinc price of 25618 yuan/ton on October 26th.
fundamentals
The zinc price shows a significant “V” – shaped reversal trend. The zinc price has risen from its low at the beginning of the week and successfully recovered from the 25800 yuan/ton mark. The comprehensive repair of technical indicators, coupled with cost support, has led to a strong rebound in zinc prices in the short term.
The pattern of scarce raw materials on the supply side has not changed. The progress of resuming production in overseas mines is relatively slow, coupled with the fact that some northern mines in China have entered a winter production reduction period, resulting in overall tight supply of zinc concentrate. The smelting end is constrained by the continuous low operation of processing fees (TC), resulting in a significant compression of profit margins. Some smelters have expectations of reduced production due to maintenance, which limits the incremental output of refined zinc. The rigid constraint on the supply side provides a solid underlying logic support for the rapid rise of zinc prices from the bottom this week (such as the low on October 25th).
The demand side has shown a clear resonance between “phased replenishment” and “buying up sentiment” this week. With a single day price increase of 0.84% on October 30th, breaking through the 25800 yuan/ton mark, the speculative demand in the market of “buying up, not buying down” has been stimulated, and trading sentiment has significantly rebounded. However, it should be noted that as zinc prices rise to a high level, downstream processing enterprises are becoming increasingly fearful of high priced raw materials, mainly focusing on essential purchases. The sustained increase in actual terminal consumption remains to be observed.
Comprehensive analysis:
The current zinc price is showing strong performance under the resonance of technical oversold rebound and fundamental low inventory and high cost. But we need to be wary of the marginal weakening of downstream willingness to receive goods and the disturbance of macro sentiment after the price quickly rises to a high level. It is expected that zinc prices will maintain strong fluctuations next week.