According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been fluctuating and consolidating recently (3.1-3.17). As of March 17, the spot rubber market price in China’s natural rubber market was around 16808 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.64% from 16916 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of March 17th, the mainstream price for 24 years of Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao latex in Qingdao area is 16700-16900 yuan/ton.
Recently (3.1-3.17), the price of natural rubber raw materials has risen. As of March 17th, the price of Thai glue was 73.00 baht/kg, an increase of 6.88% from 68.30 baht/kg at the beginning of the month. Yunnan and Hainan provinces in China are in a period of shutdown, with seasonal supply cuts for new glue. Thai glue prices remain high, providing strong cost support. But with Yunnan’s imminent opening in mid March, coupled with the continuous influx of low-priced imported goods from Laos with zero tariffs, market supply growth expectations are heating up, suppressing the upward space for prices.
Recently (3.1-3.17), natural rubber inventory has slightly decreased, with a slightly bearish impact on natural rubber. As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 677600 tons, a decrease of 0.34% from the beginning of the month, which was 679900 tons.
Supply and demand side: As of the week of March 13th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 77.71%; The operating load of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises is 70.22%. The domestic tire production has increased, and the demand for natural rubber has some support.
Market forecast: Natural rubber will still be in a supply-demand game and a high-level oscillation pattern. During the shutdown period, the strength of raw materials and the demand for tires supported the bottom of prices, but the expectation of cutting, high inventory, and export pressure limited the upward space. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the progress of Yunnan’s cutting, the clearance of inventory in Qingdao, and the impact of the Middle East situation on exports.

This week (March 9-13), the polyester bottle chip market experienced a strong upward trend, with a maximum daily increase of 13% and a weekly cumulative increase of nearly 30%. The intense market performance and rapid pace were unexpected by all parties in the market. At present, PET bottle flakes are in a complex pattern of multiple driving factors intertwined and resonating – the high volatility of crude oil on the cost side supports sentiment, major supply side factories concentrate on reducing production and tightening circulation, and the traditional peak season on the demand side steadily releases demand. The rare simultaneous upward momentum of the three forces has pushed the market out of the typical structural upward path of “upstream raw material pressure and downstream passive follow-up”. As of March 13th, according to the price data from Shengyi Society, the mainstream average spot price of polyester bottle chips in East China is 8965 yuan/ton.
1、 Cost side (core reason)
Geopolitical ‘black swan’ detonates cost nuclear bomb, causing a surge in crude oil/PX/PTA/MEG prices across the board
The extreme event of near interruption in the Strait of Hormuz is the “igniter” and core cost driver of this round of market trend. This is not an ordinary crude oil fluctuation, but a “supply crisis” where 20% of global oil supply is facing the risk of interruption, and the resulting cost increase is rigid and severe.
The latest data shows that the latest price of WTI crude oil is $92.70 per barrel, an increase of over 6%. This cost hurricane at the source is rapidly spreading downstream along the industrial chain, indicating that cost pressure is rapidly spreading downstream.
The processing fees of the bottle chip factory have been severely squeezed, and they can only passively keep up with the price increase and seal the plate to ensure profits.
2、 Supply side (driving a significant increase)
The production rate of bottle flakes is relatively low, with a significant decrease in production in February compared to the previous month. There is also a low inventory of spot goods and a shortage of low-priced goods.
Multiple large factories have closed down their sales and continuously adjusted prices, further tightening market liquidity.
Red ocean freight rates have skyrocketed, export quotes have been raised, and internal and external markets have resonated and risen.
3、 Needs and Emotions (Amplify Increase)
The peak season for beverages and packaging has started, with stable demand and strong buying sentiment. Downstream buyers are chasing orders and hoarding goods.
The traditional beverage consumption stocking season that began in March has provided a certain demand side absorption and time buffer for the current high prices. The existence of peak season demand has temporarily increased downstream tolerance for price increases and provided confidence for midstream traders to “buy up”, forming a short-term positive cycle. From the price data, the price of East China water bottle slices skyrocketed from 7030 yuan/ton on March 6th to 7800 yuan/ton on March 11th, and now approaches 9000 yuan/ton today, with a staggering weekly increase. Such a huge increase was achieved against the backdrop of peak season, partially confirming the supportive role of demand during peak season. At present, it is the traditional procurement peak season in March, and downstream beverage factories are stocking up for the upcoming summer consumption peak, providing a certain demand foundation for high prices.
Futures funds rose, with a daily limit up and consecutive large increases, driving up spot sentiment.
Future forecast
In the short term (1-2 weeks), before the crude oil situation becomes clear and the spot shortage subsides, the price of PET bottle flakes will remain strong and prone to rise but difficult to fall. But high prices have accumulated huge risks.
Mid term (end of March April): Beware of rising and falling back
• Risk points:
Crude oil/raw materials fall, cost support weakens
◦ Bottle tablet device restarts, supply rebounds
High price downstream resistance, weak demand for essential goods, chasing price increases and cooling down
Trend: If the raw materials weaken, there is a high probability that the bottle tablets will fall back and fluctuate

On March 11th, the domestic ethylene glycol market experienced ups and downs, with the mainstream spot market in East China closing at 4350 yuan/ton and -20 yuan/ton; The South China market is concerned about the impact of geopolitical issues on supply, and holders are still reluctant to sell. The spot market has sporadic quotations, and the mentality is slightly cautious, closing at 4900 yuan/ton,+450 yuan/ton.
Fundamental analysis:
Supply: As of March 8th, the inventory of diethylene glycol ports in East China was 56000 tons, an increase of 8000 tons compared to the previous statistical period. This week (March 10-16), Zhangjiagang Diethylene Glycol is expected to arrive at a ship of 10500 tons, with an increase in expected port volume. Downstream work and production are gradually resuming, and port shipments may increase. The inventory changes at the main ports in East China are not significant.
Demand: Downstream is gradually recovering, and the unsaturated resin plant is continuing to resume and restart within the week, with demand gradually increasing. According to statistics, the average operating rate of unsaturated resin factories in China this week is 35%, an increase of 20% compared to the previous period. On March 10th, a total of 1522 tons were shipped from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang, an increase of 138 tons from the previous day.
Cost: The market believes that the Iran Israel conflict is expected to end faster than expected, and coupled with the possibility of the G7 group releasing strategic reserves, international oil prices have fallen. The oil price has experienced two significant fluctuations this week. On Monday, benchmark oil prices soared to a nearly four-year high; On Tuesday, US President Trump’s Middle East conflict may soon come to an end, causing oil prices to plummet by 11%; On Tuesday evening, the US Secretary of Energy tweeted that the US Navy had successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to plummet by 20% at one point. If G7 leaders announce substantive measures after the meeting, tonight will become the trigger point for the third consecutive trading day of significant fluctuations in oil prices.
Market expectation: The traditional peak season is approaching, downstream is gradually restarting, demand side support is strong, but the situation in the Middle East is easing, oil prices are under pressure and falling, downstream resistance is strong, and the enthusiasm for actual purchases is poor. The short-term ethylene glycol market is facing pressure.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the market for adipic acid has been continuously rising since March, with prices breaking through 10000 yuan and surging by over 27%. On March 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8300 yuan/ton, and on March 10th, the average market price of adipic acid was 10600 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 27.71%.
The main factors affecting the rise of adipic acid in this round of market trend
On the cost side: Due to geopolitical factors, international crude oil prices continue to rise, directly driving the prices of upstream raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone to strengthen. The raw material market has surged, supporting the rise of adipic acid market.
Pure benzene: In early March, the main listing price of pure benzene was raised to 7200 yuan/ton, and the average spot price in East China once rose to 7270 yuan/ton. At the same time, several major factories raised their listing prices multiple times in early March, gradually pushing them from 9000 yuan/ton to over 12000 yuan/ton. Although on March 10th, crude oil experienced a pullback and the pure benzene market surged and fell back, with prices returning to around 9600 yuan/ton, overall it still rose by more than 50% compared to the beginning of the month.
Cyclohexanone, as another major raw material for adipic acid, is also driven by the crude oil market. In March, some cyclohexanone units entered the maintenance period, and the overall market supply decreased. Spot inventory was at a low level, and manufacturers had a strong willingness to raise prices. From March 1st to 10th, the price of cyclohexanone increased from 7250 yuan/ton to 9900 yuan/ton, an increase of over 36%.
Short term sentiment: As the price of adipic acid continues to hit new highs, market participants are generally cautious, and manufacturers have even experienced lockdowns. On the morning of March 10th, there was a pullback in raw material prices, leading to an increase in market sentiment.
Requirement: Terminal (such as pulp, sole stock solution, PBAT, etc.) rigid procurement is the main focus. However, due to high costs, some traditional demand industries have generally resumed production and are mainly cautious about high priced raw materials. The market is in a game between cost and demand.
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, international crude oil prices will continue to remain high, mainly boosted by the raw material market. Due to the high market demand for adipic acid and cautious terminal demand, there will be insufficient momentum for a sharp rise in the future adipic acid market, with a slight correction being the main factor.

price trend
In the past week (March 2nd to March 8th, 2026), the PA6 market has shown a sustained upward trend with strong cost push and tight supply-demand balance. On March 8th, the benchmark price of PA6 in Shengyi Society has risen to 11833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.90% from 10866.67 yuan/ton on March 2nd. Recently, PA6 has shown a typical cost driven upward trend, mainly due to geopolitical risks and skyrocketing raw material prices; The tight supply resonated with the urgent need to replenish inventory, driving prices to steadily rise during the week.
influencing factors
In terms of cost:
The recent tense situation in the Middle East has pushed up international oil prices, driving up the price of pure benzene for six consecutive years and directly raising the production cost of caprolactam. According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of caprolactam increased from 10133.33 yuan/ton to 10937.50 yuan/ton within the week, with a weekly increase of 7.94%. The significant rise in caprolactam has become the core driving force behind the price increase of PA6.
Supply side:
Recently, the operating rate of the PA6 industry has been about 70%, with some equipment undergoing maintenance and enterprises controlling production and prices, resulting in a temporary tight supply of spot goods. Factory inventory is low, traders are reluctant to sell, low-priced sources are reduced, and suppliers’ bargaining power is enhanced.
In terms of demand:
The downstream textile industry’s production has rebounded to around 70%, entering the post holiday replenishment cycle. Under high prices, procurement is mainly based on small orders of rigid demand, with limited enthusiasm for chasing high prices. However, rigid demand effectively absorbs prices.
Market forecast:
If there is no obvious bearish trend in the short term, the price of PA6 is still prone to rise but difficult to fall, but the inhibitory effect of high prices on downstream demand is accumulating. Focus on the impact of changes in the Middle East situation on upstream crude oil and pure benzene prices in the future.