LLDPE (7042) had an average price of 8506 yuan/ton on August 28th and 9125 yuan/ton on September 3rd, an increase of 7.27%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 10766 yuan/ton on August 28th and 11733 yuan/ton on September 3rd, an increase of 8.98%. HDPE (5000S) had an average price of 10612 yuan/ton on August 28th and 10937 yuan/ton on September 3rd, an increase of 3.06%.
The centralized maintenance of petrochemical facilities in the early stage and the contraction of market circulation sources are the core drivers of this round of price increase, among which LDPE is most significantly affected by maintenance. In September, maintenance facilities will resume production one after another, and domestic sources of goods will gradually be released, while coal production facilities will maintain high operating rates. The expected increase in imported capacity from overseas in the later stage further constrains the upward space of the market. The current overall inventory is still at a low level, which provides some bottom support for prices.
Downstream production has moderately rebounded from the low level in August, and the demand for agricultural film and pipe materials has improved. However, most industries only maintain the demand for immediate use and procurement, and there is insufficient willingness to actively replenish inventory. There is a divergence between the expected and actual peak season of Jinjiu, with high inventory of downstream finished products and weak profits, resulting in strong resistance to high priced raw materials. The demand only achieves weak repair and only serves as a bottom support for the market, making it difficult to drive a significant unilateral increase in prices.
Oil based PE follows the high volatility of crude oil and ethylene, forming a bottom support for spot prices. However, crude oil lacks sustained upward momentum, making it difficult to further push up prices.
The short-term polyethylene market will shift from a rapid rise in the early stage to a high-level oscillation, with insufficient momentum for a large increase, but low inventory and cost support will provide bottom support for the price. With the resumption of production of maintenance equipment, supply pressure is gradually emerging, and downstream acceptance of high priced raw materials is limited, suppressing the upward space in the market.

As of September 1st, the price of 0 # zinc was 26948 yuan/ton, up from 26235 yuan/ton on August 31st, with a daily increase of 2.72%.
Core market data
Domestic futures market
On September 1, 2026, the main contract for Shanghai zinc, ZN2610, closed at 27070 yuan/ton, an increase of 715 yuan/ton or 2.71% from the previous trading day. The intraday high reached 27165 yuan/ton, setting a new historical high since May 2022. The total trading volume of the entire market was 280668 lots, with a turnover of 37.886 billion yuan, holding 341819 lots, and increasing positions by 16934 lots.
International Futures Market
LME zinc futures reached a high of $3990/ton during trading, up 2.68% and hitting a new four-year high simultaneously. LME zinc futures are approaching the $4000 mark.
Fundamentally, the resonance between minerals, smelting, and inventory is exacerbated by the combination of financial factors.
Supply side:
Mining sector: Supply gap continues to widen
Geopolitical ‘black swan’: The escalation of the situation in the Middle East directly blocks the external transportation channels of Iranian zinc mines, with an estimated monthly impact of about 15000 to 20000 tons of metal in the market;
Domestic mining production reduction: Several small and medium-sized mines in major production areas such as Inner Mongolia and Yunnan have gradually stopped production due to safety and environmental inspections and declining grades, resulting in a significant decrease in daily production of domestic mines compared to the previous period;
Imported ore ‘quantity reduction and price increase’: The transaction price of processing fees for imported zinc concentrate in August has fallen to -117.50 US dollars per ton, which means that smelters not only cannot receive processing fees, but also need to pay fees to the mining end. This is the first time since 2008 that there has been a sustained negative processing fee, directly reflecting the extreme level of shortage in the mining end.

Smelting end: Negative processing fees force production reduction
Under the dual pressure of high raw material procurement costs and low prices of by-products such as sulfuric acid, more than half of domestic smelters are already in a cash flow deficit state;
According to incomplete statistics, it is known that the total annual production capacity of refineries involved in maintenance and planned production cuts in September exceeded 800000 tons. It is expected that the refined zinc production for the month will decrease by 25000 to 30000 tons compared to the previous month, and the supply contraction is moving from expectations to reality.
Inventory end
LME zinc registered warehouse receipts have dropped to below 100000 tons, the lowest level in nearly three years.
SHFE inventory decreased by 9497 tons per week to 102672 tons, and the destocking slope accelerated.
comprehensive analysis
The internal and external markets have formed a resonance upward pattern. A structurally strong market trend where the supply and demand fundamentals are transmitted and confirmed layer by layer from the mining end to the smelting end. Above 27000 yuan belongs to the high valuation area, with a high risk of chasing after high prices. It is expected to experience strong fluctuations at high levels and intensify volatility.

In August 2026, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market rose, with an average price of 15465 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16220 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 4.88%.
In August, the overall market showed a bottoming out trend followed by a sustained upward trend. After hitting a low point at the beginning of the month, it fluctuated and rose all the way, reaching a new high at the end of the month.
supply side
Primary lead: Some smelters have been disturbed during maintenance, resulting in a temporary shortage of crude lead raw materials, weak willingness of smelters to ship, and a contraction in spot circulation; Environmental protection and equipment maintenance have led to a temporary contraction in output, supporting spot pricing.
Recycled lead: The supply of waste lead-acid batteries is tight, recycling costs are rising, and the processing profits of recycled lead enterprises are limited. The operating rate has not been significantly released, and the incremental supply of recycled lead to the market is limited.
Overall, there was no significant increase in the effective supply of lead in August, and spot circulation was tight, providing the underlying support for the upward trend in prices.
Demand side
The core downstream applications of lead are concentrated in the field of lead-acid batteries, mainly covering two directions: energy storage scenarios and automotive starter batteries. Among them, in the traditional automotive starter battery sector, the demand for summer terminal battery replacement is gradually recovering, and downstream battery companies are synchronously promoting inventory replenishment. The behavior of buying at low prices directly drives spot consumption; In terms of energy storage lead-acid batteries, with the release of demand for some energy storage projects, the overall operating rate of battery factories remains at a medium to high level. The current industry demand has not shown explosive growth, and overall it is showing a moderate recovery trend. The main driving logic for prices comes from downstream inventory being low, and companies gradually replenishing inventory as the market rises.
Overall summary
The core logic behind the rise in lead prices in August is that supply side contraction is the main cause, downstream demand is moderately recovering and cooperating, and tight spot prices are driving upward price recovery; On a technical level, there has been a complete shift towards a bullish trend, but in the short term, there have been signs of an uptrend. Market outlook: The trend is bullish, but it is not advisable to chase high. First, be alert to the risk of high-level fluctuations and pullbacks, and wait for a pullback before seeing multiple opportunities. Focus on tracking changes in the supply side.

This week (8.24-8.28), the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi region fell, with an average market price of 15900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 15850 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.13%.
The following analysis is based on fundamentals:
Supply and demand side

The maintenance and resumption of production work on the supply side continues to be implemented, and the operating rate of the entire industry maintains a steady upward trend. Currently, the overall supply in the spot market is in a relatively loose range. At present, the sales strategies of magnesium smelting enterprises are showing obvious differentiation: small and medium-sized manufacturers are facing dual pressures of inventory backlog and capital turnover, coupled with the current demand for cash flow recovery in a loss making state. The willingness to follow the market and lower prices continues to increase, and low-priced sources continue to emerge in the market, becoming the core influencing factor in lowering the overall price center.

The overall market operation on the demand side remains stable. The domestic industrial chain generally maintains a low inventory turnover mode in various links, and the entire industry generally implements a procurement strategy of on-demand purchase. The market lacks effective support from centralized buying. From the perspective of exports, although the summer break in Europe and America has gradually entered its final stage and the overseas market inquiry volume has shown a marginal rebound, the attitude of overseas buyers to lower prices is still firm, and new orders are generally dominated by small batch essential orders.

Raw material end

The overall increase in core raw material prices this week has driven up the comprehensive production cost of magnesium. The price of coal in the production area continues to rise against the trend, reaching a new high for the year; The market quotation of ferrosilicon also shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend. The current comprehensive cost of magnesium has significantly exceeded the spot market price, and the industry as a whole has entered a loss zone. The extent of losses for small and medium-sized smelting enterprises continues to expand, further highlighting the situation of cash flow pressure.
integrated forecasting
The short-term magnesium price is in a weak equilibrium pattern of “cost support at the bottom and demand suppression at the top”. The space for deep decline is limited, but the rebound momentum is insufficient. Follow up on the order recovery after the end of overseas summer vacation and the downstream replenishment rhythm of “Golden September and Silver October”.

As of August 26th, the domestic isobutyraldehyde price was 8133.33 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 22.00% compared to the isobutyraldehyde price of 6666.67 yuan/ton on August 1st; The price of isobutyraldehyde decreased by 1.21% from 8233.33 yuan/ton on August 25th. The downstream market for neopentyl glycol is stabilizing, but the demand for isobutyraldehyde still remains supported. The price of raw material propylene is fluctuating and falling, and the demand support for cost reduction is weakening. The price of isobutyraldehyde has fallen from its high level.
The price of raw material propylene first rose and then fell
On August 26th, the propylene price was 8807.67 yuan/ton, which increased first and then decreased compared to the propylene price of 7927.67 yuan/ton on August 1st, with an increase of 11.10%; Compared to the high of 9017.67 yuan/ton on August 20th, the price of propylene has fallen by 2.33%. Since mid August, the price of propylene has fallen from a high level, the cost of isobutyraldehyde has decreased, and the downward pressure on isobutyraldehyde has increased.
Downstream isobutyraldehyde demand support weakens
The price of neopentyl glycol increased significantly in August. On August 26th, Yantai Wanhua quoted 9950-10100 yuan/ton, a significant increase from the August 1st quotation of 8850-8000 yuan/ton, and stabilized from the August 20th price; The price of neopentyl glycol quoted by Luxi Chemical is 8400 yuan/ton, a significant increase from the price of 7700 yuan/ton quoted on August 1st, and the price has stabilized compared to August 20th. In August, the price of neopentyl glycol rose sharply. With the price reaching a high level, downstream absorption was weak, and market fear of heights gradually emerged. There were differences in opinions among industry players, and the price of neopentyl glycol fell in the middle of the month, weakening the support for demand for isobutyraldehyde.
Supply continues to tighten
The continuous tightening of the supply side was the core driving force behind the price increase in August. The production of isobutyraldehyde has significantly decreased, and the maintenance of the Wanhua plant in Yantai has reduced the production of isobutyraldehyde to 60%. From August 7th to 13th, the weekly production of isobutyraldehyde was 1067 tons, with a weekly consumption of 8755.8 tons, resulting in a supply-demand gap of 1914.25 tons; From August 14th to 20th, production further decreased to 976 tons and consumption was 5713 tons. Leading enterprises continue to engage in additional external procurement, and isobutyraldehyde is in short supply with high prices remaining firm.
Market Overview and Forecast
Analysts believe that the current price of isobutyraldehyde is in the high range of the nearly one-year cycle. The upstream propylene market first rose and then fell, with weakened cost support; The downstream market for neopentyl glycol has declined, but there is still some support for isobutyraldehyde. Overall, the demand for cost reduction is weak, and the upward momentum of isobutyraldehyde has significantly narrowed. At the same time, the tightening of supply has limited the downward space of isobutyraldehyde prices. In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the future, and the expectation of a mid-term decline in isobutyraldehyde is increasing.