In the second half of July, the formaldehyde market as a whole saw a slight rise, followed by a temporary correction and bottoming out, and then a strong rebound. As of July 27th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong region was reported at 1278 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.81% compared to the middle of the month.
Driving factor analysis
Cost side: Raw material methanol strengthens from weak to strong, providing upward support
The price of formaldehyde does not fluctuate synchronously with the real-time fluctuations of methanol, and there is a 3-5 trading day transmission cycle; After unilateral fluctuations in raw materials, formaldehyde often delays the realization of positive or negative effects. At present, methanol has fallen from a high level, and formaldehyde is gradually digesting the cost benefits brought by the rise in raw materials in the early stage. The negative impact of short-term decline in raw materials has not yet been transmitted to the formaldehyde end.
Supply side: Periodic tightening of supply, controllable inventory pressure
During the price correction phase in mid to late July, some companies controlled their load due to poor profits, resulting in a contraction of market supply; Mainstream equipment maintenance and load reduction in the region continue, and the overall inventory of finished products from manufacturers remains at a medium low level, without forming a large-scale accumulation of inventory. After the price fell to a low level, downstream demand increased on dips, further accelerating inventory depletion and helping prices rebound from the bottom.
On the demand side: traditional off-season constraints on price increases, only rigid demand support
The downstream of formaldehyde is mainly in the artificial board and adhesive industries, and July and August are traditionally the off-season for demand. The high temperature and rainfall have affected the operation of the sheet metal factory, resulting in insufficient terminal orders and a lack of willingness to stock up on a large scale downstream. Overall, the on-demand procurement model is maintained.
This round of price increase relies more on cost push and low-priced replenishment, rather than an outbreak of terminal demand. The long-term suppression on the demand side will limit the space for sustained price increases.
Market forecast:
In the short term, the formaldehyde market will continue to fluctuate strongly and the upward slope will slow down. There is still room for price inertia to rise, but the momentum for sustained unilateral surges is insufficient; After entering August, with the gradual transmission of negative costs and the strengthening of demand constraints during the off-season, we need to be vigilant about the risk of market surges and downturns.

As of July 24th, the price of 0 # zinc was 24657 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 1.09% compared to the zinc price of 24390 yuan/ton on July 20th.
fundamentals
The overall domestic zinc price shows a pattern of high volatility and a slight downward shift in the center of gravity. The price rises first and then falls during the week, and the long short game is intense.
Supply side: The shortage in the mining sector continues to deepen, and the expectation of reduced production in the smelting sector is heating up
The processing fee for zinc concentrate continues to break historical lows, and the average price of TC for domestic mines has been lowered to -500 yuan/ton in July. TC for overseas zinc mines also continues to decline at low levels; As a result, the domestic refined zinc production has declined in June 2026. According to institutional forecasts, the domestic refined zinc production in July was about 549500 tons, a decrease of 13000 tons compared to the previous month, and the production will further decline. At present, the smelting profit based on domestic ore as raw material and taking into account the by-product income is generally below the profit and loss line. With the continuous expansion of comprehensive smelting losses, the probability of expanding the scope of industry maintenance has significantly increased. However, there is still an expected month on month increase in the underground half of the year in Hunan, Henan and other regions, and the actual realization of subsequent concentrated production cuts still needs to be observed.
Demand side: Traditional consumption has significant off-season characteristics, and downstream customers are cautious in receiving goods
In July, it was the traditional off-season for zinc consumption in the zinc market, and downstream enterprises such as galvanizing and die-casting zinc alloys saw a marginal decline in operating rates. The overall inventory of galvanized sheet is at a high level; The operating rates of die-casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide are showing a downward trend. Downstream enterprises maintain low inventory operation, with weak willingness to replenish at low prices and a weak market transaction atmosphere. The spot market continues to show a discount situation, and the downstream acceptance of high prices is insufficient. However, there are signs of a rebound in demand for galvanized steel in infrastructure construction, and there has been an increase in bidding for power grids and transportation guardrails. Galvanized steel and infrastructure orders have provided some support to the demand side. Overall, the characteristic of the demand side being “not weak in the off-season” is not yet obvious, with rigid procurement as the main focus and concentrated stockpiling absent.
comprehensive analysis
Short term zinc prices are expected to continue the pattern of high volatility and range consolidation. The subsequent market evolution needs to focus on three major variables: whether the TC processing fee at the mining end can stop falling and stabilize; Zinc ingot inventory situation; On the eve of the traditional peak season of “Golden September and Silver October”, has the pace of downstream terminal replenishment started ahead of schedule. Under the two-way tug of war between mining support and off-season drag, zinc prices are difficult to break out of a unilateral trend in the short term, and range oscillation remains the main theme.

1、 Trend analysis
This week, copper prices first rose and then fell. As of July 17th, copper prices were reported at 104191 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.77% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 33.48%.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, with 300600 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, down 1.51% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, the US June CPI fell 0.4% month on month, PPI fell 0.3% month on month, and inflation data was generally lower than expected. The US dollar index was under pressure and fell to a three week low near 100.50. However, during a congressional hearing, the Federal Reserve reiterated its “zero tolerance” for high inflation and downplayed the significance of the improvement in monthly data.
Supply side: Supply side disruptions have further intensified this week. The copper concentrate processing fee TC continues to have a deep negative value, and the long-term bidding has been as low as -250 US dollars per dry ton; The mainstream fixed number transactions are concentrated between -135 and -140 US dollars per ton. In Chile, due to the strong winter front system, heavy snowfall and rainfall may cause short-term disturbances to road transportation and port loading in the northern core mining area. In May, major copper companies in Chile saw a significant decline in production, with Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine, experiencing a year-on-year decrease of 17.6%. The new chairman of Chile’s National Copper Company announced that the assessment core will shift from “production expansion” to “profit priority”, further weakening the supply elasticity. Domestically, as of July 16th, the social inventory of electrolytic copper in mainstream regions of China has dropped to 123400 tons, a decrease of 16600 tons from July 13th.
On the demand side: The demand side continues to be sluggish during the off-season, but high prices are significantly suppressed. Downstream enterprises have weak willingness to accept goods at high prices, and the spot premium is fluctuating around 300 yuan/ton. The trading of refined copper rods in the market has not shown a significant rebound, and orders rely on the purchasing support of large end users. The operating rate of small and medium-sized downstream enterprises is relatively low. LME copper inventory has dropped to 300600 tons, the lowest since February, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts has risen to about 43%.
In summary, the tight supply and mining situation is difficult to reverse, and the negative value of TC depth continues; On the inventory side, domestic social inventory continues to hit a new low for the year, with low inventory providing solid support. But be cautious: weak consumption during the off-season and weak willingness to stock up at high prices downstream; The premium for US copper has dropped to around $340 compared to London copper; COMEX’s high inventory continues to distort global trade flows. Overall, the bullish logic in the industry is still solid, but macro and geopolitical uncertainties have increased, and it is expected that copper prices may weaken and fluctuate in the short term.

1、 Price trend
As of July 16th, the reference average price of urea market in Shandong Province, China is 1770 yuan/ton, which is 1.73% lower than the reference average price of 1801 yuan/ton on July 10th.
2、 Market analysis
market situation
This week, the domestic urea market continued to operate weakly. The urea futures market is weakening, which is bearish for the spot market. At present, there is sufficient supply in the urea market, and there is a slight increase in agricultural demand. As of July 16th, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1710-1780 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1760-1790 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1700-1790 yuan/ton, Hubei is around 1720-1760 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1850-1870 yuan/ton.
Supply and demand situation
In terms of supply, the current operating rate of urea enterprises is relatively high, the market supply is sufficient, and daily production remains high. In terms of demand, the agricultural demand for urea has slightly improved, downstream fertilizer procurement has increased, and industrial demand remains flat.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that the domestic urea market has been declining recently. At present, although the demand for urea has improved, there is a large supply of goods in the market and inventory pressure is high. It is expected that the domestic urea market will be weak in the short term, mainly due to consolidation and operation.

1、 Trend analysis
Nickel prices have fluctuated and risen this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 129100 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.11% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 6.77%.
Macroscopically, the European Central Bank has raised interest rates for the first time in three years, with the three key interest rates increasing by 25 basis points, signaling a global tightening restart. The US PPI surged to 6.5% year-on-year in May, the largest increase in over three years, and inflation stickiness far exceeded expectations. The US President suddenly announced the cancellation of the planned strike against Iran, causing geopolitical risks to cool overnight. Crude oil plummeted by over 8% during trading, and risk aversion quickly receded. Gold and silver rose simultaneously. The US stock market rebounded sharply in response, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average soaring nearly 930 points in a single day, and all three major indexes closing higher. Technology stocks led the rise, driving a rebound in risk appetite.
On the supply side, the approval pace of RKAB in Indonesia dominates the mining sector, with high nickel iron production but evident cost support; MHP and high nickel ice supply are loose. In June 2026, China’s refined nickel production was 31760 tons, a decrease of 5.90% month on month and 7.98% year-on-year; The estimated refined nickel production in China for July is 31440 tons, a decrease of 1.01% month on month and 13.03% year-on-year. At present, the equipment production capacity of domestic refined nickel enterprises is 52265 tons, the operating capacity is 49515 tons, the operating rate is 94.74%, and the capacity utilization rate is 60.77%.
On the demand side: There has been no significant improvement on the demand side, with downstream demand maintaining a pace of rigid procurement, and overall spot transactions being sluggish. The overall demand for downstream electroplating is relatively stable, and it is difficult to see growth in the later stage; The consumption of alloys is gradually recovering, with good demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. Stainless steel shows weak performance and limited terminal acceptance; MHP supports the cost of nickel sulfate, but there is no significant increase in downstream ternary precursor orders, and nickel sulfate prices are mainly fluctuating.
In summary, the macro expectations are fluctuating, and there is a certain contradiction between the decrease in risk appetite for non-ferrous metals and the expectation of sulfur shortage. The nickel ore quota is still the main focus in the near future, and the uncertainty is still high. The pyrometallurgical ore is facing a pullback, but the supply and demand at the smelting end are tight. The overall sulfur support of the wet process is still high, and inventory pressure is still significant. Short term nickel prices are mainly subject to broad adjustments in the market.