Introduction: Methanol is a colorless and clear liquid, and its vapor can form an explosive mixture with air, producing blue fire when burned. Methanol can be miscible with organic solvents such as water, ethanol, benzene, and ketones. Its vapor forms an explosive mixture with air, which can ignite and explode when exposed to open flames or high heat energy. The methanol model monitored by Business Society is of superior quality.
In 2025, the domestic methanol market will be affected by supply growth, import shocks, and weak demand, resulting in a prominent imbalance between supply and demand, and prices will fluctuate downward throughout the year. Accelerating the layout of green methanol under the global “dual carbon” goal injects variables into the long-term development of the industry. Business Society reviews the market in 2025 based on prices, supply and demand, policies, and external environment, and predicts the trend for 2026.
1、 Core Performance of Methanol Market in 2025: Price Fluctuations Downward, Weak Pattern Throughout the Year
（1） In 2025, the methanol market will continue to be weak, with a downward shift in price focus and periodic fluctuations that are difficult to reverse
Overall trend: oscillating downward, with significant amplitude within the year
According to monitoring data from the Business Society Analysis System, the price of methanol for the whole year of 2025 will follow a trajectory of “first falling, then fluctuating, and then bottoming out”, reaching a high point in mid March (driven by Spring Festival stocking), and bottoming out in early June and late November (affected by the off-season and peak import inventory, respectively). The average spot price at the end of the year has fallen by more than 15% compared to the beginning of the year, reaching a nearly three-year low, and industry profitability continues to be under pressure.
（2） Fluctuating Logic: Short term Factors Disturb, Long term Supply and Demand Dominate
The price has rebounded several times in the short term during the year, driven by temporary events such as the Iran Israel conflict, adjustments to coal supply policies, and seasonal stocking. However, due to the lack of sustainability and the core contradiction of supply-demand imbalance, the rebound quickly fell back without forming a trend reversal.
2、 Analysis of core driving factors: supply-demand imbalance as the core, policy and international situation as auxiliary variables
（1） Supply and demand pattern: Dual expansion on the supply side, weak support on the demand side
The imbalance between supply and demand is the core weakness of the market, with a sharp contrast between the dual increase of “production capacity+imports” on the supply side and the “traditional weakness+emerging shortage” on the demand side.
1. Supply side: Double high production capacity and imports, severely loose supply
By 2025, the total domestic methanol production capacity will reach 108.045 million tons per year (+5% year-on-year), with the newly added capacity concentrated in the northwest coal production field. The average annual operating rate of coal to methanol plants is 80%, while that of natural gas plants is 49%. The overall operating rate of the industry exceeds 78%, and the production is sufficient.
The expected import volume is 14.28 million tons (+5.9% year-on-year, reaching a historical high). In the second half of the year, overseas sources of goods will flood in, and port inventory will accumulate to a peak of 1.674 million tons in November, strongly suppressing spot prices.
2. Demand side: Traditional weakness, emerging still in the cultivation period
The core downstream MTO industry is affected by the inverted profit of polyolefins, resulting in long-term losses and low operating levels of external procurement equipment; The growth rate of traditional downstream demand such as formaldehyde and acetic acid has slowed down, and small and medium-sized enterprises have reduced their burden, resulting in weakened methanol digestion capacity.

Emerging demands such as methanol fuel and commercial vehicles are gradually being released, but due to their small scale, limited by standards and supporting facilities, they cannot make up for the traditional demand gap in the short term.
（2） Policy and External Environment: Accelerating Green Transformation, Moderately Disturbing International Situation
1. Policy environment: Dual carbon driven transformation, traditional industries under pressure
The domestic “dual carbon” target promotes the layout of green methanol, and many regions have introduced supportive policies. However, traditional coal and natural gas based methanol still account for over 95%. The policies of coal supply guarantee and environmental protection production restriction have affected the cost and supply stability of traditional methanol, exacerbating profit pressure.
2. International situation: loose global supply, short-term geopolitical disturbances
Global methanol supply is loose, and low international prices are dragging down domestic demand. Events such as the Israel Iran conflict and maintenance of Iranian facilities have temporarily disrupted import volumes, but have not changed the overall situation, and the impact is limited and short-lived.
3、 Market outlook for 2026: Short term stage rebound, long-term pattern reconstruction is expected
（1） Short term (early 2026): Import contraction combined with inventory depletion, prices may experience a temporary rebound
At the beginning of 2026, the winter inspection in Iran led to a contraction in imports, coupled with downstream resumption of work after the Spring Festival, easing port inventory pressure, improving supply and demand margins, and a temporary rebound in prices. However, the rebound height is still fluctuating at a low level due to the limitations of MTO profit recovery and traditional demand recovery.
（2） Long term: The rapid rise of green methanol and the gradual restructuring of the industry landscape
In the long run, the planned growth of green methanol production capacity will slow down, and traditional methanol will still dominate in the next 2-3 years. With the advancement of technology and cost reduction, the potential application of green methanol in the fields of shipping and new energy vehicles is released, and coupled with the pressure of the EU CBAM policy, it will become the core track. High cost traditional equipment is accelerating its clearance, increasing industry concentration, and shifting towards a “green, high-end, and centralized” pattern.
4. Summary
The core contradiction in the methanol market in 2025 is the imbalance between supply and demand, leading to a downward fluctuation in prices. In the short term of 2026, there may be an improvement due to import contraction and inventory depletion, but the industry is still in a transitional period between clearing traditional production capacity and cultivating green production capacity. In the future, breakthroughs and application expansion of green methanol technology, as well as the recovery of traditional demand, will determine the evolution of the industry’s landscape and lead it towards a new pattern of green transformation.

After the high platform volatility of silver prices at the end of December 2025, prices continued to rise in January. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on the afternoon of January 13, 2026, the silver market quoted 21043.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 13.87% from the peak spot price of 18480 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (1.3).
The recent surge in silver prices is the result of the resonance between macro finance, supply and demand fundamentals, geopolitical risk aversion, and fund sentiment. The core driving force is the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the outbreak of industrial demand coupled with the widening supply gap, the tense geopolitical situation driving up safe haven buying, and the combined amplification of volatility by policies such as China’s export controls and speculative funds. as follows:
Macro finance: Expectations of interest rate cuts and weakening of the US dollar lead to reduced opportunity costs
In January 2026, the US CPI and core CPI were lower than expected. The market is betting that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25BP in March will increase to 75%, and the probability of consecutive interest rate cuts in June will exceed 90%, driving down real interest rates and the US dollar index below 100. This will increase the attractiveness of silver denominated in US dollars. For every 1% drop in the US dollar, silver usually rises by 1.5% -2%, and the opportunity cost of holding silver decreases simultaneously.
Developed economies have high debt and weakened US dollar credit, with central banks increasing their holdings of gold and precious metals, and silver benefiting from asset revaluation following gold.
Supply and demand fundamentals: Industrial demand erupts, supply gap continues to widen:
On the demand side, photovoltaics are the largest consumer of silver, with a global silver consumption of 7560 tons by 2025, accounting for 55% of total demand and doubling from 2022; The demand for new energy vehicles, AI servers and other fields is growing synchronously, with industrial demand increasing by 13% year-on-year in 2025.
Supply side: The global silver shortage has lasted for five consecutive years, with a shortfall of about 3660 tons by 2025. In 2026, China will implement a “single review” for silver exports, and 60% -70% of refined silver worldwide depends on China, further tightening supply expectations. And 70% -80% of silver comes from copper lead zinc associated mines, making it difficult for independent silver mines to rapidly expand production capacity. Strikes and grade declines in major producing countries exacerbate supply rigidity.
Inventory side: About 80% of LBMA inventory is locked up or invalid inventory by ETFs, and inventory in key markets such as the previous period is at a historical low. The shortage of spot goods has pushed up expectations of crowding out and price increases.
Geopolitics and funding: Rising risk aversion combined with speculative sentiment, amplified volatility:
Geopolitical events such as the US raid on Venezuela triggered safe haven buying, and spot silver rose 9.72% in the first week of January, with a single day increase of over 6%.
Data shows that COMEX’s net long position in silver speculation is still at a high level, and the influx of funds strengthens the wealth effect. Even though the CME has raised its margin three times (the latest increase in January was 28.6%), speculative enthusiasm has not significantly cooled down.
Policy and structural factors: strategic attributes and short-term catalysis:
Silver has been included in the key mineral list of the United States, and the market expects an increase in demand for strategic reserves; China’s export control intensifies global supply tension, with 44 companies obtaining export qualifications, raising global circulation costs through ‘single review’
Futures delivery and index rebalancing trigger short-term fluctuations, but funds quickly flow back under the support of fundamentals, driving a counter trend upward trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic formic acid market has shown a continuous sideways consolidation trend recently. As of January 2nd, the benchmark price of 85% formic acid in Shengyi Society was 2300 yuan/ton, which was the same as the same period last week (January 5th), a month on month decrease of 20.96%, and a year-on-year decrease of 22.03%.
From the supply side perspective, the formation of a stable market pattern began with the resolution of the trilateral talks before January 5th. The three core formic acid production enterprises in Liaocheng, Feicheng, and Jingzhou, Hubei have reached an agreement through negotiation to implement varying degrees of production reduction and price protection measures. From the subsequent market performance, although the production reduction measures did not immediately change the overall pattern of loose market supply, they effectively curbed the risk of price decline and sent a clear signal of price support. During this period, the shipment situation of upstream enterprises remained stable. Although there was no significant increase in volume, the normal sales rhythm was maintained, and the inventory level showed a mild downward trend.
The demand side performance shows a characteristic of phased changes. On January 6th, there was a clear downstream wait-and-see sentiment in the market, with buyers mainly focusing on maintaining rigid demand, resulting in a relatively light trading atmosphere. But as prices remain stable for a long time, the purchasing pace of downstream enterprises gradually tends to stabilize. By January 12th, the market demand side has formed a stable purchasing trend. It is worth noting that on the 12th, there was a slight discount for end customers with large orders in the market, but this partial adjustment did not shake the overall trend of strong mainstream prices.
On the cost side, methanol, the main raw material for formic acid production, showed a trend of recovery and fluctuation in the market during the same period. From January 4th to 9th, the methanol quotation at East China ports increased from 2245 yuan/ton to 2265 yuan/ton. The mild support on the cost side also provided favorable conditions for formic acid enterprises to raise prices. Based on the comprehensive supply-demand relationship and cost factors, the current formic acid market has formed a balanced pattern of “loose supply but reduced production to support the bottom, stable demand and orderly procurement, and moderate cost support”.
Formic acid data analysts believe that based on the stable performance of both supply and demand, strong willingness of enterprises to raise prices, and a benign cycle of mild inventory decline, it is expected that the domestic formic acid market will continue to maintain a sideways consolidation trend, with limited room for price fluctuations. We need to focus on the continued implementation of upstream production reduction measures and the further release of downstream demand in the future.

This week’s news is calm, but the fundamentals are still weak, with local inventory pressure. However, there is no expectation of a reduction in supply in the short term, and demand remains flat. The main suppliers of acrylonitrile have continuously lowered their quotes, and the market decline has widened. As of January 9th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 7250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from last week; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market is 7200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from last week.
Loose supply:
There is no fluctuation in the equipment during the cycle, and major factories in East China are maintaining high load operation. The 520000 ton acrylonitrile plant in Zhejiang is currently operating at around 85% of its capacity; The 130000 ton acrylonitrile plant in Shandong is currently undergoing maintenance, and the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry remains at around 80%, with no significant changes in the supply and demand fundamentals. According to statistics, as of January 8th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories reached 78.82%, an increase of 0.49% compared to the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 89800 tons, which is+0.05 million tons compared to the previous cycle. The total inventory is about 63500 tons, an increase of 0.255 million tons from last week, with local accumulation continuing and inventory pressure increasing.
Average demand:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries has fluctuated, among which the ABS capacity utilization rate was 69.8%, a decrease of -0.1% compared to last week; After a brief maintenance, the Hangzhou Bay acrylic fiber was restored, and the Jilin Chemical Fiber Huarong plant was restarted. The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises reached 57.58%, an increase of 10.47% compared to last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 54.19%, which was -0.65% compared to last week. Overall, there has been an increase in demand, but the growth rate is not significant, and the overall demand is average.
Cost increase:
During the week, upstream propylene prices continued to rise, leading to increased costs, while acrylonitrile prices continued to decline, resulting in a significant increase in production losses this week. According to statistics, as of January 8th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 5840 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton from last weekend’s 5730 yuan/ton. The average production cost of acrylonitrile is 8234 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of+0.88%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -904 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -373 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, the domestic acrylonitrile market is currently weak and consolidating, with some buying orders following suit after continuous declines, and the pressure of losses is increasing. The market downturn has been temporarily postponed. However, the fundamentals are still weak, and the demand side maintains a flat performance. However, there may be fluctuations in the supply side in the future, and the market has limited room for further decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of PTA in China will show a “W” trend in 2025. As of December 31, the average market price in East China was 5079 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.04% from the beginning of the year.
It can be divided into four stages:
1、 From the beginning of the year to mid April: fluctuating downward trend
At the beginning of the year, the price fluctuated around 4900 yuan/ton. After a brief rebound in March, there was a significant decline in April, dropping to a low of around 4300 yuan/ton for the whole year, with a decline of more than 10%. This was mainly affected by fluctuations in raw materials and weak downstream polyester demand.
2、 Late April to June: Rapid rebound
After a low price, the price began to rebound strongly, rebounding to a high of over 5200 yuan in just two months, with an increase of more than 20%. During this period, the rise in raw material PX prices, PTA plant maintenance leading to supply contraction, coupled with downstream demand for resumption of work and replenishment of inventory, jointly promoted the price rebound.
3、 July to October: Second decline
After rebounding, the price entered a downward channel again, continuously fluctuating and falling from July to October. The center of gravity of crude oil prices continued to shift downwards, and the demand side was affected by the prolonged duration of high temperatures, resulting in a slower start-up time. Downstream polyester production rates declined, PTA spot demand was weak, and the market supply and demand pattern weakened.
4、 From November to the end of the year: Strong upward trend at the end of the year
After hitting bottom in October, the price experienced a significant rebound at the end of the year and continued to rise since November, reaching over 5100 yuan at the end of the year with an increase of over 10%. This round of price increase is mainly due to the support of PX raw material costs, the elimination of PTA social inventory, and the increase in downstream polyester enterprise stocking demand at the end of the year. The recovery of market sentiment has driven prices to rise rapidly.
Overall, the core drivers of PTA price fluctuations in 2025 are raw material costs, supply changes caused by equipment maintenance, and seasonal fluctuations in downstream polyester and textile demand.
From the price trend in the past three years, the price in 2025 will mainly fluctuate in the range of 4500-5000 yuan/ton, and overall remain at a low level.
Looking ahead to 2026:
In terms of production capacity, by the end of 2025, the total PTA production capacity will reach 94.715 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 10%. In terms of production, the expected domestic PTA production in 2025 is 73.9 million tons, an increase of 2.1 million tons compared to 2024, with a production growth rate of 2.9%, lower than the capacity growth rate. Affected by low processing fees, there has been an increase in factory maintenance and load reduction, resulting in a decline in PTA capacity utilization rate to around 78% by 2025. There is a phenomenon of opening new production capacity and stopping old production capacity, so although the production growth rate is high, the actual supply increment of PTA is relatively limited.
At present, there is no new production capacity for PTA in 2026, and the long-term plan is difficult to implement within the year. The 7-year production period is expected to end. The industry is still in a cycle of overcapacity, and low processing fees are forcing supply contraction and supply-demand balance. Processing fees are expected to recover.

rom the perspective of export volume, it is expected that the total export volume of PTA in 2025 will be 3.85 million tons, a decrease of about 500000 tons compared to 2024. PTA export growth is subject to certain bottlenecks, mainly affected by India’s BIS certification policy and the production of local PTA devices in Türkiye. Previously, due to restrictions on BIS certification in India, China’s PTA exports to India decreased by 370000 tons year-on-year from January to October 2025. However, on November 12th, India announced the immediate revocation of BIS certification for PTA products, giving Chinese PTA producers the opportunity to re-enter the Indian market and quickly repair exports. The PTA export volume for the month was 358900 tons, an increase of 61.26% compared to the previous month, and it is expected that domestic PTA exports may improve significantly in the short term.
In terms of cost, in 2025, under the dominance of loose supply and demand and the disturbance of geopolitical events, the overall performance of the crude oil market is relatively sluggish, and international oil prices are showing a fluctuating downward trend. WTI crude oil fell by about 18% throughout the year, while Brent crude oil fell by about 17% throughout the year. The external environment of crude oil in 2026 is still quite complex, with intricate geopolitical situations and constant conflicts, which will have a direct impact on oil prices from time to time and cause fluctuations in the crude oil market. The supply-demand game still dominates, and the oversupply will continue until the first half of 2026. OPEC+may restart production cuts, but the effect is limited, and prices are likely to continue to decline.
In 2025, domestic PX prices will experience a wide range of fluctuations. As of December 31, the PX market price was 7500 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.51% from the beginning of the year. PX’s overseas new production capacity has been released, causing pressure from oversupply and weak price adjustments, resulting in a low point for the year in the second quarter. With the concentrated maintenance of Asian facilities, supply contraction supported the rebound after hitting bottom in the fourth quarter. In addition, the PTA industry has overcapacity and low processing fees, and is cautious about PX procurement, which suppresses the upward space of PX prices. In the fourth quarter, PTA processing fees began to recover, so the marginal demand for PX has improved.
Starting from 2024, with the deep adjustment of the national industrial structure and the continuous optimization of the market pattern, the PX industry has entered a period of capacity expansion platform. From the perspective of supply expectations, there will be no new PX production capacity in China by 2025. After excluding long-term shutdown capacity, the total PX production capacity will be 43.44 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of -0.5%. In terms of production, the expected domestic PX production in 2025 is 38.4 million tons, an increase of 700000 tons compared to 2024, with a production growth rate of 1.9%. By 2025, the domestic capacity utilization rate of PX will further increase to 88.4%, and currently the capacity utilization rate of the PX industry has reached its highest level in recent years. At the same time, the new facilities planned to be put into operation in 2026 are generally concentrated in the second half of the year, and there is a risk of delay, and the space for increasing stock supply is also relatively limited. Under the guidance of the “anti internal competition” policy, supply side contraction may become the norm, further optimizing the industrial pattern. The bullish sentiment in the market is heating up, and PX prices may continue to operate strongly.

In terms of demand, the overall trend of prices for various categories of polyester in China in 2025 is relatively consistent, with a significant shift in focus compared to the beginning of the year. Among them, polyester POY decreased by 5.93%, polyester DTY decreased by 6.25%, polyester FDY decreased by 8.69%, and polyester staple fiber decreased by 8.69%.
After the Spring Festival, downstream weaving resumption did not meet expectations, resulting in a shortage of terminal orders. Polyester enterprises quickly accumulated inventory and took the initiative to lower prices to reduce inventory. Prices quickly fell from high levels in January to March and hit the lowest point of the first round of the year in mid to late March. From April to June, there was a phase of rebound and repair, with June reaching the mid year rebound high point. Upstream PX and PTA prices stabilized and rebounded, providing cost support. Coupled with the phased replenishment of overseas orders, downstream weaving operating rates rebounded, driving polyester procurement demand. After July, prices entered a volatile downward channel again, and the recovery of domestic and foreign demand for terminal textiles and clothing was weak. The peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” fell through, coupled with the continuous release of production capacity in the polyester industry, the supply-demand contradiction intensified, and prices were under pressure.
Polyester production capacity will continue to expand in 2025, but the growth rate of production capacity will slow down compared to the previous two years. By 2025, a total of 4.45 million tons of polyester production capacity will be added (excluding obsolete production capacity), and the total production capacity will reach 89.84 million tons by the end of the year, with a production capacity growth rate of 5.21%. In terms of production, the cumulative production of polyester in 2025 is expected to be 79.44 million tons, an increase of 5.01 million tons compared to 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.7%. By 2025, the overall capacity utilization rate of the polyester industry will be around 86%, which is at a relatively high level in recent years and provides rigid demand support for PTA.
From the perspective of 2026, the polyester industry will continue to have new production capacity entering, with a production plan of 4.1 million tons. It is expected that the polyester production capacity will reach around 93.94 million tons by the end of 2026, with a capacity growth rate of 4.6%. Overall, it will slow down compared to 2025. Among them, the planned production of polyester filament is 2 million tons, and the total production capacity is expected to reach 57.2 million tons by 2026, with a capacity growth rate of 3.6%. The planned production of 900000 tons of polyester staple fiber is expected to reach a total capacity of 10.79 million tons by 2026, with a capacity growth rate of 9%. The planned production of polyester bottle flakes is 700000 tons, and the total production capacity is expected to reach 22.63 million tons by 2026, with a capacity growth rate of 3.2%. The remaining newly added production capacity is for recycled new materials.
The growth rate of polyester production capacity in China has slowed down, and factories are actively expanding overseas channels due to overcapacity. Investment enthusiasm is rising in Southeast Asia, Egypt and other places, and polyester exports will continue to maintain high growth of about 14.58 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%. Among them, the export performance of polyester staple fiber is particularly outstanding, with an expected export of 1.7 million tons, an increase of 400000 tons compared to last year, with a growth rate of 30%. Next is the expected export of 4.25 million tons of polyester filament, an increase of about 370000 tons compared to last year, with a growth rate of 10.7%. The high growth rate of polyester exports has become an important digestion pathway for new production. Driven by factors such as domestic production capacity, cost and profit advantages, overseas demand expansion, favorable trade policies, and global enterprise layout, export demand will continue to grow in 2026.

As the terminal of PTA, the demand for textiles and clothing has shown a steady and low-speed growth trend both domestically and internationally. From the perspective of weaving, the average operating rate of weaving machines in 2025 is 63%, which is a decline compared to 2024.
The growth rate of domestic demand for textiles and clothing in China has remained stable. From January to November, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, textiles, and knitwear by enterprises above designated size reached 135.967 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%.
In terms of exports, from January to November, China’s textile and clothing exports totaled 267.8 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%. Among them, the export value of textiles was 130.01 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, continuing to maintain a steady growth trend; The export value of clothing was 137.79 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, and the decline rate has expanded. In 2026, with the “15th Five Year Plan” clearly stating that expanding domestic demand will be the strategic basis, coupled with continuous policy catalysis, the overall textile and service industry is expected to gradually recover. However, the degree of recovery is affected by multiple factors, such as geopolitical uncertainty, fluctuations in raw material prices, and rising labor costs.
In summary, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that there will be no new production capacity for PX in the first half of 2026, and centralized maintenance in the second quarter will widen the supply-demand gap, providing favorable cost support for PTA. PTA has zero new production capacity, and the industry has entered a vacuum period of production. Low processing fees have forced outdated production capacity to be cleared, reducing supply pressure. Downstream polyester, especially in India where BIS certification has been cancelled and export channels have resumed, has seen a significant increase in demand. PTA inventory continues to decrease, driving the price center of gravity upward. In the second half of the year, with the weakening of cost support for PX’s new production capacity and the risk of domestic and foreign consumption falling short of expectations, prices may fall back and stabilize.