According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of PTA in China will show a “W” trend in 2025. As of December 31, the average market price in East China was 5079 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.04% from the beginning of the year.
It can be divided into four stages:
1、 From the beginning of the year to mid April: fluctuating downward trend
At the beginning of the year, the price fluctuated around 4900 yuan/ton. After a brief rebound in March, there was a significant decline in April, dropping to a low of around 4300 yuan/ton for the whole year, with a decline of more than 10%. This was mainly affected by fluctuations in raw materials and weak downstream polyester demand.
2、 Late April to June: Rapid rebound
After a low price, the price began to rebound strongly, rebounding to a high of over 5200 yuan in just two months, with an increase of more than 20%. During this period, the rise in raw material PX prices, PTA plant maintenance leading to supply contraction, coupled with downstream demand for resumption of work and replenishment of inventory, jointly promoted the price rebound.
3、 July to October: Second decline
After rebounding, the price entered a downward channel again, continuously fluctuating and falling from July to October. The center of gravity of crude oil prices continued to shift downwards, and the demand side was affected by the prolonged duration of high temperatures, resulting in a slower start-up time. Downstream polyester production rates declined, PTA spot demand was weak, and the market supply and demand pattern weakened.
4、 From November to the end of the year: Strong upward trend at the end of the year
After hitting bottom in October, the price experienced a significant rebound at the end of the year and continued to rise since November, reaching over 5100 yuan at the end of the year with an increase of over 10%. This round of price increase is mainly due to the support of PX raw material costs, the elimination of PTA social inventory, and the increase in downstream polyester enterprise stocking demand at the end of the year. The recovery of market sentiment has driven prices to rise rapidly.
Overall, the core drivers of PTA price fluctuations in 2025 are raw material costs, supply changes caused by equipment maintenance, and seasonal fluctuations in downstream polyester and textile demand.
From the price trend in the past three years, the price in 2025 will mainly fluctuate in the range of 4500-5000 yuan/ton, and overall remain at a low level.
Looking ahead to 2026:
In terms of production capacity, by the end of 2025, the total PTA production capacity will reach 94.715 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 10%. In terms of production, the expected domestic PTA production in 2025 is 73.9 million tons, an increase of 2.1 million tons compared to 2024, with a production growth rate of 2.9%, lower than the capacity growth rate. Affected by low processing fees, there has been an increase in factory maintenance and load reduction, resulting in a decline in PTA capacity utilization rate to around 78% by 2025. There is a phenomenon of opening new production capacity and stopping old production capacity, so although the production growth rate is high, the actual supply increment of PTA is relatively limited.
At present, there is no new production capacity for PTA in 2026, and the long-term plan is difficult to implement within the year. The 7-year production period is expected to end. The industry is still in a cycle of overcapacity, and low processing fees are forcing supply contraction and supply-demand balance. Processing fees are expected to recover.

rom the perspective of export volume, it is expected that the total export volume of PTA in 2025 will be 3.85 million tons, a decrease of about 500000 tons compared to 2024. PTA export growth is subject to certain bottlenecks, mainly affected by India’s BIS certification policy and the production of local PTA devices in Türkiye. Previously, due to restrictions on BIS certification in India, China’s PTA exports to India decreased by 370000 tons year-on-year from January to October 2025. However, on November 12th, India announced the immediate revocation of BIS certification for PTA products, giving Chinese PTA producers the opportunity to re-enter the Indian market and quickly repair exports. The PTA export volume for the month was 358900 tons, an increase of 61.26% compared to the previous month, and it is expected that domestic PTA exports may improve significantly in the short term.
In terms of cost, in 2025, under the dominance of loose supply and demand and the disturbance of geopolitical events, the overall performance of the crude oil market is relatively sluggish, and international oil prices are showing a fluctuating downward trend. WTI crude oil fell by about 18% throughout the year, while Brent crude oil fell by about 17% throughout the year. The external environment of crude oil in 2026 is still quite complex, with intricate geopolitical situations and constant conflicts, which will have a direct impact on oil prices from time to time and cause fluctuations in the crude oil market. The supply-demand game still dominates, and the oversupply will continue until the first half of 2026. OPEC+may restart production cuts, but the effect is limited, and prices are likely to continue to decline.
In 2025, domestic PX prices will experience a wide range of fluctuations. As of December 31, the PX market price was 7500 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.51% from the beginning of the year. PX’s overseas new production capacity has been released, causing pressure from oversupply and weak price adjustments, resulting in a low point for the year in the second quarter. With the concentrated maintenance of Asian facilities, supply contraction supported the rebound after hitting bottom in the fourth quarter. In addition, the PTA industry has overcapacity and low processing fees, and is cautious about PX procurement, which suppresses the upward space of PX prices. In the fourth quarter, PTA processing fees began to recover, so the marginal demand for PX has improved.
Starting from 2024, with the deep adjustment of the national industrial structure and the continuous optimization of the market pattern, the PX industry has entered a period of capacity expansion platform. From the perspective of supply expectations, there will be no new PX production capacity in China by 2025. After excluding long-term shutdown capacity, the total PX production capacity will be 43.44 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of -0.5%. In terms of production, the expected domestic PX production in 2025 is 38.4 million tons, an increase of 700000 tons compared to 2024, with a production growth rate of 1.9%. By 2025, the domestic capacity utilization rate of PX will further increase to 88.4%, and currently the capacity utilization rate of the PX industry has reached its highest level in recent years. At the same time, the new facilities planned to be put into operation in 2026 are generally concentrated in the second half of the year, and there is a risk of delay, and the space for increasing stock supply is also relatively limited. Under the guidance of the “anti internal competition” policy, supply side contraction may become the norm, further optimizing the industrial pattern. The bullish sentiment in the market is heating up, and PX prices may continue to operate strongly.

In terms of demand, the overall trend of prices for various categories of polyester in China in 2025 is relatively consistent, with a significant shift in focus compared to the beginning of the year. Among them, polyester POY decreased by 5.93%, polyester DTY decreased by 6.25%, polyester FDY decreased by 8.69%, and polyester staple fiber decreased by 8.69%.
After the Spring Festival, downstream weaving resumption did not meet expectations, resulting in a shortage of terminal orders. Polyester enterprises quickly accumulated inventory and took the initiative to lower prices to reduce inventory. Prices quickly fell from high levels in January to March and hit the lowest point of the first round of the year in mid to late March. From April to June, there was a phase of rebound and repair, with June reaching the mid year rebound high point. Upstream PX and PTA prices stabilized and rebounded, providing cost support. Coupled with the phased replenishment of overseas orders, downstream weaving operating rates rebounded, driving polyester procurement demand. After July, prices entered a volatile downward channel again, and the recovery of domestic and foreign demand for terminal textiles and clothing was weak. The peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” fell through, coupled with the continuous release of production capacity in the polyester industry, the supply-demand contradiction intensified, and prices were under pressure.
Polyester production capacity will continue to expand in 2025, but the growth rate of production capacity will slow down compared to the previous two years. By 2025, a total of 4.45 million tons of polyester production capacity will be added (excluding obsolete production capacity), and the total production capacity will reach 89.84 million tons by the end of the year, with a production capacity growth rate of 5.21%. In terms of production, the cumulative production of polyester in 2025 is expected to be 79.44 million tons, an increase of 5.01 million tons compared to 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.7%. By 2025, the overall capacity utilization rate of the polyester industry will be around 86%, which is at a relatively high level in recent years and provides rigid demand support for PTA.
From the perspective of 2026, the polyester industry will continue to have new production capacity entering, with a production plan of 4.1 million tons. It is expected that the polyester production capacity will reach around 93.94 million tons by the end of 2026, with a capacity growth rate of 4.6%. Overall, it will slow down compared to 2025. Among them, the planned production of polyester filament is 2 million tons, and the total production capacity is expected to reach 57.2 million tons by 2026, with a capacity growth rate of 3.6%. The planned production of 900000 tons of polyester staple fiber is expected to reach a total capacity of 10.79 million tons by 2026, with a capacity growth rate of 9%. The planned production of polyester bottle flakes is 700000 tons, and the total production capacity is expected to reach 22.63 million tons by 2026, with a capacity growth rate of 3.2%. The remaining newly added production capacity is for recycled new materials.
The growth rate of polyester production capacity in China has slowed down, and factories are actively expanding overseas channels due to overcapacity. Investment enthusiasm is rising in Southeast Asia, Egypt and other places, and polyester exports will continue to maintain high growth of about 14.58 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%. Among them, the export performance of polyester staple fiber is particularly outstanding, with an expected export of 1.7 million tons, an increase of 400000 tons compared to last year, with a growth rate of 30%. Next is the expected export of 4.25 million tons of polyester filament, an increase of about 370000 tons compared to last year, with a growth rate of 10.7%. The high growth rate of polyester exports has become an important digestion pathway for new production. Driven by factors such as domestic production capacity, cost and profit advantages, overseas demand expansion, favorable trade policies, and global enterprise layout, export demand will continue to grow in 2026.

As the terminal of PTA, the demand for textiles and clothing has shown a steady and low-speed growth trend both domestically and internationally. From the perspective of weaving, the average operating rate of weaving machines in 2025 is 63%, which is a decline compared to 2024.
The growth rate of domestic demand for textiles and clothing in China has remained stable. From January to November, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, textiles, and knitwear by enterprises above designated size reached 135.967 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%.
In terms of exports, from January to November, China’s textile and clothing exports totaled 267.8 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%. Among them, the export value of textiles was 130.01 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, continuing to maintain a steady growth trend; The export value of clothing was 137.79 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, and the decline rate has expanded. In 2026, with the “15th Five Year Plan” clearly stating that expanding domestic demand will be the strategic basis, coupled with continuous policy catalysis, the overall textile and service industry is expected to gradually recover. However, the degree of recovery is affected by multiple factors, such as geopolitical uncertainty, fluctuations in raw material prices, and rising labor costs.
In summary, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that there will be no new production capacity for PX in the first half of 2026, and centralized maintenance in the second quarter will widen the supply-demand gap, providing favorable cost support for PTA. PTA has zero new production capacity, and the industry has entered a vacuum period of production. Low processing fees have forced outdated production capacity to be cleared, reducing supply pressure. Downstream polyester, especially in India where BIS certification has been cancelled and export channels have resumed, has seen a significant increase in demand. PTA inventory continues to decrease, driving the price center of gravity upward. In the second half of the year, with the weakening of cost support for PX’s new production capacity and the risk of domestic and foreign consumption falling short of expectations, prices may fall back and stabilize.

During the New Year, the domestic acrylic nitrile market preferential negotiations, as of January 4, acrylic nitrile mainstream average price of 7450 yuan / ton, compared to the pre-festival slightly decreased. The factory maintained a high start, downstream resistance is obvious, the market as a whole is still in a strong and weak state of supply and demand.
Market Analysis for New Year:
Acrylic nitrile price rise and fall trend before and after New Year 2023-2026
Looking back at the past three years, acrylic nitrile market trend increased and decreased during the New Year, although the price on the first day after the festival has not changed, but the week after the festival overall showed an increase in the market. The reason for the increase in the market is mainly because the manufacturers are willing to increase prices, acrylic nitrile factory in the fourth quarter began to reduce production control, overlay costs increased, the spot market synchronously increased.
But this year during the New Year holiday acrylic nitrile prices negotiate favorable, the market is mainly low adjustment. The reason is that although individual factories have been repaired, but the overall start-up is still high, supply pressure increases, and the acrylic nitrile market is weak downward, downstream stock sentiment is more cautious.
Subsequent fundamental changes:
On the supply side, the Haijiang device is still in a state of maintenance in January, and the acrylic nitrile industry began to decline, but the current acrylic nitrile plant stock pressure remains, so the acrylic nitrile supply pressure relief in January is limited.
On the demand side, acrylic side, the overall start of work this month may have increased, but still need to pay attention to the change in the situation of Giga equipment, the demand is still good. On the ABS side, considering the theoretical loss situation of petrochemical manufacturers, and Zhejiang petrochemical and other equipment storage and maintenance operations, some circulating goods source partially tight pattern or continued, mid-to-late, accompanied by the approaching Spring Festival, do not exclude some downstream consecutive holiday preparations, and Jilin petrochemical and other new equipment continue to release quantities, superimposing the preliminary partial maintenance equipment storage may be restarted, the overall demand or storage may increase slightly.
Trend forecast: In the short term, the acrylic nitrile market is weak and stable, low shock trend. Early supply continues to be loose, downstream just need to procure, price is under pressure. Mid-to-late or due to some equipment repair / download, inventory de-stabilization, prices gradually stabilize, rebound space is limited by demand and cost. January is approaching the Spring Festival, some enterprise capital return cage demand increases, or low price shipping, forming short-term suppression of prices.

In 2025, EVA production capacity will expand, demand will remain stable but weak, and prices will fluctuate widely before falling
In 2025, domestic EVA production capacity will continue to expand and supply will be abundant
In 2025, the domestic EVA production capacity will continue to be invested, and the total production capacity will reach 3.8 million tons per year by the end of the year. Overall, in 2025, there will be a relative surplus of EVA general materials and a tight supply of photovoltaic grade materials (VA ≥ 28%).
The demand for EVA market in 2025 shows a trend of strong at the beginning and weak at the end
The demand for EVA throughout 2025 is significantly fluctuating due to factors such as policy rumors, overseas trade, and downstream construction
As the largest demand area for EVA, the photovoltaic industry will consume about 50% -60% of EVA in China by 2025, and its demand will be significantly affected by policy expectations. Photovoltaic demand is the core driving force of the EVA industry. From January to October 2025, the installed capacity of photovoltaic in China will reach 252.87GW, a year-on-year increase of 39.5%. Among them, the newly installed capacity from January to May was 198GW, a year-on-year increase of 150%, which significantly boosted the EVA market in the first half of the year.
The application of EVA foam materials in the fields of shoe materials, packaging, etc. supports its demand, among which the shoe materials field is the largest segmented market. In 2025, the traditional demand for EVA shoe materials will be weak, and the proportion of high-end shoe material applications will increase. In addition, the demand for EVA in emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and 3D printing is growing rapidly, but the base is relatively small, and its direct impact on foam EVA is limited. In 2025, the demand for coating, agricultural film, and packaging will be relatively low, with stable performance.
The cost support of EVA in 2025 is relatively strong in the early stage and weak in the later stage
In 2025, the price of EVA raw material ethylene fluctuated and decreased, while the price of raw material vinyl acetate fluctuated widely. In the first quarter, the high price of ethylene and the rise in the price of vinyl acetate provided strong cost support for EVA; In the second quarter, the prices of raw materials ethylene and vinyl acetate weakened, and the cost support for EVA weakened; In the third quarter, ethylene prices continued to decline, while vinyl acetate prices fell after a short-term increase, and EVA cost support continued to weaken; In the fourth quarter, the price of ethylene decreased and the price of vinyl acetate increased, which provided some support for the cost of EVA.
In 2025, the EVA market showed a wide range of fluctuations in the early stage and a weak downward trend at the end of the year
EVA prices will show a fluctuating downward trend in 2025. After the Spring Festival from January to March, raw material prices will rise, downstream foam production will increase, there will be a surge in photovoltaic installation, and EVA enterprise equipment maintenance inventory will be low. EVA prices will significantly increase to the highest point of 11566 yuan/ton this year; From April to July, the traditional off-season for downstream foaming and the end of photovoltaic installation rush led to a high decline in raw material prices in the early stage. In addition, with the addition of new production capacity, EVA prices continued to fall; From early August to early September, photovoltaic destocking and raw material support for EVA slightly rebounded to 11400 yuan/ton; From October to December, under the pressure of oversupply of photovoltaic materials, increased production capacity, and high operating pressure, the price of EVA fell back to 9766 yuan/ton. ‌

In 2026, EVA will show a trend of increasing oversupply and fluctuating prices at low levels
In 2026, EVA will increase its production capacity by approximately 1.69 million tons per year, with an excess of general materials and a tight structural demand for photovoltaic grade materials. The expected increase in domestic EVA production capacity by 2026 is about 1.69 million tons per year, concentrated in East China, Northwest China, and South China, mainly in photovoltaic/foam grade.
In 2026, EVA will be mainly supported by domestic demand and export demand
The demand for photovoltaics will still dominate in 2026, but the growth rate may narrow. Under the current policies and high base background, there is significant year-on-year pressure on new installed capacity in the first half of 2026, and there is a high probability that the domestic installed capacity in 2026 will experience its first negative growth in recent years. However, against the backdrop of the continuous promotion of the “anti internal competition” on the supply side and the gradual clarification of the operating rules of the electricity market, the exploration and development of new models such as green power direct connection, source grid load storage, and green power parks are still expected to provide certain support for domestic market demand.
Although the demand for foam EVA is relatively weak in 2025, the long-term potential comes from the expansion of high-end shoe material upgrades, healthy living, new energy vehicle interiors, packaging, and other fields. The industry develops high-performance products through technological upgrades, such as EVA for photovoltaic films with better weather resistance, indirectly supporting overall demand.
Although EVA will still maintain a net import trend in 2025, with 643800 tons of EVA imported and 279200 tons of EVA exported from January to November 2025. However, in recent years, the domestic EVA market has shown a continuous decline in imports and continuous growth in exports. In 2026, it will be supported by the procurement of photovoltaic module factories in Southeast Asia and India, which will continue to increase domestic EVA exports.
The cost of EVA in 2026 may show a stable state before and then a weak state
On the one hand, there are still plans to increase domestic production capacity for raw material ethylene. Data shows that the 1.2 million tons/year Phase II ethylene project of Dushanzi Petrochemical in Xinjiang is scheduled to start production in September 2026; In the future, new vinyl acetate production facilities will be concentrated in 2027-2028, and overall, the supply of EVA raw materials is in a relaxed state. On the other hand, crude oil prices are generally at a low level due to the risk of international economic downturn. Overall, the cost center of EVA affected by raw material fluctuations in 2026 has shifted downwards compared to 2025.
Overall, it is expected that EVA prices will remain stable in the early stages of 2026, with a weak performance in the middle of the year and a slight rebound at the end of the year. The price of foam EVA will fluctuate within the range of 9800-11500 yuan/ton, and the price of photovoltaic EVA will fluctuate greatly due to policy disturbances.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, zinc prices will show a trend of first suppressing and then rising in 2025, with a price of 25846 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 23276 yuan/ton at the end of the year. Overall, zinc prices will fall by 9.94% in 2025.
In 2025, the overall zinc market will show a significant trend of “first suppression and then rebound”. In the first three quarters, due to the dual impact of unexpected supply growth and the continued escalation of trade frictions between China and the United States, zinc prices continued to decline and hit the lowest level of the year; In the fourth quarter, there was a divergence in the trends of domestic and foreign markets, with the accelerated release of new smelting capacity in China. The price of zinc in Shanghai fell into a low range of fluctuations, and there was a trend of price correction at the end of the year. In the context of increased supply and differentiated demand structure in 2026, zinc prices are expected to be under overall pressure and maintain range fluctuations.
1、 Current situation of zinc supply side and expectations for 2026
The supply of zinc ore from overseas mines has increased, but smelters are showing a trend of reducing production. On the other hand, in China, the smelting production has achieved a significant increase, which has led to a change in the global supply pattern of zinc elements, gradually converging and concentrating in China.
Global zinc ore production by 2025
The mining increment in 2026 will be concentrated in five major projects:
1. The five main mines
Ozernoye、Kipushi、 The five major projects of Huoshaoyun, Tizapa, and Lady Loretta will collectively increase production by 260000 tons in 2026, accounting for 68% of the global mining increment.
2. Concentrated regional distribution
The newly added production capacity is concentrated in Russia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, China, Mexico, and Australia, with dispersed geographical distribution but controllable production pace.
3. Strong cost competitiveness
The cash cost of newly invested mines is generally below $2000/ton, which has strong market competitiveness and supports long-term stable supply
4. High front and low back trend
The increment of mines is mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, with a slowdown in growth rate in the second half, forming a “high in the front and low in the back” supply rhythm.
Analysis of Zinc Smelting in 2026
It is estimated that China’s smelting capacity will increase from 7 million tons to 7.3 million tons, and 250000 tons will be added overseas (secondary zinc from South Korea, India and Türkiye). The potential export elasticity will reach 300000 tons.
2、 Current situation of zinc demand and expectations for 2026
Galvanizing accounts for 54% of global zinc demand and is a core part of consumption. As a fundamental support, it is widely used in the fields of construction and infrastructure.
Zinc used in construction accounts for 58%
Accounting for 58% of downstream zinc applications, but limited growth due to the sluggish real estate market. The slowdown of urbanization has weakened the demand for zinc in the traditional construction industry.
Automotive demand accounts for 18%
The automotive industry has a stable demand for galvanized steel plates and strong resistance to cycles. The development of new energy vehicles has driven a slight increase in the amount of galvanized structural components.
Photovoltaic drive increases to 5%
The large-scale construction of photovoltaic brackets is driving new demand for galvanized zinc materials. It is expected that there will be an additional demand for 120000 tons of zinc in 2026, becoming a key growth point.
It is expected that by 2026, the drag on demand for zinc in the infrastructure and real estate sectors may slow down, while the automotive sector in the transportation sector is expected to maintain a high momentum. Overall, it is expected that the growth rate of zinc demand will remain weak in 2026, but the resilience of domestic terminal demand is stronger than that of overseas markets.

3、 Inventory analysis
As of December 2025, the global explicit inventory of zinc is approximately 153800 tons, and the absolute value of inventory is at a seasonal low level in the past five years. The cumulative destocking amount for the whole year of 2025 is about 110000 tons. Against the backdrop of oversupply expectations on the supply side, the low inventory situation and the trend of continuous inventory reduction have provided solid support for zinc prices.
summary
In 2026, the zinc trade pattern is undergoing a profound evolution, gradually moving from the previous one-way import dependence model to a new stage of development in which domestic and foreign markets are mutually linked and interdependent. In this process, the international environmental situation, changes in regional supply and demand dynamics, and policy adjustments have all become key variables affecting the evolution of the pattern.
Overall analysis shows that by 2026, the global zinc ingot market is likely to be in a tightly balanced state. Among them, the surplus of refined zinc in the Chinese market is expected to further alleviate, while the global supply of zinc ore may still remain tight. In such a market environment, due to the support provided by mining costs and the bottoming out effect of structural demand, zinc prices will demonstrate strong resilience. It is expected that the zinc price center for the whole year will remain roughly the same as t

his year’s level, and the main contract price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 21000-25000 yuan/ton.

On December 30th, the average market price in East China was 322160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.23% from the previous trading day. The mainstream price range for 1 # tin ingots in the domestic spot tin market is 321500-323000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 322000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21400 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
Affected by the weakened sentiment of the night market commodity market, the price of Shanghai tin plummeted significantly. However, the decline today narrowed compared to the previous period, and the main contract ultimately closed down 4.68%, at 326330 yuan/ton.
Previously, the prices of precious metals and copper continued to rise and repeatedly broke new highs. Under the effect of capital spillover, the tight supply and demand situation of Shanghai tin attracted the attention of funds, and its price reached the highest level of 350000 yuan. However, downstream market demand remains weak, with limited acceptance of current prices. Coupled with the accelerating pace of Myanmar’s resumption of production, the marginal fundamentals are gradually showing signs of weakening, causing Shanghai tin prices to fall from their high levels.
Recently, tin prices have continued to fluctuate within the high range, and the trading atmosphere in the market appears quite quiet. Traders generally adopt a cautious and wait-and-see attitude, and their enthusiasm for quoting has significantly decreased, mainly due to the current relatively high tin prices and weak willingness of downstream enterprises to receive goods. Most end users choose to stay put and wait, only releasing a small number of orders based on rigid demand when prices experience a pullback.
In terms of follow-up, the supply of small brand goods shows a trend of around 400 yuan/ton with a flat to rising price for the January contract; The cloud prefix source of goods has a premium of around 400-700 yuan/ton for the January contract; Yunxi’s source of goods offers a premium of around 700-1000 yuan/ton for the January contract.