From October 16th to 23rd, the domestic BDO price increased from 10316 yuan/ton to 10338 yuan/ton, with a price cycle increase of 0.21%, a month on month increase of 8.64%, and a year-on-year increase of 38.48%.
The domestic BDO market has been consolidating at a high level and is currently in a period of transition between the old and new cycles. The fundamental news is chaotic, and the market is mainly characterized by a wait-and-see attitude. Downstream contract orders are being followed up, spot negotiations are light, supply and demand negotiations are in a game, and the market is temporarily stable.
In terms of supply and equipment, Guotai’s set of displacement agents continues to extend the operation of oil reduction, resulting in a slight reduction in the supply of goods. Some factories have released news of price reductions or maintenance in November, with bids being made at a premium, continuing the supplier’s market support mentality. The supply side of BDO is affected by favorable factors.
On the cost side, in terms of calcium carbide, the price of calcium carbide has declined, and the orderly use of electricity in Inner Mongolia has weakened, resulting in an increase in calcium carbide supply. Downstream maintenance is concentrated, and demand support is weak. Supply exceeds demand pattern, with sufficient market supply and downstream waiting for unloading growth. In terms of methanol, the price of methanol continues to be strong. The downward trend in the raw material calcium carbide market and the high volatility in the methanol market have had a mixed impact on the BDO cost aspect.
On the demand side and downstream side, the utilization rate of PTMEG production capacity, which is the main downstream force, has recently declined, resulting in a reduction in the amount of raw material digestion. At the same time, the overall trend of raw materials has declined, and cost support has weakened; Many downstream industries are in a loss making state, and cost transmission is not smooth. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
Market forecast shows an increase in supply while demand decreases, leading to increased pressure on supply and demand. At the same time, the cost support has weakened, and industry players have a strong cautious bearish sentiment towards the future. Overall, analysts predict that the BDO market will mainly consolidate.

This week, the domestic market price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid remained stable. As of October 22nd, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 16400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.
On the raw material side: The price of raw fluorite has slightly fallen from its previous high, and the price of sulfuric acid has also loosened, resulting in a marginal weakening of cost support. Although sulfuric acid still accounts for a high proportion of the cost of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride, the overall upward driving force of prices on the raw material side is not as strong as before the holiday. As of October 22nd, the benchmark price of fluorite was 3681.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.67% compared to the beginning of this month (3706.25 yuan/ton).
Supply side: The industry’s operating rate remains above 70%, and there has been no substantial reversal in the short-term oversupply pattern. However, regional differentiation is evident, and the actual quantity of goods sold is limited. The tight supply of local goods in Jiangxi and Fujian is the direct cause of regional price hikes.
Demand side: Refrigerants are still the largest downstream, but only about 40% of mainstream R32 manufacturers are operating. R22 has entered the seasonal off-season, and the market is mainly focused on digesting inventory. The refrigerant sector maintains a rigid demand rhythm for purchasing anhydrous hydrogen fluoride, with no significant short-term incremental plans. The demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate, electronic grade hydrofluoric acid, and other fields is also limited.
Market forecast: Analysts predict that the price of fluorite on the raw material side will slightly decline, and the support for hydrofluoric acid on the cost side will weaken. The short-term oversupply situation is still difficult to solve, and there is still an expectation of a decline on the demand side in the later stage. The upward space for prices under the supply-demand game is limited. It is expected that the short-term domestic market for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid will be dominated by narrow consolidation. More attention should be paid to the raw material end and the implementation of downstream refrigerant enterprise maintenance.

The core characteristics of the domestic sulfur market this week can be summarized as “emotional collapse, cliff like decline, and resonance formed by negative feedback from both internal and external markets
1、 Market Direct Strike: Price Cliff like Diving
1. Sharp decline: On October 13th, the benchmark price was still at 7179 yuan/ton, but on October 19th, it dropped directly to 6076.75 yuan/ton. The weekly decline exceeded 1100 yuan/ton. Especially on October 15th (a daily drop of 6.94%) and October 19th (a daily drop of 8.65%), there were two panic selling incidents.
As of October 20th, the benchmark price of sulfur was 6076.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.93% compared to the beginning of this month (7685.67 yuan/ton). In half a month, the market value has dropped by more than one-fifth.
3. Sudden decline in position: The table shows that on October 13th, the one-year position was still in the “middle” range. After only one week, on October 19th, the one-year position dropped directly to the “middle low” range, and all short – and medium-term positions such as 10 days, 20 days, and 30 days fell to the “low” range.
In depth analysis: Why did the domestic market fall so badly this week?
The collapse of the domestic market this week is the result of the dual impact of international cost collapse and the freezing point of domestic demand:
1. The cost support of international stocks collapsed, and this week, the official prices in the Middle East (Qatar 835, Kuwait 820) and spot prices (CFR China 860-880) were significantly lowered across the board. The shift from “raising prices” to “lowering prices for shipments” in foreign markets has directly drained the confidence of domestic port traders in raising prices.
On the demand side, there is a “quiet trading” and negative feedback erupts. The operating rate of downstream phosphate fertilizers (monoammonium and diammonium) has dropped to a low of over 40%, and the company’s profits have suffered severe losses (theoretical losses exceeding 1000 yuan). Faced with high priced raw materials, downstream customers choose to “lie flat” and refuse to accept goods, leading to a collapse of the mentality of the holders and a stampede style price reduction and dumping of goods.
4、 Outlook for the future: “Game and Bottom Search” after the sharp decline
Although the market has been extremely volatile this week, the current market is entering a new phase of competition:
1. There is still downward momentum in the short term: the market is extremely weak, the moving average system has not been repaired, external downward pressure is still being transmitted, and high-level inventory still needs to be digested.
2. However, the “resistance style” bottoming out is about to emerge: currently, prices have fallen to the “low” range, and low-end transactions in some regions of China (such as Shandong) have begun to improve. Some businesses believe that the low level is expected to consolidate upwards. With the gradual start of domestic phosphate fertilizer winter storage and demand at the end of October, coupled with the long-term low inventory background caused by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, it is highly likely that prices will face a situation of “intensified long short divergence, low-level oscillation and bottoming out” after a sharp decline.
In summary, this week’s domestic sulfur was hit hard by both external price reductions and downstream non buying, with a 20% evaporation in a week being an emotional release; Now that the price has fallen into the low zone, although the overall trend is still downward, the most panicked period of sharp decline may be coming to an end, and the market will enter a period of differentiation and bottoming out, with low-end trial buying and high-level replenishment.

1、 Price trend
As of October 16th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 6366 yuan/ton. Today, the structural differentiation of precipitated white carbon black in China continues, and the general rubber grade supply is sufficient, resulting in a narrow and weak price fluctuation; High dispersion tire specific white carbon black and gas-phase white carbon black remain strong, with brand price differences continuing to widen. General purpose precipitated white carbon black mainstream factory price ranges from 6350-6420 yuan/ton, and on-site transactions are mainly based on long-term contracts for essential needs. Traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude and low willingness to speculate and stock up.
2、 Market analysis
Operating rate: The overall operating rate of the industry remains at a medium to high level, with stable operation of top factories and operating rates ranging from 75% to 82%; Small and medium-sized manufacturers can flexibly adjust the load according to orders, and the load of general grade production lines has been reduced, giving priority to ensuring high dispersion tire grade orders. The overall inventory shows differentiation, with ordinary precipitated white carbon black enterprises having high inventory and significant pressure to reduce inventory; High end modified and gas-phase white carbon black have low inventory and tight delivery cycles. There is currently no large-scale centralized maintenance plan in the short term, and the overall supply side is abundant.
Upstream costs: The supply of sodium silicate (sodium silicate), the core raw material for precipitated white carbon black, is sufficient, and the price is stable but slightly weak. There is significant pressure on the shipment of raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market fluctuates within a certain range, with slight fluctuations within the region and no obvious unilateral market trend. The prices of soda ash and quartz sand are stable. The cost of steam and industrial electricity remains stable. Overall, the support of upstream raw material costs is weak, and the cost pressure on production enterprises is not significant, but there is a lack of cost drivers to increase prices.
Downstream demand: There is a clear differentiation in the strength of downstream demand. In the tire industry, traditional replacement tire production is average, and finished product inventory is high. Tire companies have a strong willingness to control costs, and procurement remains on-demand. The formula for new energy green tires continues to promote the use of white carbon black instead of carbon black, and high dispersion brand long-term contract orders remain stable, forming strong support. The weak demand for shoe-making and ordinary rubber miscellaneous parts, insufficient orders from product companies, and reduced procurement to lower prices have dragged down the general white carbon black market. The demand for special white carbon black in the fields of silicone rubber, coating extinction, and daily chemical products is still acceptable. The orders for gas-phase white carbon black are stable, but the overall downstream cost transmission is not smooth. The enthusiasm for purchasing ordinary grades is insufficient.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that in the short term, the market for white carbon black will continue to diverge, with general precipitation grades operating weakly and steadily, limited room for price fluctuations, and high dispersion tire grade and gas-phase white carbon black remaining strong. In terms of negative factors, general white carbon black has overcapacity, and traditional rubber product demand is unlikely to have a significant rebound. Inventory pressure continues to suppress prices, and downstream tire companies maintain low inventory procurement, making it difficult for centralized replenishment to occur. On the positive side, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase, and green tires drive the long-term increase of high-end white carbon black. If the industry focuses on maintenance in the later stage, it is expected to temporarily tighten the supply of high-end brands.

As of October 14th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 10633.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.16% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on October 1st, which was 10016.67 yuan/ton; Compared to January 1st at the beginning of the year, the price of phthalic anhydride increased by 5966.67 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 78.21%. After the holiday, the price of phthalic anhydride rose strongly. In October, phthalic anhydride showed a pattern of supply contraction driven and slight increase, and the price completely reached the 10000 yuan mark; The supply is tight, and downstream demand is weak to keep up. Phthalic anhydride belongs to a structural market of “strong supply, weak demand”, and the sustained upward momentum of phthalic anhydride is questionable.
The cost of raw materials has skyrocketed
The rise in crude oil prices is transmitted downstream, and the core driving force behind the current rise in phthalic anhydride comes from the comprehensive increase in raw material costs. In terms of ortho xylene, prices are showing an accelerating upward trend. On October 9th, the price of ortho benzene was increased by 200 yuan/ton to 9950 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, and on October 12th, it was further increased by 200 yuan/ton to 10150 yuan/ton. The continuous shortage of ortho benzene supply, low inventory in refineries and ports, and strong willingness of holders to raise prices. The significant increase in the cost of neighboring phthalic anhydride has supported the price increase of phthalic anhydride factories.
Tightening of phthalic anhydride supply
The maintenance and parking of the equipment are relatively concentrated. The overall operating rate of the industry has dropped to 52%, with a decrease in the quantity of goods in stock. Manufacturers’ inventories are low, some companies are oversold, and orders are limited. The supply of spot goods has tightened, supporting an increase in quotations.
Insufficient incremental demand for phthalic anhydride
The downstream plasticizer industry is the main consumer area of phthalic anhydride, and the overall plasticizer market has risen this month, providing certain demand support for phthalic anhydride. However, the operating load of plasticizer enterprises has shown a slight downward trend, with downstream demand mainly focused on rigid procurement and phthalic anhydride procurement on demand, resulting in limited incremental demand pull. The decrease in operating load of plasticizer enterprises has weakened the support for phthalic anhydride demand, and the price increase is more driven by the cost side rather than the demand side. The demand for phthalic anhydride is insufficient, and the willingness to chase up phthalic anhydride prices is poor.
Future forecast
Analysts believe that there will be more maintenance and supply tightening of phthalic anhydride equipment after the holiday, but downstream production will decrease and demand for phthalic anhydride will be weak. Phthalic anhydride will fluctuate and rise, but the sustainability of the rise is insufficient. In the future, the short-term phthalic anhydride maintenance equipment has not been fully restarted, and the tight supply pattern continues. Phthalic anhydride prices are mainly fluctuating at high levels, but there is limited room for further significant upward movement. Prices remain firm, and negotiations for discounts on actual orders have increased. Late October: As the maintenance equipment gradually resumes production, the supply increment is released; With the gradual weakening of downstream terminal demand and the easing of tight supply-demand balance, there is a risk of a downward pressure on the price center. Downstream maintenance of essential procurement, it is not recommended to stockpile goods in large quantities at high levels; The trading side is cautious in chasing the rise, focusing on tracking the progress of equipment resumption, DOP start-up, and ortho xylene prices.