From the trend of spot asphalt in Shandong, the market in October showed a typical trend of first suppression and then rebound, with a high-level decline in the early stage and a rebound in the later stage. After a sharp rise in September, the market entered a high-level game stage, with supply and demand, costs, and seasonal demand jointly dominating the price fluctuations in this round.
The downward pressure on asphalt prices in early October was mainly due to the end of the peak season and weak terminal demand. Entering October, the temperature in the north is gradually decreasing, and the window period for road paving is narrowing. The infrastructure and highway projects that were previously focused on rushing to complete are gradually coming to an end; After the continuous rise in prices in September, the high prices suppressed the downstream willingness to purchase goods. Traders generally watched and mainly consumed their own inventory, with weak willingness to actively replenish inventory. Market transactions turned weak, and Shandong asphalt spot prices continued to fall from their high point, forming a wave of correction market. At the same time, some refineries have decent profits in the early stage, with slight increases in shipments and loose supply margins, further driving price corrections and market sentiment leaning towards caution.
In late October, the market bottomed out and rebounded, causing a shift in support logic. Firstly, the sustained low overall inventory level is the most solid support. In the early stage, refineries continued to control production and conduct intermittent maintenance. The factory inventory and social inventory in Shandong region have been at a low level, and there has been no obvious surplus of goods, locking in the space for price decline. With the price falling back to a relatively reasonable range, some traders have started stocking up on dips, laying out winter storage in advance, bringing phased procurement demand, and driving transaction recovery. Secondly, international crude oil continues to fluctuate at a high level, with ongoing cost support and upward fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical factors. The cost of asphalt raw materials remains stable, and refineries have weak willingness to sell at low prices, resulting in firm quotations. In addition, the market’s expectations for subsequent infrastructure policies have increased, boosting bullish sentiment in the market and pushing prices back into an upward channel.
Looking ahead to the future, the asphalt market will enter a seasonal off-season, with mixed long and short factors. The momentum for a unilateral surge is limited, and it is likely to maintain a high and wide range oscillation pattern. On the negative side, the temperature in the north continues to decline, and outdoor road construction is gradually coming to a halt, leading to a further decline in demand; In November, several Shandong refineries have plans to resume and increase production, with an expected increase in asphalt production. The pressure on the supply of goods will gradually be released, suppressing the upward trend. On the positive side, the low inventory pattern is difficult to quickly reverse in the short term, and coupled with the continued pace of winter storage procurement, traders will continue to buy in batches, which will continue to support spot prices. The support of crude oil costs still exists, and there is not much room for price decline.
Downstream construction enterprises should mainly purchase according to their needs and should not hoard goods on a large scale; Traders need to grasp the rhythm of winter storage, layout in batches when there is a pullback, and be alert to the supply impact caused by the concentrated resumption of production by refineries. Overall, the asphalt market has shifted from a unilateral upward trend to a volatile game, with significant increases in market volatility. The focus is on continuously tracking refinery operations, crude oil trends, and winter storage landing rhythms.

As of October 30th, the price of 0 # zinc was 25833 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83% compared to the zinc price of 25618 yuan/ton on October 26th.
fundamentals
The zinc price shows a significant “V” – shaped reversal trend. The zinc price has risen from its low at the beginning of the week and successfully recovered from the 25800 yuan/ton mark. The comprehensive repair of technical indicators, coupled with cost support, has led to a strong rebound in zinc prices in the short term.
The pattern of scarce raw materials on the supply side has not changed. The progress of resuming production in overseas mines is relatively slow, coupled with the fact that some northern mines in China have entered a winter production reduction period, resulting in overall tight supply of zinc concentrate. The smelting end is constrained by the continuous low operation of processing fees (TC), resulting in a significant compression of profit margins. Some smelters have expectations of reduced production due to maintenance, which limits the incremental output of refined zinc. The rigid constraint on the supply side provides a solid underlying logic support for the rapid rise of zinc prices from the bottom this week (such as the low on October 25th).
The demand side has shown a clear resonance between “phased replenishment” and “buying up sentiment” this week. With a single day price increase of 0.84% on October 30th, breaking through the 25800 yuan/ton mark, the speculative demand in the market of “buying up, not buying down” has been stimulated, and trading sentiment has significantly rebounded. However, it should be noted that as zinc prices rise to a high level, downstream processing enterprises are becoming increasingly fearful of high priced raw materials, mainly focusing on essential purchases. The sustained increase in actual terminal consumption remains to be observed.
Comprehensive analysis:
The current zinc price is showing strong performance under the resonance of technical oversold rebound and fundamental low inventory and high cost. But we need to be wary of the marginal weakening of downstream willingness to receive goods and the disturbance of macro sentiment after the price quickly rises to a high level. It is expected that zinc prices will maintain strong fluctuations next week.

From October 8th to 29th, the domestic toluene market first rose and then fell, fluctuating within a certain range. On October 8th at the beginning of the month, the average market price was 8706.67 yuan/ton, and on October 29th at the end of the month, the average price was 8783.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.88% for the whole month, with limited overall fluctuation.
During the cycle, international crude oil prices have risen in stages, driving the strong night market for aromatic hydrocarbons. Petrochemical companies and traders holding goods have a positive attitude towards trading, indicating an intention to push up prices. However, downstream profits continue to be weak, and terminal factories and traders are more cautious about receiving goods from high-level sources. On site transactions are mainly based on small orders for essential needs, and there is a scarcity of concentrated inventory replenishment. As the end of the month approaches, the centralized delivery of paper goods that supported the port premium is gradually coming to an end. The premium support brought by contracts is fading, and the rational decline of port spot premiums has led to a pressure drop after the market surged. This cycle, the toluene market presents a pattern of cost expectation bottoming out, continuous demand constraint, and end of month paper goods disturbance. The long short game is deadlocked, and it is difficult to break out of a unilateral trend market.
Cost aspect:
The cost side of toluene follows the linkage operation of crude oil and naphtha, and the trend of crude oil is the core guidance of the current market. Within the monitoring range, crude oil showed a pulse like upward trend, driving up the price of naphtha. The aromatic hydrocarbon sector also strengthened in sync, providing support for the spot price of toluene in terms of cost expectations. This was also the main basis for the price increase of holders at the beginning of the month. However, the sustained rise in crude oil prices is not strong, and after the rise, it quickly turns into volatility, with significant fluctuations in cost support. During the oil price correction phase, the aromatic hydrocarbon market weakened, leading to a rapid cooling of market sentiment and pressure on spot prices. This was also an important factor in the month end price drop. The intermittent manifestation of cost support can only bring temporary boost, and it is difficult to drive the continuous upward trend of toluene prices. As of October 28th, the settlement price of the December contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $102.78 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January contract is $111.64 per barrel.
Supply side:
The overall operation of domestic toluene refining plants is stable, with few centralized maintenance, and the industry’s operating load remains stable. The production of domestic commodity toluene has not changed much. The external cargo has arrived at the port as planned, and the supply of goods from the main ports in East China is orderly. The overall spot supply is sufficient, and there is no obvious shortage of goods. During the cycle, paper goods trading was active, with contract buying orders concentrated in the market before delivery, temporarily pushing up the port spot premium and helping to boost the market at the beginning of the month; The delivery of paper goods at the end of the month has been completed one after another, and contract buying orders have left. The additional benefits brought by funds have faded, and the port premium has gradually returned to a reasonable range, weakening the positive support. The port inventory remains at a neutral level without a continuous trend of destocking, making it difficult for the supply side to form sustained positive support.

Demand side:
The PX market has been fluctuating in this cycle, with average profit transmission between the PX and PTA industry chains, insufficient follow-up of downstream polyester orders, and limited upward space for PX prices. The processing income of the disproportionation device fluctuates with the market, and the processing price difference is still acceptable. The enterprise maintains normal feeding; When the price difference narrows, the pace of toluene procurement slows down, with on-demand procurement being the main focus, and the procurement volume does not continue to increase. The PX market trend follows the fluctuations of the polyester end, and the market lacks sustained upward momentum, which has limited driving effect on toluene procurement.
Except for the production of PX through disproportionation, the downstream of toluene includes solvents TDI、 The profitability of downstream industries such as benzoic acid and nitrotoluene is generally under pressure, and the continuous increase in raw material prices is squeezing the profits of finished products. Many facilities are in a low profit or even loss making state. Affected by profitability, downstream enterprises have low purchasing enthusiasm and generally adopt a strategy of purchasing as needed. They lack the willingness to actively replenish inventory and have obvious resistance to high-level sources of goods. The market inquiry atmosphere is flat. Although the continuous existence of rigid demand transactions provides a certain bottom line for prices and limits the deep decline of the market, the lack of incremental order driving makes it difficult to sustain price increases, resulting in a market with temporary prices but no market.
Market forecast:
The fluctuation of crude oil prices is highly uncertain, and the cost support of toluene will continue to fluctuate. On the supply side, there is currently no large-scale maintenance plan for domestic refineries, and the supply of goods from ports to ships is stable. The spot supply remains loose, making it difficult for the supply side to have strong profits to release. On the demand side, the pace of repairing the PX and polyester industry chains is slow, and there is limited room for improvement in the price difference of disproportionation processing; Downstream profits such as solvents and TDI are unlikely to show significant improvement in the short term, and the cautious attitude of buying goods at high prices is difficult to change in the short term, resulting in weak expectations for incremental demand. Based on comprehensive fundamental analysis, the stalemate between long and short positions in the toluene market continues, with phased cost support and weak demand suppression coexisting. It is expected that the toluene market will maintain a high volatility trend, with limited upward space. At the same time, the cost support brought by crude oil will also limit the deep pullback. Focus on the trend of crude oil, changes in port inventory, PX market, operation of disproportionation units, and other downstream profit and operating load changes in the future.

The price of acetic anhydride increased narrowly in October. As of October 28th, the price of acetic anhydride was 7240 yuan/ton, an increase of 57.50 yuan/ton or 0.80% from the price of 7182.50 yuan/ton on October 1st.
The acetic anhydride market was consolidating at a high level in October. After the National Day holiday, downstream restocking is concentrated, enterprise inventory is reduced, and the price trend of acetic anhydride is strong and rising; In the second half of the year, although the price of raw material acetic acid weakened, it remained relatively high overall, providing strong cost support for the acetic anhydride market. At the same time, some manufacturers on the supply side stopped or reduced production, resulting in tight market supply. Coupled with downstream demand follow-up, the market fundamentals remained stable, supporting the high price of acetic anhydride.
Acetic acid market is weak in October
The price of acetic acid in October fell from 4850 yuan/ton to 4460 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 8.04%. After the holiday, downstream replenishment is active, demand side support is improving, and acetic acid prices remain at a high level; In the middle of the month, upstream methanol prices fell from a high level, cost support was weak, and acetic acid prices fell weakly; Affected by geopolitical factors in the latter half of the year, the methanol market rebounded and stopped falling, bringing favorable costs, and the price of acetic acid followed suit with an increase. The price of raw material acetic acid remains fluctuating at a high level, providing strong cost support for the acetic anhydride market.
Outlook for the coming period
Analysts believe that the current price of raw material acetic acid is firm, with strong cost support; The supply side spot is tight, and vinegar anhydride enterprises have a positive attitude; Downstream market entry is mainly based on demand, with resistance to high priced goods. There is a game of supply and demand in the market, and it is expected that the acetic anhydride market will fluctuate narrowly in the future, with prices maintaining high levels. Specific attention should be paid to changes in the upstream market and downstream follow-up situations.

The iron phosphate market remained high in October, with a slight adjustment in price. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of iron phosphate was 16475 yuan/ton. On October 27th, the average market price of iron phosphate was 16550 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.46%.
The main factors affecting the iron phosphate market in October
1、 Supply side: polarization of production and tearing of inventory structure
Integrated large factory (with its own phosphate ore and wet process phosphoric acid supporting facilities): operating at 85% -92%, scheduling inclined energy storage high-pressure solid materials, long-term contract locking, and extended delivery cycle.
Small and medium-sized factories that purchase raw materials from external sources: profit pressure, operating at only 45% -60%, weak orders, maintenance and load reduction to avoid losses.
Inventory characteristics: Accumulated inventory of ordinary materials and low inventory of high-end energy storage materials, which are the most core contradictions of this month; In the short term, there will be no large-scale centralized production of new facilities.
2、 Cost side: stable phosphorus source and ferrous, with support at the bottom
Wet process phosphoric acid, ferrous sulfate, and phosphate ore have shown minimal fluctuations this month;
The cost advantage of integrated enterprises is significant; Small and medium-sized manufacturers who purchase sulfuric acid from external sources have thin profits, and once sulfuric acid prices rise, processing profits will be quickly compressed.
3、 On the demand side: energy storage provides a bottom line, cautious on the power side, “sufficient orders, slow delivery”
Energy storage (core support): Domestic large-scale storage bidding has been implemented, overseas energy storage orders continue to increase, and there is sufficient cooperation among top iron and lithium plant managers. The demand for high-pressure iron phosphate is stable, supporting the premium of high-end materials.
Power battery: The vehicle production schedule is stable, but the battery factory’s pre holiday inventory is high. They implement on-demand procurement and batch replenishment, without hoarding, and have a strong willingness to lower prices, suppressing the price increase space of ordinary iron phosphate.
Downstream iron lithium end: In October, the price of lithium iron phosphate fell slightly, and the reverse upward transmission weakened the driving force for the price increase of iron phosphate.
Analysts believe that as we enter November, the iron phosphate market will continue to fluctuate within a certain range. Pressure is applied above ordinary materials; Energy storage brand maintains premium; We need to wait for the centralized replenishment of iron and lithium and further verification of overseas energy storage orders, and the price will still remain at 16500-17000 yuan/ton.