1、 Price trend
As of September 14th, the price of power type premium lithium iron phosphate is 56666 yuan/ton, with limited overall fluctuations. Trading in the spot market is biased towards demand, and at the beginning of the week, borrowing lithium carbonate to stabilize and rebound, coupled with expectations of the “Golden September” peak season, positive electrode manufacturers’ quotations have continued to rise; However, the follow-up of terminal demand fell short of expectations, coupled with a correction in lithium prices, resulting in a rapid decline in prices and a significant drop in spot quotes.
2、 Market analysis
In terms of operating rate: This week, new production capacity has been gradually put into operation with a small increase in supply, and the overall market supply is sufficient. In the early stage, low-priced stocking traders shipped at high prices, resulting in an increase in circulating supply and a sharp differentiation in operating rate. Leading integrated enterprises such as Hunan Yuneng and Defang Nano have operating rates of 95% -100%, with full production and sales, and delivery cycles compressed to within 7 days. Small and medium-sized factories lack high-end high-pressure real production capacity, and operating rates are generally less than 50%. Some have entered production reduction or shutdown. The industry’s total caliber is based on an average capacity utilization rate of about 75% in the first half of the year, but CITIC Construction Investment estimates that the industry’s average operating rate in July was about 90%
In terms of cost, the lithium carbonate market showed a significant decline in early September, with the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate dropping from 156000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 143000 yuan/ton on September 7th (-8.3%), with a maximum daily drop of 7000 yuan/ton; The main futures contract fluctuated downward this week, falling from 142000 yuan/ton on Monday to 134800 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of about 5%. It briefly fell to around 128000 yuan/ton during trading.
In terms of demand, the total demand is still growing, but the short-term pace is not as expected by the market. Power batteries: In the first half of the year, 335.6 GWh (+12%) of domestic power batteries were installed, including 272 GWh of lithium iron phosphate, accounting for 81%; The demand on the automotive side has shifted from “competing for scale” to “competing for quality”, with more incremental growth coming from commercial vehicles and exports, energy storage (core engines). In the first half of the year, domestic shipments of energy storage lithium batteries were about 485GWh, with a year-on-year increase of over 80%; However, in recent times, the bidding pace for large storage vehicles in China has been slow, and overseas orders have been released slowly. Short term consumption is limited, and the overall vehicle procurement strategy is still based on on-demand procurement. New energy vehicle manufacturers have not started large-scale stocking, and their acceptance of high-level raw materials is limited.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that in the short term (late September to October): pre holiday stocking provides a bottom line, while ordinary materials are still under pressure. Prices are expected to fluctuate between 54000-58000 yuan/ton for power type and 53000-56000 yuan/ton for energy storage type. After the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day stocking ends, if the energy storage production schedule falls short of expectations, there is still a slight downward space for ordinary second/third generation materials.

In September, the domestic PTA market showed a volatile and strong operating pattern. As of September 11th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 6971 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.10% from the beginning of the month.
From the perspective of core drivers, the rise in PTA in this round mainly relies on favorable conditions on the cost side of crude oil. Recently, international crude oil has fluctuated strongly due to the geopolitical situation. As of September 10th, the settlement price of the October WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $102.48 per barrel, and the settlement price of the November Brent crude oil futures contract was $107.63 per barrel. Provide favorable support for PTA spot and futures prices.
On the supply side, the PTA market has been continuously destocking in the early stage, with a relatively tight supply of spot goods, combined with processing differences to maintain a reasonable range, effectively supporting market prices and avoiding a significant decline in the market. With the restart and increase of most PTA maintenance units in September, the overall operating rate of the industry has steadily rebounded, and the market supply of goods has gradually relaxed. The previous pace of destocking has slowed down, and it is expected that the destocking will shift from destocking to supply-demand balance or even slight accumulation in the middle and late of this month.
The peak season of “Golden September” on the demand side did not meet expectations, coupled with high priced raw materials restricting terminal order demand, slow follow-up of terminal textile orders, and weak procurement of essential needs. As a result, the operating rate of downstream polyester enterprises is low, and some polyester chip factories plan to undergo maintenance. The polyester load will further decline, and the expected demand during peak season may fall short, making it difficult to drive PTA prices to continue to rise.
Analysts believe that in the short term, PTA will continue its strong range oscillation trend, with the cost side remaining the core influencing factor and relatively solid support. However, weak demand will suppress the weak upward momentum. With the continuous increase in market supply and insufficient fulfillment of peak season demand, the upward space for PTA will be further limited. If there is no strong driving force of a significant increase in crude oil prices, the market will be difficult to break through the range oscillation pattern, and the overall situation will show a “near strong far weak” trend. In the future, we will focus on the fluctuations of crude oil, changes in plant operation, and the landing of terminal polyester orders.

This week, the international sulfur market as a whole presented a structural differentiation pattern of “price adjustment and cost stability”. Although mainstream exporting countries in the Middle East have slightly lowered their contract prices in September, the actual comprehensive landed costs remain high due to the continued tightening of geopolitical and global tradable spot prices. The global sulfur market is undergoing a profound supply-demand restructuring, and the trend of easy rise but difficult fall in the short term is difficult to reverse.
1、 International Price Dynamics: Deviation between Contract Price Decline and Firm Cost of Arrival
The core contradiction of international sulfur prices this week lies in the deviation between “explicit price reduction” and “implicit cost increase”.
Middle East contract price adjustment: Qatar Energy announced the monthly contract price for sulfur in September 2026, with FOB (offshore price) lowered to $880/ton, a slight decrease of $10/ton from $890/ton in August. This reflects the intention of Middle Eastern exporting countries to alleviate downstream procurement pressure by adjusting prices.
Actual landed costs remain high: Despite some loosening of FOB prices, the continued escalation of geopolitical shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant increase in ocean insurance surcharges. Based on the August contract price in Kuwait (FOB 865 US dollars/ton), combined with high freight and insurance premiums, the theoretical CFR (cost plus freight) comprehensive landed cost for shipping to ports in southern China has exceeded 1070 US dollars/ton. Geopolitical risk has become the core factor that dominates the actual procurement cost of international sulfur at present.
2、 Global supply pattern: Multiple lockdowns lead to depletion of spot liquidity
Apart from the disruption caused by China Eastern Airlines, the supply of goods in major export regions around the world has simultaneously contracted, further exacerbating the tense global spot market situation
Middle East production capacity damage and shipping obstruction: Due to the continuous escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the refinery capacity of traditional major exporting countries has been damaged by about 30%, and the instability of Middle East sources has led to the depletion of liquidity in the spot market, resulting in frequent occurrences of “price but no market” phenomena. About 45% of the global shipping volume of sulfur passes through the Strait of Hormuz, posing a high risk of physical disruption.
Multi country export control and reflux: In order to prioritize the production of domestic fertilizer enterprises, multiple countries have implemented strict export control measures. Indian refineries voluntarily cease exports to the outside world; Türkiye continued to implement sulfur export control policies, and local spot prices rose significantly; Due to the damage to previous refinery facilities and the extension of export bans until the end of the year, Russia’s exports have continued to decrease. The global available spot quantity has been significantly reduced.
3、 Downstream industrial chain transmission: dual squeezing of fertilizers and new energy
As the absolute core raw material for the production of sulfuric acid and phosphate fertilizers, the high price of sulfur is profoundly affecting the global agricultural and new energy industry chain from top to bottom
Boosting global agricultural fertilization costs: The skyrocketing price of sulfur directly increases the production cost of phosphate fertilizers such as diammonium phosphate. In the corn belt region of the United States, the price of diammonium phosphate has risen to around $850 per ton, and the high price and drastic fluctuations have brought great uncertainty to farmers’ purchasing decisions for the upcoming 2027 planting season.

Suppressing overseas phosphate fertilizer and new energy production rates: Due to severe shortages of raw materials, overseas phosphate fertilizer companies are forced to continue controlling their operating loads, and European farmers are delaying autumn fertilizer preparation due to high costs. In addition, nickel cobalt hydrometallurgy (HPAL) projects in countries such as Indonesia have also been forced to reduce their operating loads due to sulfur shortages, and the sulfur bottleneck has substantially suppressed the capacity release of the global fertilizer and new energy industry chain.
4、 Market outlook: Continued tight balance pattern, wary of high-level fluctuations
Overall, the core contradiction in the current international sulfur market is no longer simply contract pricing, but the hidden cost increase caused by shipping risks, the contraction of multi country source outflow, and the sharp reduction of global tradable spot goods.
Short term trend: As long as the shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz are not substantially relieved and the export sources from India and Russia are not restored, the import landed costs for China and the world will continue to operate at a high level. The market is expected to maintain a high and wide range of fluctuations, with easy gains but difficult losses.
Mid to long term prediction: Overseas leading phosphate fertilizer companies have issued warnings that the global sulfur shortage pattern may continue until 2027. In the macro context of tight supply, high costs, weak demand, and strong prices, the high price situation in the global sulfur market is difficult to completely reverse in the short term.

LLDPE (7042) had an average price of 8506 yuan/ton on August 28th and 9125 yuan/ton on September 3rd, an increase of 7.27%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 10766 yuan/ton on August 28th and 11733 yuan/ton on September 3rd, an increase of 8.98%. HDPE (5000S) had an average price of 10612 yuan/ton on August 28th and 10937 yuan/ton on September 3rd, an increase of 3.06%.
The centralized maintenance of petrochemical facilities in the early stage and the contraction of market circulation sources are the core drivers of this round of price increase, among which LDPE is most significantly affected by maintenance. In September, maintenance facilities will resume production one after another, and domestic sources of goods will gradually be released, while coal production facilities will maintain high operating rates. The expected increase in imported capacity from overseas in the later stage further constrains the upward space of the market. The current overall inventory is still at a low level, which provides some bottom support for prices.
Downstream production has moderately rebounded from the low level in August, and the demand for agricultural film and pipe materials has improved. However, most industries only maintain the demand for immediate use and procurement, and there is insufficient willingness to actively replenish inventory. There is a divergence between the expected and actual peak season of Jinjiu, with high inventory of downstream finished products and weak profits, resulting in strong resistance to high priced raw materials. The demand only achieves weak repair and only serves as a bottom support for the market, making it difficult to drive a significant unilateral increase in prices.
Oil based PE follows the high volatility of crude oil and ethylene, forming a bottom support for spot prices. However, crude oil lacks sustained upward momentum, making it difficult to further push up prices.
The short-term polyethylene market will shift from a rapid rise in the early stage to a high-level oscillation, with insufficient momentum for a large increase, but low inventory and cost support will provide bottom support for the price. With the resumption of production of maintenance equipment, supply pressure is gradually emerging, and downstream acceptance of high priced raw materials is limited, suppressing the upward space in the market.

As of September 1st, the price of 0 # zinc was 26948 yuan/ton, up from 26235 yuan/ton on August 31st, with a daily increase of 2.72%.
Core market data
Domestic futures market
On September 1, 2026, the main contract for Shanghai zinc, ZN2610, closed at 27070 yuan/ton, an increase of 715 yuan/ton or 2.71% from the previous trading day. The intraday high reached 27165 yuan/ton, setting a new historical high since May 2022. The total trading volume of the entire market was 280668 lots, with a turnover of 37.886 billion yuan, holding 341819 lots, and increasing positions by 16934 lots.
International Futures Market
LME zinc futures reached a high of $3990/ton during trading, up 2.68% and hitting a new four-year high simultaneously. LME zinc futures are approaching the $4000 mark.
Fundamentally, the resonance between minerals, smelting, and inventory is exacerbated by the combination of financial factors.
Supply side:
Mining sector: Supply gap continues to widen
Geopolitical ‘black swan’: The escalation of the situation in the Middle East directly blocks the external transportation channels of Iranian zinc mines, with an estimated monthly impact of about 15000 to 20000 tons of metal in the market;
Domestic mining production reduction: Several small and medium-sized mines in major production areas such as Inner Mongolia and Yunnan have gradually stopped production due to safety and environmental inspections and declining grades, resulting in a significant decrease in daily production of domestic mines compared to the previous period;
Imported ore ‘quantity reduction and price increase’: The transaction price of processing fees for imported zinc concentrate in August has fallen to -117.50 US dollars per ton, which means that smelters not only cannot receive processing fees, but also need to pay fees to the mining end. This is the first time since 2008 that there has been a sustained negative processing fee, directly reflecting the extreme level of shortage in the mining end.

Smelting end: Negative processing fees force production reduction
Under the dual pressure of high raw material procurement costs and low prices of by-products such as sulfuric acid, more than half of domestic smelters are already in a cash flow deficit state;
According to incomplete statistics, it is known that the total annual production capacity of refineries involved in maintenance and planned production cuts in September exceeded 800000 tons. It is expected that the refined zinc production for the month will decrease by 25000 to 30000 tons compared to the previous month, and the supply contraction is moving from expectations to reality.
Inventory end
LME zinc registered warehouse receipts have dropped to below 100000 tons, the lowest level in nearly three years.
SHFE inventory decreased by 9497 tons per week to 102672 tons, and the destocking slope accelerated.
comprehensive analysis
The internal and external markets have formed a resonance upward pattern. A structurally strong market trend where the supply and demand fundamentals are transmitted and confirmed layer by layer from the mining end to the smelting end. Above 27000 yuan belongs to the high valuation area, with a high risk of chasing after high prices. It is expected to experience strong fluctuations at high levels and intensify volatility.