This month (6.1-6.29), the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fluctuated and fell at a high level. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 430170 yuan/ton, and as of June 29, the average market price was 388650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.65%.
Macroscopic perspective
The macro tone in June tends to be bearish. At the FOMC meeting, interest rates remained unchanged but the wording of the statement turned hawkish. The dot matrix showed that half of the committee members supported at least one interest rate hike within the year. The core PCE forecast for 2026 was raised to 3.3%, and the US dollar index fluctuated and strengthened, putting overall pressure on basic metals. In late June, technology stocks in the US stock market suffered heavy losses, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeting nearly 10% in a single week. Tin, as a product highly correlated with semiconductor prosperity, suffered a double impact on market sentiment.
news flow
The progress of resuming production in the Wa State of Myanmar continues to be lower than expected, with a road repair rate of about 70% and monthly production restored to 40% -50% before the mining ban; Indonesia’s tin ingot exports from January to April decreased by about 15% year-on-year; The ongoing conflict in the mining areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo continues to disrupt. This month’s hot topic defines tin as a ‘computing power metal’, but the two consecutive days of decline in the latter half of the month indicate that the bullish supply has been fully priced, and the market focus has shifted to the macro and demand sides.
fundamentals
There is a significant differentiation on the inventory side. On June 12th, the inventory of tin in the previous period surged by 4064 tons to 12358 tons (a weekly increase of nearly 50%), and fell back to 9286 tons in the latter half of the week; LME tin inventory is about 8775 tons, maintaining a relatively low level – both domestic accumulation and overseas destocking coexist. On the demand side, June is the traditional off-season for consumption, and the operating rate of solder enterprises is about 74%. The downstream willingness to receive goods above 400000 yuan/ton is sluggish. Although the demand for AI servers constitutes medium to long term support, the monthly increase in consumption is not enough to fully offset the decrease in traditional demand during the off-season.
comprehensive analysis
Short term Q3 forecast: Macro disturbances (Federal Reserve policy expectations) and supply support (slow resumption of production in Myanmar, restricted exports in Indonesia) enter a stalemate phase. The off-season characteristics on the demand side continue, and there is limited room for repairing the operating rate. The expected core oscillation range is 385000 to 445000 yuan/ton, and any upward breakthrough requires a macro shift or supply side contraction beyond expectations.
The global tin ore supply elasticity is insufficient, and emerging demands such as AI computing power, advanced packaging, and photovoltaic ribbon continue to expand. The tight balance pattern provides bottom support for prices. The supply bottleneck remains unresolved, and the long-term upward trend of the tin price center has not changed.

This week (6.22-6.26), the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi region fell, with an average market price of 16250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 15950 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.85%.
The following analysis is based on fundamentals:
Supply and demand side

The pressure on the supply side has not decreased, and the operating rate in the main production areas remains high. Some manufacturers have actively increased production to dilute fixed costs, further increasing market supply. The supply increment continues to release, and the pressure on factory shipments continues to increase.

The demand side is showing signs of fatigue, with domestic terminals only maintaining a small amount of procurement for essential needs, limited inquiries from intermediaries, and insufficient willingness to purchase in bulk. The export side is even more severe, with a significant increase in international shipping costs and the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate. The competitiveness of domestic magnesium ingot exports has significantly declined, and overseas buyers are becoming more cautious, resulting in a scarcity of new orders. Under the dual suppression of internal and external demand, the market as a whole continues to experience a continuous downward trend.

Raw material end

Marginal weakening of cost support. Previously, magnesium prices received cost support around 16300 yuan/ton, mainly due to factories reaching the loss line and strong willingness to raise prices. But this week’s drop in the price of thermal coal further weakened the support of the cost side. When cost support is no longer strong, a downward breakthrough in prices becomes inevitable.
integrated forecasting
The current magnesium market is under triple pressure of “loose costs, high supply, and freezing demand”. In the short term, factory inventory has exceeded historical highs. If inventory continues to accumulate, companies may be forced to further sell at lower prices. The only potential positive factor is that, against the backdrop of the continued widening price difference between magnesium and aluminum, the substitution logic of magnesium alloys in areas such as automotive lightweighting is strengthening. However, this is a medium – to long-term structural change that is difficult to hedge against the short-term downward pressure caused by the current supply-demand imbalance. It is expected that magnesium prices will continue to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term.

As of June 25th, the average market price of acetic acid was 3056.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 36.67 yuan/ton or 1.21% compared to the price of 3020 yuan/ton on June 18th.
Recently, the domestic acetic acid market has seen a narrow upward trend. The price of raw material methanol has fallen, and the cost of acetic acid has loosened, which has suppressed the acetic acid market; On the supply side, the operating rate of the acetic acid plant is not high. At the end of the month, the company’s long-term contract orders are being executed, and overall inventory pressure is not significant. The market mentality is mainly strong; Due to limited trading in the terminal market and downstream on-demand purchasing, coupled with a fundamental supply-demand game, the price of acetic acid saw a slight increase during the week.
Recently, the raw material methanol market has been weak and declining. As of June 25th, the average price in the domestic market was 2713 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.96% compared to the price of 2916 yuan/ton on June 18th. The expected increase in the methanol port market has led to a weak mentality among industry players and a downward shift in price focus; Domestic methanol demand has entered the traditional off-season, with low enthusiasm for entering the market and a poor trading atmosphere on site. Many companies offer discounts for shipments, resulting in a significant decrease in methanol prices during the week.
The downstream acetic anhydride market is weak and consolidating. From June 18th to 25th, the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride fell from 5330 yuan/ton to 5312.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33%. The production of acetic anhydride on the supply side is stable, and there has been an increase in spot goods in the market. On the demand side, downstream follow-up is insufficient, and on-site trading performance is mediocre. The fundamental supply exceeds demand, and the industry’s market mentality is poor. Acetic anhydride prices have slightly decreased during the week.
Market forecast: Analysts believe that the current operating rate of acetic acid is not high, coupled with some companies having maintenance plans in July, the market sentiment is optimistic, downstream product market is weak, demand support is average, and the rise of acetic acid market is limited. It is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will be observed and adjusted, and specific attention will be paid to market supply and downstream follow-up situation.

price trend
In the second half of June, the domestic PC market continued to decline, with a significant drop in spot prices for various brands. As of June 24th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 13400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.42% from the beginning of the month.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: In the second half of June, the operating rate of domestic PC aggregation enterprises continued to rise. The overall industry load rate has recovered to around 70%, and there are still plans to return the production capacity of aggregation plants in the future. The production loss is gradually shrinking, and the weekly average production has returned to 60000 tons. The smoothness of shipments from the aggregation plant has declined, and the willingness to raise prices has loosened. Overall, the supply side’s support for PC is showing a trend of weakening.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic bisphenol A market consolidated at a low level in June. International crude oil prices have sharply declined, with raw materials such as acetone and phenol fluctuating with each drop. Bisphenol A has limited supply changes and demand remains weak and rigid. Although the spot price has reached a temporary low after a decline at the beginning of the month. However, positive guidance within the market is difficult to achieve, and the market is deadlocked with weak expectations, resulting in overall weak support for PC cost values.
On the demand side: The sales situation of PC downstream factories is at a low season level, and the demand for sheet metal shells is weakening, resulting in low load levels for end enterprises. The current PC prices are rapidly moving in the right direction, with industry players chasing after gains and killing losses, and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. The buyer is cautious in stocking up and has poor willingness to build a warehouse. The liquidity of the supply of goods has slowed down, and merchants’ offers have followed the market trend, resulting in an increase in profit sharing and order taking operations. The low-priced source of goods in the market needs to be digested, which creates a drag on the pricing focus of the aggregation factory. Overall, the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.
post-market forecast
At the end of June, the domestic PC market experienced a sharp decline. The price of upstream bisphenol A remains low and stable, and the cost value is difficult to support PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants continues to increase, and there are still expectations of relaxed supply in the future. On site trading is mainly based on weak demand, with cautious stocking and frequent small orders. At present, the supply and demand of PC are weak, cost expectations are weak, and the market orientation is relatively negative. It is expected that there may still be a risk of decline in the short term.

LLDPE (7042) had an average price of 8301 yuan/ton on June 12th and 7941 yuan/ton on June 17th, a decrease of 1.34%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 10116 yuan/ton on June 12th and 9766 yuan/ton on June 17th, a decrease of 3.46%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on June 12th was 10200 yuan/ton, and on June 17th it was 10125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74%.
Recently, the international crude oil geopolitical risk aversion sentiment has subsided, oil prices have fluctuated and fallen, and the center of gravity of raw material costs has shifted downwards, dragging down the polyethylene market.
The maintenance benefits are gradually diminishing, and the circulation of goods is loose. Multiple sets of polyethylene plants will resume production in mid June. The recovery of shipping in the Middle East, the increase in the arrival volume of imported LDPE at ports, and the surplus of high-pressure material sources are the core reasons for the deepest decline in LDPE. Yangtze Petrochemical has been shut down for long-term maintenance, and there is a temporary shortage of low-pressure materials in the East China region, with some spot stocks resisting the decline.
Off season for agricultural film: The demand for plastic film and greenhouse film has all come to an end, and the production of agricultural film has fallen to a low level this year. The production of packaging film, injection molding, hollowing, and coating has declined, resulting in a backlog of finished product inventory. Downstream factories are all purchasing on demand without any advance replenishment behavior. Traders actively reduce prices and sell off inventory, exacerbating the price decline.
Continued loose supply coupled with downstream off-season drag has led to overall weak volatility of polyethylene in the short term. After a sharp decline, there may be a slight narrow recovery, but the rebound space is limited.