1、 Price trend
As of May 21st, the reference average price of urea market in Shandong Province, China was 1775 yuan/ton, which is 2.61% lower than the reference average price of 1822 yuan/ton on May 15th.
2、 Market analysis
market situation
This week, the domestic urea market prices continued to decline weakly. Recently, urea prices in the spot market have been continuously declining due to export rumors. The futures market started to rebound after a decline. As of May 21st, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1740-1800 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1750-1790 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1750-1800 yuan/ton, Hubei is around 1750-1810 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1850-1870 yuan/ton.
supply and demand situation
In terms of supply, the current operating rate of urea enterprises is over 90%, and the overall inventory remains high. In terms of demand, the demand for agricultural urea fertilizer has weakened. The operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises has decreased, resulting in a reduction in urea procurement. The demand for industrial urea is also beginning to weaken.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the recent downward trend in the domestic urea market is the main reason. At present, the demand for urea is off-season, downstream procurement is slowing down, and new orders in the market are decreasing. At present, there is no positive news, and it is expected that the domestic urea market will weaken and consolidate in the short term.

According to data from Shengyishe Spot News, as of May 15th, the average price of acetic acid in the market was 3083.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 186.67 yuan/ton or 5.71% compared to the price of 3270 yuan/ton on May 8th.
Recently, the domestic price of acetic acid has been continuously declining. Although the acetic acid plant has undergone extensive maintenance and supply performance has contracted, downstream demand is weak, coupled with high raw material methanol prices and significant cost pressures. Acetic acid companies have a clear shipping sentiment, and the focus of negotiations continues to shift downwards. The transaction volume in the acetic acid terminal market is average, with rigid demand procurement being the main focus. At the same time, the downstream product operating rate is low, and the demand side support is insufficient. The buyer’s market still dominates, and the price of acetic acid is weakly declining.
Recently, the raw material methanol market has been fluctuating. As of May 15th, the average price in the domestic market was 3137 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83% compared to the price of 3111 yuan/ton on May 8th. The domestic methanol supply is abundant, with weak operation as the main factor. However, the arrival volume of foreign ships is low, and the export volume is high. The methanol inventory at ports has decreased significantly, which provides some support for the spot market. Downstream demand follows suit, and market prices fluctuate, which has a negative impact on acetic acid.
The downstream acetic anhydride market is operating strongly, with the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride rising from 5750 yuan/ton to 5800 yuan/ton from May 8th to 15th, an increase of 0.87%. Some manufacturers of acetic anhydride on the supply side are undergoing maintenance, resulting in a decrease in market supply and a strong bullish trend among industry players. Acetic anhydride prices have generally increased, while raw material acetic acid prices have fallen, limiting the price increase of acetic anhydride. The acetic anhydride market has seen a narrow upward adjustment.
Market forecast: According to the acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society, the current operating rate of acetic acid is not high, with some support from the supply side. At the same time, downstream production is insufficient, resulting in poor demand for acetic acid. There is a game of supply and demand in the market, and it is expected that the acetic acid market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. We will pay attention to the market supply situation in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market has shown a weak overall trend since May. As of May 17th, the average price of PTA spot market in East China was 6573 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.29% from the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, supported by PX costs and favorable conditions for large-scale PTA plant maintenance, the price slightly rose to around 6700 yuan/ton. With the continuous weakness of downstream polyester and terminal textile demand, coupled with geopolitical easing leading to a decline in crude oil premiums, prices have fluctuated and fallen.
The supply side has significantly contracted, with April and June being the peak period for PTA annual maintenance, and May’s maintenance scale reaching a new high in recent years. The planned maintenance capacity is 18.1 million tons, with an additional 5 million tons of equipment undergoing unplanned maintenance, and only 1.2 million tons being restarted. As of mid May, the industry’s operating rate has fallen to around 63%, hitting a low in recent years, and the supply side has significantly tightened. At the same time, processing fees continue to be repaired, factory losses have narrowed, and there is a strong willingness to passively reduce production and undergo maintenance, providing fundamental support for prices.
However, the high volatility of crude oil and PX on the cost side provides limited support. Crude oil prices have fluctuated and adjusted. As of May 14th, the settlement price of the June WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $101.17 per barrel, and the settlement price of the July Brent crude oil futures contract was $105.72 per barrel. The simultaneous maintenance and tight supply of PX in Asia have a solid cost base, but the downward transmission of power is insufficient, which can only limit the downward space of PTA and make it difficult to promote a significant increase.
The demand side continues to be weak, with downstream polyester industry operating at only 81%, a significant year-on-year decline. Insufficient orders for terminal weaving and high inventory of finished products have led polyester enterprises to proactively reduce their burden, resulting in weak demand procurement. Although autumn and winter orders and export orders gradually started in late May, it is difficult to significantly improve in the short term.
In the short term, the dividends of PTA plant maintenance will continue to be released, and inventory will be realized, with supply contraction supporting prices; But the off-season demand is difficult to quickly recover, which will drag down prices. Furthermore, from the perspective of the Business Society spot trading channel, the 10 day moving average has crossed the 20 day moving average, and the Business Society moving average continues to expand negatively. The further divergence of the 10 day and 20 day moving averages indicates that the PTA market has entered a downward trend.
In addition, considering the five levels, the current price position is at a one-year high and a 90 day mid to high range, and we need to be alert to the risk of short-term correction.

As of May 12th, the DOP price was 10000.83 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.99% compared to the DOP price of 10100.83 yuan/ton on May 6th. In May, the overall DOP market showed a trend of high level narrow range oscillation and weak consolidation, with a slight downward shift in price center compared to April, but still maintaining a relatively high level for the year. The core logic is the weakening of cost support, loose supply and demand, and weak downstream demand.
Cost side: Weakened support for raw materials
After the holiday, the price of raw material isooctanol first rose and then fell
As of May 12th, the price of isooctanol was 8766.67 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 0.38% compared to the price of 8800 yuan/ton on May 1st; Compared to May 9th, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell by 3.31% to 9066.67 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the price of propylene fluctuated and fell, and the cost of isooctanol decreased. In addition, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises decreased after the holiday, and the supply of isooctanol briefly tightened. In May, the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell. Overall, the marginal support for isooctanol cost after the holiday weakened, and the support for DOP increase was insufficient.
Phthalic anhydride market fluctuates and falls
As of May 12th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 8910 yuan/ton, slightly lower than the price of phthalic anhydride on May 1st at 8933.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.26%. Cost support, coupled with a decrease in production of phthalic anhydride enterprises after the holiday, led to weak consolidation of phthalic anhydride prices and weak support for DOP growth. But with the downward trend of ortho xylene prices, the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride prices is obvious, and the downward pressure on DOP in the future market is increasing.
Post holiday DOP Market Supply and Demand Analysis
Supply side: Rising production and loose supply
In May, some DOP units of plasticizer companies were repaired and restarted, and the industry’s operating rate rebounded to around 65%. The market supply is sufficient, and manufacturers’ willingness to raise prices has weakened, with a focus on shipping.
On the demand side: sustained weakness, primarily driven by rigid demand
More than 90% of DOP is used as a plasticizer for PVC, resulting in high inventory and weak demand in the downstream PVC industry. The recovery of terminal industries such as real estate and packaging is slow, and downstream factories only maintain essential procurement without large orders and low willingness to stock up. Environmental substitution is accelerating, and environmentally friendly plasticizers such as DOTP are squeezing out the market share of DOP, resulting in a long-term bearish demand structure. The overall demand for DOP remains weak, with insufficient growth in essential demand. Traders are reducing their holdings at high prices and operating cautiously. Upstream and downstream supply and demand are deadlocked, and transactions are mostly small orders for essential needs, limiting price fluctuations.
Market Overview and Future Expectations
The data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products believes that after the holiday, raw material prices fluctuated and fell, and DOP provided insufficient support. In addition, with loose supply and weak demand, DOP’s upward support was insufficient. At the end of the month, there may be demand for replenishing inventory downstream, with loose supply and weak demand being the main tone. If raw materials continue to weaken, the downward pressure on the future DOP market will increase. Overall, the DOP market in May was in a game state of “high cost, weak demand, and tight balance”. The lack of significant upward momentum in prices, but the bottom line of costs limits the space for deep decline, and the overall trend will be dominated by high-level weak consolidation and narrow range oscillation.

1、 Market Review
In the past week (May 4-10), the PA6 market has shown a weak and volatile trend, with weakened cost support and continued weak supply and demand patterns. According to the monitoring of Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of PA6 has been declining from 13400 yuan/ton in early May to 13200 yuan/ton on May 10th, a decrease of about 1.49%. In the 18th week of 2026 (May 4th to May 8th), PA6 led the engineering plastics sector with a weekly decline of -0.75%.
2、 Cause analysis
From a cost perspective, the high price of core raw material caprolactam has loosened, and cost support has weakened. Since late April, the market for caprolactam has fallen from a high level. The weekly closing price of Sinopec Caprolactam decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 13650 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; On May 8th, Hualu Hengsheng lowered the price of caprolactam by 250 yuan/ton to 12300 yuan/ton. The average weekly spot price of caprolactam in East China is 12350 yuan/ton.
From the perspective of supply and demand, the supply is relatively loose while the demand remains weak. The overall operating rate of PA6 equipment is at a high level, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to ship. “Real order negotiations” are common, and the actual transaction price is often lower than the quoted price. However, the downstream textile and chemical fiber industry has a low acceptance of high priced raw materials, and procurement is mainly based on “just in need replenishment and on-demand procurement”, without centralized stockpiling. The trading atmosphere is cautious, resulting in a sluggish overall market trading.
3、 Short term outlook
Overall, the short-term PA6 market is expected to maintain a narrow consolidation and weak oscillation pattern, and there may be a slight downward shift in the price center. If there is no new price increase catalyst on the raw material side and there is no significant improvement in terminal orders, it is difficult for the market to have a reversal momentum.