Aluminum prices rose first and then fell in November
Aluminum prices first rose and then fell in November. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 27, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 21473.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85% compared to the market average price of 21293.33 yuan/ton on November 1; Compared to the market average price of 21933.33 yuan/ton on November 13th, it has decreased by 2.10%.
The aluminum price has exceeded the 21000 mark and is at a relatively high level in the past 1-2 years. The price of raw material alumina has fallen from its high level, and the profit per ton of aluminum is currently in a relatively good position.
Supply side: Capacity rigidity highlights limited incremental growth
Domestic: As of November, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has remained at 44.135 million tons, and the operating rate is approaching the “ceiling” of production capacity (the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is about 45.84 million tons, and the new production capacity of 1.345 million tons has been put into operation in 2025, with only 1.23 million tons waiting to be put into operation, and the long-term supply growth rate is slowing down; there may be new production capacity plans in Xinjiang in the short term, which are expected to bring a small increase in supply, but the impact on the overall pattern is limited.
Overseas: Supply disruptions still exist, with Iceland’s Grundatangi aluminum plant (with a capacity of 320000 tons per year) reducing production by about 2/3 due to electrical equipment failures (affecting production capacity of 200000 tons per year), Mozambique’s aluminum plant facing the risk of power contract expiration (or shutting down 520000 tons of production capacity after March 2026), and insufficient resilience in overseas supply, supporting the global aluminum price risk premium.
Cost side: phased relief of long-term upward pressure
Minor cost reduction: This week, the theoretical production cost of electrolytic aluminum has slightly decreased due to the reduction in alumina prices, partially easing the cost pressure on enterprises;
Concerns about energy costs: the price of thermal coal first fell and then rose, and there is a possibility of an increase in the price of thermal power electricity; At the same time, the dry season is approaching, and hydropower prices are facing upward pressure, which may drag down corporate profits in the future;
Profit level: Despite the decrease in costs, aluminum prices have synchronously rebounded. The theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum this week has slightly narrowed compared to last week, and the industry still maintains strong profitability (with an average weekly profit of about 5806 yuan/ton).
Demand side: Structural differentiation and emerging fields become the core driving force
The demand for construction aluminum (aluminum profiles, aluminum templates, etc.) has shown weak growth, with a year-on-year decrease of 19.8% in new construction area from January to October. The lag in completion has made it difficult to boost in the short term, and the construction rate of aluminum profiles has dropped to 52.1% on a weekly basis (week on week -0.5%), with sluggish orders for construction profiles.
New energy vehicles: In October, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales exceeded 50% for the first time (reaching 51.6%). Under the trend of industry lightweighting, the average aluminum consumption per vehicle for new energy vehicles in China is expected to approach 245 kilograms by 2025. The demand for aluminum in components such as body panels and battery casings continues to drive, and the production rate of automotive profiles remains relatively high.
Power infrastructure: The investment in the power grid and the construction of ultra-high voltage are steadily advancing, providing stable support for the demand for aluminum stranded wires and aluminum conductors. The operating rate of aluminum cables is maintained at 63.4% supported by orders, becoming a “ballast stone” for aluminum consumption.

Photovoltaic: The long-term growth logic is stable, but there is no significant project dynamics in the short term. The module production is expected to decrease month on month (November is expected to be 42.64GW, month on month -3.18%), and the demand for aluminum frames and brackets is relatively flat.
Market forecast: Short term oscillation, long-term strong bias
Short term electrolytic aluminum is intertwined with bullish and bearish factors, forming a confrontation between macro bearish and fundamental support.
Negative factors: The expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in December has cooled down, the US dollar has strengthened, the new production capacity in Xinjiang has brought about an increase in supply, and high prices continue to suppress downstream processing links;
Positive factors: The expectation of domestic consumption stimulus policies is still in place, the impressive data of new energy vehicles provides long-term confidence, and overseas supply disruptions (such as low natural gas storage capacity in Germany or rising energy costs) support external aluminum prices.
Expected range: The operating range for electrolytic aluminum prices is 21100-22000 yuan/ton, with a focus on overseas monetary policy trends and the pace of domestic inventory depletion.
In the long run, the center of gravity of electrolytic aluminum prices will rise in 2026, which is easy to rise but difficult to fall.
On the supply side, the domestic production capacity of 45 million tons remains stable, while overseas growth mainly comes from Indonesia (with newly invested production capacity of 1.22-1.67 million tons, but some production capacity is shut down to offset). The rigidity of global electrolytic aluminum supply is significant, and any unexpected supply disturbance may push up prices.
On the demand side: The decline in traditional sectors (real estate) has narrowed, while demand in emerging sectors (new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, AI related power facilities) continues to grow. Strategic emerging industries such as aerospace and low altitude economy have opened up medium – and long-term demand space in the “15th Five Year Plan”.
On the cost side, the overall price of alumina is weak, but there is a risk of an upward trend in electricity costs (coal prices may rise under the “anti involution” policy). The electrolytic aluminum industry maintains strong profitability, supporting the bottom of prices.
Expected range: The center of gravity of electrolytic aluminum prices will rise in 2026, with an operating range of 19800-24500 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market has been stagnant and consolidating recently, at a relatively high level in the past two months. As of November 26th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4654 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.20% compared to November 10th.
From a cost perspective, OPEC+has increased production in a new round, and the market is still concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply. The regional situation has eased, and coupled with weakened US demand, US tariff issues have dragged down global economic and demand expectations, leading to a decline in international oil prices. As of November 25th, the settlement price of the January WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $57.95 per barrel, a decrease of $0.89 or 1.5%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February was $61.80 per barrel, a decrease of $0.92 or 1.5%.
From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, the 2.2 million ton PTA plant of Yisheng Ningbo was shut down on November 20th, and the 2.5 million ton PTA plant of Honggang Petrochemical was shut down on November 17th and restarted on November 26th. The current PTA operating load is around 72%, and multiple units are under maintenance. With the completion of some short-term maintenance units, there is some pressure on the supply.
The new downstream polyester facilities have been put into operation successively, and some facilities have been postponed for maintenance again. The domestic polyester industry supply has increased, but due to the slow increase in load of the new facilities, the operating rate of the polyester industry has remained around 87%. The demand in the terminal market has shown signs of cooling down. Currently, the production pace of weaving factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions still mainly relies on orders received in the early stage as support. The pressure of new orders is gradually weakening, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is decreasing.
Business analysts believe that cost support is weak, and PTA supply will gradually recover in the future. India has cancelled the BIS certification for polyester fibers, and China’s polyester and textile exports are expected to recover. However, the domestic consumer market is weak, and we are cautious about the expectation of a rebound in future orders. Therefore, overall, PTA’s continued lack of action is insufficient.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has shown a sharp fluctuation trend recently. As of November 25th, the benchmark price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate was 92266 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.15% from the high point of the week (November 19th), a month on month increase of 21.56%, and a year-on-year increase of 14.19%; The benchmark price of domestic industrial grade lithium carbonate trading company is 90433 yuan/ton, up 21.99% month on month and 15.64% year-on-year.
The core driving force for the early rise comes from the continuous improvement of terminal demand
Downstream demand remains optimistic, with overall feedback from the materials sector indicating full orders, and the energy storage sector continuing to exceed expectations. In the first three quarters of 2025, the global cumulative shipment of energy storage cells reached 410.45GWh, a year-on-year increase of 98.5%. Among them, 170.24GWh was shipped in a single quarter in the third quarter, continuing to break the single quarter record.
In the field of new energy vehicles, in October, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, an increase of 21.1% and 20.0% year-on-year. The proportion of new car sales to total car sales reached 51.6%, setting a new historical high.
Later market sentiment fluctuations, lithium carbonate stops rising and returns to decline
On November 20th, the exchange announced the adjustment of contract fees and the establishment of stricter daily opening limits. The sentiment in the futures market has cooled down, and spot prices have stopped rising accordingly. Recent market news suggests that Ningde Times’ Jianxiawo lithium mine may resume production in early December, further putting pressure on prices.
Further cooling down market sentiment through destocking
The 14 week trend of destocking has significantly slowed down. As of the 21st, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 118400 tons, a decrease of only 2052 tons compared to the previous month, including 26100 tons of smelter inventory and 54400 tons of downstream inventory.
Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that in the medium to long term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate strongly under the situation of strong supply and demand. Rumors of short-term resumption of production will still disturb the market, and specific market changes need to be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 17th to 21st (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port quotations fell from 2020 yuan/ton to around 1995 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.24% during the period, a month on month drop of 11.92%, and a year-on-year drop of 21.76%. Affected by factors such as reverse flow of port goods, the methanol inventory in ports has slightly decreased, but the high inventory continues to suppress the market, making it difficult for the methanol market in ports to improve, and the downward trend is mainly continuing.
As of the close on November 21st, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2601, opened at 2016 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2029 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2001 yuan/ton. It closed at 2004 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 7 yuan or 0.35% from the previous trading day’s settlement. Transaction volume 1085596, open position 1402474, daily increase position -25359.
On the cost side, coal inventory remains at a regular level, mainly for essential purchases, and prices continue to operate steadily, providing strong support on the cost side. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, the continuous external procurement of olefins in mainland China, coupled with downstream demand for rigid procurement, lacks the willingness to actively stockpile goods, and the strength of favorable factors is insufficient. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards negative factors.
On the supply side, the planned maintenance and reduction of methanol production facilities will decrease, while the number of recovery facilities will increase, resulting in an overall increase in market supply. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of November 20th, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at 316.5-317.5 US dollars per ton; The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 88.5-89.5 cents per gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 259.5-260.5 euros/ton.
In the future forecast, the overall profitability of the upstream and downstream industrial chains is weak, and there is no obvious sign of contraction on the supply side, in the absence of substantial positive factors to support it. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market is still mainly weak.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 7005 yuan/ton on November 17th, and the average price was 6990 yuan/ton on November 21st, a decrease of 0.21%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9100 yuan/ton on November 17th and 9033 yuan/ton on November 21st, a decrease of 0.73%. The average price of HDPE (2426H) on November 17th was 7532 yuan/ton, and on November 21st it was 7457 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.00%.
This week, polyethylene continues to show a weak trend, and the market lacks positive support. The maintenance of the equipment has decreased compared to the early stage, and new equipment has been put into operation. In addition, with the increase of imported goods in the long term, the supply pressure has increased. In terms of greenhouse film, demand has slowed down compared to the previous period; In terms of plastic film, demand is in the off-season; Downstream procurement of packaging film is flat, with a focus on essential needs; Insufficient follow-up of new orders by wire drawing enterprises, resulting in weak production; The overall downstream delivery of polyethylene is cautious, with weak demand. The wide fluctuations in crude oil prices have limited impact on the polyethylene market.
The market lacks positive support, and the sentiment in the market is bearish. It is expected that polyethylene will mainly operate weakly.