According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July, the aniline market has experienced a decline, with the average price dropping to 7025 yuan/ton as of the 9th. Compared to the beginning of the month at 7900 yuan/ton, the decline was as high as 11.08%. One reason for the analysis is that the price of raw material pure benzene has entered a downward channel, and aniline is significantly dragged down by costs. Secondly, the maintenance equipment was restarted in July, and the market supply was filled quickly, causing the company to accumulate inventory. The third reason is that the downstream is in the off-season, with many small single houses and a strong atmosphere of observation.
Market forecast: In the short term, there are many negative factors in the aniline market, and there is currently no positive boost. The price of aniline has fallen to a low level, and it is expected that the downward trend in the future will slow down, with weak consolidation as the main operation.

Market mentality warms up
Recently, the domestic acrylic acid market has shown a moderate upward trend. As of July 7th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 7233.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.93% compared to the beginning of this month (7166.67 yuan/ton). It is worth noting that although the price of raw material propylene has fallen today, the prices of downstream butyl ester and isooctyl ester products have continued to rise. At present, the market presents the following characteristics: downstream procurement is still dominated by rigid demand, but the overall trading atmosphere in the market has significantly rebounded compared to the previous period; Combined with the fact that some production enterprises’ equipment is still under maintenance this week, the market supply remains tight. Under the dual effects of improved supply and demand patterns and cost support, the acrylic acid market as a whole is showing a stable and positive operating trend.
Monitoring data shows that the price of acrylic acid has recently increased by 0.93%, mainly due to the combined effect of the following market variables.
Cost end
Recently, the international crude oil and polypropylene futures markets have continued to weaken, leading to a synchronous decline in propylene spot prices in Shandong region. As of July 7th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6700.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.3% compared to the beginning of this month (6720.75 yuan/ton). From the perspective of market supply and demand, although the industry’s operating rate remains relatively stable, different manufacturers have differentiated their price adjustment strategies: some companies choose to raise prices and wait, while others actively lower their quotes, resulting in a significant decrease in overall trading activity. It is worth noting that the concessions on the raw material side have eased the production cost pressure on downstream enterprises, especially the profit level of the acrylic acid industry has significantly improved.
Need End
Currently, the acrylic ester market is showing an upward trend, with prices of butyl acrylate and isooctyl ester showing particularly strong performance. Affected by the low inventory of acrylic acid at the raw material end and the rise in alcohol prices, ester enterprises are facing increased cost pressure. Some manufacturers have voluntarily raised their prices, driving market transaction prices to steadily rise. This market change has provided positive feedback to the acrylic acid market, further consolidating its price support.
Overview of Market Trends
The peak season effect is evident, with strong support for the acrylic acid market. Driven by the rebound in seasonal demand, the trading atmosphere in the domestic acrylic acid market has significantly improved. On the supply side, the power rationing factors that previously constrained production have been basically eliminated; The demand side benefits from the opening of export windows, the stimulation of reduced shipping costs, and the release of downstream replenishment demand. The current market is experiencing a strong oscillation trend, supported by both the cost line and demand line.

According to the price data from Shengyi Society, the price of polyester bottle flakes (PET) continued its weak downward trend this week. As of June 30th, the average selling price of PET was 6012 yuan/ton.
The overall price continued to decline during the week, with spot prices dropping from 6085 yuan/ton on June 30th to 6012 yuan/ton on July 4th, a weekly decrease of 1.19%. The main contract PR2509 for bottle tablets fell 8 yuan to 5908 yuan/ton in the evening session, with a decrease of 618 lots in holdings and a strong bearish sentiment in the market. The prices of crude oil and raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol have declined, coupled with low downstream willingness to receive goods, resulting in multiple price reductions of 20-50 yuan/ton for factories.
In terms of supply and demand, PET supply side production cuts have been gradually implemented. Leading enterprises such as Wankai New Materials, Yisheng, and China Resources have jointly reduced production by 20%, involving a production capacity of 2.59 million tons (including 4.9 million tons of long-term shutdown equipment). It is expected that the operating rate will decrease from 89.3% to 77%. However, the initial supply contraction has not been transmitted to the spot market, and inventory pressure remains high. The demand performance is weak, and the supply and demand are slightly deadlocked. The operating rate of soft drinks remains at 80% -90%, but the inventory of end products is high, and the replenishment of inventory is only sporadic small orders for essential needs, without any driving force to chase after price increases. The export volume in May was 619000 tons (month on month+38200 tons), but the increase in shipping costs and the suppression of the US anti-dumping tariff of 125% increased.
Overall, Shengyi Society believes that the PET market price may experience a narrow adjustment in the short term. Focus on the execution of key production cuts, cost fluctuations, and demand recovery in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, there has been a slight rebound in lithium carbonate recently. As of July 1st, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in China was 61666 yuan/ton, up 2.44% month on month and down 38.33% year-on-year; The benchmark price of domestic industrial grade lithium carbonate trading company is 59466 yuan/ton, up 0.9% month on month and down 37.67% year-on-year.
Two major policies are being implemented to drive up prices
On June 26th, the General Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the implementation plan for deepening the green and low-carbon standardization of industry and information technology, proposing to promote the formulation and revision of more than 100 standards in the field of green and low-carbon by 2027, gradually improve the standard system, further enhance the efficiency of standardization work, and release positive policy signals to the new energy market.
On June 26th, the National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference for June, during which it was proposed that the commission will work with relevant parties to make the consumption of new energy a key focus of the construction of a new energy system, deeply implement support policies for various links such as power generation, transmission, and regulation, and continue to promote the high-quality development of new energy.
The fundamentals remain bearish
Due to price rebound, there is a trend of production recovery on the supply side.
The demand side is basically stable, with a flat performance. Although the battery side production has increased, the demand growth rate is not as fast as the supply side increment.
The data analyst of Business Society’s lithium carbonate believes that although there is a slight rebound trend in the price of lithium carbonate, the fundamentals are difficult to support further price rebound. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to fluctuate weakly in the near future, and specific market changes still need to be monitored.

1、 Price trend
According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall downward trend of caustic soda in June. At the beginning of the month, the average price of caustic soda in Shandong region was 885 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the price of caustic soda in Shandong region was 835 yuan/yuan, a decrease of 5.65% and an increase of 5.16% compared to the same period last year. On June 29th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 784 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 44.00% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and up 31.10% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to survey data from Shengyi Society, the overall price of caustic soda is declining. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 760-850 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 870-950 yuan/ton in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of 2700-2800 yuan/ton (converted to 100%) in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. This month, the price of caustic soda has declined, with no significant fluctuations in the supply side of Shandong region. Alumina is mostly purchased on demand, and non aluminum deliveries are clearly cautious. The main downstream procurement prices have been lowered, and there is no positive support for caustic soda prices.
Business Society analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been weak, and downstream demand in China has been average. The overall inventory level of enterprises is not high, and the main demand is for replenishment. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a stable operation in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.