The core characteristics of the domestic sulfur market this week can be summarized as “emotional collapse, cliff like decline, and resonance formed by negative feedback from both internal and external markets
1、 Market Direct Strike: Price Cliff like Diving
1. Sharp decline: On October 13th, the benchmark price was still at 7179 yuan/ton, but on October 19th, it dropped directly to 6076.75 yuan/ton. The weekly decline exceeded 1100 yuan/ton. Especially on October 15th (a daily drop of 6.94%) and October 19th (a daily drop of 8.65%), there were two panic selling incidents.
As of October 20th, the benchmark price of sulfur was 6076.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.93% compared to the beginning of this month (7685.67 yuan/ton). In half a month, the market value has dropped by more than one-fifth.
3. Sudden decline in position: The table shows that on October 13th, the one-year position was still in the “middle” range. After only one week, on October 19th, the one-year position dropped directly to the “middle low” range, and all short – and medium-term positions such as 10 days, 20 days, and 30 days fell to the “low” range.
In depth analysis: Why did the domestic market fall so badly this week?
The collapse of the domestic market this week is the result of the dual impact of international cost collapse and the freezing point of domestic demand:
1. The cost support of international stocks collapsed, and this week, the official prices in the Middle East (Qatar 835, Kuwait 820) and spot prices (CFR China 860-880) were significantly lowered across the board. The shift from “raising prices” to “lowering prices for shipments” in foreign markets has directly drained the confidence of domestic port traders in raising prices.
On the demand side, there is a “quiet trading” and negative feedback erupts. The operating rate of downstream phosphate fertilizers (monoammonium and diammonium) has dropped to a low of over 40%, and the company’s profits have suffered severe losses (theoretical losses exceeding 1000 yuan). Faced with high priced raw materials, downstream customers choose to “lie flat” and refuse to accept goods, leading to a collapse of the mentality of the holders and a stampede style price reduction and dumping of goods.
4、 Outlook for the future: “Game and Bottom Search” after the sharp decline
Although the market has been extremely volatile this week, the current market is entering a new phase of competition:
1. There is still downward momentum in the short term: the market is extremely weak, the moving average system has not been repaired, external downward pressure is still being transmitted, and high-level inventory still needs to be digested.
2. However, the “resistance style” bottoming out is about to emerge: currently, prices have fallen to the “low” range, and low-end transactions in some regions of China (such as Shandong) have begun to improve. Some businesses believe that the low level is expected to consolidate upwards. With the gradual start of domestic phosphate fertilizer winter storage and demand at the end of October, coupled with the long-term low inventory background caused by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, it is highly likely that prices will face a situation of “intensified long short divergence, low-level oscillation and bottoming out” after a sharp decline.
In summary, this week’s domestic sulfur was hit hard by both external price reductions and downstream non buying, with a 20% evaporation in a week being an emotional release; Now that the price has fallen into the low zone, although the overall trend is still downward, the most panicked period of sharp decline may be coming to an end, and the market will enter a period of differentiation and bottoming out, with low-end trial buying and high-level replenishment.

1、 Price trend
As of October 16th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 6366 yuan/ton. Today, the structural differentiation of precipitated white carbon black in China continues, and the general rubber grade supply is sufficient, resulting in a narrow and weak price fluctuation; High dispersion tire specific white carbon black and gas-phase white carbon black remain strong, with brand price differences continuing to widen. General purpose precipitated white carbon black mainstream factory price ranges from 6350-6420 yuan/ton, and on-site transactions are mainly based on long-term contracts for essential needs. Traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude and low willingness to speculate and stock up.
2、 Market analysis
Operating rate: The overall operating rate of the industry remains at a medium to high level, with stable operation of top factories and operating rates ranging from 75% to 82%; Small and medium-sized manufacturers can flexibly adjust the load according to orders, and the load of general grade production lines has been reduced, giving priority to ensuring high dispersion tire grade orders. The overall inventory shows differentiation, with ordinary precipitated white carbon black enterprises having high inventory and significant pressure to reduce inventory; High end modified and gas-phase white carbon black have low inventory and tight delivery cycles. There is currently no large-scale centralized maintenance plan in the short term, and the overall supply side is abundant.
Upstream costs: The supply of sodium silicate (sodium silicate), the core raw material for precipitated white carbon black, is sufficient, and the price is stable but slightly weak. There is significant pressure on the shipment of raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market fluctuates within a certain range, with slight fluctuations within the region and no obvious unilateral market trend. The prices of soda ash and quartz sand are stable. The cost of steam and industrial electricity remains stable. Overall, the support of upstream raw material costs is weak, and the cost pressure on production enterprises is not significant, but there is a lack of cost drivers to increase prices.
Downstream demand: There is a clear differentiation in the strength of downstream demand. In the tire industry, traditional replacement tire production is average, and finished product inventory is high. Tire companies have a strong willingness to control costs, and procurement remains on-demand. The formula for new energy green tires continues to promote the use of white carbon black instead of carbon black, and high dispersion brand long-term contract orders remain stable, forming strong support. The weak demand for shoe-making and ordinary rubber miscellaneous parts, insufficient orders from product companies, and reduced procurement to lower prices have dragged down the general white carbon black market. The demand for special white carbon black in the fields of silicone rubber, coating extinction, and daily chemical products is still acceptable. The orders for gas-phase white carbon black are stable, but the overall downstream cost transmission is not smooth. The enthusiasm for purchasing ordinary grades is insufficient.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that in the short term, the market for white carbon black will continue to diverge, with general precipitation grades operating weakly and steadily, limited room for price fluctuations, and high dispersion tire grade and gas-phase white carbon black remaining strong. In terms of negative factors, general white carbon black has overcapacity, and traditional rubber product demand is unlikely to have a significant rebound. Inventory pressure continues to suppress prices, and downstream tire companies maintain low inventory procurement, making it difficult for centralized replenishment to occur. On the positive side, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase, and green tires drive the long-term increase of high-end white carbon black. If the industry focuses on maintenance in the later stage, it is expected to temporarily tighten the supply of high-end brands.

As of October 14th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 10633.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.16% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on October 1st, which was 10016.67 yuan/ton; Compared to January 1st at the beginning of the year, the price of phthalic anhydride increased by 5966.67 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 78.21%. After the holiday, the price of phthalic anhydride rose strongly. In October, phthalic anhydride showed a pattern of supply contraction driven and slight increase, and the price completely reached the 10000 yuan mark; The supply is tight, and downstream demand is weak to keep up. Phthalic anhydride belongs to a structural market of “strong supply, weak demand”, and the sustained upward momentum of phthalic anhydride is questionable.
The cost of raw materials has skyrocketed
The rise in crude oil prices is transmitted downstream, and the core driving force behind the current rise in phthalic anhydride comes from the comprehensive increase in raw material costs. In terms of ortho xylene, prices are showing an accelerating upward trend. On October 9th, the price of ortho benzene was increased by 200 yuan/ton to 9950 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, and on October 12th, it was further increased by 200 yuan/ton to 10150 yuan/ton. The continuous shortage of ortho benzene supply, low inventory in refineries and ports, and strong willingness of holders to raise prices. The significant increase in the cost of neighboring phthalic anhydride has supported the price increase of phthalic anhydride factories.
Tightening of phthalic anhydride supply
The maintenance and parking of the equipment are relatively concentrated. The overall operating rate of the industry has dropped to 52%, with a decrease in the quantity of goods in stock. Manufacturers’ inventories are low, some companies are oversold, and orders are limited. The supply of spot goods has tightened, supporting an increase in quotations.
Insufficient incremental demand for phthalic anhydride
The downstream plasticizer industry is the main consumer area of phthalic anhydride, and the overall plasticizer market has risen this month, providing certain demand support for phthalic anhydride. However, the operating load of plasticizer enterprises has shown a slight downward trend, with downstream demand mainly focused on rigid procurement and phthalic anhydride procurement on demand, resulting in limited incremental demand pull. The decrease in operating load of plasticizer enterprises has weakened the support for phthalic anhydride demand, and the price increase is more driven by the cost side rather than the demand side. The demand for phthalic anhydride is insufficient, and the willingness to chase up phthalic anhydride prices is poor.
Future forecast
Analysts believe that there will be more maintenance and supply tightening of phthalic anhydride equipment after the holiday, but downstream production will decrease and demand for phthalic anhydride will be weak. Phthalic anhydride will fluctuate and rise, but the sustainability of the rise is insufficient. In the future, the short-term phthalic anhydride maintenance equipment has not been fully restarted, and the tight supply pattern continues. Phthalic anhydride prices are mainly fluctuating at high levels, but there is limited room for further significant upward movement. Prices remain firm, and negotiations for discounts on actual orders have increased. Late October: As the maintenance equipment gradually resumes production, the supply increment is released; With the gradual weakening of downstream terminal demand and the easing of tight supply-demand balance, there is a risk of a downward pressure on the price center. Downstream maintenance of essential procurement, it is not recommended to stockpile goods in large quantities at high levels; The trading side is cautious in chasing the rise, focusing on tracking the progress of equipment resumption, DOP start-up, and ortho xylene prices.

On October 12th, lithium carbonate experienced a intraday decline of 5.8%, falling to 114000 yuan/ton, reaching its lowest point of the year. At the same time, the main lithium carbonate contract 2701 (LC2701) on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange opened at a low of 115500 yuan/ton, and briefly hit the limit down during trading, with a low of 104680 yuan/ton. The final closing price was 104740 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 11.79%, setting a new low for the year and the first time since December 19, 2025 that it closed below the 110000 yuan/ton mark.
Supply increment expectation, peak season demand falsification resonance
On the supply side, news of the resumption of lithium mining production in China has landed intensively, and the expectation of long-term incremental growth has suddenly strengthened.
On October 11th, Jiangte Electric announced that the company had received the “Review Opinion on Safety Facilities Design for the 3 Million Tons/Year Mining Project of Qiankeng Lithium Mine in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province” issued by the National Mining Safety Supervision Bureau, and agreed in principle that its safety facility design had passed the review. As a result, Qiankeng Lithium Mine has entered a key stage of construction in accordance with the law. The theoretical annual production capacity of the mine is about 15000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent.
At the same time, the world’s largest single lithium mica mine, Jianxiawo Lithium Mine, has restarted the approval process after its environmental impact assessment was revoked. Its full production capacity can reach 100000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent per year.
Overseas, the shipment of lithium concentrate from Zimbabwe is gradually resuming, and the production of lithium mining projects in Brazil is also being replenished. The key lies in timing mismatch: most of these projects will not form actual production until 2027 or later, and the increment itself does not change the current spot balance, but directly lowers the valuation center of the far month contract.
Demand side: Insufficient quality during peak season, further disturbance caused by export policy expectations.
In September, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.084 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.7% and a month on month increase of 7.8%; From January to September, the cumulative retail sales were 7.758 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 12.8%.
On the overseas front, the EU plans to set an annual import cap of 350000 hybrid vehicles for non European countries. The measure will take effect as early as December 1st, with 350000 vehicles in the first year and an annual increase of 6% from the following year, for a period of four years; The Chinese side has clearly opposed replacing multilateral rules with “voluntary export restrictions”, which has undermined market confidence in the sustainability of demand for lithium iron phosphate.
Overall, this round of decline is a switch in pricing anchors, rather than a collapse of real supply and demand. The news on the supply side changes the expected supply after 2027, while the data on the demand side changes the assumption of next year’s demand growth rate. The far month contract completes valuation compression ahead of schedule while spot prices remain tight. This also explains why the drop in spot prices during the same time period is less than half that of futures prices. Currently in the peak demand season, the supply and demand pattern remains tight, and market support still exists. It is expected that prices will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

From October 1st to 10th, MTBE prices rose from 8012 yuan/ton to 8350 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.21% during the period, a month on month increase of 7.04%, and a year-on-year increase of 62.93%.
The domestic MTBE market has fluctuated and risen. During the National Day holiday, the domestic MTBE market showed a fluctuating upward trend, with many manufacturers concentrated on delivering for export. The domestic spot circulation was in a tight position, and coupled with the continued signing of export orders, raw material prices remained high. After the holiday, the trend in the crude oil market was good, and coupled with the continued high cost of raw materials, the transaction center further shifted upward.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: the international oil price has fallen, and the main negative factors are the maintenance of communication in the US Iran negotiation channel and the expectation of easing geopolitical tensions. The possibility of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve has added pressure to the oil market.
On the demand side and downstream side, international crude oil futures first rose and then fell, while the refined oil market weakened and declined. During the National Day holiday, restrictions on the movement of hazardous chemical oil tankers were imposed on highways in various regions, leading to transportation difficulties. In addition, during the holiday period, many downstream businesses were digesting their previous inventory, resulting in poor overall shipment performance for refineries. The low production and sales figures for several consecutive days led to overall inventory growth, and oil prices in the region were under pressure, resulting in a sluggish market buying and selling atmosphere. The MTBE demand side is affected by bearish factors.
Supply side: Expected supply may increase. The supply side of MTBE is affected by negative factors.
As of the close on October 9th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $43.29/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $1168.99-1170.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $3/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $1761.49-1761.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $22.03/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $1611.80-1612.15/ton (455.10-455.20 cents/gallon).
Market forecast: Some large manufacturers still focus on delivery and export, with limited domestic sales and high raw material prices, resulting in huge cost pressures. MTBE manufacturers have a strong intention to raise prices, and analysts believe that the MTBE market is mainly consolidating at a high level.