In March 2026, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber market emerged from a unilateral strong upward trend, and the price center shifted significantly upward. According to data monitoring by Shengyi Society, as of March 24th, the benchmark price of domestic styrene butadiene rubber market reached 17516 yuan/ton, a cumulative increase of 33.29% from 13141 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have raised concerns about global crude oil supply, and the high international oil prices have directly pushed up the cost of refined products. As the core raw material of styrene butadiene rubber, butadiene has been affected by the reduction of overseas cracking units, the increase of export orders, and the tightening of domestic spot circulation, resulting in a continuous rise in prices. Coupled with the synchronous rise in styrene costs, the cost pressure on styrene butadiene rubber production enterprises has increased sharply, and some completely outsourced raw material enterprises have fallen into losses, forced to significantly raise factory prices, becoming the core driving force behind price increases. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 24th, the price of butadiene was 16766 yuan/ton, an increase of 67.78% from 9993 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of March 24th, the price of styrene was 10590 yuan/ton, an increase of 38.69% from 7636 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
During the month, some domestic styrene butadiene rubber production enterprises have reduced their load operation of their equipment, and some enterprises have maintenance plans in the later stage. The overall operating rate of the industry is low, and the available market supply continues to decrease. At the same time, the inventory of production enterprises remains low, and suppliers have significantly increased their supply prices, further supporting the upward trend of market prices.
Supply and demand side: Since March, downstream tire production has gradually increased, providing essential support for the styrene butadiene rubber market. As of March 19th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has reached around 7.8%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has reached about 70%.
Market forecast: In the short term, the styrene butadiene rubber market will maintain a high range oscillation trend, with a low probability of a significant decline. On the cost side, geopolitical conflicts are difficult to completely alleviate in the short term, and crude oil and butadiene prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall. Cost support remains stable; On the supply side, the maintenance plan for some devices continues, and the tight market supply pattern has not changed, which has formed a bottom support for prices.

Since March, the domestic formaldehyde market has shown a trend of strong cost support, increased export momentum, loose and controllable supply, and strong demand. Driven by the significant increase in the price of raw material methanol, the overall fluctuation of formaldehyde prices is relatively strong, combined with an increase in export demand, forming a dual benefit. However, the constraint of weak downstream traditional demand is still quite obvious, and the market’s long short game situation is prominent, presenting a structural characteristic of “strong cost, weak demand” as a whole.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 23, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was reported at 1262 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 22.87% compared to the beginning of the month.
Raw material side: Methanol prices have risen significantly, and cost support has been fully utilized
Methanol is the main raw material for formaldehyde production, and its price fluctuations directly determine the direction of formaldehyde production costs. The significant increase in methanol prices this month, on March 20th, saw a surge of 42.73% from the beginning of the month to 3140 yuan/ton in Shengyi Society. The pressure of price increase continues to spread to the formaldehyde industry chain, driving formaldehyde factories to passively follow the price increase.
In the short term, the geopolitical premium of methanol still exists, and the tight supply situation is difficult to quickly ease. It is expected to continue to provide strong cost support for the formaldehyde market, and the downward space for formaldehyde prices is limited.
Export end: Demand continues to rise, easing domestic supply pressure
The demand for formaldehyde exports continues to grow, becoming an important force in driving market demand and alleviating domestic supply pressure. According to the latest data released by the customs, formaldehyde exports in January and February 2026 have laid a good growth foundation, and the export momentum continued to release in March, showing an overall benign trend of “year-on-year increase and month on month stable growth”. Specific data shows that in January 2026, China’s formaldehyde exports reached 236.3 tons, a significant increase of 106.74% year-on-year, with an export value of 962451 yuan; The export volume in February was 124.47 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.64%, with an export amount of 489681 yuan. Despite the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in February, the export volume has declined compared to January, but it still maintains positive growth year-on-year. Coupled with the recovery of domestic production and smooth logistics in March, the export volume is expected to significantly rebound compared to February, further optimizing the domestic formaldehyde supply and demand balance.
The continuous increase in export demand has effectively digested some domestic production capacity, eased domestic supply pressure, and provided certain support for formaldehyde prices. This, combined with the rise in raw material prices, has created a dual benefit, jointly driving the strong volatility of the formaldehyde market this month.
Supply and demand fundamentals: overall loose and controllable supply, weak traditional demand
Supply side: Formaldehyde supply remains stable, overall loose and controllable, the total supply can meet market demand, and there is some room for adjustment, with no obvious supply gap. With the rise of temperature, the production enthusiasm of enterprises has increased, and the supply has gradually increased. However, the overall supply is relatively loose, which has formed certain constraints on the upward trend of prices.

In terms of demand, the support level is average and has not effectively responded to the cost increase, becoming the core factor restricting the significant rise in formaldehyde prices. The artificial board industry, as the largest consumer market for formaldehyde, has shown lackluster demand this month. Affected by the adjustment of the real estate industry and the mandatory upgrading of standards for artificial boards (E1 level elimination, E0/ENF level popularization), the consumption of formaldehyde per unit of board has decreased. Coupled with the fact that the spring decoration season has not yet fully started, artificial board companies have started production in a flat manner, with a mild willingness to receive goods and a multidimensional demand for essential purchases, which has limited driving effect on formaldehyde demand. The adhesive industry is affected by the sluggish demand for terminal real estate, and the demand is also showing a weak trend, further dragging down the traditional demand for formaldehyde.
comprehensive judgment
In the short term, methanol prices will continue to remain high due to the impact of the geopolitical situation, and formaldehyde cost support will continue to exist. Coupled with steady growth in export demand, it is expected that the formaldehyde market will maintain a strong and volatile trend, and the price increase depends on the fluctuation of methanol prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PTA market fluctuated at a high level this week (March 16-20), first rising and then falling. As of March 20, the spot price of PTA in East China was 6673 yuan/ton, up 0.6% from the beginning of the week.
On the crude oil side, the issue of the US Iran conflict obstructing the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, and several oil producing countries near the Persian Gulf continue to reduce production. However, the market is concerned that the prolonged conflict will be detrimental to the economy and demand, and the weak characteristics of actual demand in the medium and long term are difficult to change. The upward momentum of oil prices has significantly weakened, but there is no sign of easing in the short term, and the supply gap still exists, providing stable support for oil prices. As of March 19th, the May settlement price of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $95.55 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures rose and the May settlement price was $108.65 per barrel.
From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, there will be no new production capacity injection in the PTA industry in 2026, and the industry’s production capacity is in a vacuum period, with no new pressure on the supply side itself. The significant increase in cost has led to a continuous decline in PTA processing fees, severely compressing the industry’s profit margins. Multiple PTA production companies have voluntarily reduced their equipment load or arranged for equipment maintenance. Currently, PTA operating loads are around 77%.
On the demand side, March is in the traditional “golden three” peak season of the textile and clothing industry, and downstream polyester factories are gradually increasing their operating rates. The demand for PTA is gradually being released, and there is still a willingness to replenish inventory at low prices. However, due to weak terminal demand and limited acceptance of PTA high prices, purchases under high prices are mainly for essential needs, making it difficult to form large-scale replenishment. Currently, priority is given to digesting low-priced raw materials that were previously hoarded.
Business analysts believe that there is still uncertainty in the geopolitical situation, with strong cost support. However, short-term maintenance facilities are expected to restart in the early stage, and downstream terminal demand is weak, resulting in negative demand feedback and dragging down the upward momentum of PTA. The short-term PTA market is fiercely contested, and the cost side remains the core influencing variable. It is expected that PTA prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level next week.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been fluctuating and consolidating recently (3.1-3.17). As of March 17, the spot rubber market price in China’s natural rubber market was around 16808 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.64% from 16916 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of March 17th, the mainstream price for 24 years of Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao latex in Qingdao area is 16700-16900 yuan/ton.
Recently (3.1-3.17), the price of natural rubber raw materials has risen. As of March 17th, the price of Thai glue was 73.00 baht/kg, an increase of 6.88% from 68.30 baht/kg at the beginning of the month. Yunnan and Hainan provinces in China are in a period of shutdown, with seasonal supply cuts for new glue. Thai glue prices remain high, providing strong cost support. But with Yunnan’s imminent opening in mid March, coupled with the continuous influx of low-priced imported goods from Laos with zero tariffs, market supply growth expectations are heating up, suppressing the upward space for prices.
Recently (3.1-3.17), natural rubber inventory has slightly decreased, with a slightly bearish impact on natural rubber. As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 677600 tons, a decrease of 0.34% from the beginning of the month, which was 679900 tons.
Supply and demand side: As of the week of March 13th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 77.71%; The operating load of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises is 70.22%. The domestic tire production has increased, and the demand for natural rubber has some support.
Market forecast: Natural rubber will still be in a supply-demand game and a high-level oscillation pattern. During the shutdown period, the strength of raw materials and the demand for tires supported the bottom of prices, but the expectation of cutting, high inventory, and export pressure limited the upward space. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the progress of Yunnan’s cutting, the clearance of inventory in Qingdao, and the impact of the Middle East situation on exports.

This week (March 9-13), the polyester bottle chip market experienced a strong upward trend, with a maximum daily increase of 13% and a weekly cumulative increase of nearly 30%. The intense market performance and rapid pace were unexpected by all parties in the market. At present, PET bottle flakes are in a complex pattern of multiple driving factors intertwined and resonating – the high volatility of crude oil on the cost side supports sentiment, major supply side factories concentrate on reducing production and tightening circulation, and the traditional peak season on the demand side steadily releases demand. The rare simultaneous upward momentum of the three forces has pushed the market out of the typical structural upward path of “upstream raw material pressure and downstream passive follow-up”. As of March 13th, according to the price data from Shengyi Society, the mainstream average spot price of polyester bottle chips in East China is 8965 yuan/ton.
1、 Cost side (core reason)
Geopolitical ‘black swan’ detonates cost nuclear bomb, causing a surge in crude oil/PX/PTA/MEG prices across the board
The extreme event of near interruption in the Strait of Hormuz is the “igniter” and core cost driver of this round of market trend. This is not an ordinary crude oil fluctuation, but a “supply crisis” where 20% of global oil supply is facing the risk of interruption, and the resulting cost increase is rigid and severe.
The latest data shows that the latest price of WTI crude oil is $92.70 per barrel, an increase of over 6%. This cost hurricane at the source is rapidly spreading downstream along the industrial chain, indicating that cost pressure is rapidly spreading downstream.
The processing fees of the bottle chip factory have been severely squeezed, and they can only passively keep up with the price increase and seal the plate to ensure profits.
2、 Supply side (driving a significant increase)
The production rate of bottle flakes is relatively low, with a significant decrease in production in February compared to the previous month. There is also a low inventory of spot goods and a shortage of low-priced goods.
Multiple large factories have closed down their sales and continuously adjusted prices, further tightening market liquidity.
Red ocean freight rates have skyrocketed, export quotes have been raised, and internal and external markets have resonated and risen.
3、 Needs and Emotions (Amplify Increase)
The peak season for beverages and packaging has started, with stable demand and strong buying sentiment. Downstream buyers are chasing orders and hoarding goods.
The traditional beverage consumption stocking season that began in March has provided a certain demand side absorption and time buffer for the current high prices. The existence of peak season demand has temporarily increased downstream tolerance for price increases and provided confidence for midstream traders to “buy up”, forming a short-term positive cycle. From the price data, the price of East China water bottle slices skyrocketed from 7030 yuan/ton on March 6th to 7800 yuan/ton on March 11th, and now approaches 9000 yuan/ton today, with a staggering weekly increase. Such a huge increase was achieved against the backdrop of peak season, partially confirming the supportive role of demand during peak season. At present, it is the traditional procurement peak season in March, and downstream beverage factories are stocking up for the upcoming summer consumption peak, providing a certain demand foundation for high prices.
Futures funds rose, with a daily limit up and consecutive large increases, driving up spot sentiment.
Future forecast
In the short term (1-2 weeks), before the crude oil situation becomes clear and the spot shortage subsides, the price of PET bottle flakes will remain strong and prone to rise but difficult to fall. But high prices have accumulated huge risks.
Mid term (end of March April): Beware of rising and falling back
• Risk points:
Crude oil/raw materials fall, cost support weakens
◦ Bottle tablet device restarts, supply rebounds
High price downstream resistance, weak demand for essential goods, chasing price increases and cooling down
Trend: If the raw materials weaken, there is a high probability that the bottle tablets will fall back and fluctuate