From June 3rd to June 12th, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell, with an initial market average price of 447020 yuan/ton. As of June 12th, the market average price was 410940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.07%.
Since June, the main contract of Shanghai tin has repeatedly turned back in the range of 390000 to 440000 yuan/ton. The price fluctuated within a wide range this week, with extremely fast direction switching and broad fluctuations being the core color of June.
Supply side
The resumption of tin mining in the Wa State of Myanmar has significantly fallen short of expectations. As of now, due to multiple factors such as operational restrictions, material approvals, and the arrival of the rainy season, the production capacity of the Manchurian tin mine has only been restored to 40% to 50% of its pre mining capacity; The rainy season from May to July further suppresses open-pit mining and transportation, resulting in limited incremental space in the short term. In April, China imported 5678 physical tons of tin ore from Myanmar, a decrease of 22% compared to the previous month, which was only about 36% of the monthly average level before the shutdown. On the Democratic Republic of Congo side, about 6% of tin exports from Bisie mine are obstructed. Indonesia’s refined tin exports in April decreased by over 50% compared to the previous month, and the increase in mineral tax rates to 20% has pushed up long-term costs. Multiple tightening measures on the supply side have established a rigid bottom support for tin prices.
demand side
AI computing power hardware drives tin demand growth, accounting for about 10%, with high price tolerance and clear long-term support. In terms of traditional demand, lead-acid batteries have entered the off-season, production and sales of photovoltaics and new energy vehicles have slowed down, exports of tinplate have significantly declined, and the recovery of consumer electronics is moderate. High priced tin suppresses spot purchases of solder materials, while downstream rigid purchases dominate and there is a weak willingness to replenish inventory. The demand for tin supports the bottom but does not chase up prices, putting upward pressure on tin prices.
comprehensive analysis
As of now, the tin price has gone through an extreme trend of “hitting the top, trampling, and rebounding”. In the short term, it has entered a tug of war between the suppression of the moving average and the bottoming out of demand, with volatility still the main theme; In the medium to long term, tight fundamentals and AI demand still support the upward shift of the price center, but in the short term, inventory and macro pressures need to be digested.

As of June 11th, the price of 0 # zinc was 24152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.25% from the zinc price of 24708 yuan/ton on June 1st.
fundamentals
At the macro level, multiple factors resonate to suppress emotions in the non-ferrous metal sector. The overall stance of the Federal Reserve’s June interest rate meeting is hawkish, coupled with the US May non farm payroll data exceeding expectations, the market is once again facing a combination of “strong employment+rising inflation”, and financial attribute pressure continues. The escalation of the situation in the Middle East has raised concerns about inflation and the risk of economic slowdown, with London zinc prices falling by about 1%, indicating a significant decline in market risk appetite.
Supply side: The current most solid support logic
The processing fee (TC) for zinc concentrate remains at a historically low level, and the pricing of domestic ore in June further declined compared to the previous month. The extremely scarce situation in the mining sector has seriously damaged the profits of smelting enterprises, with processing fees continuously bottoming out and by-product sulfuric acid prices falling. Most smelting plants have already fallen into substantial losses. The passive production reduction forced by this is being realized: the expected increase in centralized maintenance at the domestic smelting end in June has led to a tight output of refined zinc. In addition, LME zinc inventory continues to deplete, providing bottom support for prices.
Demand side: The current biggest suppression factor
With the arrival of the southern rainy season, terminal demand is gradually shifting into the traditional off-season. The operating rate of galvanizing enterprises has decreased, and the operating rate of die-casting zinc alloys has also declined, both at a historically low level. Downstream enterprises generally have a bearish outlook on the future market, maintaining the price of essential needs for procurement and a low willingness to replenish inventory. The terminal consumption sector also lacks highlights: the marginal driving force for the rebound in infrastructure investment growth rate is limited, while the production of automobiles and household appliances has negative growth, the real estate industry remains weak, coupled with a decrease in external demand risk appetite, and overall demand support is insufficient.
comprehensive analysis
The short-term trend has shifted towards weakness, with the market showing a downward trend after high-level fluctuations, but the downward space is constrained by the rigid support of mining shortages and smelting losses. The current market is in a game stage of macro bearish release and fundamental bottom support, and paying attention to 24000 yuan/ton is an important long short watershed. In the medium to long term, in mid to late June, it is important to focus on the substantial realization of the reduction in maintenance and production at the smelting end, as well as whether domestic inventory can continue to decline. These two factors will be the core catalysts for the stabilization and recovery of zinc prices.

Isooctanol prices fluctuate and rise in June
On June 8th, the price of isooctanol was 8133.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.09% compared to 7966.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Since June, several leading enterprises in Shandong have frequently raised their quotations, showing a clear willingness to raise prices and driving the market focus slightly upward. The isooctanol market is experiencing a mild upward trend.
Market forecast:
In June, the isooctanol price moving average rose above the 10 day price moving average and the 20 day price moving average. On June 7th, the 10th price moving average crossed the 20th price moving average, and the upward signal of isooctanol was strengthened, showing an upward trend.
From a one-year perspective, the current price of 8100 yuan/ton is in the historical high range, significantly higher than the low volatility zone from June to the end of 2025, and also higher than the annual average price of 7249.70 yuan/ton in 2025. On June 8th, the price was at a 20 day high and a 30 day low. The price of isooctanol is relatively high, and the driving force for a significant increase is limited.
Weakened support for high propylene costs
On June 8th, the propylene price was 8824.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.36% from the propylene price of 9037.67 yuan/ton on June 1st. The propylene market is currently in a bottoming out stage, and strong macro guidance provides a safety cushion for the market. The price of propylene is maintaining a stable pattern, and the market lacks upward momentum, resulting in continued cost pressure and downward pressure on isooctanol.
Adequate supply of isooctanol
It is expected to increase production capacity by approximately 1.14 million tons per year in 2026, with a total supply of 3.73 million tons. In May, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises decreased, resulting in a reduction in isooctanol supply and increased support for the rise in isooctanol prices.
Outlook for the future market
According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, the isooctanol market rebounded in June, but overall, the market still faces significant “high-level pressure” throughout the year. There is significant overcapacity in the industry, and with the concentrated release of new production capacity in June, inventory pressure may rapidly increase, becoming a key factor restricting future price upward space. The expected future price of isooctanol is expected to fluctuate and consolidate widely.

From June 1st to 5th, the domestic BDO price dropped from 8100 yuan/ton to 8303 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.21% during the period, a month on month drop of 4.95%, and a year-on-year drop of 1.25%. The supply and demand pressure in the domestic BDO market still exists, and the poor terminal demand has led to a continuous decline in downstream industry prices and increased cost pressure. Business owners have a bearish attitude towards purchasing and sales, and are negotiating to offer discounts on actual orders, resulting in a volatile downward market trend.
In terms of supply and equipment, there are frequent fluctuations in the equipment sector, leading to a decline in industry capacity utilization and an increase in supply side support. And the online auction transaction reached a high of 7950 yuan/ton, enhancing the supplier’s market stability mentality. The positive impact of BDO supply has weakened.
In terms of cost and calcium carbide, the domestic price of calcium carbide has decreased, and some production enterprises have accumulated inventory. In order to accelerate shipments, some enterprises are flexible in their shipments. In terms of methanol, the price of methanol continues to rise, and inland factories are concentrated in pre-sales and exceeding orders, which has hindered the transportation and loading of vehicles in many places. The downward trend in the raw material calcium carbide market and the upward trend in the methanol market have had a mixed impact on BDO costs.
On the demand side and downstream side, there is no significant improvement in downstream demand at the terminal. In the situation of supply-demand contradiction and poor cost transmission, downstream industries offer discounts and promotions, leading to a decline in market conditions in most industries. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
Future forecast: raw material calcium carbide will decline, methanol will fluctuate within a certain range, and BDO cost pressure will weaken. The downstream PBT and PBAT industries will experience a decline in load and a reduction in demand in the next period. Overall, BDO analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic BDO market will operate weakly.

From May 31st to June 2nd, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China rose, with an initial market average price of 424960 yuan/ton. As of June 2nd, the market average price was 442580 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.15%.
Entering June, tin prices continued their strong performance since the beginning of the year, and market attention increased significantly. On June 2nd, the main contract of Shanghai tin closed up more than 5%, reaching a high of 449960 yuan/ton, maintaining a high level of operation. The non-ferrous sector led the way in the tin direction, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up or significantly following suit. From the cumulative increase since the beginning of the year, Shanghai Tin has risen by about 33% this year, and LME Tin has risen by nearly 40%, with market trading sentiment continuing to heat up.
The following analysis from the supply and demand side: the bidirectional resonance between “rigid contraction of supply” and “structural explosion of AI computing power demand”
supply side
The three major producing countries are simultaneously facing supply reduction difficulties: Myanmar’s Manxiang mining area is constrained by factors such as civil explosive factory accidents and material approvals, with production capacity only restored to 40% to 50% of pre mining levels. In addition, the rainy season from May to July further restricts open-pit mining and transportation, making it difficult to see short-term growth; On the Indonesian side, the update of export licenses coupled with the government’s crackdown on illegal smelting resulted in a nearly halving of refined tin exports in April, and a further 32% year-on-year decrease in exports in May. At the same time, the highest royalty rate doubled from 10% to 20%, comprehensively raising the production cost of tin ore; In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the export of Bisie tin ore has been hindered due to the closure of the Goma port, coupled with geopolitical and public health disturbances, leading to uncertainty in approximately 6% of the global tin ore supply. Under the triple disturbance superposition, the tight logic of the raw material end continues to strengthen, and the cost transmission from the mining end to the smelting end continues to advance.
demand side
Tin, as a ‘computing power metal’, presents distinct differentiation: tin usage in high margin tracks such as AI servers and optical modules has surged and is not afraid of price increases, while traditional consumer electronics are cost sensitive and procurement is in a wait-and-see state. This kind of ice and fire game is forcing midstream and downstream enterprises to transform towards high-end. At the same time, global tin mines can only be mined for 15 years (12 years in China), but tin can be recovered and regenerated without damage. Top enterprises are laying out a “mining recycling regeneration” closed-loop, and recycling tin has become a strategic direction to overcome resource bottlenecks. What is even rarer than computing power itself is the underlying resources that support computing power – whoever can afford high priced tin will dominate the future of the industry chain.
comprehensive analysis
In the short term, upstream supply disturbances will continue to be the dominant force in tin prices, supporting the continued strong operation of tin prices. On the other hand, downstream electronic solder has entered the traditional consumption off-season, and some terminals are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards high prices, with spot transactions tending to be cautious. The short-term tin price is likely to maintain a high and wide range oscillation pattern. In the medium to long term, the supply-demand gap will continue to provide solid upward support for the tin price center.