Market Trend Overview
The trend of the propylene market this week is stable. As of April 2nd, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society is 8784.33 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month.
Open the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society’s spot trading platform, and you will find that the yellow price line is winding around the 10 day moving average of the red line and the 20 day moving average of the blue line, presenting a typical “high-level oscillation” pattern.
The current “one-year position” indicator shows a medium to high level. This indicates that although the current price has not broken through the previous high, it is still in a relatively strong area at a higher price point.
Behind this’ high-level consolidation ‘is actually the extreme tug of war between supply and demand:
Supply side: The operation of refinery facilities is relatively stable, although there are some expected maintenance, the overall supply has not experienced a cliff like decline, and the supply is relatively sufficient, suppressing the impulse for further price increases.
On the demand side, downstream derivatives such as polypropylene (PP) have shown average performance, and there is a strong demand for the purchase of raw material propylene, without a large-scale hoarding trend.
Simply put, it means that the upstream has a strong willingness to raise prices, while the downstream has a weak willingness to receive goods, resulting in a stalemate between the two parties.
Business Society System Prediction: Beware of Changes after “1-Year Overrise”
Based on the core data of the Business Society’s commodity market analysis system, it is necessary to pay attention to two key signals:
1. Warning signal on: The bottom of the system clearly indicates “1-year super rise”. This means that the current price is already in the high-risk zone of the past year. According to the mean regression theory, it is difficult for prices to maintain a long-term super high range, and downward pressure is accumulating.
2. Location score characteristics: Currently, the 10 day, 20 day, and 30 day location scores are all at a “medium high level”. According to the system logic, when the short-term and medium – to long-term moving averages show a “tangled” state and the position is high, it often indicates an increase in trend uncertainty.
Overall, the supply-demand game in the propylene market is expected to continue in the short term, with prices likely to remain in a high volatility pattern, fluctuating between 8500-9200 yuan/ton. In the medium term, with the gradual release of supply side increment, if there is no significant improvement on the demand side, the upward momentum of the market will gradually weaken, and we need to be vigilant about the risk of price correction. Focus on international oil price trends, changes in downstream plant operating rates, and overall market transactions in the future.

price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market quickly rose in March, with most spot prices of various brands showing significant increases. As of March 31st, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16516.67 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of+26.79% compared to the beginning of the month.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: Since March, domestic PC aggregation enterprises have experienced a mutual restart and maintenance. The overall load variation within the interval is relatively narrow, with an average operating rate fluctuating around 87%. The average weekly output at the end of the month is over 70000 tons. Although the load is relatively high, there is still room for supply contraction in the future due to maintenance plans for Cangzhou Dahua and Cohen Chuang in early April. Overall, the supply side’s support for PC is still acceptable.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic bisphenol A market has seen significant growth since early March. Affected by the severe fluctuations in international crude oil, the prices of phenol and acetone fluctuate at the same frequency. Subsequently, it will drive the domestic spot price of bisphenol A. At the same time, the increase in bisphenol A supply during the month is limited. As the end of the month approaches, crude oil continues to rise, and there is still room for bisphenol A to rise in the future market. There is a positive trend in supporting the cost value of PC.
On the demand side: The improvement in profitability of terminal enterprises is limited, and the load position of PC downstream factories is still average. The current PC price has risen to a relatively high level, and buyers are cautious about stocking up. Their willingness to continue building warehouses is not strong, and they have entered a wait-and-see stage. And international crude oil continues to fluctuate, pushing up the petrochemical industry and logistics costs, while driving up the resonance of bulk commodity prices. Although the atmosphere of PC market speculation has cooled down in the early stage, the current mentality of merchants is strong and they are trying to overvalue. Overall, the demand side provides moderate support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
After the domestic PC market rose in March, it sorted out. Affected by the continued geopolitical situation, crude oil and related products in the petrochemical industry chain have fluctuated at high levels, and upstream bisphenol A prices have surged and adjusted, with cost values synchronously transmitted to PC. Domestic PC polymerization plants have large and stable loads with small fluctuations, and the industry will undergo centralized maintenance in the future, with expectations of further tightening of supply. On site trading is mainly driven by basic needs, and buyers have a cautious attitude, taking as they please. At the end of the month, transactions are mainly small orders. It is expected that in the short term, the PC market may be affected by the dual positive effects of remote upstream leading the rise and supply tightening, and there may still be a possibility of stable upward movement.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 31, 2026, the morning market price of gold spot was 1019.24 yuan/gram, a decrease of 10.97% from the gold spot market price of 1144.88 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month (March 1).
On the 31st, the gold price slightly rebounded within the day. In terms of spot trading:
On March 31, 2026, Shanghai Gold Exchange quoted a benchmark price of 1016.94 yuan/gram for Shanghai Gold (gold ingots with a standard weight of 1 kilogram and a purity of not less than 99.99%; pricing contract) at noon; Compared to the benchmark price of 999.56 yuan/gram in the early trading of the 30th, it has increased by 17.38 yuan/gram (1.74%).
In terms of futures:
The main contract of Shanghai Gold on March 31, 2026, opened at 1023.80 yuan/gram and closed at 1020.10 yuan/gram, up 1.46% from yesterday’s settlement price of 1005.42 yuan/gram.
Reasons for the rebound of precious metal gold on March 31, 2026
On March 31, 2026, the precious metal gold market experienced a significant rebound, with spot gold prices steadily rising, ending the previous phase of correction and becoming an important node for the recent recovery of gold market sentiment. The rebound of gold this time is not driven by a single factor, but the result of the resonance of multiple factors such as macro policy expectations, geopolitical situation evolution, market capital flow, and long-term allocation demand. The core revolves around the safe haven and financial attributes of gold. The specific reasons are analyzed in detail as follows:
1、 The shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations has laid the foundation for a short-term weakening of the US dollar. Since March, the market’s expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy have undergone multiple rounds of adjustment. In the early stage, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East pushed up international oil prices, causing concerns about inflation rebound. The market once raised expectations of interest rate hikes, leading to a downward pressure on gold prices. In late March, there were signs of partial easing in the situation in the Middle East, with international oil prices falling from high levels and marginal easing of upward pressure on inflation. Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates have once again risen. The opportunity cost of holding gold is positively correlated with the level of interest rates, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has reignited, significantly reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and attracting capital to flow back into the gold market. At the same time, the US dollar index experienced a short-term decline after rising on March 30th. Gold usually shows a negative correlation with the US dollar, and the weakening of the US dollar directly enhances the investment attractiveness of gold, becoming the core short-term driving factor for the recovery of gold on that day.
2、 The structural easing of the geopolitical situation has led to an orderly release of safe haven demand. Since March, the Middle East conflict has continued to escalate, and the confrontation between the United States, Israel, and Iran has led to the obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, causing global energy supply shortages and market panic. However, due to the suppression of “inflation rate hike” expectations in the early stage of gold prices, there has been a deviation between safe haven demand and price trends. On March 31st, both sides of the conflict released signals of partial easing, and the market panic sentiment marginally eased, gradually releasing the previously suppressed demand for safe haven; At the same time, there are still concerns in the market about the long-term uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts. Central banks, institutions, and individual investors around the world have allocated gold as the “ultimate safe haven asset”, further supporting the recovery of gold prices and forming a dual support of “short-term sentiment repair+long-term safe haven allocation”.

3、 The central bank continues to make efforts in purchasing gold, providing long-term rigid support. In 2025, the global central bank’s gold purchases will reach a historical peak, and this trend will continue in 2026. China has increased its gold reserves for 16 consecutive months, and emerging economies are accelerating their “de dollarization” process, optimizing their foreign exchange reserve structure and reducing their dependence on US dollar assets by increasing their gold holdings. This global increase in central bank reserves provides long-term “ballast” support for gold prices and enhances the market’s long-term confidence in gold. The rebound of gold on March 31st is a concrete manifestation of the resonance between long-term support and short-term market sentiment. Combined with the significant correction of gold prices in the early stage, institutional bottom fishing funds continued to flow in, further promoting the recovery of gold prices.
4、 The combination of market sentiment repair and capital return. On the week of March 23rd, gold prices experienced their largest weekly decline in 43 years, leading to excessive panic in the market and gradually entering a phase of emotional recovery. On March 25th, the gold price experienced a violent rebound, and the recovery on March 31st is a continuation of this emotional repair. The stampede risk caused by leveraged trading in the early stage gradually subsided, and investment sentiment tended to stabilize. At the same time, the global economy is facing downward pressure from fluctuations in energy prices, and the volatility of traditional assets such as stocks and bonds is intensifying. As a traditional asset that preserves value and resists inflation, gold’s asset allocation value is further highlighted. The demand for allocation from institutional and individual investors has increased, and funds continue to flow into the gold market, providing solid financial support for the recovery of gold prices.
5、 The US dollar credit system is under pressure, strengthening the value of gold allocation. The current total federal debt in the United States has exceeded $39 trillion, the pressure of fiscal deficit continues to increase, the share of US dollar reserves has dropped to a historical low, and the credit foundation of the US dollar is facing challenges. In this context, central banks and investment institutions around the world have reduced their holdings of US dollar assets and turned to gold, a non sovereign credit asset, further increasing the long-term demand for gold. This allocation behavior based on concerns about US dollar credit echoes short-term policy expectations and market sentiment, jointly driving the recovery of the gold market on March 31st.
In summary, the rebound of gold on March 31, 2026 is the result of a combination of short-term policy expectations reversal, market sentiment repair, long-term allocation demand, and geopolitical game. In the short term, gold prices are expected to maintain a recovery trend based on safe haven demand and capital inflows; In the long run, the global trend of central bank gold purchases, changes in US dollar credit, and geopolitical developments will continue to dominate the gold market.

In March, polyethylene varieties all emerged from a market trend of “continuous rise+periodic correction+new highs”. According to the testing conducted by Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 6616 yuan/ton on March 1st and 9016 yuan/ton on March 30th, an increase of 36.27%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8633 yuan/ton on March 1st and 11416 yuan/ton on March 30th, an increase of 32.24%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on March 1st was 7317 yuan/ton, and on March 30th it was 9987 yuan/ton, an increase of 36.49%.
The core driving factor of the market: the resonance of cost surges and supply contraction expectations caused by geopolitical conflicts, where the cost side is the direct driving force and the supply side is strong support.
Cost side: The surge in crude oil prices has ignited the market, causing a sharp increase in cost pressure.
The soaring price of crude oil: In early March, the situation in the Middle East escalated, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz was blocked. International oil prices soared, directly pushing up the raw material cost of polyethylene. The strong support on the cost side was the first driving force for the market to start. The production costs of domestic oil to PE enterprises have significantly increased, prompting them to adjust their factory prices and drive up the spot market.
Supply side: Dual contraction of internal and external supply, exacerbating the mismatch between market supply and demand.
Blocked import sources: The Middle East is the source of nearly 50% of China’s polyethylene imports, and the shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz have increased, directly affecting the pace of Middle Eastern goods arriving at ports. The expectation of tight supply has directly pushed up polyethylene prices.
Domestic plant load reduction/shutdown: Some domestic PE plants have reduced or shut down due to raw material issues, and the substantial contraction of the supply side has further strengthened the logic of price increases.
Low inventory operation: Supply contraction combined with traders’ reluctance to sell, social inventory continues to decrease, and the market has a stronger ability to bear price increases under the low inventory pattern.
On the demand side: the stage is weak, but no significant suppression has been formed.
March is the traditional off-season for demand, and the recovery rate of downstream agricultural film and packaging enterprises is relatively slow. However, against the backdrop of rising costs and supply contraction, the impact on the demand side is weakened, and the market is more concerned about the shortage expectations on the supply side. Therefore, the weak demand has not changed the upward trend.
In the short term, the core logic supporting this month’s market has not completely dissipated, and the market is likely to maintain a high volatility pattern, but caution should be exercised against the risk of a pullback.
Supporting factors still exist: the situation in the Middle East has not yet eased, the expectation of supply contraction is still present, and the expected decline in PE imports to ports in April indicates continued supply side support.
Accumulated pullback risk: After a significant increase in prices, downstream companies’ purchasing willingness continues to weaken, and the resistance to high price transactions increases. If supply recovers or oil prices rebound in the future, the market may experience a temporary pullback.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 27th, the price of 0 # zinc was 23202 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.27% compared to the zinc price of 22686 yuan/ton on March 23rd.
The domestic zinc market has emerged from a trend of oscillating saw and then rising, with fierce game between long and short sides. Prices have not moved out of a unilateral trend, and overall show a pattern of narrow fluctuations and a strengthening trend at the end of the trading day. The market reflects both the support from the cost side and the reality of weak supply-demand stalemate.
This week, the zinc price is based on the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s main contract for Shanghai zinc and domestic spot 0 # zinc ingots as the core reference. The price fluctuations are in line with market sentiment and changes in supply and demand news, and the overall trend is stable. The recovery was completed in the late trading session.
raw material end
In terms of zinc concentrate supply, the resumption of production in domestic mines has accelerated, and the production of zinc concentrate in major production areas such as Yunnan has steadily rebounded. Coupled with sufficient imported ore sources, the market supply of ore is relatively loose. The difficulty of purchasing raw materials for smelters has decreased, and the bargaining space has expanded. The processing fee for zinc concentrate continues to rise, and this week the processing fee remains at 1500-1700 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 100 yuan/ton during the week. The increase in processing fees means that the profit margin of smelters has been restored, the shortage of raw materials has been completely alleviated, and zinc prices have lost the upward momentum brought by the shortage of mineral resources. There is no obvious positive stimulus on the raw material side, with loose supply and stable costs, which cannot provide strong upward momentum for zinc prices. This is also one of the core reasons for the sustained fluctuations in the mid week market.
Supply and demand side
The domestic zinc ingot supply side maintains a stable release, the operating rate of smelters remains high, and the production has steadily rebounded month on month. Against the backdrop of sufficient supply of zinc concentrate and rising processing fees, mainstream zinc smelting enterprises in China have shown high production enthusiasm. Except for routine maintenance enterprises, most refineries are operating at full capacity, and the market supply of zinc ingots continues to increase.
The downstream demand in the zinc market has shown a flat performance, and the traditional spring peak season recovery is not as strong as expected. The weak terminal consumption is the core factor suppressing the strength of zinc prices. The downstream of zinc ingots is mainly concentrated in the galvanizing industry, zinc alloy die-casting, batteries, steel anti-corrosion and other fields, among which the galvanizing industry accounts for more than 70%, and the demand trend directly determines the consumption of zinc in the market. In terms of galvanizing enterprises, downstream processing plants have steadily resumed work and production this week, but there has been no significant increase in terminal order volume. Downstream industries such as home appliances, automobiles, and steel structures have slow demand recovery, and galvanizing enterprises have maintained a median operating rate. Enterprises often adopt a strategy of on-demand procurement and buy as you go, with low acceptance of high priced zinc ingots. When prices are weak at the beginning of the week, they replenish on demand and wait and see immediately after prices rise. Large scale replenishment is rare, making it difficult to drive zinc prices to continue rising.
In terms of inventory, social inventory in the zinc market has accumulated slightly this week, and the magnitude of the accumulation conforms to seasonal patterns, which has a certain degree of suppression on zinc prices.
comprehensive analysis
In the short term, it is difficult for domestic zinc prices to experience a unilateral sharp rise or fall. In the future, we need to focus on the recovery progress of downstream galvanizing and die-casting industry orders. If terminal demand is concentrated and released, the surge in demand will break the deadlock of oscillation.