According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market has been consolidating in a narrow range recently. As of March 25th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6773 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% from March 6th.

Crude oil prices fluctuated upwards. On March 24th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.11 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $72.37 per barrel. The PX market has recently begun to pay attention to the benefits brought by routine maintenance in the second quarter.

The rise in crude oil and PX prices has provided certain price support for PTA, and the spot market is showing a rebound trend. On March 25th, the average market price in East China was 4889 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.98% compared to March 12th. Currently, PTA plant maintenance and restart are carried out in parallel, maintaining a tight supply and demand pattern and maintaining a destocking state.

The downstream yarn factories have stable shipments, with varying shipment situations for different categories, and market prices are adjusted based on the shipment situation. At the same time, the raw material inventory of the terminal factory is basically maintained, and the delivery is slow, so there are few new orders added, and the actual orders can be negotiated. The overall market mentality is cautious, with many small orders requiring replenishment.

Business analysts believe that downstream demand is slowly increasing, and the rise in raw material prices is supporting the cost of polyester staple fibers. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fibers may rise slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 21st, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 1923 yuan/ton, which is 2.45% higher than the reference average price of 1877 yuan/ton on March 17th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market has shown a strong upward trend. As of March 21st, the factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1850-1900 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1880 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1860 yuan/ton, in Hubei region it is around 1840 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1910 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

On the supply side, the urea market has seen positive transactions this week, with companies actively shipping and reduced inventory levels. Some enterprises have parked their equipment, resulting in a decrease in market supply. In terms of demand, the downstream operating rate has increased this week, and the new order volume has also increased. Agricultural demand remains stable, while industrial demand has significantly increased.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic urea prices have been running strong recently. At present, the market supply is tight and the demand side is well supported. It is expected that the domestic urea market prices will continue to rise in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the cost support of polyester filament is insufficient this week, inventory pressure is rising, and the price center has been sporadically lowered. On March 21st, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6900-7200 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8200-8400 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7200-7500 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost, OPEC+production increases, US tariff policies suppress demand, coupled with Iraq’s resumption of crude oil exports, international oil prices continue to be under pressure, weakening the cost support of the polyester industry chain. The prices of upstream polyester raw materials (PX, PTA, MEG) have all fallen across the board.

In terms of demand, the operating rate of downstream weaving enterprises remains stable, but insufficient new orders have led to weak procurement demand, and the average market production and sales rate is lower than expected. The production and sales rate of mainstream manufacturers is between 50-80%. The textile and clothing industry has entered the traditional peak season of “Golden Three and Silver Four”, but the actual release of orders is limited. Although some companies have tried to stimulate transactions through preferential promotions (such as a limited time price reduction of 500 yuan/ton), there has been no significant improvement in terminal textile consumption, and the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with inventory pressure still existing.

In terms of inventory, trading is sluggish, downstream users are cautious, and there is a need for replenishment. Actual transactions are rare, and the average production and sales of polyester are at 35.4%. The overall inventory is concentrated between 11-21 days; In terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 11-22 days, FDY inventory is around 9-21 days, and DTY inventory is around 10-22 days.

Overall, the price of polyester filament has fluctuated weakly this week, and in the short term, the price of polyester filament may continue to fluctuate narrowly. Business analysts believe that although the decline in upstream raw material costs is beneficial for profit recovery, high inventory pressure and slow recovery of terminal demand will still suppress the room for price increases.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 20, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 6683 yuan/ton. Compared with March 16 (reference price of n-butanol is 6640 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 43 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65%.

This week, the n-butanol market in Shandong, China, saw a slight increase and then stabilized. At the beginning of the week, some factories in Shandong region raised the ex factory price of n-butanol by 50-100 yuan/ton, while the n-butanol price of major factories in Shandong remained stable at around 6650 yuan/ton. During the weekend, the market in Shandong is mainly focused on consolidation and operation. As of March 20th, the reference price for n-butanol market in Shandong is around 6650-6700 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Market Factors

In terms of supply and demand: Currently, n-butanol factories are maintaining stable prices, actively shipping, and maintaining low inventory levels. The downstream demand market tends to restock at low prices, and a slight increase in demand has led to a narrow upward adjustment in market prices. However, overall stocking remains cautious, and the overall demand in the market has not improved significantly. Therefore, the upward adjustment in the n-butanol market during the week is limited.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere for n-butanol production capacity is relatively weak, and downstream demand is still in the recovery stage. There are signs of a game between supply and demand. According to the n-butanol data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong will mainly remain stable and operate, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

Recently (3.12-3.18), the market price of butadiene rubber has slightly increased. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 18, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 13860 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22% from 13830 yuan/ton on March 12. The price of raw material butadiene has slightly increased, while the cost of butadiene rubber remains weakly supported; The production of butadiene rubber has fluctuated slightly, and the pressure on the supply side still exists; The downstream production is basically stable, mainly providing support for the rigid demand of butadiene rubber. Recently, the supply prices of Shunding rubber suppliers have slightly rebounded, and merchant offers have slightly followed suit. As of March 18th, the mainstream prices of Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China were 13800-13950 yuan/ton.

Recently (3.12-3.18), the price of butadiene has slightly increased, with weak support from the cost of butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 18th, the price of butadiene was 11037 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% from 11025 yuan/ton on March 12th.

Recently (3.12-3.18), there has been a slight fluctuation in the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants, with overall construction around 7.0%.

Demand side: Downstream tire production is basically stable, mainly supporting the rigid demand of the butadiene rubber market. As of March 14th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 8.30%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.9% of the load.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, the price of butadiene will consolidate narrowly, and the cost support of butadiene rubber will continue to be weak; The temporary stability of downstream construction provides some support for Shunding Rubber, and overall, it is expected that the Shunding Rubber market will remain stable with a narrow range of consolidation in the later stage.