Recently, the price trend of domestic fluorite has remained stable and slightly decreased. As of the 7th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3136.25 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.24% compared to the 1st. The price trend of domestic fluorite has slightly declined.

Supply side: slight increase in fluorite production and easing of supply

The current game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises has slightly increased, leading to an increase in spot supply of fluorite. On the one hand, there is still tension in upstream mining, and outdated mines will continue to be phased out. In terms of adding new mines, mineral investigation work remains challenging. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, making it more difficult to start fluorite mines. The shortage of raw materials has restricted fluorite enterprises from starting operations. On the other hand, the operating load of domestic hydrofluoric acid is around 60%, and there is still a rigid demand for fluorite procurement. Some hydrofluoric acid enterprises have reduced production, and the demand for raw material fluorite has weakened. As a result, the high transaction price trend of fluorite has declined. However, due to the tight supply of raw materials, the fluorite market still has some support, and the price decline is not significant.

On the demand side: The price of hydrofluoric acid is declining, and the refrigerant market is sluggish

The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid has declined, and the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid discussed in various regions has dropped to 9400-9900 yuan/ton. Recently, some devices have been shut down for maintenance, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has slightly decreased. The order situation of manufacturers’ hydrofluoric acid is weak, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid market trend is not good. The high price of raw material fluorite and the poor demand for downstream refrigerants have caused serious losses for hydrofluoric acid production enterprises, and some hydrofluoric acid enterprises have reduced their production burden, There has been a decrease in demand for fluorite.

The market for downstream refrigerant products at the terminal is sluggish, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. Recently, there has been sufficient refrigerant supply, driving the domestic refrigerant R22 price to remain low. The load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and the domestic market performance is weak. Inventory digestion is the main focus, and procurement demand has not yet been followed up. Domestic R134a manufacturers operate at low loads, and the price trend of R134a is weak and stable. Currently, on-demand procurement is the main trend, while downstream enterprises are not operating high. Traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the demand for consumer orders has not yet warmed up. Market confidence is insufficient. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 24000-25000 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have not resumed production. Demand orders are still small, and the market is stagnant and declining. Overall, the refrigerant market is not good, The operating rate is less than 30%, coupled with a decline in the export market, resulting in weak domestic and external demand. The refrigerant market is sluggish, and the procurement of upstream raw materials is scarce, causing a slight decline in the fluorite market price.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry in the downstream, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in demand in emerging fields. It is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including Lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite anode, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand of new energy and semiconductor and other fields, fluorite applications have been supported to a certain extent.

Future Market Forecast: Although the supply of fluorite ore has not improved recently, the market price of hydrofluoric acid continues to decline, and there is a downward trend in the operation of hydrofluoric acid plants. In addition, the demand for the refrigerant industry has not improved significantly, and the refrigerant market is sluggish. Affected by bearish factors, Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that the price of fluorite will mainly decrease slightly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average factory price of ammonium sulfate in China on May 29th was 784 yuan/ton. On June 5th, the average factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 746 yuan/ton. This week, the price of ammonium sulfate decreased by 5.08%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate fell this week. The domestic market for ammonium sulfate is weak and has been sorted out, with limited export orders and no improvement in the market. The downstream composite fertilizer market is generally weak, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. This week, urea prices rebounded, which is laterally positive for the ammonium sulfate market. As of June 5th, the mainstream factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 630-690 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 730-780 yuan/ton.

This week, the downstream compound fertilizer market was volatile and organized, with slight fluctuations in the market. The trend of compound fertilizer raw material ammonium phosphate is not good, and the raw material urea has rebounded and risen, with acceptable cost support. Downstream replenishment is based on demand, with corn fertilizer orders being the main shipment, and new orders being negotiated for one more order.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to ammonium sulfate analysts from Business Society, the domestic ammonium sulfate market has undergone a slight adjustment in recent days, and domestic and international demand remains weak. Downstream restocking as needed, with a small amount of new orders traded in the market. Under the favorable situation of urea rebound, it is expected that the ammonium sulfate market will stabilize and consolidate in the short term.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the commodity analysis system of the business agency, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong Province dropped from 9460.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8960.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 5.29%. Weekend prices fell by 27.94% year-on-year. On June 4th, the isooctanol commodity index was 65.88, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 52.09% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 87.43% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Insufficient upstream support and weakened downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong have slightly decreased this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 6470.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6340.75 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.01%. Weekend prices fell by 21.53% year-on-year. The price of upstream raw material market fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of isooctanol was negatively affected.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the factory price of DOP has slightly decreased this week. The price of DOP dropped from 9817.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9560.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 2.62%. Weekend prices fell by 19.83% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices have slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol has weakened.

Future prospects

In mid to late June, the Shandong isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Downstream DOP market slightly declined, and downstream demand weakened. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isooctanol market may experience minor fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Product name: Yellow phosphorus

Latest price on June 2nd: 22900 yuan/ton

Key points for analysis: The price of domestic yellow phosphorus market rose on June 2. At present, many enterprises producing yellow phosphorus are reducing their production load, some of them are parking, delaying the driving time, and the on-site inventory is controllable. The market spot is relatively tight, and the price of yellow phosphorus has increased. Many manufacturers do not provide external quotations, and actual orders are discussed in detail. Downstream procurement is more cautious and can be taken as needed.

It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be relatively strong in the short term, and we will pay attention to changes in the news.

In the second half of the month, the domestic acetic acid market was operating in a weak state, with no pressure on enterprise inventory and maintaining active shipments. Downstream demand was average, and incoming purchases were followed up as needed. There were few new orders traded on the market, and operators were cautious in entering the market. Under the supply and demand game, the price of acetic acid was weak and stable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 31, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 3250.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.52% compared to the price of 3300.00 yuan/ton on May 16, and an increase of 0.52% compared to the beginning of the month. As of May 31, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions during the week were as follows:

The upstream raw material methanol market has fluctuated and declined. As of May 31, the average price in the domestic market was 2160.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.90% compared to the price of 2345.00 yuan/ton on May 16. Futures prices fell, raw coal prices declined, market confidence was insufficient, downstream demand was low, social inventory in the methanol market continued to accumulate, and with the continuous influx of imported goods, the price of methanol spot market was weak and downward.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is weak and declining. As of May 31, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5387.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.69% compared to the price of 5480.00 yuan/ton on May 16. The upstream acetic acid market is weak, the cost support for acetic anhydride is insufficient, and the downstream procurement of acetic anhydride is not good. A small number of transactions are followed up according to demand, and market negotiations are running, resulting in a decline in the price trend of acetic anhydride.

In the future market forecast, acetic acid analysts from Business Society believe that the supply of acetic acid in the market remains rational, enterprises actively ship, and downstream demand is average. The market trading atmosphere is light, and demand support is insufficient. The mentality of the industry is stagnant. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the acetic acid market will operate in the later stage, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.