This week, the domestic epoxy propane market showed a trend of high-level decline. As of August 12th, the benchmark price of epoxy propane in Shengyi Society was 9066.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.45% compared to the beginning of this month.
Raw material side: Cost support has been strengthened. This week, international oil prices fluctuated upward due to geopolitical factors, and the price of raw material propylene continued to rise. On August 11th, it closed at 8340 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from the previous day. However, the epoxy propane industry is still in a loss making state, with an average weekly comprehensive profit of -357.44 yuan/ton for the chlorohydrin method. The high cost and low selling price create a double squeeze. As of August 12th, the benchmark price of propylene was 8251.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.08% compared to the beginning of this month (7927.67 yuan/ton).
Supply side: The device surface fluctuates frequently. On August 11th, the utilization rate of domestic epoxy propane production capacity was only 60.25%. The growth of market commodity volume is limited.
Demand side: Poor downstream transmission is the core factor causing the price drop this week. The polyether market is in a mixed phase of peak and off peak seasons. Although the favorable supply of raw material cyclopropane has driven up prices, the high prices have weakened downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Downstream reduction follow-up, resistance to high prices, and weak trading atmosphere.
Comprehensive forecast: In the short term, the strong operation of raw material propylene still provides support for the cost side, but downstream demand follow-up is weak and high price resistance still exists. The market may continue to stabilize in the short term. Focus on the dynamic maintenance of equipment and changes in downstream procurement pace.

In early August, the overall formaldehyde market fluctuated and weakened, with a shift in focus. As of August 11th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was reported at 1228 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.25% from the beginning of the month.
Driving factor analysis
Cost side: Methanol drag reduces cost support
In the first half of the year, methanol spot prices fluctuated downwards, and formaldehyde lagged behind methanol’s decline. On August 6th, methanol’s decline reached its maximum stage, and then methanol quickly rebounded and recovered; However, the rebound of formaldehyde was weak and continued to decline, without following the rise of methanol. The main contradiction of formaldehyde has shifted from cost drag to demand suppression. Insufficient methanol reheating is not enough to pull formaldehyde, and the core constraint is the insufficient demand for downstream boards.
Demand side: Traditional off-season, low demand for sheet adhesive
July and August are the traditional off-season for formaldehyde, with artificial boards and urea formaldehyde resin adhesives being the largest downstream. High temperature, rainy weather, and typhoon weather have restricted the operation of sheet metal factories, resulting in insufficient orders for terminal furniture and decoration. Downstream factories only maintain essential procurement and do not actively replenish inventory; The demand for fine chemicals such as Urotropin remains stable, making it difficult to drive the overall market. There is no significant increase in the real estate sector, which has limited impact on the board industry chain and is the most critical factor in suppressing formaldehyde.
Supply side: slight contraction in production, moderate accumulation of inventory
Under high temperature weather, the operational risk of formaldehyde plants increases, coupled with profit compression, and some enterprises actively reduce their load; The increment of new devices is limited. Finished product inventory is slowly rising at a medium to low level, and there has not been a high inventory explosion yet. Manufacturers have a certain willingness to raise prices, but weak demand leads to weak price support.
Market forecast: In mid to late August, there will still be weak pressure and it is difficult to have a significant rebound; As the traditional peak season approaches in September, there is a marginal expectation of recovery, and the height of the increase depends on the actual recovery of methanol and sheet metal production.
1. Cost: The methanol market is in a volatile pattern, with imports arriving at ports, domestic equipment maintenance, and geopolitical news disturbances as the main factors. There is limited room for a sharp decline, but the upward driving force is not strong. The cost of formaldehyde is showing a neutral fluctuation.
2. Supply: If losses continue, formaldehyde companies will continue to reduce their losses, alleviate inventory pressure by reducing production, and suppress downward space; If there is no centralized maintenance, the supply of goods is still relatively sufficient.
3. Demand: It is still in the off-season of summer, and the sheet metal industry is unlikely to show significant improvement. Downstream suppliers will maintain on-demand procurement.
Judgment: Formaldehyde is highly likely to oscillate at a low level, with limited rebound force, and it cannot be ruled out that local areas may continue to explore slightly; The conditions for a significant increase are not met.

1、 Price trend
Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, the price of titanium dioxide in the domestic market has been lowered this week. The average price of titanium dioxide on Monday was 15460 yuan/ton, and the average price of titanium dioxide on the weekend was 14780 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 4.4%.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the domestic titanium dioxide market prices have been lowered. In terms of upstream raw materials, both sulfuric acid and titanium concentrate market prices have been lowered, while downstream markets are in a low season with sluggish market demand and low purchasing enthusiasm, resulting in a downward shift in the focus of the titanium dioxide market. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 14300-16000 yuan/ton; The price of the Ruiti type is around 12800-13200 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that the focus of the domestic titanium dioxide market will shift downwards this week. At present, there is still no significant improvement in demand in the terminal market, and the market is sluggish. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will be weak in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiable.

1、 Price trend
On July 31st, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 8725 yuan/ton, which is 9.11% lower than the reference average price of 9600 yuan/ton on July 1st.
On July 31st, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 8850 yuan/ton, which was 16.51% lower than the reference average price of 10600 yuan/ton on July 1st.
2、 Market analysis
market conditions
The domestic phosphoric acid market has experienced a high decline this month. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus first suppressed and then rose, while the price of raw material sulfur fluctuated, and the cost support is still acceptable. This month, the demand for phosphoric acid market is weak, downstream procurement intentions are cautious, and market transactions are sluggish. As of July 31st, the market price of 85% industrial thermal phosphoric acid in China is around 8200-10000 yuan/ton, and the market price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China is around 8300-10000 yuan/ton.
In terms of cost
Raw material yellow phosphorus market. This month, the yellow phosphorus market first fell and then rose, with overall supply being tight and downstream demand being average. Manufacturers mainly raised prices. Raw material sulfur market. This month, the sulfur market has fluctuated at a high level, with downstream procurement maintaining basic demand and average demand. The market’s upward momentum is limited.
3、 Future forecast
The phosphoric acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent trend of phosphoric acid market prices has been consolidating and operating. At present, the demand for phosphoric acid in the market is weak, and there is still support on the cost side. It is expected that the short-term domestic phosphoric acid market will mainly focus on consolidation and operation.

This week (7.27-31), PVC showed an overall trend of synchronous oscillation and decline. The short-term speculative market driven by the geopolitical premium of Middle Eastern crude oil in the early stage has completely receded, with weakened costs, slight rebound in supply, and weak demand for terminal building materials during the off-season forming a triple suppression. Spot prices have generally fallen throughout the week, and the focus of futures has continued to shift downwards; The high inventory level limits the rebound space, and market transactions maintain a weak and volatile market with weak supply and demand, loose costs, and a “buy down, not buy up” trend for essential needs.
1、 Futures market
On Monday (7.23), the closing price was 4618 yuan/ton; On Friday (7.31), the closing price was 4479 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of nearly 140 yuan/ton for the whole week. The lowest drop during the week was 4438 yuan/ton, and it has repeatedly broken the stage low point.
2、 Spot market
As of Friday, the mainstream in East China: the SG-5 model of carbide method was reported at 4420-4470 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions of the country generally fell this week, with a range of 80-120 yuan/ton. The SG-5 model of East China carbide method fell by 3.05% in the week. Traders offered discounts to sell, and downstream only needed small batches of replenishment without centralized stocking, resulting in light market transactions.
3、 Factor analysis
On the supply side, there has been a slight rebound in construction, with enterprises resuming work and the marginal increase in supply pressure
This week, the overall capacity utilization rate of PVC exceeded 70%, which continued to rise compared to last week. Centralized resumption of maintenance equipment and increased domestic supply of goods; The start of ethylene production has slightly declined due to fluctuations in ethylene costs, and coastal facilities have actively controlled production, still at a historical low.
Raw material cost: Electricity stone material is declining and the cost is weak
Calcium carbide: The price of calcium carbide has fallen, the supply of goods is sufficient, the upstream blue carbon is stable, and the willingness of calcium carbide manufacturers to ship is strong. The production cost of PVC by calcium carbide method has been lowered, and the pressure of enterprise losses has been slightly alleviated, lacking the driving force of strong price support on the cost side. Calcium carbide has experienced a significant decline, with a drop of up to 3.28% within the week.
Ethylene: Temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran, significant drop in international crude oil prices during the week, lower cost of ethylene raw materials, and synchronized decline in the cost of PVC produced by coastal ethylene methods; The profit of the ethylene plant has shrunk, but there is no upward support on the cost side, which cannot drive the price increase of PVC.
Demand side: Weakening of internal and external demand, market entering off-season
The domestic downstream product production has fallen across the board, and the downstream production rate this week is still relatively low, generally around 40%, significantly lower than the same period in history. The downstream real estate market is sluggish, and industries such as profiles and pipes are generally impacted. In addition, terminal doors and windows, as well as home decoration, have also been dragged down, resulting in a decline in upstream PVC demand. Terminal distributors are reducing inventory and generally slowing down raw material procurement.
In terms of exports, the data is flat, with no increase in inquiries from Southeast Asia and India. Domestic PVC export profits have slightly weakened, making it difficult for foreign trade to hedge against excess domestic supply. The role of exports as a bottom support is limited.
4、 Future forecast
According to PVC analysts, in the short term, on the supply side, there are still expectations of an increase in production, difficulty in improving off-season demand, and sustained suppression of high inventory; The cost side may form support, and the downward space in the later stage is limited. Due to weak demand, the accumulation of inventory is still ongoing. Overall, the main trend next week will be interval volatility, and it is difficult to see a one-sided market trend.