According to the monitoring of the business club, in May, LLDPE, LDPE and HDPE in East China all showed an upward trend of shocks, and the overall transaction atmosphere of the market was good. On May 31, the average ex factory price of LLDPE 7042 in East China was 6650.00 yuan / ton, up 5.56% in the month; the average ex factory price of LDPE 2426h was 7550.00 yuan / ton, up 3.07% in the month; the average ex factory price of HDPE 5000S was 7166.67 yuan / ton, up 1.65% in the month. In May, the increase rate of the three varieties of PE was mostly around 100-300 yuan / ton.
On June 1, LLDPE commodity index was 64.64, up 0.95 points from yesterday, down 45.02% from the highest point of 117.56 points in the cycle (December 11, 2013) and up 12.50% from the lowest point of 57.46 points on April 06, 2020. (Note: Period refers to September 1, 2011 to date)
The LDPE commodity index on June 1 was 60.12, up 1.37 points from yesterday, down 46.95% from the highest point of 113.33 points in the cycle (December 08, 2013) and up 10.76% from the lowest point of 54.28 points on April 06, 2020. (Note: Period refers to September 1, 2011 to date)
On June 1, HDPE commodity index was 58.49, up 0.4 points from yesterday, down 42.84% from the highest point of 102.33 points in the cycle (July 24, 2014) and up 7.44% from the lowest point of 54.44 points on April 06, 2020. (Note: Period refers to September 1, 2011 to date)
In May, the price of polyethylene market fluctuated and rose by about 100-300 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, the sharp rise in international oil prices, coupled with the rise in Liansu futures, boosted the market mentality. After the May Day long holiday, the market price rose significantly. Most petrochemical enterprises raised their factory prices. Businesses had a good mentality and some of them followed the increase in shipments. Downstream inquiries increased, the market entered the market with higher enthusiasm and the market transaction atmosphere improved. In the later period, CNPC implemented a batch sales policy in North and East China, lowering the guiding price. With the decline in international oil prices, the market mentality was suppressed. The traders were mainly short-sighted about the future market, and their enthusiasm for entering the market weakened. The market transaction atmosphere became weaker. The traders’ mentality became pessimistic. They were more active in allowing profits to stimulate shipments. Market prices entered the downward channel, with HDPE falling most obviously. Subsequently, the international oil price rose sharply and the plastic futures began to fluctuate, once again boosting the spot market. Most petrochemical enterprises raised the ex-factory price and the overall quotation rose until the end of the month.
In May, polyethylene market supply is currently in the PE unit overhaul season. Petrochemical units are being stopped for overhaul one after another. Some units, such as Fujian United and Dushanzi Petrochemical, are being overhauled. Market supply has decreased, bringing support to some parts of the market and the price is relatively firm. However, the second quarter is the low season of demand in polyethylene market, market consumption is weak, and affected by social public health events, downstream factories are recovering slowly, terminal demand continues to decline, and the market transaction atmosphere is relatively light, which restricts the upward trend of polyethylene price.
Raw material ethylene market rose all the way in May, bringing some favorable support to the polyethylene market. Recently, ethylene has shown an overall upward trend. Prices in the Asian ethylene market rose, with CFR Northeast Asia closing at US$ 715-725 per ton and CFR Southeast Asia closing at US$ 635-645 per ton as of the 28th. European ethylene market prices rose sharply. As of the 28th, European ethylene market prices were US$ 517-527/ton for FD Northwest Europe and US$ 488-496/ton for CIF Northwest Europe. Ethylene prices in the U.S. region remained stable, with a price of 255-267 U.S. dollars per ton as of the 28th. Generally speaking, the ethylene market in Europe and the United States was on an upward trend throughout May, especially in Europe and Asia. The trading atmosphere in the entire ethylene market was active and the market rose all the way, with a large increase, which was also related to the large decline in the ethylene market in the previous period. Operators pay more attention to the supply and demand situation after the holiday.
In terms of futures, linear futures surged in May, boosting the spot market mentality. On may 6, polyethylene futures L2009 opened at 6330, with the highest price of 6485, the lowest price of 6260, the closing price of 6450, the former settlement price of 6110, and the settlement price of 6370, up 340, or 5.56%, with a turnover of 422975, an open position of 352872, and a daily increase of 24497. (Quotation Unit: Yuan/Ton)
On May 29, polyethylene futures L2009 opened at 6585, with the highest price of 6615, the lowest price of 6515, the closing price of 6515, the former settlement price of 6515 and the settlement price of 6560, unchanged from the 28th, with trading volume of 427849, open position of 377239 and daily increase of -30876. (Quotation Unit: Yuan/Ton))
In April 2020, PE imports totaled 1,363,900 tons. Among them, LLDPE imported 406,900 tons, HDPE 696,700 tons and LDPE 260,300 tons. The export volume of PE is 22,400 tons, including 22,000 tons of LLDPE, 67,700 tons of HDPE and 13,700 tons of LDPE, with a cumulative export volume of 89,700 tons.
According to the business news agency’s price monitoring, in the list of commodity prices in may 2020, there were 13 kinds of commodities with rubber and plastic plates rising month on month, of which there were 6 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 35.3% of the monitored commodities in the plate. The top 3 commodities were ABS(13.62%), PC(13.22%) and PVC(12.26%). There were 4 kinds of commodities that declined month-on-month and 2 kinds of commodities that declined by more than 5%, accounting for 11.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The top 3 products were PP (fiber) (-8.82%), PA66(-5.53%) and cis-polybutadiene rubber (-1.12%). This month’s average rise and fall was 3.83%. On the whole, rubber and plastic plates are mostly rising, giving polyethylene a certain boost.
Looking at the future, facing the low season of traditional demand, and under the influence of public health incidents, downstream factories are recovering slowly, terminal demand is limited, and the market transaction atmosphere is sluggish. Although the petrochemical inventory is still at a medium-high level and the consumption will take some time, it is currently in the overhaul season, with more overhaul of petrochemical units and a decrease in market supply. Internationally, crude oil and ethylene both rose, with some support in terms of costs. In addition, the rise in wide-range volatility of linear futures also boosted the market. It is expected that polyethylene market will still have room for growth in June.