1、 Price trend
According to commodity data monitoring, yellow phosphorus market prices fell in March. At the beginning of the month, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 31500 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the average price was 30550 yuan/ton. During the month, the price decreased by 3.02%.
2、 Market analysis
Yellow phosphorus market prices fell in March. The manufacturer issues multiple early stage orders and does not quote externally. In the first half of the month, the market trading situation was light, the market wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, the buying enthusiasm was not high, high-end prices were difficult to close, and market prices were lowered. In the second half of the month, the supply and demand of yellow phosphorus market remained relatively stagnant, and prices were temporarily stabilized and consolidated. Some manufacturers in Yunnan have completed maintenance and significantly increased their supply, but the price of raw phosphate rock has increased. The manufacturers are relatively resistant to low-end prices, and most enterprises do not offer prices to the outside world for the time being, maintaining solid order negotiations. Up to now, the mainstream quotation is around 28200-32000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated on a single basis.
As for phosphate rock, up to now, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China is around 1180 yuan/ton, up 4.1% compared to March 1 (1074.00). At present, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock field is normal, and the spring planting season is approaching, and the terminal demand for phosphate rock will continue to recover. The phosphorus ore data analyst of the Business Agency believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mostly continue to operate in a stable, medium to strong manner, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in information on the supply and demand side.
In terms of coke, from March 10 to March 28, 2023, the coke market temporarily stabilized for two consecutive months, and as of March 17, the price of quasi first-class metallurgical coke in Shanxi was at 2482 yuan/ton, which was flat. Overall, the demand for downstream steel plants is still there, and the steady increase in supply by coke enterprises is still acceptable. It is difficult for coke enterprises to implement due to insufficient support for rising prices.
In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid fell in March. As of March 28, the average market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 8116.67 yuan/ton, which was 3.37% lower than the average price of 8400 yuan/ton on March 1. At present, the demand for phosphoric acid is low and the market is weak. The trend of raw material yellow phosphorus is stagnant, with phosphoric acid manufacturers and distributors mainly on the sidelines. In the absence of positive factors, it is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will continue to be weak in the short term, mainly through consolidation and operation.
3、 Aftermarket Forecast
Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that some yellow phosphorus manufacturers in Guizhou, Yunnan, and other regions have completed maintenance, restoring production and supply significantly increased. Downstream demand is weak, and procurement is mainly driven by low prices and rigid demand. The yellow phosphorus market price fell this month. However, towards the end of the month, the upstream phosphate rock price increased, and cost support was acceptable. Manufacturers are relatively resistant to low end prices, and most enterprises do not offer external prices for the time being. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will continue to remain stagnant in the short term, and the actual transaction will be subject to single negotiation.