1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda is weak, and the average price of Shandong market is 482.5 yuan / ton, down 16.81% compared with the same period last year. On January 25, the commodity index of caustic soda was 69.42, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 66.44% compared with 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 6.62% compared with 65.11, the lowest point on October 9, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the market of caustic soda is weak as a whole, the atmosphere of conversation is weak, and the overall transaction is flexible. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is weak, and 32% of the mainstream ex factory price of caustic soda is 400-530 yuan / ton. The price of caustic soda in Hebei is temporarily stable, and 32% of the mainstream ex factory price of caustic soda is about 470-580 yuan / ton. The downstream purchasing demand is general. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range finishing operation of caustic soda will be the main. The price of caustic soda in Henan Province is weak. The mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 1300-1500 yuan / ton (100%). The downstream purchase demand is general. There is a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak.

Demand: on the downstream side, the downstream industry is in the off-season of production, and the demand side lacks support. The good news is scarce, and the support for caustic soda market is still poor. It is expected that caustic soda will still maintain low-level operation in the short term. The purchasing of downstream enterprises is general, and the market price has little power to rise.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 03 th week (1.18-1.22) of 2021, there were 2 kinds of commodities rising, 1 kind of commodity falling and 2 kinds of commodities falling to 0. The main commodities rising were hydrochloric acid (2.74%) and PVC (1.97%); the main commodities falling were calcium carbide (- 3.05%). This week, the average rise or fall was 0.33%.

Analysts from the business community believe that in the near future, the overall supply of caustic soda is sufficient, the overall ex factory price of caustic soda is stable and small, the cost side changes little, and the downstream purchasing demand is general. There is a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. Although a few caustic soda manufacturers tentatively pull up the offer, the impact on the market is limited. It is expected that caustic soda will be sorted out later or in a narrow range, depending on the downstream market demand.

Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business association, cobalt Market stopped falling but rose this week, and cobalt market recovered. As of January 25, the price of cobalt was 311000.00 yuan / ton, up 0.76% from 308666.66 yuan / ton on January 17. Cobalt prices stopped falling and rebounded this week.

Cobalt salt price

Varieties / specifications ﹣ quotation market / region ﹣ quotation on January 25 ﹣ quotation on January 1 ﹣ rise and fall ﹣ unit

Battery grade cobalt sulfate (cobalt content ≥ 21%) Huayou cobalt Co., Ltd. $75000, 61000, 14000 / ton

Co3O4 (cobalt content 73% ± 0.3%) Huayou cobalt Co., Ltd. (?) 266000 218000 48000 yuan / ton

Cobalt oxide (≥ 72%) in Shanghai: 243500-253500-205000-215000 38500 yuan / ton

Cobalt sulfate (≥ 20.5%) made in China: 66000-69000 56000-59000 10000 yuan / ton

Cobalt chloride (≥ 24.2%) made in China: RMB 76000-80000; RMB 65500-69000; RMB 10750 / T

Co3O4 (≥ 72.8%) made in China: RMB 243000-260000, RMB 209000-217000, RMB 38500 / T

Cobalt carbonate (≥ 46%) made in China: 136000-146000 125000-135000 11000 yuan / ton

Lithium cobaltite (60%, 4.35v) made in China: RMB 250000-268000, RMB 222000-235000, RMB 30500 / T

From the price list of cobalt salt, it can be seen that the price of cobalt salt rose sharply in January, and the cobalt market rose, which was good for the cobalt market, and the rising power of cobalt price increased.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of business news agency, believes that the sharp rise of cobalt salt price in January has driven the cobalt market up. The price of cobalt rose sharply in January, and the recent rise of cobalt salt price slowed down, which weakened the positive stimulus to the cobalt market. The rising power of cobalt Market in the future still exists, but the rise of cobalt Market slowed down. Generally speaking, the cobalt market is good, but with the advent of the Spring Festival, the enthusiasm of cobalt market purchasing is weakened, and the rising power of cobalt market is weakened. Cobalt price is expected to rise slowly in the future.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the nickel price rose first and then fell this week. The spot nickel price was 138200 yuan / ton, up 0.57% from 137416.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 7.86% from the beginning of the year, and up 25.67% year on year. At the beginning of this week, Shanghai nickel mainly opened at 132660, then the price fluctuated sharply, closing at 133380 on Friday, up 0.75%. Lunni closed at $18090 by Friday’s deadline, up 0.25% for the week.

2、 Market analysis

At the macro level, US bond interest rates rose, but inflation expectations did not follow. The market was worried about the gradual withdrawal of quantitative easing. However, China’s economic data was strong, China’s annual GDP data was relatively bright, and the commodity market had a certain boost. At present, the supply of refined nickel is relatively stable, the consumption of downstream stainless steel is better than the same period in previous years, the consumption of new energy is strong, the spot supply is tight, there is still strong support below, and the supply and demand of refined nickel in the middle line is better.

Future forecast: the current good macro environment can provide a certain support for the high consolidation of nickel price, the fundamental change is not big, and it is expected that nickel price will still maintain a high volatility pattern in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus fell this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 16900 yuan / ton last Thursday and 16733.33 yuan / ton this Thursday. The price fell by 0.99% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall trend of domestic yellow phosphorus market was downward, the spot market tension was eased, the business owners issued early orders, the transaction of new orders on the floor was limited, and the replenishment of small orders was mainly sporadic. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 16600 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Sichuan is about 16900 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Guizhou is about 16700 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole is stable, and the downstream procurement is mainly cautious. The price of Xifeng phosphate ore in Guizhou Province is stable. The price of 30% low-grade phosphate ore is 340 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as that of a week ago. At present, the market is still weak and the shipment volume is average.

In terms of coke, up to now, Shandong, Shanxi and other major production areas have implemented the fourteenth round of price increase, with a total of 900 yuan / ton in the fourteenth round. At present, coking enterprises are making good profits, starting work actively and selling well. Shandong Zibo coke (secondary metallurgical coke) market price, the mainstream price is about 2640 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton higher than the previous trading day, 450 yuan / ton higher than the same period last month. In the market price of coke in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke is 2590 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than the previous trading day and 450 yuan / ton higher than the same period last month; the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 2640 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than the previous trading day and 450 yuan / ton higher than the same period last month.

This week, the phosphoric acid market continued to be stable, with few new orders in the market, stable prices and main orders. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will be stable in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the chemical branch of business society believe that the price of yellow phosphorus will fall this week. At present, the tight spot market has been eased, and the business owners issue orders in the early stage, with a small amount of replenishment in the downstream. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be weak in the near future.

According to the price monitoring data of the business community, as of January 20, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol containing packaging in mainstream regions was around 11600 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on January 13, 2020; compared with that on January 1, 2020, the average price was reduced by 200 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.69%.

After a slight boost in the domestic n-propanol market on the 11th, the market of n-propanol remained stable and weak this week, and the offer prices of n-propanol plants in Shandong and Nanjing remained basically stable. Shandong region: the ex factory quotation of n-propanol is 10500-10800 yuan / ton (loose water), including packaging, and the price is 11300-11700 yuan / ton (including packaging), which is basically the same as the price a week ago. Nanjing area: some n-propanol manufacturers in Nanjing maintained a stable report. Some factories reduced the ex factory price of n-propanol apron by 200 yuan / T. the ex factory price of n-propanol apron is 10300-10800 yuan / T. among them, a n-propanol manufacturer in Nanjing has normal operation and limited inventory. The reference quotation of n-propanol apron including tax is around 10500 yuan / T.

On the supply side, the overall inventory of n-propanol domestic factories is low, most of them are direct supply contract users, some of them are in the secondary market, so the sales pressure is small. On the demand side, the downstream users’ demand is general, mainly purchasing on demand, and the pre holiday replenishment has not appeared yet, with few new orders.

In terms of raw materials, the overall external market of ethylene has shown a downward trend recently. On January 11, the price was $1086.75/ton, while on January 18, the average price of ethylene was $1059.75/ton, down 2.48%. The current price has increased by 8.09% month on month, and the current price has increased by 28.11% year on year. Asian ethylene market prices fell slightly. As of the 18th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1040-1050 / T, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $980-990 / T. The price of ethylene market in Europe fell. As of the 18th, FD northwest Europe quoted 1092-1103 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe quoted 1099-1108 US dollars / ton, down 5 US dollars / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. fell. As of the 18th, the last trading day, the price of FD US Gulf was 914-926 US dollars / ton. Recently, the market of ethylene in the U.S. fell and the demand was general.

Supply and demand are both weak and n-propanol will continue to be weak and stable in the future

At present, the overall performance of the domestic n-propanol market is weak in both supply and demand. Therefore, the n-propanol data division of the business society believes that the domestic n-propanol market will continue to be weak and stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the price trend of raw material cost and market demand in the future.