According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid rose slightly in July. As of the end of the month, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9020 yuan / ton, up 0.22% compared with the price of 9000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year decrease of 23.36%.

Domestic hydrofluoric acid prices rose slightly in July. Up to now, the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China is 8500-9000 yuan / ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid demand is general, and hydrofluoric acid market price is mainly volatile. The domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is normal, the hydrofluoric acid on-site device operates stably, and the hydrofluoric acid market price has slightly increased. So far, the mainstream hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 8500-9000 yuan / ton, and the hydrofluoric acid price in the northern market is 8000-9000 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend is mainly stable, some manufacturers reflect that hydrofluoric acid exists in the crack, some manufacturers reflect that domestic hydrofluoric acid is in the market, hydrofluoric acid trading market is general.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid raw material fluorite fell slightly in July. As of the end of the month, the domestic fluorite price was 2800 yuan / ton, and the price dropped slightly by 0.4% in July. The domestic spot supply of fluorite was normal, and some of the retailers could not offer low prices. The market reflected that the supply of fluorite spot goods was normal, and the price range of fluorite slightly fell. By the end of the month, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiation was 2700-2850 yuan / ton. The high price of fluorite in the market was a major support for hydrofluoric acid market, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price dropped slightly.

In July, the market trend of domestic refrigerants was general, the demand of domestic refrigerant industry did not improve significantly, the start-up of refrigerant industry remained low, and the price increase of hydrofluoric acid market was very limited. In addition, the economic recovery of Europe and the United States is not very ideal, the situation of refrigerant export is poor, and the domestic refrigerant trading market is cold. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price is still fluctuating. However, the market situation of price without market is obvious. The mainstream price of R22 in domestic large enterprises is 16000-18000 yuan / ton. The domestic R134a market price is low, and the plant operating rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream start-up is not high, and the demand for R134a is cold. In recent years, the downstream industry procurement situation is general, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is mainly stable, and the change range in July is small.

Overall, the upstream and downstream market trend of hydrofluoric acid is mainly stable. In addition, the upstream raw material fluorite continues to increase pressure, and the downstream refrigerant industry trading market has not improved significantly. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid in the business agency, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may fall slightly.

The domestic butadiene market rose widely in July, especially in the second half of the month. According to the monitoring price of business agency, the domestic butadiene market price was 3445 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 4473 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 29.83% during the month, and a decrease of 49.68% compared with the same period last year.

In July, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated upward, and the growth rate accelerated in the last ten days of the month. In the first half of the month, Tianjin Zhongsha and North Huajin plants were restarted, and it was difficult to see a significant improvement in the market supply side, and the wavelet rise in the first ten days was not continued. However, due to the strong performance of the external market and the limited quantity of domestic suppliers, the release of market supply was less than expected; meanwhile, affected by the weather, some ships in East China delayed unloading, and the spot supply was temporarily tight, which boosted the supplier’s price and accelerated the price rise. The short-term bullish expectation stimulated the positive inquiry of downstream, and some of them had chasing up sentiment, which further promoted the market to climb up. However, with the rapid rise of the market, the cautious atmosphere of the market is gradually rising. At the end of the month, the arrival of ships to Hong Kong and the increase of northeast supply, the high price transaction was hindered, and the market dropped slightly.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec East China butadiene supply rose by 1100 yuan / ton to 4700 yuan / ton on a month-on-month basis; Huajin butadiene plant in northern China was shut down for a short time within a month, and the online export source was significantly reduced, with the node price of 4560 yuan / ton as of July 30; the 200000 ton / year butadiene unit of Sinopec was shut down for maintenance on May 9, and the operation was restarted around July 10, with a small amount of goods exported; and Inner Mongolia Jiutai 70000 yuan / T The butadiene unit of Dalian Hengli Co., Ltd. was shut down around July 13 with no clear restart plan, and the inventory was normally exported; Dalian Hengli 140000 T / a butadiene plant was in stable operation, with the listing price of 4510 yuan / T as of July 31, an increase of 1200 yuan / T compared with the same period of last month; the 120000 T / a butadiene extraction unit in Liaoning Baolai may be put into operation in early August, so it is suggested to pay attention to the output.

In terms of industrial chain, downstream SBR: in July, the domestic SBR Market showed a downward trend and then an upward trend. As the ex factory price of styrene butadiene rubber rose to the recent high at the end of June, but after entering July, due to no real positive boost, the rise was difficult to sustain. Moreover, with the low price of raw materials and the high start-up of each styrene butadiene production enterprise, the supply of styrene butadiene rubber is still abundant; downstream factories enter the traditional off-season, and under the bearish market, the purchasing enthusiasm is not high, only to maintain the just demand; the market has successively appeared profit-making lower, causing obvious drag on the market, and gradually lower the trading center. After entering the late July, the ex factory and market prices of styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) basically fell back to the previous low level. At this time, the butadiene price rebounded upward and the market attention increased. In addition, the high level of natural rubber boosted the mentality of the industry gradually turned to be better, and the low output in the market was reduced. The manufacturers increased the price significantly and watched the new moon’s price guidance. The downstream maintained a wait-and-see attitude and resisted the high-priced goods, so the actual order continued discuss.

Br: in July, the overall performance of the domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market rebounded after falling. During the month, Yanshan and Qilu Shunding rubber units were shut down for maintenance, the supply was narrowed, and the good was released ahead of time, and the supplier pushed up the price of June; after entering July, the maintenance news came to the ground, but little impact on the market; the butadiene price remained low, and the cost side was empty; the start-up situation of tires and other equipment did not change much, and the price of cis-1-butadiene was in a deep decline, the downstream procurement progress was not big, so the price was pushed down Most of them are in the market; after the bad luck intensified, the low price of Shunding market is frequent, especially the inverted hanging range of some private Shunding prices is larger than the unit price of two oil companies, and the market falls into a strong bearish mood. The butadiene price rebounded slightly in the last ten days. Considering the factors such as the price difference between Shanghai Rubber and Shanghai rubber, the market began to show a slightly stable trend, and stopped falling in the later period, and there were signs of a narrow rebound until the end of the month.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in July 2020, there were 32 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose on a month on month basis, of which 15 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 16.7% of the total number of commodities monitored in the plate. The top three commodities that increased were sulfuric acid (42.50%), butadiene (29.83%) and propane (14.43%). There were 43 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 18.9% of the total number of monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products were acetone (- 38.02%), phenol (- 19.93%) and isopropanol (- 18.75%). This month, the average rise and fall was – 0.47%.

In the future, the domestic butadiene market rose rapidly in late July, but the downstream follow-up was slightly insufficient. High price transaction was hindered and the domestic spot supply increased, the market fell and sorted. In August, on the one hand, the high external market and abundant raw materials from domestic manufacturers may affect the reduction of import sources in the second half of the month. However, at the same time, there are plans for the production of 120000 T / a new units in Baolai, Liaoning Province, which may continue to supplement domestic demand. The recovery of downstream terminal demand and the upstream butadiene supply increase may exist at the same time. Under the supply and demand deadlock, butadiene analysts of the business community expect that the butadiene market will fluctuate between small areas and wait for the transaction to follow up. The short-term upward pushing resistance is obvious, and the medium and long-term lines need to pay attention to the release of new production capacity.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the sulfur production price in East China at the weekend was 636.67 yuan / ton, which was 2.14% higher than that at the beginning of the week and 25.97% lower than that of last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the sulfur price in East China is on the upward trend. The sulfur market demand is not warm and not hot. There is a lack of substantive information on the internal and external markets. The downstream factories are less active in purchasing and the market operation mentality is not positive. The trading and trading are mainly on demand. During the week, Sinopec’s quotation of solid and liquid sulfur in East China was stable; in Shandong, Sinopec, the price of solid sulfur was increased by 20 yuan / ton, by 64 yuan / ton; by 20-40 yuan / ton, by 610-640 yuan / ton; in North China of Sinopec, the price of solid and liquid sulfur was increased by 20 yuan / ton, 550-650 yuan / ton and 500-650 yuan / ton, respectively.

On the downstream side, domestic phosphate fertilizer started normal, the market trading was a little dull, mainly purchasing on demand, and the export volume and price were stable. This week, the domestic market of ammonium phosphate was weak and stable. Affected by the weather, the start-up of primary ammonium and enterprises decreased, the enthusiasm of downstream purchasing was not high, and the inventory of enterprises was under pressure; the market of DAP started higher, the demand was better, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm improved. In terms of sulfuric acid, the price is mainly stable, and there is no obvious fluctuation in the market. Domestic acid enterprises have little change in the start-up, and most of them maintain stable supply. However, the domestic market is in excess of sulfuric acid supply. Under the game between supply and demand, it is expected that the sulfuric acid market will be weak in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Aftermarket forecast: according to the sulfur analysts of business club, although the domestic sulfur market has slightly adjusted this week, the overall price fluctuation is not big, and the market supply and demand performance is still flat. At present, the port inventory remains high, the downstream construction is low and stable, and the demand performance is stable. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will be weak and stable.

Upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid prices remained high, while the overall price of aluminum fluoride fell first and then rose. According to the data of business agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 8833 yuan / ton on July 30, 0.95% higher than that at the beginning of the month.

In July, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid market prices remained at a high level. By the end of the month, the domestic fluorite price was 2800 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic spot supply of fluorite was normal, and the operation of fluorite devices on site was stable. It reflected that the spot supply of fluorite was tight and the fluorite price remained high. The downstream aluminum fluoride market price brings certain cost support.

At the beginning of the month, the aluminum fluoride manufacturers reduced the shipment slightly, and the demand of electrolytic aluminum enterprises to copy the bottom increased. In addition, the fluorite price remained at a high level, and the aluminum fluoride factory increased rapidly. At present, most enterprises are facing losses, some factories are operating at low load, the quotation of the owner is firm, and the sales intention of aluminum fluoride market is obvious.

The aluminum fluoride industry analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that: the upstream fluorite prices remain high, aluminum fluoride manufacturers stand up for sales, and the price of aluminum fluoride is expected to rise steadily.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the overall price of lithium carbonate in East China showed an upward trend in July, and the prices of industrial carbon and electric carbon increased to varying degrees. As of July 29, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 39700 yuan / ton, which was 260 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial carbon in East China was 39440 yuan / ton on July 1), up 0.66%. On July 29, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 44900 yuan / ton, which was 700 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of carbon in East China was 44200 yuan / ton), up 1.58%.

According to the observation of market changes, the market price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in the first ten days of July showed a mixed situation of rise and fall, the downstream demand of the market slightly recovered, and the market inquiry increased. Although the industrial carbon price of some enterprises slightly increased, the overall price still slightly declined. With the gradual improvement of the operating rate, the price of industrial carbon began to rise gradually in the middle and late July, and the demand was relatively better. But near the end of the month, the downstream enterprises have a low acceptance of the price increase, so the price returns to stable.

However, in the long run, the bottom of the price has already appeared, the demand for battery grade lithium carbonate is limited, and the demand of purification enterprises is increasing, and the pressure of market supply surplus is still under. For the rise of prices, downstream enterprises are not very receptive, so it has been stable since the end of the last ten days.

The downstream market price of lithium hydroxide remained stable throughout July. At present, large battery grade lithium hydroxide manufacturers have low willingness to reduce prices, high price is firm, spot transactions are sporadic, and low price or with a small amount of material manufacturers purchase a small amount of decline. In the lithium iron phosphate Market, the price of iron and lithium remained unchanged due to the difficulty for downstream battery manufacturers to accept the increase in iron lithium price. Therefore, this will restrain the upward trend of lithium carbonate price. This month, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is between 35000 yuan / ton and 45000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive price of battery grade lithium carbonate is between 45000 yuan / ton and 48000 yuan / ton.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of the business club, the sharp increase of lithium carbonate import and the increase of domestic industrial carbon production will alleviate the tight situation of subsequent shipment, but the upward space of lithium salt price will be narrowed. In addition, the demand for ternary materials recovered slowly, and lithium carbonate inventory pressure is still under pressure. It is expected that the upward space of lithium carbonate price is still under pressure in the short term.