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Cost support is not strong, ethylene external market price is lower

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene has fallen recently. On the 19th, the average price of ethylene was 778.75 US dollars / ton, and on the 26th it was 750.50 US dollars / ton, a decrease of 3.63%. The current price is down 0.17% month on month, and the current price is 10.63% lower than last year.


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In the near future, the overall market of ethylene in the external market shows a downward trend. Asian ethylene market prices fell, with CFR Northeast Asia closing at $805-815 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closing at $770-780 / T as of the 26th. The European ethylene market price fell slightly. As of the 26th, the European ethylene market price was FD, which closed at 706-719 US dollars / ton in northwest Europe and 697-706 dollars / ton in CIF northwest Europe. The price of ethylene in the United States dropped to 490-502 US dollars / ton as of the 26th. In the end of October, the market of ethylene in Europe and America decreased slightly. Generally speaking, the demand of the whole ethylene market was poor, and the market continued to decline.


International: on October 23, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell, and the settlement price of the main contract was $39.85/barrel, down $0.79. Brent crude oil futures market price fell, the main contract settlement price to 42.07 US dollars / barrel, down 0.39 US dollars. Oil prices have fallen recently, mainly due to the Libya conflict, the two sides signed a cease-fire agreement. Crude oil market decline can not give ethylene cost support, ethylene external market continued to fall.


Recently, the market price of styrene in East China increased slightly. Domestic styrene factory and port inventory is still declining. The price of styrene increases with the increase of the price of the goods holder. The market jumps and opens high. The downstream start-up continues to run on a high side. The rigid demand is strong, and some downstream prices rise sharply, driving up the price of styrene. In the near future, the East China styrene quotation has been raised to around 6600-6800 yuan / T. the styrene price tends to be sorted and digested after several big rises. It is expected that there is room for consolidation and price increase in the mainstream. But the price rise is small, unable to support the ethylene market.


In terms of crude oil, the two sides of the Libya conflict signed a cease-fire agreement in Geneva on the same day. The market was more worried about crude oil demand, and the drop in crude oil could not form a support for the ethylene market. Therefore, the data analysts of the business agency predicted that the external price of ethylene would fall mainly as follows.

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Potassium nitrate prices fell this week (10.19-10.23)

According to the data monitored by the business agency, at the beginning of the week, the domestic first-class industrial grade potassium nitrate was quoted at 4150.00 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, 4100.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.2%. The current price was 1.5% lower than that of last year, and the current price was 6.02% lower than that of last year.


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This week, the domestic potassium nitrate declined slightly, the trading atmosphere of potassium nitrate Market was not good, and the actual transaction volume was less. Generally speaking, the mentality of potassium nitrate manufacturers was low, and the market of potassium nitrate was lower. According to the statistics of the business agency: this week, the domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 3900-4400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotations are different according to different purchasing situations.


This week, the quotation of mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride is temporarily stable: the ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is 1850 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of Anhui Badou potassium chloride sales at the weekend is 2000 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. Overall, the main contradiction in the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is mainly on demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable. Limited support for potassium carbonate


In recent years, the domestic potash fertilizer market price quoted by port traders is higher, but the downstream factory new order transaction is not active, and the shipment speed is relatively slow. It is expected that the market of potassium nitrate will decline slightly in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

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Caprolactam price rises by more than 5% (10.13-10.23) in ten days

1、 Price trend


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According to the business club’s big list data, the recent domestic caprolactam price rise. The average ex factory price of caprolactam on October 13 was 9233 yuan / ton, and that on October 23 was 9733 yuan / ton, with an increase of 5.42% on October 10.


2、 Market analysis


Recently, the supply of caprolactam decreased and the price of caprolactam rose. As of October 23, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9400 yuan / T, and the factory had a production capacity of 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be discussed. Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid price is 10100 yuan / ton. The 400000 tons / year plant starts normally, and the caprolactam unit operates normally. The price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid is 9900 yuan / ton. Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid price is 9900 yuan / T, 450000 tons / year, the plant is in normal operation, accepted and delivered. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical Company is 9900 yuan / ton, and the 300000 tons / year unit is normally started and accepted.


The domestic market of raw material pure benzene rose mainly driven by styrene, and the market trading atmosphere rose. The higher price of pure benzene stimulated the downstream purchasing enthusiasm and the market transaction was active.


3、 Future forecast


Caprolactam analysts believe that the recent decline in caprolactam inventory, supply reduction. The raw material pure benzene rose, the downstream demand for caprolactam increased, and the upstream and downstream support was strong. In the short term, caprolactam market is expected to maintain a strong trend or continue to rise.

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China’s domestic DMF market price keeps rising at a high level

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of October 22, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 8600 yuan / ton. The price of domestic DMF market continued to grow, with a strong upward trend, and the price continued to rise. Compared with the same period last month, the price increased by 22.27%, 16.74% compared with the beginning of October, and the overall increase was more than 1000 yuan / ton.


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This week, the domestic DMF market price increased by more than 1000 yuan in the short term, the downstream demand increased, just needed to replenish, the manufacturers shipped smoothly, at present, the inventory is not under pressure, and the device is in normal operation. At present, the overall DMF market has a strong upward trend, the focus of negotiation moves upward, and the buying mentality drives the price to continue to rise. As of October 22, Luxi Chemical Industry quoted 9000 yuan / ton, Hualu Hengsheng 8000 yuan/ It is 9200 yuan / ton in Xinghua of Shaanxi Province, 8900-9300 yuan / ton in East China market and 9200-9400 yuan / ton in South China market.


Methanol in the upstream is mainly stable, with general transaction atmosphere, no pressure on inventory and narrow range sorting.


The chemical index on October 21 was 767 points, up 3 points compared with yesterday, 24.51% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 28.26% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)


DMF analysts believe that: DMF market is currently running at a high level, with strong upward momentum and maintaining an upward trend in the short term. (the above prices are provided by major DMF manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business DMF analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

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Double benefits raise glycol price

In the first half of 2020, the crude oil price fell deeply, and the overseas epidemic situation became more and more serious. The chemical products fell off cliff, and ethylene glycol was no exception. After the “11th” festival, the eg price was relatively strong, driven by the traditional peak season and the periodic improvement of internal and external orders.


Eg double benefits centralized release


Li WANYING, a senior analyst at the East China Sea Research Institute, believes that recently, ethylene glycol is favorable for centralized release. First of all, due to the proper control of domestic epidemic situation, it is said that Christmas orders from India and other countries have been transferred to China. These orders should be mainly cotton spinning, indirectly driving the polyester market. Secondly, in terms of domestic trade, the retail sales of 100 key large-scale retail enterprises increased by 8.5% year-on-year during the national day, which was 14.3 percentage points higher than that in the same period in 2019.


From the perspective of the main category markets, the retail sales of clothing category grew brilliantly, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.8%. Among them, the growth rate of men’s clothing, women’s clothing and children’s clothing was 23.9%, 13.1% and 27.3%, respectively, which was higher than the market expectation, which rekindled the industry’s expectation for the peak season. In addition, the “cold winter” expectation brought by La Nina effect increased the market demand for warm fabrics in winter.


Supply side contraction logic is about to turn


Since the beginning of this year, affected by factors such as large fluctuations in costs, the overall profitability of the ethylene glycol unit is poor, and the oil head unit once lost money. With the price repair since the third quarter, the profitability of many devices has improved.


It is expected that the ethylene glycol production capacity will be increased in the later part of the fourth quarter. The 400000 T / a oil production unit of Sinopec will be put into operation on October 26, the 400000 T / a unit of Xinjiang Tianye (600075, Guba) is in operation and commissioning, and the ethylene glycol unit of Henan Longyu with a capacity of 200000 t / A is planned to be commissioned in October.


Founder medium term futures Sui Xiaoying believes that although the current supply and demand of ethylene glycol is in the process of going to the warehouse, the release pressure of long-term production capacity will still suppress the space for futures price to strengthen.


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According to Li WANYING’s analysis, the capacity of domestic ethylene glycol plant from syngas reached 5.79 million tons, accounting for 39% of the domestic ethylene glycol production capacity. According to the amount of 3 million tons, the total production capacity of polyester at the end of the year is about 63.3 million tons. Even if the comprehensive operating rate is 90%, the average monthly ethylene glycol demand is about 1.8-1.9 million tons. By the end of this year, the production capacity of ethylene glycol is expected to be 15 million tons.


Demand uncertainty in the fourth quarter


“The biggest question at the moment is whether these benefits can continue to boost the market in the fourth quarter.” Li WANYING said that the overseas epidemic situation is still the biggest uncertainty, at least from the data point of view, the possibility of a second outbreak of infection in autumn and winter is relatively high. For the textile and clothing terminal, the most serious period of the epidemic in the first half of the year led to many clothing stores losing money and closing down, and it is difficult to fundamentally reverse the shrinking demand under the background of the epidemic situation.


On the domestic side, the crowded orders and rush orders in October will obviously ease in November, and the market speculation atmosphere will return to rationality. In terms of raw material procurement, according to the CCF research results, the downstream upstream has been actively replenished in the early stage, and the production and sales volume has continued to be large for half a month. At present, the average stock of raw materials on hand in the downstream reaches is generally more than 25 days, and some parts are higher for 1-2 months. Both weaving and texturing, recent procurement has begun to be reasonable, and polyester production and sales are gradually falling. The market has been waiting for the profit is often infinitely amplified, as investors still need to pay attention to the effective continuation of the peak season. For raw materials PTA and MEG, once the demand shows signs of decline, fundamental pressure will return to the disk.


Considering their respective import conditions, ethylene glycol needs a long-term shutdown capacity of 4.5-5 million tons. Even if 1.2 million tons of ethylene long-term shutdown units are deducted, 3.5 million tons of plant shutdown are still needed. The coal chemical industry should be controlled below 35%, which can maintain the balance of supply and demand. At present, the overall load of ethylene glycol has significantly recovered from the previous low level. Li WANYING reminded investors that investors should carefully evaluate the sustainability of the peak season. In the medium and long term, the 01 contract still has downward momentum.

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