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On December 11, the market price of melamine was temporarily stable

I. melamine price trend:

 

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the market price of melamine was temporarily stable as of December 11, which was the same as that of December 10. On December 11, the mainstream price of melamine in China was 5200-5600 yuan / ton.

 

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II. Market analysis:

 

Product: the domestic melamine market price was temporarily stable on November 11. At present, some melamine enterprises stop for maintenance, but the downstream demand is general, the market is mainly stable, and the operators are cautious. At present, the mainstream price of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 4900 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Sichuan is around 5400 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Henan is around 5600 yuan / ton. The main quotation of melamine market in Shandong is around 5600 yuan / ton.

 

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Industrial chain: the ex factory price of urea in Shandong (12.1-12.11) rose by 1.09%. The upstream liquid ammonia price (12.1-12.11) rose by 5.97%. Downstream papermaking, board, molding plastics and other industries have general demand, and the delivery and investment atmosphere is flat.

 

3. Future forecast:

 

Analysts of melamine in the business community believe that the recent rise in the prices of liquid ammonia and urea, the raw materials, is a good support for the cost of melamine. The melamine operation rate has declined, but the downstream demand is flat, and it is expected that the melamine market will be mainly stable in the short term.

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Weak demand, China’s domestic acetic acid market continued to decline

I. price trend

 

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market continues to decline. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2300-2350 yuan / ton; in Shandong is about 2400-2500 yuan / ton; in Hebei is about 2500 yuan / ton; in Shaanxi is about 2150 yuan / ton; in Jiangsu is about 2400-2500 yuan / ton; in Zhejiang is about 2600-2700 yuan / ton; in South China, the price is about 2300-2350 yuan / ton The quotation is about 2650-2700 yuan / ton.

 

II. Cause analysis

 

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Product: at present, the domestic acetic acid market continues to weaken, the situation of supply exceeding demand in the industry is increasingly prominent, and the inventory of enterprises is gradually increasing. Due to the factors such as how many orders the enterprises ship and considering the cost, the price of acetic acid is weak and declining, the mentality of the industry is soft, and the demand is insufficient.

 

Industry chain: in the upstream, methanol market surged and fell, and demand in some regions was weak, at present, about 2125 yuan / ton; domestic acetate, vinyl acetate and acetic anhydride industries were affected by double negative factors such as insufficient support for raw materials and weak demand in the downstream, which continued to weaken in the near future, and showed no signs of improvement in a short period of time; PTA spot market was affected by maintenance, and prices slightly improved, opening up in the industry The price of acetic acid was not well supported by the decline of labor.

 

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International: this week, the international acetic acid market is weak, including the North American acetic acid market at about 610 US dollars / ton; the Asian acetic acid market is affected by poor demand, at present, 295-360 US dollars / ton; the European acetic acid is affected by the low price acetic acid in Asia, and the current quotation is about 650 euros / ton.

 

III. future forecast

 

According to the acetic acid analyst of the business association, the domestic acetic acid market continues to weaken under the influence of poor demand, and the situation is intensified due to the high opening rate and inventory rise in the industry. Near the end of the year, some traders and downstream intend to copy the bottom and prepare goods, but the actual transaction is flat, the buying in the industry is cautious, and the acetic acid market is expected to operate in a weak position in a short period of time.

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The China’s domestic coke market continues to expand, and is expected to remain strong in the future

I. price data:

 

II. Trend analysis

 

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Price: according to the data monitoring of business agency, after the second round of increase of 50 yuan / ton, the domestic coke market is stable and stronger. At present, the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shanghai is 1880 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1950 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Xuzhou is 1850 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1920 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Weifang, Shandong Province is 1800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1850 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province is 1700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1700 yuan / ton The mainstream price of metallurgical coke is 1750 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang is 1790 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1850 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shenyang, Liaoning is 1820 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1880 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Pingdingshan, Henan is 1810 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1900 yuan / ton; Tangshan, Hebei Province The mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke is 1790 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1840 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tianjin is 1800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1900 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market in Sichuan is 2030 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Liupanshui coke market in Guizhou is 2270 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Ordos coke market The main price of metallurgical coke is 1450 yuan / ton. The port trades about 2050 yuan / ton of primary metallurgical coke, 1950 yuan / ton of quasi primary metallurgical coke and 1850 yuan / ton of secondary metallurgical coke.

 

Products: after the second round of increase of 50 yuan / ton of coke price, influenced by environmental protection, production restriction and capacity reduction, the supply of domestic coke spot market has declined, the market mentality is more optimistic, some coke prices are reluctant to sell; in the downstream, the recent demand of steel mills is stable, some steel mills have the demand for replenishment, and the rest are mainly rigid, which supports the coke price stably.

 

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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on December 9, 2019, there were seven commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which Brent crude oil (1.58%), petroleum coke (1.36%) and WTI crude oil (1.32%) were the top three commodities. There are two kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, the first two products falling are liquefied natural gas (- 4.28%) and fuel oil (- 0.18%). The average price of this day is 0.15%.

 

III. future forecast

 

According to the coke analysts of the business club, the domestic coke market is relatively stable and strong at present, and some steel mills have accepted the increase of coke price. With the production restriction of the coke market and the process of replenishment of steel mills, the coke market is expected to be stable and positive in the short term.

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On December 9, the market price trend of phthalic anhydride was stable

According to statistics, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in China is stable. As of December 9, the price of phthalic anhydride from o-phthalic acid process is 6312.5 yuan / ton, and the recent price trend of o-phthalic anhydride market is mainly stalemate.

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In the near future, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market is stable, the price of phthalic anhydride market in East China is temporarily stable, the downstream factories maintain just need to purchase, the factory inventory pressure still exists, the high-end transaction is blocked, the factory inventory has increased recently, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market is volatile. In East China, the main flow of negotiation for neighboring process and naphthalene process is 6200-6400 yuan / ton and 5800-6000 yuan / ton respectively; in North China, the main quotation for phthalic anhydride market is 6100-6200 yuan / ton, most of the manufacturers in the field are stable, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is based on demand, the wait-and-see state is relatively strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is normal, and the price of phthalic anhydride is moving The potential is stable.

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In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6200 yuan / ton. Due to the high unit operating rate of some domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the normal supply of goods within the site, the import phthalic acid Market in the port area remains at a low level. In the near future, the phthalic acid Market in the port is stable, the port inventory is low, and the external price of phthalic acid is temporarily stable. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the details are discussed in detailBenzene price stability, phthalic anhydride market price trend limited.

The downstream DOP price increased slightly, the price of isooctanol decreased, and the cost of DOP raw materials remained stable. DOP price is fluctuating, downstream demand of DOP is normal, customer procurement enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market is fluctuating and rising, high-end DOP transaction is blocked, mainstream transaction price of DOP market is maintained at 7300-7550 yuan / ton, downstream price trend is normal, but upstream ox price is maintained at a low level, and demand of plasticizer industry is not changed much, phthalic anhydride analyst of business society expects that market price of phthalic anhydride will be mainly fluctuating in the later period 

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Less supply, higher logistics cost, and warmer ABS price (12.1-12.6)

I. price trend:

 

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the ABS market rose slightly in early December, while the spot price in the domestic market rose narrowly. As of December 6, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 13250.00 yuan / ton, up 1.53% from the beginning of the month.

 

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II. Analysis of influencing factors:

 

Industry chain: ABS upstream, domestic styrene market slightly explored. In recent days, crude oil and bulk commodities rose steadily and rebounded, driving the market to open higher, and styrene market rebounded. The international prices of raw materials such as ethylene and pure benzene increased slightly. In the downstream, PS, the price fluctuates in a narrow range, and the downstream factories are not willing to prepare goods. Most transactions are based on small orders. In terms of EPS, the price is stable, the downstream replenishment intention is poor, and the overall transaction atmosphere is general. Styrene gradually entered the off-season, the enterprise multi-dimensional rigid procurement, general demand performance. Recently, a large number of imported styrene arrived at the port due to the early channel blockade and the subsequent continuous arrival of imported goods. Recently, the styrene inventory in East China rose, bringing resistance to the rebound of the domestic styrene market. On the whole, it is expected that styrene price rebound this week will be limited, while in the short term, it is still bearish and the price will be consolidated;

 

In the near future, the spot market of acrylonitrile related products has been warmer, the supply of goods in the field has been reduced, the mentality of traders has been supported, and the offer is firm and partially higher. Although the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is the mainstream, but near the logistics outage, the factory has a certain demand for goods. The acrylonitrile market is expected to rise slightly in the short term;

 

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Butadiene supply price is stable, the market is weak, the information surface guidance is limited, the downstream inquiry continues to be cold, and the offer changes little, mainly wait-and-see. The price of the outside market remained stable. In terms of market, the butadiene market in East China continued to be cold, with low enthusiasm for downstream procurement, limited market turnover, real single negotiation and price consolidation. The butadiene market in Shandong Province has limited changes and stable supply and demand. There is no obvious guidance on the news. The business is mainly waiting and the transaction is cold. The domestic offer price of SBR in the downstream increased slightly, and the operators were cautious. In some areas, the buyer had the behavior of price reduction, but the transaction was not much. Domestic br market is stable. The price offered by the merchants is stable, and the intention of low price shipment is not high. The inquiry atmosphere in the field is flat, and sporadic buyers enter the market for inquiry, and the volume of spot trading is small. There is not much spot circulation in the butadiene market, but the demand continues to be cold and the supply and demand remain stagnant. In the short term, the domestic butadiene market may maintain stable consolidation;

 

3. Future forecast:

 

Business analysts believe that: in early December, the ABS market maintained a positive trend, the offer was warm, and the spot prices of various brands rose differently. The cost side of the upstream three materials continued to be adjusted in November, which has certain support for the cost side. On the demand side, it is close to the logistics outage, and there is another news that dangerous chemicals are restricted. Measures such as strict inspection of freight vehicles have resulted in tight logistics and rising costs. The price inquiry of downstream factories has been improved to some extent, but it is still dominated by just in need replenishment. Merchants’ mentality is stable for the time being, and the delivery is based on the market. It is expected that the domestic ABS market will continue to be more positive in the near future. It is suggested to pay close attention to the supply side trend.

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