Author Archives: lubon

Cost side, news side, multiple points frustrated, ABS declining trend expanded (3.16-3.26)

1、 Price trend:

 

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the domestic ABS market continued its previous weak trend in the middle and late March, and the spot market price decreased. As of Thursday, March 26, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 11500.00 yuan / ton, down 5.35% from the average price level of the second weekend in March.

 

Sulfamic acid 99.50%

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

 

Industry chain: ABS upstream, the recent styrene market decline. Domestic styrene prices fell in the first half of the month due to bad news from crude oil chemical industry. To the second half of the month is directly reflected in the weak trend of the cost side dragging down the price of styrene. At present, the market supply is good and the social inventory is high. Downstream still maintain just need to take goods, business confidence is insufficient, bearish aftermarket. The market lacks strong support and on-site trading is generally low. It is expected that styrene will continue to operate in a weak way in the near future;

 

In the first half of the month, acrylonitrile was also affected by the negative news of crude oil chemical industry. In addition, new production capacity has been added in the near future, which made the site bearish. The downstream return rate is lower than that before the festival, and just need a small amount of goods, so it is difficult to improve in a short time due to the shrinking demand. At present, the market is lack of positive boost, and the mentality of the industry is low. It is expected that the market of acrylonitrile will not improve in the near future;

 

Sulfamic acid 

In recent years, the domestic butadiene market has continued a weak downward trend. The macro negative news such as the sharp drop of crude oil has led to the cautious attitude of domestic businesses. The downturn of downstream inquiry has dragged down the pressure on supplier prices, and the overall market focus has continued to fall. Short term terminal demand has a short-term impact on the overall industry chain. Although there is no significant negative sign of the main synthetic rubber in the downstream, the narrowing of the price gap leads to poor expectations in the later period, and the atmosphere of butadiene spot market is low. It is said that some of the spot goods in East China last week have export plans, but under the pressure of the economic environment, it is difficult to fundamentally ease the contradiction between supply and demand of spot goods; in addition, the transaction of northeast goods is not smooth, and the short-term market trend is short. Short term domestic butadiene market weak downward trend is hard to change, it is suggested to pay attention to the news and spot transaction guidance;

 

3、 Future forecast:

 

Business analysts believe that: in the second half of March, the ABS market continued to decline, and the decline in various brands of spot goods expanded. Cost side of the upstream three materials are not good in the near future, the support for the cost side is weak. At present, the spot supply of ABS is relatively sufficient, but the downstream demand is weak. The news outside the market was short, and the confidence of the merchants was hit, so they actively reduced the price of goods. It is expected that domestic ABS prices will continue to weaken in the near future.

Magnesium Sulphate

The price has gone up by more than 10%. Can monoammonium phosphate go up?

1、 Price trend

 

In recent years, monoammonium phosphate has been rising for several consecutive days, up more than 10%, and this month has risen 7.02%. So far, the commodity index of monoammonium phosphate on March 22 is 71.41, which is flat with that of yesterday, 29.18% lower than the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and 15.01% higher than the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

sulphamic acid

2、 Market analysis

 

Products: the operating rate of enterprises has been greatly increased, and Hubei enterprises have started to operate in succession. At present, the factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei Province is 1950-2100 yuan / ton, and that of 60% mainstream powdered ammonium is 2150-2250 yuan / ton. The market in Henan province maintains stable operation. The ex factory price of 55% ammonium powder is 1950-2100 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 58% ammonium powder is 2050-2150 yuan / ton. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1950-2100 yuan / ton, which is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is 1850-2100 yuan / ton.

 

Industrial chain: the sulfur market has risen sharply recently. Hubei phosphate fertilizer manufacturers started one after another, the supply of phosphate fertilizer increased, fertilizer spring ploughing led to the improvement of sulfur demand, effectively boosting the overall confidence of the market. The enthusiasm of the downstream market entry procurement is weakened and mainly on demand, the buyer and the seller intend to keep the price difference, and the on-site trading and investment are mostly stuck on the sidelines. In addition to the price stabilization of individual refineries, the prices of refineries in other regions are increased according to their own shipping situation. This week, the phosphorus ore market fluctuated slightly, and the overall stable operation is the main factor. At present, the phosphorus ore market in Guizhou has basically recovered, but the operating rate of production enterprises is not high, and low and medium load production is mainly for self use.

 

Sulfamic acid 

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 11th week of 2020 (3.16-3.20), there are 15 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 3.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are isopropanol (26.40%), acetic anhydride (6.37%) and dichloromethane (5.38%). There are 39 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 14 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 16.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 17.60%), chloroform (- 15.79%) and crude benzene (- 14.52%). This week’s average was – 1.62%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to analysts of monoammonium phosphate of business association, the price of monoammonium phosphate has reached its peak at present, and the sharp rise in raw materials has gradually stabilized. The demand of downstream compound fertilizer is lower than that of last week. It is expected that the price of monoammonium phosphate will be stable in the later stage, and the possibility of rising again is low or gradually falling. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of raw materials and demand.

Magnesium Sulphate

The price of sodium pyrosulfite kept steady this week (3.16-3.20)

1、 Price trend of sodium pyrosulfite in China

 

According to the monitoring of the business association, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite continued to move forward steadily this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1693.33 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 1693.33 yuan / ton, up or down by 0.

 

Sulfamic acid 99.80%

2、 Market analysis

 

Products: in the late March, all domestic sodium metabisulfite enterprises are basically back to work. Affected by the continuous weak downstream demand, the domestic sodium metabisulfite inventory has increased after the manufacturers return to work. The overall delivery and investment of domestic sodium metabisulfite market is light. This week, the market price range of industrial sodium metabisulfite is 1600-1850 yuan / ton. In order to speed up the shipment, some enterprises slightly reduce the factory price, and mainstream Enterprises The quoted price of the industry is around 1600 yuan / ton. (the above prices refer to the foreign quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, some of which are temporarily excluded from the scope. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation).

 

sulphamic acid

Industry chain: this week, the price of soda ash is stable, the price of sulfur continues to rise, and the slight rise in raw material cost will support the market price of sodium metabisulfite in the future.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Business analysts believe that the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price is under pressure in the short term due to weak downstream demand, increased inventory and other factors.

Sulfamic acid 

Weak consolidation of BDO market (3.16-3.20)

1、 Price trend

 

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of March 20, the average price of domestic BDO market was 9760 yuan / ton, with a 1.91% month on month drop in price and an 8.07% year-on-year increase.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Product: domestic BDO market weakness consolidation this week. The factory has a strong attitude towards the market, reducing the load or parking, and the price is on the high side. However, due to the recent collapse of crude oil and the spread of foreign epidemics, the demand of domestic and foreign terminal industries continues to be depressed, which leads to the accumulation of inventory in most downstream industries and short-term negative growth without support. The start-up of the downstream PBT was slow, and other downstream PBT was also in low negative operation. Under the cost pressure, the downstream market pressure is serious, and more rigid spot small single replenishment is needed. At present, there is abundant spot supply in the field. With the restart of Meike, there is strong bearish mood in the middle and lower reaches. Some manufacturers are in the shipping mentality and negotiate with each other in a narrow range. In order to reduce the inventory pressure and stabilize the price, some factories released the information of parking and maintenance again, but the downstream game mentality is still the same.

 

Sulfamic acid 99.80%

In terms of devices, this week, crane coal load is 50%, and there is a maintenance plan in April; Kaixiang recently stopped for maintenance, and the restart time is uncertain; Meike started on March 13, and the load is 50%; Tianye phase I 30000 ton device is in normal operation, The restart time of other devices is to be determined; Dongyuan will stop for maintenance on March 5, and it is expected to start in early April; Tunhe will stop for 50% of the first phase, and the second phase; Ronghe will stop for maintenance on February 28; Xinye will load 40%; Shaanxi chemical will load 60%, and there will be maintenance plan at the end of March and early April.

 

Industry chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol, the overall methanol market this week showed a downward trend, with a general trading atmosphere. The main stream of Inner Mongolia fell to 1450-1550 yuan / ton of ex factory spot exchange; the upstream factories in Northern Shaanxi were forced to make profits under the pressure of shipment, and the current main stream transaction fell to 1450 yuan / ton of ex factory spot exchange nearby, providing 40-50 yuan / ton for large orders of olefin factories; the main stream of Guanzhong region at the beginning of the week was reported to 1500-1650 yuan / ton, the low-end shipment was smooth, the high-end transaction was not completed temporarily, and the lower half of the week continued to decline along with the downstream receiving prices such as northern Shandong As a result, the atmosphere in Guanzhong is becoming weaker, and the current mainstream negotiation is further reduced to around 1500-1570 yuan / ton; the mainstream in Xinjiang is down to around 1050 yuan / ton, and some downstream areas have bottom reading psychology, so the delivery and investment atmosphere is better than that of last week. The main source of goods outside Xinjiang is Baofeng and other olefin factories, and Xinjiang to Ningxia is sent to reference 1430 yuan / ton.

 

Calcium carbide: this week, the domestic calcium carbide market first stabilized and then fell. After a rapid decline in the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the early stage, the production enterprises are facing a loss situation. The enterprises hold a stable wait-and-see position. The ex factory price in Wuhai area is maintained at the mainstream of 2600 yuan / ton. However, in recent years, the inventory in Wuhai area has gradually accumulated. Affected by the inventory pressure, the factory price of domestic calcium carbide began to decline in recent days. However, through investigation, it can be found that the arrival volume of calcium carbide in North and central China has obviously contracted. There are two main reasons. One is the contraction of supply of goods in the Urumqi League this week, and the other is the list of market trade supply and investment atmosphere.

 

Sulfamic acid 99.50%

3、 Future forecast

 

Crude oil plummeted again, the epidemic spread abroad, domestic and foreign terminal demand was limited, downstream construction continued to be weak, and a large number of inventories accumulated, negative and no power. At present, although the on-site construction is at a low level, the BDO inventory in the early stage is difficult to digest, and Merck is restarted, with incremental expectations; the mentality of the middle and lower reaches is intensified, and the market price is still depressed, but the supplier is strong, and the game continues. In order to reduce the inventory pressure and stabilize the price, some factories released the information of parking and maintenance again, but the imbalance between supply and demand is difficult to ease. BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will continue to be in a weak situation next week, with risk reduction, focusing on the main downstream start-up and changes in the mentality of suppliers and demanders.

Sulfamic acid 

The supply and demand pattern is hard to change in a short time, and PVC market has a long way to go

1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitored by the business agency (average ex factory price of SG5 in carbide process), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on March 18 was 6187.5 yuan / ton, down 0.6% compared with the previous day, and down 2.56% compared with the same period last year. On March 18, the PVC commodity index was 78.41, down 0.47 points from yesterday, down 21.59% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 34.56% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

Sulfamic acid 99.50%

2、 Market analysis

 

Products: the domestic PVC market fell slightly on Wednesday, mainly digesting the previous gains. The trend of PVC futures affected by the recent crude oil market slump is not good, but for the time being, the impact is not significant. The spot market volatility is limited and slightly volatile, but the market trading is weak. With the end enterprises returning to work one after another, the demand has increased to a certain extent, but some enterprises are still facing difficulties in returning to work, the overall operating rate is low, most of them are just in need of replenishment, the weak demand end is difficult to form a strong support for the PVC market, and the manufacturer’s sales pressure is still great. PVC enterprises have gradually increased the operating rate, continued to increase inventory, abundant supply in the market, and the situation of oversupply is hard to change in a short period of time. At the same time, the cost end of calcium carbide is strongly supported. PVC enterprises are mostly in a stable price mentality and wait-and-see attitude. Some enterprises cut prices and make profits in shipment. However, the market as a whole is still in a downturn, and it is difficult to get a good boost. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of March 18, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 5950-6350 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is around 6080-6210 yuan / ton, the interval price of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is about 6080-6230 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is around 6050-6100 yuan / ton. The real deal can be negotiated.

 

In terms of Futures: the main PVC v2005 contract fell in shock, closing at 6055 yuan / ton, compared with – 110 yuan on the previous trading day; trading volume was 120748, + 44667; positions were 152462, – 7638, base difference was 95 yuan, + 100 yuan; 5-9 price difference was – 120 yuan, – 0 yuan.

 

sulphamic acid

Industry chain: on March 16, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell sharply, falling below $30 per barrel again, and the main contract was 28.70 yuan / barrel, down $3.03 (- 9.55%). Saudi Arabia and Russia have had serious disagreements over production reduction agreements, which led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices. It fell to its lowest level since 2017. Unable to support the price of ethylene, so business analysts expect the price of ethylene to keep a narrow decline in the future. In terms of calcium carbide, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly, and the future market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region in mid March might fall slightly.

 

 

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on March 18, 2020, there was a total of one kind of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which natural rubber (0.21%) rose. There are 10 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and the top three products were cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber (- 2.86%), styrene butadiene rubber (- 2.69%) and PA6 (- 1.71%). The average price of this day was – 0.76%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

PVC analysts of the business club think that the current PVC market is weak and the overall market is slightly depressed. The trend of futures is not good, the awareness of spot price is strong, but the pattern of supply over demand is hard to change in a short time, and the price is slightly reduced and interest is shipped. It is expected that the PVC market will not improve in the short term. The future market should pay more attention to the trend of crude oil, futures and downstream resumption.

Sulfamic acid