1、 Price trend:
According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the domestic ABS market continued its previous weak trend in the middle and late March, and the spot market price decreased. As of Thursday, March 26, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 11500.00 yuan / ton, down 5.35% from the average price level of the second weekend in March.
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2、 Analysis of influencing factors:
Industry chain: ABS upstream, the recent styrene market decline. Domestic styrene prices fell in the first half of the month due to bad news from crude oil chemical industry. To the second half of the month is directly reflected in the weak trend of the cost side dragging down the price of styrene. At present, the market supply is good and the social inventory is high. Downstream still maintain just need to take goods, business confidence is insufficient, bearish aftermarket. The market lacks strong support and on-site trading is generally low. It is expected that styrene will continue to operate in a weak way in the near future;
In the first half of the month, acrylonitrile was also affected by the negative news of crude oil chemical industry. In addition, new production capacity has been added in the near future, which made the site bearish. The downstream return rate is lower than that before the festival, and just need a small amount of goods, so it is difficult to improve in a short time due to the shrinking demand. At present, the market is lack of positive boost, and the mentality of the industry is low. It is expected that the market of acrylonitrile will not improve in the near future;
In recent years, the domestic butadiene market has continued a weak downward trend. The macro negative news such as the sharp drop of crude oil has led to the cautious attitude of domestic businesses. The downturn of downstream inquiry has dragged down the pressure on supplier prices, and the overall market focus has continued to fall. Short term terminal demand has a short-term impact on the overall industry chain. Although there is no significant negative sign of the main synthetic rubber in the downstream, the narrowing of the price gap leads to poor expectations in the later period, and the atmosphere of butadiene spot market is low. It is said that some of the spot goods in East China last week have export plans, but under the pressure of the economic environment, it is difficult to fundamentally ease the contradiction between supply and demand of spot goods; in addition, the transaction of northeast goods is not smooth, and the short-term market trend is short. Short term domestic butadiene market weak downward trend is hard to change, it is suggested to pay attention to the news and spot transaction guidance;
3、 Future forecast:
Business analysts believe that: in the second half of March, the ABS market continued to decline, and the decline in various brands of spot goods expanded. Cost side of the upstream three materials are not good in the near future, the support for the cost side is weak. At present, the spot supply of ABS is relatively sufficient, but the downstream demand is weak. The news outside the market was short, and the confidence of the merchants was hit, so they actively reduced the price of goods. It is expected that domestic ABS prices will continue to weaken in the near future.