1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of octanol in Shandong Province was temporarily stable this week. This week, the average ex factory price of main octanol in Shandong was 6916.67 yuan / ton, down 14.61% year on year. Overall, this week’s octanol market was temporarily stable, with the January 17 octanol commodity index at 50.86.

2、 Market analysis

（1） Products:

At present, the operating rate of domestic octanol plant is acceptable; Hualu Hengsheng’s 80000 T / a octanol plant is operating normally, and this week’s offer is firm; the annual capacity of Jiangsu Huachang Chemical octanol plant is 80000 tons, and there is no maintenance plan.

This week, the ex factory quotation of Shandong mainstream octanol manufacturers is temporarily stable: Hualu Hengsheng’s ex factory quotation of octanol this weekend is 6900 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jianlan chemical’s quotation of octanol this weekend is 6950 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s quotation of octanol this weekend is 6900 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

（2） Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: propylene market fell slightly this week. The quotation dropped from 7227.08 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7211.25 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.22%, down 8.72% year on year. The price of raw materials in the upstream market fell slightly, which had a negative impact on the price of octanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

Downstream market situation: this week, DOP factory price is temporarily stable. The DOP price is not 7300.00 yuan / ton, down 13.95% year on year. Downstream customers are less active in purchasing octanol, the demand for octanol is general, and the low price consolidation of DOP has a negative impact on octanol market. The aftermarket operators mostly wait and see the trend of DOP.

3、 Future forecast

In late January, the trend of Shandong octanol market may fluctuate slightly. After the adjustment in December, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The upstream propylene price fell slightly, the cost support was weak, the downstream DOP market was low and consolidated, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was weak. According to the octanol analyst of business agency, the octanol market in Shandong in late January may fluctuate slightly under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

This week, the potassium chloride market is not good, the price is low, and the potassium sulfate can only hover at the low level, and the transaction change is not big. The mainstream quotation continues to maintain stability at the virtual high level, and the industry’s operating rate is slightly. Although the overall demand for Mannheim potassium sulfate is not strong, the overall price trend is stable. Different from the recent stable situation in Mannheim, the price of potassium sulfate in the water salt system of Xinjiang and Qinghai is falling down, and it is still not expected to be ideal in the future. It is understood that the current arrival price range of 50 powder and 52% powder in the water salt system is about 2350-2600 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of potassium sulphate of business association think that: the demand for potassium sulphate is not strong, there is still some pressure on inventory, and the cost support is weak, and it is expected that the market of potassium sulphate will not improve substantially in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market price of propylene (Shandong) in China this week was generally stable, with a slight downward trend on Friday. At the beginning of the week, the average price of enterprises is the weekly high price, 7227 yuan / ton; at the end of the week, the average price of enterprises is the weekly low price, 7211 yuan / ton, with a weekly decline of 0.22%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Product: affected by international crude oil, domestic propylene price rebounded from the bottom at the end of December, rising continuously. On January 5 and 6, it was generally stable, on January 7 and 8, it was stable on January 9, it was continuously increased on January 10 and 11, it was stable on the whole line on December 12, it was up about 50 yuan / ton again on March 13, it was stable on January 14, and it was down about 50 yuan / ton for some enterprises on December 17. At present, the market turnover is between 6850 and 7300 About RMB / ton, the mainstream price is 7150-7200 RMB / ton. Recently, some domestic and foreign dehydrogenation units have been shut down to reduce the load, and the supply is still tight.

Industry chain: upstream, the recent international crude oil price is unstable, with a significant decline, but the crude oil price picked up slightly yesterday, which has a certain impact on propylene market.

This week, the PP market remained stable, the price remained unchanged, and the futures market rose and fell slightly, with little impact on propylene.

In the near future, acrylic acid slightly increased, with a weekly increase of 0.82%. It is expected that acrylic acid market will mainly run at a high level in the short term, with some positive impact on propylene.

This week’s propylene oxide market remained stable, unchanged, but at the beginning of the week, it was down 2.03% from last week. It is expected that the propylene oxide market will maintain stability in the short term, with limited impact on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin prices fell slightly this week, with a weekly decline of 0.47%. In the future, it may be narrow range finishing operation, with limited impact on propylene.

This week, the domestic price of n-butanol rose slightly, with a weekly increase of 0.28%. It is expected that the domestic market of n-butanol will run smoothly around the Spring Festival, with little impact on propylene.

Octanol prices are all stable this week, with little impact on propylene.

The price of phenol Market in Shandong Province is stable this week, with little impact on propylene.

Acetone market in Shandong held steady after rising at the beginning of the week, with a weekly increase of 4.08%, which had a certain positive impact on propylene.

Isopropanol market price slightly decreased this week, with a weekly decline of 0.37%. It is expected that the future market will be stable, with limited impact on propylene market.

3、 Future forecast

According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of business society, in general, the propylene market has been stable in recent days, with a slight decline over the weekend. At present, the change range of crude oil market is limited, and the downstream operating rate has also declined slightly. However, the shutdown situation of the unit is still the same, and the supply is still tight, so it is expected that the propylene market will be relatively cold in recent days, and the price will be mainly stable.

1. Trade name: silicon metal (441 × 3)

2. Latest price (January 15, 2020): 11858.33 yuan / ton

The price of 441 × silicon in each region is as follows:

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 11300-11400 yuan / ton, in Sichuan is 11600-11700 yuan / ton, in Kunming is 11600-11700 yuan / ton, in Shanghai is 12400-12600 yuan / ton, in Tianjin port is 11900-12100 yuan / ton, in Huangpu port is 11900-12100 yuan / ton 。

3. Analysis points:

Production end: since January, the operation rate of manufacturers in Southwest China (Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou) has continued to be low in the early stage. It is reported that the operating rates in Sichuan and Yunnan have declined to around 20%, and most of the open furnace plants produce chemical grade silicon, and the inventory of the closed silicon plants has declined significantly, while in Fujian and Guizhou, due to the factor of electricity price, there are not many starts.

 
At present, social inventory has declined significantly. On the one hand, based on the factory operating rate, on the other hand, due to the consumer end, domestic trade and foreign trade are in stock before.

Consumer end: Recently, domestic aluminum alloy and polysilicon enterprises prepared goods years ago, and bidding for some silicone plants has been carried out in succession. Orders for low-grade silicon are surging in silicon production plants, while high-grade silicon is released due to quarterly bidding orders from large foreign factories.

Social inventory continued to move down, market expectations rose, producers’ willingness to hold prices strengthened, and commodity traders’ psychological prices increased.

4. Future forecast: close to the Spring Festival, coupled with tight freight, it is expected that the short-term stable and strong operation of silicon metal will prevail.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin fell slightly this week. On January 6, the average ex factory price of 52 domestic first-class chlorinated paraffin products was 5033 yuan / ton, and on January 12, the average ex factory price was 4933 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 1.99%. Up to now, the commodity index of chlorinated paraffin on January 13 is 73.45, which is the same as yesterday, 32.88% lower than the highest point of 109.43 (2013-12-03), and 15.04% higher than the lowest point of 63.85 on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: at present, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4600-5400 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4600-5400 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 5300 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Central China is 4700-5500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4700-5400 yuan / ton 。 The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 4800-5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is about 4800-5500 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the overall transaction atmosphere of the current market is general, and the demand is weak. The price of wax in upstream raw material liquid remained stable, and the market price of liquid chlorine was slightly reduced. Raw material market is low.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there are 27 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are bisphenol A (9.65%), glycol (7.92%), ammonium chloride (5.09%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are caustic soda (- 5.22%), chloroform (- 4.55%), sodium metabisulfite (- 3.79%). This week’s average was 0.35%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffin in business association believe that due to poor raw material market, falling price, cost reduction of chlorinated paraffin and weak terminal demand. It is expected that the weak finishing of chlorinated paraffin in the later stage will be the main one.