According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, there has been a slight rebound in lithium carbonate recently. As of July 1st, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in China was 61666 yuan/ton, up 2.44% month on month and down 38.33% year-on-year; The benchmark price of domestic industrial grade lithium carbonate trading company is 59466 yuan/ton, up 0.9% month on month and down 37.67% year-on-year.
Two major policies are being implemented to drive up prices
On June 26th, the General Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the implementation plan for deepening the green and low-carbon standardization of industry and information technology, proposing to promote the formulation and revision of more than 100 standards in the field of green and low-carbon by 2027, gradually improve the standard system, further enhance the efficiency of standardization work, and release positive policy signals to the new energy market.
On June 26th, the National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference for June, during which it was proposed that the commission will work with relevant parties to make the consumption of new energy a key focus of the construction of a new energy system, deeply implement support policies for various links such as power generation, transmission, and regulation, and continue to promote the high-quality development of new energy.
The fundamentals remain bearish
Due to price rebound, there is a trend of production recovery on the supply side.
The demand side is basically stable, with a flat performance. Although the battery side production has increased, the demand growth rate is not as fast as the supply side increment.
The data analyst of Business Society’s lithium carbonate believes that although there is a slight rebound trend in the price of lithium carbonate, the fundamentals are difficult to support further price rebound. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to fluctuate weakly in the near future, and specific market changes still need to be monitored.

1、 Price trend
According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall downward trend of caustic soda in June. At the beginning of the month, the average price of caustic soda in Shandong region was 885 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the price of caustic soda in Shandong region was 835 yuan/yuan, a decrease of 5.65% and an increase of 5.16% compared to the same period last year. On June 29th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 784 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 44.00% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and up 31.10% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to survey data from Shengyi Society, the overall price of caustic soda is declining. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 760-850 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 870-950 yuan/ton in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of 2700-2800 yuan/ton (converted to 100%) in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. This month, the price of caustic soda has declined, with no significant fluctuations in the supply side of Shandong region. Alumina is mostly purchased on demand, and non aluminum deliveries are clearly cautious. The main downstream procurement prices have been lowered, and there is no positive support for caustic soda prices.
Business Society analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been weak, and downstream demand in China has been average. The overall inventory level of enterprises is not high, and the main demand is for replenishment. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a stable operation in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market remained stable with small fluctuations in June, with some spot prices of certain brands experiencing narrow declines. As of June 30th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 14476.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.91% compared to early June.
cause analysis
On the supply side, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises increased in June. Enterprises have lowered their operating rates, and the industry’s operating rate has dropped to around 79%. The weekly average production has been narrowly reduced to 63000 tons, with limited production losses within the month and a lack of arrangements for future market downturns. In addition, PC inventory has remained high for a long time, and there is ample supply of goods on site. Manufacturers and midstream inventory levels remain high, with no reduction in shipping pressure, and there has been no improvement in the market supply side’s support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that bisphenol A rose and then fell back in June, and the magnitude was limited. The upstream crude oil market in the far end of the range fluctuated sharply after the rise, and the market had poor transmission effect on the direct raw materials acetone and phenol for PC. Meanwhile, there has been little change in demand for bisphenol A, and the market lacks further upward momentum. Overall, the rise in bisphenol A prices within the month followed by a pullback has provided moderate support for PC costs.
On the demand side: In June, with the gradual warming of the domestic climate, the downstream factories of PC experienced a decrease in load, and the main demand for stocking was weak, gradually entering the traditional off-season for consumption, further dragging down the PC consumption end. Due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site supply, the supply and demand contradiction has not improved throughout the month. Currently, terminal enterprises are cautious in purchasing new orders, and their trading performance continues to be dominated by contract delivery. Merchants tend to have a wait-and-see attitude, buyers are resistant to high priced goods, and the flow of goods in the market is slow. Overall, the demand side has weak support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
The domestic PC market experienced consolidation after a decline in June. The upward trend of upstream bisphenol A market is limited, and it has fallen slightly at the end of the month, which has limited support for the cost value of PC. The overall load of domestic PC aggregation plants has increased, while the pattern of strong supply remains unchanged. Downstream demand is at a low season level, and businesses are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. On the one hand, industry inventory remains high, and on the other hand, PC prices are low, with limited room for decline. Currently, the market is experiencing fluctuating positive news, and there is insufficient vitality in supply and demand. It is expected that the PC market will continue to focus on consolidation in the future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of June 27th, the price of 0 # zinc was 22568 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 2.95% compared to the zinc price of 21992 yuan/ton on June 23rd.
This week’s market analysis
Last week, zinc prices continued to decline, and in this context, downstream companies have increased their willingness to purchase at low prices and replenish inventory. As a result, zinc prices experienced a slight rebound in the second half of the week. However, the order situation in the terminal market has not shown significant improvement, and under the sustained effect of the off-season, companies generally hold a pessimistic attitude towards the future trend of zinc prices. Therefore, after a brief rebound, the zinc price adjusted downwards again.
Raw material end
The mines in northern China will basically complete the resumption of production work. At the same time, the domestic production of zinc concentrate will continue to maintain a release trend. Although the window for importing zinc concentrate in June will be closed, goods with previously locked prices will continue to flow into the market. Overall, the supply of domestic zinc concentrate is expected to remain relatively loose in June, and there is still a trend of further increase in processing fees.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, overseas listed zinc projects have successfully released production as planned, resulting in a year-on-year increase in global zinc concentrate production from January to April. At the same time, the import volume of domestic zinc concentrate also showed a year-on-year increase trend, and the inventory days of raw materials in domestic zinc smelters increased month on month, reaching a relatively high level in the same period of history. In addition, the concentrate processing fee (TC) remains stable and has slightly increased, further enhancing the profit margin of zinc smelters and strengthening their smelting enthusiasm. It is expected that the supply of refined zinc will increase.
On the demand side, the operating rates of downstream galvanizing, die-casting, and zinc oxide industries have declined month on month. At present, the domestic real estate market is still in a downward cycle, the rush to install in the photovoltaic industry has come to an end, the production schedule of the home appliance industry is showing a downward trend, and the automotive industry is facing the problem of increasing inventory pressure. There are signs of overall weak demand in reality.
Inventory end
This week, LME zinc inventory showed a month on month decline, while the spot discount rate has narrowed. Domestic zinc spot inventory also showed a month on month decline, while spot premiums showed a downward trend. The global zinc inventory continues the process of destocking.
comprehensive analysis
Recently, the zinc concentrate processing fee (TC) has remained stable and shown an upward trend. Although there has been a significant increase in the domestic zinc production plan for June, based on the actual weekly production data, it may be difficult to achieve the expected level. At the same time, the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates is gradually heating up. In addition, the strike at a zinc smelter in Peru has raised concerns in the market about a decrease in zinc supply, which has led to a strong upward trend in zinc prices.

Recently (6.18-6.25), the butadiene rubber market has been weak and declining. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 25th, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 11800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.99% from 12040 yuan/ton on June 18th. The price of raw material butadiene has slightly decreased, but the cost of butadiene rubber still has support; The production of butadiene rubber is basically stable; Downstream semi steel tire production has slightly decreased, providing support for the demand for butadiene rubber. As of June 25th, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 11700~12000 yuan/ton.
Recently (6.18-6.25), the price of butadiene has been weak and slightly lower, and the cost of butadiene rubber continues to be supported. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 25th, the price of butadiene was 9133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.79% from 9300 yuan/ton on June 18th.
Recently (6.18-6.25), the overall stability of the Shunding plant in China has been around 6.60%.
Demand side: Recently (6.18-6.25), there has been a slight fluctuation in downstream tire production, which provides strong support for the demand in the butadiene rubber market. As of June 22, the production of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has slightly decreased to around 7.3%; Around 6.10% of tire companies in Shandong have started construction on all steel tires.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the raw material butadiene market will consolidate weakly, and the cost of butadiene rubber will still be supported; The production of downstream semi steel tires has slightly decreased, and the supply and demand are running weakly. Overall, it is expected that the market for butadiene rubber will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the later period.