1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of July 24th, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 8133.33 yuan/ton, with stable price operation as the main factor, weak downstream demand, and high inventory operation, mainly driven by rigid demand procurement.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost, the upstream pure benzene market continues to operate and consolidate at a low level, while the spot prices in the East China pure benzene market continue to consolidate at a low level. Low end prices are the main focus of transactions, and there are signs of price rebound. The price of Dongying Wanda Tianhong pure benzene has been raised by 40 yuan to 8570 yuan/ton, and the plant’s approximately 20000 ton pure benzene unit will be shut down for maintenance in mid June.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the upstream cost support is insufficient, inventory is high, and downstream demand is insufficient. It is expected that the short-term stable operation of the cyclohexane market will be the main trend, with a mainstream price range of 8200 yuan/ton.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has stopped falling and rebounded, with some spot prices of certain grades rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 23, the average price of ABS sample products was 12000 yuan/ton, an increase or decrease of 1.48% compared to the price level on July 1.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: At the beginning of this month, the domestic ABS industry’s load was roughly 70% of the operating level at the end of last month. Recently, companies such as North Huajin and LG Yongxing have undergone varying degrees of maintenance and load reduction, resulting in an overall operating rate of around 63%. Manufacturers tend to have confidence in their operations, and product pricing has generally increased slightly. Under the cover of the aggregation plant, merchants have slightly increased their shipments. The overall inventory of the industry has been digested, and the benefits of supply contraction have been realized. Overall, the supply side has increased its support for ABS spot prices.

Cost factor: Recently, the trend of the upstream three materials of ABS has been weak, providing average support for the cost side of ABS. Among them, the capacity expansion of acrylonitrile in the second half of the year is significant, and the increase in supply has enveloped the market. The expected trend of acrylonitrile prices is bearish and the profitability of enterprises is not optimistic. After the domestic market fell, it remained stagnant, and the upstream raw material propylene market fluctuated and consolidated, with average cost support. Downstream demand continues to be weak, and many industry players maintain a cautious attitude towards the future market, mainly based on their previous offers.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has been stable but weak, and the overall market momentum is not high. Downstream demand maintains a weak demand for essential goods, leading to a decrease in market entry enthusiasm. The market lacks actual transaction support, and offers are dragged down. It is expected that the butadiene market will maintain a weak and stable trend in the short term, and there may still be a slight downward trend.

Recently, the styrene market has continued to be weak, with prices experiencing a slight decline. International oil prices have fluctuated and the pure benzene market has dropped significantly, with poor cost support. In the early stage, the price of styrene rose to a relatively high level, and buyers’ resistance to high-end sources increased, resulting in a decrease in market trading volume. It is expected that the future market situation of styrene may be weak and difficult to change.

In terms of demand: As we enter late July, there has been no improvement in the main terminal demand for ABS. Some home appliance manufacturers are maintaining holiday shutdowns, and the overall load position of downstream factories is low, with weak stocking operations and a focus on basic needs. Some traders sell at high prices, but the overall market momentum tends to be light, and the speed of source circulation is average. Overall, the demand side is not providing strong support to the market.

Future forecast

Recently, the price of ABS in China has been rising and then trending sideways. The overall stalemate of the upstream three materials is weak, and the cost support for ABS is average. The production of ABS polymerization plants has been reduced in the early stage, and the favorable effect of supply contraction has been realized. However, in terms of overall production capacity loss, changes in supply pressure may be limited, and there is still ample supply of goods on site. The demand side has weak demand, and the market situation is obvious during the off-season, resulting in weak trading. Overall, it is expected that the ABS market will remain stable in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of PET water bottle grade has rebounded this week, with an average price of 7192 yuan/ton as of July 12th.

Raw material market: Recently, international oil prices have rebounded. As of the close on July 18th, the price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $82.82 per barrel, a decrease of 0.04%; The London Brent crude oil futures price for September delivery closed at $85.11 per barrel, an increase of 0.04%. The decline in crude oil and raw material prices during the week, insufficient support for PET costs, and no significant improvement in on-site trading have also created resistance to the continued upward trend of the PET market. In terms of PTA, PTA prices have fallen this week, and currently the mainstream PTA quotation is around 5800-5900 yuan/ton for self pickup. As the operating rate rebounds and PTA fundamentals decline, it is expected that prices will remain volatile next week.

After entering the second half of the year, facing the increasing losses in the industry, PET factories have begun to take measures to reduce production and maintain prices, and plans to put new production capacity into operation may also be delayed. Recently, a 150000 ton polyester bottle chip device in East China has been shut down for maintenance, and there are no confirmed questions when driving. Another 250000 ton polyester bottle slicing device in East China has been converted to slicing. Two sets of 650000 ton polyester bottle chip devices in Zhejiang have been shut down for maintenance for 45 days.

The third quarter of 2024 coincides with summer vacation, and the peak travel season is driving an increase in travel volume. At the same time, the concert economy and industry conferences have all exploded at an unexpected speed, and it is expected that the number of domestic tourists will increase by about 150% year-on-year in the second half of the year. High frequency personnel turnover drives consumption in the soft drink industry and catering industry. In addition, the demand for PET sheets and other packaging, oil and seasoning packaging industries will also maintain a stable growth trend. The downstream demand side has also shown relatively optimistic expectations. Especially in the soft drink packaging industry, as the main downstream consumer group of polyester bottle chips, its consumption is expected to continue to grow with the increase of personnel mobility and the recovery of terminal consumption.

In the third quarter of 2024, the national summer vacation will stimulate public travel enthusiasm, and the tourism market will usher in a comprehensive revival. It is expected that the number of tourists will increase by 150% year-on-year. At the same time, the prosperity of concert economy and industry conferences promotes cultural exchange and economic development. The high-frequency personnel flow has driven the rise of the soft drink and catering industries, which in turn has led to a surge in demand for packaging materials such as PET sheets, resulting in stable growth in the food packaging industry. In the future packaging industry, as the main downstream consumer group of polyester bottle chips, the consumption volume is expected to continue to rise with the prosperity of the market. Despite the continuous reduction in supply and optimistic demand expectations, the polyester bottle chip market is still under pressure, with weak price increases. This is mainly due to multiple factors such as fierce market competition, reduced processing fees, and increased uncertainty in the international market.

The PET analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the future, with the further recovery of downstream consumption and changes in raw material costs, the PET market is expected to form a new price trend. However, in the context of intense supply-demand competition and increased uncertainty in the international market, price fluctuations in the PET market will still be relatively frequent. Therefore, for relevant enterprises and investors, it is particularly important to closely monitor market dynamics and flexibly adjust business strategies.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of acetic acid has risen this week. As of July 19th, the average market price of acetic acid was 3350 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the price of 3250 yuan/ton on July 12th, with an overall increase of 3.08%.

At the beginning of the week, the price of acetic acid rose, mainly due to the malfunction of the acetic acid plant in the early stage, the reduction of enterprise inventory, and the continuation of the positive sentiment in the market, leading to another upward trend in the market. Afterwards, as the faulty device resumed normal operation, the market supply increased, and downstream consumers consumed more inventory, the enthusiasm for entering the market weakened. However, the manufacturer’s inventory was not under pressure at the moment, and overall production and sales were still acceptable. The stable quotation in the later part of the week was the main factor. In terms of traders, due to excessive stockpiling and weakened downstream demand, the price of acetic acid has been lowered, and the overall acetic acid market remained strong at a high level during the week.

As of July 19th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ July 12th/ July 19th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 3175 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton/ 0

North China region/ 3325 yuan/ton/ 3375 yuan/ton/ 50

Shandong region/ 3250 yuan/ton/ 3350 yuan/ton/ 100

Jiangsu region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton/ 25

Zhejiang region/ 3250 yuan/ton/ 3275 yuan/ton/ 25

The upstream raw material methanol market is weak and declining. As of July 19th, the average price in the domestic market was 2500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.34% compared to the price of 2560 yuan/ton on July 12th. The methanol supply side equipment has undergone extensive maintenance, resulting in a decrease in production capacity and interest rates. However, the downstream sector continues to be weak, and traders have sufficient supply of goods, with average receiving sentiment. Market trading is poor, and methanol spot prices have fallen from high levels.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is experiencing a strong upward trend. On July 19th, the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 5567.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.16% compared to the price of 5450.00 yuan/ton on July 12th. The upstream acetic acid market remains strong at a high level, and the cost support of acetic anhydride is favorable. The downstream of acetic anhydride follows suit according to demand, and the trading atmosphere in the market is still acceptable. The upstream market has driven the upward trend of acetic anhydride prices.

Market forecast: According to the acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society, the main acetic acid factories in the market are currently operating normally, with an increase in market supply and a weakening of downstream demand. There is limited market entry for purchases, and there is a supply-demand game in the market. In addition, some holders intend to lower prices to stimulate shipments. It is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will be weakly consolidated, and downstream follow-up will be closely monitored in the future.

Recently (7.8-7.17), the market price of Shunding rubber has slightly declined. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of July 17, the market price of Shunding rubber in East China was 15160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.79% from 15280 yuan/ton on July 8. The price of raw material butadiene has fallen slightly from a high level; Shunding rubber production continues to remain low; Downstream tire production remains stable, but overall inquiries are cautious and slightly resistant to high priced sources. Shunding rubber futures are consolidating at a high level, and market trading is flat.

Recently (7.8-7.17), the price of butadiene has fallen from a high level, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has slightly decreased, but overall support is still strong. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 17th, the price of butadiene was 13125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.37% from 13725 yuan/ton on July 8th.

Recently (7.8-7.17), the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants has remained at a low level. As of July 17th, the construction of butadiene rubber in China is around 60%.

Demand side: Downstream tire production is currently stable, and demand is supported by the urgent needs of the butadiene rubber market. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources, and butadiene rubber prices are consolidating at a high level. As of July 17th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 6.20%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the high price of raw material butadiene will fall, and there is still support for a slight decrease in the cost center of butadiene rubber; Shunding rubber production remains at a low level and the market supply is tight; In recent times, downstream tire companies have started production steadily, but there is still a high sentiment towards Shunding rubber. Overall, the Shunding rubber market has remained strong in the near future with the support of costs and low production. It is expected that the market for butadiene rubber will mainly experience a narrow consolidation in the later stage.