According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been fluctuating narrowly recently (10.14-10.20). As of October 20th, the spot rubber market price in China’s natural rubber market was around 14458 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.46% from 14391 yuan/ton on the 14th. The high price of natural rubber raw materials is under pressure, which weakens the expected support for the natural rubber market; In addition, downstream tire production resumed after the holiday, providing essential support for natural rubber. In addition, the continued slight destocking of natural rubber inventory at the port has led to a narrow consolidation of the natural rubber market. As of October 20th, the mainstream price for 24 years of Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao latex in Qingdao area is 14300-14550 yuan/ton.
As of October 20th, the price of Thai glue was 54.10 baht/kg, unchanged from October 14th. Although there have been typhoons affecting some rubber cutting operations in Hainan and Yunnan regions of China recently, the overseas weather has improved, and the expected supply of natural rubber raw materials will gradually be released, putting overall pressure on raw material prices.
Recently (10.14-10.20), natural rubber inventory has continued to decrease slightly, which has a greater impact on natural rubber. As of October 19, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 437500 tons, a decrease of 18600 tons or 4.07% compared to the previous period.
After the recent holidays (10.14-10.20), downstream tire production has gradually resumed, providing essential support for the natural rubber market. As of October 17th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has slightly increased to around 7.10%; The production of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong Province has slightly decreased to around 6.4%.
Market forecast: The current high prices of natural rubber raw materials have fallen back, and downstream production is low. However, the overall inventory of Tianjiao Port continues to decline slightly, and it is expected that the natural rubber market will experience weak fluctuations before the holiday.

Aluminum prices slightly strengthened in October
Aluminum prices slightly strengthened in October. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 17, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20960 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from the market average price of 20733.33 yuan/ton on October 1.
The aluminum price has exceeded the 20000 mark and is at a relatively high level in the past 1-2 years. The price of raw material alumina has fallen from its high level, and the profit per ton of aluminum is currently in a relatively good position.
In October, aluminum ingots followed the overall strong operation of non-ferrous metals, which was greatly affected by macro factors to a certain extent.
The recent positive news is as follows:
The game between China and the United States: the United States expands the coverage of high tariffs&the United States imposes additional fees on specific ships, while China imposes special port fees on American ships. (Not directly impacting aluminum exports, affecting expectations).
Policy benefits: Shanghai’s intelligent terminal industry plan and Q4 may introduce consumer stimulus measures (for automobiles and home appliances) to boost demand for high-end aluminum materials.
Overview of October Fundamentals
On the production capacity side, the operating capacity is 44.165 million tons (stable at a high level), and the newly added capacity (280000 tons to be started in Xinjiang) is basically offset by the reduced production (400000 tons in Qinghai Zhonglv and 4.31 million tons in Shandong Weiqiao).
On the cost side, the price of alumina has declined (Guangxi market price is 3030 yuan/ton), pre baked anodes remain stable at 5055 yuan/ton, and thermal coal has slightly rebounded (Q5500 average price is 589 yuan/ton), indicating weak overall cost support.
Changes in aluminum structure: The proportion of aluminum water direct alloying has increased to 73.9%, and the proportion of aluminum ingot delivery products is less than 27%, highlighting the phenomenon of “shortage of ingots” in spot goods.
Demand side: demand differentiation, strong demand resilience for new energy vehicles (with a retail penetration rate of 57.8% for passenger cars in September) and new energy cables (with aluminum rod processing fees maintained at a high level of 550 yuan/ton in Guangdong); Weakness in the building materials industry (Foshan aluminum rod inventory of 62100 tons continues to accumulate)
Inventory change: Social inventory has been reduced. As of October 16th, the social inventory in mainstream areas of China was 615000 tons, which basically consumed the accumulated inventory during the holiday. It is close to 614000 tons on September 25th, and 19000 tons have been reduced from 634000 tons on October 9th.
Stay tuned for the future market
Under the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the macro sentiment of non-ferrous commodities is relatively strong, and aluminum prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall in the short term.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 16th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4020 yuan/ton. In early October, DMF prices showed a weak and stable operation, with a focus on stable but weak negotiations. Insufficient demand suppressed price increases, and the overall price of DMF fell by 0.5% in the first half of the month.
2、 Cause analysis
Market wise: On October 16th, the benchmark price of DMF in Shengyi Society was 4020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5% from the beginning of the month (4040 yuan/ton). The delivery price of bulk water in Shandong and North China markets is concentrated between 3770-3850 yuan/ton. The focus of negotiations is stable but weak, and insufficient demand is suppressing price increases. Currently, the overall DMF market is operating steadily but weakly.
Supply and demand relationship: Downstream procurement is mainly based on essential needs, inventory consumption is slow, and the number of new customers is limited. Currently, the overall operating rate of DMF industry is less than 40%, and the contradiction of oversupply continues. Some capacity expansion projects have been put on hold.
In terms of cost, domestic coal to methanol project approvals are becoming stricter, coke oven gas routes are affected by steel production cuts, Iran’s unstable natural gas supply is causing delays in new production capacity, green methanol has become a new demand highlight due to the International Maritime Organization’s zero emission policy, and MTO plant restarts and some downstream new production support demand.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts believe that in early October, the DMF market showed a stable to weak trend, with a slight decline in prices and an unresolved supply-demand imbalance. In the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of changes in export demand and industry adjustments on prices.

Recently (10.1-10.14), the nitrile rubber market has been weak and declining. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 14th, the price of nitrile rubber was 16550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.30% from 16600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. After the holiday, the fundamentals of nitrile rubber have been weak, and the nitrile rubber market is mainly weak. As of October 14th, the mainstream market price for Lanhua 3305 in East China is around 16200-16200 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for nitrile 3665 in Russia is around 15800-16000 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for Nandi Nitrile 1052 is around 17300 to 17400 yuan/ton.
Recently (10.1-10.14), the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile have significantly decreased, and the cost support for nitrile rubber has weakened significantly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 14th, the price of butadiene was 8446 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.95% from 8886 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of October 14th, the price of acrylonitrile was 7866 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46% from the price of 7983 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
Recently (10.1-10.14), the overall production of nitrile rubber plants in China has been at a high level; As of October 14th, the overall production of nitrile rubber in China is around 9.1%.
During the long holiday, the downstream production of nitrile rubber hoses in China decreased to around 4.4%, and the production of insulation foam decreased to a low of around 4.3%. The overall demand for nitrile rubber downstream was average, which dragged down the nitrile rubber market.
Market forecast: Business Society’s nitrile analyst believes that the cost support for nitrile rubber is currently weak; The low downstream production and high nitrile rubber production have a negative impact on nitrile rubber. Overall, it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will consolidate weakly in the later stage.

The price of acrylic acid this week was on October 14th, and the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 7183.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.21% compared to the beginning of this month (6700.00 yuan/ton). Based on the prices of the past year, its current price of 7183.33 yuan/ton is at the median level, with room for further increase.
1、 Market performance
The most striking feature of the current market is the sharp contrast in price trends between acrylic acid and its main raw material, propylene. However, the price of acrylic acid ignored the weakness of costs and emerged from an independent upward trend. This’ deviation ‘clearly tells us that the core driving force of the current market is not from costs, but from its own supply and demand pattern.
Supply side:
The price of raw material propylene not only continues to decline, but also approaches the lowest level in a year. As of October 14th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6375.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.56% compared to the beginning of this month (6543.25 yuan/ton). This clearly indicates that from a cost perspective, the support for acrylic acid is significantly weakening, and even forming a drag. If analyzed solely from a cost perspective, acrylic acid should bear downward pressure.
Demand side:
Order locking, tight stock: The factory is busy delivering early orders, which means that current production and shipment have been locked in contracts. This directly leads to a shortage of spot resources available for free circulation in the market. When supply is “locked” by pre demand, even if costs decrease, sellers lack the pressure and willingness to lower prices and ship.
The proactive strategy of the factory: In this situation, the primary task of the factory is to ensure profits and stabilize prices, rather than following the price reduction of raw materials. They successfully maintained market sentiment in a strong range by controlling the pace of shipments and maintaining a positive pricing posture, thus achieving price increases against the backdrop of cost collapse.
In summary, the current acrylic acid market is in a critical stage of a game between “weakened cost support” and “tight supply and demand pattern”, with the latter temporarily gaining the upper hand.