I. price trend:
According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the ABS market rose slightly in early December, while the spot price in the domestic market rose narrowly. As of December 6, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 13250.00 yuan / ton, up 1.53% from the beginning of the month.
II. Analysis of influencing factors:
Industry chain: ABS upstream, domestic styrene market slightly explored. In recent days, crude oil and bulk commodities rose steadily and rebounded, driving the market to open higher, and styrene market rebounded. The international prices of raw materials such as ethylene and pure benzene increased slightly. In the downstream, PS, the price fluctuates in a narrow range, and the downstream factories are not willing to prepare goods. Most transactions are based on small orders. In terms of EPS, the price is stable, the downstream replenishment intention is poor, and the overall transaction atmosphere is general. Styrene gradually entered the off-season, the enterprise multi-dimensional rigid procurement, general demand performance. Recently, a large number of imported styrene arrived at the port due to the early channel blockade and the subsequent continuous arrival of imported goods. Recently, the styrene inventory in East China rose, bringing resistance to the rebound of the domestic styrene market. On the whole, it is expected that styrene price rebound this week will be limited, while in the short term, it is still bearish and the price will be consolidated;
In the near future, the spot market of acrylonitrile related products has been warmer, the supply of goods in the field has been reduced, the mentality of traders has been supported, and the offer is firm and partially higher. Although the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is the mainstream, but near the logistics outage, the factory has a certain demand for goods. The acrylonitrile market is expected to rise slightly in the short term;
Butadiene supply price is stable, the market is weak, the information surface guidance is limited, the downstream inquiry continues to be cold, and the offer changes little, mainly wait-and-see. The price of the outside market remained stable. In terms of market, the butadiene market in East China continued to be cold, with low enthusiasm for downstream procurement, limited market turnover, real single negotiation and price consolidation. The butadiene market in Shandong Province has limited changes and stable supply and demand. There is no obvious guidance on the news. The business is mainly waiting and the transaction is cold. The domestic offer price of SBR in the downstream increased slightly, and the operators were cautious. In some areas, the buyer had the behavior of price reduction, but the transaction was not much. Domestic br market is stable. The price offered by the merchants is stable, and the intention of low price shipment is not high. The inquiry atmosphere in the field is flat, and sporadic buyers enter the market for inquiry, and the volume of spot trading is small. There is not much spot circulation in the butadiene market, but the demand continues to be cold and the supply and demand remain stagnant. In the short term, the domestic butadiene market may maintain stable consolidation;
3. Future forecast:
Business analysts believe that: in early December, the ABS market maintained a positive trend, the offer was warm, and the spot prices of various brands rose differently. The cost side of the upstream three materials continued to be adjusted in November, which has certain support for the cost side. On the demand side, it is close to the logistics outage, and there is another news that dangerous chemicals are restricted. Measures such as strict inspection of freight vehicles have resulted in tight logistics and rising costs. The price inquiry of downstream factories has been improved to some extent, but it is still dominated by just in need replenishment. Merchants’ mentality is stable for the time being, and the delivery is based on the market. It is expected that the domestic ABS market will continue to be more positive in the near future. It is suggested to pay close attention to the supply side trend.