1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, on the 26th, the nickel price continued to rise. The spot nickel quotation was 147083.33 yuan / ton, up 2.74% from the previous trading day, 14.79% from the beginning of the year and 35.66% year-on-year.

Spot nickel prices continued to rise slightly, with a single day increase of 4000 yuan / ton. The rise of nickel price is related to the increased demand boosted by the development of new energy industry. First, BHP Billiton, a global mining giant, suddenly announced that it had signed a nickel supply agreement with Tesla, a new energy vehicle giant, which was provided by its company Western nickel. Then Toyota suddenly announced that the “bipolar NiMH battery” had been put into mass production and installed in the hybrid system. In terms of supply, affected by the weather and epidemic situation, Philippine shipments are also relatively small, and nickel ore prices are high. According to the latest estimate of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global demand for cobalt and nickel will increase 20 times in the next 20 years, resulting in nickel shortage.

Forecast: the supply is tight and the demand is optimistic. It is expected that the nickel price will still operate strongly in the short term.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of activated carbon was 9066 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week and 9166 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with a price increase of 1.10%.

The domestic price of activated carbon is strong. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan / ton; Enquiries in the domestic activated carbon market have increased. There is a demand for replenishment in the downstream before the festival. The downstream mentality is good. Most shipments are delivered according to orders, and more attention is paid to the downstream transaction.

Activated carbon is rich in raw materials, including coal, sawdust, fruit shell and straw. Activated carbon suitable for water treatment is prepared through a series of processes. At the same time, activated carbon manufacturers are constantly improving the performance of activated carbon, increasing its working capacity and effectively adsorbing and purifying wastewater.

Forecast: the activated carbon market mostly takes goods on demand, and basically purchases with small orders to meet normal production. Most traders maintain shipment and reduce positions, and the short-term activated carbon price may be dominated by shock consolidation.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of July 23, the average price of lithium iron phosphate, a domestic high-class power product, was 51000.00 yuan / ton. Recently, the market has operated smoothly, the focus of negotiation is stable, the downstream just needs to purchase, the price fluctuation range is small, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the negotiation atmosphere is flat.

This week, the lithium iron phosphate market mainly operated stably, with balanced supply and demand, stable price trend, balanced supply and demand, stable operation of upstream lithium carbonate, slow rise, main supply contract customers and limited number of new customers. At present, the mainstream quotation range of lithium iron phosphate power type is 49000-53000 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of energy storage lithium iron phosphate is 44000-48000 yuan / ton, The price range of upstream battery grade lithium carbonate is 87000-91000 yuan / ton, and the price range of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 80000-85000 yuan / ton. The upstream lithium carbonate mainly operates smoothly and the trend is relatively stable.

On July 22, the chemical index was 1101 points, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 84.11% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020（ Note: period refers to from December 1, 2011 to now)

Analysts of lithium iron phosphate in business society believe that lithium iron phosphate is expected to run smoothly next week with limited fluctuation range（ If you want to get more information about goods and master the price of goods, you can subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community.

Recently, the domestic liquid ammonia market has continued to rise. According to the monitoring of the business society, after the sharp rise in May, the liquid ammonia has been consolidating at a high level from June to early July. Since mid July, the liquid ammonia market has started again and continued to rise, with a strong increase. According to the monitoring of the business society, the liquid ammonia has increased by 6.72% in the past two weeks (July 12-22). At present, the price range of Shandong market is 4500-4800 yuan / ton, and some quotations have broken through the 4800 mark, reaching the highest level in history. The soaring price of liquid ammonia is the result of the dual effects of higher cost and tight supply and demand.

With the increase of market inflation expectation, as domestic commodities usher in a new round of rising cycle, especially the upstream coal of liquid ammonia, the rise is stronger. Good cost support is obvious. In addition, the supply of liquid ammonia continues to be tight. At present, it is still affected by the low operation rate of domestic devices and the excessive number of maintenance devices, and the supply has decreased significantly, which leads to the shortage of supply in the market and the price of liquid ammonia has gone up sharply due to factors such as dealers’ speculation.

On the cost side, the domestic coal market is booming. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of July 22, the price of steam coal rose by 7.54% in July. The price has broken through the high point of may in the last round of rise, rising by more than 80% compared with the same period last year（ (see above)

On the supply side, tight supply is the direct cause of the rise in the price of liquid ammonia. The operating rate of ammonia enterprises is declining, and routine maintenance and device failures occur frequently in many regions of China. According to statistics, in July, several sets of devices were stopped in Lianghu, northwest and Hebei. In the last two weeks, large plants in Shandong and Hebei have entered the maintenance period. The maintenance period generally has a long time span of nearly one month, which has a great impact on the production capacity. The market has gradually spread from the shortage of local supply at the beginning of this month to the shortage of ammonia in many regions of China.

From the downstream perspective, urea has been fluctuating at a high level since June. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of urea has also risen in the past two weeks, with an increase of 2.21%, 67.81% over the same period last year. The maintenance of urea plant is still the same. Recently, the production reduction and resumption of urea enterprises are staggered, and the start-up recovery is slow. The daily output is about 160000 tons, and the supply side is tight. At the same time, enterprise inventory and social inventory are also maintained at a low position. Superimposed printing mark landing, domestic market mentality has been boosted.

In terms of demand, there is a small amount of topdressing in North and East China, and the agricultural demand is fair; The downstream compound fertilizer, rubber sheet factory and melamine enterprise started well, and most of them were purchased and used at any time, and followed up at a proper amount. According to the monitoring of business news agency, monoammonium phosphate has also been on the rise in the past two weeks. At present, it has reached the stage peak. In the last two weeks (July 12-22), it has increased by 2.21% so far.

In the future, the tight supply of domestic ammonia is difficult to solve in the short term. In addition, with the cost support brought by the high price of upstream raw materials, the price of liquid ammonia may remain high, which does not rule out the possibility of continuing to rise.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of July 21, the average quoted price of silicone DMC in the mainstream area of data monitoring was 30633 yuan / ton, which was 67 yuan / ton higher than that on July 14 (30566 yuan / ton), an increase of 0.22%.

Since the beginning of July, China’s domestic silicone DMC market has been running steadily at a high level, with little fluctuation in market price. As of July 14, the reference price of silicone DMC is around 30500-30900 yuan / ton. In late July, a monomer factory in Shandong broke the calm of the silicone DMC market. On the 15th and 16th, the factory price of silicone DMC was slightly increased by 100 yuan / ton for two consecutive days, and the factory price of silicone DMC was adjusted to 30700 yuan / ton. Most of the other monomer factories continued to maintain stable prices in the early stage, and the market continued to consolidate at a high level, Shandong large factories once again raised the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC to 30800 yuan / ton, and other individual monomer factories also rose sporadically. The downstream demand of silicone DMC weakened. With the continuous high raw material level, the downstream delivery became more cautious. So far, as of July 21, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of silicone DMC is 30666 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than that on July 1, or 0.34%.

Upstream, since July, the overall trend of domestic silicon metal market is stable. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of July 20, the domestic reference price of metallic silicon was 14450 yuan / ton, up 0.58% compared with July 1 (14366.67 yuan / ton).

Forecast of silicone DMC Market

At present, the trend of silicone DMC downstream products is all the way strong under the high support of raw materials, but the terminal downstream demand has been weakened under the sustained high level. Therefore, the silicone DMC analysts of the business community believe that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market will continue to have insufficient upward momentum, and the market will mostly be high consolidation operation.