According to the price monitoring data of the business association, as of February 28, the average reference price of the mainstream regional average price of domestic n-propanol containing packaging was around 10733 yuan / ton. Compared with the price in February and early February (reference price of 10866 yuan / ton on February 1), the average price decreased 133 yuan / ton, or 1.23%.

Weak supply and demand in early February, positive propanol market fell slightly

Since the beginning of February, affected by the downward external market of raw material ethylene, the weakening of n-propanol cost support, the stoppage of logistics before the festival and the reduction of downstream demand, the domestic industrial n-propanol market was weak and fell, and the spot suppliers reduced the ex factory price of n-propanol by 200-300 yuan / ton. Then, the market was weak and stable until before the Spring Festival, as of February 15 The factory quotation of n-propanol bulk water in Shandong Province was around 9600-10000 yuan / ton, including packaging price around 10500-11000 yuan / ton. The reference factory price of n-propanol in Nanjing is 9500-9800 yuan / ton.

After the festival, supply and demand gradually recovered, and the market of n-propanol was stable and slightly upward

During the holiday, the domestic industrial n-propanol market maintained stable operation. On the first day of construction, the market quotation of n-propanol in Nanjing and Shandong was basically the same as that before the festival. By the end of February, the market supply was normal and the downstream demand was gradually opened. The suppliers of n-propanol secondary market in Shandong Province slightly increased the ex factory price of n-propanol by 100-200 yuan / ton. As of February 28, the reference ex factory price of domestic industrial n-propanol with package was 10733 yuan / ton, which was 33 yuan / ton higher than that on February 11, and 133 yuan lower than that on February 1 /Tons, down 1.23%.

In terms of raw materials, after the Spring Festival, the external market of ethylene showed an overall upward trend. As of the 26th, the price of ethylene in Asia was USD 1047-1055 / T in Northeast Asia and USD 997-1005 / T in Southeast Asia. In the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted us $1156-1168 per ton. In the European ethylene market, FD offers us $1196-1210 / T in northwest Europe, and CIF offers us $1159-1170 / T in northwest Europe. On February 28, the reference price of ethylene was 1092.50 yuan / ton, up 97 yuan / ton or 9.99% compared with February 18 (993.25 yuan / ton).

Normal start-up demand recovers, n-propanol may rise steadily in the future

At present, the production of n-propanol in Nanjing Rongxin is normal, the downstream demand has gradually returned to normal, the supply and demand is relatively stable, the continuous rise of raw materials after the festival and the follow-up of demand have a positive impact on the future trend of n-propanol. Therefore, business community propanol data analysts expect that propanol market will continue to warm up operation, the market as a whole will rise steadily.

According to the data from the commodity list of business news agency, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong has risen recently. On February 28, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1216.67 yuan / ton, and on March 1, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1246.67 yuan / ton. The current price has increased by 6.86% month on month, and the current price has increased by 17.61% year on year.

Recently, the domestic formaldehyde market price has risen. As of March 1, the mainstream ex factory price in Central China is about 1130 yuan / ton, that in North China is 1060 yuan / ton, and that in East China is 1211 yuan / ton. Shandong Linyi Galaxy formaldehyde production capacity of 120000 tons / year formaldehyde plant has been restarted. Recently, the formaldehyde factories in Shandong Province have been started one after another. Formaldehyde manufacturers deliver according to orders, the inventory is low, the market trading atmosphere is gradually improving, and the industry promotes the rise of formaldehyde market.

Upstream methanol situation: the offer price of methanol market in southern Shandong increased by 10-30 yuan / ton to 2250-2270 yuan / ton, and the negotiation intention was to withdraw cash from the plant near 2250-2260 yuan / ton. Linyi received the local goods to negotiate the price to 2250-2260 yuan / ton and sent them to cash exchange. The logistics goods offer price is not available for the time being. The methanol market in the central part of Shandong Province negotiated to deliver RMB 2110-2150 / T to spot exchange. There was no obvious transaction, and most of them stayed on the sidelines. Methanol market narrow rise, can form a certain support for formaldehyde market.

Recently, the weather is getting warmer and the workers are speeding up to return to their posts. The downstream plate factories in Shandong are continuing to resume production, and the demand for formaldehyde is improving, which supports the rise of formaldehyde market, and the market buying and selling atmosphere is good. Formaldehyde market continues to rise.

Recently, the upstream raw material methanol showed an upward trend, with strong cost support, and the demand of downstream plate factories continued to improve. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the chemical branch of business society predicted that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong would mainly rise in the near future.

1、 Price trend

The ex factory price of ISO octanol in Shandong Province rose this week, and it showed a downward trend over the weekend. This week, the average price of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose from 15700.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 16266.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 3.61%, 147.09% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the market of ISO octanol rose this week, and there was a downward trend over the weekend. The commodity index of ISO octanol on February 26 was 119.61.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of manufacturers’ quotations, the factory quotations of mainstream ISO octanol manufacturers in Shandong rose this week: Jianlan chemical quoted 16300 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this weekend, up 300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; lihuayi quoted 16000 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this weekend, up 900 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng quoted 16500 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this week, up 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week Up 500 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of ISO octanol rose slightly this week, with the quoted price rising from 8345.45 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8554.64 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.51%, and a year-on-year increase of 29.97%. The price of raw materials in the upstream market rose slightly, affected by the supply and demand side, which had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

Isooctanol downstream market, DOP factory price rose slightly this week. DOP quotation increased by 1.80% from 13900.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 14150.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 95.62% over the same period of last year. The price of DOP in downstream increased, the enthusiasm of downstream customers for octanol procurement increased, and the demand for ISO octanol was better.

3、 Future forecast

In the first ten days of March, the market trend of isooctanol in Shandong may fluctuate slightly. The upstream propylene market was consolidated at a high level, the raw material support was strong, the downstream DOP market rose slightly, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was enhanced, and the supply of isooctanol was insufficient. Isooctanol analysts of business society think: in early March, under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects, the market of isooctanol in Shandong may fluctuate slightly.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, since mid January, the market of acetic anhydride has continued to rise, and after the festival, the price of acetic anhydride is soaring again. As of February 26, the price of acetic anhydride was 9300.00 yuan / ton, 10.71% higher than 8400.00 yuan / ton before the festival (February 10), and 29.17% higher than that in mid January. After the soaring price of acetic anhydride, can the price be sustained? What’s the future of acetic anhydride market?

Acetic acid price trend

It can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid that since mid January, the price of acetic acid has been rising continuously. Before the festival, the equipment of acetic acid enterprises started at a low level, the downstream customers purchased actively, and the price of acetic acid continues to rise. After the festival, Hualu Hengsheng’s acetic acid equipment was shut down for maintenance, and the supply of domestic acetic acid raw materials decreased. Influenced by the cold wave, the acetic acid manufacturers in selanese, Texas, USA stopped, and the external price of acetic acid soared, stimulating the development of China The price of domestic acetic acid rose. With the resumption of Hualu Hengsheng acetic acid plant, the impact of cold wave in the United States is abating, the supply of acetic acid is normal, and the rising power of acetic acid in the future is insufficient. However, the active procurement in the downstream supports the high level of acetic acid, and the downward pressure of acetic acid price is limited, and the high level of acetic acid price in the future tends to stabilize. The supply of acetic acid, the raw material of acetic anhydride, is insufficient, the price of acetic acid rises sharply, the cost of acetic anhydride rises, and the rising power of acetic anhydride is huge; the price of acetic acid tends to stabilize in the future, the rising power of acetic anhydride weakens, and the downward pressure still exists.

Methanol price trend

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart that the methanol price fluctuated and fell in January, rebounded from the bottom in February, and rose slightly after the festival. Although the rising range of methanol is limited after the festival, the overall cost of acetic anhydride still has a certain supporting role, and the rising power of acetic anhydride still exists.

Market summary and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, acetic anhydride data analyst of business news agency, believes that the price of acetic anhydride has experienced a long rise cycle since mid January, and acetic anhydride is soaring after the festival. The absolute high price of acetic anhydride has great pressure on the downstream cost, and the downstream customers are more resistant to the high price of acetic anhydride. There is a certain downward pressure on acetic anhydride in the future, and there is a risk of decline in acetic anhydride. However, due to the high price of acetic acid and the high cost of acetic anhydride, the price of acetic anhydride in the future is limited, the demand for acetic anhydride is high, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers is high, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride is small. Acetic anhydride is expected to maintain stability after shock or slight decline.

1、 Price trend

Business Club: maleic anhydride rose strongly after the festival, or more than 50%

According to the data of business news agency, as of February 25, the average offer price of maleic anhydride was 12750.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up 53.00% from 8100.00 yuan / ton on February 1.

On February 25, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 120.11, up 9.42 points from yesterday, down 2.88% from the highest point of 123.67 points in the cycle (December 26, 2017), and up 134.68% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

After the Spring Festival, the market price of maleic anhydride rose sharply. At present, the spot circulation is tight, the factory has no position pressure, and the large factories have entered the maintenance cycle, so the supply is tight. As of the 25th, the amount of solid anhydride in Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanxi, Hebei and South China was about 12000 yuan / ton, 12000 yuan / ton, 12000 yuan / ton and 12500 yuan / ton respectively.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of WTI and Brent crude oil has increased by more than 16% since February. The good news of the international crude oil market is spreading continuously, and the inventories of the United States and China are declining. In addition, OPEC + is still strictly implementing the production reduction agreement, and the effect of national oil production control is ideal, so it is necessary to increase the supply and lower the crude oil market price. At the same time, the cold wave in the United States limited the supply of shale oil and gas fields in the United States, and accidental factors helped to increase the price of crude oil. The main reason for the sharp rise in the price of maleic anhydride is the sharp rise in the price of bulk commodities due to the rise in the price of crude oil.

At present, after the Spring Festival, the downstream unsaturated resin has entered the stage of returning to work and production. The rising raw materials increase the pressure of resin cost and push up the resin market.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of hydrogenated benzene rose sharply after the festival. As of February 25, the mainstream quotation range of hydrogenated benzene Market in East China was 6500-6600 yuan / ton, with an average price of 6550 yuan / ton. During the Spring Festival, crude oil and pure benzene rose sharply, supporting the domestic price of pure benzene to rise; downstream styrene also rose, boosting the price of pure benzene. The price of n-butane is high.

3、 Future forecast

Business community maleic anhydride product analysts believe: at present, the maleic anhydride factory position is low, and has entered the maintenance stage, the supply and demand is tight, and the downstream resin has resumed production, it is expected that the price of maleic anhydride will fluctuate upward in the short term.