Zinc price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the price of zinc fluctuated and fell in January, and the zinc market fell back. As of January 18, the average price of zinc was 20573.33 yuan / ton, down 3.52% from 21323.33 yuan / ton on January 1 at the beginning of the month.

Domestic zinc monthly output

Time ﹣ inventory this week ﹣ inventory increase / decrease

Sub total futures sub total futures

11.30-12.4 55510 13335 -736 -1354

12.7-12.11 46681 9920 -8829 -3415

12.14-12.18 41216 9565 -5465 -355

12.21-12.25 32854 7310 -8362 -2255

12.28-12.31 28581 6058 -4273 -1252

1.4-1.8 35008 3735 6427 -2323

1.11-1.18 43177 14775 8169 11040

 
According to the data of Shanghai futures market, the inventory of zinc in Shanghai futures market increased and the supply of zinc increased in January. The domestic supply of zinc increased in January, and the rising power of zinc decreased and the downward pressure increased.

Import and export data of zinc concentrate

According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, in November 2020, China imported 216400 physical tons of zinc concentrate, which decreased by 87000 physical tons or 28.7% compared with October, and increased by 137700 physical tons or 38.9% compared with November 2019. From January to November 2020, the total import was 3.4978 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 635000 physical tons, an increase of 22.2%. The import volume of zinc concentrate increased greatly, the supply of zinc market was sufficient, and the downward pressure of zinc market increased.

Analysis summary and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at business news agency, believes that: in January, the inventory of zinc ingots in Shanghai market increased, and the supply of zinc market increased. Recently, the import volume of zinc concentrate increased. The supply of domestic zinc market was sufficient, the supply of zinc market increased, and the downward pressure of zinc ingots increased.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of January 15, the comprehensive price of PC market was 19066.67 yuan / ton. This week, the PC market was stable and rising. The focus of the discussion was on the upper side, and the price rose slightly, with an increase of 2.14%. The purchasing atmosphere was generally wait-and-see, with a narrow fluctuation in the short term.

This week, the transaction atmosphere of domestic PC market is acceptable, the overall trend is stable and on the upper side, the price rises slightly, the downstream just needs to go, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. At present, the domestic spot supply side is normal, the enterprise operation rate is normal, the inventory side is normal, and the current shipment is smooth.

The upstream bisphenol a market is in an upward trend, mainly through negotiation, while the downstream just needs to purchase, with limited demand. The mainstream quotation reference is 13100-13200 yuan / ton, and the merchants are willing to pay high prices.

On January 14, the rubber and plastic index was 692 points, up 3 points from yesterday, down 34.72% from 1060 points (2012-03-14), the highest point in the cycle, and up 31.06% from 528 points, the lowest point on April 6, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business community PC analysts believe that: the PC market is expected to be stable and strong in the short term, mainly in a narrow range. (the above prices are provided by major PC manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by business PC analysts. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more details.)

Price trend

According to the business news agency’s block list data, the domestic caprolactam market weakened in early January, and the spot price gradually decreased. As of January 13, the average offer price of caprolactam sample enterprises in business cooperatives was 10466.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.85% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

quotations analysis

At present, the domestic caprolactam market continues to accept the high callback market last month, and manufacturers continue to lower the ex factory price after new year’s day. On the supply side, caprolactam has been improved due to the restart of the early maintenance unit and the tight supply at present. At present, Shandong Luxi Chemical caprolactam liquid price 10200 yuan / ton, cash factory, factory capacity 300000 tons, the actual deal can be discussed. Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid price 11900 yuan / ton, 400000 tons / year, about 80% of the unit operating rate. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 11300 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year, the unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 11300 yuan / T. The 300000 t / a unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance.

According to the monitoring of the business association, the domestic price of pure benzene in early January was affected by the higher interest rate of international crude oil, and the support of cost side was strengthened. In addition, the price of styrene in the lower reaches rebounded due to the wide rise of pure benzene in Asia, and the pure benzene in the first ten days of January rose in shock. In terms of external market, the demand for pure benzene in Europe and the United States increased, boosting the rise of pure benzene in Asia. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the global new epidemic situation and vaccine progress, OPEC +’s latest policy on production reduction, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and global economic recovery. It is expected that pure benzene will still rise in the near future.

Future forecast

Business community caprolactam analysts believe that: at present, the upstream pure benzene market has risen, there is cost support for caprolactam. However, the current domestic caprolactam supply is relatively abundant, coupled with the previous tight supply, good spot prices, so caprolactam continued high callback market in early January. The downstream operating rate level is acceptable, the demand drops, the inventory rises, dragging the caprolactam market. Caprolactam market is expected to continue weak adjustment trend.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: p-value curve of lithium hydroxide product)

2、 Market analysis

The market of industrial lithium hydroxide rose this week. As of January 8, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 53000 yuan / ton, up 0.63% compared with the beginning of the week and 1.92% compared with December 8, according to the data of business news agency’s block list.

This week, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide rose. Affected by the rise of lithium carbonate in the upstream, it boosted the lithium hydroxide Market. The demand in the downstream increased, accelerated the consumption of low price inventory in the market, and the market rose steadily. At present, the external quotation of Shanghai Yulun industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 53000 yuan / ton; Zigong tongfarong industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 53000 yuan / ton; Shanghai oujin industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 53000 yuan / ton; anhydrous lithium hydroxide is 130000 yuan / ton. The specific transaction price is discussed separately.

Upstream lithium carbonate, lithium carbonate prices continue to rise in the near future. According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency: on January 8, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 56400 yuan / ton, up 12.80% compared with the beginning of the month. On January 8, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 60800 yuan / ton, up 11.36% compared with the beginning of the month.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 1st week of 2021 (1.4-1.8), there were 27 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, among which 4 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were propylene glycol (10.29%), ethylene (5.98%) and propane (5.47%). There were 32 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 4 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products with a decrease were acetone (- 13.28%), n-butanol (industrial grade) (- 10.78%) and isopropanol (- 8.47%). This week, the average rise and fall was – 0.34%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the lithium hydroxide analysts of business news agency, the market atmosphere is acceptable due to the recent rise in upstream prices, strengthened cost support, and increased downstream demand. It is expected that the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market may rise steadily in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance.

1、 Price trend

 
According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the domestic xylene market price showed an upward trend as a whole this week, while the price in some regions decreased significantly. The price of xylene was 3940 yuan / ton on January 3 and 3930 yuan / ton on this Sunday (January 10), down 10 yuan / ton or 0.25% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Within the week, Sinopec’s xylene increased by 100-250 yuan / ton (the price in some regions decreased). In terms of external market, as of January 8, the price of imported xylene from South Korea was 582 US dollars / ton, up 69.5 US dollars / ton or 13.56% compared with December 31; the price of imported xylene from East China was 590 US dollars / ton, up 61.5 US dollars / ton or 11.64% compared with December 31. During the week, the crude oil news was good, and the price rose rapidly. The external price of Asian xylene rose by more than 10%. The domestic xylene market was very bullish, but the downstream PTA, PX, ox and other demand was general, and the follow-up attitude was cautious. Xylene inventory in East China ports this week was about 96100 tons, up 7400 tons from last week.

In terms of crude oil, on January 5, OPEC + reached an agreement to adjust the daily crude oil production. In addition, Saudi Arabia said that it would reduce the daily crude oil production by an additional 1 million barrels in February and March, and the oil price rose rapidly boosted by the favorable situation. Compared with December 31, Brent rose by $4.805/barrel, or 9.52%; WTI rose by $3.63/barrel, or 7.46%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 24.38% and WTI decreased by 19.98%.

Downstream, PX market, the domestic PX price this week is more stable than last week, Sinopec’s listed price is about 4700 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decline of 31.88%. The terminal demand is general, and PX is mainly purchased on demand. As of January 7, the closing prices of p-xylene market in Asia were US $676-678 / T FOB Korea and US $694-696 / T CFR China. This week, PX external price trend rose, to the domestic market to bring a certain positive support impact.

In terms of PTA market, PTA prices in East China showed an upward trend this week, up 278.89 yuan / ton, or 7.69%, compared with last week, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.91%. Recent PTA downstream orders are OK, PTA enterprises have good production enthusiasm, and there is no large-scale maintenance phenomenon. As of January 7, the starting load of domestic PTA production enterprises was 84%, which was at the normal level. At present, the periodic contradiction between supply and demand of PTA is not sharp, and crude oil still brings some support to the market, so PTA price is expected to continue the strong oscillation situation.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox was stable this week, with the price of ox in East China at 5000 yuan / ton. The import price of o-benzene in port area is temporarily stable, and the quotation is weakened. Recently, the inventory of o-benzene in port has increased, and the external quotation of o-benzene has fluctuated and fallen. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation and detailed discussion. Ox future market downward pressure is larger, rising momentum still exists.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Crude oil, external support is good, toluene is expected to rise next Tuesday. However, domestic downstream demand remained weak, mainly from rigid demand; xylene port inventory was high, which was difficult to consume in the short term, restraining the growth. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the downstream stock before the Spring Festival and the impact of gasoline blending price trend on xylene price.