According to this week’s polyester filament market has gone out of the trend of “first restraining and then rising”, showing a steady adjustment trend as a whole, the market supply and demand situation has improved, and it is expected that the price will maintain a strong trend of volatility in the short term. As of October 17th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6400-6700 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 7750-8000 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 6500-6800 yuan/ton.
At the beginning of the week, the polyester filament market as a whole showed a weak downward trend, with a slight shift in price focus. On October 20th, the prices of polyester POY, FDY, and DTY all experienced varying degrees of decline. The price of polyester POY was 6750 yuan, with a daily increase and decrease of -2.61%. The price of polyester FDY was 6826.67 yuan, with a daily increase and decrease of -2.52%. The price of polyester DTY was 7931.25 yuan, with a daily increase and decrease of -1.86%. This is mainly due to the weak operation of the upstream polyester raw material market at that time, insufficient cost support, and cautious downstream procurement, resulting in an average market transaction atmosphere.
Starting from Wednesday, the market situation has changed, and the price of polyester filament has stabilized and partially rebounded. On October 23rd, due to the rise in international oil prices and the improvement of the fabric market, some polyester factories reduced their discounts on polyester filament or raised their prices by 50-100 yuan/ton. On October 24th, Rongsheng Petrochemical’s semi transparent DTY was partially increased by 50-100, POY and FDY were both increased by 50, some FDY was increased by 100, and the slice buyout price was increased by 50.
The turning point is mainly reflected in two aspects:
Cost support strengthens: International oil prices significantly rebounded on October 22-23. The cost of aggregation has increased accordingly, compressing the profit margin of polyester filament production enterprises, resulting in a significant increase in their willingness to raise prices, and a decrease in some low-end negotiated prices.
Boosting demand: According to news on October 23rd, the arrival of cold air has led to a rebound in demand for winter fabrics, with demand for essential goods driving increased production and sales. For example, on October 21st, the average production and sales rate of polyester filament sample enterprises soared to 367.9%. The rebound in production and sales means that the pressure on factory inventory has been eased, further supporting prices.
Based on the above factors, on October 24th, polyester filament factories in Jiangsu Province raised their prices or reduced their discounts, ranging from 50-100 yuan/ton.
At present, the inventory of polyester filament in polyester factories is still high, and the inventory of greige fabric is significantly higher than the same period last year. Weaving factories are basically based on production quantity and cautious in procurement. But with the improvement of the market situation, polyester manufacturers have adjusted their quotations to seize market share, and the market mentality has improved. Some companies have increased their willingness to raise prices. Overall, it is expected that the price of polyester filament will maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate on October 23 was 1070 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the average market price of 1070 yuan/ton on October 17.
2、 Market analysis
supply and demand situation
This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices have been running steadily. The operating rate of ammonium sulfate enterprises is relatively stable this week. Last week, the price of ammonium sulfate continued to rise, and the market’s cautious attitude increased, resulting in a stalemate in the price of ammonium sulfate. At present, the supply of ammonium sulfate in the market is stable, and downstream demand for replenishment is urgent. There is currently no favorable news internationally, and market transactions are limited.
market situation
As of October 23rd, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 960 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 1030-1080 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has been running steadily in recent days. At present, there is a supply-demand game in the ammonium sulfate market, with a decrease in market trading volume and a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market will remain stagnant and operate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 22, 2025, the gold spot market price was 945.46 yuan/gram, an increase of 8.41% from the gold spot market price of 872.11 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month (October 1), and a decrease of 4.13% from the gold spot market price of 986.21 yuan/gram on October 21; During the month, the price of gold first rose and then fell, repeatedly reaching new highs in the early stages. Today, it has fallen back from its high point, and the overall price is still at a historical absolute high.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of silver in the market on October 22, 2025 was 11299.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 3.76% compared to the average price of 10890.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (October 1), and a decrease of 4.39% compared to the average price of 11891 yuan/kg on October 21.
Overview of precious metal and crude oil price trends
Since 2025, the price correlation between precious metals and Brent crude oil has shifted from a short-term weak positive correlation to a long-term significant negative correlation.
Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year
The market trends of gold and silver during the one-year cycle from October 22, 2024 to October 22, 2025:
1. Overall trend: synchronous rise, gold performance stronger
Both gold (blue line) and silver (pink line) have shown a significant upward trend, with gold prices fluctuating by over 56.53% and silver prices exceeding 40.34%. The precious metal sector as a whole is in a strong market. Among them, the increase in gold is significantly higher than that of silver, reflecting the advantages of gold in terms of hedging and preservation properties. Under market driving factors such as macroeconomic environment and geopolitics, funds tend to allocate more to gold, making its increase lead.
2. Stage trend: fluctuating upward, accelerating upward in the later stage
In the initial period (October 2024 April 2025), both gold and silver experienced a fluctuating upward trend, during which gold’s rise exceeded 30% first, while silver slowly rose in volatility, with a relatively lagging increase. The upward momentum of precious metals in this stage mainly comes from the safe haven demand brought about by global economic uncertainty, as well as changes in monetary policy expectations.
In the mid-term (April 2025 to August 2025), gold enters a period of high volatility, with an increase maintained in the range of 25% -30%; Silver began to accelerate its catch-up, with its increase rapidly rising from single digits to nearly 20%. At this stage, the market’s allocation logic for precious metals has shifted from a single safe haven to a dual logic of “safe haven+industrial demand (silver)”. Silver’s industrial attributes (such as new energy and electronic applications) have begun to exert force, driving its price increase to expand.

In the later period (August 2025 to October 2025), both gold and silver entered an accelerated upward trend, especially with gold breaking through 56% and silver breaking through 40% in the final stage. This stage may be strongly driven by factors such as the escalation of geopolitical risks and the easing of monetary policies in major economies around the world (such as expectations of interest rate cuts). The attractiveness of precious metals as anti inflation and safe haven assets is further amplified, and a large influx of funds is driving up prices rapidly.
3. Market driven logic
Macroeconomics: The uncertainty of global economic growth, changes in inflation levels, and the direction of monetary policy by major central banks (such as the Federal Reserve) (such as the start of interest rate cutting cycles) are the core macroeconomic factors driving up precious metal prices.
Safe haven demand: The safe haven sentiment triggered by regional conflicts, financial market fluctuations, and other events has a particularly significant driving effect on gold, making it a “safe harbor” for funds.
Industrial demand: The industrial application demand of silver in new energy, electronics and other fields provided additional support for its rise in the later stage of the market, narrowing the gap with gold’s rise.
In summary, the precious metal market in the past year has been characterized by “gold leading the rise, silver following suit, and later accelerating together”, presenting a strong bull market overall, and the driving factors of the market have evolved from a single logic in the early stage to a diversified logic in the later stage.
Reason for today’s callback
On October 22, 2025, precious metals gold and silver experienced a significant decline, mainly driven by multiple factors including:
1、 Profit taking and technical correction
In the early stage, the prices of gold and silver continued to rise and hit historical highs, accumulating a large number of profitable stocks in the market. When the price rises too quickly, investors, driven by the need to lock in profits, concentrate on profit taking operations, triggering a technical correction. For example, spot gold fell more than 6.3% on the same day, marking the largest daily decline since April 2013; Spot silver fell more than 8.7% at one point, the largest decline since 2021, and this extreme volatility is a direct reflection of the concentration and exit of profit taking.
2、 Geopolitical risk mitigation
The geopolitical hedging logic that previously drove the rise of precious metals has loosened. On the one hand, the news of the ceasefire agreement reached in the Israeli Palestinian conflict weakened market risk aversion; On the other hand, former US President Trump’s softening of trade attitudes has also reduced concerns about global trade frictions, greatly reducing the safe haven appeal of gold.
3、 Forced sell-off triggered by market liquidity crisis
The tight liquidity in the financial system has forced investors to sell high liquidity assets. Former economic advisor to the Federal Reserve in Dallas pointed out that the sharp drop in gold is a “distress signal” for a systemic “liquidity crisis” – some investors are forced to liquidate liquid assets such as gold due to receiving margin call notices or needing to quickly raise cash, which further exacerbates the price decline.
4、 The indirect impact of fluctuations in the US dollar index

Despite a slight decline in the US dollar index on that day, the changes in the Federal Reserve’s policy expectations in the earlier period have been fully reflected in prices. The market’s expectation of a Fed rate cut (such as a 25 basis point cut in October) has been overvalued, and when the policy is implemented, funds are transferred from the precious metal market to other assets, leading to insufficient buying of gold and silver.
5、 Position Structure and Changes in Market Sentiment
From the position data, it can be seen that gold and silver ETFs have continued to increase their holdings in the early stage, accumulating a large number of speculative long positions. When market sentiment shifts from optimism to caution, these crowded long positions are concentrated and liquidated, forming a situation of “buying more, killing more”, amplifying price declines.
In summary, the decline in precious metals this time is the result of the resonance of factors such as profit taking, geopolitical easing, liquidity pressure, and deteriorating position structure, and belongs to a stage adjustment after the previous rise.
Future forecast
In the future, the precious metal market will experience short-term fluctuations, medium-term differentiation, and long-term improvement. In the later stage, we will focus on changes in the Federal Reserve’s policy trends, geopolitical situation, and industrial demand data.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been fluctuating narrowly recently (10.14-10.20). As of October 20th, the spot rubber market price in China’s natural rubber market was around 14458 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.46% from 14391 yuan/ton on the 14th. The high price of natural rubber raw materials is under pressure, which weakens the expected support for the natural rubber market; In addition, downstream tire production resumed after the holiday, providing essential support for natural rubber. In addition, the continued slight destocking of natural rubber inventory at the port has led to a narrow consolidation of the natural rubber market. As of October 20th, the mainstream price for 24 years of Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao latex in Qingdao area is 14300-14550 yuan/ton.
As of October 20th, the price of Thai glue was 54.10 baht/kg, unchanged from October 14th. Although there have been typhoons affecting some rubber cutting operations in Hainan and Yunnan regions of China recently, the overseas weather has improved, and the expected supply of natural rubber raw materials will gradually be released, putting overall pressure on raw material prices.
Recently (10.14-10.20), natural rubber inventory has continued to decrease slightly, which has a greater impact on natural rubber. As of October 19, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 437500 tons, a decrease of 18600 tons or 4.07% compared to the previous period.
After the recent holidays (10.14-10.20), downstream tire production has gradually resumed, providing essential support for the natural rubber market. As of October 17th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has slightly increased to around 7.10%; The production of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong Province has slightly decreased to around 6.4%.
Market forecast: The current high prices of natural rubber raw materials have fallen back, and downstream production is low. However, the overall inventory of Tianjiao Port continues to decline slightly, and it is expected that the natural rubber market will experience weak fluctuations before the holiday.

Aluminum prices slightly strengthened in October
Aluminum prices slightly strengthened in October. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 17, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20960 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from the market average price of 20733.33 yuan/ton on October 1.
The aluminum price has exceeded the 20000 mark and is at a relatively high level in the past 1-2 years. The price of raw material alumina has fallen from its high level, and the profit per ton of aluminum is currently in a relatively good position.
In October, aluminum ingots followed the overall strong operation of non-ferrous metals, which was greatly affected by macro factors to a certain extent.
The recent positive news is as follows:
The game between China and the United States: the United States expands the coverage of high tariffs&the United States imposes additional fees on specific ships, while China imposes special port fees on American ships. (Not directly impacting aluminum exports, affecting expectations).
Policy benefits: Shanghai’s intelligent terminal industry plan and Q4 may introduce consumer stimulus measures (for automobiles and home appliances) to boost demand for high-end aluminum materials.
Overview of October Fundamentals
On the production capacity side, the operating capacity is 44.165 million tons (stable at a high level), and the newly added capacity (280000 tons to be started in Xinjiang) is basically offset by the reduced production (400000 tons in Qinghai Zhonglv and 4.31 million tons in Shandong Weiqiao).
On the cost side, the price of alumina has declined (Guangxi market price is 3030 yuan/ton), pre baked anodes remain stable at 5055 yuan/ton, and thermal coal has slightly rebounded (Q5500 average price is 589 yuan/ton), indicating weak overall cost support.
Changes in aluminum structure: The proportion of aluminum water direct alloying has increased to 73.9%, and the proportion of aluminum ingot delivery products is less than 27%, highlighting the phenomenon of “shortage of ingots” in spot goods.
Demand side: demand differentiation, strong demand resilience for new energy vehicles (with a retail penetration rate of 57.8% for passenger cars in September) and new energy cables (with aluminum rod processing fees maintained at a high level of 550 yuan/ton in Guangdong); Weakness in the building materials industry (Foshan aluminum rod inventory of 62100 tons continues to accumulate)
Inventory change: Social inventory has been reduced. As of October 16th, the social inventory in mainstream areas of China was 615000 tons, which basically consumed the accumulated inventory during the holiday. It is close to 614000 tons on September 25th, and 19000 tons have been reduced from 634000 tons on October 9th.
Stay tuned for the future market
Under the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the macro sentiment of non-ferrous commodities is relatively strong, and aluminum prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall in the short term.