1、 Core viewpoint
According to the latest market data in early February 2026, the Chinese liquefied gas market, especially the Shandong market, which is an important production and consumption area, is clearly showing a core pattern of “strong outside and weak inside, under pressure from top to bottom”. Despite the rigid support of high international costs, the weak fundamentals in the domestic market have led to a lack of market momentum. Since the end of 2025, the export price of civilian gas in Shandong has shown a fluctuating downward trend, and the increase in refinery production is difficult to obtain market response. Terminal price push has also continued to encounter obstacles. As of February 3rd, the benchmark price of liquefied gas in Shengyi Society was 4355.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.3% compared to the beginning of this month (4412.50 yuan/ton).
2、 In depth analysis of price trends: from “strong support” to “weak reality”
From November 2025 to mid January 2026, the export price (transportation) of civilian gas in Shandong experienced a period of high stalemate. The price fluctuates narrowly within the range of 4500-4600 yuan/ton. During this period, the main logic of the market was “cost driven”. Taking the February 2026 Saudi CP (contract price) as an example, propane was set at $545/ton and butane was set at $540/ton, with landed costs far exceeding the domestic selling price at that time, forming a solid “price floor” and effectively suppressing the potential for deep decline.
However, the turning point occurred in late January. Starting from January 24th, the price has embarked on a smooth downward spiral. As of February 3rd, the price has fallen from its recent high to the 4300 yuan/ton platform, with the largest drop in the range approaching 6%. This trend completely breaks the balance under cost support, indicating that the dominant force of weak domestic demand has overwhelmed high cost support, and the market has entered the “weak reality” pricing stage.
3、 Market pressure: comprehensive analysis of multiple factors
Some refineries must maintain a certain operating load during the Spring Festival period to ensure the smooth operation of their facilities, resulting in the continuous production of liquefied gas as a byproduct and the formation of a stable supply flow. Faced with the expectation of logistics stagnation caused by the Spring Festival holiday, refineries have a strong demand for inventory clearance and risk avoidance, and tend to increase shipments before the holiday to reduce inventory pressure. However, the current market’s carrying capacity is seriously insufficient, and this “increment” directly translates into downward pressure on prices.
The main obstacle to price pushing at import ports lies in the dilemma of being caught in a “pincer attack”: on the one hand, the high international import costs put enormous pressure on them to bear losses, and price pushing is an internal urgent need to turn losses around; On the other hand, domestic demand is weak – the main downstream PDH industry strongly resists high priced raw materials due to its own losses, while the civilian market is bearish on the future and only purchases on demand, resulting in a “price but no market” after the port price increases. At the same time, the continuously declining domestic gas prices have formed significant comparative advantages and substitution pressure, further locking in the pricing space of the port. Therefore, the fundamental reason for the current obstruction of pricing actions is the combined effect of cost rigidity, demand elasticity, and substitution competition.
4、 Future prospects
In the short term, the market will enter the Spring Festival mode, with trading tending to be light and prices expected to be mainly weakly consolidated. In the last week before the holiday, it is not ruled out that some downstream companies may carry out a final round of small-scale inventory replenishment to ensure holiday usage, or form a weak support for prices, but it is difficult to change the overall decline.

Review of the Market Situation of Maleic Anhydride in 2025
According to the commodity market analysis system, China’s maleic anhydride market is expected to experience a volatile downward trend in 2025, with an average market price of 6520 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 5112.50 yuan/ton at the end of the year, representing an annual decline of 21.59%. The highest point of the year occurred on April 28th at 6925 yuan/ton, and the lowest point of the year occurred on December 18th at 5125 yuan/ton, with a maximum amplitude of 25.99%. The domestic maleic anhydride market will experience a significant decline in 2025.
According to the monthly K-bar chart data of the maleic anhydride market in 2025, there will be more fluctuations in the market, with 3 months of upward movement and 9 months of downward movement. The highest increase was in March, up 3.19%, and the highest decline was in July, down 6.01%.
In the first half of the year, after a brief surge, there was pressure to fall back
From the beginning of the year to early May: The market continued its recovery trend from the end of 2024, coupled with the recovery of downstream unsaturated resin, coating and other industries’ operating rates after the Spring Festival. The price of maleic anhydride fluctuated from 6520 yuan/ton to a high point of 6925 yuan/ton for the year. May to June: With the release of new production capacity, market supply pressure became prominent, coupled with insufficient downstream demand follow-up, prices quickly fell back to 6330 yuan/ton.
Second half of the year: supply-demand imbalance accelerates downward trend
From July to the end of the year: The price of maleic anhydride entered a unilateral downward trend. On the one hand, multiple sets of maleic anhydride plants in China have been put into operation, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate has increased to over 75%, resulting in a sustained oversupply in the market; On the other hand, the downstream unsaturated resin industry has been affected by the sluggish real estate market and shrinking export orders, with a operating rate of around 50% and weak support from the demand side. The price continued to decline from 6237.5 yuan/ton to 5112.5 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of over 18% in the second half of the year.
2026 maleic anhydride market forecast
Cost aspect:
Raw material n-butane: In 2025, the n-butane market will fluctuate downward, with an average market price of 5180 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 4470 yuan/ton at the end of the year, a year-on-year decline of 13.71%. The n-butane market is mainly affected by significant changes in the international crude oil market, coupled with a 9.35% decline in the domestic naphtha market in 2025, which provides limited cost support for the n-butane market.
Supply side: By 2025, the effective production capacity of domestic maleic anhydride will reach 1.92 million tons per year, with an actual output of about 1.685 million tons. The operating rate will remain at a high level of 87.8%, reflecting that the overall supply and demand of the industry are in a tight balance. In 2025, there will be significant changes in the production capacity structure of maleic anhydride in China. The proportion of n-butane oxidation process route has reached 76.3%, a significant increase from 58.1% in 2020, indicating that the industry has completed a round of technological iteration under the constraints of energy efficiency and environmental protection. In contrast, the production capacity of the benzene oxidation method has been reduced to 237000 tons per year, accounting for 17.9% of the total.

Demand side: The apparent consumption of maleic anhydride in China in 2025 is about 861000 tons, an increase of 6.3% from 810000 tons in 2024. In the downstream consumption structure of maleic anhydride in 2025, unsaturated polyester resin (UPR) will still be the largest consumer sector, accounting for about 48% of the total consumption, but the growth rate will slow down to 5.2%. BDO accounts for 22.3%, with a growth rate of 14.7%, driven by the expansion of BDO production in Ningdong, Yulin and other places.
The unsaturated resin industry is still one of the largest demand areas for maleic anhydride, accounting for nearly 50%. In 2025, the situation of oversupply of UPR will continue, and most production enterprises will maintain a low operating state. The overall market price of unsaturated resin will show a downward trend in 2025. Downstream demand is expected to maintain structural growth in 2026, with wind power, rail transit, and new energy vehicles becoming new growth poles, with high-performance vinyl ester resin for wind turbine blades growing at an average annual rate of over 12%. The orders of traditional downstream shipbuilding industry and traditional automobile manufacturing industry are expected to continue to shrink, with SMC materials accounting for over 30% of shipbuilding. The downturn in the industry directly leads to a sharp decline in procurement volume.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the investment in real estate development in China is expected to reach 8278.8 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 17.2% from the previous year; Among them, residential investment was 635.14 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.3%. In 2025, the construction area of real estate development enterprises’ houses will be 6598.9 million square meters, a decrease of 10.0% from the previous year. Among them, the construction area of residential buildings was 4601.23 million square meters, a decrease of 10.3%. The newly started construction area of houses is 587.7 million square meters, a decrease of 20.4%. Among them, the newly started residential area was 429.84 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. The completed area of the house is 603.48 million square meters, a decrease of 18.1%. Among them, the completed residential area was 428.3 million square meters, a decrease of 20.2%. Real estate investment continues to decline significantly, with a severe shortage of new construction projects. The demand for glass in the real estate sector continues to decline significantly, and the demand for unsaturated resin industry in traditional terminal industries has limited growth.
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, by 2025, China’s automobile production and sales will reach 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 10.4% and 9.4%, respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, an increase of 29% and 28.2% year-on-year. The sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 47.9% of the total sales of new cars. With the continuous expansion of the new energy vehicle market, the demand for unsaturated resins in the automotive industry has increased.

According to data from Shengyi Society, the domestic BDO market will experience a situation of first falling, then rising, and then continuing to decline in 2025, with an overall weak trend. The continuous release of new production capacity in the BDO industry throughout the year has resulted in downstream demand not keeping up, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance and leading to intense market competition, resulting in long-term pressure on prices. The pattern of overcapacity in the industry continues to solidify. As of the end of 2025, the domestic BDO production capacity will reach 6.05 million tons per year (including under construction), with an annual output of approximately 2.58 million tons. The overall operating rate of the industry will remain at around 50%. There is a clear differentiation in enterprise start-up, with integrated enterprises in the northwest relying on the advantage of raw material costs to achieve a start-up rate of 70% -80%. However, small and medium-sized enterprises lacking cost advantages have a start-up rate of less than 30%, and some facilities are even shut down for a long time.
Market forecast: The market price of maleic anhydride is expected to fluctuate between 4800-6800 yuan/ton in 2026, and the price trend will be influenced by the following factors:
On the raw material side, the price trends of n-butane and benzene will directly affect the production cost of maleic anhydride.
Supply side: The pace of releasing new production capacity will affect the balance of market supply and demand.
Demand side: Changes in demand from downstream PBAT and UPR industries will directly affect the price of maleic anhydride.
Policy side: Environmental policies and carbon reduction requirements will increase production costs and support prices.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, this week (1.26-1.30), the 1 # tin ingot market in East China first rose and then fell. The market average price at the beginning of the week was 438600 yuan/ton, and as of January 30th, the market average price was 427370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.56%.
The trend of tin prices shows a trend of first rising and then falling, which is mainly due to changes in the supply and demand pattern, fluctuations in macro environmental factors, and fluctuations in market sentiment.
Macroscopic perspective
The recent weakness of the US dollar has made metal products priced in US dollars more attractive to buyers holding other currencies. At the same time, the prices of precious metals continue to rise and break historical records, spreading the market’s enthusiasm for investing in hard assets to the industrial metals sector. As speculative buying continues to pour in, investors are betting that industrial metal prices will further rise. However, due to excessive speculative behavior, industrial metal prices have clearly deviated from their fundamental support, and high prices have to some extent suppressed the actual purchasing demand of industrial users. In response to this situation, China has introduced position restriction measures and continuously strengthened regulatory efforts. Subsequently, under the pressure of profit taking, the bullish sentiment in the market has cooled down.
supply side
The production recovery process in the Wa State region of Myanmar is slow, and it is expected that tin production in January will be less than 1000 tons, and achieving comprehensive production increase may take until the second half of the year. On the Indonesian side, due to the impact of the export license approval process, trading activities of tin ingots have come to a standstill in the first 20 days of January, leading to supply shortages. The domestic situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo is unstable, and its tin supply faces a high risk of interruption.
Domestic smelters maintain a high operating rate, but the shortage of waste tin raw materials remains prominent, especially in Jiangxi where the production of refined tin is relatively low and the overall supply growth rate is limited. Although the processing cost of tin ore has been raised and the profit recovery expectation of the smelting process has increased, it is difficult to achieve a significant increase in supply in the short term due to the constraint of waste supply.
Demand side
Consumer electronics and home appliance orders are weak, and the demand for tin in the solder industry is sluggish. Although there are short-term export expectations brought about by the cancellation of export tax rebate policies in the photovoltaic field, high priced raw materials weaken order growth and overall consumption support is limited. The demand for tin in high-end manufacturing fields such as AI servers and new energy vehicles is growing, but the current increase in emerging demand is not enough to compensate for the decline in traditional demand. Downstream acceptance of high priced tin is still low, and the willingness to replenish inventory is weak.
In the spot market, the price experienced a high phase in the early stage, and thereafter market participants generally held a cautious attitude. At the same time, inventory levels continue to rise, reflecting weak consumer demand in the short term. Recently, the position restriction policy introduced domestically has effectively suppressed short-term speculative behavior, and market sentiment has also changed accordingly. After a certain degree of price decline, the willingness to trade has increased, and merchants generally report an increase in shipment volume. However, there has been no significant improvement in the overall demand situation.
comprehensive analysis
Short term tin prices are expected to remain volatile at high levels, and the tight supply pattern has not changed. However, the game between weak reality and strong expectations on the demand side will continue. Attention should be paid to the progress of Myanmar’s resumption of production, Indonesia’s export policies, and the actual release of emerging demand.

This week, the main asphalt contract has risen strongly, and the spot market has also risen in sync. The high-end price of East China Heavy Duty Asphalt has climbed to 3300 yuan/ton, and low-priced resources continue to tighten, with strong sentiment among refineries to raise prices. In the traditional off-season of demand, the core driving force of this strong market is directly at the cost end, with crude oil rising by 6.5% this week. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of heavy-duty asphalt Jingbo # 70 in Shandong Province was 3133 yuan/ton on January 25th, and the ex factory price in Shandong Province was 3233 yuan/ton on January 28th, with a slight increase of 4.47% during the week.
This price increase is not due to an improvement in supply and demand fundamentals, but rather a combination of favorable factors on the cost side, with geopolitical conflicts and raw material disturbances as the core factors. The correlation between asphalt and crude oil prices is as high as 0.9, which directly maximizes cost support. More importantly, the United States has increased restrictions on Venezuela’s crude oil exports, and the Brent premium for Murray Heavy Oil (a core asphalt raw material) has rapidly narrowed from -13 US dollars per barrel to -5 US dollars per barrel. Domestic refineries have a 50% -70% dependence on Venezuela’s oil, and alternative raw materials are priced higher, further strengthening the expectation of cost increases and boosting the growth rate.
The operating rate of domestic asphalt refineries has dropped to 26.8%, which is at a low level during the same period. Expected production in January is 2 million tons, a month on month decrease of 7.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%. The spot supply is tightening, low-priced resources are disappearing, and the focus of spot goods is shifting upwards.
The current market presents a pattern of “strong cost, weak demand”, and the long short game focuses on the sustainability of costs and the pace of demand recovery. The demand side is still in the off-season, construction in the north is stagnant, construction in the south is only intermittent, downstream purchases are made on demand, and the construction rate of road asphalt is only 14%. The growth rate of infrastructure investment is weak, and short-term demand is difficult to break through.
In the short term, geopolitical situation and oil prices are the core variables. If conflicts escalate, oil prices will continue to rise and asphalt will become stronger. If risks ease, there will be pressure for a correction. Domestic raw material inventories can be supported until the end of February, and the sustainability of costs will be verified after the holiday. In the medium to long term, with the arrival of the peak season for spring construction, demand may improve marginally, but OPEC’s production increase and refinery operation recovery may suppress valuations or return to a volatile downward trend.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 28th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 3940 yuan/ton. Currently, the demand for DMF in the market is weak, and downstream essential purchases are the main ones. The overall market is fluctuating at a low level and lacks favorable support.
2、 Cause analysis
In terms of the market, overcapacity and oversupply have led to price pressure, equipment maintenance, high industry concentration, and some manufacturers have reduced production due to environmental policies or equipment issues, resulting in temporary supply shortages.
In terms of methanol: supply-demand imbalance: supply side production capacity and import volume have both increased, traditional downstream demand (such as MTO) is weak, and emerging demand (such as fuel) is still being cultivated, resulting in high inventory and price pressure. Price trend: Prices will fluctuate downward in 2025, with the average spot price at the end of the year falling by more than 15% compared to the beginning of the year. At the beginning of 2026, due to geopolitical factors such as the situation in Iran, prices experienced a short-term rebound, but the rebound was highly limited by high inventory and insufficient demand.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, DMF prices will mainly remain stable and fluctuate within a narrow range.