This week, the main asphalt contract has risen strongly, and the spot market has also risen in sync. The high-end price of East China Heavy Duty Asphalt has climbed to 3300 yuan/ton, and low-priced resources continue to tighten, with strong sentiment among refineries to raise prices. In the traditional off-season of demand, the core driving force of this strong market is directly at the cost end, with crude oil rising by 6.5% this week. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of heavy-duty asphalt Jingbo # 70 in Shandong Province was 3133 yuan/ton on January 25th, and the ex factory price in Shandong Province was 3233 yuan/ton on January 28th, with a slight increase of 4.47% during the week.
This price increase is not due to an improvement in supply and demand fundamentals, but rather a combination of favorable factors on the cost side, with geopolitical conflicts and raw material disturbances as the core factors. The correlation between asphalt and crude oil prices is as high as 0.9, which directly maximizes cost support. More importantly, the United States has increased restrictions on Venezuela’s crude oil exports, and the Brent premium for Murray Heavy Oil (a core asphalt raw material) has rapidly narrowed from -13 US dollars per barrel to -5 US dollars per barrel. Domestic refineries have a 50% -70% dependence on Venezuela’s oil, and alternative raw materials are priced higher, further strengthening the expectation of cost increases and boosting the growth rate.
The operating rate of domestic asphalt refineries has dropped to 26.8%, which is at a low level during the same period. Expected production in January is 2 million tons, a month on month decrease of 7.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%. The spot supply is tightening, low-priced resources are disappearing, and the focus of spot goods is shifting upwards.
The current market presents a pattern of “strong cost, weak demand”, and the long short game focuses on the sustainability of costs and the pace of demand recovery. The demand side is still in the off-season, construction in the north is stagnant, construction in the south is only intermittent, downstream purchases are made on demand, and the construction rate of road asphalt is only 14%. The growth rate of infrastructure investment is weak, and short-term demand is difficult to break through.
In the short term, geopolitical situation and oil prices are the core variables. If conflicts escalate, oil prices will continue to rise and asphalt will become stronger. If risks ease, there will be pressure for a correction. Domestic raw material inventories can be supported until the end of February, and the sustainability of costs will be verified after the holiday. In the medium to long term, with the arrival of the peak season for spring construction, demand may improve marginally, but OPEC’s production increase and refinery operation recovery may suppress valuations or return to a volatile downward trend.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 28th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 3940 yuan/ton. Currently, the demand for DMF in the market is weak, and downstream essential purchases are the main ones. The overall market is fluctuating at a low level and lacks favorable support.
2、 Cause analysis
In terms of the market, overcapacity and oversupply have led to price pressure, equipment maintenance, high industry concentration, and some manufacturers have reduced production due to environmental policies or equipment issues, resulting in temporary supply shortages.
In terms of methanol: supply-demand imbalance: supply side production capacity and import volume have both increased, traditional downstream demand (such as MTO) is weak, and emerging demand (such as fuel) is still being cultivated, resulting in high inventory and price pressure. Price trend: Prices will fluctuate downward in 2025, with the average spot price at the end of the year falling by more than 15% compared to the beginning of the year. At the beginning of 2026, due to geopolitical factors such as the situation in Iran, prices experienced a short-term rebound, but the rebound was highly limited by high inventory and insufficient demand.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, DMF prices will mainly remain stable and fluctuate within a narrow range.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has fluctuated and risen recently (1.1-1.27). As of January 27th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 15941 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.75% from 14933 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of January 27th, the mainstream price for 24 years of Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao latex in Qingdao is 15900-16050 yuan/ton.
Recently (1.1-1.27), the continuous increase in Tianjiao inventory has had a bearish impact on the Tianjiao market. However, the supply of natural rubber raw materials is tight and prices are rising. In addition, downstream restocking is gradually taking place before the Spring Festival, causing the natural rubber market to fluctuate and rise.
Recently (1.1-1.27), the prices of natural rubber raw materials have been consolidating at a high level. As of January 27th, the price of Thai glue was 57.90 baht/kg, unchanged from 54.70 baht/kg at the beginning of the month. At present, Yunnan and Hainan production areas in China have completely stopped cutting, and the scope of cutting in northern Thailand has expanded. The supply of natural rubber raw materials is tight and prices are rising, which supports the natural rubber market.
Recently (1.1-1.27), natural rubber inventory has continued to grow, with a relatively negative impact on natural rubber. As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 584500 tons, an increase of 11.38% from 524800 tons at the end of December 2025.
Supply and demand side: Since early January (1.1-1.26), downstream tire production has slightly increased, providing essential support for the natural rubber market. As of January 26th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has increased from 6.7% at the beginning of the month to around 7.5%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has increased from 5.8% at the beginning of the month to about 6.3%.
Market forecast: The price of natural rubber raw materials will continue to rise at a high level in the short term, supported by the urgent demand for downstream tires. The inventory of Tianjiao Port will increase, but downstream replenishment will gradually end near the Spring Festival. Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in a narrow range before the holiday.

This week, the acrylic acid market presented a game pattern of “strong cost support, but seasonal weakening of demand”, with the overall market rising strongly. As of January 26th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6116.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.87 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of this month (5850.00 yuan/ton).
1. Cost side:
As a key upstream raw material for acrylic acid, the cost price of propylene has continued to rise strongly recently, providing good cost support for the acrylic acid market. As of January 26th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6171.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.93% compared to the beginning of this month (5717.67 yuan/ton). Under the support of costs, the quotations from factories and cargo holders are relatively firm, and the willingness to ship at low prices is not strong, resulting in a decrease in low-priced supply in the market.
2. Demand side:
In late January, downstream industries such as coatings and adhesives entered a seasonal off-season for demand. Users mainly focus on digesting existing contracts or inventory, with limited willingness to actively enter the market for inquiries and restocking, and tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. The market mainly relies on the rigid demand of downstream users for partial procurement, and the overall actual order trading atmosphere is average, making it difficult to support a significant increase in prices.
Recent outlook:
Overall, in the short term, the acrylic acid market is likely to continue the narrow game state of “demand peak at the top and cost bottom at the bottom”. It is expected that the overall market will be dominated by range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the following two points:
Regional price differentiation may intensify: for example, the price increase in the East China market on January 23 may be related to local supply or short-term demand fluctuations, but whether it can continue and spread nationwide still needs to be observed for subsequent supply and demand changes.
Mid to long term outlook leaning towards looseness: From a more macro perspective of annual supply and demand, based on existing analysis and predictions, with the introduction of new production capacity in the future, the overall fundamentals of China’s acrylic acid market may trend towards looseness in 2026

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 23, the price of 0 # zinc was 24618 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.89% compared to the zinc price of 24402 yuan/ton on January 19.
After experiencing a sharp rise in zinc prices in the first half of the month, zinc prices have been fluctuating within a range of correction this week, with a clear rebound sentiment.
Macroscopic perspective
At the beginning of the week, the US dollar index weakened, while China’s 2025 GDP data met expectations, jointly boosting market sentiment and supporting zinc prices.
Raw material end
At present, the import window for zinc ore in China is still open, but the number of quotations from import ore traders is relatively small, resulting in the continuous low level of zinc concentrate processing fees. Although the profits of the smelter have been restored, the growth rate of production is relatively limited.
Supply and demand side
The domestic market has entered a low season, and demand is showing a weak trend: as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream industries such as galvanizing have started holiday mode, and market demand has weakened accordingly. Although there has been a certain degree of decline in domestic social inventory later this week, the overall demand support is clearly insufficient, causing the premium of Shanghai spot zinc to continue to hover at a low level. The continuous accumulation of domestic zinc ingot inventory and weakened demand have become the main factors suppressing the price of zinc in Shanghai.
The operating rate of downstream primary processing enterprises has shown a continuous downward trend, influenced by multiple factors such as environmental protection production restrictions, reduced order volume, and high price suppression. The purchasing willingness of enterprises such as galvanizing, die-casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide has significantly decreased, and the pressure on finished product inventory has continued to rise. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises are gradually entering a shutdown mode, and market demand is further weakening.
comprehensive analysis
In the short term, zinc prices may continue to fluctuate. Due to the influence of the Spring Festival holiday, market trading activity is sluggish, and the weak supply-demand pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term.