Before the Spring Festival, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market had entered a state of flat trading and stable prices after a brief period of strong operation at the beginning of the month. The market situation after the Spring Festival will mainly depend on the pace of downstream resumption of work.
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 11th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 3800 yuan/ton. As the Spring Festival holiday approached, trading turned weak and entered a stable state of “price but no market”.
Market forecast after the Spring Festival
Supply: In early February, some production facilities were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a temporary tightening of spot goods. After the holiday, the maintenance equipment will resume production in a centralized manner, and the accumulated inventory before the holiday is waiting to be digested; The expected increase in production capacity suppresses the medium-term space.
Requirement: Prior to the Spring Festival, downstream industries conducted a round of essential stocking to support prices. After the holiday, the electrolyte/PC resumed work in late February and returned to normal in early March; Procurement is mainly based on small orders for urgent needs, with a wait-and-see approach.
Cost: The prices of the main raw materials, propylene oxide and methanol, decreased in early February, weakening the driving force on the cost side. After the holiday, methanol/PO fluctuated at a low level, making it difficult to provide strong upward mobility.
After the holiday, it is expected that supply will recover faster than demand, and the pre holiday price effect will fade. Market trading is light, and manufacturers are offering discounts to reduce inventory. It is expected that prices may slightly decline. As downstream work gradually resumes and demand recovers, prices will stop falling and stabilize, showing an overall trend of weak first and then stable, narrow fluctuations, and difficult to rise significantly.
Upward risks: rebound in raw materials, unexpected electrolyte demand, and unexpected equipment maintenance
Downward risk: Early production of new capacity, unexpected resumption of downstream work, and centralized price reductions and destocking by manufacturers

price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market remained strong and consolidated in mid February, with most spot prices of various brands fluctuating. As of February 9th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 12833.33 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -1.03% compared to the beginning of the month.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: In early February, the overall load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises remained stable and slightly increased. The second line of Zhejiang Petrochemical has been restarted at the end of January, with the overall average operating rate of the industry dropping by 5% to over 86%, and the weekly average production exceeding 70000 tons. Due to the rapid digestion of social inventory at the beginning of the year, the production and sales pressure of aggregation factories remains at a relatively low level. Overall, the supply side’s support for PC is still acceptable.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic bisphenol A market continued its upward trend from the end of January in early February. The current increase in domestic supply of bisphenol A is limited, while phenol and acetone have followed the rise of crude oil and are currently consolidating at high levels. The high rigidity of raw materials has pushed up the theoretical cost of bisphenol A, forcing the holders to firmly raise prices and providing certain support for the cost of PC. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of new production capacity implementation and the risk of raw material price fluctuations in the future market.
On the demand side: The improvement in profitability of terminal enterprises is limited, and the load position of PC downstream factories is still not ideal. At the end of January, the centralized delivery of contract orders gradually ended, easing the tight supply situation in the early stage. At the same time, after the price increase, the buyer’s stocking has returned to caution, and coupled with the basic end of pre holiday stocking, the buyer’s willingness to continue building warehouses is not strong. However, due to the tight supply of goods in some areas, spot prices remain firm. Overall, the demand side provides moderate support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
On the eve of the Spring Festival, the domestic PC market was running at a high price. The price of upstream bisphenol A remains positive, and the cost value can still provide support for PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants is stable with small increases, and there is a slight trend of relaxed supply in the future. During the holiday, the trading in the front court has returned to calm, and buyers are cautious in their mentality, with small orders being the main focus of their operations. It is expected that the PC market will continue to operate strongly after the holiday.

Cobalt prices have fluctuated and fallen this week
According to the Commodity Cobalt Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the cobalt price on February 6th was 417400 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 6.16% compared to the cobalt price of 444800 yuan/ton on February 1st; Compared to January 1st, the cobalt price of 462100 yuan/ton fluctuated and fell by 9.67%. The recovery of cobalt exports in the Democratic Republic of Congo has led to an increase in supply expectations in the cobalt market. In January, sales of new energy vehicles declined, resulting in a decrease in demand in the cobalt market and a decrease in demand for supply recovery. As a result, cobalt prices fluctuated and fell.
Supply situation of cobalt market
Tengkefeng Gulumei Mining, a subsidiary of China Molybdenum Corporation (CMOC), the world’s second-largest cobalt producer, has officially launched its first shipment sampling under the new export quota system. With the continuous promotion of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo, it is expected that cobalt supply will resume in the future. Huayou Cobalt, Greenmei and other Indonesian projects are steadily releasing production capacity. Indonesia plans to impose a 1.5% -2% royalty tax on associated cobalt in July 2026, which will increase the cost of cobalt mines in the long term and stimulate cobalt mining and exports in the short term. Short term growth in cobalt market supply.
Cobalt market demand trend
Affected by the off-season of the Spring Festival holiday market, last year’s high base, and policy changes, the overall sales of new energy vehicles have significantly declined compared to the previous month. In January 2026, the Chinese new energy vehicle market showed characteristics of a total decline, a general decline compared to the previous month, and a year-on-year differentiation. Wholesale sales were about 800000 vehicles, a year-on-year decline of over 15% and a month on month decline of about 40%. The sales of new energy vehicles have declined, leading to a decrease in demand for cobalt in the market.
Market Overview and Future Outlook
According to data analysts from Shengyi Society, cobalt prices in February continued their downward trend from January with a slight decline. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have significantly declined, and the demand for cobalt in the market has declined. The expected growth of the cobalt market in the future is not good, coupled with the expected recovery of cobalt supply in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the growth of cobalt supply in Indonesia. Before the Chinese New Year, the cobalt market showed a trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and cobalt prices were weakly consolidating before the Spring Festival. With the resumption of production after the holiday, cobalt prices are expected to fluctuate and rise. In April, cobalt prices in the Democratic Republic of Congo fell after it was concentrated in Hong Kong.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate on February 5th was 1160 yuan/ton, which is 0.58% higher than the average market price of 1153 yuan/ton on February 1st.
2、 Market analysis
Supply and demand situation
This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices have been steadily rising. This week, the operating rate of coking grade ammonium sulfate remained stable, while the operating rate of domestic grade ammonium sulfate was slightly adjusted, with little fluctuation in the supply side. The demand for ammonium sulfate in the market is stable, and downstream purchases are made on demand. There is a demand for replenishment before the holiday, and ammonium sulfate manufacturers have no pressure to ship.
market situation
As of February 5th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 1085 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 1130-1170 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent trend of the ammonium sulfate market has been dominant. At present, the ammonium sulfate market is strong and optimistic, with a relatively balanced supply and demand side. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will be relatively strong in the short term and will continue to consolidate and operate.

1、 Core viewpoint
According to the latest market data in early February 2026, the Chinese liquefied gas market, especially the Shandong market, which is an important production and consumption area, is clearly showing a core pattern of “strong outside and weak inside, under pressure from top to bottom”. Despite the rigid support of high international costs, the weak fundamentals in the domestic market have led to a lack of market momentum. Since the end of 2025, the export price of civilian gas in Shandong has shown a fluctuating downward trend, and the increase in refinery production is difficult to obtain market response. Terminal price push has also continued to encounter obstacles. As of February 3rd, the benchmark price of liquefied gas in Shengyi Society was 4355.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.3% compared to the beginning of this month (4412.50 yuan/ton).
2、 In depth analysis of price trends: from “strong support” to “weak reality”
From November 2025 to mid January 2026, the export price (transportation) of civilian gas in Shandong experienced a period of high stalemate. The price fluctuates narrowly within the range of 4500-4600 yuan/ton. During this period, the main logic of the market was “cost driven”. Taking the February 2026 Saudi CP (contract price) as an example, propane was set at $545/ton and butane was set at $540/ton, with landed costs far exceeding the domestic selling price at that time, forming a solid “price floor” and effectively suppressing the potential for deep decline.
However, the turning point occurred in late January. Starting from January 24th, the price has embarked on a smooth downward spiral. As of February 3rd, the price has fallen from its recent high to the 4300 yuan/ton platform, with the largest drop in the range approaching 6%. This trend completely breaks the balance under cost support, indicating that the dominant force of weak domestic demand has overwhelmed high cost support, and the market has entered the “weak reality” pricing stage.
3、 Market pressure: comprehensive analysis of multiple factors
Some refineries must maintain a certain operating load during the Spring Festival period to ensure the smooth operation of their facilities, resulting in the continuous production of liquefied gas as a byproduct and the formation of a stable supply flow. Faced with the expectation of logistics stagnation caused by the Spring Festival holiday, refineries have a strong demand for inventory clearance and risk avoidance, and tend to increase shipments before the holiday to reduce inventory pressure. However, the current market’s carrying capacity is seriously insufficient, and this “increment” directly translates into downward pressure on prices.
The main obstacle to price pushing at import ports lies in the dilemma of being caught in a “pincer attack”: on the one hand, the high international import costs put enormous pressure on them to bear losses, and price pushing is an internal urgent need to turn losses around; On the other hand, domestic demand is weak – the main downstream PDH industry strongly resists high priced raw materials due to its own losses, while the civilian market is bearish on the future and only purchases on demand, resulting in a “price but no market” after the port price increases. At the same time, the continuously declining domestic gas prices have formed significant comparative advantages and substitution pressure, further locking in the pricing space of the port. Therefore, the fundamental reason for the current obstruction of pricing actions is the combined effect of cost rigidity, demand elasticity, and substitution competition.
4、 Future prospects
In the short term, the market will enter the Spring Festival mode, with trading tending to be light and prices expected to be mainly weakly consolidated. In the last week before the holiday, it is not ruled out that some downstream companies may carry out a final round of small-scale inventory replenishment to ensure holiday usage, or form a weak support for prices, but it is difficult to change the overall decline.