According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 17th to 21st (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port quotations fell from 2020 yuan/ton to around 1995 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.24% during the period, a month on month drop of 11.92%, and a year-on-year drop of 21.76%. Affected by factors such as reverse flow of port goods, the methanol inventory in ports has slightly decreased, but the high inventory continues to suppress the market, making it difficult for the methanol market in ports to improve, and the downward trend is mainly continuing.
As of the close on November 21st, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2601, opened at 2016 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2029 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2001 yuan/ton. It closed at 2004 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 7 yuan or 0.35% from the previous trading day’s settlement. Transaction volume 1085596, open position 1402474, daily increase position -25359.
On the cost side, coal inventory remains at a regular level, mainly for essential purchases, and prices continue to operate steadily, providing strong support on the cost side. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, the continuous external procurement of olefins in mainland China, coupled with downstream demand for rigid procurement, lacks the willingness to actively stockpile goods, and the strength of favorable factors is insufficient. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards negative factors.
On the supply side, the planned maintenance and reduction of methanol production facilities will decrease, while the number of recovery facilities will increase, resulting in an overall increase in market supply. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of November 20th, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at 316.5-317.5 US dollars per ton; The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 88.5-89.5 cents per gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 259.5-260.5 euros/ton.
In the future forecast, the overall profitability of the upstream and downstream industrial chains is weak, and there is no obvious sign of contraction on the supply side, in the absence of substantial positive factors to support it. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market is still mainly weak.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 7005 yuan/ton on November 17th, and the average price was 6990 yuan/ton on November 21st, a decrease of 0.21%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9100 yuan/ton on November 17th and 9033 yuan/ton on November 21st, a decrease of 0.73%. The average price of HDPE (2426H) on November 17th was 7532 yuan/ton, and on November 21st it was 7457 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.00%.
This week, polyethylene continues to show a weak trend, and the market lacks positive support. The maintenance of the equipment has decreased compared to the early stage, and new equipment has been put into operation. In addition, with the increase of imported goods in the long term, the supply pressure has increased. In terms of greenhouse film, demand has slowed down compared to the previous period; In terms of plastic film, demand is in the off-season; Downstream procurement of packaging film is flat, with a focus on essential needs; Insufficient follow-up of new orders by wire drawing enterprises, resulting in weak production; The overall downstream delivery of polyethylene is cautious, with weak demand. The wide fluctuations in crude oil prices have limited impact on the polyethylene market.
The market lacks positive support, and the sentiment in the market is bearish. It is expected that polyethylene will mainly operate weakly.

Recently (11.13-11.20), the domestic EVA market has been weak and declining. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 20th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 10400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95% from 10500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The demand for downstream photovoltaics and foam production is relatively weak; Domestic EVA equipment still maintains high supply pressure during start-up; In addition, the weak downward trend in the price of raw material vinyl acetate has led to an overall weakening of the EVA market.
Recently (11.13-11.20), EVA production has remained stable at around 8.5%, and there is still supply pressure in the EVA market. During the cycle, the price of raw material ethylene remained stable, while the price of vinyl acetate slightly decreased, and the cost faced weakened support from EVA. As of November 19th, the domestic price of ethylene in Sinopec East China was 6200 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared to the price on November 13th; As of November 19th, the market price of vinyl acetate in East China was 5650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74% from 5750 yuan/ton on November 13th.
Recently (11.13-11.20), there has been a lack of significant positive support for the demand in the EVA market. Downstream photovoltaic and foam terminal orders have been slow to follow up, and spot digestion has been slow. Some EVA manufacturers have continued to lower their ex factory prices, resulting in a weak downward trend in the EVA market.
Future forecast: Overall, the cost support for EVA will weaken, and the demand for downstream photovoltaic and foam industries will weaken. In addition, there are plans for new equipment to be put into production in the later stage of EVA, and the overall fundamentals of EVA are weak. It is expected that the weak consolidation of EVA spot market will be the main trend in the later stage.

This week, the trading center of the epichlorohydrin market shifted upward and maintained stable operation. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 14th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 11400 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.7% compared to the beginning of this month.
Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: This week, the price of raw material propylene is running strong. There is still support on the cost side, and the center of gravity of epichlorohydrin has shifted upward. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 14th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 5960.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.61% compared to the beginning of this month (6058.25 yuan/ton).
On the demand side, there is a concentrated replenishment phenomenon downstream, and the market trading atmosphere is relatively positive, with an overall improvement compared to the previous period. However, with the concentrated replenishment of downstream products, the market trading atmosphere has turned cold, and companies tend to sell at high prices. Downstream companies have begun to operate cautiously, with limited actual trading and a stabilizing trend in the market. It is expected that the epoxy chloropropane market price will mainly decline weakly in the later stage.
Market forecast: Business Society’s epoxy chloropropane analyst believes that there is still some support on the cost side of epoxy chloropropane, and coupled with a positive atmosphere of downstream centralized replenishment and trading, the market price of epoxy chloropropane will rise. After the downstream concentrated replenishment, the mentality of enterprises has turned cautious, and their confidence in the future has weakened. Market transactions are limited when they are high, and it is expected that the epoxy chloropropane market price will mainly decline weakly in the later stage. More attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market showed a trend of first falling and then rising this week (November 10-14). As of November 14, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4671 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.55% from the beginning of the week.
In the international crude oil market, as of November 13th, the settlement price of the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $58.69 per barrel, and the settlement price of the January Brent crude oil futures contract was $63.01 per barrel. Further follow-up is needed to address the degree of oversupply in the crude oil market, which is the core factor driving the direction of oil prices. Currently, global inventories are accumulating further, and if there continues to be unexpected accumulation, the future of oil prices is expected to continue to shift downward in the tug of war.
In terms of PTA supply, the overall domestic production has slightly decreased, and the industry operating rate is around 76%. There is a maintenance plan for the facilities in East China next week, while other facilities will remain stable and production will slightly decrease.
The downstream polyester industry’s load has narrowly declined to 87%, even though the domestic polyester industry’s storage capacity has increased during the week. Therefore, the supply reduction of the polyester industry is greater than the increase. We mainly rely on essential procurement and lack sustained replenishment motivation, resulting in a return to daily light production and sales. Terminal weaving, with the cooling and digestion, the overall order has not yet shown actual repair performance, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment.
Business analysts believe that PTA supply will remain tight in the short term, while demand will remain stable. Terminal demand is starting to decline, procurement enthusiasm is hindered, and the focus of crude oil is shifting downwards. It is expected that PTA market prices will weaken.