The domestic ABS market continued to weaken in November, with most spot prices of various grades lowered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 1st, the average price of ABS sample products was 8572.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -6.26% compared to early November.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Since November, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry has fluctuated narrowly. Early restart of Zhenjiang 7 series production line; Some production lines of Zhejiang Petrochemical are carrying out equipment upgrade tasks; Sinopec’s INEOS benzene collar frontline maintenance shutdown. After completing the upgrade task of Zhejiang Petrochemical in the interval, he returned; Jilin Petrochemical has started to increase production; The coexistence of load increase and cost maintenance in Shandong region. The overall performance of the month was mixed, with the industry’s overall operating level fluctuating around 71%, and the weekly average production exceeding 143000 tons. The on-site supply remains abundant, and the inventory position of the aggregation enterprise is close to 260000 tons, holding firm at a high level. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, and the supply side’s support for ABS spot prices continues to be weak.
Cost factor: At the end of November, the overall ABS upstream three material market remained stagnant, which had a weak impact on boosting ABS costs. Acrylonitrile has already fallen to a low point at the beginning of the month, and downstream users have followed up with restocking to stimulate suppliers to slightly increase their prices. However, due to the stable and fluctuating operating rates in various downstream sectors, coupled with the overall loose supply, the market continues to lack upward momentum and may face downward adjustment pressure.
At the end of November, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated after falling. The early spot prices fell to a low level, attracting some replenishment orders and driving the market trading atmosphere to improve. However, due to weak downstream terminal demand and bearish supply performance, the overall butadiene market has entered a range of volatile market conditions under the dual negative impact. At present, the upstream synthetic rubber market is also weakening, and there is a lack of positive support within the market. It is expected that the butadiene market will mainly experience weak fluctuations in the future, with a focus on downstream procurement demand.
The styrene market recovered after a decline within the month, with overall fluctuations being the main trend. During this period, the raw material pure benzene fluctuated in the range, which had limited assistance to styrene. On the other hand, styrene is not as good as the off-season demand range. Although there will be an early shutdown and maintenance of Sinochem Quanzhou in the second half of the month, which will benefit the supply side from unplanned reductions, downstream production on the consumer side will remain flat. After the short-term favorable supply and demand situation is exhausted, it is expected that the styrene market will continue to face increased resistance in the short term.
On the demand side: Affected by the weakened profitability of terminal enterprises and external market turbulence, the consumption of ABS’s main downstream electrical shell industry was hindered during the month, and there was no increase in future production. The downstream demand for ABS has not increased significantly, and the factory load is average. The overall stocking logic of terminal enterprises still maintains the urgent need for replenishment, and the flow rate of goods supply is slow. The inventory position of merchants is also at a high level of stalemate, and under the increasing pressure of de stocking in the field, enterprises and merchants continue to offer discounts and take orders. The Mid month E-commerce Shopping Festival has limited impact on industry consumption, and the cautious atmosphere in both domestic and foreign markets has resulted in poor industry momentum. Overall, there has been no improvement in the demand side’s support for the ABS market.
Future forecast

The domestic ABS market maintained a downward trend in November. The production load of the aggregation plant remains stable with small fluctuations, while consumer demand remains low and flat. Business analysts believe that the long-term supply-demand imbalance of ABS has plagued the market, dragging down spot prices. At the same time, the upstream three material market is deadlocked, and the mentality of industry players is often negative. In the short term, there is a lack of positive guidance, and it is expected that downward pressure on ABS will still exist.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province has slightly declined this week (11.24-11.28), with an average market price of 16100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16%.
This week, the magnesium ingot market showed a relatively strong and stable performance in the first half of the week. However, in the middle and later stages of the week, the overall market showed a trend of stability and weakening, with a slight decline. According to market feedback, mainstream factories in Fugu area have adjusted their quotations to 16000 yuan/ton to 16100 yuan/ton including tax this morning. Meanwhile, the market conditions in other regions have also shown weak and stable operating characteristics.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, at the beginning of this week, the factory set the quotation at 16100 yuan/ton for the sake of stable prices. However, in the middle and later stages of the week, due to the continued sluggish demand and reduced market trading activity, many magnesium companies flexibly adjusted their sales strategies based on the market situation and slightly lowered their quotations to 16000 yuan/ton. Meanwhile, due to cost pressures, there are few lower priced quotes available in the market.
In terms of demand, the overall transaction volume in downstream markets is not well followed up, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. At present, there has been no significant improvement in the supply-demand relationship, which puts certain pressure on the operation of the magnesium market; Given that the current magnesium price has fallen near the factory’s breakeven line, it is expected that the difficulty of further price reductions will increase in the future.
Raw material end
The prices of coal, blue charcoal, and ferrosilicon remain stable, and the overall cost remains largely unchanged.
comprehensive analysis
From the current supply-demand situation analysis, there are no significant signs of improvement on the demand side. Against the backdrop of a loose supply-demand relationship, it is difficult for magnesium market prices to rebound; However, given that magnesium prices have already fallen to the low range of the year, with the support of cost factors, the difficulty of further decline in magnesium market prices will increase. The magnesium ingot market is expected to maintain a weak, stable, and consolidating trend.

Aluminum prices rose first and then fell in November
Aluminum prices first rose and then fell in November. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 27, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 21473.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85% compared to the market average price of 21293.33 yuan/ton on November 1; Compared to the market average price of 21933.33 yuan/ton on November 13th, it has decreased by 2.10%.
The aluminum price has exceeded the 21000 mark and is at a relatively high level in the past 1-2 years. The price of raw material alumina has fallen from its high level, and the profit per ton of aluminum is currently in a relatively good position.
Supply side: Capacity rigidity highlights limited incremental growth
Domestic: As of November, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has remained at 44.135 million tons, and the operating rate is approaching the “ceiling” of production capacity (the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is about 45.84 million tons, and the new production capacity of 1.345 million tons has been put into operation in 2025, with only 1.23 million tons waiting to be put into operation, and the long-term supply growth rate is slowing down; there may be new production capacity plans in Xinjiang in the short term, which are expected to bring a small increase in supply, but the impact on the overall pattern is limited.
Overseas: Supply disruptions still exist, with Iceland’s Grundatangi aluminum plant (with a capacity of 320000 tons per year) reducing production by about 2/3 due to electrical equipment failures (affecting production capacity of 200000 tons per year), Mozambique’s aluminum plant facing the risk of power contract expiration (or shutting down 520000 tons of production capacity after March 2026), and insufficient resilience in overseas supply, supporting the global aluminum price risk premium.
Cost side: phased relief of long-term upward pressure
Minor cost reduction: This week, the theoretical production cost of electrolytic aluminum has slightly decreased due to the reduction in alumina prices, partially easing the cost pressure on enterprises;
Concerns about energy costs: the price of thermal coal first fell and then rose, and there is a possibility of an increase in the price of thermal power electricity; At the same time, the dry season is approaching, and hydropower prices are facing upward pressure, which may drag down corporate profits in the future;
Profit level: Despite the decrease in costs, aluminum prices have synchronously rebounded. The theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum this week has slightly narrowed compared to last week, and the industry still maintains strong profitability (with an average weekly profit of about 5806 yuan/ton).
Demand side: Structural differentiation and emerging fields become the core driving force
The demand for construction aluminum (aluminum profiles, aluminum templates, etc.) has shown weak growth, with a year-on-year decrease of 19.8% in new construction area from January to October. The lag in completion has made it difficult to boost in the short term, and the construction rate of aluminum profiles has dropped to 52.1% on a weekly basis (week on week -0.5%), with sluggish orders for construction profiles.
New energy vehicles: In October, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales exceeded 50% for the first time (reaching 51.6%). Under the trend of industry lightweighting, the average aluminum consumption per vehicle for new energy vehicles in China is expected to approach 245 kilograms by 2025. The demand for aluminum in components such as body panels and battery casings continues to drive, and the production rate of automotive profiles remains relatively high.
Power infrastructure: The investment in the power grid and the construction of ultra-high voltage are steadily advancing, providing stable support for the demand for aluminum stranded wires and aluminum conductors. The operating rate of aluminum cables is maintained at 63.4% supported by orders, becoming a “ballast stone” for aluminum consumption.

Photovoltaic: The long-term growth logic is stable, but there is no significant project dynamics in the short term. The module production is expected to decrease month on month (November is expected to be 42.64GW, month on month -3.18%), and the demand for aluminum frames and brackets is relatively flat.
Market forecast: Short term oscillation, long-term strong bias
Short term electrolytic aluminum is intertwined with bullish and bearish factors, forming a confrontation between macro bearish and fundamental support.
Negative factors: The expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in December has cooled down, the US dollar has strengthened, the new production capacity in Xinjiang has brought about an increase in supply, and high prices continue to suppress downstream processing links;
Positive factors: The expectation of domestic consumption stimulus policies is still in place, the impressive data of new energy vehicles provides long-term confidence, and overseas supply disruptions (such as low natural gas storage capacity in Germany or rising energy costs) support external aluminum prices.
Expected range: The operating range for electrolytic aluminum prices is 21100-22000 yuan/ton, with a focus on overseas monetary policy trends and the pace of domestic inventory depletion.
In the long run, the center of gravity of electrolytic aluminum prices will rise in 2026, which is easy to rise but difficult to fall.
On the supply side, the domestic production capacity of 45 million tons remains stable, while overseas growth mainly comes from Indonesia (with newly invested production capacity of 1.22-1.67 million tons, but some production capacity is shut down to offset). The rigidity of global electrolytic aluminum supply is significant, and any unexpected supply disturbance may push up prices.
On the demand side: The decline in traditional sectors (real estate) has narrowed, while demand in emerging sectors (new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, AI related power facilities) continues to grow. Strategic emerging industries such as aerospace and low altitude economy have opened up medium – and long-term demand space in the “15th Five Year Plan”.
On the cost side, the overall price of alumina is weak, but there is a risk of an upward trend in electricity costs (coal prices may rise under the “anti involution” policy). The electrolytic aluminum industry maintains strong profitability, supporting the bottom of prices.
Expected range: The center of gravity of electrolytic aluminum prices will rise in 2026, with an operating range of 19800-24500 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market has been stagnant and consolidating recently, at a relatively high level in the past two months. As of November 26th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4654 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.20% compared to November 10th.
From a cost perspective, OPEC+has increased production in a new round, and the market is still concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply. The regional situation has eased, and coupled with weakened US demand, US tariff issues have dragged down global economic and demand expectations, leading to a decline in international oil prices. As of November 25th, the settlement price of the January WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $57.95 per barrel, a decrease of $0.89 or 1.5%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February was $61.80 per barrel, a decrease of $0.92 or 1.5%.
From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, the 2.2 million ton PTA plant of Yisheng Ningbo was shut down on November 20th, and the 2.5 million ton PTA plant of Honggang Petrochemical was shut down on November 17th and restarted on November 26th. The current PTA operating load is around 72%, and multiple units are under maintenance. With the completion of some short-term maintenance units, there is some pressure on the supply.
The new downstream polyester facilities have been put into operation successively, and some facilities have been postponed for maintenance again. The domestic polyester industry supply has increased, but due to the slow increase in load of the new facilities, the operating rate of the polyester industry has remained around 87%. The demand in the terminal market has shown signs of cooling down. Currently, the production pace of weaving factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions still mainly relies on orders received in the early stage as support. The pressure of new orders is gradually weakening, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is decreasing.
Business analysts believe that cost support is weak, and PTA supply will gradually recover in the future. India has cancelled the BIS certification for polyester fibers, and China’s polyester and textile exports are expected to recover. However, the domestic consumer market is weak, and we are cautious about the expectation of a rebound in future orders. Therefore, overall, PTA’s continued lack of action is insufficient.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has shown a sharp fluctuation trend recently. As of November 25th, the benchmark price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate was 92266 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.15% from the high point of the week (November 19th), a month on month increase of 21.56%, and a year-on-year increase of 14.19%; The benchmark price of domestic industrial grade lithium carbonate trading company is 90433 yuan/ton, up 21.99% month on month and 15.64% year-on-year.
The core driving force for the early rise comes from the continuous improvement of terminal demand
Downstream demand remains optimistic, with overall feedback from the materials sector indicating full orders, and the energy storage sector continuing to exceed expectations. In the first three quarters of 2025, the global cumulative shipment of energy storage cells reached 410.45GWh, a year-on-year increase of 98.5%. Among them, 170.24GWh was shipped in a single quarter in the third quarter, continuing to break the single quarter record.
In the field of new energy vehicles, in October, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, an increase of 21.1% and 20.0% year-on-year. The proportion of new car sales to total car sales reached 51.6%, setting a new historical high.
Later market sentiment fluctuations, lithium carbonate stops rising and returns to decline
On November 20th, the exchange announced the adjustment of contract fees and the establishment of stricter daily opening limits. The sentiment in the futures market has cooled down, and spot prices have stopped rising accordingly. Recent market news suggests that Ningde Times’ Jianxiawo lithium mine may resume production in early December, further putting pressure on prices.
Further cooling down market sentiment through destocking
The 14 week trend of destocking has significantly slowed down. As of the 21st, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 118400 tons, a decrease of only 2052 tons compared to the previous month, including 26100 tons of smelter inventory and 54400 tons of downstream inventory.
Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that in the medium to long term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate strongly under the situation of strong supply and demand. Rumors of short-term resumption of production will still disturb the market, and specific market changes need to be monitored.