1、 This week’s core market trend:
According to the spot monitoring of Shengyi Society, as of April 23, 2026, the benchmark price of high-quality acrylic acid in East China was reported at 12483.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 633.34 yuan/ton or 4.83% compared to early April (13116.67 yuan/ton). This week (4.20-4.23), the price accelerated its downward trend, quickly falling below the 12500 yuan/ton mark from the platform of 12883.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. On April 21, it fell 1.03%, and on April 22, it fell another 2.09%. The cumulative decline in two days exceeded 3%, and the high-level correction momentum was concentrated and released.
From a long-term trend perspective, acrylic acid experienced a doubling market in February and March, with prices skyrocketing from around 6000 yuan/ton to over 13000 yuan/ton, reaching a peak of 13116.67 yuan/ton. But after entering April, the upward trend abruptly came to an end, and prices fluctuated at a high level before turning downwards. This week’s accelerated decline officially declared the end of the unilateral upward trend, and the market entered a high-level retreat channel.
Fundamentals:
1. Supply side: The loose pattern continues to emerge, with domestic acrylic acid plant maintenance gradually coming to an end and operating rates recovering. Coupled with BASF’s suspension of acrylic acid product auctions, it breaks the previous market’s expectation of tight import sources. The lack of high price anchor points and the increased willingness of enterprises to ship have jointly driven the weakness of spot prices.
2. Demand side: Downstream resistance to high levels of acrylic acid has intensified, there is insufficient follow-up on demand, cost transmission is not smooth, the overall procurement of the industry is cautious, and the demand side continues to be weak, making it difficult to form effective support for prices.
3. Cost side: Although the core raw material propylene price of acrylic acid is still at a high level, there has been a slight correction in recent times, and the cost side’s support effect on acrylic acid prices continues to weaken. The loosening of cost support and the reversal of supply and demand patterns have resulted in a lack of significant resistance to the decline in acrylic acid prices.
Market forecast:
Based on the trend signals and fundamental changes of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society’s spot market, the following predictions are made for the price trend of acrylic acid:
In the short term, although the 10/20/30 day position is already at a low level and there is a demand for technical rebound, the signals of negative widening of the moving average and long-term super rise indicate that the bearish trend has not changed. It is expected that the price of acrylic acid will remain weakly volatile, with a core fluctuation range of 12000-12500 yuan/ton. The range of 12800-13000 yuan/ton above has formed a strong pressure level, and the rebound height is limited. If the demand side continues to show no improvement, it is not ruled out that it may fall below the 12000 yuan/ton mark.
Summary:
This week, the acrylic acid market officially established a downward trend in the supply-demand game, with a monthly decline of nearly 5%. The previous unilateral upward trend has come to an end. The Business Society Spot Market System shows that the signal of the moving average crossing below and negative expansion has confirmed a bearish trend, with both short-term oversold and long-term oversold coexisting, and there is still significant pressure for market correction. It is expected that the price of acrylic acid will continue to decline weakly and gradually return from a high level to a reasonable range. Short term operations should be mainly cautious and alert to the risk of further price drops.

Since April, the nitrile rubber market has risen first and then fallen, with an overall decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 22, the price was 22250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.87% from the beginning of the month at 22675 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 5.42% from the highest point of the cycle.
The cost side market has fallen from a high level, weakening support for nitrile rubber. As of April 22, the price of butadiene was 13766 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.91% from 18333 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of April 22, the price of acrylonitrile was 10533 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.46% from 11633 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The overall supply side is tight but stable, forming a neutral bullish support for the market. In April, some domestic devices entered the maintenance cycle, which affected local supply; But the main enterprises maintain a high operating rate, coupled with the lack of new production capacity in 2026, the market supply is sufficient but not loose, and there is no obvious supply pressure.
The demand side is slightly weak. The main downstream industries of nitrile rubber, such as automobiles and rubber hose seals, are slowly recovering, and the demand growth in the high-end new energy vehicle field has not fully compensated for the weakness in traditional fields. At the same time, the high prices of raw materials have led downstream enterprises to be cautious in their procurement, often adopting a mode of on-demand procurement and low inventory operation. High price transactions are weak, coupled with the impact of India’s anti-dumping policies, export orders are under pressure, further suppressing demand release.
In the short term, the nitrile rubber market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend from late April to early May.

This week, the epoxy propane market has shown a significant downward trend. The main reason is due to the concentrated release of high initial price increases, coupled with the gradual recovery of supply side equipment leading to market oversupply, as well as the combined effect of multiple factors such as insufficient new orders from downstream demand side and cautious procurement. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of April 21st, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 11100 yuan/ton, a decrease of -9.76% compared to the first day.
Raw material side: Recently, the trend of the propylene spot market on the cost side has diverged: Shandong spot has narrowly increased compared to the previous trading day, accompanied by a rebound in demand from industry buyers after the price hit bottom; However, the ex factory quotation of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical has been lowered by 100 yuan/ton to 8950 yuan/ton, indicating that increased supply or weak demand is putting downward pressure on spot prices. Overall, the cost support of propylene raw material for epichlorohydrin still exists. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of April 21st, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 9057.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.11% compared to the beginning of this month (8784.33 yuan/ton).
Supply side: The positive news on the supply side has subsided in the early stage, and maintenance equipment has gradually resumed. High profits have stimulated the operating rate of enterprises to rise to 90%, and the market has shifted from tight to loose. The expectation of new production capacity and resumption of production in the future further suppressed prices, resulting in a significant decline in the market price of epoxy propane this week.
Demand side: Weak downstream demand dragged down the price of epoxy propane. After the initial price increase, the downstream demand side saw a decline in new orders, resulting in a weakened demand for epoxy propane procurement; Around April 20th, many polyether companies held a wait-and-see attitude, mainly focusing on restocking for essential needs, and the transaction atmosphere was relatively weak.
Comprehensive forecast: Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that pessimistic market sentiment is still fermenting in the short term, and prices are expected to continue to be under pressure. If there are no major equipment shutdowns or policy incentives in the future, the price of epichlorohydrin may continue to remain weak and consolidate. It is recommended to focus on changes in the operating rate of supply side devices and the pace of downstream polyether procurement.

From April 13th to 20th, 2026, the domestic toluene market showed a continuous downward trend, with prices in the Shandong region falling sharply. The market price of toluene in Shandong region decreased from 7417.67 yuan/ton to 6727.67 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 9.3% during the cycle. The main reasons for the continued weakening of the market are the weakening of crude oil fluctuations on the cost side, relatively loose supply on the supply side, and weak procurement on the demand side. The overall trading atmosphere is light, and industry players tend to be cautious.
On the cost side: This week, international crude oil prices first suppressed and then rose, with the overall center of gravity shifting downwards, and the support for toluene costs continued to weaken. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East fluctuated during the week, and crude oil futures prices fluctuated significantly. Although there was a brief rebound after a sharp decline in the early stage, it did not form a sustained positive trend. The high-level decline in crude oil prices directly weakens the cost support for toluene production, coupled with increased market concerns about the future trend of crude oil, and hinders the transmission of positive news on the cost side. At the same time, the price difference between pure benzene and toluene remains loose, and the arbitrage window between PX and mixed xylene has opened. Although it provides some support for toluene, the strength is limited and it is difficult to offset the negative impact of the weakening of crude oil. As of March 13th and April 17th, the settlement price of the June contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $82.59 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the June contract is $90.38 per barrel.
Supply side:
The domestic toluene market supply remains loose, with active shipments from main refineries and Shandong refineries, and sufficient market supply. This week, the toluene units of major refineries such as Sinopec and PetroChina in China have maintained stable operation, and the listed prices have been adjusted downwards according to the market. The export sources of enterprises in South China have been steadily released; The operating load of local refining enterprises in Shandong region remains high, and due to the continuous decline in market prices, the willingness of refineries to ship has increased, actively reducing prices and increasing volume. Although the second quarter is the traditional maintenance season in the industry, there have been no large-scale maintenance projects implemented this week, and the overall production capacity of toluene in China has been fully released. Combined with the reasonable level of inventory maintained in East China ports, the market has abundant circulation of goods, and the supply side has significantly suppressed prices.
Demand side:
The downstream industry’s demand for toluene procurement continues to be sluggish, and the boost from essential needs is insufficient. During the week, downstream industries such as TDI, coatings, and solvents continued to operate at a low level, with weak consumption in the end market. Downstream factories mainly engaged in on-demand procurement and low inventory operations, showing obvious resistance to high priced toluene. Even though market prices continue to decline significantly, the pace of downstream replenishment remains slow, with on-site transactions mainly focused on small orders for essential needs and few large orders, making it difficult for the demand side to form effective support for the toluene market.
From April 13th to 20th, domestic PX quotations remained stable. Sinopec Sales Company’s PX ex factory price remained stable at 9600 yuan/ton, and the price was uniformly implemented in the East China, North China, Central China, and South China regions. The main production facilities operated smoothly, and the overall shipment rhythm was normal; The prices of Asian PX overseas markets have weakened synchronously. On April 10th, the FOB average price of Asian PX overseas markets in South Korea was about $1144/ton, and the CFR average price in China was about $1169/ton. As of April 16th, the FOB average price in South Korea has fallen to $1213/ton, and the CFR average price in China has fallen to $1238/ton. The overall price of overseas markets has slightly declined, and the domestic price trend is significantly stronger than that of overseas markets.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province fell this week (4.13-4.17), with an average market price of 17350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 17100 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.44%.
The following analysis is based on fundamentals:
Supply and demand side

On the supply side, as Shaanxi is the main production area, the operating rate of enterprises remains at a high level, which leads to the continuous accumulation of enterprise inventory. On the demand side, it is currently in the traditional off-season, and the purchasing willingness of downstream industries such as automobiles and 3C is relatively low. Most of them adopt the strategy of replenishing inventory with small orders according to demand, resulting in a sluggish overall market transaction volume. Meanwhile, there has been no significant improvement in export orders, further weakening the support of market demand for magnesium prices.

Raw material end

Recently, the price of ferrosilicon has experienced a slight decline, while the price of dolomite has remained stable, which has led to a decrease in the overall cost of magnesium smelting. The reduction in costs further weakens the support for magnesium prices, providing space for a downward trend in magnesium prices.
comprehensive forecast
Based on comprehensive technical and fundamental analysis, it is expected that magnesium prices will continue to maintain a weak and volatile downward trend next week. Among them, the integer level of 17000 yuan/ton will become a key support level. If this support level is breached, magnesium prices will further drop to around 16800 yuan/ton. In the short term, there is little opportunity for a significant rebound in magnesium prices. It is only possible for sporadic replenishment downstream to drive a slight technical recovery in prices, but the rebound height is expected to not exceed 17250 yuan/ton. In the subsequent market observation, it is necessary to focus on the changes in the operating rate of enterprises in the main production areas and the timing of downstream centralized replenishment, which will have a significant impact on the trend of magnesium prices.