According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has been fluctuating recently due to the dual effects of supply side disturbances and demand side resilience. As of December 8th, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 92500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.94% compared to the same period last week (December 1st), an increase of 16.7% year-on-year, and an increase of 14.24% year-on-year; The benchmark price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 90800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.84% compared to the same period last week, a month on month increase of 17.15%, and a year-on-year increase of 15.86.
Supply side: Continuous disturbance factors, shortage of lithium ore
The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has been shut down for 3 months, and the market news of resuming production on December 5th has passed, and the expected resumption of production has fallen through. Several traders in Yichun region have stated that the supply and demand of local lithium mica ore are gradually changing, and the supply cannot keep up with the demand.
Overseas supply shows a shrinking trend
In October 2025, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 652000 tons, a decrease of 8.3% compared to the previous month. Among them, Australia’s import volume decreased by 15% compared to the previous month, Zimbabwe’s import volume was 150000 tons (an increase of 41% compared to the previous month), and Nigeria’s import volume was 120000 tons (unchanged compared to the previous month). In October, the import volume of lithium carbonate reached 23881 tons, an increase of 21.9% compared to the previous month, of which 14800 tons were imported from Chile, accounting for 62%.
On the demand side: downstream resilience is strong, with both production and sales increasing
In October, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 170.6 GWh, a month on month increase of 12.9% and a year-on-year increase of 50.5%; The total export was 28.2 GWh, with a month on month increase of 5.5% and a year-on-year increase of 33.5%; The sales volume was 166.0 GWh, a month on month increase of 13.3% and a year-on-year increase of 50.8%, with all data showing an upward trend.
Inventory side: Continued destocking, speed may slow down
Lithium carbonate inventory continues to be in a state of destocking, and social inventory has been declining for 13 consecutive weeks, with destocking reaching 20000 tons in November alone. But it is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles in December will slightly decline compared to the previous month, and the production of battery cells and positive electrode materials is expected to slightly decline in December compared to the previous month. It is expected that lithium carbonate will continue to be sold out in December, but the magnitude will slow down compared to November.
The data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that lithium carbonate is currently in a tight supply-demand balance, with continuous supply side disruptions and strong demand side resilience. Multiple factors are driving price fluctuations, and it is still necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production and market changes at Ningde Jianxiawo Lithium Mine in the future.

This week’s news is calm, with no significant improvement in fundamentals. The industry’s capacity utilization rate remains above 80%, and there is an increase in excess supply and inventory, leading to a volatile downward trend in the market. As of December 5th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 7975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from last week; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market is 7900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from last week.
Supply surplus:
During the cycle, there was no fluctuation in the equipment, and the supply was saturated while the demand locally weakened, resulting in an increase in inventory for some enterprises. According to statistics, as of December 4th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories reached 80.6%, unchanged from the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 91800 tons, which is the same as the previous cycle. The total inventory is about 55500 tons, an increase of+0.2 million tons from last week, with some companies experiencing an increase in inventory.
Weakened demand:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries has fluctuated, with the ABS capacity utilization rate dropping to 68.3%, a decrease of -2.9% compared to last week, and the capacity base reaching 11.09 million tons per year; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises is 76.53%, which is the same as last week. However, Jilin Chemical Fiber Hebei Jigao Acrylic Fiber Plant plans to shut down for 8-10 days for maintenance in mid to late December; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity is 55.87%, which is+0.66% compared to last week. Overall, the demand has weakened.
Cost increase:
During the week, the prices of upstream propylene and synthetic ammonia increased, and the cost of raw materials for acrylonitrile production continued to rise, resulting in continued losses in acrylonitrile production this week. According to statistics, as of December 4th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 6050 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from last weekend’s 6025 yuan/ton. The average production cost of acrylonitrile is 8557 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 0.60%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -512 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of -131 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, the overall supply of acrylonitrile in the domestic market remains loose, and there are currently no plans to reduce equipment load or maintenance in the short term. Downstream users have abundant inventory, average purchasing enthusiasm, and poor trading in the spot market. There are still downward expectations in the short term, but cost pressure continues to exist, which still restricts the downward space of the market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 4, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 5670 yuan/ton. Compared with November 30 (reference price of n-butanol is 5166 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 504 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.74%.
In the first week of December, the n-butanol market in Shandong experienced a rapid recovery
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in the first week of December, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong, China showed a broad upward trend. Shandong n-butanol factories and suppliers actively raised the shipment price of n-butanol, with a cumulative increase of around 400-700 yuan/ton during the week. As of December 4th, the reference price of n-butanol in the domestic Shandong region is around 5450-5800 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of over 9% within two days.
Analysis of Market Factors
On the supply side: As we enter December, n-butanol production in Shandong province has decreased significantly, resulting in a significant reduction in overall supply of n-butanol. Supply side inventories are low, and spot supply in the market is tight, providing strong market support for n-butanol.
On the demand side: Currently, the self supply rate of raw materials downstream of n-butanol has decreased, the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials has increased, the overall volume of external procurement has increased, and inquiries have increased. The market support provided by the demand side has also improved.
In terms of cost: Recently, the market for propylene on the cost side of raw materials has been fluctuating and rising, while n-butanol still has support from the cost side. As of December 4th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6190.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.52% compared to the beginning of this month (6180.75 yuan/ton).
Future forecast
Currently, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market in Shandong is good, and the mentality of industry players has improved. The focus of transactions in the n-butanol market has shifted to the high-end. Business Society’s n-butanol data analyst predicts that in the short term, the n-butanol market will mainly operate in a strong direction, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

Market Overview:
As of November 28th, according to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the average market price of dichloromethane in Shandong region was 1695 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 5.7% this month. Compared with the same period last year, prices have dropped significantly by 41.35%, and the overall market is showing a weak pattern.
The market trend this month has been fluctuating: in the first half of the month, driven by the contraction of the supply side, the market successfully stopped falling and rebounded, with prices rising by 6.26% at one point. However, due to the sustained weakness in terminal demand, there is limited room for price increases. Entering the middle and late stages, as supply pressure rebounds and cost support significantly weakens, the market returns to a downward channel, and the price center of gravity continues to shift downward.
Supply side: Fluctuations in operating rates dominate prices, inventory pressure triggers competition
Supply contraction drives rebound: At the beginning of the month, multiple mainstream production facilities frequently shut down or reduced load operations, causing the overall operating rate of the industry to drop to a low of around 65%. The significant reduction in supply has lowered enterprise inventory to a low level, providing a solid price support foundation for the market and successfully driving price rebound.
Supply recovery suppresses the market: With the operating rate gradually recovering to around 78%, the supply of goods in the market has significantly increased. As a result, the inventory pressure of enterprises continues to accumulate. In order to seize limited orders and alleviate inventory pressure, manufacturers have adopted price reduction and promotion strategies, leading to intensified market price competition and becoming the main driving force for price drops in the middle and late months.
On the demand side: both internal and external demand are weak, restricting the market’s height
Low domestic demand performance: Downstream industries such as refrigerants, pharmaceuticals, and pesticides have shown lackluster performance, with procurement mainly focused on rigid demand and small orders, lacking the intention of large-scale stocking. Downstream industries generally hold high inventory levels, with limited ability and willingness to receive goods. Although the reduction in supply has temporarily pushed up prices, the lack of support from actual demand and volume has resulted in a weak foundation for price increases.
Stable external demand but limited impact: In October, China’s dichloromethane exports were 18850.28 tons, with a slight increase of 0.11% month on month, showing stable performance. However, compared to the huge domestic supply volume, the export scale is difficult to effectively digest the surge in production and cannot reverse the negative situation caused by weak domestic demand.
Cost side: collapse of raw material support, weakening the price bottom line
The methanol market is under pressure and declining: As the main raw material, the methanol market is facing continuous pressure from high port inventory, high supply, and weak demand, resulting in overall price pressure. Despite short-term fluctuations caused by factors such as limited gas expectations and coal price support in the latter half of the year, the fundamental weakness has not changed. This month, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society fell by 2.4% to 2103.33 yuan/ton. The continuous decline in raw material costs has weakened the bottom line of dichloromethane prices from below.
Weak support for the liquid chlorine market: The liquid chlorine market in Shandong has fluctuated this month, with frequent price fluctuations and overall weakness, making it difficult to form effective and sustained cost support for dichloromethane.
Future outlook:
Overall, negative factors dominate the current dichloromethane market:

Supply pressure still exists: the industry operating rate has recovered to a relatively high level, and if the current load is maintained, the market supply of goods will remain abundant.
Difficult to see improvement in demand: Downstream industries generally perform flat, and the possibility of a significant rebound in demand in the short term is low, which will continue to constrain the upward trend of the market.
Weak cost support: The fundamentals of the main raw material methanol market are weak, and it is expected that it will be difficult to form a strong cost push in the short term.
Therefore, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will continue to face downward pressure in the short term, with weak operations being the main focus. Subsequently, it is necessary to closely monitor the changes in upstream raw material prices, the dynamic equipment of major factories, and the adjustment of operating loads. Any significant change in either party may become a key variable to break the current deadlock.

The domestic ABS market continued to weaken in November, with most spot prices of various grades lowered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 1st, the average price of ABS sample products was 8572.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -6.26% compared to early November.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Since November, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry has fluctuated narrowly. Early restart of Zhenjiang 7 series production line; Some production lines of Zhejiang Petrochemical are carrying out equipment upgrade tasks; Sinopec’s INEOS benzene collar frontline maintenance shutdown. After completing the upgrade task of Zhejiang Petrochemical in the interval, he returned; Jilin Petrochemical has started to increase production; The coexistence of load increase and cost maintenance in Shandong region. The overall performance of the month was mixed, with the industry’s overall operating level fluctuating around 71%, and the weekly average production exceeding 143000 tons. The on-site supply remains abundant, and the inventory position of the aggregation enterprise is close to 260000 tons, holding firm at a high level. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, and the supply side’s support for ABS spot prices continues to be weak.
Cost factor: At the end of November, the overall ABS upstream three material market remained stagnant, which had a weak impact on boosting ABS costs. Acrylonitrile has already fallen to a low point at the beginning of the month, and downstream users have followed up with restocking to stimulate suppliers to slightly increase their prices. However, due to the stable and fluctuating operating rates in various downstream sectors, coupled with the overall loose supply, the market continues to lack upward momentum and may face downward adjustment pressure.
At the end of November, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated after falling. The early spot prices fell to a low level, attracting some replenishment orders and driving the market trading atmosphere to improve. However, due to weak downstream terminal demand and bearish supply performance, the overall butadiene market has entered a range of volatile market conditions under the dual negative impact. At present, the upstream synthetic rubber market is also weakening, and there is a lack of positive support within the market. It is expected that the butadiene market will mainly experience weak fluctuations in the future, with a focus on downstream procurement demand.
The styrene market recovered after a decline within the month, with overall fluctuations being the main trend. During this period, the raw material pure benzene fluctuated in the range, which had limited assistance to styrene. On the other hand, styrene is not as good as the off-season demand range. Although there will be an early shutdown and maintenance of Sinochem Quanzhou in the second half of the month, which will benefit the supply side from unplanned reductions, downstream production on the consumer side will remain flat. After the short-term favorable supply and demand situation is exhausted, it is expected that the styrene market will continue to face increased resistance in the short term.
On the demand side: Affected by the weakened profitability of terminal enterprises and external market turbulence, the consumption of ABS’s main downstream electrical shell industry was hindered during the month, and there was no increase in future production. The downstream demand for ABS has not increased significantly, and the factory load is average. The overall stocking logic of terminal enterprises still maintains the urgent need for replenishment, and the flow rate of goods supply is slow. The inventory position of merchants is also at a high level of stalemate, and under the increasing pressure of de stocking in the field, enterprises and merchants continue to offer discounts and take orders. The Mid month E-commerce Shopping Festival has limited impact on industry consumption, and the cautious atmosphere in both domestic and foreign markets has resulted in poor industry momentum. Overall, there has been no improvement in the demand side’s support for the ABS market.
Future forecast

The domestic ABS market maintained a downward trend in November. The production load of the aggregation plant remains stable with small fluctuations, while consumer demand remains low and flat. Business analysts believe that the long-term supply-demand imbalance of ABS has plagued the market, dragging down spot prices. At the same time, the upstream three material market is deadlocked, and the mentality of industry players is often negative. In the short term, there is a lack of positive guidance, and it is expected that downward pressure on ABS will still exist.