According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 4, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 5670 yuan/ton. Compared with November 30 (reference price of n-butanol is 5166 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 504 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.74%.
In the first week of December, the n-butanol market in Shandong experienced a rapid recovery
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in the first week of December, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong, China showed a broad upward trend. Shandong n-butanol factories and suppliers actively raised the shipment price of n-butanol, with a cumulative increase of around 400-700 yuan/ton during the week. As of December 4th, the reference price of n-butanol in the domestic Shandong region is around 5450-5800 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of over 9% within two days.
Analysis of Market Factors
On the supply side: As we enter December, n-butanol production in Shandong province has decreased significantly, resulting in a significant reduction in overall supply of n-butanol. Supply side inventories are low, and spot supply in the market is tight, providing strong market support for n-butanol.
On the demand side: Currently, the self supply rate of raw materials downstream of n-butanol has decreased, the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials has increased, the overall volume of external procurement has increased, and inquiries have increased. The market support provided by the demand side has also improved.
In terms of cost: Recently, the market for propylene on the cost side of raw materials has been fluctuating and rising, while n-butanol still has support from the cost side. As of December 4th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6190.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.52% compared to the beginning of this month (6180.75 yuan/ton).
Future forecast
Currently, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market in Shandong is good, and the mentality of industry players has improved. The focus of transactions in the n-butanol market has shifted to the high-end. Business Society’s n-butanol data analyst predicts that in the short term, the n-butanol market will mainly operate in a strong direction, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

Market Overview:
As of November 28th, according to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the average market price of dichloromethane in Shandong region was 1695 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 5.7% this month. Compared with the same period last year, prices have dropped significantly by 41.35%, and the overall market is showing a weak pattern.
The market trend this month has been fluctuating: in the first half of the month, driven by the contraction of the supply side, the market successfully stopped falling and rebounded, with prices rising by 6.26% at one point. However, due to the sustained weakness in terminal demand, there is limited room for price increases. Entering the middle and late stages, as supply pressure rebounds and cost support significantly weakens, the market returns to a downward channel, and the price center of gravity continues to shift downward.
Supply side: Fluctuations in operating rates dominate prices, inventory pressure triggers competition
Supply contraction drives rebound: At the beginning of the month, multiple mainstream production facilities frequently shut down or reduced load operations, causing the overall operating rate of the industry to drop to a low of around 65%. The significant reduction in supply has lowered enterprise inventory to a low level, providing a solid price support foundation for the market and successfully driving price rebound.
Supply recovery suppresses the market: With the operating rate gradually recovering to around 78%, the supply of goods in the market has significantly increased. As a result, the inventory pressure of enterprises continues to accumulate. In order to seize limited orders and alleviate inventory pressure, manufacturers have adopted price reduction and promotion strategies, leading to intensified market price competition and becoming the main driving force for price drops in the middle and late months.
On the demand side: both internal and external demand are weak, restricting the market’s height
Low domestic demand performance: Downstream industries such as refrigerants, pharmaceuticals, and pesticides have shown lackluster performance, with procurement mainly focused on rigid demand and small orders, lacking the intention of large-scale stocking. Downstream industries generally hold high inventory levels, with limited ability and willingness to receive goods. Although the reduction in supply has temporarily pushed up prices, the lack of support from actual demand and volume has resulted in a weak foundation for price increases.
Stable external demand but limited impact: In October, China’s dichloromethane exports were 18850.28 tons, with a slight increase of 0.11% month on month, showing stable performance. However, compared to the huge domestic supply volume, the export scale is difficult to effectively digest the surge in production and cannot reverse the negative situation caused by weak domestic demand.
Cost side: collapse of raw material support, weakening the price bottom line
The methanol market is under pressure and declining: As the main raw material, the methanol market is facing continuous pressure from high port inventory, high supply, and weak demand, resulting in overall price pressure. Despite short-term fluctuations caused by factors such as limited gas expectations and coal price support in the latter half of the year, the fundamental weakness has not changed. This month, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society fell by 2.4% to 2103.33 yuan/ton. The continuous decline in raw material costs has weakened the bottom line of dichloromethane prices from below.
Weak support for the liquid chlorine market: The liquid chlorine market in Shandong has fluctuated this month, with frequent price fluctuations and overall weakness, making it difficult to form effective and sustained cost support for dichloromethane.
Future outlook:
Overall, negative factors dominate the current dichloromethane market:

Supply pressure still exists: the industry operating rate has recovered to a relatively high level, and if the current load is maintained, the market supply of goods will remain abundant.
Difficult to see improvement in demand: Downstream industries generally perform flat, and the possibility of a significant rebound in demand in the short term is low, which will continue to constrain the upward trend of the market.
Weak cost support: The fundamentals of the main raw material methanol market are weak, and it is expected that it will be difficult to form a strong cost push in the short term.
Therefore, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will continue to face downward pressure in the short term, with weak operations being the main focus. Subsequently, it is necessary to closely monitor the changes in upstream raw material prices, the dynamic equipment of major factories, and the adjustment of operating loads. Any significant change in either party may become a key variable to break the current deadlock.

The domestic ABS market continued to weaken in November, with most spot prices of various grades lowered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 1st, the average price of ABS sample products was 8572.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -6.26% compared to early November.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Since November, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry has fluctuated narrowly. Early restart of Zhenjiang 7 series production line; Some production lines of Zhejiang Petrochemical are carrying out equipment upgrade tasks; Sinopec’s INEOS benzene collar frontline maintenance shutdown. After completing the upgrade task of Zhejiang Petrochemical in the interval, he returned; Jilin Petrochemical has started to increase production; The coexistence of load increase and cost maintenance in Shandong region. The overall performance of the month was mixed, with the industry’s overall operating level fluctuating around 71%, and the weekly average production exceeding 143000 tons. The on-site supply remains abundant, and the inventory position of the aggregation enterprise is close to 260000 tons, holding firm at a high level. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, and the supply side’s support for ABS spot prices continues to be weak.
Cost factor: At the end of November, the overall ABS upstream three material market remained stagnant, which had a weak impact on boosting ABS costs. Acrylonitrile has already fallen to a low point at the beginning of the month, and downstream users have followed up with restocking to stimulate suppliers to slightly increase their prices. However, due to the stable and fluctuating operating rates in various downstream sectors, coupled with the overall loose supply, the market continues to lack upward momentum and may face downward adjustment pressure.
At the end of November, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated after falling. The early spot prices fell to a low level, attracting some replenishment orders and driving the market trading atmosphere to improve. However, due to weak downstream terminal demand and bearish supply performance, the overall butadiene market has entered a range of volatile market conditions under the dual negative impact. At present, the upstream synthetic rubber market is also weakening, and there is a lack of positive support within the market. It is expected that the butadiene market will mainly experience weak fluctuations in the future, with a focus on downstream procurement demand.
The styrene market recovered after a decline within the month, with overall fluctuations being the main trend. During this period, the raw material pure benzene fluctuated in the range, which had limited assistance to styrene. On the other hand, styrene is not as good as the off-season demand range. Although there will be an early shutdown and maintenance of Sinochem Quanzhou in the second half of the month, which will benefit the supply side from unplanned reductions, downstream production on the consumer side will remain flat. After the short-term favorable supply and demand situation is exhausted, it is expected that the styrene market will continue to face increased resistance in the short term.
On the demand side: Affected by the weakened profitability of terminal enterprises and external market turbulence, the consumption of ABS’s main downstream electrical shell industry was hindered during the month, and there was no increase in future production. The downstream demand for ABS has not increased significantly, and the factory load is average. The overall stocking logic of terminal enterprises still maintains the urgent need for replenishment, and the flow rate of goods supply is slow. The inventory position of merchants is also at a high level of stalemate, and under the increasing pressure of de stocking in the field, enterprises and merchants continue to offer discounts and take orders. The Mid month E-commerce Shopping Festival has limited impact on industry consumption, and the cautious atmosphere in both domestic and foreign markets has resulted in poor industry momentum. Overall, there has been no improvement in the demand side’s support for the ABS market.
Future forecast

The domestic ABS market maintained a downward trend in November. The production load of the aggregation plant remains stable with small fluctuations, while consumer demand remains low and flat. Business analysts believe that the long-term supply-demand imbalance of ABS has plagued the market, dragging down spot prices. At the same time, the upstream three material market is deadlocked, and the mentality of industry players is often negative. In the short term, there is a lack of positive guidance, and it is expected that downward pressure on ABS will still exist.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province has slightly declined this week (11.24-11.28), with an average market price of 16100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16%.
This week, the magnesium ingot market showed a relatively strong and stable performance in the first half of the week. However, in the middle and later stages of the week, the overall market showed a trend of stability and weakening, with a slight decline. According to market feedback, mainstream factories in Fugu area have adjusted their quotations to 16000 yuan/ton to 16100 yuan/ton including tax this morning. Meanwhile, the market conditions in other regions have also shown weak and stable operating characteristics.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, at the beginning of this week, the factory set the quotation at 16100 yuan/ton for the sake of stable prices. However, in the middle and later stages of the week, due to the continued sluggish demand and reduced market trading activity, many magnesium companies flexibly adjusted their sales strategies based on the market situation and slightly lowered their quotations to 16000 yuan/ton. Meanwhile, due to cost pressures, there are few lower priced quotes available in the market.
In terms of demand, the overall transaction volume in downstream markets is not well followed up, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. At present, there has been no significant improvement in the supply-demand relationship, which puts certain pressure on the operation of the magnesium market; Given that the current magnesium price has fallen near the factory’s breakeven line, it is expected that the difficulty of further price reductions will increase in the future.
Raw material end
The prices of coal, blue charcoal, and ferrosilicon remain stable, and the overall cost remains largely unchanged.
comprehensive analysis
From the current supply-demand situation analysis, there are no significant signs of improvement on the demand side. Against the backdrop of a loose supply-demand relationship, it is difficult for magnesium market prices to rebound; However, given that magnesium prices have already fallen to the low range of the year, with the support of cost factors, the difficulty of further decline in magnesium market prices will increase. The magnesium ingot market is expected to maintain a weak, stable, and consolidating trend.

Aluminum prices rose first and then fell in November
Aluminum prices first rose and then fell in November. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 27, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 21473.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85% compared to the market average price of 21293.33 yuan/ton on November 1; Compared to the market average price of 21933.33 yuan/ton on November 13th, it has decreased by 2.10%.
The aluminum price has exceeded the 21000 mark and is at a relatively high level in the past 1-2 years. The price of raw material alumina has fallen from its high level, and the profit per ton of aluminum is currently in a relatively good position.
Supply side: Capacity rigidity highlights limited incremental growth
Domestic: As of November, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has remained at 44.135 million tons, and the operating rate is approaching the “ceiling” of production capacity (the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is about 45.84 million tons, and the new production capacity of 1.345 million tons has been put into operation in 2025, with only 1.23 million tons waiting to be put into operation, and the long-term supply growth rate is slowing down; there may be new production capacity plans in Xinjiang in the short term, which are expected to bring a small increase in supply, but the impact on the overall pattern is limited.
Overseas: Supply disruptions still exist, with Iceland’s Grundatangi aluminum plant (with a capacity of 320000 tons per year) reducing production by about 2/3 due to electrical equipment failures (affecting production capacity of 200000 tons per year), Mozambique’s aluminum plant facing the risk of power contract expiration (or shutting down 520000 tons of production capacity after March 2026), and insufficient resilience in overseas supply, supporting the global aluminum price risk premium.
Cost side: phased relief of long-term upward pressure
Minor cost reduction: This week, the theoretical production cost of electrolytic aluminum has slightly decreased due to the reduction in alumina prices, partially easing the cost pressure on enterprises;
Concerns about energy costs: the price of thermal coal first fell and then rose, and there is a possibility of an increase in the price of thermal power electricity; At the same time, the dry season is approaching, and hydropower prices are facing upward pressure, which may drag down corporate profits in the future;
Profit level: Despite the decrease in costs, aluminum prices have synchronously rebounded. The theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum this week has slightly narrowed compared to last week, and the industry still maintains strong profitability (with an average weekly profit of about 5806 yuan/ton).
Demand side: Structural differentiation and emerging fields become the core driving force
The demand for construction aluminum (aluminum profiles, aluminum templates, etc.) has shown weak growth, with a year-on-year decrease of 19.8% in new construction area from January to October. The lag in completion has made it difficult to boost in the short term, and the construction rate of aluminum profiles has dropped to 52.1% on a weekly basis (week on week -0.5%), with sluggish orders for construction profiles.
New energy vehicles: In October, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales exceeded 50% for the first time (reaching 51.6%). Under the trend of industry lightweighting, the average aluminum consumption per vehicle for new energy vehicles in China is expected to approach 245 kilograms by 2025. The demand for aluminum in components such as body panels and battery casings continues to drive, and the production rate of automotive profiles remains relatively high.
Power infrastructure: The investment in the power grid and the construction of ultra-high voltage are steadily advancing, providing stable support for the demand for aluminum stranded wires and aluminum conductors. The operating rate of aluminum cables is maintained at 63.4% supported by orders, becoming a “ballast stone” for aluminum consumption.

Photovoltaic: The long-term growth logic is stable, but there is no significant project dynamics in the short term. The module production is expected to decrease month on month (November is expected to be 42.64GW, month on month -3.18%), and the demand for aluminum frames and brackets is relatively flat.
Market forecast: Short term oscillation, long-term strong bias
Short term electrolytic aluminum is intertwined with bullish and bearish factors, forming a confrontation between macro bearish and fundamental support.
Negative factors: The expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in December has cooled down, the US dollar has strengthened, the new production capacity in Xinjiang has brought about an increase in supply, and high prices continue to suppress downstream processing links;
Positive factors: The expectation of domestic consumption stimulus policies is still in place, the impressive data of new energy vehicles provides long-term confidence, and overseas supply disruptions (such as low natural gas storage capacity in Germany or rising energy costs) support external aluminum prices.
Expected range: The operating range for electrolytic aluminum prices is 21100-22000 yuan/ton, with a focus on overseas monetary policy trends and the pace of domestic inventory depletion.
In the long run, the center of gravity of electrolytic aluminum prices will rise in 2026, which is easy to rise but difficult to fall.
On the supply side, the domestic production capacity of 45 million tons remains stable, while overseas growth mainly comes from Indonesia (with newly invested production capacity of 1.22-1.67 million tons, but some production capacity is shut down to offset). The rigidity of global electrolytic aluminum supply is significant, and any unexpected supply disturbance may push up prices.
On the demand side: The decline in traditional sectors (real estate) has narrowed, while demand in emerging sectors (new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, AI related power facilities) continues to grow. Strategic emerging industries such as aerospace and low altitude economy have opened up medium – and long-term demand space in the “15th Five Year Plan”.
On the cost side, the overall price of alumina is weak, but there is a risk of an upward trend in electricity costs (coal prices may rise under the “anti involution” policy). The electrolytic aluminum industry maintains strong profitability, supporting the bottom of prices.
Expected range: The center of gravity of electrolytic aluminum prices will rise in 2026, with an operating range of 19800-24500 yuan/ton.