According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market fluctuated at a low level in April 2026, with an average price of 16575 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16615 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 0.24%.
On April 28th, the Business Society Lead Index was 101.06, a decrease of 0.06 points from yesterday, a decrease of 24.59% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (November 29, 2016), and an increase of 35.41% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
In April, the domestic price of 1 # lead ingots showed a trend of rising and falling, with an overall narrow range oscillation pattern.
The supply side is showing a moderate expansion trend.
In the field of primary lead, smelters that underwent previous maintenance in Henan and Hunan regions have resumed production one after another, while Yunnan refineries have maintained stable and orderly production. The weekly operating rate of primary lead has increased to over 64% month on month, indicating a stable overall supply. The processing fee for domestically produced lead concentrate remains stable. Although the tight supply and demand situation in the mining sector has not changed, the benefits brought by the rising prices of by-products such as sulfuric acid and silver have effectively stimulated the production enthusiasm of smelters.
In terms of recycled lead, there is a complex situation where “production reduction expectations” and “production recovery” are intertwined. After the drop in lead prices, waste battery recyclers held onto their stocks and waited for an increase, causing a temporary reversal in profits from recycled lead smelting. Some small and medium-sized factories were forced to reduce production. However, the tight supply of waste battery raw materials at the end of the month has eased, reducing smelting losses and driving the weekly operating rate of recycled lead to a rebound. However, constrained by the shortage of raw materials, the recycled lead industry as a whole is hovering around the breakeven point, making it difficult to return to a state of significant profitability, and the recovery process of production is slow.
demand side
April coincides with the traditional off-season for consumption, and the overall demand side is weak. The market demand for replacing starting batteries for electric bicycles and cars is sluggish, and dealers have accumulated inventory, resulting in significant pressure to reduce inventory. Purchasing attitudes are cautious. Battery companies generally adopt the strategy of “production based on sales and procurement according to demand”, only replenishing lead ingots for essential needs, with extremely low acceptance of high priced sources. It is expected that the replenishment efforts before May Day will also be very limited.
Inventory end
The social inventory is still at a relatively high level in recent years; LME inventory has fallen to a high of 294000 tons, and global inventory pressure has not fully eased.
comprehensive summary
The overall technical aspect presents the characteristics of “weak rebound, top building and decline”. The short-term upward movement of the moving average system at the beginning of the month can quickly decline due to the inability of fundamentals to support it; The double dead cross of the moving average and the return of the price to below the suppression zone indicate that the previous golden cross signal has been falsified, and selling pressure dominates. The current high degree of adhesion and weak directionality of the moving average system is usually a manifestation of market long short equilibrium but unclear trend direction, indicating that prices are difficult to break out of the range and emerge from the trend market, and are likely to continue the range oscillation pattern.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 27th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 5810 yuan/ton, and the DMF market price showed a clear downward trend this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price remained in a relatively stable range, but over time, the price continued to decline. As of the weekend, the mainstream market DMF price had fallen by about 300-400 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the week, and the price differences in different regions were also quite obvious. The price decline in East China was relatively large, while the price in South China was relatively strong, but also had a certain degree of decline.
2、 Cause analysis
Market supply: This week, the overall operating rate of DMF production enterprises in China is at a high level, and some devices that were previously repaired have resumed production. The market supply has further increased, and the operating rate of some large enterprises has remained above 80%, which has continued to increase the pressure on market supply.
Raw material cost: Raw material prices: The price trend of methanol and liquid ammonia will directly affect the production cost and market price of DMF. If raw material prices continue to decline, DMF prices will have greater room for decline; On the contrary, if raw material prices stabilize or rise, the extent of DMF price decline may be limited to some extent.
Downstream demand: D Polyurethane industry: As the main downstream area of DMF, the polyurethane industry has continued to experience weak demand this week, and the growth in demand for polyurethane products in the end market is sluggish, resulting in low operating rates of polyurethane production enterprises. In order to control costs, enterprises have reduced their procurement of DMF, which has put significant pressure on market prices. Leather industry: The leather industry is also facing difficulties. The strict implementation of environmental protection policies has restricted the production of some leather enterprises, and at the same time, market competition is fierce, resulting in poor product sales. This has led to a significant reduction in the demand for DMF by leather enterprises, further suppressing the demand for DMF in the DMF market. Pharmaceutical and pesticide industries: The demand for DMF in the pharmaceutical and pesticide industries is relatively stable, but the proportion is relatively small. The production situation in these two industries is basically normal this week. DMF The demand has not shown significant fluctuations, but it cannot support the overall market demand.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that DMF prices may continue to decline in the short term, and the situation of oversupply in the market is difficult to change in the short term. Downstream demand is also unlikely to improve significantly in the short term. If raw material prices continue to fall, DMF costs will further decrease, and prices may continue to decline.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province fell this week (4.20-4.24), with an average market price of 17050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16550 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.93%.
The following analysis is based on fundamentals:
Supply and demand side

On the supply side, the production status of smelting enterprises in the current main production areas remains stable. The factory’s spot inventory is at a historically low level, leading to a general reluctance to sell among enterprises. Mainstream large smelting enterprises have reduced their inventory of spot goods, prioritizing the smooth delivery of previously signed long-term orders. Overall, there has been no concentrated selling phenomenon in the market.

On the demand side, the traditional off-season characteristics of consumption are further highlighted, and downstream demand in areas such as automobiles, aluminum alloys, and steel desulfurization continues to be weak. Terminal enterprises only maintain small orders for essential needs without centralized replenishment actions; The export market has not shown a significant recovery, and overseas orders have fallen short of expectations, making it impossible to hedge the domestic demand gap. Market transactions remain sluggish, and there is a strong sentiment of buying up rather than buying down.

Raw material end

The prices of raw materials such as ferrosilicon and blue charcoal remain stable but are weakening, providing weak support for magnesium prices. The price of Fugu 75 silicon iron has declined compared to the middle of the week, and the market is weak. Purchasing is limited according to demand, and demand follow-up is flat. Some enterprises have resumed production, putting pressure on the market. However, in some regions, spot prices are tight and production orders are placed. Raw material prices remain stable, and manufacturers have a low willingness to lower prices and ship, so they are more cautious. Futures open high and fall low, trading is cautious, long and short positions are deadlocked, and the short-term 75 silicon iron market may fluctuate within a range. The price of Fugu blue charcoal is temporarily stable, with upstream raw coal steadily supporting costs and a moderate increase in supply. Downstream procurement is cautious, resulting in a weak balance between supply and demand. Coupled with weak demand for ferrosilicon and other materials, the fundamentals are weak, and the short-term price of blue charcoal may continue to be weak.
integrated forecasting
Although there is a possibility of technical recovery after oversold in the short term, the rebound space is relatively limited in an environment where demand has not significantly rebounded and supply remains loose, and can only be seen as a weak pullback. At present, two key variables need to be focused on: firstly, whether the downstream will carry out centralized stocking actions before the May Day holiday; Secondly, whether the smelting enterprises in the main production areas will initiate production reduction and maintenance plans is the only core factor that can reverse the short-term decline. If there are no favorable factors, magnesium prices are likely to continue their downward trend.

1、 This week’s core market trend:
According to the spot monitoring of Shengyi Society, as of April 23, 2026, the benchmark price of high-quality acrylic acid in East China was reported at 12483.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 633.34 yuan/ton or 4.83% compared to early April (13116.67 yuan/ton). This week (4.20-4.23), the price accelerated its downward trend, quickly falling below the 12500 yuan/ton mark from the platform of 12883.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. On April 21, it fell 1.03%, and on April 22, it fell another 2.09%. The cumulative decline in two days exceeded 3%, and the high-level correction momentum was concentrated and released.
From a long-term trend perspective, acrylic acid experienced a doubling market in February and March, with prices skyrocketing from around 6000 yuan/ton to over 13000 yuan/ton, reaching a peak of 13116.67 yuan/ton. But after entering April, the upward trend abruptly came to an end, and prices fluctuated at a high level before turning downwards. This week’s accelerated decline officially declared the end of the unilateral upward trend, and the market entered a high-level retreat channel.
Fundamentals:
1. Supply side: The loose pattern continues to emerge, with domestic acrylic acid plant maintenance gradually coming to an end and operating rates recovering. Coupled with BASF’s suspension of acrylic acid product auctions, it breaks the previous market’s expectation of tight import sources. The lack of high price anchor points and the increased willingness of enterprises to ship have jointly driven the weakness of spot prices.
2. Demand side: Downstream resistance to high levels of acrylic acid has intensified, there is insufficient follow-up on demand, cost transmission is not smooth, the overall procurement of the industry is cautious, and the demand side continues to be weak, making it difficult to form effective support for prices.
3. Cost side: Although the core raw material propylene price of acrylic acid is still at a high level, there has been a slight correction in recent times, and the cost side’s support effect on acrylic acid prices continues to weaken. The loosening of cost support and the reversal of supply and demand patterns have resulted in a lack of significant resistance to the decline in acrylic acid prices.
Market forecast:
Based on the trend signals and fundamental changes of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society’s spot market, the following predictions are made for the price trend of acrylic acid:
In the short term, although the 10/20/30 day position is already at a low level and there is a demand for technical rebound, the signals of negative widening of the moving average and long-term super rise indicate that the bearish trend has not changed. It is expected that the price of acrylic acid will remain weakly volatile, with a core fluctuation range of 12000-12500 yuan/ton. The range of 12800-13000 yuan/ton above has formed a strong pressure level, and the rebound height is limited. If the demand side continues to show no improvement, it is not ruled out that it may fall below the 12000 yuan/ton mark.
Summary:
This week, the acrylic acid market officially established a downward trend in the supply-demand game, with a monthly decline of nearly 5%. The previous unilateral upward trend has come to an end. The Business Society Spot Market System shows that the signal of the moving average crossing below and negative expansion has confirmed a bearish trend, with both short-term oversold and long-term oversold coexisting, and there is still significant pressure for market correction. It is expected that the price of acrylic acid will continue to decline weakly and gradually return from a high level to a reasonable range. Short term operations should be mainly cautious and alert to the risk of further price drops.

Since April, the nitrile rubber market has risen first and then fallen, with an overall decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 22, the price was 22250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.87% from the beginning of the month at 22675 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 5.42% from the highest point of the cycle.
The cost side market has fallen from a high level, weakening support for nitrile rubber. As of April 22, the price of butadiene was 13766 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.91% from 18333 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of April 22, the price of acrylonitrile was 10533 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.46% from 11633 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The overall supply side is tight but stable, forming a neutral bullish support for the market. In April, some domestic devices entered the maintenance cycle, which affected local supply; But the main enterprises maintain a high operating rate, coupled with the lack of new production capacity in 2026, the market supply is sufficient but not loose, and there is no obvious supply pressure.
The demand side is slightly weak. The main downstream industries of nitrile rubber, such as automobiles and rubber hose seals, are slowly recovering, and the demand growth in the high-end new energy vehicle field has not fully compensated for the weakness in traditional fields. At the same time, the high prices of raw materials have led downstream enterprises to be cautious in their procurement, often adopting a mode of on-demand procurement and low inventory operation. High price transactions are weak, coupled with the impact of India’s anti-dumping policies, export orders are under pressure, further suppressing demand release.
In the short term, the nitrile rubber market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend from late April to early May.