From April 13th to 20th, 2026, the domestic toluene market showed a continuous downward trend, with prices in the Shandong region falling sharply. The market price of toluene in Shandong region decreased from 7417.67 yuan/ton to 6727.67 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 9.3% during the cycle. The main reasons for the continued weakening of the market are the weakening of crude oil fluctuations on the cost side, relatively loose supply on the supply side, and weak procurement on the demand side. The overall trading atmosphere is light, and industry players tend to be cautious.
On the cost side: This week, international crude oil prices first suppressed and then rose, with the overall center of gravity shifting downwards, and the support for toluene costs continued to weaken. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East fluctuated during the week, and crude oil futures prices fluctuated significantly. Although there was a brief rebound after a sharp decline in the early stage, it did not form a sustained positive trend. The high-level decline in crude oil prices directly weakens the cost support for toluene production, coupled with increased market concerns about the future trend of crude oil, and hinders the transmission of positive news on the cost side. At the same time, the price difference between pure benzene and toluene remains loose, and the arbitrage window between PX and mixed xylene has opened. Although it provides some support for toluene, the strength is limited and it is difficult to offset the negative impact of the weakening of crude oil. As of March 13th and April 17th, the settlement price of the June contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $82.59 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the June contract is $90.38 per barrel.
Supply side:
The domestic toluene market supply remains loose, with active shipments from main refineries and Shandong refineries, and sufficient market supply. This week, the toluene units of major refineries such as Sinopec and PetroChina in China have maintained stable operation, and the listed prices have been adjusted downwards according to the market. The export sources of enterprises in South China have been steadily released; The operating load of local refining enterprises in Shandong region remains high, and due to the continuous decline in market prices, the willingness of refineries to ship has increased, actively reducing prices and increasing volume. Although the second quarter is the traditional maintenance season in the industry, there have been no large-scale maintenance projects implemented this week, and the overall production capacity of toluene in China has been fully released. Combined with the reasonable level of inventory maintained in East China ports, the market has abundant circulation of goods, and the supply side has significantly suppressed prices.
Demand side:
The downstream industry’s demand for toluene procurement continues to be sluggish, and the boost from essential needs is insufficient. During the week, downstream industries such as TDI, coatings, and solvents continued to operate at a low level, with weak consumption in the end market. Downstream factories mainly engaged in on-demand procurement and low inventory operations, showing obvious resistance to high priced toluene. Even though market prices continue to decline significantly, the pace of downstream replenishment remains slow, with on-site transactions mainly focused on small orders for essential needs and few large orders, making it difficult for the demand side to form effective support for the toluene market.
From April 13th to 20th, domestic PX quotations remained stable. Sinopec Sales Company’s PX ex factory price remained stable at 9600 yuan/ton, and the price was uniformly implemented in the East China, North China, Central China, and South China regions. The main production facilities operated smoothly, and the overall shipment rhythm was normal; The prices of Asian PX overseas markets have weakened synchronously. On April 10th, the FOB average price of Asian PX overseas markets in South Korea was about $1144/ton, and the CFR average price in China was about $1169/ton. As of April 16th, the FOB average price in South Korea has fallen to $1213/ton, and the CFR average price in China has fallen to $1238/ton. The overall price of overseas markets has slightly declined, and the domestic price trend is significantly stronger than that of overseas markets.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province fell this week (4.13-4.17), with an average market price of 17350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 17100 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.44%.
The following analysis is based on fundamentals:
Supply and demand side

On the supply side, as Shaanxi is the main production area, the operating rate of enterprises remains at a high level, which leads to the continuous accumulation of enterprise inventory. On the demand side, it is currently in the traditional off-season, and the purchasing willingness of downstream industries such as automobiles and 3C is relatively low. Most of them adopt the strategy of replenishing inventory with small orders according to demand, resulting in a sluggish overall market transaction volume. Meanwhile, there has been no significant improvement in export orders, further weakening the support of market demand for magnesium prices.

Raw material end

Recently, the price of ferrosilicon has experienced a slight decline, while the price of dolomite has remained stable, which has led to a decrease in the overall cost of magnesium smelting. The reduction in costs further weakens the support for magnesium prices, providing space for a downward trend in magnesium prices.
comprehensive forecast
Based on comprehensive technical and fundamental analysis, it is expected that magnesium prices will continue to maintain a weak and volatile downward trend next week. Among them, the integer level of 17000 yuan/ton will become a key support level. If this support level is breached, magnesium prices will further drop to around 16800 yuan/ton. In the short term, there is little opportunity for a significant rebound in magnesium prices. It is only possible for sporadic replenishment downstream to drive a slight technical recovery in prices, but the rebound height is expected to not exceed 17250 yuan/ton. In the subsequent market observation, it is necessary to focus on the changes in the operating rate of enterprises in the main production areas and the timing of downstream centralized replenishment, which will have a significant impact on the trend of magnesium prices.

price trend
According to data from Shengyishe Spot News, the domestic PC market fluctuated at a high level in the first half of April, with some brands experiencing an overall decline in spot prices. As of April 15th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 16533.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.10% from the beginning of the month.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: Since April, domestic PC aggregation enterprises have experienced a mutual restart and maintenance. In the early stage, the construction of Zhejiang Petrochemical increased, and the single line of Luxi Petrochemical was temporarily shut down. After the overall load change within the interval decreased, it rebounded, and the average operating rate returned to around 87%. The current weekly average production is 70000 tons. Although the load is relatively high, there is still room for contraction in the future supply due to ongoing maintenance plans to be fulfilled. Overall, the supply side’s support for PC is average.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic bisphenol A market gradually declined in the first half of April. Affected by the sharp decline in international crude oil prices, the prices of phenol and acetone have remained stagnant and consolidated. Subsequently, it caused a drag on the price center of bisphenol A in China. At the same time, the current supply of bisphenol A has limited changes and demand has weakened. Merchants are actively shipping and tend to sell at discounted prices. The overall support for PC cost value has weakened.
On the demand side: The improvement in profitability of terminal enterprises is limited, and the load position of PC downstream factories is still average. The current PC price is at a three-year high, and buyers are cautious in stocking up and have poor willingness to build warehouses. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the liquidity of goods has decreased. In the early stage, the atmosphere of PC market speculation was basically cooled down by the fluctuation of crude oil. Currently, the mentality of merchants has weakened, and their offers are subject to the market. Overall, the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
In the first half of April, the domestic PC market fluctuated at a high level. The price of upstream bisphenol A is gradually falling, causing a drag on the cost value of PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants is stable and fluctuating, with overall high load and limited expectations of supply tightening. On exchange trading is mainly based on weak demand, and buyers are cautious and take as they please. Transactions are mainly small orders. It is expected that in the short term, the PC market may be suppressed by a sharp decline in the upstream market, and there may still be room for downward adjustment.

Since 2026, the domestic EVA market has seen a significant increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 13th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 13350 yuan/ton, an increase of 36.69% from 9766 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year.
From January to February, EVA prices fluctuated narrowly, and market trading sentiment was sluggish. At this stage, photovoltaic installation and film production have entered the traditional off-season, with downstream demand mainly focused on rigid procurement and a lack of incremental support on the demand side; At the same time, the domestic EVA equipment is running smoothly, with sufficient supply of imported goods, and the supply and demand are in a weak balance state. Coupled with the high inventory in the early stage of the industry, the pressure of destocking has suppressed the upward momentum of prices, showing an overall trend of bottoming out and oscillation.
Since March, the EVA market has experienced an explosive rise, with prices skyrocketing from a low platform of 10150 yuan/ton to 13350 yuan/ton by mid April, with a cumulative increase of over 30%. There are three main influencing factors: firstly, on April 1st, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products was cancelled. From late March to April, module companies concentrated on rushing to install, directly driving photovoltaic film factories to urgently replenish inventory. EVA for photovoltaic film accounted for 50% -60% of its total demand, and the short-term outbreak on the demand side disrupted the supply-demand balance; Secondly, in the second quarter, domestic EVA equipment underwent a large-scale centralized maintenance, with a phased reduction in supply from April to May. Coupled with fluctuations in overseas geopolitical situations, the import arbitrage window was closed, resulting in a sharp decline of over 50% in imported goods compared to the same period last year, highlighting the tight spot supply pattern; Thirdly, the upward trend in crude oil prices has driven up the prices of upstream raw materials such as ethylene and vinyl acetate, resulting in an increase in EVA production costs. Production enterprises have continuously raised their factory prices, further strengthening the bullish sentiment in the market.
As of early April, EVA construction has started around 7.8-8.10%. During the cycle, the prices of raw materials ethylene and vinyl acetate remained high, and the cost faced EVA support strengthened. As of April 13th, the domestic price of ethylene in Sinopec East China was 9800 yuan/ton, an increase of 62.39% from 6150 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year; As of April 13th, the market price of vinyl acetate in East China was 12300 yuan/ton, an increase of 34.45% from 5875 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year.
With the peak of photovoltaic installation rush passing, the marginal slowdown of downstream export demand, the decline of speculative demand, and the market entering a wait-and-see period of long short game; However, supply side maintenance is still ongoing, and spot supply is not fully relaxed at present, making it difficult for prices to significantly decline in the short term.
Future forecast
Looking ahead to the future, the Business Society Spot Analysis System shows that the EVA spot price curve has gradually approached the 10 day moving average in recent days, indicating that the recent upward momentum has weakened and EVA prices may adjust weakly in the short term; In addition, the current EVA price is at a one-year high, and market operations suggest cautious buying in the short term, with a focus on wait-and-see.

This week, there has been a continuous shortage of overseas supply, with high prices of acrylonitrile in foreign markets and continued support for exports. However, domestic demand is gradually shrinking, and there is a lack of spot buying potential, which has hindered the market from continuing to explore. In addition, negotiations in some northern markets have slightly declined. As of April 10th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 12000-12200 yuan/ton, compared to last week’s 12000-12300 yuan/ton, and the high-end price has dropped by 100 yuan/ton; Short distance delivery to Shandong market is 11700-11800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to last week’s 11750-11850 yuan/ton; CFR South Asia is priced at 1920 US dollars per ton, up 80 US dollars per ton from last week’s 1840 US dollars per ton.
Supply reduction:
Jilin Petrochemical’s 712000 tons/year acrylonitrile unit will undergo rotational maintenance and load reduction this week. During the week, Jilin Petrochemical will carry out maintenance on its propylene glycol plant, resulting in a decrease in industry capacity utilization and supply reduction. According to statistics, as of April 9th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories was 71.58%, which was -2.51% compared to the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 83500 tons, which is less than 30000 tons compared to the previous cycle. Both supply and demand have decreased to a certain extent within the week, and domestic demand remains flat, with little change in enterprise inventory. As of April 8th, the total inventory was around 50000 tons, which was basically the same as last week.
Decreased domestic demand:
This week, downstream users are resistant to high raw material prices, and the overall utilization rate of production capacity in major industries has declined. Among them, Zhejiang Petrochemical and other facilities have reduced their load, and the utilization rate of ABS production capacity is 59.40%, which is -0.8% compared to last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises was 59.38%, unchanged from last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 57.87%, which was -0.49% compared to last week. Overall, both ABS and acrylamide have shown a decrease in negative load, resulting in a decrease in overall demand for acrylonitrile.
Cost increase:
During the week, the price of raw material propylene increased, leading to a rise in costs, while the price of acrylonitrile remained relatively stable, resulting in a narrowing of theoretical profits and worsening of production losses. According to statistics, as of April 9th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 9150 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from last week’s 8805 yuan/ton. The average production cost of acrylonitrile was 11967 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 6.35%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was+183 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of -395 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, the domestic acrylonitrile market is currently in a stalemate and consolidation, the external situation is still unstable, and the overseas supply shortage continues. However, domestic demand remains weak, and spot buying is insufficient. Under local sales pressure, the market is expected to experience a slight decline.