After repeatedly reaching new highs, the prices of precious metals have fallen sharply
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 28, 2025, the gold spot market price was 908.26 yuan/gram, an increase of 4.15% from the gold spot market price of 872.11 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month (October 1), and a decrease of 7.90% from the gold spot market price of 986.21 yuan/gram on October 21; During the month, the price of gold first rose and then fell, repeatedly reaching new highs in the early stages, but began to decline from high levels in the later stages. Currently, the overall price is still at a historical absolute high.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of silver in the market on October 28, 2025 was 11168.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 2.56% compared to the average price of 10890.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (October 1), and a decrease of 5.50% compared to the average price of 11891 yuan/kg on October 21.
Overview of precious metal and crude oil price trends
Since 2025, the price correlation between precious metals and Brent crude oil has shifted from a short-term weak positive correlation to a long-term significant negative correlation.
Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year
From the past year’s cycle, gold and silver have consistently maintained a strong positive correlation. The overall fluctuation of gold and silver prices shows a synchronous trend, and their ups and downs are basically synchronized during most of the time. For example, during the upward phase from late October 2024 to April 2025, as well as subsequent fluctuations and further upward movements, the trend directions of the two are basically consistent.
Reasons for the recent price correction
The recent decline in gold prices is the result of multiple factors such as geopolitical easing, strengthening of the US dollar, technical correction, changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations, and seasonal decline in physical demand.
1、 Geopolitical risks ease, leading to a sharp drop in safe haven demand
The geopolitical tensions that previously supported the rise in gold prices have significantly eased. In terms of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian President Zelensky said that he was ready to end the conflict, and the two sides reached a statement on the current line of contact as the starting point for negotiations; The situation in the Middle East has also made positive progress, with Israel and Hamas achieving a breakthrough in ceasefire negotiations and reducing the risk of large-scale ground attacks. At the same time, the economic and trade relations between China and the United States have released signals of easing. The Trump administration has temporarily suspended its plan to impose 100% tariffs on China and plans to hold economic and trade talks at the end of October. These changes directly weakened the market’s safe haven demand for gold, causing funds to quickly withdraw from the gold market.
2、 The strengthening of the US dollar suppresses the price of gold
The US dollar index has continued to rebound recently, breaking through the 104 level on October 23 (a new high for the year). Gold is priced in US dollars, and the strengthening of the US dollar increases the cost for investors holding other currencies to purchase gold, suppressing demand for gold. Behind the strengthening of the US dollar is the strong performance of US economic data, the market’s optimistic expectations for the US economic outlook, and the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, which has also increased the attractiveness of the US dollar.

3、 Technical overbought triggers profit taking and selling
The previous increase in gold prices was too large. The London gold price broke through $4380/ounce on October 17th, reaching a historic high, with a cumulative increase of over 30% in the short term. Technical indicators were severely overbought (RSI remained above 70 for several consecutive days). This extreme upward trend has accumulated a large amount of profit taking, and when there are negative signals in the market, investors choose to take profits and trigger chain selling. In addition, the automatic sell order triggered by the programmatic trading system after the price falls below the key support level further amplifies the decline, forming a “kill more” situation.
4、 Changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations and rising opportunity costs
The market’s expectations for the pace of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts are divided. Although most institutions expect a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the end of October meeting, recent statements by Federal Reserve officials have revealed a cautious attitude in a dovish tone, suggesting that the rate cut may not be a policy shift, but rather an “insurance measure”. This uncertainty has led to a decrease in the market’s probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut in December from 94% to 87%, with real interest rates rising from -0.1% to 0.2%. The opportunity cost of holding gold has increased, suppressing bullish sentiment.
5、 Seasonal decline in physical demand
As an important global consumer of gold, India’s peak buying season for Diwali has ended, and the purchasing frenzy generated by holiday demand has receded, entering the traditional consumption off-season in the market. According to data from the World Gold Council, India’s gold imports in October decreased by about 35% month on month, falling from 120 tons in September to 78 tons. The seasonal demand contraction directly weakened the market’s carrying capacity. The domestic market is also showing a cooling trend in demand, with a net outflow of funds in the gold ETF market, reflecting the impact of price drops on retail investor sentiment.
Future forecast
The recent decline in precious metals is the result of a resonance of factors such as profit taking, geopolitical easing, liquidity pressure, and deteriorating position structure, and belongs to a stage adjustment after the previous rise.
In the future, the precious metal market will experience short-term fluctuations, medium-term differentiation, and long-term improvement. In the long run, factors such as the continuous purchase of gold by global central banks to promote reserve diversification and the long-term challenges faced by the US dollar credit system still provide long-term support for gold prices.

Last week (October 20-26, 2025), fundamental demand was weak and order execution was the main focus. Adhesive short fibers continued to show a weak and stable trend, with prices remaining stable. The market trend of raw material dissolution slurry is stable, with average cost support. The finished product inventory of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers is not high, and there is no obvious inventory pressure at present. Downstream cotton yarn manufacturers mainly execute early orders, and the overall market speed is weak and stable. Follow up is needed, and the price of adhesive short fiber market is stagnant and weak.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, last week (October 20-26, 2025), the market price of viscose staple fiber was weakly stable. As of October 26, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 13120 yuan/ton, which was the same as the previous price.
In terms of cost: Last week (October 20-26, 2025), there was little change in the market price of raw material dissolving pulp, with a weak and stagnant situation. The cost side performance was average and limited support. As of now, the price of domestic dissolving pulp is around 6700 yuan/ton, the price of external broad-leaved pulp is around 800 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous pulp is around 870 US dollars/ton. The market prices of auxiliary materials such as liquid alkali and sulfuric acid remain stable but fluctuate slightly, with average cost support.
Low inventory level
The industry supply remains stable, and the current daily operating rate in the market remains at around 75%. The inventory levels of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers are not high, and downstream yarn enterprises pick up goods according to demand. The overall inventory of the adhesive short fiber market has decreased, and the supply fluctuation in the industry is not significant. Some manufacturers have low inventory, and the support from the supply side is limited.
Downstream on-demand pickup
The operating rate of downstream cotton yarn market equipment has slightly increased, and price fluctuations are not significant. As of October 26th, the price of ring spun R30S in Jiangsu region is around 17200 yuan/ton, and the price of ring spun R40S is around 18300 yuan/ton. The market is in a traditional off-season of demand, and downstream cotton yarn market transactions are not ideal. Only a few models of vortex spun cotton yarn have slightly better export orders. Cotton mills mainly consume raw material inventory and replenish urgently needed goods, with no significant improvement in demand.
Future forecast
On the raw material side, the main material dissolution slurry market and the auxiliary material sulfuric acid market are generally stable, while the liquid alkali market may experience a narrow decline. Therefore, it is expected that the market price trend of adhesive short fiber raw materials will decline in the short term, and the cost support will be insufficient.
Supply and demand side: The operating rate of the adhesive short fiber market equipment may not fluctuate significantly, and some manufacturers have low inventory levels. Therefore, it is expected that the supply side support of the adhesive short fiber market will be strong in the short term; The demand in the terminal market has increased, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. It is expected that the driving force of the adhesive short fiber market from the demand side will be limited in the short term.
Overall, the main raw material dissolution slurry market may be weak and stagnant, with sufficient overall supply. Downstream yarn factories mainly sign orders and purchase on demand. Under the interweaving of on-site news, adhesive short fiber manufacturers may maintain their previous quotations. Therefore, Business Society analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will remain stable with small movements in the short term, and the price is expected to be around 13000-13200 yuan/ton for acceptance.

According to this week’s polyester filament market has gone out of the trend of “first restraining and then rising”, showing a steady adjustment trend as a whole, the market supply and demand situation has improved, and it is expected that the price will maintain a strong trend of volatility in the short term. As of October 17th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6400-6700 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 7750-8000 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 6500-6800 yuan/ton.
At the beginning of the week, the polyester filament market as a whole showed a weak downward trend, with a slight shift in price focus. On October 20th, the prices of polyester POY, FDY, and DTY all experienced varying degrees of decline. The price of polyester POY was 6750 yuan, with a daily increase and decrease of -2.61%. The price of polyester FDY was 6826.67 yuan, with a daily increase and decrease of -2.52%. The price of polyester DTY was 7931.25 yuan, with a daily increase and decrease of -1.86%. This is mainly due to the weak operation of the upstream polyester raw material market at that time, insufficient cost support, and cautious downstream procurement, resulting in an average market transaction atmosphere.
Starting from Wednesday, the market situation has changed, and the price of polyester filament has stabilized and partially rebounded. On October 23rd, due to the rise in international oil prices and the improvement of the fabric market, some polyester factories reduced their discounts on polyester filament or raised their prices by 50-100 yuan/ton. On October 24th, Rongsheng Petrochemical’s semi transparent DTY was partially increased by 50-100, POY and FDY were both increased by 50, some FDY was increased by 100, and the slice buyout price was increased by 50.
The turning point is mainly reflected in two aspects:
Cost support strengthens: International oil prices significantly rebounded on October 22-23. The cost of aggregation has increased accordingly, compressing the profit margin of polyester filament production enterprises, resulting in a significant increase in their willingness to raise prices, and a decrease in some low-end negotiated prices.
Boosting demand: According to news on October 23rd, the arrival of cold air has led to a rebound in demand for winter fabrics, with demand for essential goods driving increased production and sales. For example, on October 21st, the average production and sales rate of polyester filament sample enterprises soared to 367.9%. The rebound in production and sales means that the pressure on factory inventory has been eased, further supporting prices.
Based on the above factors, on October 24th, polyester filament factories in Jiangsu Province raised their prices or reduced their discounts, ranging from 50-100 yuan/ton.
At present, the inventory of polyester filament in polyester factories is still high, and the inventory of greige fabric is significantly higher than the same period last year. Weaving factories are basically based on production quantity and cautious in procurement. But with the improvement of the market situation, polyester manufacturers have adjusted their quotations to seize market share, and the market mentality has improved. Some companies have increased their willingness to raise prices. Overall, it is expected that the price of polyester filament will maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate on October 23 was 1070 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the average market price of 1070 yuan/ton on October 17.
2、 Market analysis
supply and demand situation
This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices have been running steadily. The operating rate of ammonium sulfate enterprises is relatively stable this week. Last week, the price of ammonium sulfate continued to rise, and the market’s cautious attitude increased, resulting in a stalemate in the price of ammonium sulfate. At present, the supply of ammonium sulfate in the market is stable, and downstream demand for replenishment is urgent. There is currently no favorable news internationally, and market transactions are limited.
market situation
As of October 23rd, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 960 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 1030-1080 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has been running steadily in recent days. At present, there is a supply-demand game in the ammonium sulfate market, with a decrease in market trading volume and a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market will remain stagnant and operate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 22, 2025, the gold spot market price was 945.46 yuan/gram, an increase of 8.41% from the gold spot market price of 872.11 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month (October 1), and a decrease of 4.13% from the gold spot market price of 986.21 yuan/gram on October 21; During the month, the price of gold first rose and then fell, repeatedly reaching new highs in the early stages. Today, it has fallen back from its high point, and the overall price is still at a historical absolute high.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of silver in the market on October 22, 2025 was 11299.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 3.76% compared to the average price of 10890.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (October 1), and a decrease of 4.39% compared to the average price of 11891 yuan/kg on October 21.
Overview of precious metal and crude oil price trends
Since 2025, the price correlation between precious metals and Brent crude oil has shifted from a short-term weak positive correlation to a long-term significant negative correlation.
Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year
The market trends of gold and silver during the one-year cycle from October 22, 2024 to October 22, 2025:
1. Overall trend: synchronous rise, gold performance stronger
Both gold (blue line) and silver (pink line) have shown a significant upward trend, with gold prices fluctuating by over 56.53% and silver prices exceeding 40.34%. The precious metal sector as a whole is in a strong market. Among them, the increase in gold is significantly higher than that of silver, reflecting the advantages of gold in terms of hedging and preservation properties. Under market driving factors such as macroeconomic environment and geopolitics, funds tend to allocate more to gold, making its increase lead.
2. Stage trend: fluctuating upward, accelerating upward in the later stage
In the initial period (October 2024 April 2025), both gold and silver experienced a fluctuating upward trend, during which gold’s rise exceeded 30% first, while silver slowly rose in volatility, with a relatively lagging increase. The upward momentum of precious metals in this stage mainly comes from the safe haven demand brought about by global economic uncertainty, as well as changes in monetary policy expectations.
In the mid-term (April 2025 to August 2025), gold enters a period of high volatility, with an increase maintained in the range of 25% -30%; Silver began to accelerate its catch-up, with its increase rapidly rising from single digits to nearly 20%. At this stage, the market’s allocation logic for precious metals has shifted from a single safe haven to a dual logic of “safe haven+industrial demand (silver)”. Silver’s industrial attributes (such as new energy and electronic applications) have begun to exert force, driving its price increase to expand.

In the later period (August 2025 to October 2025), both gold and silver entered an accelerated upward trend, especially with gold breaking through 56% and silver breaking through 40% in the final stage. This stage may be strongly driven by factors such as the escalation of geopolitical risks and the easing of monetary policies in major economies around the world (such as expectations of interest rate cuts). The attractiveness of precious metals as anti inflation and safe haven assets is further amplified, and a large influx of funds is driving up prices rapidly.
3. Market driven logic
Macroeconomics: The uncertainty of global economic growth, changes in inflation levels, and the direction of monetary policy by major central banks (such as the Federal Reserve) (such as the start of interest rate cutting cycles) are the core macroeconomic factors driving up precious metal prices.
Safe haven demand: The safe haven sentiment triggered by regional conflicts, financial market fluctuations, and other events has a particularly significant driving effect on gold, making it a “safe harbor” for funds.
Industrial demand: The industrial application demand of silver in new energy, electronics and other fields provided additional support for its rise in the later stage of the market, narrowing the gap with gold’s rise.
In summary, the precious metal market in the past year has been characterized by “gold leading the rise, silver following suit, and later accelerating together”, presenting a strong bull market overall, and the driving factors of the market have evolved from a single logic in the early stage to a diversified logic in the later stage.
Reason for today’s callback
On October 22, 2025, precious metals gold and silver experienced a significant decline, mainly driven by multiple factors including:
1、 Profit taking and technical correction
In the early stage, the prices of gold and silver continued to rise and hit historical highs, accumulating a large number of profitable stocks in the market. When the price rises too quickly, investors, driven by the need to lock in profits, concentrate on profit taking operations, triggering a technical correction. For example, spot gold fell more than 6.3% on the same day, marking the largest daily decline since April 2013; Spot silver fell more than 8.7% at one point, the largest decline since 2021, and this extreme volatility is a direct reflection of the concentration and exit of profit taking.
2、 Geopolitical risk mitigation
The geopolitical hedging logic that previously drove the rise of precious metals has loosened. On the one hand, the news of the ceasefire agreement reached in the Israeli Palestinian conflict weakened market risk aversion; On the other hand, former US President Trump’s softening of trade attitudes has also reduced concerns about global trade frictions, greatly reducing the safe haven appeal of gold.
3、 Forced sell-off triggered by market liquidity crisis
The tight liquidity in the financial system has forced investors to sell high liquidity assets. Former economic advisor to the Federal Reserve in Dallas pointed out that the sharp drop in gold is a “distress signal” for a systemic “liquidity crisis” – some investors are forced to liquidate liquid assets such as gold due to receiving margin call notices or needing to quickly raise cash, which further exacerbates the price decline.
4、 The indirect impact of fluctuations in the US dollar index

Despite a slight decline in the US dollar index on that day, the changes in the Federal Reserve’s policy expectations in the earlier period have been fully reflected in prices. The market’s expectation of a Fed rate cut (such as a 25 basis point cut in October) has been overvalued, and when the policy is implemented, funds are transferred from the precious metal market to other assets, leading to insufficient buying of gold and silver.
5、 Position Structure and Changes in Market Sentiment
From the position data, it can be seen that gold and silver ETFs have continued to increase their holdings in the early stage, accumulating a large number of speculative long positions. When market sentiment shifts from optimism to caution, these crowded long positions are concentrated and liquidated, forming a situation of “buying more, killing more”, amplifying price declines.
In summary, the decline in precious metals this time is the result of the resonance of factors such as profit taking, geopolitical easing, liquidity pressure, and deteriorating position structure, and belongs to a stage adjustment after the previous rise.
Future forecast
In the future, the precious metal market will experience short-term fluctuations, medium-term differentiation, and long-term improvement. In the later stage, we will focus on changes in the Federal Reserve’s policy trends, geopolitical situation, and industrial demand data.