Price trend: first suppressed and then rose, with severe fluctuations within the month
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, nickel prices showed a “V-shaped” rebound in April. At the beginning of the month, nickel prices hit a bottom due to the impact of the US tariff policy towards China. On April 9th, spot electrolytic nickel fell to a four-year low of 120875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.22%. Subsequently, due to the disturbance of Indonesian policies and the recovery of macro sentiment, nickel prices stopped falling and rebounded. At the end of the month, nickel prices were 125033 yuan/ton, a monthly decline of 4.03%.
analysis of influencing factors
1. Macro emotions dominate short-term fluctuations
The impact of tariff game: At the beginning of the month, the United States announced the imposition of “equivalent tariffs” on Chinese goods, and China responded by imposing a 34% tariff on imported goods from the United States, triggering panic selling in the non-ferrous sector.
Policy expectation easing: Trump’s tariff easing statement coupled with the Fed’s dovish signal has led to a rebound in market risk appetite, but the rebound in nickel prices is weak due to weak fundamentals.
2. Supply pressure continues to suppress prices
Indonesian policy disturbance: Indonesia’s PNBP policy came into effect on April 26th, and the expected increase in nickel mining costs supports nickel prices, but the actual implementation strength remains to be observed.
The increase in imported ore is significant: the rainy season in the Philippines has basically ended, and the import volume of nickel ore in March increased by 34% month on month to 1.5352 million tons, easing the short-term supply shortage, but still slightly decreased by 0.45% year-on-year.
High inventory is difficult to digest: On April 28th, overseas LME nickel inventory was 201426 tons, an increase of 2706 tons during the month. The domestic inventory of Shanghai nickel is 24632 tons, although it has slightly decreased by 2114 tons, the global explicit inventory is still at a historical high.
New high production: In March, the domestic refined nickel production reached 36700 tons (+12% year-on-year), and it is expected to further increase production in April. The pattern of oversupply has not changed.
3. Insufficient resilience on the demand side
Stainless steel drag: The off-season of terminal consumption combined with export policy restrictions resulted in a 4.75% monthly drop in stainless steel prices, and weak demand for nickel from steel mills.
Electroplating alloy stability maintenance: Purchasing at low prices supports some essential needs, but it is difficult to offset the weakness in the stainless steel field.
The demand for new energy (ternary batteries) is expected to improve in the long term, but the short-term driving force is limited.
Outlook for the future: Bottom up under the oscillation of supply and demand game
Nickel continues to have an oversupply pattern, with prominent supply-demand contradictions and upward pressure on prices. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate within the range of 125000-130000 yuan/ton in May, and special attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesian policies, the progress of stainless steel destocking, and macro policy trends.

1、 Trend analysis
According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices first fell and then rose in April. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 80023.33 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price slightly fell to 78158.33 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 2.33% and a year-on-year decline of 2.31%.
According to the Business Society’s current chart, copper spot prices in April were mostly higher than futures prices, with the main contract being the expected price two months later, and the expected future price may be under pressure.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory fluctuated and decreased in April. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 203450 tons, a decrease of 4.61% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, the shift in Trump’s tariff policy has triggered a chain reaction in the market, and the easing of trade tensions has cooled the controversy over the independence of the Federal Reserve. However, the Beige Book warns that tariff uncertainty still threatens the regional economic outlook. The Markit data for April showed that the manufacturing PMI unexpectedly expanded (50.7), while the service and composite PMI were lower than expected but still in the expansion range, and the current macro uncertainty continues.
Supply side: The import volume of copper ore sand and concentrate in March was 2393926.47 tons, an increase of 9.67% month on month and 2.80% year-on-year. The import volume of scrap copper (copper scrap) in China in March 2025 was 189722.465 tons, a decrease of 1.87% month on month and 13.01% year-on-year. The import volume of refined copper in China in March 2025 was 354275.469 tons, an increase of 16.11% month on month and 11.80% year-on-year.
The Antamina copper zinc mine accident in Peru has raised supply concerns. As one of the world’s largest copper zinc mines, the mine produces over 400000 tons of copper annually, accounting for a significant proportion of China’s imported copper mines.
Downstream: Household air conditioning production in March increased by 16% year-on-year. State Grid’s power grid investment in the first quarter increased by 27.7% year-on-year. In March, passenger cars continued to show a good trend, with both production and sales increasing on a month on month basis, reaching 2.5745 million and 2.4682 million units respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 14.43% and 10.37%, respectively. In March, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to maintain rapid growth, with a month on month increase in market penetration rate, reaching 1.277 million and 1.237 million units respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 47.93%+ 40.11%.
According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, in the past five years, copper prices have mostly fallen in May.
In summary, the sudden major accident at Antamira, the largest copper mine in Peru, has led to a complete shutdown, coupled with the continuous decline of domestic concentrate TC to below -30 US dollars, increasing pressure on refineries to reduce production. The resilience of domestic demand still exists, and the peak season for power grid delivery and the trade in policy are driving demand for air conditioning and battery foil; The recent rebound in spot consumption has driven the continuous depletion of electrolytic copper inventory, but as the traditional peak season draws to a close, photovoltaic installation orders may decrease, coupled with uncertainty in tariff policies, and upward pressure on copper prices is gradually emerging.

1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market fluctuated within the range this week (4.21-25), and the price performance was weak. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4756 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.90% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
This week, PVC prices have mainly declined, with most manufacturers making price adjustments within the week, with a range of around 50 yuan/ton. The market generally followed the decline, and dealers reported a decrease in offers. The main reason is the lack of favorable fundamentals, with crude oil prices fluctuating at low levels and the futures market performing poorly. PVC spot goods are affected by it, and prices continue to be weak. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the spot PVC market has shown loose supply and demand, and most manufacturers’ equipment is operating stably. The supply pressure has not changed much, dealers’ offers are generally weak, downstream demand performance is insufficient, downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, inquiry and procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market atmosphere is sluggish. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4670-4800 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, this week (4.21-25), the calcium carbide market remained stable. According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the fluctuation range this week was 0. The price is still relatively low, with limited support for PVC.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the sluggish performance of the PVC spot market is mainly due to low downstream operating rates, insufficient demand, and difficulty in improving the supply-demand pattern in the short term. It is expected that PVC prices will continue to maintain a range adjustment pattern next week.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aggregated MDI market has recently stopped falling and risen. Currently, the mainstream price for Shanghai goods (44V20, M20S, 5005) is 14800-15000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price for domestic goods (PM200) is 15200-15800 yuan/ton. Boosted by news of major manufacturers’ lockdowns, sales restrictions, and maintenance plans, the supply side actively pushed up prices, downstream sentiment entered the market, and intermediaries bought inventory at low prices. The current high import costs and tight supply are expected to lead to a strong performance of the aggregated MDI market in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been weak and volatile recently (4.10-4.22). As of April 22, the spot rubber market in China was around 14350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.70% from 14598 yuan/ton on the 10th. The high point during the cycle was 14735 yuan/ton, and the low point was 14310 yuan/ton. Currently, influenced by international trade news, the atmosphere in the domestic rubber market is relatively weak. The price of raw materials has slightly decreased; Domestic Tianjiao Port inventory has slightly decreased compared to the previous period, but overall remains at a high level; The downstream construction is basically stable; The Shanghai rubber market is weak and volatile, while the natural rubber spot market is fluctuating and adjusting.
In the second quarter, the overseas main production areas are expected to gradually increase production volume, coupled with the current good weather and high price stimulation, rubber farmers are cutting rubber smoothly, and rubber prices are difficult to stabilize at high levels; At the same time, Yunnan Province in China has conducted trial cutting, and it is expected that the supply of rubber raw materials at home and abroad will increase, leading to a decrease in the price of natural rubber raw materials. As of April 22, the price of Thai glue was 56.20 baht/kg, slightly lower than the 57.50 baht/kg on April 10.
Natural rubber inventory has slightly decreased, but overall it remains at a high level. As of April 20, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 612500 tons, a decrease of 7000 tons or 1.08% compared to the previous period.
Supply and demand side: Downstream tire production is generally stable, but the international trade situation has an impact, resulting in a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the natural rubber market and light inquiries. As of April 20th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 7.8%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.5% of the load.
Market forecast: When domestic and international raw material prices fall from high levels, coupled with the unclear international trade situation and weak downstream inquiries, the support for natural rubber will weaken, and the inventory of Tianjiao Port will still be at a high level; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will continue its weak consolidation trend in the later stage.