According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 1st to 4th (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port quotations fell from 2253 yuan/ton to around 2271 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.81% during the period, a month on month decrease of 4.55%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.78%. The supply continues to increase, and the accumulation of enterprise inventory has led to price reductions and order taking. Although downstream profits have recovered, the improvement is not significant at the moment, and the domestic methanol market is weak and declining.
As of the close on September 5th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2601, opened at 2381 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2424 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2378 yuan/ton. It closed at 2415 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 35 yuan/ton or 1.47% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 684742 lots, the position is 777813, and the daily increase is -24180.
On the cost side, coal supply has rebounded, demand has fallen seasonally, terminal demand for replenishment has increased, and prices have fluctuated narrowly, providing limited support for methanol prices. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
On the demand side, glacial acetic acid: The acetic acid industry in Henan Province is operating at a low level. Formaldehyde: The capacity utilization rate of the formaldehyde industry in Henan Province remains at 51.44%, and the operating load remains stable. Dimethyl ether: The operating load of the dimethyl ether industry in Henan has decreased month on month. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the impact on methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, the overall recovery of the equipment exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of September 4th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 321.5-322.5 US dollars/ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 94-95 cents per gallon; The closing price of the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 292.5-293.5 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton.
In the future market forecast, multiple factors such as the adjustment of upstream and downstream purchase and sales rhythms, and fluctuations in freight rates will intertwine, leading to frequent fluctuations in methanol spot market prices. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly experience fluctuations and consolidation.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 12866 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 12933/ton, with a price increase of 0.52%.
The prices of domestic activated carbon manufacturers have risen this week, with the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9500 to 13000 yuan/ton. Currently, the market is in the field of environmental protection, and the demand for coconut shell activated carbon in traditional fields such as water treatment and air purification continues to grow, with a focus on market transactions.
From a supply side perspective, Southeast Asia, as the main source of coconut shells worldwide, will face multiple natural disasters in 2024. Thailand’s coconut production will decrease due to drought and pest infestations, while countries such as the Philippines and Indonesia will also be affected. This will reduce the supply of coconut shell raw materials, leading to a shortage of coconut shell carbonization materials. ‌‌
Prediction: Domestic market transactions are accelerating, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate with a strong trend in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 29th, the price of ethyl acetate was 5380.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.12% compared to the price of 5386.67 yuan/ton on August 25th, and a decrease of 1.22% from the beginning of the month. The utilization rate of supply capacity has decreased, market sentiment has risen, downstream demand follow-up is insufficient, and the rise of ethyl acetate is weak, resulting in a downward trend in the market.
The utilization rate of domestic ethyl acetate production capacity has declined, the increase in market inventory has decreased, and the mentality of enterprises is bullish. At the same time, the price of raw materials is relatively strong, and the cost support is favorable. As a result, the price of ethyl acetate is relatively strong and has been raised; In terms of demand, downstream enthusiasm is not high, and there is resistance to high prices. The shipment of ethyl ester in the market is limited, and the mentality of enterprises is weakened. The focus of ethyl acetate transactions is weakly lowered.
In the future, the capacity utilization rate of the ethyl acetate market is not high, and the inventory pressure of enterprises is still acceptable. The price of raw materials has risen, and under cost pressure, the price of ethyl acetate may increase. However, downstream inventory consumption is slow, the market fundamentals are weak, and the supply and demand game in the market is expected to be weak and volatile. Specific attention should be paid to changes in supplier equipment and downstream follow-up situations.

Recently (8.25-9.1), the domestic EVA market has seen a slight increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 1st, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11066 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.53% from 10900 yuan/ton on August 25th. On the one hand, the downstream demand support for EVA has improved, but on the other hand, there is still resistance from downstream suppliers to high priced goods, which limits the overall growth of the EVA market.
Recently (8.25-9.1), EVA production has increased to over 8.5%, and some pre maintenance equipment has restarted operation, leading to increased supply pressure in the EVA market. During the cycle, the price of raw material ethylene increased while the price of vinyl acetate slightly decreased, providing cost support for EVA. As of September 1st, the domestic price of ethylene in Sinopec East China was 7150 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.42% from 7050 yuan/ton on August 25th; As of September 1st, the market price of vinyl acetate in East China was 5200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.42% from 5275 on August 25th.
Recently, the demand for EVA has improved, and the support for short-term photovoltaic demand has increased. The foam end remains in high demand, but downstream consumers still have resistance to high priced goods. The trading side is cautious in holding goods and trading with the market, and the market is stable and continues to explore gains.
Market forecast: Overall, raw material prices have fluctuated, and there is still high supply pressure for EVA production. The downstream photovoltaic and foam industries are mainly supported by demand. With the arrival of the traditional peak season, it is expected that the EVA spot market will tentatively rise in the later period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province was downgraded this week (8.25-8.29), with an average market price of 17300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 17400 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.57%.
In the last week of this month, due to insufficient demand follow-up and weak performance in the raw material market, the magnesium market showed a narrow consolidation trend at the end of the month. Some factories have lowered prices slightly to win orders due to the need to recoup funds.
This week, under the dual influence of a slight weakening of the market situation and buyers’ mentality of “buying up instead of buying down”, downstream buyers are cautious and mainly focus on meeting rigid demand for procurement. Those users who are not in a hurry to restock temporarily choose to carefully observe market trends.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, the overall inventory level of magnesium smelting enterprises remains at a low level, which has not put significant pressure on their cash flow. Based on this background, coupled with the generally positive expectations and optimistic attitude of enterprises towards the upcoming market situation in September, they believe that market demand is expected to increase or there is upward space for prices. Therefore, these enterprises appear relatively firm in their sales strategies, and their willingness to actively reduce prices to promote sales is not strong.
In terms of demand, influenced by the mentality of “buying up instead of buying down”, downstream markets have adopted a certain wait-and-see attitude, resulting in a corresponding decrease in procurement volume.
Raw material end
The market price of coal has experienced a slight decrease, while the price of blue charcoal has remained relatively stable, and the price of ferrosilicon has also remained stable, resulting in a slight reduction in overall costs.
comprehensive analysis
From the analysis of supply and demand, the current market demand is weak and lacks strong demand as support, so it is expected that the momentum for the recovery of the magnesium market will be insufficient in the short term. However, given the overall low inventory of factory spot goods and the continued support of rigid demand for the magnesium market, it is relatively difficult for magnesium prices to further decline. The magnesium market may show a weak and stable consolidation trend next week.