price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market remained stable with small fluctuations in June, with some spot prices of certain brands experiencing narrow declines. As of June 30th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 14476.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.91% compared to early June.
cause analysis
On the supply side, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises increased in June. Enterprises have lowered their operating rates, and the industry’s operating rate has dropped to around 79%. The weekly average production has been narrowly reduced to 63000 tons, with limited production losses within the month and a lack of arrangements for future market downturns. In addition, PC inventory has remained high for a long time, and there is ample supply of goods on site. Manufacturers and midstream inventory levels remain high, with no reduction in shipping pressure, and there has been no improvement in the market supply side’s support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that bisphenol A rose and then fell back in June, and the magnitude was limited. The upstream crude oil market in the far end of the range fluctuated sharply after the rise, and the market had poor transmission effect on the direct raw materials acetone and phenol for PC. Meanwhile, there has been little change in demand for bisphenol A, and the market lacks further upward momentum. Overall, the rise in bisphenol A prices within the month followed by a pullback has provided moderate support for PC costs.
On the demand side: In June, with the gradual warming of the domestic climate, the downstream factories of PC experienced a decrease in load, and the main demand for stocking was weak, gradually entering the traditional off-season for consumption, further dragging down the PC consumption end. Due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site supply, the supply and demand contradiction has not improved throughout the month. Currently, terminal enterprises are cautious in purchasing new orders, and their trading performance continues to be dominated by contract delivery. Merchants tend to have a wait-and-see attitude, buyers are resistant to high priced goods, and the flow of goods in the market is slow. Overall, the demand side has weak support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
The domestic PC market experienced consolidation after a decline in June. The upward trend of upstream bisphenol A market is limited, and it has fallen slightly at the end of the month, which has limited support for the cost value of PC. The overall load of domestic PC aggregation plants has increased, while the pattern of strong supply remains unchanged. Downstream demand is at a low season level, and businesses are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. On the one hand, industry inventory remains high, and on the other hand, PC prices are low, with limited room for decline. Currently, the market is experiencing fluctuating positive news, and there is insufficient vitality in supply and demand. It is expected that the PC market will continue to focus on consolidation in the future.
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