Price trend: (8.1-8.7)
First up, then down: At the beginning of the week, there was a brief rally at the end of July, but downstream acceptance was low. Subsequently, supply pressure increased, and companies lowered prices to promote transactions.
Significant decline: According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 7th, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province was 2075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.36% during the week and a year-on-year decrease of 22.28%.
analysis of influencing factors
Supply side: The operating rate has rebounded, and inventory pressure has become apparent
Device dynamics: Enterprise production has rebounded, and the overall industry production has risen to around 80%, with loose supply.
Inventory pressure: Downstream procurement is weak, companies are reducing prices to reduce inventory, and some manufacturers are experiencing slightly slower inventory pressure.
Cost side: methanol drops, liquid chlorine rises, insufficient cost support
The inventory of methanol at the port is high, and the market fluctuated weakly during the week. As of August 7th, the benchmark price of methanol at Shengyi Society was 2383.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42% during the week.
Liquid chlorine: Supply in Shandong has tightened, downstream shipments have increased, and prices have slightly increased, but the impact on dichloromethane is limited.
On the demand side: seasonal suppression, with rigid procurement as the main focus
The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream refrigerant, pharmaceutical and other industries is average, with replenishment mainly based on demand, and no significant increase in volume has been observed. Due to factors such as high temperatures and power restrictions, the operating rate in some areas has slightly decreased, suppressing the release of demand.
Future prospects
Supply is relatively loose, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. If downstream demand recovers or exports increase, the market may rebound slightly. Attention should be paid to device dynamics, inventory changes, export order status, etc.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke continued to rise in July. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries was 2390 yuan/ton on July 31 and 2257.50 yuan/ton on July 1, with a monthly increase of 5.87%.
Cost wise: The crude oil market fluctuated and rose in July. In mid to early July, OPEC+released its annual world oil outlook and lowered its energy demand expectations, putting pressure on oil prices. In addition, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to increased sanctions against Russia by the United States. Starting from August 1st, the United States will impose a 30% tariff on most imported goods from the European Union and Mexico, causing fluctuations in the international crude oil market; In late July, the United States and the European Union reached a new trade agreement, and the United States may impose new sanctions on Russia. Additionally, concerns about US tariffs continue to weaken, and crude oil prices continue to rise.
Supply side: In mid to early July, the shipment of petroleum coke from local refineries was still acceptable, and downstream demand for carbon for aluminum remained stable. The stocking operation of negative electrode materials was active, and coupled with low inventory of petroleum coke in some refineries, it was favorable for the petroleum coke market, resulting in an overall increase in petroleum coke prices; In late July, the market for refined petroleum coke remained stable, with decent shipments from refineries. However, prices of petroleum coke from some refineries fluctuated significantly with indicators, with fluctuations in prices; The demand from downstream enterprises is relatively stable, and the benchmark price for purchasing pre baked anodes in August has dropped by 10 yuan/ton compared to July, indicating average enthusiasm for purchasing petroleum coke. In July, the transaction of petroleum coke at the port was average, with stable shipments and sufficient inventory at the port. Downstream enterprises maintained their essential procurement needs.
On the demand side, the domestic silicon metal (# 441) market experienced a broad upward trend in July. During the month, the market prices of metallic silicon (# 441) in many regions of China have continuously adjusted upwards, and the overall focus of market negotiations has continued to rebound. This is also the first consecutive downturn in the market since the beginning of the year. Silicon companies in the northern region have reduced production of equipment, while the southern region has entered a period of abundant water. The overall pace of resuming production is normal, and market supply is decreasing in the north and increasing in the south, resulting in an overall increase in supply and output. The demand for petroleum coke market in the silicon industry still exists.
The overall price of medium sulfur calcined coke rose in July, with the calcination market remaining stable in mid to early July. In late July, the cost of petroleum coke prices rose overall, with some manufacturers adjusting their prices.
Market forecast: There is still purchasing demand downstream of petroleum coke to support the petroleum coke market in August, but refinery operations have increased compared to July. In addition, with the recent arrival of imported petroleum coke at the port, the market supply is relatively sufficient, and it is expected that petroleum coke will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in August.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, in early August, the hydrogen peroxide market weakened and fluctuated downwards. On August 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 696 yuan/ton, and on August 4th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.96% in price.
Negative sentiment still persists, with a slight decline in the hydrogen peroxide market
At the beginning of August, the terminal demand in the printing and papermaking industry fell, and some manufacturers of hydrogen peroxide stopped for maintenance, easing the supply pressure. The long short game weakened the hydrogen peroxide market, and the average price in the domestic market fell to around 690 yuan/ton, with a price drop of about 10 yuan/ton. The market transactions are average, and the market is weak and declining.
The hydrogen peroxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in mid August, the demand for terminal printing and papermaking industry will weaken, and the pressure on hydrogen peroxide supply will still exist. The future market will continue to weaken.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP market fluctuated and fell in July, with some brand products experiencing price reductions. As of July 31st, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 7278.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.41% compared to the price level at the beginning of July.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
During July, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East shifted from tension to easing, and the announcement of OPEC+production plans put pressure on international oil prices. At present, the market’s concerns about the risk of crude oil supply interruption have eased, and price fluctuations and consolidation are the main focus. At the same time, the consumption of propane is sluggish, and it has followed the previous decline of crude oil. The current price position is not high, and the cost support for PDH manufacturing enterprises has fallen. In the early stage of propylene production and resumption of work, the market is under pressure and declining. Overall, the prices of PP raw materials in July provided weak support for costs.
Supply side:
In July, there was a mutual occurrence of maintenance and resumption of work in domestic PP enterprises, as well as the release of production capacity. Jingbo, Yanchang middling coal, Dalian Petrochemical, Tianjin Bohai Chemical and other enterprises have reduced the burden. On the other hand, the fourth line of Zhenhai and the fourth line of Yulong were put into operation, the load of Zhejiang Petrochemical, Quanzhou Guoheng and Jiutai Group was increased, and the drive of middling coal Mengda was near. Overall, the overall industry load level within the range fluctuates narrowly around 77%, with an average weekly total output of around 770000 tons. The supply of goods remains abundant, and the inventory level is gradually rising to over 810000 tons, with slow digestion. About 500000 tons of new production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year, severely limiting the long-term supply pattern. Overall, the improvement in support for spot prices from the PP supply side is very limited.
In terms of demand:
July is the traditional off-season for polypropylene consumption, and the demand for PP continues to be weak, resulting in a quiet trading atmosphere on the market. Merchants have hardly seen any advance stocking operations, and the on-site situation remains in a state of urgent need, with a focus on on-demand use. In terms of plastic weaving, the consumption level of terminal enterprises is particularly obvious in the off-season, and downstream PP enterprises in China are struggling to start production. Materials used in construction, agriculture and other fields are also at a low level and flat. On site new orders tend to be scattered small orders and contract deliveries, with flat liquidity of supply and slow release of PP demand. At present, the macro guidance is not clear, and in the pattern of weak exports and domestic demand, the demand side of PP has poor support for spot prices.
Future forecast
The domestic PP market prices fluctuated and fell in July. Fundamentally speaking, the overall strength of upstream raw materials is weak, and their overall support for PP is poor. The industry load is stable with small fluctuations, and there is an expectation of abundant supply in the future. Consumption is at a low season level. The contradiction between supply and demand and the decrease in cost value are combined, and the mentality of operators is bearish. It is expected that the PP market will continue to be stagnant in the short term.

Aluminum prices fluctuated horizontally in July
Aluminum prices fluctuated horizontally in July. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 31, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20596.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.91% from the market average price of 20786.67 yuan/ton on July 1.
Fundamental Overview
1、 Supply side: Limited incremental operation at high levels
The current operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is at a high level, and the industry operating rate is close to 97%. The room for further improvement is very limited. However, there is still a slight increase in weekly operating capacity, and the overall production remains at high load. There is no obvious sign of contraction in the short-term supply side. ​​
As the core raw material for electrolytic aluminum production, the pressure of oversupply of alumina is significant. Stimulated by the recovery of industry profits, alumina production capacity has been released to historical highs, domestic production is showing a trend of recovery, and total inventory is also continuously increasing. Although the alumina warehouse receipts are still at a low level in the short term, the problem of tight delivery capacity in Xinjiang is expected to be alleviated in August, which will suppress the speculative sentiment in recent months. In the long run, the trend of alumina accumulation is relatively clear. ​
2、 Demand side: off-season affects production and declines
At present, it is in the off-season of traditional consumption, and the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has declined. The overall pressure on aluminum production is low, and the willingness of downstream enterprises to take over at a high level is insufficient. ​
From the perspective of specific downstream industries, in the field of new energy vehicles, the retail sales of passenger cars in China increased by 15% year-on-year from July 1st to 27th, but decreased by 17% compared to the same period last month, indicating a weakening trend in demand compared to the previous month; In the field of photovoltaics, the overall output of photovoltaic modules in August showed limited month on month changes, and the driving force for aluminum demand was insufficient. Overall, downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and spot transactions of aluminum ingots are average, putting pressure on spot price markups. ​
3、 Inventory side: Short term rebound with relatively low year-on-year growth
At the beginning of the week, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 514000 tons, an increase of 20000 tons from last Thursday, showing a trend of accumulated inventory; The spot inventory of aluminum bars is 158500 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from last week, with relatively small fluctuations. Overall, although inventory has rebounded in the short term, it is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year, which has provided some support for aluminum prices.
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4、 Policy and market sentiment: intertwining multiple factors
Domestically, the policy statement did not exceed expectations, and the sentiment of “anti involution” has eased. The long-term tone of “promotion fees and stable growth” remains unchanged, and the support for market sentiment is limited. At the same time, the statement of “governing disorderly competition in accordance with the law” in the alumina industry has intensified short-term market fluctuations. ​​
On the overseas front, the Federal Reserve has remained inactive for five consecutive meetings, with two members supporting a rate cut. However, Powell did not provide clear guidance on the September rate cut, emphasizing the uncertainty of tariffs and inflation, and stating that the job market has not weakened and policy uncertainty still exists. However, the easing of tariffs between China and the United States and the IMF’s upward adjustment of growth expectations have boosted market optimism in the short term, but it is difficult to offset the suppression of domestic off-season demand. ​

5、 Price Expectations and Trading Strategies
In terms of spot aluminum ingot prices, they are supported by low inventory in the short term and maintain high volatility. The core fluctuation range can be focused on 20400-20900 yuan/ton; In the medium to long term, due to the suppression of demand during the off-season and the rebound of aluminum ingot inventory, it is expected that price fluctuations will be weak. However, due to the low year-on-year inventory, the space below is limited. ​​