As of July 24th, the price of 0 # zinc was 24657 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 1.09% compared to the zinc price of 24390 yuan/ton on July 20th.
fundamentals
The overall domestic zinc price shows a pattern of high volatility and a slight downward shift in the center of gravity. The price rises first and then falls during the week, and the long short game is intense.
Supply side: The shortage in the mining sector continues to deepen, and the expectation of reduced production in the smelting sector is heating up
The processing fee for zinc concentrate continues to break historical lows, and the average price of TC for domestic mines has been lowered to -500 yuan/ton in July. TC for overseas zinc mines also continues to decline at low levels; As a result, the domestic refined zinc production has declined in June 2026. According to institutional forecasts, the domestic refined zinc production in July was about 549500 tons, a decrease of 13000 tons compared to the previous month, and the production will further decline. At present, the smelting profit based on domestic ore as raw material and taking into account the by-product income is generally below the profit and loss line. With the continuous expansion of comprehensive smelting losses, the probability of expanding the scope of industry maintenance has significantly increased. However, there is still an expected month on month increase in the underground half of the year in Hunan, Henan and other regions, and the actual realization of subsequent concentrated production cuts still needs to be observed.
Demand side: Traditional consumption has significant off-season characteristics, and downstream customers are cautious in receiving goods
In July, it was the traditional off-season for zinc consumption in the zinc market, and downstream enterprises such as galvanizing and die-casting zinc alloys saw a marginal decline in operating rates. The overall inventory of galvanized sheet is at a high level; The operating rates of die-casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide are showing a downward trend. Downstream enterprises maintain low inventory operation, with weak willingness to replenish at low prices and a weak market transaction atmosphere. The spot market continues to show a discount situation, and the downstream acceptance of high prices is insufficient. However, there are signs of a rebound in demand for galvanized steel in infrastructure construction, and there has been an increase in bidding for power grids and transportation guardrails. Galvanized steel and infrastructure orders have provided some support to the demand side. Overall, the characteristic of the demand side being “not weak in the off-season” is not yet obvious, with rigid procurement as the main focus and concentrated stockpiling absent.
comprehensive analysis
Short term zinc prices are expected to continue the pattern of high volatility and range consolidation. The subsequent market evolution needs to focus on three major variables: whether the TC processing fee at the mining end can stop falling and stabilize; Zinc ingot inventory situation; On the eve of the traditional peak season of “Golden September and Silver October”, has the pace of downstream terminal replenishment started ahead of schedule. Under the two-way tug of war between mining support and off-season drag, zinc prices are difficult to break out of a unilateral trend in the short term, and range oscillation remains the main theme.
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