Trade name: cryolite

Latest price (December 7): 7275 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the average production price of cryolite in Henan increased by 1.04% compared with yesterday, and the market is running firmly. Cryolite manufacturers react to the shortage of raw materials and high production costs. The cryolite output of enterprises is less, the quotation is mainly high, and the downstream demand is OK. Enterprises negotiate shipment, and the upstream output supports the cryolite market to maintain a high operation.

Future forecast: cryolite market will remain stable in the short term.

Trade name: potassium chloride

Latest price (December 6): 3190.00 yuan / ton

On December 6, the ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable, which was the same as the quotation on December 3. The market price of 60% white potassium made in China is about 3700-3800 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of 57% powder of Qinghai small factory is about 2900-3000 yuan / ton, and the supply of goods is tight. The price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 4000-4100 yuan / ton. Border trade 62% Russian White potassium will not be quoted temporarily. The market of downstream potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate has increased slightly recently, and the enthusiasm for next procurement has been enhanced.

Recently, the price of domestic potassium chloride may rise slightly, and the quotation is about 3200 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitored by the business society, as of November 23, the average price of domestic rubber grade high-grade white carbon black was 6875.00 yuan / ton. This week, the white carbon black market mainly operated stably, and the white carbon black price was stable, medium and strong. At present, the market supply is normal, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the transaction atmosphere is general.

This week (10.30-11.3), the mainstream price of white carbon black is about 6870 yuan / ton. The price is mainly stable. Compared with the same period last week, there is no significant change in the price. The overall market supply and demand is balanced. It is mainly for contract customers. The negotiation atmosphere is flat, and the white carbon black market is stable and strong.

The upstream hydrochloric acid market fell, the upstream cost support weakened, the maintenance of hydrochloric acid enterprises increased, the supply decreased, the downstream demand weakened, the downstream procurement enthusiasm was general, and the overall market was weak.

On December 3, the chemical index was 1117 points, down 8 points from yesterday, down 20.21% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 86.79% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business agency white carbon black analysts believe that: in the short term, white carbon black will mainly run smoothly with limited fluctuation range. (to know more about the industry chain market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the commodity price).

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic POM market rose in early December, and the spot price rose. As of December 2, the average offer price of POM injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 20166.67 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 1.51% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream formaldehyde, the recent methanol market is at a low level. With the decline of coal price, the support of methanol cost is weakened, and some methanol units are restored, the supply side is abundant. The price focus of the domestic methanol market continued to fall, unable to support the formaldehyde market, and formaldehyde fell. At present, the downstream is generally affected by environmental protection control, and the price of formaldehyde in Shandong is expected to decline slightly.

Upstream formaldehyde continued to fall, and POM cost side support weakened. In terms of industry load, the recent domestic operating rate is affected by Yuntianhua maintenance, and the market supply is expected to be reduced. Moreover, the enterprise inventory is still low, the on-site supply remains tight, and the supply side is good for the spot price. Shenhuaning coal mc90 is quoted at a reference price of about 19600 yuan / ton, with cash withdrawal. The reference price of Tianye Chemical is about 20000 yuan / ton. The ex factory reference price of Yuntianhua M90 is about 20900 yuan / ton, which is subject to firm negotiation. I’ve heard that there is resistance to traders’ shipment and there is a certain order transfer operation.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic POM market rose this week, the upstream formaldehyde market continued to decline, and the cost support of POM was weak. The on-site supply is expected to shrink again, but the spot price affects the procurement operation of downstream enterprises. At present, the trading tends to take small orders. The terminal enterprises just need to maintain production, the market atmosphere is relatively light, and there is a certain pressure on the spot price. It is expected that the rise of POM market may be hindered in the short term.

This month, the domestic market price of butyl acetate continued to decline, mainly affected by the weak cost and weak demand caused by the decline of upstream acetic acid. According to the monitoring of business society, butyl acetate fell by 14.7% in the month. At the end of the month, the domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate was 10400-10600 yuan / ton. At present, butyl acetate has entered the process of continuous bottom exploration.

First of all, in terms of the upstream acetic acid market, the acetic acid price continued to rise in the first half of the month, mainly due to the tightening of supply, the extension and load reduction in Shaanxi, the shutdown and maintenance of Jiangsu Thorpe, the gradual easing of the industry inventory pressure, and the upward shift of the focus of acetic acid trading. The price of acetic acid began to decline in the middle and late part of the year. Although the Jiangsu Thorpe plant was shut down, there was a large amount of inventory accumulated in the early stage, the market entered the de inventory cycle, and some downstream entered the off-season in winter. The purchase of raw materials was mainly rational, and most of the contracts and Inventory were digested.

In addition, in terms of upstream n-butanol, according to the monitoring of business society, n-butanol also fluctuated lower in November, with a decrease of 11.0%. The transaction performance of n-butanol market in Shandong is relatively light, the downstream plants are generally started, and the demand is mainly to maintain the rigid demand. The cost decline caused by the decline of acetic acid and n-butanol continued to be bad for butyl acetate.

In terms of supply and demand, the operating rate of major manufacturers is high this month, and the market supply is sufficient. Under the pressure of inventory, the prices of major manufacturers fell again and again, with a cumulative decline of more than 1000 yuan in the whole month. The manufacturer’s shipment speed is weak, and the price support psychology is weakened, which has a significant impact on the market. In addition, traders are not active in taking goods, and downstream factories on the demand side are only limited to just need to buy. Market trading is not active, demand follow-up is insufficient, and the market has not substantially improved.

Future forecast: in the short term, the cost side may still be not good, and the supply side is also relatively sufficient. Although the load of enterprises is reduced in the latter ten days, the social inventory is still high due to weak demand, and it is still in the stock removal stage in the later stage. It is expected that the recent ethyl acetate Market is still weak.