This month (6.1-6.29), the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fluctuated and fell at a high level. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 430170 yuan/ton, and as of June 29, the average market price was 388650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.65%.
Macroscopic perspective
The macro tone in June tends to be bearish. At the FOMC meeting, interest rates remained unchanged but the wording of the statement turned hawkish. The dot matrix showed that half of the committee members supported at least one interest rate hike within the year. The core PCE forecast for 2026 was raised to 3.3%, and the US dollar index fluctuated and strengthened, putting overall pressure on basic metals. In late June, technology stocks in the US stock market suffered heavy losses, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeting nearly 10% in a single week. Tin, as a product highly correlated with semiconductor prosperity, suffered a double impact on market sentiment.
news flow
The progress of resuming production in the Wa State of Myanmar continues to be lower than expected, with a road repair rate of about 70% and monthly production restored to 40% -50% before the mining ban; Indonesia’s tin ingot exports from January to April decreased by about 15% year-on-year; The ongoing conflict in the mining areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo continues to disrupt. This month’s hot topic defines tin as a ‘computing power metal’, but the two consecutive days of decline in the latter half of the month indicate that the bullish supply has been fully priced, and the market focus has shifted to the macro and demand sides.
fundamentals
There is a significant differentiation on the inventory side. On June 12th, the inventory of tin in the previous period surged by 4064 tons to 12358 tons (a weekly increase of nearly 50%), and fell back to 9286 tons in the latter half of the week; LME tin inventory is about 8775 tons, maintaining a relatively low level – both domestic accumulation and overseas destocking coexist. On the demand side, June is the traditional off-season for consumption, and the operating rate of solder enterprises is about 74%. The downstream willingness to receive goods above 400000 yuan/ton is sluggish. Although the demand for AI servers constitutes medium to long term support, the monthly increase in consumption is not enough to fully offset the decrease in traditional demand during the off-season.
comprehensive analysis
Short term Q3 forecast: Macro disturbances (Federal Reserve policy expectations) and supply support (slow resumption of production in Myanmar, restricted exports in Indonesia) enter a stalemate phase. The off-season characteristics on the demand side continue, and there is limited room for repairing the operating rate. The expected core oscillation range is 385000 to 445000 yuan/ton, and any upward breakthrough requires a macro shift or supply side contraction beyond expectations.
The global tin ore supply elasticity is insufficient, and emerging demands such as AI computing power, advanced packaging, and photovoltaic ribbon continue to expand. The tight balance pattern provides bottom support for prices. The supply bottleneck remains unresolved, and the long-term upward trend of the tin price center has not changed.
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