Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market weakened in the first week of August, and the spot prices of some brands decreased. As of August 6, the average price of the mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 17700 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.56% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and a year-on-year increase of 38.82%.

Factor analysis:

In terms of raw material styrene, the domestic spot price has decreased greatly recently. Previously, the far-end cost was dominated by the finishing and operation of crude oil chemical chain, and the cost of styrene was generally supported. In the short term, the industry is expected to increase supply. At the same time, due to cost pressure, the industry load has slightly callback this week. Recently, the direct upstream ethylene and pure benzene have fallen in price, and the cost side of styrene is bearish. In terms of demand, the main terminals followed up slowly, and the inventory of some ports increased. Multiple bad news led to the decline of styrene price at the beginning of the month. It is expected that styrene may fall more or rise less in the near future.

Upstream butadiene: due to the overall increase in the butadiene market in the early stage, the domestic spot price was corrected at a high level in the first week of August. The inquiry intention of terminal enterprises continues to weaken, and the focus of spot price continues to decline. In addition, the recent resumption and production of the industry coexist, and the supply side performance is empty. Although the external market is strong, it has not yet reached the export window price. In addition, the rebound of public health events has also caused some circulation resistance and increased supply pressure. Butadiene market is expected to continue its weak trend.

Most of the upstream market weakened, and the cost side support of ABS was weakened. In terms of supply, the low resumption of work last month still increased the on-site supply, and the inventory of finished products still showed an upward trend recently. In addition, the market demand follow-up is insufficient. Although the profitability of the industrial chain tends to be concentrated in ABS, the cost pressure exists at the same time. With the increase of shipment resistance, the spot price fell locally.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS weakened in early August, the upstream trend was poor, and the support for ABS cost was weakened. The supply side support is gradually weakened due to the overall high load of the industry. At present, the demand of terminal enterprises is general. Under the stalemate of on-site offer, local prices have fallen secretly, and the mentality of operators has changed to cautious wait-and-see. The actual trading has decreased, and it is expected that the recent ABS spot market may be deadlocked.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of August 4, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 15066.67 yuan / ton, up 32.94% compared with July 1, 4.39% compared with July 31 and 112.71% compared with the same period last year.

In July, the acrylic acid market rose steadily, with a monthly increase of 27.35%. In July, the acrylic acid market was tight and the price rose, the export inquiry increased significantly, the export orders of mainstream enterprises were delivered in an orderly manner, the industry inventory was low, and some enterprises shut down for maintenance, the market supply was tight, the just need support was obvious, and the market was driven by a strong atmosphere. Affected by the typhoon at the end of the month, the supply of factories in some areas was limited, the market supply and demand was tight and balanced, and the price focus gradually rose. In August, some factories were overhauled one after another, the overall market supply was tight, the transaction atmosphere was acceptable, and the price continued to rise.

Upstream propylene, according to the bulk list data of business society, as of August 3, the reference price of propylene was 7845.82, up 0.27% compared with August 1 (7824.91). The market trading was stable and the price was mainly stable.

According to the acrylic acid analysts of business society, generally speaking, at present, the stable price of raw material propylene is the main factor, and the cost impact is limited. The continuous tight spot supply is still the main factor supporting the market. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may operate strongly in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news

The epidemic situation in many parts of the world rebounded, demand concerns increased, and international oil prices fell sharply. According to the data of business agency, as of August 3, the price of MTBE was 5650 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 10.08% and a year-on-year increase of 50.00%.

MTBE market continued to decline steadily, with a decline of 50-80 yuan / ton. The international oil price fell sharply, the market mentality was bad, and the gasoline market fell by 30-50 yuan / ton, and the demand for raw materials became more and more light.

In terms of external market, as of the closing on August 2, the closing price of Asian MTBE market was reduced by US $7 / T compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at US $772-774 / T. The closing price of European MTBE market decreased by US $16.75/t compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at US $883.25-883.75/t. The closing price of MTBE market in the United States decreased by US $27.48/t compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf FOB closed at US $813.48-813.84/t (229.15-229.25 cents / gallon).

region ., Country, closing price, up and down

Asia FOB Singapore USD 772-774 / ton – USD 7 / ton

U.S.A FOB Bay 813.48-813.84 USD / ton – USD 27.48/t

Europe FOB ARA 83.25-883.75 USD / ton – USD 16.75/t

In terms of enterprises, some major production enterprises in Shandong have adjusted their prices by about 50-100 yuan / ton today,

The recent trend of crude oil and gasoline is sluggish, the demand is weak, and the sales pressure of MTBE merchants increases. Business agency MTBE analysts believe that the domestic MTBE market may still decline in the short term.

Most London Metals fell, and Lun lead rose 0.57% boosted by the decline in inventory. Most domestic metal markets were green at night, and Shanghai lead rose 1.17% driven by Lun lead. Shanghai lead continued its upward trend in the morning. As of the closing on August 2, the settlement price of the main contract of Shanghai lead 2109 was 16070 yuan / ton, up 1.04%.

Boosted by the futures market, the quotation range of 1# lead ingots in the domestic spot lead market is about 15700-15800 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15750 yuan / ton, an increase of 150 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. Prices rose back, there were few market inquiries in the downstream, the overall purchase intention was still low, and the downstream remained mainly on the sidelines. Overall, the downstream is gradually entering the peak season, but the market demand expectation is still soft, and the demand side is afraid that the peak season will not be prosperous in the future. At present, the domestic lead inventory is still on the high side, and the downstream just needs to purchase as a whole. In the future, the business community believes that the lead price will remain volatile in the short term.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of domestic local refiners continued to rise this week. The average market price in Shandong was 2435.75 yuan / ton on July 31, up 2.42% from 2378.25 yuan / ton on July 26.

On July 31, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 189.45, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 183.23% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016（ Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the maintenance of refineries increased, the supply of petroleum coke decreased, the inventory was low, and the local coking price rose well.

Upstream: international crude oil prices rose, US crude oil inventories fell more than expected, and tight supply boosted oil prices. Data show that US crude oil supply hit the lowest level since January 2020, and oil prices further increased.

Downstream: the price of upstream petroleum coke continues to rise, and carbon enterprises continue to operate under pressure under the cost pressure of carbon enterprises; The price of calcined coke rose; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum rose. As of July 31, the price was 19856.67 yuan / ton; The short-term tight supply situation is difficult to alleviate, but the willingness to receive goods at high prices in the downstream is not strong, and the market price of metal silicon rose slightly.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there are 10 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 30th week of 2021 (7.26-7.30), including 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (8.05%), coking coal (6.22%) and petroleum coke (2.42%). There were three commodities with month on month decline, and the top three products were fuel oil (- 0.52%), gasoline (- 0.49%) and naphtha (- 0.28%). The average rise and fall this week was 1.45%.

According to the petroleum coke analysts of business society, the local refineries have been overhauled one after another recently, the local petroleum coke supply is tight, the inventory is low, the electrolytic aluminum market performs well, and the carbon enterprises are under pressure. It is expected that the petroleum coke will remain stable in the near future.