1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of baking soda has been mainly stable in the near future. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average price in the domestic market is 1616.67 yuan / ton. On April 15, the commodity index of baking soda was 107.30, flat with yesterday, down 11.82% from 121.68 (2020-10-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 21.56% from 88.27, the lowest point on December 22, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business community, the price of sodium bicarbonate is running at a high level, and the shipment in the downstream market is fair. At present, the price of sodium bicarbonate in Henan is about 1550-1700 yuan, which is the mainstream quotation in the market. The downstream demand is acceptable. It is expected that the price will be slightly consolidated in the near future. The price of baking soda in Hebei is about 1550-1650 yuan / ton, which is the mainstream price in the market, and the downstream demand is acceptable.

In terms of raw materials: according to the monitoring data of the business community, soda ash in East China has been running steadily and dynamically, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1700-1850 yuan / ton. The main market price of light soda is about 1750-1850 yuan / ton. The main market price of light soda is about 1650-1750 yuan / ton, and the price of downstream glass may play a leading role in soda. Generally speaking, the price of short-term soda is mainly consolidated. The total amount of soda ash inventory is large, but there is still uneven distribution. Some data show that the overall inventory of domestic soda ash is about 870000 tons, and now most of the orders are executed in the early stage.

Demand side: downstream medicine, textile and food mainly purchase sodium bicarbonate on demand, and the price of sodium bicarbonate has been consolidated recently. Analysts of business news agency believe that: in the near future, the overall situation of raw material soda ash is stable with small movements, mainly with narrow fluctuation. The price of downstream glass market rises or drives the demand for soda ash, but the short-term soda ash market is still in consolidation operation. Generally speaking, the price of sodium bicarbonate still maintains consolidation trend in the short term, and the specific situation is the demand of downstream market.

1、 Price trend

Isopropanol prices rose this week, according to commodity data monitoring. The average price of isopropanol in China was 8800 yuan / ton last Friday and 9033.33 yuan / ton this Friday. The price rose by 2.65% in the week.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: price trend comparison of acetone and isopropanol from February to April

Isopropanol prices rose this week. Internationally, isopropanol in the United States closed stable on April 13, while isopropanol market in Europe closed stable. In terms of raw materials, the prices of propylene and acetone have risen, and the cost side has strong support. Isopropanol factory inventory is low, prices rise. Traders were more cautious in taking the goods. They were more wait-and-see in the market. Downstream customers mainly purchased on demand, and isopropanol market was higher. Up to now, the negotiation range of isopropanol in Shandong Province is about 8700-9200 yuan / ton, and that of isopropanol in Jiangsu Province is about 9100-9200 yuan / ton. The negotiation range of isopropanol in Zhejiang is around 9100 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market has been pushed up. The mainstream quotation of manufacturers is about 8300-8450 yuan / ton. The stock in Hong Kong has declined rapidly. The dealers have a positive attitude and the offer has gone up. In particular, the large dealers are in a high mood to support the price. The downstream factories are replenishing the products one after another. The atmosphere of market negotiation is good.

In terms of raw material propylene, the mainstream quotation of manufacturers is between 8300-8400 yuan / ton. U.S. propylene on April 1, down on the domestic market may have a certain impact. Propylene prices in Asia have risen slightly recently, which has little impact on the propylene market. Propylene market is now no pressure inventory, part of the device is still in repair. It is expected that the market will continue to move upward.

3、 Future forecast

Isopropanol analyst of chemical branch of business society thinks: at present, foreign export orders are relatively stable. Due to the rising market prices of propylene and acetone, the cost of isopropanol is under pressure, so the price of isopropanol is increased. From the perspective of sorting out, traders mainly wait and see, while downstream enterprises are more cautious in buying. It is expected that the market price of isopropanol will be stable temporarily in the short term.

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of melamine products)

2、 Market analysis

Melamine market rose steadily in the first half of April. According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, as of April 15, the average price quoted by melamine enterprises was 10050 yuan / ton, up 7.1% compared with April 1, 24.07% compared with March 15, 38.3% compared with January 1, and 95.78% compared with the same period last year.

At the beginning of April, the melamine market was mainly stable. Most of the manufacturers carried out the orders received in advance, and there was no pressure to move the goods. On the 6th, the quotation of enterprises rose. After the focus of market negotiation moved up, the price of melamine was stable and stable. Since the 9th, the price of melamine rose steadily. Some enterprises mainly export, and domestic trade mainly demand rigid demand. As the price of melamine rose to a high level, the pressure of downstream cost increased, which is very important to the market However, due to the support of more orders to be issued, the spot supply is tight, and the factory’s offer mentality is strong. The market is pushed up and stabilized after the low-end price of the market makes up.

Upstream urea, April 15, Shandong urea market temporarily stable. Demand side: agricultural demand is mainly sporadic procurement; downstream compound fertilizer, plastic plate plant start load increased slightly, most go with the market. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 80%, with a slight increase, and the daily output is about 160000 tons. The start-up load of urea enterprises is increased and the supply side is sufficient.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, on April 14, 2021, there were 20 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which 2 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities increased were epichlorohydrin (7.11%), butanone (6.12%) and styrene (2.47%). There were 11 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and the top three products were ethanol (- 1.81%), polymerized MDI (- 1.74%) and 1,4-butanediol (- 1.09%). The average daily rise or fall was 0.22%.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts of business news agency believe that at present, there are more orders waiting to be issued to support the market, enterprises have no pressure to take goods, and the spot supply is tight. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic melamine market may be strong, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the downstream purchasing mentality.

Trade name: isopropanol

Latest price (March 24): 8983.33 yuan / ton

Analysis points: on April 14, the market focus of isopropanol rose. The market price of raw propylene rose, the price of acetone was high, the cost support was strong, the factory inventory was low, and the price rose slightly. Traders were more cautious in taking the goods. They were more wait-and-see in the market. Downstream customers mainly purchased on demand, and isopropanol market was higher. At present, the negotiation range of isopropanol in Shandong is about 8600-9100 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is about 9100-9150 yuan / ton. Zhejiang isopropanol negotiation range is around 9000 yuan / ton. Isopropanol analysts of business news agency believe that isopropanol cost support is strong, factory inventory is low, pushing up obviously, but the downstream wait-and-see mood is obvious, mainly purchasing on demand, and isopropanol is expected to be high in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the recent external price of ethylene fluctuated and consolidated. On April 9, the price was 1143.50 US dollars / ton, and on April 12, the average price of ethylene was 1143.00 US dollars / ton, down 0.04%. The current price fell 4.51% month on month, and the current price rose 155.70% year on year.

In the near future, the overall external ethylene market showed a shock consolidation trend. The price of ethylene market in Asia was stable. As of the 9th, CFR closed at US $1068-1074 / T in Northeast Asia and US $1013-1019 / T in Southeast Asia. The price of ethylene market in Europe fluctuated and fell. As of the 9th, FD closed at US $1249-1260 / T in northwest Europe and CIF closed at US $1224-1235 / T in northwest Europe. The price of ethylene in the United States is stable. As of the 9th, the price is 1096-1107 US dollars / ton. Recently, the market of ethylene in Europe, America and Asia is relatively stable, showing a small fluctuation trend. Generally speaking, the external market of ethylene is cold and the market is volatile.

International: on April 9, international oil prices closed down slightly, with the settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market at US $59.32/barrel, down by US $0.28 or 0.5%. Brent crude oil futures market settlement price of the main contract at 62.95 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 0.25 U.S. dollars or 0.4%. Oil prices closed lower on Friday, down about 2% this week, mainly because increased production and renewed blockades by some countries overshadowed optimistic forecasts for the recovery of fuel demand.

Recently, the Styrene Market in Shandong has been declining. Port inventory is declining, new capacity is offset by equipment maintenance, domestic supply increment is limited, and the spot is tight, which can support the high price of styrene. However, the downstream has a resistance to high price styrene. Although the operating rate of the downstream rises collectively, the terminal is still in a wait-and-see state, and the purchase is just needed, and the transaction is sluggish.

Ethylene analysts of business society chemical branch think: at present, in terms of crude oil, OPEC and its production reduction allies are gradually increasing crude oil production, crude oil demand is not optimistic, showing a downward trend, and the cost is difficult to support the ethylene market, so business society data analysts predict that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall next.