According to the monitoring data of the business agency, since new year’s day, the terminal manufacturers have been parking for maintenance, and the demand has declined. The hydrogen peroxide market has opened a downward channel, and the price has dropped by a thousand miles. From January to the Spring Festival, the market price of hydrogen peroxide is 1430 yuan / ton in early January, and 1093 yuan / ton on February 20, with an overall price drop of 23.54%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from December 2020 to February 14, 2021, it can be seen that the price of hydrogen peroxide rises steadily every week in December, with an increase of 1% – 2%, and the highest weekly increase is close to 3%. Since January, terminal demand has been weakening, and hydrogen peroxide has been falling continuously, with a weekly decline of about one point. The hydrogen peroxide market has fallen sharply towards the end of the month, and the hydrogen peroxide price has dropped by 9.79% in January. In February, before the Spring Festival, hydrogen peroxide still dropped. After the Spring Festival, the price of hydrogen peroxide continued to decline. As of February 20, the price of hydrogen peroxide had dropped by more than 23% compared with the beginning of January.

Consumption off-season coming, hydrogen peroxide still weak decline after the festival

After the new year’s day, with the coming of the Spring Festival, the terminal paper industry and caprolactam manufacturers have stopped for maintenance in succession. Coupled with the Limited Logistics in Hebei and environmental protection factors, hydrogen peroxide has entered the traditional off-season consumption, the terminal demand has shrunk sharply, and the price has been falling all the way. The mainstream quotation fell below 1200 yuan / ton from 1400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, down more than 9%, and went straight to 10%.

Since February, the demand of terminal paper industry and caprolactam has declined, and hydrogen peroxide has started a sharp decline mode. On the eve of the Spring Festival, hydrogen peroxide dropped by more than 11%. During the Spring Festival, the hydrogen peroxide manufacturers operate normally, and the supply is loose. After the festival, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers continued to reduce the ex factory price, and the price continued to fall. By the 20th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market had dropped to 1093 yuan / ton, 12.88% lower than that in early February.

Mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in various regions of China

On February 20, the mainstream quotation of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui was about 1130 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of February; the mainstream quotation of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong was 1000 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of February. The mainstream quotation of hydrogen peroxide in Hunan is 1200 yuan / ton, down 350 yuan / ton from the beginning of February.

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business news agency, thinks: the printing paper industry of hydrogen peroxide terminal has entered the traditional consumption off-season, and the hydrogen peroxide price is still weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide

(Figure: p-value curve of propylene oxide product source: business community commodity analysis system)

2、 Market analysis

On February 19, the market price of propylene oxide rose. According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of February 19, the average quotation price of propylene oxide enterprises was 17300 yuan / ton, up 0.78% compared with the previous trading day, and down 8.30% compared with January 19.

After the festival, the market price of propylene oxide continued to rise. In terms of raw materials, the price of propylene rose, and the cost support rose. In terms of supply, factories generally had low inventory, new orders were smooth, and the price of downstream polyether rose. The overall market atmosphere was good, and the negotiation center of propylene oxide market was higher. At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 17000-17100 yuan / ton.

Upstream propylene, February 18, Shandong propylene market prices rose significantly. According to the price chart of the business club, the price of propylene declined all the way at the end of January, rose slightly at the end of the month, and then began to stabilize. On the 8th, the price of enterprises generally dropped by 50 yuan / ton, and then entered the Spring Festival holiday. Most of them remained stable in the first half of the year, while the price rose steadily in the second half of the year (from February 15). Today is the first day of official work, the price rose by about 200 yuan / ton, and the current market transaction is 7300 ~ 7550 yuan/ The mainstream price rose to about 7300 yuan / ton.

Downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of the business community, as of February 18, the factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 13166.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price before the festival (February 10); downstream soft foam polyether, on February 18, the market offer of soft foam polyether in Shandong rose, the price of raw material propylene oxide rose, the cost support was strengthened, the mentality of the industry was boosted, and the market inquiry and gas buying were increased .

3、 Future forecast

According to the propylene oxide analysts of business news agency, at present, the price of propylene is rising, the factory inventory is under no pressure, and the downstream follow-up is steady. It is expected that the propylene oxide market may be strong in the short term, and the specific trend still needs to pay attention to the market information guidance.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of February 18, the average quoted price of silicone DMC in the mainstream area of data monitoring was 21666 yuan / ton, which was 133 yuan / ton higher than that before the Spring Festival (21533 yuan / ton on February 10), or 0.62%; and 566 yuan / ton higher than that on February 1, 2021 (21100 yuan / ton), or 2.69% .

On the eve of the Spring Festival and in early February, the domestic silicone DMC market has begun to rise steadily. The factory’s pre orders are in good condition before the festival, and the confidence of the industry has increased. Since early February, the market has gradually warmed up under the leadership of Shandong’s leading enterprises. Until before the Spring Festival, on the 10th, the mainstream reference quotation of silicone DMC was around 21300-21800 yuan / ton, and the individual high-end quotation was 22000 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the logistics industry stopped operation one after another, and the market also entered a stable period.

Expected to be better after the festival

After the festival, supported by the good demand performance before the festival, the inventory pressure of the factory after the festival was small, the confidence of the industry was maintained, and the sunny atmosphere was good. On the 18th, Shandong big factory made a good start. On the first day of construction, it took the lead in increasing the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC by 200-300 yuan / ton. On the 18th, the mainstream reference quotation of silicone DMC in China was around 21500-22000 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream of silicone DMC has gradually resumed work and production, and the upstream and downstream transmission has remained normal. After the festival, replenishment will be carried out one after another, and the overall market is expected to be better.

After the festival, silicone DMC will continue to rise

Considering the current market situation, the downstream demand of silicone DMC is much better than that at this time last year. In addition, after the climate warms up, the terminal is gradually resumed, and the supply and demand transmission is relatively smooth. Under this situation, the industry is full of confidence. The silicone DMC analysts of the business community believe that silicone DMC will continue to rise steadily after the festival.

Crude oil and gasoline prices rose, but during the Spring Festival, gasoline demand was expected to be poor, MTBE market shipment was hindered, and the domestic MTBE market price rise was less than that of crude oil and gasoline. According to the data of business news agency, the price of MTBE on February 5 was 4700 yuan / ton, up 2.92% from the beginning of the week.

On the one hand, the extremely cold weather caused by the blizzard attack in the southeast of the United States has led to a rapid rise in fuel heating demand. Moreover, recently, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) have continued to effectively promote production reduction, which has brought a good supply side environment to oil prices. Moreover, the sharp decline in US commercial crude oil inventories in the past two weeks has become a direct driver to stimulate the rise of oil prices. International crude oil prices rose sharply this week, with WTI crude oil up 8.91% and Brent crude oil up 7.81%. In terms of gasoline, the weather is getting warmer, and local governments are advocating local Chinese New Year holidays. The terminal demand for gasoline is lower than that of the same period. Recently, the international crude oil price has risen sharply, which has promoted the enthusiasm of downstream customers to prepare goods and pushed up the price of gasoline.

The recent sharp rise in international oil prices has promoted the increase of downstream stock preparation intention before the festival, increased the purchasing enthusiasm of MTBE and other raw materials, smooth delivery of MTBE manufacturers, and actively promoted the rise of low inventory. At present, the price of MTBE is at a high level, and the price of MTBE continues to rise less than that of crude oil and gasoline.

MTBE product analyst of business society energy branch thinks: after the international crude oil price rises sharply, it is likely to maintain a high level, and it is less likely to continue to explore the high level. The gasoline market demand is less than expected, and the gasoline price is mainly stable. It is expected that the MTBE market price will be stable.

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the external price of ethylene has risen recently. On February 5, the price was 969.00 US dollars / ton, and on February 8, the average price of ethylene was 970.75 US dollars / ton, up 0.18%. The current price has dropped 10.18% month on month, and the current price has increased 15.02% year on year.

In the near future, the overall external ethylene market is on the rise. The price of ethylene market in Asia was stable. As of the 5th, CFR closed at US $847-855 / T in Northeast Asia and US $827-835 / T in Southeast Asia. The price of ethylene market in Europe increased greatly. As of the 5th, FD in northwest Europe closed at US $1094-1105 / T, CIF in northwest Europe closed at US $1097-1106 / T. The price of ethylene in the U.S. rose to 760-772 US dollars / ton by the 5th. Recently, the market of ethylene in Europe, America and Asia showed a rising trend. Generally speaking, the demand of the whole ethylene market improved, the market trading atmosphere was warm, and the market rose.

International: on February 5, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $56.85/barrel, up US $0.62. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the settlement price of the main contract at 59.34 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 0.50 U.S. dollars. Crude oil futures continued to rise on Friday, with Brent oil prices approaching the $60 mark, mainly due to the warming of economic recovery expectations and the continued effective implementation of production control by the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +).

Recently, the styrene market rose as a whole. Crude oil continued to strengthen, driving the price of pure benzene to rise, styrene cost support to strengthen, night futures high consolidation, to bring some support to the spot market. In terms of port inventory, the styrene inventory of East China’s main port this week was 109000 tons, an increase of 5500 tons over last week, a month on month increase of 5.3%, and a year-on-year decrease of 51.8%. At present, the main ports in East China are experiencing seasonal accumulation, with 30800 tons of goods arriving next week. The overall arrival volume is at a low level, and the accumulation is less than expected. However, the overall operating rate of domestic styrene is relatively high, which is maintained at 80% – 85%, and the site supply is good. On the downstream side, the start-up of the three major downstream industries is still at a high level, which is conducive to the consumption of styrene in China. Although the start-up of EPS and PS will be significantly reduced near the Spring Festival, the impact of the domestic epidemic this year is relatively small, and the overall profit of the downstream industry is in an advantage. After the year, the downstream plants will start as scheduled, and the demand will recover from the expectation of rapid recovery. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, the whole country advocates celebrating the Chinese new year on the spot, and some factories are expected to start work ahead of schedule. Based on the cost boost and low inventory support, it is expected that the market will be stronger in the short term and consolidation may be greater.

Ethylene analysts of business society chemical branch think: at present, in terms of crude oil, the supply of oil market is tightening, the international oil price is rising, and the cost support is strong, so the data analysts of business society expect that the external price of ethylene will mainly rise next.