In recent years, the price of domestic light rare earth market has continued to rise, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide and praseodymium neodymium alloy has continued to rise, and the market of light rare earth has recovered. According to the rare earth sector index of business association, on June 9, the rare earth index was 340 points, up 5 points from yesterday, down 66.00% from 1000 points (2011-12-06), the highest point in the cycle, and up 25.46% from 271, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

As of June 9, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide in rare earth in China was 284500 yuan / ton, with an increase of 4.98% in June; the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 357500 yuan / ton, with an increase of 5.61% in June, and the prices of neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, praseodymium oxide and metal praseodymium rose to varying degrees.

In recent years, the demand of domestic rare earth industry has improved, and the on-site goods holding merchants are bullish. The merchants are reluctant to sell, and the on-site rising sentiment is strong. In addition, with the economic recovery in Europe and the United States, the demand of permanent magnet manufacturers has increased, the price of praseodymium neodymium series rare earth continues to rise, and the market price of light rare earth is still at a low level. The Tariff Commission of the State Council announced the second exclusion list of the second batch of goods subject to us and Canadian tariffs, which mainly includes: rare earth metal ore, silver ore and its concentrate, gold ore, nickel alloy plate / strip / foil, nickel alloy wire, nickel alloy tube, aluminum alloy tube with an outer diameter of no more than 10 cm, titanium tube, nickel cadmium battery, etc. This time, the tariff imposed by the 301 measure against the United States will not be added to the rare earth metal ore, and the added tariff will be refunded. It is possible to promote the import of rare earth metal ore, which is a good support for the praseodymium neodymium oxide Market, and the price of domestic light rare earth market continues to rise.

Heavy rare earth accounts for a large proportion of annual production in the domestic rare earth collection and storage plan, which is expected to have a greater impact on the supply and demand of heavy rare earth and the price. Considering that the current closure of Myanmar still has a tightening impact on the domestic import and supply of heavy rare earth, once the collection and storage plan is implemented as scheduled, it will have a greater impact on the supply and demand of heavy rare earth dysprosium and terbium and the price rise. In the near future, the market price of heavy rare earth is generally at a high level; in addition, with the resumption of work and production, the market of terminal new energy vehicles is picking up, the price of domestic terbium series rare earth is rising, and the market price of heavy rare earth is also rising.

The Ministry of information issued the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth industry, saying that the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for rare earth enterprise application, forming the collection of relevant supporting policies for rare earth industry resumption. The policy is favorable to support the development of rare earth industry, and the relationship between China and the United States is somewhat loose. The key products of rare earth trade between China and the United States are of great significance. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. In the near future, the supply of rare earth market is normal, the demand is improving, and the market price of light rare earth is rising.

Recently, the domestic demand for rare earth is higher than before. In addition, the supply of medium heavy rare earth market is still tight. Analysts of business agency expect that the market price of rare earth in the later period may continue to rise.

This week (6.1-6.5) the price of NBR fell slightly. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of NBR at the beginning of the week was 13900 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the week was 13833 yuan / ton, with a slight decline of 0.48% overall.

The rise and fall of raw material prices show each other, and mutual restriction has an impact on the price of NBR. The price of butadiene has a small decline, and the price of acrylonitrile has a small rise. According to the business news agency, the price of butadiene was 4140 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, 3801 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 8.19% on the whole; the factory price of acrylonitrile Shanghai Secco was increased from 7750 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week to 8000 yuan / ton, up 3.23% on the whole.

In addition to the shutdown of some NBR units, the overall start-up of NBR is stable, the overall start-up rate of NBR has little change, and the supply side still faces pressure. According to the business agency, Lanzhou Petrochemical’s 15000 ton nitrile rubber plant was shut down for maintenance on May 27, and it is planned to shut down for 25 days. Zhenjiang Nandi, Jinpu YINGSA and Ningbo shunze units are under normal operation.

In terms of the downstream, at present, the downstream plants still mainly consume the early inventory, with a small amount of inquiry on demand, and the overall sales volume of NBR is slightly flat.

Future market forecast: the NBR analysts of the business club think that the downstream demand is flat, the overall start-up of NBR is not low, and it is expected that the NBR market will continue to be weak in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of power coal fell slightly this week. On June 1, the average port price of power coal was maintained at about 554.75 yuan / ton, and on June 5, the average port price of power coal was maintained at about 551.75 yuan / ton, with the overall price falling by 0.54%, 7.89% lower than the same period last year.

On June 7, the power coal commodity index was 66.48, unchanged from yesterday, down 35.46% from 103.01 (2011-11-15), the highest point in the cycle, and up 48.72% from 44.70, the lowest point on January 20, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of origin, the “two sessions” ended in China. In early June, the control of policies such as coal management ticket was gradually relaxed, production and supply were gradually restored, the downstream procurement was ok, the overall coal price still rose slightly, and the coal price of some coal mines was slightly reduced. It is understood that in recent days, the environmental protection inspection of coal mines in Shenmu area of Shaanxi Province has affected most of the coal mines, which have been shut down for rectification, and the coal volume has been slightly reduced. In addition, some Inner Mongolia customers have turned to Yulin, and the coal price in Shenmu area has been increased by 5-25 yuan / ton in a stable way. The overall sales situation of coal mines in Yulin area of Shaanxi Province is stable, and the coal on the mine is generally less. Since the completion of the overhaul of Daqin Railway, the transfer in of Beigang port has gradually returned to normal, and the inventory has picked up slightly, while the downstream procurement has slowed down, and the shipment is mainly based on long-term cooperation, and there are not many market coal transactions.

In terms of downstream power plants, after the end of the “two sessions” and the completion of the overhaul of Daqin line, the transfer in level of the port around the Bohai sea gradually picked up, with strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market at the beginning of the month, stable quotation from traders and fair transaction. With the arrival of the southern rainy season in the later period, the power generation of hydropower gradually started, the power of thermal power was partially squeezed, and the increase of coal consumption of coastal power plants was limited. At this stage, the inventory of coastal power plants has dropped, and the inventory of key power plants has remained stable. As of June 5, the inventory of six coastal power plants was 14.435 million tons, with a quarter of a thousand tons increase in the weekly to environmental ratio, a decrease of 1.369 million tons compared with the same period last month; the daily coal consumption was 601000 tons, with an increase of 8000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio, with an increase of 52000 tons compared with the same period last month; the available days were 24.0 days, with an increase of 0.1 day in the weekly to environmental ratio, with a decrease of 4.8 days compared with the same period last month.

In terms of import, under the stable exploration of domestic coal price and strict control of imported coal, the terminal purchase was suspended, the increase of imported coal price was narrowed, the upstream and downstream wait-and-see mood was strong, the purchase enthusiasm was not strong, the number of transactions was small, and the market trading atmosphere was still cold.

Analysts of the business club believe that: in the near future, there has been continuous rain in the south, the daily consumption of coastal power plants is at a low level, and the willingness of the power plants to actively replenish the storage is weak. With the fall of coal demand, coal prices are facing a correction. However, as the weather turns hot, the peak season of coal consumption will officially come, “peak to summer”. Under the peak season of coal consumption, the coal price still has some support. It is comprehensively estimated that the supply and demand of power coal market in the later period is optimistic and there is room for increase. However, with the increase of rain in the later period, the increase range may not be large. See the downstream market demand for details.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 grade I products was 4766 yuan / ton on June 1, 4833 yuan / ton on June 5, and the price rose 1.40% this week.

The commodity index of chlorinated paraffin on June 5 was 71.96, which was the same as yesterday, 34.24% lower than the highest point of 109.43 (2013-12-03), and 12.70% higher than the lowest point of 63.85 on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the cost of chlorinated paraffin fluctuated slightly, and chlorinated paraffin rose flexibly. The ex factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Jiangsu Province is 4600-5200 yuan / ton, that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Hebei Province is 3900-4700 yuan / ton, and that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Henan Province is 4000-5300 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4300-5200 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 4900 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is 4800-5400 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 4500-5400 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4000-5000 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4500-5000 yuan / ton.

At present, the raw material market is mainly stable. The price of wax in upstream raw material liquid remained stable, and the market mostly purchased on demand. The mainstream price of raw material liquid chlorine market runs smoothly, and the price of some enterprises rebounds and rises. The downstream procurement is not active and the transaction is average.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffin in business association think that chlorinated paraffin rose slightly due to the fluctuation of raw materials. However, there is no improvement on the demand side, and the downstream is mainly waiting. It is expected that the chlorinated paraffin market will run smoothly in the later stage.

On June 2, the sulfur commodity index was 30.54, up 1.64 points from yesterday, down 70.59% from 103.84 (2011-11-02), the highest point in the cycle, and up 18.42% from 25.79, the lowest point on February 24, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price trend of sulfur rose on June 3. The sulfur production price in East China was 556.67 yuan / ton, up 5.70% on a single day, 8.44% higher than that of last month. On Tuesday, refineries in various regions in China adjusted their prices according to their own shipments. Sinopec Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. in East China and Shanghai Gaoqiao Petrochemical Co., Ltd. raised their prices by 20 yuan / ton, while other manufacturers’ prices were temporarily stable; Sinopec North China’s solid-liquid sulfur rose by 30 yuan / ton; Sinopec Shandong’s solid-liquid sulfur rose by 40-50 yuan / ton.

Downstream, on June 2, the domestic monoammonium market fluctuated slightly, and the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 62.37, up 0.22 points from yesterday. There is no inventory pressure for enterprises, and some enterprises also have a strong price intention. However, some manufacturers hold firm to the idea, and the overall market consolidation and operation. The market of diammonium is running smoothly, the domestic market is general, and the market demand is weak. Some enterprises start off-season maintenance to prepare for the autumn market. At present, the price has not fluctuated, maintaining the previous level.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the sulfur analyst of the business agency, at present, the external supply of sulfur is tight and the price is higher than the intended purchase price. The domestic market is relatively resistant to the high-end price, and the market operation mentality is not active. In the downstream, the factory’s enthusiasm for purchasing into the market is not high, the demand for phosphate fertilizer is weak, the sulfuric acid market is weak and stable, and the downstream buyers mainly purchase on demand. It is expected that the sulfur market will be frozen and consolidated in the short term.