According to the data monitoring of the business association, the price of zinc rose first and then fell in 2019, and the overall price of zinc fell sharply throughout the year. Zinc prices rose only slightly in the first quarter, after which zinc prices continued to fall, with no rebound. Such a market is inseparable from the macro-economic environment in 2019.

Due to the chemical characteristics of zinc products, zinc is widely used in all aspects of production and life. Zinc ingot is mainly used for raw materials such as galvanized sheet, zinc alloy, zinc oxide, etc., and is finally widely used in automobile manufacturing, construction, shipbuilding, light industry, machinery and other industries. Automobile manufacturing, construction, marine machinery and other industries are closely linked with the macro-economy, or the indicator of the trend of macro-economy. Therefore, the trend of macro-economy in 2019 is one of the main factors affecting the price of zinc in 2019, and the Chinese economy in 2019 can be summarized as the industrial upgrading under the influence of trade war.

Since the US President trump announced on March 22, 2018 that he would impose large-scale tariffs on US $60 billion worth of goods imported from China, the Sino US trade war has gradually escalated. In 2019, under the haze of Sino US trade war, China’s manufacturing boom index fell in an all-round way.

1、 China manufacturing PMI

From the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, it can be seen that the purchasing manager index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry in 2019 is less than 50% for most of the time, indicating that the manufacturing industry in 2019 is in recession and the downward pressure on the manufacturing industry is large. At the beginning of the year, the PMI in March and April was ≥ 50%, and the manufacturing industry was in the expansion range, which was also the rising range of zinc price in 2019. After that, the PMI of China has been lower than 50%, and the zinc price has not recovered from high.

2、 Domestic automobile production in 2019

The impact of Sino US trade war on China’s domestic economy is also reflected in the decline of automobile production. In 2019, China’s automobile production dropped significantly, and the automobile production dropped more than 10% year-on-year for four consecutive months. The market of automobile industry is weak, the demand for zinc in automobile manufacturing is obviously reduced, and the market of zinc is bad. The biggest drop in auto production was in zinc prices.

3、 Future forecast

On December 13, 2019, China and the United States reached an agreement on the first phase of China US economic and trade agreement on economic and trade issues. At the end of the Sino-U.S. trade dispute, it is expected that China’s macroeconomic environment will recover in 2020, and it will rise in real estate, automobile and other aspects compared with 2019, which will greatly benefit the zinc market in 2020. But in 2020, zinc market will not simply stop falling and pick up with the improvement of macroeconomic environment. Due to the high processing cost of zinc concentrate in 2019, the production enthusiasm of zinc smelting enterprises has been improved, and the zinc production in 2019 has increased significantly. From January to November 2019, the total zinc production has reached 5.692 million tons, up 9.0% year on year. In 2019, the zinc output rose sharply year on year, but the weak demand led to the existence of a large number of zinc stocks in the zinc market in 2019, which had some resistance to the rise of zinc price in the future. In November 2019, the macro-economic environment picked up, and the price of zinc did not rise, that is, the social stock of zinc offset the rising momentum.

Generally speaking, analysts of zinc data of business association believe that in 2019, the price of zinc fell sharply due to the drag of macroeconomic downturn, while the high processing fee of zinc concentrate led to a substantial increase in zinc production, and in 2019, the domestic zinc market severely oversupplied. In 2020, with the understanding of Sino US trade dispute, China’s macro-economic environment has recovered, and the demand of zinc market is expected to rise sharply, which is good for zinc market; however, the oversupply of zinc market is bad for zinc price to some extent, and the power of zinc price rise is weakened. Zinc price is expected to rise slightly in 2020.

In addition to macro-economy, zinc investors can also pay attention to automobile production and sales, real estate investment and sales, zinc processing fees, zinc production and other information.

1. In 2019, the price of domestic fluorite fell sharply

According to the monitoring, the price of fluorite in China fell sharply. At the end of the year, the price of fluorite was 2894.44 yuan / ton, down 20.34% compared with 3633.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year. In 2019, the highest price of fluorite was 3633.33 yuan / ton, and the lowest price of fluorite was 2815 yuan / ton on April 22. In 2019, the supply of fluorite in China is a little tight. Due to the impact of environmental protection problems, there are many domestic manufacturers that have stopped production of fluorite, and the market price of fluorite is still supported.

2. Market price of hydrofluoric acid “diving” in 2019

According to the monitoring results, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid Market in 2019 dropped sharply. As of the end of the year, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market was 10240 yuan / ton, 24.84% lower than the market price of 13625 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year. In 2019, the highest price of hydrofluoric acid market was 13625 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 9600 yuan / ton, the lowest price was on November 21, and the largest amplitude in China was 41.93 %。 In 2018, the market of fluorine chemical industry was lower, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid was significantly lower.

3. Effective export control: Japan’s export of HF to South Korea was zero in August

Japan’s Ministry of Finance released trade statistics of various varieties in August, showing that the volume and amount of hydrogen fluoride used to clean semiconductors exported to South Korea were both zero, highlighting the impact of Japan’s opening of export controls on South Korea. Statistics also show that Japan’s beer exports fell 92.2% month on month. According to analysis, this is due to the rebound of South Korea’s strengthened control over Japan, that is, the impact of its domestic boycott of Japanese goods.

From July 4, the Japanese government strengthened export control over three materials, including hydrogen fluoride, to South Korea. The government reviews every contract after the application is made by the enterprise. According to the analysis, exports have been approved since August, but it is said that the trade statistics “include the actual data of the export approval stage from the customs”.

It is reported that the export volume of hydrogen fluoride in July also decreased by 83.7% month on month, to 479 tons. The other two materials are “fluorinated polyimide” for organic EL display screen of smart phone and “photoresist” coated on semiconductor substrate. Due to statistical classification, the export volume and other data cannot be mastered.

4. The era of low GWP refrigerant is coming

At the press conference of 2019 China Refrigeration Exhibition held in Shanghai, the head of fluorochemicals business of comer said that with the continuous upgrading of global environmental regulations and the continuous development of low global warming potential (GWP) products, the market of fluororefrigerants is now in the transition stage from traditional refrigerants to more environmentally friendly low GWP refrigerants. The era of low GWP is coming.

When asked about issues related to the low GWP era, Joseph t. martinko, global business and marketing director of opteon and HFO products, said: “the low GWP era is a concept of the fluorine chemicals market. At present, this market is in the transition stage from traditional refrigerant to a more environmentally friendly low GWP refrigerant. ”

5. Argentina launched anti-dumping investigation on HFC mixed refrigerant to China

The trade remedy Investigation Bureau of the Ministry of Commerce issued an early warning, and the Ministry of production and labor of Argentina issued an announcement on February 25, 2019, deciding to launch an anti-dumping investigation on HFC mixed refrigerant imported from China. The tax numbers of the products involved in the case are: 38247810 and 38247890.

The enterprises involved in the case shall complete the answer sheet according to the requirements of the investigation authority, and submit the questionnaire to the Albanian side within 30 days after receiving the questionnaire. The closing time for submitting the supporting materials shall be 10 working days after the announcement of the preliminary determination. The answers and relevant evidence shall be translated into Spanish by an interpreter registered and certified by the Albanian embassy and consulate in China. The interested parties involved in the investigation shall also attach with the materials the certification documents proving their qualification of signing right.

6. Argentina does not take temporary anti-dumping measures against HFC mixed refrigerant

Argentina’s Ministry of production and Labor issued resolution 2019 / 96 on August 5, 2019, deciding to continue to carry out anti-dumping investigation on HFC mixed refrigerant originating in China without imposing temporary anti-dumping duty. The tax numbers of the products involved in the case were 3824.78.10 and 3824.78.90.

7. National development and Reform Commission: cancel the regulations on forbidding foreign investment in exploration and mining of molybdenum, tin, antimony and fluorite

On June 30, 2019, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce issued the Special Administrative Measures for foreign investment access (negative list) (2019 version) and the Special Administrative Measures for foreign investment access in the pilot free trade zone (negative list) (2019 version). We will ease access to agriculture, mining and manufacturing. In the field of agriculture, the provisions prohibiting foreign investment in the development of wild animal and plant resources shall be cancelled. In the field of mining industry, the restrictions on oil and natural gas exploration and development limited to joint ventures and cooperation shall be lifted, and the provisions prohibiting foreign investment in exploration and exploitation of molybdenum, tin, antimony and fluorite shall be cancelled. In the field of manufacturing, the provisions prohibiting foreign investment in the production of rice paper and ink ingots shall be cancelled.

8. Jinshi resources: the leading performance of fluorite industry keeps growing

Jinshi resource is the largest enterprise with resource reserves, mining, production and processing scale in domestic fluorite industry, and the leading enterprise in fluorite industry. In 2018, the company achieved an operating revenue of 588 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.6%; and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 138 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.5%. The company’s operating revenue and net profit reached a record high. In the first half of 2019, thanks to the increase of product production and sales volume and the increase of sales price, the company realized an operating revenue of 357.7796 million yuan, an increase of 62.77% over the same period of last year; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 110.7251 million yuan, an increase of 160.67% over the same period of last year.

1、 Price trend of sodium pyrosulfite in China

According to the monitoring of the business association, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite continued to run at the bottom this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1760 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 1760 yuan / ton, up or down 0.

2、 Market analysis

Product: near the end of the year, the market demand of sodium pyrosulfite has not improved. This week, the market price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite is in the range of 1680-1900 yuan / ton, and most of the prices are concentrated in the range of 1700-1800 yuan / ton. The inventory of the enterprise is relatively sufficient, the overall purchase and sale of the downstream is cautious, the enterprise mainly completes the orders of old customers, and the increase of new orders is limited. Affected by the continuous suppression of raw material cost, the trading atmosphere of sodium pyrosulfite market this week is general. (the above prices refer to the foreign quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, some of which are temporarily excluded from the scope. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation).

Industry chain: this week, the price of soda ash in the upstream is relatively stable, the price of sulfur is down 6.98% again, the cost of raw materials continues to be explored, and the market price of sodium pyrosulfite is under pressure.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that under the pressure of raw material cost, the downstream overall purchase and sales are cautious, and the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to be weak at the bottom in the short term.

According to statistics, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in China has increased slightly. As of December 18, the price of phthalic anhydride by o-phthalic acid method was 6350 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of o-phthalic anhydride market has increased slightly. On December 17, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 61.68, unchanged from yesterday, 48.66% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 120.13 (2012-02-28), and 27.39% higher than the lowest point, 48.42, on January 21, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

In recent years, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market has slightly increased. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China has been temporarily stable. The downstream factories maintain the rigid demand for purchase. The factory inventory pressure still exists, and the high-end transaction is blocked. In recent years, the spot supply of manufacturers is slightly tight, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has slightly increased. In East China, the main flow of negotiation for neighboring method source is 6200-650 yuan / ton, and that for naphthalene method source is 6000-6200 yuan / ton; in North China, the main flow of quotation for phthalic anhydride market is 6200-6300 yuan / ton, most of the manufacturers in the field are mainly stable, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is mainly on demand, the wait-and-see mentality is strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field has little change The price trend of phthalic anhydride is limited.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6200 yuan / ton. Due to the high unit operating rate of some domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the normal supply of goods within the site, the import phthalic acid Market in the port area remains at a low level. In the near future, the phthalic acid Market in the port is stable, the port inventory is low, and the external price of phthalic acid is temporarily stable. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the details are discussed in detail Benzene price stability, phthalic anhydride market price trend limited.

The downstream DOP price rose slightly, the price of isooctanol was stable, and the cost of DOP raw materials was stable. The downstream demand of DOP is poor, the customer’s purchasing enthusiasm is poor, the downstream PVC price is adjusted by fluctuation, and the maintenance demand of PVC manufacturers is general. The mainstream quotation of DOP market is about 7300-7550 yuan / ton, the rising power of DOP in the future market is weakened, and the price trend in the downstream market is normal, but the price of ox in the upstream market is low and fluctuated, and the demand of plasticizer industry is not changed much. The phthalic anhydride analyst of business society expects that the market price of phthalic anhydride will rise slightly in the later stage.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of sulfur market in East China at the beginning of this week was 586.67 yuan / ton, while the average ex factory price at the weekend was 573.33 yuan / ton, down 13.34 yuan / ton, down 2.27%, 56.23% compared with last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic sulfur market is mainly stable, and the sulfur quotation of individual refineries is appropriately down according to their own shipment. On the port side, the Yangtze River port rose steadily, the market negotiation atmosphere was flat, the buyer and the seller were mainly stuck on the sidelines, and the actual single information was rare. In terms of supply and demand, refineries in various regions in China mainly operate in low inventory, and some refineries are arranged in narrow range with the market. At present, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in East China market is 520-660 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 470-630 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of solid sulfur in Shandong market is about 600 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 520-600 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of solid sulfur in North China market is 530-560 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 510-540 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the performance of the downstream sulfuric acid market is obviously different, and the market is up and down. At the beginning of the week, the supply of acid enterprises in Shandong was not stable, the price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers fell slightly, the downstream gas buying was general, and the actual transaction was limited; the delivery of sulfuric acid manufacturers in Jiangsu and Henan was flat, and the price was narrow downward; under the influence of sulfuric acid manufacturers’ maintenance and sulfuric acid export in Guangxi, the price was slightly increased; the trade of acid enterprises in other regions was weak and stable, and the attitude of the industry to stabilize the price was obvious. At present, the contradiction between supply and demand in the sulfuric acid market is still the same, and the market support is limited.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 49th week of 2019 (12.9-12.13), there are 24 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are glycol (17.59%), crude benzene (7.07%) and aniline (6.81%). There are 28 commodities with a decline of more than 5% on a month on month basis, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decline are hydrochloric acid (- 6.41%), chloroform (- 4.55%), and bisphenol A (- 3.62%). This week’s average was 0.07%. )

III. future forecast

According to the sulfur analyst of the business association, at present, the port inventory is still high, the downstream construction is low, and the price of ammonium phosphate and sulfuric acid is weak. Most of the operators are cautious about the current market, and there is no substantive good guidance on supply and demand. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will be weak and stable, depending on the situation of factories in the future.