Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of April 10, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2474 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol market was mainly higher.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic methanol market continues to differ, with local growth in the Mainland. The port market is now clearly linked, with a sharp fall in futures in the afternoon. In the mainland market, the Northwest Spring Inspection has been launched one after another, the supply side has been tightened, short-term price support has been tightened, and some areas in the mainland have increased slightly. At present, downstream installations have not been restored, and the demand side is difficult to improve in the near future, so we need to focus on the latter. It is expected that the regional trend of the short-term market will continue, and we need to continue to pay attention to the maintenance dynamics of Northwest China’s equipment and the impact of Jiangsu’s safety regulation.

In terms of freight, domestic freight for methanol has been sorted out in recent days. The freight from northern Inner Mongolia to northern Shandong refers to 220-250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; from southern to northern Shandong 150-240 yuan/ton. From Shanxi to North Shandong, 90-120 yuan per ton, from Guanzhong to North Shandong, 130-180 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan per ton, to South Shandong, 140-190 yuan per ton. Ningxia to the north of Shandong 280 yuan / ton, Shenhua to the north of Shandong 300 – 320 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: formaldehyde in Shandong is temporarily stable. Some formaldehyde shutdown enterprises have plans to resume production, and formaldehyde or finishing in Shandong has fallen in the later period. Linyi is now around 1400 yuan/ton, Zibo and its surrounding areas are maintained at 1500-1550 yuan/ton. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market is narrow and stable. The low spot supply in East China and North China is due to the centralization of equipment maintenance information. Dimethyl ether: Dimethyl ether Market consolidation, market turnover improved. The liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) market boosted downstream mentality and improved shipments from manufacturers.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperatives Viewpoint: On the positive side, installations: the recent spring inspection of some northwest projects, local supply contraction, export volume reduction, strong mentality; downstream installations: some downstream installations are planned to resume work, local downstream demand or a small increase. Inventory: short-term port market inventory is at a high level, to some extent inhibit spot prices; demand side: at present, the downstream devices such as dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, acetic acid have not been restored, and terminal demand is limited; futures: the futures market has fallen sharply, and port spot declines accordingly. Methanol analysts from business associations predict that the regional trend of domestic methanol market will continue in the short term, and they need to continue to pay attention to the maintenance trends of Northwest units and the impact of Jiangsu’s safety renovation.

The price trend of potassium chloride in China is somewhat uncertain, and the industry has different expectations for the future market. At present, most sellers say that the pressure is within control, and the rising demand and logistics as well as urea and other fertilizers have supported the market. The official price document of Salt Lake in April hasn’t been issued yet, but it is basically determined that the quotation is stable and the monthly rebate increases by 50 yuan, which is a supplement to the previous market decline, and the impact should not be too great for the time being.

In addition to Lianyungang because of excessive supply and prices are still low, the price of potassium chloride in the port has stabilized and gradually showed a small upward trend. At present, 62% of the price of white potassium is 2350-2400 yuan/ton, and the turnover is 2350-2380 yuan/ton. The high-end is mainly for scattered small orders or chemical customers. The price of 60% Dahong granules in Northeast Port has risen to 2440-2480 yuan/ton, which is mostly in the low-end for the time being. The other ports offer 2400-2450 yuan/ton.

The potassium chloride supply of frontier trade in March has been sold out, and most of them have been delivered. The order of April has only been signed for a few days, the vehicle number has not been issued, and the arrival time is uncertain. At present, the market of potassium chloride in frontier trade is in a state of no goods available for sale and no quotation at present; 60% of the extruded Dahong granule supply is still tense, and the factory is carrying out the pre-order, and the quotation of Manzhouli factory with a small quantity of extruded reaches 23. About 50 yuan per ton.

Port self-extraction: 60% red powder 2250-2350 yuan; 62% white crystal, powder 2350-2400 yuan; 60% red particles 2400-2480 yuan. Frontier trade boards: 62% white crystal and powder are out of stock for the time being. 60% of the large factories in China reach 2170-2350 yuan, while 57% of the small factories leave 1650 yuan.

Price Trend

According to data from business associations, the acrylic acid market rose slightly this week, with an offer price of 7,900.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, rising slightly, with a weekend offer price of 7,966.67 yuan/ton and a price increase of 67 yuan/ton, or 0.84%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Acrylic acid market prices stabilized this week, terminal industry demand warmed up, good supply sales. At present, the mainstream price in the primary market is 7800-8300 yuan/ton, and there is limited room for negotiation. As of Friday, the price of acrylic acid in Wanzhou Petrochemical Company was stable, with 8600 yuan/ton of propionic acid, stable price and factual statement; the price of acrylic acid in Ningbo Taiyuan Plastic Company was stable, with spot quotation of 8450 yuan/ton; the price of acrylic acid in Wanhua Chemical Petrochemical Company was temporarily stable, with the main supply contract and stable customers. At present, the price of acrylic acid is 7800 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: Recently, the domestic propylene (Shandong) price has been rising continuously. At present, the mainstream transaction in the market has risen to about 7100-7250 yuan/ton. Recently, the approaching of propylene plant overhaul, Wanhua PDH device officially began parking overhaul on April 1, 2019, is expected to overhaul about 20 days, propylene downstream production plant normal operation.

3. Future Market Forecast

Acrylic acid analysts believe that the domestic acrylic market has recovered slightly, the price of propylene in the upstream has increased, and the inventory of downstream enterprises has gradually warmed up. Most of them are based on rigid demand. It is expected that the focus of acrylic acid market will shift in the short term and the transaction price will rise slightly.

On April 2, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 64.88, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.99% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), and up 33.99% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recent domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride has maintained a weak position, the market of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in eastern China has consolidated weakly, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory pressure has continued, high-end transactions have been blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiations is 6500-6700 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 6400 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 6500-6700 yuan/ton, and the Main, the quotation trend of enterprises has slightly declined, downstream construction is not high, on-demand procurement is the main, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride plant operation is stable, phthalic anhydride spot supply is normal, the market is not good, phthalic anhydride prices remain low.

Recently, the executive price of the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, is 6800 yuan/ton. The actual market transaction price is 7100 yuan/ton. The quotation is stable and the port is out of stock. The upstream raw material mixed xylene price is stable, the turnover of phthalic anhydride is general, the stock of phthalic anhydride in port is low, the price of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, the cost of imported phthalic anhydride is rising, the actual transaction price is discussed in detail, the upstream price trend is stable, and the market price of phthalic anhydride remains weak. DOP prices in the downstream are lower. Recently, in the DOP market in Zhejiang, the quotation of merchants has dropped to 8300-8400 yuan/ton, and the downstream price has slightly decreased. The demand for phthalic anhydride in the upstream is limited. The market price of phthalic anhydride has slightly decreased. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride in the later period will be around 6600 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

The propane Market oscillated upward in March. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of propane was 4067.5 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 497.5 yuan/ton. The average price of propane rose by 3.2% in the month, 8.55% higher than that of the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Propane prices fell first and then rose this month, the market atmosphere is general. As of March 29, propane from Dongming Petrochemical Company and Zhonghai Fine Chemical Company of Shandong Province were not quoted for the time being. The ex-factory price of propane in Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group Supply and Marketing Company is 4200 yuan/ton, Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group is 4230 yuan/ton, Shandong Huifeng Petrochemical Company is 4280 yuan/ton, Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company is 4180 yuan/ton, Shandong Binzhou Dayou Group is 4250 yuan/ton, and Qingdao Petrochemical Company is the limited liability company of Sinopec. Propane ex-factory price is 402 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: In March, domestic liquefied petroleum gas market price first restrained and then increased, overall downward. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic liquefied gas market was 4100 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 3996.67 yuan/ton. The price fell by 2.52% in the month and increased by 10.21% compared with the same period last year. Domestic propylene (East China) prices fell sharply in March and then fell again. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic enterprises was 7290 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of domestic enterprises was 6965 yuan/ton. In the month, the price fell by 4.46%, which was 19.43% lower than that of the same period last year. In April, Saudi Arabia’s Amy CP: Propane 515 US dollars per ton, up 25% from last month. Butane is 535 dollars/ton, up 15% from last month.

In March, the propane Market showed a moderate performance, with price fluctuations rising. The trading atmosphere in the market is slightly better than last month. Influenced by the March CPC rise, prices rose slightly at the beginning of the month. But the good times are not long, the market demand is slow, and the price quickly returns to rationality. In addition, the market supply is abundant, the import gas is large, the manufacturer’s shipment is not long, and the price falls again. Price rebound since mid-term, supported by cost, and OPEC production reduction related news, provides a good atmosphere, the U.S. crude oil inventory continued to decline, the market mentality has also been supported, the manufacturers’mentality is strong, price rebound from mid-term, CPs expected to rise at the end of the month, prices continue to rise.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in March 2019, there were 19 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 8 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 11.4% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were formaldehyde (37%) (24.34%), hydrogen peroxide (24.29%) and trichloromethane (22.31%). There are 46 kinds of commodities falling in the ring ratio, and 20 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5% accounted for 28.6% of the monitored commodities in the plate. The products of the first three declines were isopropanol (-14.36%), acetone (-14.29%) and hydrochloric acid (-12.50%). This month’s average rise and fall was -1.12%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propane analysts at business associations believe that April’s rise in CPs has boosted the market and that prices may rise in the short term. However, the warming weather, market demand in the off-season, still holding prices up. The trend is expected to rise first and then fall in April.