Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, DOP prices have suddenly increased slightly this week after changing the previous downward trend. As of March 28, the price of DOP in East China was 8366.67 yuan/ton, up 2.24% from 8183.33 yuan/ton last weekend. DOP prices recovered slightly this week.

II. Market Analysis

Product analysis

DOP market demand is strong this week, but the start-up rate of DOP equipment in plasticizer enterprises remains high. Overall market demand and supply are booming, market demand is still acceptable, but at the same time, supply is sufficient, overall plasticizer DOP market is maintained, DOP price has no driving force to support.

Analysis of Industrial Chain

As can be seen from the chart above, the price of octanol has suddenly risen this week, which has led to the rise of DOP prices. Owing to the overhaul of sudden equipment failure in octanol enterprises last weekend, the supply of octanol was tight, the price of octanol was rising, and the price of upstream octanol was good for DOP. The price of octanol rose by 1.29% this week, which had a significant impact on the plasticizer DOP. Trading in the market is good, but the rise in raw material prices and DOP costs has led to an urgent price increase for DOP enterprises, and overall future plasticizer DOP is good.

3. Future Market Forecast

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business association, thinks that the DOP market demand is good at present, but the DOP equipment of plasticizer manufacturer keeps high start-up rate, sufficient supply and stable DOP market; the price of raw material octanol rises, and the cost of DOP rises, but because the equipment overhaul capacity of octanol enterprise has little effect on the overall market, the shortage price rises in the short term, but the price of octanol rises not. Can continue, future octanol prices are still mainly stable, overall future DOP cost is stable, future plasticizer DOP market performance is still booming supply and demand, DOP market is stable, DOP future price is stable.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of March 26, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market was 16700 yuan/ton, and the overall market price rose sharply.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic aggregated MDI market prices continue to rise. At the beginning of the week, the news from all sides was light, and the offer was not clear and cautious. With the announcement of the increase of Koth’s guidance price, the mindset of the dealers has been boosted. Some of the dealers are short of cash and offer high. Downstream just need inquiry, active picking. Routine overhaul of manufacturers is common in the second quarter, coupled with frequent problems in Jinhu and Dongcao devices abroad, Wanhua and Basf are likely to rise in April, and the market price of aggregated MDI will continue to rise in the short term.

On the market side, South China has aggregated the high price of MDI market. Dealers quote high prices, downstream active inquiries on demand procurement, general turnover. Towards the end of the month, we will pay more attention to the price guidance of manufacturers. The price of aggregated MDI in North China continued to rise. On-site speculation is booming, dealers offer high prices, downstream just need to actively inquire, wait and see Wanhua and Basf manufacturers guide prices. High-level consolidation of aggregated MDI prices in East China. Eastern China is not affected by the northern speculation atmosphere. Distributors are cautious in quoting prices, accompanied by shipments, downstream inquiry atmosphere is general, and the manufacturers’guidance prices are on the lookout.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: East China pure benzene purchase is scarce, considering the value-added tax changes in April, the mentality of wait-and-see. Spot purchases refer to 4600-4650 yuan/ton, selling 4800 yuan/ton. Purchase price in April is 4600-4650 yuan/ton and sale price is 4750-4800 yuan/ton. May buy 4600-4650 yuan/ton, sell 4800-4850 yuan/ton. Aniline: Lanzhou Petrochemical Company stopped for maintenance on March 22, with a plan of about 15 days. Shandong market inventory is low, downstream receipt intention is still acceptable, Shandong factory price rise led to aniline Market rise. At present, the domestic aniline market digests the main increase, and the price is stable. Shandong mainstream negotiation price refers to 5900-5920 yuan/ton spot, 6040-6060 yuan/ton acceptance. East China market reference 6100 yuan/ton acceptance.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Viewpoint: On the positive side, Huntsman raised 1000 yuan/ton to 16200 yuan/ton in April; Wanhua had less supply to the distribution market in the second half of the month; Costco raised its new price by 900 yuan/ton to 15800 yuan/ton this week; and factory overhaul was concentrated in April. On the negative side, the downstream demand has just rebounded slowly; foaming agent 141B has risen sharply and the cost level has moved up, which indirectly affects the demand for MDI at the terminal. MDI analysts at business associations predict that aggregated MDI market prices will continue to rise in the short term.

On March 24, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 65.69, down 0.33 points from yesterday, down 45.32% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), up 35.67% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recent domestic phthalic anhydride market price fluctuations, the East China phthalic anhydride market weak consolidation, downstream factories to maintain just needed procurement, factory inventory pressure continued, high-end transaction hindered, on-site neighbouring source negotiations mainstream in 6600-6800 yuan/ton, naphthalene source negotiations mainstream in 6400-6500 yuan/ton; North China phthalic anhydride market mainstream offer in 6500-6800 yuan/ton, the market weak shock. The price of phthalic anhydride in China is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, the market is not good, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride remains weak.

Recently, the executive price of the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, is 6800 yuan/ton. The actual market transaction price is 7100 yuan/ton. The quotation is stable and the port is out of stock. Upstream raw materials mixed xylene price shocks maintain stability, phthalic turnover is general, port phthalic inventory is low, phthalic external quotation rises, import phthalic cost rises, the actual transaction price talks in detail, upstream price trend is stable, phthalic anhydride market prices remain volatile. DOP prices in the downstream are lower. Recently, in Zhejiang DOP market, merchants’quotations have fallen to 8100-8200 yuan/ton, and downstream prices have been declining. Demand for upstream phthalic anhydride is limited. The market price of phthalic anhydride is slightly lower. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will be around 6700 yuan/ton in the later period.

Iran Daily reported on March 18. Iran’s oil minister, Zanghane, said Sunday that Iran is currently enjoying the benefits of excess gasoline production and will soon start exporting gasoline after a reliable inventory registration. He said: “Gasoline exports started in small quantities, but we are trying to improve the production and storage of gasoline. We will make increasing petrol exports an important issue in the next Iraqi calendar year (from March 21, 2019).

Iran achieved self-sufficiency in gasoline production in February 2019 after the start of Phase III of the Persian Gulf Star Refinery (PGSR) in Abbas, a port city in southern Iraq. Alireza Sadeqabadi, head of Iran’s National Oil Refining and Distribution Corporation (NIORDC), said: “The third phase of the project will eliminate the need for Iran to import gasoline and create an additional value of more than $800 million annually for the oil and gas industry.” He said that after the full implementation of PGSR, Iran’s gasoline production has now reached 103 million litres a day, while Iran’s average daily consumption of gasoline is 87 million litres, “which will make Iran a potential exporter of gasoline.” He also said that gasoline production meeting Euro_standards would rise to 45 million litres a day.

The Persian Gulf Star Refinery is the largest condensate refinery in the world. More than 70% of the equipment needed to build the facility is provided by domestic manufacturers, and almost all the equipment installation and project execution are completed by Iranian experts themselves. At present, the fourth phase of the project has been started and is expected to be completed in two years.

On March 11, Iranian President Ruhani visited Iraq. This is Rouhani’s first visit to Iraq since he became President of Iran in 2013, aiming to strengthen economic and trade cooperation between Iran and Iran, while also seeking allies in response to U.S. sanctions.

Ruhani and Iraqi Prime Minister Abdul Mehdi discussed the border, water resources, oil and gas cooperation between the two countries, and signed a number of memorandums of understanding after the meeting.

A statement issued by the Iraqi Prime Minister’s Information Office said that the memorandum of understanding signed by the two countries involved cooperation in oil, trade and medical fields, as well as the construction of a railway connecting the two countries. According to the analysis, Rouhani’s first visit to Iraq aims at strengthening bilateral relations, and the two countries share common interests in many areas. At present, Iraq is exempted from temporary sanctions by the United States and can continue to buy electricity and gas from Iran, but the United States has always hoped that American enterprises will help Iraq achieve energy self-sufficiency.

It is understood that Iran is currently Iraq’s largest trading partner, with trade volume of about 13 billion US dollars, and is expected to increase to 20 billion US dollars in the future.