Price Trend

This week (4.22-4.26) the domestic 1_tin ingot Market declined, with the average domestic market price at 146,825 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 146,100 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 0.49%.

On April 27, the tin commodity index was 74.42, unchanged from yesterday, down 25.77% from the cyclical peak of 100.25 points (2011-09-05), and up 73.64% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 09, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Trend Analysis

Domestic market: This week, affected by Shanghai Tin, the main spot transaction price dropped from 146000-147000 yuan/ton on Monday to 145500-146500 yuan/ton on Friday. In terms of lifting and discharging, the discount area has been reduced this week, from 900-1800 yuan/ton to 500-1200 yuan/ton. Trading situation, the market wait-and-see mood is strong, trading in general.

Non-ferrous industry: This week, the US data is bright, the euro zone data is weak, the US dollar index has finally got rid of the oscillating platform range in the past two years, hitting a two-year high of 98.3. Most of the basic metals are under pressure, and the May Day is coming. Risk aversion factors and weak consumption make most of the products difficult to highlight.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Next week, there will be only two trading days in China. The market will focus on risk aversion, position reduction and inventory reduction. It is expected that most items will remain volatile and will return after the festival to await the guidance of the external market.

On April 24, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 95.13, up 0.76 points from yesterday, down 32.26% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 77.51% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid rose slightly on the 25th. Up to now, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10500 yuan/ton. The domestic start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. Enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on the spot has declined. Recently, the market situation of hydrofluoric acid is general. Because of the high raw material fluorite, some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers limit production and guarantee prices, the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid is small. The price has gone up. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 10,000-10,500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 10,000-11,000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices rose slightly, spot supply decreased slightly, but demand was not actually good, hydrofluoric acid market prices rose.

Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, the price of hydrofluoric acid products shocks. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-18,800 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery market has increased. The domestic market price trend of R134a is not good, the start-up rate of production enterprises remains low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Recently, due to the poor condition of goods, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is shaking.

Refrigerant on-site transactions are general, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is normal, but the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has decreased, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may rise slightly.

According to data from business associations, the average market price of magnesium ingots on April 24 was 17075 yuan/ton, down 0.44% from April 1, 17150 yuan/ton, and up 4.12% from the lowest price of 16400 yuan/ton in 2019 (January 9).

Recently, the price of magnesium ingot fluctuates slightly and runs smoothly. Today’s cash tax quotation for magnesium ingots (99.9%, non-pickling, simple packaging) from major producing areas is as follows:

Fugu area has 16700-17000 yuan/ton of cash remittance, Taiyuan area 16900-17000 yuan/ton of cash remittance, Wenxi area 16900-17000 yuan/ton of cash remittance, Ningxia area 16750-17000 yuan/ton of cash remittance.

Expected market outlook

Recently, the magnesium market has been on the low side, with few inquiries from magnesium enterprises in the main producing areas, mainly pre-shipment orders, and few new orders. Affected by poor downstream demand, some manufacturers have signs of downward shipment. Based on the weak supply and demand, it is expected that domestic magnesium ingot prices will be weak and stable in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of April 23, many manufacturers suspended their quotations and the domestic market for cyclohexanone was temporarily stable.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Cyclohexanone market stability adjustment, Shandong Haili export of cyclohexanone plant shutdown, the overall supply of cyclohexanone decreased, spot supply is not much, downstream chemical fiber inquiries are general, solvent market just need to purchase, market trading atmosphere is flat. The mainstream offer of cyclohexanone in North China market is delivered in cash at 10600-10800, the mainstream offer in East China market is delivered in cash at 10900-11100, and the mainstream offer in South China market is delivered in cash at 1120-11400.

Industry chain: pure benzene: pure benzene offer price rises. Crude oil rose sharply in the day, and downstream styrene due to the rebound in delivery, pure benzene prices driven by upstream and downstream, offer firm upward. Morning offer once reached 4600-4700 yuan/ton. But downstream due to weak domestic demand, cautious surge, the focus of the purchase is less than 4500 yuan / ton. Caprolactam: The liquids spot market of caprolactam continues to move smoothly. Recently, the caprolactam plant has stopped a lot. However, due to the downstream slice Market downturn, poor terminal demand, slow digestion of slice inventory, high cost of raw materials and inadequate supply of raw materials in polymerization factories, the enthusiasm of production has declined. Although the supply of caprolactam has decreased, the market performance is relatively calm. The spot price of caprolactam liquid is around 14300 yuan/ton. It is accepted and delivered to the factory in the north. The spot price of caprolactam liquid is 13800 yuan/ton and remitted to the factory in the north. The solid market continues to be stable. The price refers to 14700-14900 yuan/ton remittance. Some low-end prices are below 14500 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Cost support is relatively stable, the price of cyclohexanone is high, manufacturers are not many spot, downstream chemical fiber factories parking more, the demand for cyclohexanone may be reduced. Cyclohexanone analysts at business associations expect the market to stabilize and weaken this week.

Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production and exports declined in February compared with January as it fulfilled a global production reduction agreement reached by the world’s major oil producers late last year, according to data released by JODI on Thursday.

According to JODI data, Saudi crude oil production in February fell by more than 1% annually to 10.136 million barrels per day; Saudi exports of crude oil in February dropped by 3.8% annually to 69.77 million barrels per day.

Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s major oil producers, began to cut crude oil production on January 1, 2019 to avoid oversupply in the global oil market and to support oil price rises. Saudi Arabia has oversupply cut production or is related to the need for high oil prices for Saudi Arabia’s Amy Oil Company to go public.

Saudi crude oil stocks rose to 204.567 million barrels in February from 20.834 million barrels in the previous month. Saudi crude oil inventories reached a record high of 329.43 million barrels in October 2015.

JODI data show that Saudi refinery crude oil processing capacity in February was 27.67 million barrels per day, slightly higher than the January 278 million barrels per day level. The country exported 1.61 million barrels of refined oil per day in February, a 9.6% reduction from January.

Saudi demand for crude oil for power generation in February dropped from 377,000 barrels per day in January to 259,000 barrels per day, while demand for refined oil increased from 2.073 million barrels per day in the previous month to 2.157 million barrels per day.