The fourth quarter of 2016, emerging markets how miserable? In November December, the U.S. presidential election pummeled the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, emerging markets suffered a strong capital outflow. According to the capital flows monitoring agency EPFR data show that all emerging market equity funds in the fourth quarter of last year suffered a $7 billion 945 million fund redemption. In terms of debt, Societe Generale Bank report shows that emerging markets in addition to Chinese outside the capital outflow of $25 billion in fourth quarter of last year.

From the historical data, the fourth quarter of 2016, when earnings in developed market can provide are generally low, many investors in emerging markets to chase yield, so the emerging market has attracted a lot of capital inflows, but the situation was reversed in the fourth quarter. According to the Institute of International Finance (hereinafter referred to as IIF) report released in January 3rd showed that poor performance in the fourth quarter, the annual investment in 2016 emerging market securities to attract foreign investment of only $28 billion, the weakest since 2008 for a year, less than the 2010-2014 average of 10%. from asset classes, 2016, emerging market stocks the performance is better than that of bonds, stocks and bonds net inflows of $61 billion 400 million, a net outflow of $33 billion 800 million.

The IIF report analysis pointed out that the reason why emerging market capital outflows intensified at the end of last year, including the U.S. presidential election, then bring inflation expectations and the Fed’s more hawkish stance. In addition, the market for the RMB exchange rate uncertainty is heating up again, also worried about Trump or the government will have a negative impact on global trade. The above factors, the emerging market in the fourth quarter of 2016 once again under pressure.

Correlation of emerging market trends and decrease the Fed rate hike

There are signs in the fourth quarter of 2016, emerging market’s poor performance, the recent signs of improvement. The size of the global market in the largest two emerging market fund, BlackRock’s iShares MSCI emerging markets ETF (Code: EEM) and the FTSE emerging markets (ETF Code: VWO), in December 19, 2016 by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates after the market hit, recently began to improve, the two funds since December 19th, both rose over 5%.

SG: stabilization of outflow of funds in emerging markets

Societe Generale Asia head of currency strategy Jason Daw in January 9th, the report pointed out that emerging markets in 2016 October (mainly bonds) and November (mainly in bonds and equities) experienced a massive outflow of foreign capital, the current data show that the outflow of funds began to stabilize in December and January.

“in accordance with the traditional idea of the dollar and strong will generate pressure on emerging markets. But as we experienced in 2016, the traditional ideas may be wrong, if expected according to the traditional ideas, Trump was elected, the British won’t happen back in europe.

Over the past five years, emerging markets are a net outflow of capital, the market could fully reflect the expected. 2016 benefited from rising oil prices, emerging markets are good. I think the next emerging market will be short-term pressure, long-term, optimistic outlook.

From the perspective of long-term investors, because the fixed income outlook is not good, is expected to transfer will be long-term allocation of funds from fixed income to emerging markets.” UBS Global Asset Management Analyst in emerging markets and Asia Pacific Equity Fund Manager and Shi Bin in answer to a reporter’s question, said the twenty-first Century economic report.

“Although the Beijing haze rule every year in progress, but there is a certain distance

with the expectation of the public, Beijing in 2017 to achieve the” air pollution

prevention action plan “to determine the target great challenge.” The former vice

president of the Central Academy of China hair analysis for the twenty-first Century

economic report.

The afternoon of January 7th, Beijing mayor Cai Qi said that 2017 is the implementation

of national air ten last year of Beijing in greater scope to take measures, will take ten

key measures, iron fisted rule haze. Chen Jining said, environmental protection In 2017

the Ministry will release “13th Five-Year” air pollution prevention and control planning,

city air quality compliance deadline management and Deployment Guide, promote the

prevention and control of ozone pollution.

Chen Jining revealed in terms of water pollution, and in 2017 to implement the “ten

water” as the main line, the establishment of water pollution prevention and early

warning mechanism of comprehensive supervision, supervise the implementation of local

government responsibility, establish ecological environment protection planning and

implementation of key river basin water pollution prevention plan “13th Five-Year” and

the Yangtze River economic belt, pilot monitoring and evaluation of Yangtze River water

environment the economic belt carrying capacity. At the same time, environmental

protection The Department will also live Construction Department inspection City smelly

water remediation work before the end of 2017, the basic elimination of black odor water

district municipalities, municipalities, provincial capital city, investigation and

assessment of water environment in drinking water.

In November 2016, the domestic fertilizer market is generally stable, the main varieties of fertilizer on the whole price rose slightly. But the decrease in the urea market rising costs and output prices, a strong rebound. Market monitoring shows that the domestic urea market price reached 1400 yuan (ton price, the same below) for the year, the chain rose by 15.7%, representing a decrease of 5.4%; DAP price 2660 yuan, up 0.4%, representing a decrease of 3.6%; the average price of ammonium phosphate is 2050 yuan, down 0.5%, compared with 2.8% decline; domestic chloride k the average price of 1900 yuan, a record low, down 2.6%, representing a decrease of 17.4%; 45% of sulfur based compound fertilizer price 2130 yuan, a 1.4% year-on-year decline in the rebound, 6.6%.

According to customs data, in November the average export price (FOB price per ton of urea, the same below) of $205.7, a rise of 1.2%, the first time this year rose 23.8% year-on-year decline; TSP average export price of 248.6 U.S. dollars, a rebound in 1%, representing a decrease of 26.8%; DAP average export price of 320 dollars, down 0.9%, representing a decrease of 29.1%; three composite fertilizer export average price of $487.5, up 2.5% year-on-year decline of 20.9%.

At present, the domestic market supply and demand imbalance is still serious, export volatility, market competition, the overall price is still in the low volatility. Is expected in the short term fertilizer market overall downturn trend is difficult to have a big improvement, weak market will also continue. However, in the winter and raw material prices under the support, the domestic fertilizer market price in the short term will continue upward trend.