From April 13th to 20th, 2026, the domestic toluene market showed a continuous downward trend, with prices in the Shandong region falling sharply. The market price of toluene in Shandong region decreased from 7417.67 yuan/ton to 6727.67 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 9.3% during the cycle. The main reasons for the continued weakening of the market are the weakening of crude oil fluctuations on the cost side, relatively loose supply on the supply side, and weak procurement on the demand side. The overall trading atmosphere is light, and industry players tend to be cautious.
On the cost side: This week, international crude oil prices first suppressed and then rose, with the overall center of gravity shifting downwards, and the support for toluene costs continued to weaken. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East fluctuated during the week, and crude oil futures prices fluctuated significantly. Although there was a brief rebound after a sharp decline in the early stage, it did not form a sustained positive trend. The high-level decline in crude oil prices directly weakens the cost support for toluene production, coupled with increased market concerns about the future trend of crude oil, and hinders the transmission of positive news on the cost side. At the same time, the price difference between pure benzene and toluene remains loose, and the arbitrage window between PX and mixed xylene has opened. Although it provides some support for toluene, the strength is limited and it is difficult to offset the negative impact of the weakening of crude oil. As of March 13th and April 17th, the settlement price of the June contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $82.59 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the June contract is $90.38 per barrel.
Supply side:
The domestic toluene market supply remains loose, with active shipments from main refineries and Shandong refineries, and sufficient market supply. This week, the toluene units of major refineries such as Sinopec and PetroChina in China have maintained stable operation, and the listed prices have been adjusted downwards according to the market. The export sources of enterprises in South China have been steadily released; The operating load of local refining enterprises in Shandong region remains high, and due to the continuous decline in market prices, the willingness of refineries to ship has increased, actively reducing prices and increasing volume. Although the second quarter is the traditional maintenance season in the industry, there have been no large-scale maintenance projects implemented this week, and the overall production capacity of toluene in China has been fully released. Combined with the reasonable level of inventory maintained in East China ports, the market has abundant circulation of goods, and the supply side has significantly suppressed prices.
Demand side:
The downstream industry’s demand for toluene procurement continues to be sluggish, and the boost from essential needs is insufficient. During the week, downstream industries such as TDI, coatings, and solvents continued to operate at a low level, with weak consumption in the end market. Downstream factories mainly engaged in on-demand procurement and low inventory operations, showing obvious resistance to high priced toluene. Even though market prices continue to decline significantly, the pace of downstream replenishment remains slow, with on-site transactions mainly focused on small orders for essential needs and few large orders, making it difficult for the demand side to form effective support for the toluene market.
From April 13th to 20th, domestic PX quotations remained stable. Sinopec Sales Company’s PX ex factory price remained stable at 9600 yuan/ton, and the price was uniformly implemented in the East China, North China, Central China, and South China regions. The main production facilities operated smoothly, and the overall shipment rhythm was normal; The prices of Asian PX overseas markets have weakened synchronously. On April 10th, the FOB average price of Asian PX overseas markets in South Korea was about $1144/ton, and the CFR average price in China was about $1169/ton. As of April 16th, the FOB average price in South Korea has fallen to $1213/ton, and the CFR average price in China has fallen to $1238/ton. The overall price of overseas markets has slightly declined, and the domestic price trend is significantly stronger than that of overseas markets.
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