7 East and more methanol enterprise collective price increase, the futures contract is trading again, hit a new high this year. The spot market, 6 methanol enterprise price rose nearly 8%, this year rose more than 50%.

It is understood that the current market tight supply, the downstream enterprises to increase the purchasing power of methanol. In addition, some equipment maintenance and further reduce the supply of methanol, methanol prices boost.

The fourth quarter of this year since the methanol market appears to accelerate the rising trend:

On the one hand by the coal, crude oil and other bulk raw material prices support;

On the other hand is the verification of environmental protection, equipment maintenance and other factors make the industry supply and demand pattern improvement.

The recent northwest methanol plant accident parking, methanol supply was reduced, while Hebei, Shanxi, Henan and other places of the environmental protection examination has not diminished, small and medium manufacturing enterprises to limit production, production makes supply decline. With the increasing of subsequent snow weather, will transport goods northwest and other places the cost increases further, the regional tension in the supply and demand pattern or will continue.
The latest price The East China market, methanol prices rose to 2850 yuan per ton to 2900 yuan, of which Ningbo market price has been close to 3000 yuan per ton. Other areas continue to push up sharply, to increase 100 yuan per ton or more, Shandong, Anhui and other places more than the price of more than 2800 yuan per ton, the majority of enterprises in the northwest part of the enterprise once again raised, 3 times increase to 2650 yuan per ton. The port market, falling inventories, methanol prices have nearly 2800 yuan per ton to 3000 yuan. Near the end of the year around the stock up or speed, tight supply and demand for methanol prices is expected to post strong impetus, methanol prices are still up space.

Industry fundamentals At present, China’s methanol production capacity of nearly 70 million tons, the operating load is low, the actual production capacity is far lower than in January this year to October, the cumulative production is only 35 million 300 thousand tons of methanol. Downstream market, methanol to olefins has gradually become an important new growth point of the industry, will effectively boost the market demand. Since last year, the domestic methanol to olefin project into production peak, the new capacity is expected to reach 9 million 580 thousand tons of ethylene and propylene, which purchased methanol demand of about 24 million 130 thousand tons. The new Austrian shares owned equity methanol production capacity of 738 thousand tons of methanol product gross margin over 30%. Baotailong and Yuan Xing energy also has the capacity of methanol, the business income accounted for the proportion of revenues were 10.2% and 13.25%.
Device maintenance, Affected by environmental factors such as Henan, Hebei and other places more than methanol plant parking down the negative, the average operating rate fell to 8.78% in November. Downstream market, enterprises operating rate increase in December 1st, domestic coal (methanol) to olefins plant the average operating rate of 85.73% over the previous week, up 10.32 percentage points, Yulin Shenhua device can resume normal operation, the domestic methanol to olefins plant overall operating level increased significantly, before two enterprise parking device ether have also restarted operating rate a slight increase in 3.03% than the previous week. The downstream operating rate increased, especially the increase of methanol to olefins plant operating rate, the supporting effect on the upstream price of methanol.

Environmental pressure, As an alternative fuel of methanol gasoline, clean is better than conventional gasoline, and exhaust emissions are low, is gradually recognized by the market. 11 Yuegong ministry has proposed, will further deepen the Methanol-fueled car pilot, to establish and perfect the standard system, strengthen policy guidance, actively explore the development mode of Methanol-fueled car, promote Methanol-fueled car development for promoting vehicle fuel diversification, reduce vehicle emissions, plays an important role in energy security. At present, Shanxi, Shanghai and other places have Methanol-fueled car pilot, the pilot areas with subsequent expansion will bring new products for methanol market space.

After months of debate, members of OPEC in week three output to reach an agreement, agreed that since the beginning of January 2017 will cut 1 million 200 thousand barrels a day to 32 million 500 thousand barrels, but the production rate is equivalent to only about 1% of the global output.

Specifically, OPEC’s largest oil producer Saudi Arabia agreed to spare, greatly reduce the production cut of 486 thousand barrels a day, down 10 million 60 thousand barrels, Iraq’s second largest oil producing countries also agreed to cut 210 thousand barrels a day, down 4 million 351 thousand barrels. In addition, non OPEC members Russia unexpectedly also agreed to cut output by 300 thousand barrels a day, contrary to market expectations. However, Iran is not in the production list, but was allowed to increase to 3 million 900 thousand barrels per day.

Analysis of the industry, while the OPEC move intended to stimulate the sluggish rebound in international oil prices, but the production is very difficult to achieve the expected effect of dumbledore. On the one hand, the OPEC production rate is low, only about 1% of global output and economic growth, lack of motivation, the increased demand for crude oil is slow, difficult to change the basic situation of oil city oversupply fundamentally; on the other hand, the U.S. shale oil will regain the opportunity for development, in addition to the United States President elect Trump that will relax outside of American oil limit, because OPEC cut the initiative to make the market share and painstakingly create a rising price trend, will also boost the shale oil production increased rapidly.

As you can see, after the international oil prices slightly warmer has made the shale oil drilling number showing growth. As of December 2nd week, the U.S. oil drilling activity to increase the number of 3 to 477, the highest since January. In the past 25 weeks, the number of active drilling oil has accumulated an increase of 155, once the oil price continued to pick up, will make the shale oil yield increase rapidly, thus bullish effect largely offset the OPEC cut. Moreover, the US shale oil production cost has been reduced by nearly half compared with 2014 levels, more survivable if more U.S. shale oil into the market, which will undoubtedly bring new relationship between oil supply and demand shocks.

Previously, many domestic photovoltaic downstream manufacturers also said not to start anti-dumping of EU polysilicon, polysilicon prices will rise because of fear, and GCL and other leading enterprises of domestic polysilicon insists this year imports of polysilicon prices continued to decline has been dumping.

Data show that the polysilicon spot lowest price has dropped to $15 / kg.

Skei Tao Dege believes that the current $15 / kg of polysilicon spot prices reflect not reached between the polysilicon manufacturers and customers price level. Because of overcapacity, many initially caused large purchases of polysilicon enterprises need to deal with the backlog of inventory backlog, to obtain cash.

He pointed out that on the current market situation, at present, there are still a lot of polysilicon inventory to digest, inventory digestion speed depends on the growth rate of installed capacity of photovoltaic industry. In 2011, the global PV installed capacity of more than 27GW, 2012 is expected to exceed 30GW, next year is expected to reach 34 to 40GW, but these may vary according to the development of the market, we believe that the global polysilicon demand will grow.”

But because of the market risk, Wacker has delayed expansion in the United States of Tennessee polysilicon production plant, involving 15 thousand tons of production capacity.

“We will delay the plan for 18 months, is expected to invest in the middle of 2015.” Skei Tao Dege said that by the end of this year, the polysilicon production capacity of about 52 thousand tons.

Early last year, Wacker has announced, will build a new polysilicon production unit in the United States Tennessee, Cleveland City, is expected to put into operation by the end of 2013, the annual production capacity of 15 thousand tons. So, to 2014, Wacker ultra pure polysilicon production capacity will reach 67 thousand tons.

Business News Agency December 18th

Between the EU and the history of Chinese around the PV on the highest amount of trade protection not only for the enterprise China war care-laden, leaving Europe’s largest producer of polysilicon is abnormal anxiety.

The opening ceremony of the gap at the weekend Shanghai center Wacker Wacker Chemie, President and CEO Dr. Rudolf Staudig received the Shanghai Securities News Media Group’s visit and said, we hope that the EU government can rational decision, also hope that the government can not China impose punitive tariffs, because trade war has no meaning.

“To avoid punitive tariffs can really solve the problem itself. The use of Wacker has been supporting the new energy enterprises and Chinese Chinese photovoltaic industry. Therefore, we are currently actively cooperate with the Ministry of Commerce survey data, provide information necessary for their decision, hope the government can not impose punitive tariffs on Chinese. Even if the punitive tariffs were finally implemented, or will China export to Wacker, although the price will be higher, but I believe that our customers will continue to buy.” Skei Tao Dege said.

However, he also denied by China in factories to circumvent the polysilicon anti-dumping practices, “if re started the construction of polysilicon production base in China, in time there will be a delay, there is no way to meet the market demand for rapid growth. This is not a reasonable solution to the problem.” He said.

In his opinion, through negotiations to resolve trade barriers is the best solution. And if to impose punitive tariffs on polysilicon raw material will enable customers to buy high-quality China with a higher price.

chemical industry rose 0.48% last week. The six SWS secondary chemical industry, petroleum chemical industry or the top, up 2.46%. The rubber industry topped decline, down 0.80%. Three in the chemical industry, synthetic leather, chemical phosphorus and phosphate, viscose xng, rose 13.63%, 8.10%, 4.40%; black paint, ink manufacturing and other fiber plate decreases, down 3.79%, 2.21%, 1.90% respectively.

Industry view: continued tightening of Shijiazhuang environmental protection and forced to shut down on the local chemical enterprises, making the supply and demand pattern fine differentiation industry sub sectors to accelerate improvement. Glufosinate, according to the new Austrian shares announcement, a subsidiary of pesticide (Weiyuan biochemical, glufosinate capacity of 1000 tons / year) production, and we expect the larger Shijiazhuang richeschem chemical production possibility also follow. This means that nearly 3000 tons of production capacity glufosinate industry shut down, about 20% of total industry, increase the supply and demand tension. Therefore, glufosinate market price has risen to 13.8 last week million yuan / ton, the mainstream transaction price rose to 130 thousand yuan / ton, extended gains favorable to the lier chemical. Other sub sectors such as glyphosate, has also been driven by rising and tightening capacity of glycine, country shares, Xin’an shares, Hing Fat Group become subject to benefit.