According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 20, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 6683 yuan/ton. Compared with March 16 (reference price of n-butanol is 6640 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 43 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65%.

This week, the n-butanol market in Shandong, China, saw a slight increase and then stabilized. At the beginning of the week, some factories in Shandong region raised the ex factory price of n-butanol by 50-100 yuan/ton, while the n-butanol price of major factories in Shandong remained stable at around 6650 yuan/ton. During the weekend, the market in Shandong is mainly focused on consolidation and operation. As of March 20th, the reference price for n-butanol market in Shandong is around 6650-6700 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Market Factors

In terms of supply and demand: Currently, n-butanol factories are maintaining stable prices, actively shipping, and maintaining low inventory levels. The downstream demand market tends to restock at low prices, and a slight increase in demand has led to a narrow upward adjustment in market prices. However, overall stocking remains cautious, and the overall demand in the market has not improved significantly. Therefore, the upward adjustment in the n-butanol market during the week is limited.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere for n-butanol production capacity is relatively weak, and downstream demand is still in the recovery stage. There are signs of a game between supply and demand. According to the n-butanol data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong will mainly remain stable and operate, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

Recently (3.12-3.18), the market price of butadiene rubber has slightly increased. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 18, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 13860 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22% from 13830 yuan/ton on March 12. The price of raw material butadiene has slightly increased, while the cost of butadiene rubber remains weakly supported; The production of butadiene rubber has fluctuated slightly, and the pressure on the supply side still exists; The downstream production is basically stable, mainly providing support for the rigid demand of butadiene rubber. Recently, the supply prices of Shunding rubber suppliers have slightly rebounded, and merchant offers have slightly followed suit. As of March 18th, the mainstream prices of Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China were 13800-13950 yuan/ton.

Recently (3.12-3.18), the price of butadiene has slightly increased, with weak support from the cost of butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 18th, the price of butadiene was 11037 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% from 11025 yuan/ton on March 12th.

Recently (3.12-3.18), there has been a slight fluctuation in the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants, with overall construction around 7.0%.

Demand side: Downstream tire production is basically stable, mainly supporting the rigid demand of the butadiene rubber market. As of March 14th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 8.30%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.9% of the load.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, the price of butadiene will consolidate narrowly, and the cost support of butadiene rubber will continue to be weak; The temporary stability of downstream construction provides some support for Shunding Rubber, and overall, it is expected that the Shunding Rubber market will remain stable with a narrow range of consolidation in the later stage.

price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, in mid March, the domestic PC market continued the previous weak trend, and most spot prices of various brands fell. As of March 18th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 15766.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -1.87% compared to early March.

cause analysis

On the supply side: As we enter mid March, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises remains stable with small fluctuations. The current industry average operating level is basically the same as before, with an overall load of 86%. The average weekly production remains at a super high level of nearly 70000 tons, and the on-site supply is very abundant. Some manufacturers have lowered their factory prices at low levels. The mid stream inventory position is relatively high, and the on-site pricing continues to be sluggish. The market supply side has poor support for PC prices.

In terms of raw materials: From the above figure, it can be seen that the long positions of bisphenol A gradually ran out in the early stage. In mid March, upstream acetone fell and then consolidated, while phenol rebounded slightly, and industry confidence in cost values did not improve. At the same time, the demand for bisphenol A is average, and there is still some downward pressure on the price. Overall, the support of raw materials for PC costs is relatively weak.

On the demand side: The PC consumption pattern has been weak for a long time, and the market as a whole continued to maintain a light pre holiday level in mid March. As of March 18th, the load increase of downstream factories has not been significant, and the stocking efforts of terminal enterprises are not good. The purchasing logic is still stuck at weak demand, and the return of production capacity is not as expected. The pattern of supply-demand contradiction continues to be profound, with businesses showing a wait-and-see attitude towards low positions, buyers being resistant to high priced goods, and increasing pressure on businesses to sell. The circulation of goods in the market is slow, and the overall trading situation continues to be light. The demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.

Future forecast

In mid March, the domestic PC market fell at a low level. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently continuing to trend weakly, providing poor support for the PC cost side. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants is fluctuating at a high level, and the supply is loose. High industry inventory and high supply pressure. The current downstream demand follow-up is still slow and there has been no improvement. The market has a shortage of new orders and poor trading conditions. The deepening trend of supply-demand contradiction is expected to maintain weak operation of PC in the short term.

The terminal demand is weak, and the epoxy chloropropane market continues to decline. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 14th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 9200 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.87% compared to the beginning of this month.

Price influencing factors:

On the raw material side, the market price of propylene raw material has fallen, and the glycerol market is mainly weakly consolidating. However, overall, the cost aspect is still under high pressure. Insufficient support on the raw material side, weak mentality of manufacturers, and weak downward trend in the market price of epichlorohydrin. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 13th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6935.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.80% compared to the beginning of this month (6813.25 yuan/ton).

Supply side: The epoxy chloropropane product plant of Xinyue Group has been restored, with a steady increase in supply and normal market transactions.

Downstream demand side: The domestic epoxy resin market has a production capacity utilization rate of about 50%. Downstream terminal demand is weak, maintaining on-demand procurement and replenishing urgently needed goods, with low intention to purchase epichlorohydrin. The focus is on wait-and-see, with a cold trading atmosphere for actual orders, and the epoxy chloropropane market is under pressure.

Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the current cost support is insufficient, downstream terminal demand is weak, and the trading atmosphere for actual orders is cold. The market is more cautious and focused on restocking for urgent needs. It is expected that the market for epichlorohydrin will continue to operate weakly in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

This week (March 10-14, 2025), the market volatility of the main raw material dissolving slurry is not significant, and the cost support is limited; Downstream demand is limited, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is not high. Multi dimensional follow-up is necessary to meet the demand, and the recovery of terminal market demand is not as expected. The adhesive short fiber market is consolidating horizontally, and prices remain stable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 14th, the average market price of viscose staple fiber is 13600 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

The main raw material dissolution slurry remains stable

This week (March 10-14, 2025), the main raw material dissolving slurry market remained stable. As of March 14, the price of domestic dissolving slurry was around 7600 yuan/ton, the price of outer broad-leaved slurry was around 930 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous slurry was around 1030 US dollars/ton. The auxiliary liquid alkali market and sulfuric acid market continue to maintain stable prices, while the cost support for adhesive short fibers remains weak and stable.

Good supply and demand are hard to find

This week (March 10-14, 2025), the on-site supply gradually increased, and downstream yarns remained in high demand, resulting in poor shipments and low enthusiasm for picking up adhesive short fibers. The overall inventory level of the adhesive short fiber market increased narrowly, and the positive support from the supply side was limited.

The downstream cotton yarn market prices have not changed much. As of now, the price of ring spun human cotton yarn 30S in Jiangsu region is around 17550 yuan/ton. However, due to insufficient orders in the terminal market, the shipment situation of yarn factories is not ideal, and there is still a certain amount of raw material inventory and finished product inventory, resulting in a weak willingness to purchase adhesive short fibers, and it is difficult to find favorable support from the demand side.

Future forecast

From a cost perspective, the main material dissolution slurry market is dominated by consolidation; From the perspective of supply and demand, there may be a slight increase in on-site supply, while industry inventory may remain at normal levels. Downstream markets or consumption of raw material inventory are the main focus, and there has been no significant improvement on the demand side. Overall, the market lacks positive news to boost it. Business analysts predict that there will be little price change in the domestic adhesive short fiber market in the short term, with prices expected to be accepted at 13600-13700 yuan/ton.