1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 28th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 3940 yuan/ton. Currently, the demand for DMF in the market is weak, and downstream essential purchases are the main ones. The overall market is fluctuating at a low level and lacks favorable support.
2、 Cause analysis
In terms of the market, overcapacity and oversupply have led to price pressure, equipment maintenance, high industry concentration, and some manufacturers have reduced production due to environmental policies or equipment issues, resulting in temporary supply shortages.
In terms of methanol: supply-demand imbalance: supply side production capacity and import volume have both increased, traditional downstream demand (such as MTO) is weak, and emerging demand (such as fuel) is still being cultivated, resulting in high inventory and price pressure. Price trend: Prices will fluctuate downward in 2025, with the average spot price at the end of the year falling by more than 15% compared to the beginning of the year. At the beginning of 2026, due to geopolitical factors such as the situation in Iran, prices experienced a short-term rebound, but the rebound was highly limited by high inventory and insufficient demand.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, DMF prices will mainly remain stable and fluctuate within a narrow range.
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