According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 31, 2024, the reference market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was 7900 yuan/ton. Compared with January 1 (reference price of propylene glycol was 8300 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.82%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in January, the overall domestic propylene glycol market showed a weak and declining trend. The propylene glycol market lacks effective support, and the market price center is constantly moving towards a low level. As of January 31, the domestic propylene glycol market price is referenced around 7800-7900 yuan/ton, with a monthly price reduction of about 350-450 yuan/ton, a decrease of nearly 5%.

Factors influencing the market situation of propylene glycol:

In terms of demand: In early January, the overall trading atmosphere in the propylene glycol market was light, with flat new orders on the market and insufficient support from the demand side for propylene glycol. In late January, downstream propylene glycol was stocked in a small area before the holiday, and the demand side slightly improved. However, the wait-and-see sentiment on the market remained unchanged, and the overall support for propylene glycol remained weak. The market continued to operate weakly.

In terms of supply: At the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, some regions will start production, and the overall supply of propylene glycol will increase. The loose performance of the supply side will put some supply pressure on the propylene glycol market, so the overall supply side will provide limited market support for propylene glycol.

Market analysis of propylene glycol

At present, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the propylene glycol market is still strong. The overall mentality of propylene glycol operators is average, and there is some concern about the future market in the market. With the arrival of the holiday, logistics transportation in some regions of China has also begun to shut down one after another. Although downstream demand is generally average, the propylene glycol market is expected to fluctuate limited. According to the propylene glycol data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the overall operation of propylene glycol markets in China will be mainly calm, The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand news.

Recently (1.25-1.31), the market for dichloromethane has slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 31, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2277 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.30% from 2307 yuan/ton on the 25th. The price of raw material methanol has fluctuated lower, the price range of liquid chlorine has been consolidated, and the cost support for dichloromethane is weak; The cautious demand for downstream goods before the holiday is gradually weakening, and the inventory of enterprises has slightly increased, but the overall pressure is still acceptable. The dichloromethane market is relatively weak and consolidating, with the mainstream factory price of dichloromethane loose water in Shandong region around 2230-2350 yuan/ton as of January 31.

Recently (1.25-1.31), the domestic supply of methane chlorides has slightly increased.

Recently (1.25-1.31), the price of raw material methanol has slightly decreased, and the price of liquid chlorine has stabilized at a low level. The cost support for dichloromethane is weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 31st, the spot price of methanol was 2580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.34% from 2615 yuan/ton on the 25th. As of January 31st, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 250 yuan/ton, which is lower than the previous price.

As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream construction is stable, and demand gradually decreases after stocking, weakening support for dichloromethane.

Market forecast: According to data analysts from Shengyishe Methane Chlorides, the demand for dichloromethane is weak in the short term, with little pressure on the supply side and fluctuating costs. Overall, it is expected that the range of dichloromethane market will be mainly adjusted before the holiday.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the spot price of styrene in Shandong increased in January. At the beginning of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8560.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8810.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.92%. The current price has increased by 2.44% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

The market price of styrene increased in January. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly fluctuated slightly in the past three months, with little fluctuation in the market this month. The main reason for the increase is the continuous rise in international oil prices, strong cost support, maintenance of styrene plants, temporary reduction in supply, early stocking of some downstream goods near the Spring Festival, good spot transactions of styrene, and a slight upward trend in the market.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene increased in January, with a price of 7222 yuan/ton on December 1st; On December 30th, the price was 7950 yuan/ton. Recently, negotiations for pure benzene in East China have been active, with prices rising and traders actively shipping at high prices. Shandong Refinery has good transactions and inventory levels continue to be low.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream sectors of styrene saw a slight increase in January. At the beginning of this month, the average price of PS was 9600 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of PS was 9633 yuan/ton. There is still support on the cost side, and demand has not met expectations. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in the East China market is between 8950-10350 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) is between 9500-10550 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of EPS ordinary materials fluctuated and increased in January. The average quote for EPS ordinary materials at the beginning of the month was 10000.00 yuan/ton, and the average price for EPS ordinary materials at the end of the month was 10160.00 yuan/ton. In January, domestic EPS prices were affected by rising costs and are expected to follow a narrow upward trend in the domestic EPS market.

The domestic ABS market rose in January. Recently, the overall performance of ABS upstream materials has been relatively strong, providing increased support for the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant has seen a narrow decline in production, further reducing supply pressure. On the demand side, consumption is average, and merchants are reporting higher due to supply contraction and upstream rise. The trading in the future market may gradually weaken, but it is expected that the ABS market will be stronger in the short term due to various positive factors.

At present, international oil prices are fluctuating at a high level, and cost support is still acceptable. With the upcoming Spring Festival, the expectation of weak supply and demand of styrene is beginning to be realized, and spot transactions are weak. It is expected that the short-term styrene market will mainly experience downward fluctuations.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic hydrogen peroxide market in January was weak and fell by nearly 5%. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 816 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 776 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.9%.

Poor terminal demand, oscillation and decline in hydrogen peroxide market in January

Since January, the terminal paper market has declined, and the quantity of hydrogen peroxide purchased by the paper and printing industry has decreased, resulting in a sluggish market. At the beginning of the month, the hydrogen peroxide market weakened and the price slightly declined. In the second week, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers stopped for maintenance, and the supply became tight. The terminal caprolactam market was operating at a high level, and the hydrogen peroxide market saw an upward trend. The price returned to the front line of 820 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.65%.

Starting from mid month, the terminal paper market has continued to decline, and the demand for hydrogen peroxide in the paper and printing industry has declined. Hydrogen peroxide manufacturers lack confidence in maintaining prices, and the market is slow to sell. The domestic hydrogen peroxide market is mainly weak and downward. The mainstream quotation in Shandong region is around 800 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 20 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation in Anhui region is 900 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 20 yuan/ton.

At the end of the month, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline weakly, with the mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong dropping to 750 yuan/ton, and the hydrogen peroxide price in Anhui region dropping to 830 yuan/ton. The terminal demand continues to be sluggish, and the hydrogen peroxide market is mainly weak and declining.

Business Society’s hydrogen peroxide analyst believes that with the upcoming Spring Festival holiday in February, terminal demand is still weak, and the future hydrogen peroxide market will mainly operate weakly.

Recently (1.5-1.26), the acrylonitrile market has been weak and declining. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 26th, the bulk water price of acrylonitrile in the market was 9287 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.87% from 9762 yuan/ton on the 5th. At present, the mainstream price for self extraction of acrylonitrile from tanks in the market is between 9200 to 9500 yuan/ton. The price of raw material propylene has increased, and the cost has strengthened the support for acrylonitrile; As the end of the lunar calendar approaches, the main downstream ABS production has dropped to around 65%, leading to a decrease in purchases of acrylonitrile; The overall supply of acrylonitrile units is loose, and the impact of supply and demand is bearish, resulting in a weak market consolidation.

Recently (1.5-1.26), the production of domestic acrylonitrile units has slightly decreased, and the supply is still sufficient.

Recently (1.5-1.26), the raw material propylene market has risen, and the cost support for acrylonitrile has strengthened. Due to the shutdown of some propylene units in Shandong region, the market atmosphere has improved, and downstream enterprises have actively entered the market. On site inventory has decreased to a low level, and enterprises are actively pushing for an increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 26th, the domestic propylene price was 6980 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.16% from 6638 yuan/ton on the 5th.

It is understood that since mid to late January, downstream ABS prices have risen but production has gradually decreased to a low level of around 6.5%, resulting in a significant weakening of demand for acrylonitrile; At present, acrylic fiber factories are frequently receiving purchase orders from yarn factories at the beginning of the month, with overall low production and weak demand for acrylonitrile; The nitrile rubber plant is operating normally, with slight support for the demand for acrylonitrile; The acrylamide industry is operating at a low rate of 40-50%, and the demand for acrylonitrile is weakening. Overall, the current demand for acrylonitrile is weak, and the supply of acrylonitrile is loose, resulting in a weak market consolidation.

Market forecast: Business Society acrylonitrile analysts believe that the current supply of acrylonitrile is still sufficient; The demand side support is weak, and the price of raw material propylene is supported by the increase in equipment maintenance prices, which will provide some support for acrylonitrile. Overall, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to maintain a narrow range of consolidation in the short term.