According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic methanol market fluctuated at a low level. From January 28 to February 6 (as of 15:00 p.m.), the average price of the eastern China port in the domestic methanol market fell from 2807 yuan/ton to 2717 yuan/ton. During the period, the price fell by 3.22%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.39% and a year-on-year increase of 1.29%. After the Lunar New Year, the traditional downstream has not yet recovered. At the same time, some production enterprises have the demand for inventory scheduling. The spot gas purchase is general, and the price of methanol has declined in a narrow range.

As of the close on February 6, methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose. The main methanol futures contract 2305 opened at 2678 yuan/ton, the highest price was 2698 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2651 yuan/ton, and closed at 2677 yuan/ton, up 5% or 0.19% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1180316, the position was 1260724, and the daily increase was 1260724.

Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of 2.6:

Region/ Price

Shanxi Province/ 2450-2480 yuan/ton ex-factory

Liaoning region/ About 2600 yuan/ton

Anhui Province/ About 2660-2700 yuan/ton

Henan Province/ 2580-2600 yuan/ton

On the cost side, with the end of the holiday, some coal mines began to resume work and production, and the output rose slightly. The terminal power plants were in a weak purchasing mood under the support of long-term cooperation coal. The non-electric terminal raw coal was consumed during the holiday, and the demand for replenishment in the near future was released slightly. In the short term, the power coal price is mainly stable. The temporary storage of methanol cost is good.

On the demand side, MTBE and dimethyl ether have little change; Downstream acetic acid: Sinopec Great Wall unit restarted and the demand for acetic acid increased; Downstream formaldehyde: the demand for formaldehyde may increase as many sets of units are expected to increase and restart. The temporary storage of methanol is favorable.

On the supply side, methanol supply side is negative.

In the external market, as of the close of February 3, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 391.00-393.00 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 108-110 cents/gallon, down 1 cents/gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 337.00-339.00 euros/ton, down 3 euros/ton.

Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Up and down

Asia/ CFR Southeast Asia/ 391.00-393.00 USD/ton./0 USD/ton

Europe and America/ US Gulf/ 108-110 cents/gallon/- 1 minute/gallon

Europe/ FOB Rotterdam/ 337.00-339.00 euro/ton./- 3 euro/ton

Future market forecast shows that the supply is abundant and the demand side has little change. The methanol analyst of the Business Society predicted that the domestic methanol market was dominated by narrow consolidation.

According to the data of the bulk commodity list of the Business News Agency, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province has fluctuated and risen recently. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province at the beginning of the week was 1206.67 yuan/ton, and the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province at the end of the week was 1246.67 yuan/ton, up 3.31%, and the current price rose 5.06% year on year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province has fluctuated and risen. From the above figure, we can see that the recent market of formaldehyde has mainly fluctuated slightly, and the market has risen this week. As of February 2, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1200-1300 yuan/ton. Recently, after the Spring Festival, due to the low price of formaldehyde in the early stage, formaldehyde manufacturers have strong willingness to raise prices, and the formaldehyde market has risen.

Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market fluctuated slightly. The quotation of methanol manufacturers in southern Shandong was concentrated at 2670 yuan/ton, and it was reported that the mainstream factory price was 2600 yuan/ton. Enterprises in the central and eastern part of Shandong Province have a factory output of 2610-2680 yuan/ton; The reference price of Dongying and surrounding areas is 2570-2580 yuan/ton.

Recently, the methanol market has fluctuated, the cost support is acceptable, and the superimposed formaldehyde inventory is currently controllable. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Society expects that the recent price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province is mainly fluctuating.

DOTP prices rose in January

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of January 30, the average price of DOTP was 10625 yuan/ton, up 8.42% from the average price of 9800 yuan/ton on January 1. The demand for higher costs recovered, and the price of DOTP rose in January.

Raw material prices rose in January

According to the data detection of the business agency; As of January 30, the price of isooctanol was 10533.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.22% compared with the price of isooctanol of 9733.33 yuan/ton on January 1. After the holiday, the downstream replenishment increased, the demand recovered, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose, the cost of DOTP rose, and the rising power of DOTP increased.

According to the data of the Business Agency, as of January 30, the PTA price was 5779.55 yuan/ton, up 2.91% from the price of 5616.36 yuan/ton on January 1. In January, PTA prices fell first and then rose. The demand for PTA was low before the holiday. PTA prices fluctuated and fell. Replenishment after the holiday. PTA demand warmed up. PTA prices stopped falling and rising. DOTP costs stopped falling and rising. The downward pressure on DOTP in the future still had an increasing momentum.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DOTP data analysts of the Business Agency, the raw material of plasticizer DOTP rose in January, the price of PTA stopped rising, and the cost of raw material of plasticizer DOTP rose; Replenishment after the holiday, the demand for plasticizer DOTP temporarily warmed up, and the replenishment ended, and the demand for plasticizer DOTP stabilized in the future. In general, the demand for DOTP cost increase in the future will be stable, and DOTP is expected to be strong and stable.

Price trend

The ABS market in China rose slightly in January. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the average price on January 16 was 11850 yuan/ton,+0.85% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: ABS upstream three materials have been relatively strong in recent years. Among them, the market price of acrylonitrile rose slightly, and the price of raw material propylene rose. In addition, the manufacturer’s listing price rose in January, and the merchant’s offer rose.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has continued to rise, the prices of mainstream suppliers have risen strongly, and the inventory of East China tank farm has declined, supporting the firm intention of some merchants to offer. However, some of the high prices still need to be followed up. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will run at a high level in the short term.

The mainstream price of styrene in Shandong rebounded after falling last week, and the overall price rose. The international oil price rebounded, the pure benzene market rose slightly, and the downstream remained just in need of bargain-hunting and replenishment, while the styrene market rose supported by costs. As the Spring Festival approaches, the preparation of goods before the holiday is superimposed on the export pickup, and the styrene market is expected to rise in the short term.

On the supply side: the load of ABS industry remained high last week, the current plant operation was stable, and the supply of goods on the site continued to be abundant. As a result of the enterprise’s inventory reduction and decompression operation, the inventory position fell back, and the ex-factory price increased steadily.

In terms of demand: at present, the downstream factories including the main terminal appliance industry are in order to prepare goods, and the early stage of goods preparation in the field before the festival is basically completed. In the near future, the demand tends to be stable, and the goods are normally transported in the field. Buyers and merchants followed the market and performed steadily.

Aftermarket forecast

In the middle of January, the trend of the upstream three materials of ABS was relatively strong, which supported the cost side of ABS moderately. The petrochemical plant started at a high level and the supply was stable. Before the end of the demand period, the stock support was general, the seller’s offer was firm, and the market was firm. It is expected that the ABS market will be dominated by shock consolidation and operation in the short term.

The crude oil continued to rise, and the PTA price continued to rise driven by the cost. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic PTA market continued to rise. As of January 13, the average price of the East China market was 5535 yuan/ton, up 2.96% from the previous day, up 6.18% year on year.

Recently, the number of PTA devices restarted has increased, and the supply of PTA has increased. At present, the domestic PTA operating rate has risen to 68%. The 1 million ton unit of Chuaneng Chemical started to restart on January 9. In addition, the 2 million ton unit of Yisheng Ningbo is under shutdown, and it is planned to restart at the end of January.

Influenced by the optimistic expectation of China’s demand outlook and the unexpected drop in consumer prices in the United States in December, the Federal Reserve’s tightening monetary policy slowed down and oil prices gained support. As of January 12, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $78.39/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $84.03/barrel.

With the approaching of the Lunar New Year, the downstream terminal weaving was centralized for holiday, and the start of work fell significantly into the shutdown stage, and the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms fell below 10%. Textile enterprises are not willing to prepare goods before the festival, and weaving orders are expected to remain weak after the year.

Analysts from the Business Agency believe that the current PTA multiple sets of maintenance devices have restarted and the operating rate has rebounded, and the supply has increased. Under the traditional off-season, demand is sluggish, accelerating the accumulation of inventory. The cost center is rising, but the supply and demand are not driven. It is expected that the short-term PTA price rise will be limited.