1、 Trend analysis
Nickel prices have fluctuated and risen this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 129100 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.11% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 6.77%.
Macroscopically, the European Central Bank has raised interest rates for the first time in three years, with the three key interest rates increasing by 25 basis points, signaling a global tightening restart. The US PPI surged to 6.5% year-on-year in May, the largest increase in over three years, and inflation stickiness far exceeded expectations. The US President suddenly announced the cancellation of the planned strike against Iran, causing geopolitical risks to cool overnight. Crude oil plummeted by over 8% during trading, and risk aversion quickly receded. Gold and silver rose simultaneously. The US stock market rebounded sharply in response, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average soaring nearly 930 points in a single day, and all three major indexes closing higher. Technology stocks led the rise, driving a rebound in risk appetite.
On the supply side, the approval pace of RKAB in Indonesia dominates the mining sector, with high nickel iron production but evident cost support; MHP and high nickel ice supply are loose. In June 2026, China’s refined nickel production was 31760 tons, a decrease of 5.90% month on month and 7.98% year-on-year; The estimated refined nickel production in China for July is 31440 tons, a decrease of 1.01% month on month and 13.03% year-on-year. At present, the equipment production capacity of domestic refined nickel enterprises is 52265 tons, the operating capacity is 49515 tons, the operating rate is 94.74%, and the capacity utilization rate is 60.77%.
On the demand side: There has been no significant improvement on the demand side, with downstream demand maintaining a pace of rigid procurement, and overall spot transactions being sluggish. The overall demand for downstream electroplating is relatively stable, and it is difficult to see growth in the later stage; The consumption of alloys is gradually recovering, with good demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. Stainless steel shows weak performance and limited terminal acceptance; MHP supports the cost of nickel sulfate, but there is no significant increase in downstream ternary precursor orders, and nickel sulfate prices are mainly fluctuating.
In summary, the macro expectations are fluctuating, and there is a certain contradiction between the decrease in risk appetite for non-ferrous metals and the expectation of sulfur shortage. The nickel ore quota is still the main focus in the near future, and the uncertainty is still high. The pyrometallurgical ore is facing a pullback, but the supply and demand at the smelting end are tight. The overall sulfur support of the wet process is still high, and inventory pressure is still significant. Short term nickel prices are mainly subject to broad adjustments in the market.
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