The market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese decreased slightly this week (December 9 to December 16). The spot market price in East China last weekend was 17550 yuan/ton, and this weekend was 17500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton.

Manganese ore: This week, the northern manganese ore market maintained a consolidation operation, and the overall price did not change significantly, with few deals. The southern manganese ore market was active in trading. The semi carbonic acid cargo right in South Africa was relatively concentrated, and the transaction price was 1-1.5 yuan/ton higher than that of last Friday. The upward momentum of the oxidized ore price slowed down. As for the price, as of the 16th, the amount of carbonic acid in Tianjin Port was about 35.5 yuan/ton, that in Gabon was about 42 yuan/ton, and that in Australia was about 45.5 yuan/ton. Mn28 South Africa high-speed railway had a small supply of goods, and the price performance was firm. The quotation was 30.5-31 yuan/ton. The price of Qinzhou Port remained high. The transaction price of Australia was 47 yuan/ton, Gabon was 44-44.5 yuan/ton, and South Africa’s semi carbonic acid was 39 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart above that since March 2022, the electrolytic manganese has continued to decline. After a slight rise in the price at the end of August, it continues to stabilize temporarily. Since the end of September, the price has picked up slightly. Since October, the price has remained unchanged for a long time, fluctuated slightly in November, and adjusted narrowly in December.

The price of electrolytic manganese market decreased slightly this week. The mainstream price of the market was 16000-16200 yuan/ton. The bearish sentiment in the market was heavy, and the overall trading was slightly cold. In terms of supply, enterprises have a strong attitude of price fixing, generally above 16000 yuan/ton. The downstream demand is still soft in the near future, and the market is dominated by just needed procurement. However, as the downstream steel plants enter the winter storage season, the market is expected to improve to some extent in the near future. The performance of steel recruitment is average, and the price drops slightly, affecting the market mentality. On the whole, the current electrolytic manganese market is stable and weak. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, it is expected to maintain a temporary stable operation in the short term. In the long run, there is still a certain demand for winter storage in steel plants, and the market is waiting for the guidance of steel bidding.

This week, the domestic silicon manganese market had a strong trend. The spot price rose steadily, the market transaction was good, the manufacturer’s orders were basically full, and the spot inventory was tight. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia (specification: FeMN68Si18) was about 7200-7300 yuan/ton on December 16, with the average market price of 7225 yuan/ton, up 1.40% weekly.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic methanol market was operating at a low level. From December 12 to 19 (as of 15:00 p.m.), the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market fell from 2690 yuan/ton to 2633 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the price fell by 2.11%, 7.22% month on month and 3.03% year on year. The main reason is supply and demand. In terms of supply, most production enterprises focus on de stocking, and traditional downstream enterprises also have early parking performance, resulting in weak overall demand performance.

As of the closing of December 19, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell. The main methanol futures contract 2305 opened at 2610 yuan/ton, the highest price was 2632 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2562 yuan/ton, and it closed at 2571 yuan/ton, down 43, or 1.64%, from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1273897, the position was 976993, and the daily increase was 91518.

As of 12.19, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

Region./Price

Shanxi Province./2300 yuan/ton ex factory

Liaoning Province./2400-2420 yuan/ton or so

Anhui Province./2520-2620 yuan/ton or so

Henan Province./2370-2380 yuan/ton

In terms of cost, raw coal: the situation of epidemic prevention and control in the main production areas has improved slightly, and the supply of coal has rebounded. In the short term, due to the impact of cold air, the daily consumption of the power plant rebounds, and the demand for coal increases. However, with the support of long-term coal cooperation, the market coal procurement is limited, and the coal price is expected to operate weakly and stably. The cost of methanol is favorable.

Demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: Chongqing Wanlilai plant is planned to stop, and the demand for dimethyl ether may decrease; Downstream acetic acid: Celanese plans to start up, and the demand for acetic acid may increase; Downstream formaldehyde: Shandong Lianyi Plant reduced its load, Zibo Diancun Plant stopped, and the demand for formaldehyde may decrease; Downstream MTBE: Some overhaul plants are planned to start, and MTBE demand may increase. Methanol demand is mixed.

On the supply side, the overall recovery volume was greater than the maintenance volume, the capacity utilization rate increased, and the methanol supply side was negative.

In terms of external market, as of December 16, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 364.00-365.00 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton. The US Gulf methanol market closed at 102.75-103.75 cents/gallon, up 2 cents/ton; FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 318.00-319.00 euros/ton, up 0.5 euros/ton.

Region./Country./Closing price./Up and down

Asia./CFR Southeast Asia./364.00-365.00 USD/ton./2 USD/ton

Europe and America./American Gulf./102.75-103.75 cents/gallon./2 cents/gallon

Europe./FOB Rotterdam./318.00-319.00 euro/ton./0.5 euro/ton

The future forecast shows that the cost side of methanol is supported, and the demand side of the supply side is mixed. Methanol analysts from the business community predict that the domestic methanol market may be dominated by shocks.

Dichloromethane rose this week (12.9-12.16). According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 16, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2477 yuan/ton, up 4.32% from 2375 yuan/ton last Friday, and the lowest point in the cycle was 2337 yuan/ton. As of the 16th day, the market price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was between 2470 and 2600 yuan/ton.

This week (12.9-12.16), the spot market of methanol fluctuated downward, and the cost of dichloromethane fell slightly. According to the business community, as of December 16, the spot price of methanol was 2655 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from 2680 yuan/ton last Friday, and the peak in the cycle was 2690 yuan/ton.

When winter comes, the domestic household air conditioning industry is in the low season of production and sales. The demand for mainstream refrigerants R32, R22 and R410A is weak, and the sales of refrigerants are low; The demand of film, thinner and pharmaceutical industries is weak, and the transaction of methylene chloride market is generally flat.

Future market forecast: Analysts of methane chloride data from the business community believe that the pressure on domestic supply side of methane chloride will ease in the short term, and the demand side will be weak. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will rise in a volatile way in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the ethanol market will fluctuate in a narrow range in 2022. In 2021, the price of ethanol will break through a five-year high. In 2022, with the normalization of demand, the ethanol market will also be relatively narrow, with no obvious fluctuations. The price dropped by 2.14% from 7000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 6850 yuan/ton at the end of the year (as of December 15). The highest price in the year was 7566 yuan/ton in the middle and late May, and the lowest price was 6625 yuan/ton in the late August, with a maximum amplitude of 12.44%.

Since the epidemic, ethanol, as a major disinfectant, has become a necessity in people’s daily life. The proportion of medical alcohol has increased a lot, becoming one of the main uses of ethanol. At present, the supply of medical alcohol is sufficient to meet the people’s living needs, and the price is rarely too high for a short time due to insufficient supply. The main factors affecting the ethanol market in 2022 are demand side and cost side. It can be seen from the price rise and fall chart of the ethanol industry chain of the business community that the annual drop of ethanol was 2.14%, ethanol raw materials: wheat rose 10.67%, corn rose 6.8%, and the cost side was positive, while the downstream product ethyl acetate fell significantly, with a decline of 22.58%. It can be seen that the rise of raw materials restrained the drop of ethanol, and downstream demand directly affected the trend of the ethanol market.

The ethanol market in the whole year can be roughly divided into three stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to the middle and late May, with upward shocks; The second stage is from the beginning of June to the end of August; The third stage is from the beginning of September to now, dominated by narrow fluctuations. Specifically:

From January to May 2022, the ethanol market fluctuated upward. Supply side: The large corn ethanol plants in the northeast of the main production area have reduced production and supply. The supply side is very good, and the supply of ethanol is short. Cost: The price of raw corn rose by 6.38%. Feed in spring and summer entered the traditional peak demand season, and the consumption of corn increased. The ethanol production enterprises faced the situation of high prices of raw materials with less shortage, and the cost was good. Demand side: downstream chemical products such as ethyl acetate just need to be purchased, and Baijiu has stable demand due to weather, which supports the price.

From June to August 2022, the ethanol market will decline unilaterally, and the price will drop significantly by 11.50%. The main factors are cost and demand. Cost: The price of raw corn is on the downward trend. Affected by more rainfall in the early stage, it was difficult to store corn, and the price fell continuously; After that, wheat gradually entered the stage of large-scale listing, forming a certain pressure on corn prices. On the demand side, in the high temperature period in summer, most downstream Baijiu enterprises, the main force of ethanol, have stopped production at high temperature. The profit of ethyl acetate is upside down and its other raw material, acetic acid, is also in a weak state. The cost support is insufficient, the price drops, the start of construction is weak, and some manufacturers have stopped for maintenance and reduced load, which has led to the reduction of ethanol demand. Domestic ethanol is already in a state of overcapacity, and it is easier to accumulate inventory after the downstream demand decreases. The inventory pressure makes ethanol enterprises more bearish, and the price reduction is used to stimulate shipment. The ethanol market has been declining.

From September 2022 to now, the ethanol market fluctuated and rose in September. Affected by the pre holiday stock, the downstream purchasing atmosphere showed signs of warming. Since entering the traditional peak season of “Yinshi”, the demand for chemical end ethyl acetate has been sluggish recently, and the price has dropped continuously, which has caused the decrease of ethanol demand. Domestic ethanol is already in a state of overcapacity, and it is easier to accumulate inventory after the downstream demand decreases. The inventory pressure makes ethanol enterprises more bearish, and the price reduction is used to stimulate shipment. The downstream Baijiu enterprises, which are the main force of ethanol, have entered the start-up state in succession. However, the plant start-up rate is not high. Before the temperature turns cold, the sales of Baijiu is general, which cannot support the ethanol market in October. Since November, the amount of repeated disinfection of the epidemic has increased, and chemical enterprises just need to purchase. The continuous rise has also stimulated the downstream to take goods. At the same time, the weather is getting colder, the demand for Baijiu is increasing, and the price of corn, the raw material, remains high. The negative factors that dominate the ethanol market are in the supply side, with overcapacity and sufficient supply, and the ethanol price is difficult to recover.

According to incomplete statistics, the new coal production capacity in China will reach 3.5 million tons in the future, which is mainly due to the continuous high trend of China’s corn price, the high production cost of corn fermentation method, and the comparative advantage of coal to ethanol production cost, which will have a certain share in the market. However, the overall ethanol market supply is large, and the downstream increment is limited, so the new production increase may not be able to be implemented.

It is predicted in the future that after the centralized release of new capacity in 2022, the ethanol industry has turned into a state of oversupply, and corporate profits have shrunk significantly, which may affect the release progress of some new capacity in the later period. At present, domestic production enterprises plan to withdraw a total of 3.47 million tons of production capacity, mainly in Jilin, Heilongjiang, Henan and other regions. The main reason for the withdrawal of production capacity is that enterprises do not have industrial competitiveness and the market will eliminate itself. At present, the price of raw corn is high, the pressure on production cost is great, and the profit of ethanol production enterprises is insufficient. However, the sluggish demand is still the main factor restricting the price of ethanol. The ethanol analysts of the business community predict that the domestic ethanol market will be dominated by the downturn in the short term. In the medium and long term, the increase of corn free ethanol production capacity and high-quality coal based ethanol production capacity may lead to a wave of growth in the ethanol industry by optimizing resource allocation.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of December 14, the price of PET water bottle is relatively strong. The current average price is 7160.00 yuan/ton, up 0.42% compared with the same period last week. The overall market is relatively strong. At present, the operating rate is stable. Downstream just needs to purchase. The transaction atmosphere is general.

This week, the domestic PET price is on the strong side, and the price has risen slightly. The mainstream price is about 6900 yuan/ton. At present, the market operation rate is stable, and the negotiation atmosphere is not good enough to prepare goods.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: On December 13, the rubber and plastic index was 667 points, unchanged from yesterday, 37.08% lower than the highest point in the cycle 1060 points (March 14, 2012), and 26.33% higher than the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from the business agency believe that the mainstream price of PET market is expected to be stable and strong in the short term.