According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market slightly rebounded this week (August 18-22), with an average price of 4771 yuan/ton in the PTA market in East China, an increase of 1.08% from the beginning of the week.
The crude oil market prices fluctuated mainly. As of the 21st, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $63.52 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $67.67 per barrel. However, the overall fundamentals of PTA have improved, and the overseas market supply of PX on the cost side is slightly tight. The expected production of new PTA facilities at home and abroad has strengthened demand support, and PX is gradually strengthening. PTA East and South China facilities have postponed restart and shutdown due to unforeseen circumstances, optimizing their own supply structure. Downstream polyester demand is stable and there is a high volume of production and sales. Combined with the recent macro driven improvement in commodity sentiment, the PTA market price has risen slightly.
Looking at the future, in terms of PTA’s own supply, the continuous low processing gap has led to an increase in PTA plant maintenance plans in August. Coupled with the unplanned maintenance of Hengli Huizhou PTA plant over the weekend and weak expectations for new adjustments in domestic PTA plants, the short-term supply side will narrow, and the overall industry operating rate will be around 71%.
As costs continue to rise, the mentality of downstream polyester factories is also boosted, such as the polyester filament industry following suit. But downstream weaving enterprises are increasingly resistant and maintaining a focus on replenishing essential goods. In terms of terminal weaving, since August, with the easing of tariffs, the orders for autumn and winter fabrics and foreign trade home textiles have gradually increased, and the operating rate of mainstream weaving industries in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 52%.
Business analysts believe that PTA is currently experiencing a phase of improvement in supply and demand, and the traditional peak demand season for September is approaching. They also have expectations for September demand. Among them, the urgent orders for home clothing and bedding fabrics in early winter have been gradually released, while the autumn clothing orders have entered a centralized delivery period, which will jointly promote the sustained recovery of the overall market atmosphere. In addition, driven by macro and cost factors, PTA prices will continue to operate strongly in the short term.
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