According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 3, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 8216 yuan/ton, and on October 30 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 8100 yuan/ton), the price increased by 116 yuan/ton, or 1.44%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the domestic propylene glycol market rose slightly this week (10.31-11.3). At the beginning of the week, the propylene glycol market was mainly reorganized and operated, with little change in market news. The propylene glycol market was stable and slightly moved towards the weekend, and the propylene glycol market price in Shandong Province was slightly increased by 100-200 yuan/ton. As of November 3, the domestic propylene glycol market price was around 8000-8300 yuan/ton, and the price was increased by 300-600 yuan/ton within the week. The specific analysis of propylene glycol market supply and demand this week is as follows:

In terms of supply, at present, propylene glycol has little spot circulation, the overall supply is tight, logistics is limited and other factors affect the delivery of some propylene glycol plants slowly or temporarily. Therefore, the supply side gives propylene glycol market some support under low pressure of propylene glycol supply.

In terms of demand, currently, propylene glycol downstream demand is mainly purchased on demand. It is said that in the fourth quarter, propylene glycol has been put into production successively. Therefore, some downstream operators have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the demand side is generally supported by propylene glycol.

Future trend analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere of propylene glycol in the market is general, and the preparation of goods is cautious. The propylene glycol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the propylene glycol market tends to adjust the operation of narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price rose slightly on the second day, with the spot price of 64890 yuan/ton, up 0.8% from the previous trading day, and down 9.03% year on year.

Luntong rose on Tuesday, along with global stock markets and oil prices, as investors bet that central banks would slow the pace of interest rate increases, while the dollar weakened. The copper inventory in mainstream areas across the country increased by 8700 tons to 91900 tons month on month compared with last Friday, and the total inventory was 12000 tons lower than 103900 tons in the same period last year. The operating rate of major large and medium-sized copper rod enterprises in China was about 69.49%, down 0.29 percentage points from last week. This was mainly due to the shortage of electrolytic copper in South China and the limited raw material procurement of several copper rod enterprises, which dragged down the operating rate. The order increment of downstream cables is limited, especially for small and medium-sized cable plants, which have a strong wait-and-see mood and slow down the production pace. In general, domestic spot prices are tight, prices remain high, downstream demand slows down, and short-term copper prices remain high and volatile.

In October, domestic polyester staple fiber prices showed a trend of high opening and low going. According to the price test of the business community, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market on October 31 was 7792 yuan/ton, 1.70% lower than the price of 7926 at the beginning of the month, 4.28% lower than the same period last year. In the futures market, the staple fiber contract at the end of the month closed at 6738 (settlement price 6750), down 5.79% from the beginning of the month. This month, the main domestic staple fiber upstream raw material PTA futures fell 6.94% to close at 5012, and the main ethylene glycol futures fell 12.55% to close at 3769.

Industrial chain: 1. Although OPEC+cut production more than expected this month, the Federal Reserve’s expectation of interest rate increase is more certain, which curbs the upward momentum of crude oil prices. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main US WTI crude oil futures contract was 86.53 dollars/barrel, up 8.17% for the whole month. 2. In this month, with the restart of the large factory, PTA’s load and supply increased significantly. The terminal demand is weak, and there is a strong expectation of reducing the burden of raw materials when they are used. In addition, the Spring Festival this year is earlier than previous years, and the overall lack of confidence in the future market. PTA price goes down. 3. In this month, some domestic ethylene glycol plants were restarted, and the supply rebounded at a low level, but the overall commencement remained at a relatively low level, and the port inventory accumulated slightly. The terminal order is weak, the weaving operation rate is not high, the downstream operation level falls back, and the accumulated storage pressure at the polyester end increases. Overall, strong supply and weak demand led to lower prices. 4. The yarn market continued to be flat this month, and downstream demand was poor. Finished products continued to accumulate. Yarn mills mainly shipped goods with small orders and short orders. Prices were mostly stable, and prices of some varieties were slightly lowered.

Supply and demand side: some short fiber devices were restarted this month, and the construction started to recover. Jinzhai Xinlun restarted, Jiangyin Huahong, Yizheng Chemical Fiber, Sanfangxiang load increased, and Xinfengming Zhonglei partially reduced production. Downstream losses deepened, inventories were high, and orders were limited, suppressing the demand for staple fibers. The spot price of staple fiber fell all month, and the trend of spot was stronger than that of futures.

Analysts from the business community believe that the market is still evaluating the impact of future crude oil demand prospects and tight supply and other factors on oil prices. It is expected that the crude oil market will remain volatile, and the cost side of polyester staple fiber may remain volatile. The supply and demand of staple fiber are weak in the near future. It is expected that polyester staple fiber will show a weak shock trend in November, but it may have a rebound trend if it is oversold. Pay attention to cost side price change, device restart and downstream orders.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on October 31 was 108.72, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.78% from the peak of 142.64 points (2021-11-01) in the cycle, and up 28.94% from the lowest point of 84.32 points on August 18, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Spot goods: According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market declined slightly in October. At the beginning of the month, the market mainly reported 2043 yuan/ton, and on the 31st, it mainly reported 2011.25 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of about 1.56%. The water treatment manufacturers in Gongyi, Henan, stopped production for about 10 days from the 10th due to environmental protection policy requirements in the early stage of this month; In the last ten days of the year, the construction was resumed, and the inventory was sufficient.

Raw hydrochloric acid: According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose from 166.67 yuan/ton to 186.67 yuan/ton in October. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose slightly this month, and the downstream demand was average. From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly, giving hydrochloric acid some support; Downstream market declined slightly, and downstream manufacturers’ purchasing enthusiasm for hydrochloric acid weakened. According to the analysis, the recent market of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate slightly.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business community, the price of domestic LNG fell by about 18.93% this month: the market price of LNG on October 31 was about 5540 yuan/ton, and the average market price on the first day was 6834 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, due to the transportation obstruction, the demand for downstream replenishment turned weak in the middle of the month, and the upstream shipment pressure was high, so the market fell back. According to the analysis, the current intra market trading and investment are flat, the traffic is blocked under the control of the epidemic situation, and the market supply exceeds the demand. It is expected that domestic LNG prices will continue to fall mainly in the short term under the negative factors.

Future forecast: The economic environment is rosy, and the overall demand is not as good as that of previous years. The water treatment market in 2022 is also not as good as that in 2021. Although the raw material cost is well supported, the downstream demand is weak, the purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and the spot inventory is sufficient. In the future, under the expectation of economic downturn and the impact of public health events, the market is expected to continue to be slightly weak.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of flake caustic soda rose overall in October. The average market price of flake caustic soda at the beginning of the month was 4666.67 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was about 4883.33 yuan/ton. The price rose 4.64%, down 16.17% compared with the same period last year. Now the domestic flake alkali market is consolidating.

Upstream caustic soda

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda fell in October as a whole. At the beginning of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was 1238 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was about 1140 yuan/ton. The price fell 7.92%, and the price rose 33.04% compared with the same period last year. According to the survey data of the business community, the domestic caustic soda price is now down. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1100-1200 yuan/ton. The factory quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda mainstream in Hebei is about 1170-1300 yuan/ton.

Analysts from the business community believe that the price of flake caustic soda market has been consolidated and operated in the near future, maintaining the early trend, and the market trading is relatively moderate. In general, the price of flake caustic soda may be maintained in the short-term or consolidation operation, depending on the downstream market demand.