According to the price monitoring of the business community, the average price of sulfur in East China was 1500.00 yuan/ton on October 8, 4.26% higher than that before the National Day, and the market was stronger.

The downstream sulphuric acid market rose, the market operating rate decreased compared with the previous period, the enterprise quotation increased, the ammonium phosphate market consolidated and operated, and the market procurement followed up as needed. The downstream market was stable and good, and the support for the sulfur market was strengthened. The downstream sulfur procurement was active in Shandong, and the refinery shipment was smooth. The enterprise quotation increased according to its own shipment situation, the port supply was tight and the market was firm, and the industry had a good mentality support, It is expected that the sulfur market in the short term will wait and see the consolidation and operation, and pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyacrylamide commodity index on September 30 was 94.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.23% from the highest point of the cycle, 111.51 (2021-11-03), and up 14.04% from the lowest point, 82.89, on August 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the business community, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market in late September was basically stable, mainly reporting about 15471.43 yuan/ton. The water treatment plants in the main production areas in China had normal production and sufficient inventory in the last ten days, while the downstream demand had little change, the cost of raw materials fell back, and the overall market of polyacrylamide was relatively stable.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business community, the domestic acrylonitrile market continued to be strong in late September. Among them, the domestic market reported 8900 yuan/ton on the 21st and 9870 yuan/ton on the 30th, up only 0.41% this decade. The industrial supply increased slightly in a stable way, but the demand and cost were supported, and the offer of merchants was stable in the early upward phase and later; The analysis shows that, on the one hand, there is still pressure for new production of acrylonitrile in the later stage, and on the other hand, the cost and demand continue to support; Acrylonitrile market is expected to consolidate at a high level in the later period.

Raw acrylic acid: according to the data of the business community, the quotation of acrylic acid in East China in late September decreased slightly from 833.33 yuan/ton to 8500 yuan/ton, down 2.67% this decade. The market is stable and weak, and the cost pressure still exists, but the demand side is flat, and the buying is average, so the early inventory is more digested. With regard to the future market, the cost support still exists, the holidays are approaching, the downstream customers have basically completed their stock preparation, and the market trading atmosphere is stable. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be mainly stable in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the changes in market news.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business community, the market price of LNG rose 1.79% in late September. The average price on the 21st day was 6828 yuan/ton, and the average price on the 30th day was 6950 yuan/ton. Although there were downward fluctuations during this period, the price continued to rise 10.6% from the 23rd to the 28th of this ten day. Near the National Day holiday, due to transportation considerations, a large number of downstream replenishment. There was a strong buying atmosphere on the floor, and the rising trend continued. With the maintenance of the Sino Russian pipeline, the on-site supply is reduced. It is expected that the domestic LNG price trend will continue to rise in the short term.

Future market forecast: Polyacrylamide manufacturers in the main production area are operating normally, with sufficient inventory and stable downstream demand. The logistics of chemicals during the holiday is limited, resulting in a slight concentration of orders in the days before the holiday, but the overall price changes little; It is expected that the demand will remain stable after the festival, and the polyacrylamide market will remain stable mainly in the case of small changes in raw material costs.

Price trend

According to the data from the bulk list of business cooperatives, the POM market fell in September, and the spot prices of various brands fell significantly. As of September 29, the ex factory price reference offer of POM injection molding sample enterprises of the business community was about 13666.67 yuan/ton, up or down by – 15.11% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain. However, the terminal enterprises are in a strong wait-and-see mood, cautious in purchasing, and the market negotiation atmosphere is light. In addition, the domestic methanol market is expected to decline, and the formaldehyde market is expected to decline mainly in the short term.

Upstream formaldehyde market rose, and POM cost side support was strengthened. In terms of industry load, the overall load of domestic POM industry enterprises was basically full this month. At the end of the month, individual enterprises had short maintenance, and the supply of goods was abundant, resulting in accumulation of inventory. There is strong competition on the market, and the manufacturers and midstream customers prefer to reduce the price for shipment. The operating rate of terminal enterprises is generally restricted by profit and other factors, and its position is not high. On the purchasing side, the wait-and-see mood is heavy, buying up rather than buying down, and the overall demand is weak. In addition, in the short term, there is no demand forecast in the downstream, and the load has not risen significantly with the peak plastic consumption season. Traders tend to ship at low prices, and the price is generally depressed. On the market, delivery is mainly small orders. It is difficult for high price goods to be shipped. The merchants only talk about it, and there are many margins.

Future market forecast

Analysts from the business community believe that the decline of the domestic POM market in September has increased, the upstream formaldehyde market has risen, and the POM cost support is fair. The load of POM industry is high, and there is pressure on the supply side. The demand follow-up of downstream enterprises has not improved, and the purchase is mainly scattered. Under the situation that the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to ease, formaldehyde is expected to fall back next month, and POM prices are expected to continue to be weak in the short term.

Price trend of ethylene oxide

According to the data of the business society, the spot price of ethylene oxide in China ran smoothly on September 28, with the average market price of 7500 yuan/ton, which was 16.58% higher than the average market price of 6433.33 yuan/ton on August 23.

Since August, the price of ethylene oxide has been relatively strong, and the domestic ethylene oxide market has been running smoothly in the near future.

Recent fundamentals of ethylene oxide

From the perspective of supply and demand, the supply of ethylene oxide at the supply end has increased in the near future, some of the shutdown devices in the early stage have started to resume production, and some of the devices are expected to restart, so the overall supply is expected to increase before the festival. On the demand side, the market of downstream polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer is weak in the near future, and the stock of raw materials before the festival is less than expected.

From the perspective of cost, the price of upstream raw material ethylene has declined in the near future, and the supporting effect of cost on the price of ethylene oxide has weakened; The price of polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer in the downstream has dropped slightly, and it is sensitive to high priced raw materials. At present, the capacity utilization rate of polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer is about 40%.

Future market forecast

At present, the supply has increased slightly, and the demand is weak. The business community expects that the price of ethylene oxide will be dominated by weak sideways shocks in the short term. In the future, we will wait and see the incremental changes in the supply side.

On September 27, the mainstream quotation range of 1 # tin ingot in the domestic spot tin market was 185500-188500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 187000 yuan/ton, up 4000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.

On the night of the 26th, the US dollar index hit a new 20 year high again and closed at 114.69. The metal market was under general pressure. In the night market, Shanghai Tin rose by 3.37% against the trend. In the morning market of the 27th, Shanghai Tin continued its overnight trend and rose by more than 3%. By the end of the 27th, the main contract of Shanghai Tin closed at 177190 yuan/ton, up 5.07%.

In the spot market, the refinery quoted actively this morning, with a heavy attitude of price fixing. However, as the price rebounded today, the trade market trading was slightly light, and it was generally wait-and-see oriented. When the price was low a few days ago, the stock had been basically completed before the festival, so the market today was generally cold. There is no obvious change in the supply and demand, which is still a pattern of weak supply and demand. In terms of supply, the supply of imported goods increased significantly, the quotation of imported goods in the market increased, and the domestic tin ingot supply was relatively loose as a whole. The overall performance of downstream demand is not outstanding, and procurement on demand is maintained. As the overall inventory of tin is low, it is obviously affected by macro disturbance and capital. The business community expects that the future tin price will still be affected more by macro influence, mainly maintaining a wide range of shocks.