After the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, the domestic EVA market continued to rise, showing a trend of first rising and then stabilizing, with the focus moving upward. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 20166.67 yuan/ton on September 12, and 20766.67 yuan/ton on September 19, with a weekly increase of 2.98%, down 11.88% compared with the same period last year.

As of September 19, EVA factory quotation is as follows:

Product., manufacturer., model., ex factory price

EVA., Yanshan Petrochemical., 18J3., 21000 yuan/ton

EVA., Beijing Organic., Y2022., 19500 yuan/ton

EVA., Yangzi BASF., V5110J., 21800 yuan/ton

This week, the domestic EVA market continued to rise, and the price continued to rise. The increase in the week was mainly concentrated after the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, with a strong trend. After the festival, the ex factory prices of petrochemical enterprises reported continuously high, which brought obvious confidence to the market. In addition, the supply of some bidding goods continued to increase, which was good for the market mentality. The mentality of businessmen was good, and the price went up to a certain extent. However, in terms of demand, although Jinjiu ushered in the peak demand season, the demand for foaming materials did not increase as expected. Most of them were just in need of follow-up. The demand for photovoltaic materials was stable, and there was no change. The wait-and-see mood of the industry was strong, and the market trading atmosphere was general.

After the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, EVA has obviously increased, and then entered the consolidation stage. The current market has obvious positive factors, and the price is relatively firm. However, due to the fact that the increase of terminal demand did not meet the expectation, the downstream was cautious, Duowei kept making up on demand, and the wait-and-see mood was strong, which brought some restraint to the rising market. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic EVA market price will be relatively strong.

Spot price: The spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber rose slightly this week (9.13-9.16). According to the price monitoring of the business community, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber was about 7926 yuan/ton on September 16, up 1.39% from last week and 10.84% from the same period last year.

Futures market: the main force of short fiber futures this week opened at a high level, with a narrow range of concussion and small rise. On Friday, the staple fiber PF futures contract closed at 7508, up 0.56% from the closing price last week. The settlement price is 7470 yuan. This week, the main domestic staple fiber upstream raw material PTA futures fell 0.25% to close at 5668, and the main ethylene glycol futures fell 0.78% to close at 4430.

The price of international crude oil futures fell slightly this week due to the impact of the Federal Reserve’s policy expectation of continuing to raise interest rates aggressively, and US oil fell 1.57% this week (as of 17:05 Beijing time). In the near future, PTA devices continue to be overhauled and shut down to reduce the load. The supply and demand of raw material PX is tight, and the price is firm. Downstream commencement is gradually rising. PTA continues to go to the warehouse, and the spot price is stronger. Affected by the typhoon, the port inventory of ethylene glycol has declined significantly, the operating rate of the downstream traditional peak season has rebounded, the delivery of goods has increased, and the spot price of ethylene glycol has risen slightly. The overall demand for pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn has slightly improved, and the spot transaction has improved compared with the previous period. The overall load of the staple fiber factory has decreased recently, and the supply has decreased. The weaving factory of the downstream yarn factory has turned from the off-season to the peak season. The demand has improved, and the staple fiber cash and futures prices have risen slightly.

In the future, the cost of staple fiber still has strong support. Downstream demand is gradually improving. In terms of spot goods, Yizheng Chemical Fiber has recently reduced production. However, after the new production capacity of Xinfengming is put into operation and some major factories are overhauled, it may restart. The supply is under pressure. The price of staple fiber may fluctuate strongly in the short term. Pay attention to the trend of raw materials and the recovery of downstream orders.

On September 15, the price of aluminum fluoride was strong and temporarily stable

According to the data of the business agency, the aluminum fluoride market was strong and temporarily stable on September 15, and the aluminum fluoride price was strong and temporarily stable. As of September 15, the average price of aluminum fluoride in China was 10775 yuan/ton, up 1.17% from 10650 yuan/ton on September 13 of the previous trading day. On September 14, the aluminum fluoride commodity index was 108.84, up 1.26 points from yesterday, down 25.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 145.12 (2022-01-04), and up 63.03% from the lowest point of 66.76 on October 17, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Key points of analysis

Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid has stabilized, the price of fluorite has risen, and the cost of aluminum fluoride has stabilized; When the power rationing in Sichuan expired, the electrolytic aluminum enterprises started to resume, the downstream electrolytic aluminum prices rose in shock, the cryolite price temporarily stabilized, and the demand for aluminum fluoride recovered. Overall, the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride weakened and the upward momentum remained.

Future market forecast

The rising cost demand is strong and stable for the time being, the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride is weakened, and the upward momentum remains. The aluminum fluoride market is strong and stable in the future.

On September 14, the phenol market in East China was pushed up to 10400-10450 yuan/ton through negotiation, with a daily increase of 350-400 yuan/ton. Other mainstream phenol trading and investment regions also followed suit, with an increase of 250-300 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the national phenol market offered 10112 yuan/ton on September 13, and 10512.5 yuan/ton on September 14, up nearly 4% a day. The trend chart of the national phenol market and the offer of the mainstream regions and major factories are as follows:

The increase in the factory’s billing price helped the phenol market rise

Lihua Yiweiyuan took the lead in raising 200 yuan to 10500 yuan/ton in the morning opening. Subsequently, Sinopec’s phenol price in East China was raised by 200 yuan/ton to 10400 yuan/ton, and Sinopec’s phenol price in North China was raised by 200 yuan/ton to 10400-10500 yuan/ton. Subsequently, factories in Northeast and South China also adjusted one after another, and factories raised their invoicing prices to help the market. The suppliers’ offers closely followed the previous banks, and due to the continuous tension in the current supply side, most traders offered higher prices on the invoicing prices, accompanied by higher prices, The participation of intermediate traders was improved, and the atmosphere of the on-site discussion was very good. It is reported that the supply of goods in Shandong is mainly for regular customers, and the supply is very tight.

Under the influence of typhoon weather, the transportation in mainstream areas is limited and phenol is pushed up

Since September, the supply of phenol has been tight, and the operating rate of domestic phenol plants is less than 80%. Compared with the long-term operating rate of 95%, the current operating rate of the industry is at a relatively low level. Therefore, since September, the supply of phenol has remained tight, and the market has continued to rise. Today, the typhoon weather in East China has affected the cargo ships and the arrival time. It is difficult to supplement the source of imported goods. The cargo holders are reluctant to sell obviously. The offer has pushed up, and the focus of negotiation has also risen along the trend. However, the daily surge is bound to be limited in the downstream, and the actual orders in the market just need to be inquired are generally followed up.

The dual raw material market is strong, and the cost support provides good peripheral conditions for phenol to rise

In terms of cost, the propylene market price continued to rise. The transaction price in Shandong was 7400 yuan/ton, and the reference price in East China was 7250-7350 yuan/ton. Although the international crude oil and polypropylene futures prices fell, the pressure on the controllable holders of propylene supply side was not great, and the offer was intended to continue to push up. The supply of goods in East China was limited, and the prices of some areas affected by the typhoon were up, so the market was active. Downstream factories mostly purchase on demand, and there are few deals at high prices. The actual orders on the market are acceptable.

The pure benzene market in Shandong Province rose by a narrow margin, and the negotiation price was 7860-7950 yuan/ton. The downstream was following up normally, and the negotiation atmosphere was good.

From the downstream perspective, affected by the continued strong growth of phenol ketone dual raw materials, the downstream cost pressure led to a narrow upward trend. The market offer of bisphenol A was 13500 yuan/ton, which also showed a phased upward trend in September.

From the perspective of the business community, the short-term phenol market supply is still tight, and at this time some of the holders are more cautious in shipping, but whether the market can continue to rise is ultimately controlled by the demand side. Today’s rise has not been digested by the downstream, but the market inquiries are active, and the participation of intermediate traders is increasing. It is expected that the phenol market will continue to operate at a high level tomorrow, or continue to explore the upward trend. It is estimated that the reference price of the phenol market in East China is about 10500 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol increased slightly this week. This week, the average price of neopentyl glycol in the mainstream domestic market rose from 9966.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 10433.33 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 4.68%. On September 12, the neopentyl glycol commodity index was 50.28, which was the same as yesterday, down 51.47% from the highest point 103.61 in the cycle (September 22, 2021), and up 7.92% from the lowest point 46.59 on August 20, 2022. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now) (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of neopentyl glycol mainstream manufacturers increased: the weekend sales price of Jinan aochen Wanhua neopentyl glycol was 11000 yuan / ton, which increased by 2000 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The weekend sales price of zibode synthetic Feng neopentyl glycol was 10500 yuan / ton, an increase of 300 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. The selling price of Kemike Shandong Neopentyl Glycol at the weekend was 9800 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market rose from 7833.33 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7966.67 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 1.70%. The upstream raw material market price rose slightly, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future forecast

The market trend of neopentyl glycol in mid September was mainly up due to slight shock. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market rose slightly, with good cost support. The downstream paint market was in general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was weakened. Analysts of neopentyl glycol of business club believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the market price of neopentyl glycol in the short term may rise slightly.