1、 Trend analysis
According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices first fell and then rose in April. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 80023.33 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price slightly fell to 78158.33 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 2.33% and a year-on-year decline of 2.31%.
According to the Business Society’s current chart, copper spot prices in April were mostly higher than futures prices, with the main contract being the expected price two months later, and the expected future price may be under pressure.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory fluctuated and decreased in April. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 203450 tons, a decrease of 4.61% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, the shift in Trump’s tariff policy has triggered a chain reaction in the market, and the easing of trade tensions has cooled the controversy over the independence of the Federal Reserve. However, the Beige Book warns that tariff uncertainty still threatens the regional economic outlook. The Markit data for April showed that the manufacturing PMI unexpectedly expanded (50.7), while the service and composite PMI were lower than expected but still in the expansion range, and the current macro uncertainty continues.
Supply side: The import volume of copper ore sand and concentrate in March was 2393926.47 tons, an increase of 9.67% month on month and 2.80% year-on-year. The import volume of scrap copper (copper scrap) in China in March 2025 was 189722.465 tons, a decrease of 1.87% month on month and 13.01% year-on-year. The import volume of refined copper in China in March 2025 was 354275.469 tons, an increase of 16.11% month on month and 11.80% year-on-year.
The Antamina copper zinc mine accident in Peru has raised supply concerns. As one of the world’s largest copper zinc mines, the mine produces over 400000 tons of copper annually, accounting for a significant proportion of China’s imported copper mines.
Downstream: Household air conditioning production in March increased by 16% year-on-year. State Grid’s power grid investment in the first quarter increased by 27.7% year-on-year. In March, passenger cars continued to show a good trend, with both production and sales increasing on a month on month basis, reaching 2.5745 million and 2.4682 million units respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 14.43% and 10.37%, respectively. In March, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to maintain rapid growth, with a month on month increase in market penetration rate, reaching 1.277 million and 1.237 million units respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 47.93%+ 40.11%.
According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, in the past five years, copper prices have mostly fallen in May.
In summary, the sudden major accident at Antamira, the largest copper mine in Peru, has led to a complete shutdown, coupled with the continuous decline of domestic concentrate TC to below -30 US dollars, increasing pressure on refineries to reduce production. The resilience of domestic demand still exists, and the peak season for power grid delivery and the trade in policy are driving demand for air conditioning and battery foil; The recent rebound in spot consumption has driven the continuous depletion of electrolytic copper inventory, but as the traditional peak season draws to a close, photovoltaic installation orders may decrease, coupled with uncertainty in tariff policies, and upward pressure on copper prices is gradually emerging.

1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market fluctuated within the range this week (4.21-25), and the price performance was weak. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4756 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.90% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
This week, PVC prices have mainly declined, with most manufacturers making price adjustments within the week, with a range of around 50 yuan/ton. The market generally followed the decline, and dealers reported a decrease in offers. The main reason is the lack of favorable fundamentals, with crude oil prices fluctuating at low levels and the futures market performing poorly. PVC spot goods are affected by it, and prices continue to be weak. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the spot PVC market has shown loose supply and demand, and most manufacturers’ equipment is operating stably. The supply pressure has not changed much, dealers’ offers are generally weak, downstream demand performance is insufficient, downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, inquiry and procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market atmosphere is sluggish. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4670-4800 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, this week (4.21-25), the calcium carbide market remained stable. According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the fluctuation range this week was 0. The price is still relatively low, with limited support for PVC.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the sluggish performance of the PVC spot market is mainly due to low downstream operating rates, insufficient demand, and difficulty in improving the supply-demand pattern in the short term. It is expected that PVC prices will continue to maintain a range adjustment pattern next week.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aggregated MDI market has recently stopped falling and risen. Currently, the mainstream price for Shanghai goods (44V20, M20S, 5005) is 14800-15000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price for domestic goods (PM200) is 15200-15800 yuan/ton. Boosted by news of major manufacturers’ lockdowns, sales restrictions, and maintenance plans, the supply side actively pushed up prices, downstream sentiment entered the market, and intermediaries bought inventory at low prices. The current high import costs and tight supply are expected to lead to a strong performance of the aggregated MDI market in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been weak and volatile recently (4.10-4.22). As of April 22, the spot rubber market in China was around 14350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.70% from 14598 yuan/ton on the 10th. The high point during the cycle was 14735 yuan/ton, and the low point was 14310 yuan/ton. Currently, influenced by international trade news, the atmosphere in the domestic rubber market is relatively weak. The price of raw materials has slightly decreased; Domestic Tianjiao Port inventory has slightly decreased compared to the previous period, but overall remains at a high level; The downstream construction is basically stable; The Shanghai rubber market is weak and volatile, while the natural rubber spot market is fluctuating and adjusting.
In the second quarter, the overseas main production areas are expected to gradually increase production volume, coupled with the current good weather and high price stimulation, rubber farmers are cutting rubber smoothly, and rubber prices are difficult to stabilize at high levels; At the same time, Yunnan Province in China has conducted trial cutting, and it is expected that the supply of rubber raw materials at home and abroad will increase, leading to a decrease in the price of natural rubber raw materials. As of April 22, the price of Thai glue was 56.20 baht/kg, slightly lower than the 57.50 baht/kg on April 10.
Natural rubber inventory has slightly decreased, but overall it remains at a high level. As of April 20, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 612500 tons, a decrease of 7000 tons or 1.08% compared to the previous period.
Supply and demand side: Downstream tire production is generally stable, but the international trade situation has an impact, resulting in a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the natural rubber market and light inquiries. As of April 20th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 7.8%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.5% of the load.
Market forecast: When domestic and international raw material prices fall from high levels, coupled with the unclear international trade situation and weak downstream inquiries, the support for natural rubber will weaken, and the inventory of Tianjiao Port will still be at a high level; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will continue its weak consolidation trend in the later stage.

Since mid April, the domestic ABS market has continued to be weak, with most grades experiencing a decrease in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 21st, the average price of ABS sample products was 11000 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -2.22% compared to the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: In mid April, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry remained stable with small fluctuations, and the overall load level was 67%, which was basically the same as the first ten days. The weekly average production has returned to around 120000 tons, but it is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises has risen above 200000 tons. In addition, there are relatively few maintenance plans in the industry in the short term, and there are still companies returning to production capacity in the near future. The on-site supply is very abundant, and the supply-demand contradiction is profound. Overall, there has been no improvement in the supply side’s support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: Since mid April, the upstream three materials of ABS have shown signs of fatigue, providing poor support for the cost side of ABS. At the beginning of the month, some units in the East China and Shandong regions reduced their load or underwent maintenance, resulting in a periodic decrease in supply of acrylonitrile. The inventory pressure in the industry has decreased. However, the production and discharge of the acrylonitrile unit at Yulong Petrochemical in mid month hindered the upward trend of the domestic acrylonitrile market. The consumer end has weakened in stages, with prices falling back, and the market as a whole is cautiously observing.
The domestic butadiene market has experienced a significant decline in recent times. Under the influence of international news such as equivalent tariffs, the crude oil and synthetic rubber futures markets have fallen widely, and the cost and demand of the butadiene market have been greatly affected, dragging down the mentality of the spot market. The port arrival situation on the supply side is good, but the overall supply of butadiene is relatively loose. Overall, it is expected that there may not be a positive market trend in the short term.
Styrene is also subject to international news such as equivalent tariffs, and the market has experienced a significant decline in the early stage. Recently, due to the recovery of the pure benzene market and the tight balance between supply and demand of styrene, prices have shown a trend of stabilizing and oscillating. In April, there were many centralized inspections of styrene, and the supply side remained tight. Downstream 3S factories had high inventory and limited production. However, in the uncertain market situation of raw materials, the risk of a decline in styrene in the future cannot be ruled out.
On the demand side: As we enter late April, the load of downstream ABS factories in the ABS terminal is generally flat, and the purchasing logic tends to buy at the bottom and replenish orders for urgent needs. The confidence in the market is weak, and the purchasing atmosphere is more cautious. With the exhaustion of essential orders, new order deliveries have noticeably weakened, and the flow of goods has returned slowly. Overall, the demand side has poor support for the ABS market.
Future forecast
Recently, the domestic ABS market has been weak and difficult to change. The upstream three materials are weakly moving, which provides poor comprehensive support for the cost side of ABS. The load of the ABS polymerization plant remains stable with little fluctuation, and there has been no improvement in demand side consumption. Business analysts believe that ABS has fallen to near cost price, and the market has long had strong supply and weak demand. Coupled with the impact of international news such as equivalent tariffs, pessimistic expectations for the future are biased. The bullish trend within the market is hard to find, and there is still a possibility that the market may continue to decline in the short term.