1、 Core viewpoint
According to the latest market data in early February 2026, the Chinese liquefied gas market, especially the Shandong market, which is an important production and consumption area, is clearly showing a core pattern of “strong outside and weak inside, under pressure from top to bottom”. Despite the rigid support of high international costs, the weak fundamentals in the domestic market have led to a lack of market momentum. Since the end of 2025, the export price of civilian gas in Shandong has shown a fluctuating downward trend, and the increase in refinery production is difficult to obtain market response. Terminal price push has also continued to encounter obstacles. As of February 3rd, the benchmark price of liquefied gas in Shengyi Society was 4355.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.3% compared to the beginning of this month (4412.50 yuan/ton).
2、 In depth analysis of price trends: from “strong support” to “weak reality”
From November 2025 to mid January 2026, the export price (transportation) of civilian gas in Shandong experienced a period of high stalemate. The price fluctuates narrowly within the range of 4500-4600 yuan/ton. During this period, the main logic of the market was “cost driven”. Taking the February 2026 Saudi CP (contract price) as an example, propane was set at $545/ton and butane was set at $540/ton, with landed costs far exceeding the domestic selling price at that time, forming a solid “price floor” and effectively suppressing the potential for deep decline.
However, the turning point occurred in late January. Starting from January 24th, the price has embarked on a smooth downward spiral. As of February 3rd, the price has fallen from its recent high to the 4300 yuan/ton platform, with the largest drop in the range approaching 6%. This trend completely breaks the balance under cost support, indicating that the dominant force of weak domestic demand has overwhelmed high cost support, and the market has entered the “weak reality” pricing stage.
3、 Market pressure: comprehensive analysis of multiple factors
Some refineries must maintain a certain operating load during the Spring Festival period to ensure the smooth operation of their facilities, resulting in the continuous production of liquefied gas as a byproduct and the formation of a stable supply flow. Faced with the expectation of logistics stagnation caused by the Spring Festival holiday, refineries have a strong demand for inventory clearance and risk avoidance, and tend to increase shipments before the holiday to reduce inventory pressure. However, the current market’s carrying capacity is seriously insufficient, and this “increment” directly translates into downward pressure on prices.
The main obstacle to price pushing at import ports lies in the dilemma of being caught in a “pincer attack”: on the one hand, the high international import costs put enormous pressure on them to bear losses, and price pushing is an internal urgent need to turn losses around; On the other hand, domestic demand is weak – the main downstream PDH industry strongly resists high priced raw materials due to its own losses, while the civilian market is bearish on the future and only purchases on demand, resulting in a “price but no market” after the port price increases. At the same time, the continuously declining domestic gas prices have formed significant comparative advantages and substitution pressure, further locking in the pricing space of the port. Therefore, the fundamental reason for the current obstruction of pricing actions is the combined effect of cost rigidity, demand elasticity, and substitution competition.
4、 Future prospects
In the short term, the market will enter the Spring Festival mode, with trading tending to be light and prices expected to be mainly weakly consolidated. In the last week before the holiday, it is not ruled out that some downstream companies may carry out a final round of small-scale inventory replenishment to ensure holiday usage, or form a weak support for prices, but it is difficult to change the overall decline.
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