On January 21, the natural rubber commodity index was 40.36, down 0.83 points from yesterday, down 59.64% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 47.95% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber since January 2022

Monitoring shows that since this month (January 21), domestic natural rubber (standard I) in China’s East China market has continued to fluctuate and decline, with the mainstream report of about 13748 yuan / ton on the 1st and about 13610 yuan / ton on the 21st, a decrease of 1%. During this period, the highest price point was 14020 yuan / ton on the 12th, and the lowest price point was 13610 yuan / ton on the 21st, with a maximum amplitude of 2.92%.

According to macro analysis, the international crude oil price fell slightly on January 20. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $85.55/barrel, down US $0.25, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $88.38/barrel, down US $0.06. Previously, affected by tight supply, oil prices continued to rise, hitting a seven-year high. The U.S. crude oil inventory data released one day later showed that the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory increased last week since November last year, and the crude oil was under short-term pressure. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its oil growth forecast for 2022. Market participants generally expect that the mutated virus Omicron has limited impact on the global economic recovery, oil supply is still tight, investors believe that the Fed is not as good as the expected hawks, and oil prices continue to rebound.

According to the industrial analysis, in foreign production areas, Vietnam and northern Thailand have entered the production reduction period since January, while southern Thailand is still in the high production period, and the output of the main production areas in Thailand will gradually decline by the end of the month; Basically all cutting in our domestic area has been stopped. It is reported that the shipping situation has eased slightly recently, the amount of glue arriving at Hong Kong has increased, and land transportation has been blocked in many places due to the overall impact of the epidemic, spring transportation and Winter Olympic Games; On the demand side, more and more enterprises are entering the holiday mode. In addition to the requirements of environmental protection and power restriction, the downstream operating rate has decreased significantly, the tire inventory is high, and the rubber procurement demand continues to be weak.

Figure 3: Weekly K histogram of natural rubber market since January 2022

Figure 4: annual comparison of domestic mainstream trend of natural rubber from 2019 to 2022

Future forecast: in the production and supply reduction season, China’s inventory, especially in Qingdao, has increased significantly and the outbound volume has decreased, resulting in a rapid increase in inventory, while the procurement demand is obviously weak. It is expected that the natural rubber market will continue to fluctuate and weaken around the Spring Festival.

Trade name: polybutadiene rubber BR9000

Latest price (January 20): 13510 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business society, as of January 20, the domestic price of CIS polybutadiene rubber was 13510 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.37% over the previous day; The ex factory price of the main suppliers of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was stable, the ex factory price of Daqing and Jinzhou Shunding of CNPC Northeast sales company was 13400 yuan / ton, and the price of northeast warehouse was increased; The downstream pre holiday goods preparation continued, coupled with the rebound in the price of raw butadiene, and the cost increased. The offer of merchants increased slightly, and the Qilu, Dushanzi and Zhenhua Shunding markets in East China reported 12900 ~ 13750 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: the price of raw butadiene rebounds, and the downstream pre holiday stock is not finished. It is expected that the CIS polybutadiene rubber market will be slightly consolidated before the holiday.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (January 19): 18000 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, the price of refrigerant R22 was temporarily stable on January 19, unchanged from the previous day. Recently, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable, the high level of chloroform remains stable, and the cost support is OK. However, R22 domestic and foreign demand is weak, the export is not smooth, the domestic demand is poor, and the shipping atmosphere of refrigerant enterprises is general. Most of them are adjusted according to the shipping, and the price rises and falls. Up to now, the price of raw hydrofluoric acid is about 11760 yuan / ton, the price of chloroform is about 4700 yuan / ton, and the market quotation of R22 remains at 16000-17000 yuan / ton, which makes profits.

R22 market is expected to run stably for the time being.

Trade name: sulfur

Latest price (January 18): 2130.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of sulfur in East China today increased by 1.59% compared with yesterday, and the domestic sulfur market was sorted upward. Refineries in various regions adjusted their quotation according to their shipment and inventory, with different increases compared with the previous working day. The price of solid sulfur in Shandong increased by 30-50 yuan / ton, and the price of liquid sulfur increased by 80 yuan / ton; In East China, the fixed sulfur is increased by 20 yuan / ton, and the liquid sulfur is increased by 50-70 yuan / ton; In North China, sulfur fixation was increased by 30 yuan / ton and liquid sulfur by 20 yuan / ton. There is no inventory pressure in domestic refineries, the downstream sulfuric acid market is rising, the demand for sulfur is increasing, the liquid sulfur market is improving, and the price increases greatly; The demand for sulfur in downstream phosphate fertilizer is acceptable, the shipment of enterprises is smooth, and the winter fertilizer storage market is progressing steadily, promoting the rise of sulfur fixation price.

Future forecast: the future sulfur market is strong, and the downstream follow-up shall be paid attention to.

According to the data of business agency, as of January 16, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 5270.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up 0.57% from 5240.00 yuan / ton on January 1.

On January 16, the fuel oil commodity index was 106.73, unchanged from yesterday, down 14.17% from the highest point 124.35 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 131.62% from the lowest point 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The rising price of domestic marine oil raw materials supports the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of January 16, the self raised low sulfur quotation of 180 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan area was 5200 yuan / ton, and the self raised low sulfur quotation of 120 CST fuel oil was 5300 yuan / ton; The quotation of low sulfur for 180 CST fuel oil in Shanghai is 5350 yuan / ton, and the quotation of low sulfur for 120 CST fuel oil is 5450 yuan / ton.

International crude oil prices have risen. Although the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is still severe, the symptoms seem to be milder than the previous variants, and the trend of oil prices has risen; In addition, the production increase plan of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) was implemented, the relatively conservative policy was in line with market expectations, and the oil price was supported. Some geopolitical factors such as the interruption of supply in Libya, the unrest in Kazakhstan and some political factors affect the supply expectation, and the international oil price has received some support.

Singapore’s increased fuel stocks have limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of January 12, Singapore’s fuel inventory increased by 1.285 million barrels to a seven week high of 22.34 million barrels. Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory increased by 590000 barrels, reaching a three-and-a-half month high of 13.652 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate stocks fell 976000 barrels to an 8-year low of 7.17 million barrels.

Future forecast: the rising price of raw materials in the ship fuel market supports the ship fuel market, but the terminal procurement is light, the transaction just needs to be purchased, and it is mainly wait-and-see. Today, the price of fuel oil 180CST rose and fell. The low sulfur market price of fuel oil 180CST was about 5200-5350 yuan / ton, and the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 120cst was about 5300-5450 yuan / ton. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will remain stable in the near future.