According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 1st to 4th (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port quotations fell from 2253 yuan/ton to around 2271 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.81% during the period, a month on month decrease of 4.55%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.78%. The supply continues to increase, and the accumulation of enterprise inventory has led to price reductions and order taking. Although downstream profits have recovered, the improvement is not significant at the moment, and the domestic methanol market is weak and declining.
As of the close on September 5th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2601, opened at 2381 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2424 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2378 yuan/ton. It closed at 2415 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 35 yuan/ton or 1.47% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 684742 lots, the position is 777813, and the daily increase is -24180.
On the cost side, coal supply has rebounded, demand has fallen seasonally, terminal demand for replenishment has increased, and prices have fluctuated narrowly, providing limited support for methanol prices. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
On the demand side, glacial acetic acid: The acetic acid industry in Henan Province is operating at a low level. Formaldehyde: The capacity utilization rate of the formaldehyde industry in Henan Province remains at 51.44%, and the operating load remains stable. Dimethyl ether: The operating load of the dimethyl ether industry in Henan has decreased month on month. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the impact on methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, the overall recovery of the equipment exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of September 4th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 321.5-322.5 US dollars/ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 94-95 cents per gallon; The closing price of the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 292.5-293.5 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton.
In the future market forecast, multiple factors such as the adjustment of upstream and downstream purchase and sales rhythms, and fluctuations in freight rates will intertwine, leading to frequent fluctuations in methanol spot market prices. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly experience fluctuations and consolidation.
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