After the Spring Festival, the domestic epoxy propane market experienced a weak decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 5th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8050.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.62% compared to the beginning of this month (8100.00 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: The production of epichlorohydrin has increased, and some factories are facing inventory pressure, resulting in a slight decrease in prices.

Raw material end: The market for liquid chloropropene on the raw material end is temporarily stable. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 4th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6798.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.37% compared to the beginning of this month (6823.25 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: After the holiday, downstream urgent replenishment is the main focus, with limited new orders and sluggish actual market transactions. It is expected that there will be no significant improvement in the demand for epichlorohydrin in the near future.

Market forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that with the restart and recovery of enterprise equipment, epoxy propane production has increased, and some factories are under pressure from inventory. Downstream demand side procurement is cautious and lacks follow-up, and there is a strong wait-and-see mentality. It is expected that the epoxy propane market will mainly consolidate weakly, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 24th, the average price of acetic acid was 2950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton compared to the acetic acid price of 3030 yuan/ton on January 20th, a decrease of 2.64%, and a decrease of 0.67% compared to the beginning of the month.

This week, the acetic acid market has been running weakly, with fluctuating quotes from companies. On the supply side, the utilization rate of domestic production capacity remains high, factory inventory is under pressure, and downstream pre holiday stocking is gradually coming to an end. The enthusiasm for entering the market has weakened, and the trading atmosphere in the market is light. Among them, shipments in Shandong and North China regions are poor, and the transaction center of the acetic acid market has shifted downwards.

As of January 24th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ On January 20th/ On January 24th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 0

North China region/ 2865 yuan/ton/ 2835 yuan/ton/ -30

Shandong region/ 2910 yuan/ton/ 2860 yuan/ton/ -50

Jiangsu region/ 2775 yuan/ton/ 2800 yuan/ton/ +25

Zhejiang region/ 2925 yuan/ton/ 2925 yuan/ton/ 0

The upstream methanol market is consolidating weakly. From January 20th to 24th, the average price in the domestic market decreased from 2659 yuan/ton to 2635 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 0.90%. The domestic methanol market first fell and then rose. Downstream pre holiday stocking was poor, market buying was weak, production enterprises offered more discounts for shipments, methanol prices continued to decline, and later external prices remained stable. Negative factors weakened, and domestic methanol market prices rebounded slightly.

The downstream acetic anhydride market saw a slight increase, with an average ex factory price of 5097.50 yuan/ton on January 24th, an increase of 0.30% compared to the price of 5082.50 yuan/ton on January 20th. The upstream acetic acid market is fluctuating, with average cost of acetic anhydride. Downstream pre holiday stocking is still acceptable, and the market trading atmosphere is good. Acetic anhydride prices are consolidating and rising.

Market forecast: Business Society’s acetic acid analyst believes that the current utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity is high, the market supply is sufficient, and downstream purchases before and after the holiday have been basically completed. Actual transactions are limited, and the market mentality is mainly wait-and-see. Under the performance of supply and demand, it is expected that the acetic acid market will be weakly consolidated after the holiday, and downstream follow-up will be closely monitored in the future.

This week (1.18-1.24), the nickel market did not continue its upward trend and was under pressure to decline. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, on January 24th, spot nickel was reported at 124516 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.53%.

Macro level: On January 21st, Trump stated that the US government is discussing imposing a 10% tariff on goods imported from China starting from February 1st, and previously stated that a 25% tariff may be imposed on Mexico and Canada starting from February 1st. It also promised to impose tariffs on European imported goods, but did not provide more details. The US dollar index remains above 108, putting pressure on non-ferrous metals.

Supply side: The Secretary General of APNI Indonesia stated that the total approved nickel ore mining work plan and budget (RKAB) for 2025 is 298.49 million tons. Currently, Indonesia’s nickel ore production accounts for 63% of the global total, which will lead to oversupply in the global nickel market. Regarding the previously discussed issue of reducing production, it was stated that the production cuts may be targeted at newly established enterprises. The Indonesian government is not implementing a significant contraction in the supply side, and the pattern of nickel surplus is difficult to change.

The surplus of pure nickel continues, and domestic and foreign inventories continue to accumulate. On January 24th, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 28320 tons, an increase of 762 tons during the week; On January 23rd, LME nickel inventory was 173064 tons, an increase of 5070 tons during the week.

On the demand side: At the end of the year, the market trading heat gradually weakened, demand weakened, stainless steel continued to accumulate inventory, and the market fluctuated at a low level. Attention should be paid to the resumption of work after the holiday.

Market forecast: oversupply, inventory pressure, weakened demand during the Spring Festival, and expected nickel prices to fluctuate in the low range.

Aluminum prices strengthen in January

Aluminum prices strengthened overall in January, but as the Spring Festival approaches, the trend of aluminum prices begins to turn around. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 23, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20213.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.17% from the market average price of 19783.33 yuan/ton on January 1, and a decrease of 0.62% from yesterday.

Recently, aluminum prices have reversed the decline of the past two months and stopped falling. The driving force behind the slight rebound in aluminum prices is mainly due to the following factors:

Factor 1: Driven by Lunan Aluminum;

1. The EU may implement a ban on Russian aluminum, and the news that Russian aluminum will once again face Western sanctions has raised expectations of increased demand for LME spot goods.

2. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, the information that may affect the natural gas facilities, together with the decline of natural gas inventory in Europe in the severe winter, has significantly promoted the rise of natural gas prices in Europe. The rise in energy prices has pushed up the cost of aluminum ingots in Europe. Supporting the price of London aluminum

Factor 2: Inflation expectations driven by the Trump effect;

On a macro level, Trump’s inauguration within this month has intensified uncertainty in policy interpretation. The domestic tax cuts and external tax increases advocated by Trump have pushed up the prices of imported goods and increased market concerns about re inflation.

Factor 3: In the trend of domestic aluminum ingot destocking:

Aluminum ingot inventory maintains a trend of depletion, and the rate of depletion far exceeds expectations. According to data, as of January 23, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in mainstream areas of China was 459000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons from 469000 tons on January 2.

Reasons for weak upward momentum

Although aluminum prices rose in January due to the combined effects of the above factors, the sustainability of continuing to rise is weak.

Considering domestic supply and demand factors, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is currently maintained at a high level, and the operating rate remains above 95%. Although the current inventory data of aluminum ingots is relatively small, there is a strong expectation of a month on month decrease in the aluminum water ratio with the arrival of the Spring Festival. The seasonal accumulation effect of aluminum ingots is obvious, and there is a strong expectation of pressure on the supply side of aluminum ingots. On the other hand, on the demand side, it is common knowledge that the downstream operating rate will decrease during the Spring Festival holiday. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises continues to decline month on month, and the off-season for market demand is approaching.

From a cost perspective, the price of raw material alumina has been significantly declining recently. The strong support on the cost side in the early stage has weakened, and the profits of electrolytic aluminum plants are gradually recovering. The expectation of losses and production cuts in the early stage of aluminum plants has weakened.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (1.13-1.17), with an average market price of 252110 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 249370 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.09%.

This week, tin prices have slightly fallen, mainly due to the basic end of pre holiday stocking in downstream China, which makes it difficult to support tin prices. The transition period of the US administration is characterized by significant macro uncertainty.

Fundamentally, there is currently no significant contradiction, and tin prices are greatly affected by the market this week. Domestic tin mines are still in a tense state, with a slight decrease in smelting and production scheduling.

On the supply and demand side, smelting enterprises insist on high prices before the holiday, with limited shipment volume. Downstream enterprises have low purchasing sentiment and reduced trading volume. Downstream remains price sensitive, with tin prices trending upwards recently and downstream sentiment weakening.

Based on comprehensive analysis, as the end of the year approaches, logistics and most downstream enterprises enter holiday mode, and it is expected that the market will continue to remain sluggish. Tin prices are unlikely to rebound significantly in the short term and are expected to be mainly volatile.