Cobalt prices have risen sharply this week
According to the Commodity Cobalt Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the cobalt price on September 26th was 309300 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 12.47% compared to the cobalt price of 275000 yuan/ton on September 21st. The Democratic Republic of Congo has introduced a quota system, leading to an expected shortage of cobalt supply in the international market and a significant increase in cobalt prices.
Congo introduces quota system
The Strategic Mineral Market Supervision and Control Authority of the Democratic Republic of Congo announced on the 21st that the country will end the cobalt export ban implemented since February this year from October 15th, and will implement an export quota system on October 16th until further notice. For the remainder of this year, mining companies in the Democratic Republic of Congo will be allowed to export over 18000 tons of cobalt, with a maximum export volume of 96600 tons per year in 2026 and 2027. The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo has implemented a cobalt export quota system, resulting in a significant reduction in supply to the cobalt market in the country.
Expected shortage of supply in cobalt market
In the cobalt export quota system of the Democratic Republic of Congo, mining companies will be allowed to export over 18000 tons of cobalt from October to December 2025, with a maximum annual export volume of 96600 tons in 2026 and 2027. Compared to the cobalt export volume of nearly 250000 tons in 2024, the annual quota for 2026 is less than 40% of the production in 2024. The cobalt market in the Democratic Republic of Congo accounts for more than 70% of the global cobalt market supply. The quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo will lead to a shortage of cobalt market supply. Although cobalt projects in countries such as Indonesia and Australia have made up for some of the cobalt market supply shortage, their increased production capacity is far from enough to fill the supply gap in the Democratic Republic of Congo. It is expected that the global cobalt supply will face an annual shortfall of 50000 tons from 2026 to 2027.
Overview and Prospect
According to data analysts from Shengyi Society, the Democratic Republic of Congo has confirmed the introduction of an export quota system, and the production of cobalt projects in countries such as Indonesia and Australia continues to increase, making up for the shortage of cobalt market supply. However, overall, the expected shortage of cobalt market supply in the next three years is still high, and the driving force for cobalt price increase is increasing. The rise in cobalt prices will stimulate the market to seek alternatives. The vigorous promotion of cobalt recycling projects will make up for the shortage in the cobalt market, and new batteries will be launched in the market, which will seize the demand in the cobalt market in the future. Overall, there will be a shortage of supply in the cobalt market in the next two years, with a significant increase in cobalt prices. However, it is still uncertain whether cobalt prices can continue to rise. With the promotion of cobalt recycling and the construction of new cobalt projects in other countries, the shortage in the cobalt market may not meet expectations. The promotion and launch of new batteries will seize the demand in the cobalt market, and the overall supply-demand imbalance in the cobalt market may not meet expectations. The risk of overheating in the cobalt market is increasing as cobalt prices rise to 350000 yuan/ton, and caution is highest.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of polyester staple fiber first fell and then rose this week (September 22-26). As of September 26, the average market price of polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6441 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.01% from the beginning of the week.
The continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the international crude oil market triggered potential supply risks, which superimposed the decline of the US commercial crude oil inventory and the rise of international oil prices. As of September 25th, the settlement price of the November WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $64.98 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $68.58 per barrel.
As of September 26th, the average market price of PTA in East China was 4639 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.28% from the beginning of the week. At the beginning of the week, due to the restart of some facilities and the weakening of crude oil prices, the center of gravity of PTA prices shifted downwards. During the week, with the rebound of oil prices, the recovery of commodity sentiment, and the increase in downstream pre holiday stocking demand, the trend of PTA has rebounded.
The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream yarn factories has rebounded, and the upcoming double holiday is approaching. The factories have a certain demand for stocking up, and the market transaction atmosphere has improved. New orders have slightly improved, and finished product inventory has declined. The traditional market has seen some improvement in peak season orders, with some support from short-term demand. However, the speed of destocking is relatively slow, and the sustainability needs to be observed. The expectation of new orders and load recovery in the future is limited.
Business analysts believe that the current peak season for traditional fuel consumption in the United States is coming to an end, and supply side risks have not been eliminated, with international oil prices mainly fluctuating and adjusting in the short term. Moreover, the expected increase in supply and inventory of PX and PTA is insufficient in terms of cost support. The demand side is improving in stages, but we still need to pay attention to the sustainability of the improvement in terminal order acceptance. Overall, it is expected that the price of polyester staple fibers will maintain a volatile pattern.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province fell this week (9.19-9.24), with an average market price of 17025 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 17000 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.15%.
The magnesium ingot market has experienced fluctuations this week, with prices showing a downward trend compared to the middle of last week. Affected by the fine-tuning of supply and demand relations and market sentiment, the actual transaction price center has slightly shifted downwards, and the overall market has shown a stable to weak operating characteristic.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, in the current market environment, there is a stalemate between supply and demand. On the supply side, although occasional low-priced goods flow into the market, causing brief attention, overall, there has not been a significant shortage of market supply.
In terms of demand, the current market mainly presents the characteristic of rigid demand for replenishing inventory, and the enterprise side shows a clear wait-and-see attitude. Not only has the frequency of active inquiries significantly decreased, but the actual procurement order cycle has also been extended, and the overall market transaction activity continues to weaken.
Raw material end
Compared to last week, there has been a slight increase in the price of ferrosilicon. At present, the market situation of ferrosilicon presents a situation of mixed long and short factors, with overall stable operation and price fluctuations within the range. The market situation of Lantan first showed a strong trend, and then temporarily stabilized. On the supply side, production capacity has slightly decreased and inventory is at a low level, resulting in tight supply; At the same time, rigid procurement on the demand side provides strong support, keeping the prices of small and medium-sized materials and coke surfaces firm. The upward trend of the coal market has weakened due to the weakening of downstream demand, and some coal mines have experienced slight price reductions.
comprehensive analysis
The current magnesium market is in a state of mutual game between cost support and weak demand. The high cost of upstream raw materials provides strong support for magnesium prices, but the sustained low demand in downstream industries restricts the upward space of prices, leading to a dilemma between rising and falling magnesium prices. As a result, the overall wait-and-see sentiment in the market has become increasingly strong, with both buyers and sellers maintaining a cautious attitude, and the actual transaction volume has continued to remain at a low level.

Recently (9.17-9.23), the domestic EVA market has seen a slight increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 23, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11266 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.60% from 11200 yuan/ton on September 17. On the one hand, downstream demand for EVA continues to support, with high raw material prices running, supporting EVA prices to remain high; On the other hand, the overall production of EVA equipment in China remains high, and the overall growth of the EVA market is limited.
Recently (9.17-9.23), EVA production has slightly decreased to around 8.5%, indicating that supply pressure in the EVA market still exists. During the cycle, the price of raw material ethylene decreased while the price of vinyl acetate increased, and the cost continued to be supported by EVA. As of September 23, the domestic price of ethylene in Sinopec East China was 7050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.42% from 7150 yuan/ton on September 1; As of September 23, the price of vinyl acetate in the East China market was 5450 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.93% from 5400 yuan/ton on September 1.
Recently, the demand for photovoltaic EVA has continued to be strongly supported, coupled with the foam end maintaining a strong demand follow-up. The demand for EVA has been well supported in the near future, but as the long holiday approaches and holders are in a safe state of mind, their willingness to ship has increased, and merchant offers have slightly adjusted, slowing down the market’s upward trend.
Market forecast: Overall, high raw material prices for EVA will be supported by costs, and there is still supply pressure for EVA production at high levels. Downstream photovoltaic and foam industries will have strong demand support, and it is expected that the EVA spot market will consolidate at a high level in the short term.

Last week (September 15-21, 2025), the market trend of the main raw material dissolving slurry was deadlocked, with limited cost support and low overall inventory levels in the market. Supply side support still existed, and downstream cotton yarn factories mainly executed early orders and picked up goods on demand. The overall trading atmosphere in the market was stable, and the prices of adhesive short fibers continued to move steadily.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, last week (September 15-21, 2025), the market price of viscose staple fiber was weakly stable. As of September 21, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 13120 yuan/ton, which was the same as the same period last week.
In terms of cost: Last week (September 15-21, 2025), there was little change in the market price of raw material dissolving pulp, with weak support and limited cost support. As of now, the price of domestic dissolving pulp is around 6700 yuan/ton, the price of external broad-leaved pulp is around 800 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous pulp is around 870 US dollars/ton. The market prices of auxiliary materials such as liquid alkali and sulfuric acid remain stable but fluctuate slightly, with average cost support.
Low inventory level
The industry supply remains stable, and the current daily operating rate in the market remains at around 75%. The inventory levels of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers are not high, and downstream yarn enterprises pick up goods according to demand. The overall inventory of the adhesive short fiber market has decreased, and the supply fluctuation in the industry is not significant. Some manufacturers have low inventory, and the support from the supply side is limited.
Downstream on-demand pickup
The operating rate of downstream cotton yarn market equipment has slightly increased, and price fluctuations are not significant. As of September 21st, the price of ring spun R30S in Jiangsu region is around 17100 yuan/ton, and the price of ring spun R40S is around 18300 yuan/ton. The market is in a traditional off-season of demand, and downstream cotton yarn market transactions are not ideal. Only a few models of vortex spun cotton yarn have slightly better export orders. Cotton mills mainly consume raw material inventory and replenish urgently needed goods, with no significant improvement in demand.
Future forecast
On the raw material side, the main material dissolution slurry market and the auxiliary material sulfuric acid market are generally stable, while the liquid alkali market may experience a narrow decline. Therefore, it is expected that the market price trend of adhesive short fiber raw materials will decline in the short term, and the cost support will be insufficient.
Supply and demand side: The operating rate of the adhesive short fiber market equipment may not fluctuate significantly, and some manufacturers have low inventory levels. Therefore, it is expected that the supply side support of the adhesive short fiber market will be strong in the short term; The demand in the terminal market has increased, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. It is expected that the driving force of the adhesive short fiber market from the demand side will be limited in the short term.
Overall, the main raw material dissolution slurry market may be weak and stagnant, with sufficient overall supply. Downstream yarn factories mainly sign orders and purchase on demand. Under the interweaving of on-site news, adhesive short fiber manufacturers may maintain their previous quotations. Therefore, Business Society analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will remain stable with small movements in the short term, and the price is expected to be around 13000-13200 yuan/ton for acceptance.