1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic mixed xylene market price continued to rise this week. On February 28, the price of mixed xylene was 5460 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (March 7), the price was 5430 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton or 0.55% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

After the festival, xylene rose sharply due to the influence of crude oil, but the downstream demand was weak compared with its rise, which limited the rise of xylene. At the beginning of this week, the bearish crude oil fell back, driving xylene down. In terms of external market, as of March 5, the price of South Korea’s imported mixed xylene was 753 US dollars / ton, down 51 US dollars / ton or 6.34% in the week compared with February 26; the reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 772 US dollars / ton, down 36 US dollars / ton or 4.46% in the week compared with February 26.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil fell first and then rose this week. In the early stage, the market worried that the rapid rise of oil price would lead to the return of more production capacity, and OPEC + might increase production. However, at the OPEC + meeting on the 4th, it was decided to maintain the current scale of production reduction until the end of April, and Saudi Arabia will still reduce production by an additional 1 million barrels per day, boosting crude oil prices. On February 26, Brent rose $3.085/barrel, or 4.68%; WTI rose $4.69/barrel, or 7.66%.

Downstream, PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price rose 1000 yuan / ton this week, the price was 6700 yuan / ton, up 42.55% over the beginning of the year, up 8.06% year on year. As of March 5, the closing prices in Asia were US $850-852 / T FOB Korea and US $868-870 / T CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, the price of PTA in East China fluctuated this week, with a slight decline. The price was 730 yuan / ton on February 28 and 4635.83 yuan / ton on March 7, down 1.99% from last week and up 9.48% from the same period last year. The influence of PTA supply pressure was limited, and the poor processing kept low. In March, new PTA production capacity continued to be put into operation, but under the condition of low processing difference, PTA factory’s willingness to repair increased, and warehouse receipts continued to disperse spot pressure, and supply pressure was limited. The downstream polyester load remained high, the PTA demand was good, and the supply and demand pattern was strong. PTA inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly in March. Considering that PTA processing gap is at a low level and the space for further compression is limited, PTA processing gap will remain at a low level in March, and PTA price will be relatively strong.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox was stable this week. On Sunday, the price of ox in East China was 6500 yuan / ton, up 30% over the beginning of the year and 16.07% over the same period last year. The supply of o-benzene is sufficient, the cost is weak and stable temporarily; the market of phthalic anhydride and plasticizer DOP in the lower reaches is falling, and the demand is just demand-oriented. O-benzene transaction enthusiasm is general, o-benzene market is temporarily stable.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

After the festival, the lower reaches of the market is weaker than xylene, which has strong resistance to high price xylene and weak demand follow-up. Entering March, most downstream enterprises are still looking forward to the market in March. In addition to crude oil, external price support, xylene prices are expected to be strong. Continue to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and the impact of crude oil and external market on the price of mixed xylene.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of EPS ordinary material was 11075 yuan / ton on March 1 at the beginning of this week, and the average price of EPS ordinary material was 11075 yuan / ton on March 5 at the end of this week, up 21.70% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The profit of raw material styrene increased. The sharp fall of futures led to the drop of spot price. The good transaction of paper goods after the middle of the week led to the rebound of styrene price. As of March 4, the spot price of styrene in Jiangsu was about 9700 yuan / ton, up 125 yuan / ton or 1.31% compared with the closing price of 9575 yuan / ton on February 25. In addition, most domestic EPS factories have continuously lowered their ex factory prices. In addition, the profit taking of low price goods before the festival has increased, and the overall market transaction is weak. According to the statistics of the business agency, since the end of the festival, as of March 4, Jiangyin Jianlong’s ordinary materials had been delivered at 10900 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton, down 2.68% on a month on month basis, and the fuel had been delivered at 11200 yuan / ton, down 2.61% on a month on month basis.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the delivery pressure of some EPS factories is obvious, and the inventory reduction is negative. However, there may be a device restart next week, and the cost pressure is obvious, so it is expected that the EPS market will fluctuate in a narrow range next week.

According to the data monitored by the business society, the domestic PP market was in a volatile operation in early March, and the spot prices of each brand were rising and falling. As of March 5, the main offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic producers and traders was about 9416.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.35% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, an increase of 11.44% on a month-on-month basis.

Cause analysis

The domestic market of propylene in the upstream of PP ushered in a surge mode during the Spring Festival. At present, the international crude oil still rose well. From the situation that the rise of propylene market was blocked, the profit level of propylene was not as good as expected. In the short term, the recovery capacity of overseas units is limited, and it will take some time for propylene production to rise significantly. The price of the market in the early stage has been rising continuously, the shipment situation is booming, and the inventory of the manufacturer is declining. At present, domestic inventory is low, but the price of goods source is high, the downstream users are more resistant and the volume of investment is shrinking. The manufacturer is active in shipping and starts to make profit and go order. It is expected that the propylene price or vibration adjustment operation will be carried out in the near future.

At present, the rise of propylene market is blocked, and the support of PP cost end is still acceptable. After the festival, the domestic recovery speed is favorable to the demand side, and the demand on the site is rapidly unfolding. But the current PP price is also at a high level, and the enthusiasm of downstream factories to buy is declining. And this week, inventory rose, and two barrels of oil to the warehouse appeared resistance. In addition, the plant of Ningbo phase II project of Donghua energy started to put into operation in the early stage, and the current PP price is stagnant and fluctuating. The situation of export reduction caused by force majeure is still weak in the external market power in terms of price. The industry is still worried about the lack of supply of chemicals. The increase of overseas market demand has a certain boost on domestic PP price.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of March 5, the mainstream market offer of Z30S (fiber) of domestic producers and traders also rose greatly, with the price of about 9383.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.05% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, a 10.18% increase on the same period last month. The recent changes in the emission are not significant, the proportion of domestic fiber PP is more than 13%, and the overall output is stable. The high price of the source affects the downstream mentality. At present, the traders respond to the increase of shipping resistance, and expand the profit making space in operation.

After saving, the cost side of PP melt spray material improved and the price of melt blown PP also fell. As of March 5, the average price of pph-y1500 sample enterprises of melt spray material monitored by the business society was 11200 yuan / ton. At present, the domestic epidemic situation is stable, and the middle and high-risk areas in the country are cleared at the end of last month. The domestic epidemic prevention situation has been stable and good, and the demand for epidemic prevention materials has declined. The situation of overseas epidemic situation has not changed much, and the multinational government has implemented mandatory masks and the demand is stable. But recently, the price of the melt spray materials has also declined, and ExxonMobil, jumeilai and other high-melt fiber products have been reduced. At present, the background of surplus supply in the melt spray cloth manufacturing market remains unchanged, and the profit is still not ideal.

Post market forecast

PP analysts of business agency think: domestic PP spot market trend volatility adjustment at the beginning of March is mainly. The upstream propylene price rise is blocked, the price is high, and the support for PP cost end is still acceptable. Recently, futures trend is not ideal, there is a certain pressure on the mentality of the market. The high spot price also affects the delivery of production dealers. The current market delivery and investment decrease, and the operation of transferring profit to the order increases. Downstream demand began to shrink, mostly with the strategy of on-demand, polypropylene oil and social inventory began to rise. The supply of overseas goods is tight and the inflation expectation of macro market is not changed. It is expected that the PP market will be strong in the near future.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic PA6 market remained stable at the beginning of March, and the spot price rose today. As of the press time on March 4, the mainstream offer price of sample enterprises for Zhongyou 2.75-2.85 was about 16100 yuan / ton, up 22.28% month on month.

2、 The influencing factors were analyzed

Upstream, domestic caprolactam from the market trend in early March, the spot price shock rise. The improvement of caprolactam supply is limited, and the situation is still tight. Today, Sinopec’s caprolactam rose to enhance confidence in the market. The downstream side mainly purchased on demand, and the recent single volume was warmer. Raw material pure benzene was supported by a sharp drop in crude oil production capacity and a stronger cost side, and the price of pure benzene in the external market rose. Domestic pure benzene was boosted, and the low inventory of enterprises was favorable, and the price continued to rise, which strongly supported the cost of caprolactam. It is expected that caprolactam market will be sorted out in the short term.

The high price of raw material caprolactam strongly supports the cost of PA6. In the early stage, the small peak of PA6 chip demand pushed up the spot price, and there was no pressure on the current polymerization plant inventory. Recently, merchants are more active in shipping, and spinning enterprises have strong demand for PA6. But today, the overall operation of downstream plants tends to be cautious, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is gradually spreading. The trading volume of some domestic plasticization markets declined, and there was an offer shock, which led to the phenomenon of taking orders secretly.

3、 Future forecast:

Analysts from business news agency believe that: in early March, the domestic market of PA6 remained high and firm, the support from upstream caprolactam was still strong, and the cost of PA6 was stable and strong. At present, the downstream purchasing operation is buy as you use, and rigid demand is the main one. Market trading atmosphere cooling, offer rise blocked. Overall, the current fundamentals of PA6 are strong, and the price of PA6 is expected to be high.

On March 3, 2021, in the price rise and fall list of fluorine chemical industry, there was one commodity that rose, one commodity that fell, and five commodities that rose or fell to zero. Rising products include chloroform; falling products include R134a; stable products include fluorite, hydrofluoric acid, R22, aluminum fluoride and cryolite.

On March 3, the prices of some fluorite chemical raw materials in the market fell, with the price of raw fluorite at 2761.11 yuan / ton, and the price trend of fluorite remained high. Recently, some fluorite plants in China started to work normally, and some mines and flotation plants stopped. The fluorite supply in the plant was tight, but the downstream market was stable, and the price of fluorite was affected, and the increase was limited. As of March 3, the price of fluorite in Jiangxi was 2700-2900 yuan / ton, and that in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2700 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price of fluorite will remain high and volatile in the future.

Recently, the price of some downstream refrigerants rose, and the operating rate remained low. The demand for hydrofluoric acid was general. However, due to the normal supply on the site, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly. As of March 3, the quotation of hydrofluoric acid market was 10611.11 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market was mainly stable, and the operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid was less than 60%. The enterprises reflected that the current market situation was stable The supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal. Recently, the market of hydrofluoric acid on the market is general. The ex factory price of some enterprises is stable. Up to now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation is 10000-11000 yuan / ton. However, people on the market reflect that it is difficult for the hydrofluoric acid market to rise sharply in the near future. Business analyst Chen Ling thinks that the market of hydrofluoric acid may remain volatile.

The price trend of aluminum fluoride products is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the trading market is general. The ex factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Crystal Technology Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton, and the price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Zerun energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton. The overall market supply of aluminum fluoride is sufficient, and the overall price of aluminum fluoride market is relatively stable.

In recent years, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong has been rising. The overall demand of the downstream market has not changed much. The demand for trichloromethane is general. As the downstream market begins to stock up, the market price of trichloromethane has risen slightly. At present, the start-up of chloroform production enterprises in Shandong is high, the market spot supply is stable, and the shipping situation of enterprises is flat. In order to prevent excessive warehouse pressure in the future, enterprises bid for shipping. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 3100-3150 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic cryolite is temporarily stable, the operation of the plant is stable, and the supply is normal. The domestic negotiation price is about 6500-7000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiation. In general, the recent market of fluorine chemical industry is general, and it is expected that the trend of fluorine chemical industry will remain volatile in the later period.

In the near future, the price trend of downstream refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, the price of raw material chloroform rises slightly, and the cost support is general. In the near future, the downstream gradually starts to stock, the demand side rises, and the market center rises slightly. Due to the stable price trend of hydrofluoric acid, the price of some affected refrigerants rises. Refrigerant R134a price trend fell slightly, the market is strong operation. In the near future, the start-up in the downstream remained low, but the raw material support was strong, and the refrigerant market was mainly volatile.