In April, the market for refined petroleum coke experienced a significant increase followed by a high-level decline, with prices showing a significant upward trend throughout the month. Market sentiment rose strongly at the beginning of the month, but experienced a phase of correction at the end of the month, with overall fluctuations being significant. The mainstream average price of sulfur products in petroleum coke from major domestic refineries was 3541.00 yuan/ton on March 31, an increase of 30.87% compared to 2705.75 yuan/ton on March 1.
Cost aspect: In April, the domestic fuel oil price of 180CST fell sharply. In the first half of April, the international crude oil market fluctuated and the downward trend provided limited support for the domestic ship fuel market. In addition, the domestic ship fuel blended raw material market declined, resulting in light demand in the middle and lower reaches and average purchasing willingness. Terminal demand did not improve, and ship owners were cautious about refueling. At the end of April, the international crude oil market saw a significant increase, supporting the domestic ship fuel market, which showed an upward trend. According to Business Society, as of April 30th, the self extracted low sulfur quotation for 180cst fuel oil is 5800-6300 yuan/ton, and the self extracted low sulfur quotation for 120cst fuel oil is 5900-6400 yuan/ton.
Supply side: In April, domestic refineries entered the annual maintenance season, and some units were shut down for maintenance. However, the amount of imported petroleum coke arriving at the port in the early stage is still being digested, and port inventory remains high. Some refineries are experiencing poor shipments and inventory levels continue to rise. In order to accelerate capital recovery and alleviate inventory pressure, companies have lowered their quotations, leading to an overall weakening of regional prices, especially the concentrated price cuts in the latter half of the year, which further amplified market panic.
On the demand side: In April, the operating rate of terminal processing enterprises in the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry remained low, and traditional downstream orders such as real estate and automobiles were weak, resulting in insufficient procurement for essential needs; At the same time, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity continues to be released, and the social inventory shows a trend of accumulating inventory. The demand for essential petroleum coke has significantly decreased, and many enterprises mainly consume their previous inventory. The strong willingness to lower prices in new purchase orders has directly led to the obstruction of the shipment of locally refined petroleum coke.
Market forecast: There will be no significant improvement in demand for downstream electrolytic aluminum and carbon steel industries in May, with a strong wait-and-see attitude in the market and cautious entry sentiment. The market trading atmosphere is average, and refinery inventory pressure is still present, with active shipment volume as the main focus; There is room for upward pricing in the new round of pre baked anodes, and stable production of pre baked anodes is favorable for the petroleum coke market. The price of petroleum coke may maintain a range oscillation trend in May.

According to the Business Society Spot News, in the second half of April, the domestic dichloromethane market showed a cliff like decline, with a narrow range of low prices. As of April 29th, the mixed price of dichloromethane in Shandong region was 2035 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.19% from the beginning of the month.
fundamental analysis
Cost side: Increased cost inversion, pressure on dichloromethane
The situation in the Middle East has not eased, and imported goods are tight. The methanol market has stabilized and rebounded after a mild decline, making it difficult for prices to fall sharply. Liquid chlorine remains volatile at a high level, and companies have a strong willingness to raise prices. Although raw material prices have fallen, overall prices have remained strong. However, the price of dichloromethane has plummeted, directly leading to a significant increase in cost inversion for companies. The main reason is the passive price reduction and destocking caused by the imbalance between supply and demand (high production+high inventory+weak demand).
On the demand side: weak domestic demand, hindered exports, and high prices suppressing transactions
Weak domestic demand: The demand for refrigerants and pharmaceutical intermediates remains stable, but there is a shortage of orders for small and medium-sized downstream products such as sponges, coatings, and adhesives. Purchasing at high prices is cautious, with a focus on on-demand procurement.
Export obstruction: The prosperity of the export market has fallen from a high level. In March 2026, the export volume of dichloromethane was 15705.94 tons, an increase of 19% compared to the previous month and a decrease of 32% compared to the previous year. The continued impact of Middle East shipping issues on export orders, coupled with high prices, weakened export diversion capabilities, and further exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand in the domestic market. The shipping problem is difficult to solve in the short term, and there is no significant increase in exports.
Supply side: high production and inventory accumulation, high shipping pressure
Operating rate: The industry maintains a high level of around 80%, with the release of new production capacity in Jinhai, Henan, and continued loose supply. Inventory: The effect of price reduction and destocking in the first half of the month was limited, but in the second half of the year, the inventory of enterprises rebounded to a medium high level, and the pressure of shipment forced price reduction and promotion. Under losses, it is difficult for enterprises to significantly reduce production. In early May, inventory remained high, and traders’ willingness to ship increased, suppressing upward potential.
Market forecast:
Dichloromethane is fluctuating at a low level in the short term, with limited rebound and support for decline. The weak balance pattern is characterized by strong cost support, weak demand constraints, and high supply pressure, resulting in a situation where prices remain stagnant and prices are difficult to fall deeply.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market fluctuated at a low level in April 2026, with an average price of 16575 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16615 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 0.24%.
On April 28th, the Business Society Lead Index was 101.06, a decrease of 0.06 points from yesterday, a decrease of 24.59% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (November 29, 2016), and an increase of 35.41% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
In April, the domestic price of 1 # lead ingots showed a trend of rising and falling, with an overall narrow range oscillation pattern.
The supply side is showing a moderate expansion trend.
In the field of primary lead, smelters that underwent previous maintenance in Henan and Hunan regions have resumed production one after another, while Yunnan refineries have maintained stable and orderly production. The weekly operating rate of primary lead has increased to over 64% month on month, indicating a stable overall supply. The processing fee for domestically produced lead concentrate remains stable. Although the tight supply and demand situation in the mining sector has not changed, the benefits brought by the rising prices of by-products such as sulfuric acid and silver have effectively stimulated the production enthusiasm of smelters.
In terms of recycled lead, there is a complex situation where “production reduction expectations” and “production recovery” are intertwined. After the drop in lead prices, waste battery recyclers held onto their stocks and waited for an increase, causing a temporary reversal in profits from recycled lead smelting. Some small and medium-sized factories were forced to reduce production. However, the tight supply of waste battery raw materials at the end of the month has eased, reducing smelting losses and driving the weekly operating rate of recycled lead to a rebound. However, constrained by the shortage of raw materials, the recycled lead industry as a whole is hovering around the breakeven point, making it difficult to return to a state of significant profitability, and the recovery process of production is slow.
demand side
April coincides with the traditional off-season for consumption, and the overall demand side is weak. The market demand for replacing starting batteries for electric bicycles and cars is sluggish, and dealers have accumulated inventory, resulting in significant pressure to reduce inventory. Purchasing attitudes are cautious. Battery companies generally adopt the strategy of “production based on sales and procurement according to demand”, only replenishing lead ingots for essential needs, with extremely low acceptance of high priced sources. It is expected that the replenishment efforts before May Day will also be very limited.
Inventory end
The social inventory is still at a relatively high level in recent years; LME inventory has fallen to a high of 294000 tons, and global inventory pressure has not fully eased.
comprehensive summary
The overall technical aspect presents the characteristics of “weak rebound, top building and decline”. The short-term upward movement of the moving average system at the beginning of the month can quickly decline due to the inability of fundamentals to support it; The double dead cross of the moving average and the return of the price to below the suppression zone indicate that the previous golden cross signal has been falsified, and selling pressure dominates. The current high degree of adhesion and weak directionality of the moving average system is usually a manifestation of market long short equilibrium but unclear trend direction, indicating that prices are difficult to break out of the range and emerge from the trend market, and are likely to continue the range oscillation pattern.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 27th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 5810 yuan/ton, and the DMF market price showed a clear downward trend this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price remained in a relatively stable range, but over time, the price continued to decline. As of the weekend, the mainstream market DMF price had fallen by about 300-400 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the week, and the price differences in different regions were also quite obvious. The price decline in East China was relatively large, while the price in South China was relatively strong, but also had a certain degree of decline.
2、 Cause analysis
Market supply: This week, the overall operating rate of DMF production enterprises in China is at a high level, and some devices that were previously repaired have resumed production. The market supply has further increased, and the operating rate of some large enterprises has remained above 80%, which has continued to increase the pressure on market supply.
Raw material cost: Raw material prices: The price trend of methanol and liquid ammonia will directly affect the production cost and market price of DMF. If raw material prices continue to decline, DMF prices will have greater room for decline; On the contrary, if raw material prices stabilize or rise, the extent of DMF price decline may be limited to some extent.
Downstream demand: D Polyurethane industry: As the main downstream area of DMF, the polyurethane industry has continued to experience weak demand this week, and the growth in demand for polyurethane products in the end market is sluggish, resulting in low operating rates of polyurethane production enterprises. In order to control costs, enterprises have reduced their procurement of DMF, which has put significant pressure on market prices. Leather industry: The leather industry is also facing difficulties. The strict implementation of environmental protection policies has restricted the production of some leather enterprises, and at the same time, market competition is fierce, resulting in poor product sales. This has led to a significant reduction in the demand for DMF by leather enterprises, further suppressing the demand for DMF in the DMF market. Pharmaceutical and pesticide industries: The demand for DMF in the pharmaceutical and pesticide industries is relatively stable, but the proportion is relatively small. The production situation in these two industries is basically normal this week. DMF The demand has not shown significant fluctuations, but it cannot support the overall market demand.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that DMF prices may continue to decline in the short term, and the situation of oversupply in the market is difficult to change in the short term. Downstream demand is also unlikely to improve significantly in the short term. If raw material prices continue to fall, DMF costs will further decrease, and prices may continue to decline.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province fell this week (4.20-4.24), with an average market price of 17050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16550 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.93%.
The following analysis is based on fundamentals:
Supply and demand side

On the supply side, the production status of smelting enterprises in the current main production areas remains stable. The factory’s spot inventory is at a historically low level, leading to a general reluctance to sell among enterprises. Mainstream large smelting enterprises have reduced their inventory of spot goods, prioritizing the smooth delivery of previously signed long-term orders. Overall, there has been no concentrated selling phenomenon in the market.

On the demand side, the traditional off-season characteristics of consumption are further highlighted, and downstream demand in areas such as automobiles, aluminum alloys, and steel desulfurization continues to be weak. Terminal enterprises only maintain small orders for essential needs without centralized replenishment actions; The export market has not shown a significant recovery, and overseas orders have fallen short of expectations, making it impossible to hedge the domestic demand gap. Market transactions remain sluggish, and there is a strong sentiment of buying up rather than buying down.

Raw material end

The prices of raw materials such as ferrosilicon and blue charcoal remain stable but are weakening, providing weak support for magnesium prices. The price of Fugu 75 silicon iron has declined compared to the middle of the week, and the market is weak. Purchasing is limited according to demand, and demand follow-up is flat. Some enterprises have resumed production, putting pressure on the market. However, in some regions, spot prices are tight and production orders are placed. Raw material prices remain stable, and manufacturers have a low willingness to lower prices and ship, so they are more cautious. Futures open high and fall low, trading is cautious, long and short positions are deadlocked, and the short-term 75 silicon iron market may fluctuate within a range. The price of Fugu blue charcoal is temporarily stable, with upstream raw coal steadily supporting costs and a moderate increase in supply. Downstream procurement is cautious, resulting in a weak balance between supply and demand. Coupled with weak demand for ferrosilicon and other materials, the fundamentals are weak, and the short-term price of blue charcoal may continue to be weak.
integrated forecasting
Although there is a possibility of technical recovery after oversold in the short term, the rebound space is relatively limited in an environment where demand has not significantly rebounded and supply remains loose, and can only be seen as a weak pullback. At present, two key variables need to be focused on: firstly, whether the downstream will carry out centralized stocking actions before the May Day holiday; Secondly, whether the smelting enterprises in the main production areas will initiate production reduction and maintenance plans is the only core factor that can reverse the short-term decline. If there are no favorable factors, magnesium prices are likely to continue their downward trend.