On March 11th, the domestic ethylene glycol market experienced ups and downs, with the mainstream spot market in East China closing at 4350 yuan/ton and -20 yuan/ton; The South China market is concerned about the impact of geopolitical issues on supply, and holders are still reluctant to sell. The spot market has sporadic quotations, and the mentality is slightly cautious, closing at 4900 yuan/ton,+450 yuan/ton.
Fundamental analysis:
Supply: As of March 8th, the inventory of diethylene glycol ports in East China was 56000 tons, an increase of 8000 tons compared to the previous statistical period. This week (March 10-16), Zhangjiagang Diethylene Glycol is expected to arrive at a ship of 10500 tons, with an increase in expected port volume. Downstream work and production are gradually resuming, and port shipments may increase. The inventory changes at the main ports in East China are not significant.
Demand: Downstream is gradually recovering, and the unsaturated resin plant is continuing to resume and restart within the week, with demand gradually increasing. According to statistics, the average operating rate of unsaturated resin factories in China this week is 35%, an increase of 20% compared to the previous period. On March 10th, a total of 1522 tons were shipped from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang, an increase of 138 tons from the previous day.
Cost: The market believes that the Iran Israel conflict is expected to end faster than expected, and coupled with the possibility of the G7 group releasing strategic reserves, international oil prices have fallen. The oil price has experienced two significant fluctuations this week. On Monday, benchmark oil prices soared to a nearly four-year high; On Tuesday, US President Trump’s Middle East conflict may soon come to an end, causing oil prices to plummet by 11%; On Tuesday evening, the US Secretary of Energy tweeted that the US Navy had successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to plummet by 20% at one point. If G7 leaders announce substantive measures after the meeting, tonight will become the trigger point for the third consecutive trading day of significant fluctuations in oil prices.
Market expectation: The traditional peak season is approaching, downstream is gradually restarting, demand side support is strong, but the situation in the Middle East is easing, oil prices are under pressure and falling, downstream resistance is strong, and the enthusiasm for actual purchases is poor. The short-term ethylene glycol market is facing pressure.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the market for adipic acid has been continuously rising since March, with prices breaking through 10000 yuan and surging by over 27%. On March 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8300 yuan/ton, and on March 10th, the average market price of adipic acid was 10600 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 27.71%.
The main factors affecting the rise of adipic acid in this round of market trend
On the cost side: Due to geopolitical factors, international crude oil prices continue to rise, directly driving the prices of upstream raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone to strengthen. The raw material market has surged, supporting the rise of adipic acid market.
Pure benzene: In early March, the main listing price of pure benzene was raised to 7200 yuan/ton, and the average spot price in East China once rose to 7270 yuan/ton. At the same time, several major factories raised their listing prices multiple times in early March, gradually pushing them from 9000 yuan/ton to over 12000 yuan/ton. Although on March 10th, crude oil experienced a pullback and the pure benzene market surged and fell back, with prices returning to around 9600 yuan/ton, overall it still rose by more than 50% compared to the beginning of the month.
Cyclohexanone, as another major raw material for adipic acid, is also driven by the crude oil market. In March, some cyclohexanone units entered the maintenance period, and the overall market supply decreased. Spot inventory was at a low level, and manufacturers had a strong willingness to raise prices. From March 1st to 10th, the price of cyclohexanone increased from 7250 yuan/ton to 9900 yuan/ton, an increase of over 36%.
Short term sentiment: As the price of adipic acid continues to hit new highs, market participants are generally cautious, and manufacturers have even experienced lockdowns. On the morning of March 10th, there was a pullback in raw material prices, leading to an increase in market sentiment.
Requirement: Terminal (such as pulp, sole stock solution, PBAT, etc.) rigid procurement is the main focus. However, due to high costs, some traditional demand industries have generally resumed production and are mainly cautious about high priced raw materials. The market is in a game between cost and demand.
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, international crude oil prices will continue to remain high, mainly boosted by the raw material market. Due to the high market demand for adipic acid and cautious terminal demand, there will be insufficient momentum for a sharp rise in the future adipic acid market, with a slight correction being the main factor.

price trend
In the past week (March 2nd to March 8th, 2026), the PA6 market has shown a sustained upward trend with strong cost push and tight supply-demand balance. On March 8th, the benchmark price of PA6 in Shengyi Society has risen to 11833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.90% from 10866.67 yuan/ton on March 2nd. Recently, PA6 has shown a typical cost driven upward trend, mainly due to geopolitical risks and skyrocketing raw material prices; The tight supply resonated with the urgent need to replenish inventory, driving prices to steadily rise during the week.
influencing factors
In terms of cost:
The recent tense situation in the Middle East has pushed up international oil prices, driving up the price of pure benzene for six consecutive years and directly raising the production cost of caprolactam. According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of caprolactam increased from 10133.33 yuan/ton to 10937.50 yuan/ton within the week, with a weekly increase of 7.94%. The significant rise in caprolactam has become the core driving force behind the price increase of PA6.
Supply side:
Recently, the operating rate of the PA6 industry has been about 70%, with some equipment undergoing maintenance and enterprises controlling production and prices, resulting in a temporary tight supply of spot goods. Factory inventory is low, traders are reluctant to sell, low-priced sources are reduced, and suppliers’ bargaining power is enhanced.
In terms of demand:
The downstream textile industry’s production has rebounded to around 70%, entering the post holiday replenishment cycle. Under high prices, procurement is mainly based on small orders of rigid demand, with limited enthusiasm for chasing high prices. However, rigid demand effectively absorbs prices.
Market forecast:
If there is no obvious bearish trend in the short term, the price of PA6 is still prone to rise but difficult to fall, but the inhibitory effect of high prices on downstream demand is accumulating. Focus on the impact of changes in the Middle East situation on upstream crude oil and pure benzene prices in the future.

There is still no sign of easing geopolitical risks this week, with international oil prices rising and raw material propylene prices continuously jumping. The production cost pressure of acrylonitrile has increased significantly, and prices have followed the rise of raw materials. As of March 6th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 8650 yuan/ton, up 1050 yuan/ton from last week’s 7500 yuan/ton; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market costs 8400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1200 yuan/ton from last week’s 7200 yuan/ton.
Local inventory decline:
During the week, the 130000 ton/year unit of Fushun Petrochemical was shut down for maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate slightly decreased, but remained at around 75%. According to statistics, as of March 5th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories was 74.88%, which was -0.73% compared to the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 87400 tons, which is 0.08 million tons higher than the previous cycle. The supply slightly decreased during the week, while demand recovered after the holiday and price increases stimulated buying, resulting in a decrease in local inventory. As of March 5th, the total inventory was around 50000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from last week.
Demand has recovered:
This week, the overall capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries of acrylonitrile has increased, and the load of facilities such as Zhejiang Petrochemical has decreased. The capacity utilization rate of ABS is 69.50%, which is -1.2% compared to last week; After the holiday, factories resumed work one after another, and the capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises was 85.31%, an increase of 4.57% compared to last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 55.29%, an increase of 8.66% compared to last week. The overall demand has increased.
Increased cost pressure:
During the week, the trend of raw material propylene was relatively strong, and although the price of acrylonitrile followed the rise of raw materials, the production loss situation has not improved. The price of acrylonitrile remained low during the week, while the price of raw material propylene continued to rise, and the production loss situation continued to worsen. According to statistics, as of March 5th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 7370 yuan/ton, an increase of 960 yuan/ton from 6410 yuan/ton last week. The average production cost of acrylonitrile was 8947 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 3.34%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -1238 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 29 yuan/ton.
In the later stage prediction, the price increase in the acrylonitrile market is expanding, and the cost push is gradually increasing. In addition, industry players are concerned about the continued supply of raw materials, loss pressure, and supply variables. As a result, major suppliers have significantly increased their quotes, and there is a strong bullish atmosphere in the market due to the partial reduction of supply in the later stage. However, in the short term, the overall supply in the market is still relatively abundant, and attention should be paid to the degree of raw material acceptance under the pressure of downstream product profits.

Recently, the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have been escalating, causing disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, and causing a sudden tension in the global energy and chemical markets. For the dichloromethane industry, this geopolitical conflict has created a rare “two-way squeeze”: on the one hand, the price of key raw material methanol has skyrocketed due to supply concerns from Iran, while liquid chlorine has simultaneously strengthened, driving up costs strongly; On the other hand, the Middle East market (14 countries, involving a total amount of 132 million yuan), which accounts for 22.3% of the total export value, faces the risk of shipping delays, rejections, or even stagnation. The reverse movement of cost push up and export obstruction has plunged the market into a complex game of “price increase without demand, price reduction with cost”.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 5th, the mixed price of dichloromethane in Shandong region was 2095 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 19.37% compared to early March.
1、 Cost resonance: The sharp rise in raw materials solidifies the bottom of prices
The production cost of dichloromethane is driven by both liquid chlorine and methanol. The current situation in the Middle East has caused a surge in raw material prices through energy transmission, forming strong cost support:
In terms of methanol, Iran is the world’s second largest producer of methanol, with an average annual production capacity of about 17 million tons, accounting for 59% of China’s methanol imports. Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, Iran’s cargo shipping has been hindered, import supply expectations have tightened, coupled with rising energy prices driving up costs, methanol prices have surged significantly, further pushing up the production cost of dichloromethane. On March 5th, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2500 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.64% compared to early March.
In terms of liquid chlorine, downstream facilities in Shandong have been operating at a reduced capacity, and the concentrated release of demand has led to a significant increase in prices. The ex factory prices of tank trucks have rapidly risen, and cost support has significantly increased. The factory quotation for tank trucks has increased from 100-150 yuan/ton in early March to 100-400 yuan/ton. The resonance of the two major raw materials has led to a rapid increase in the cost line of dichloromethane.
2、 Overview of Export Impact: Nearly 1/4 of Export Scale Facing Shipping Risks
According to the 2025 dichloromethane export data statistics, the situation in the Middle East has had a significant impact on China’s dichloromethane exports, with clear characteristics of the impact:
Scale of impact: A total of 14 countries were affected, involving an export amount of 132 million yuan, accounting for about 22.3% of the total exports, and nearly a quarter of the export business faced shipping fluctuations.
Risk structure: Risks exhibit characteristics of “high concentration and prominent extreme values”. Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt together account for more than 90% of the affected amount, and are the main carriers of shipping risks; Iran, Israel, Yemen and other countries have a relatively low proportion of export value, but their performance risks are extremely high. Shipping companies refuse to ship, ship schedules are delayed, and port delays occur frequently, making it significantly more difficult to deliver orders.
Logistics impact: The restricted passage of the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz has led to a general delay of 10-15 days in related shipping routes, resulting in a significant increase in sea freight and insurance costs, directly driving up export costs. The pace of overseas arrivals has slowed down, and export shipments have been temporarily hindered.

3、 Market Contradiction: The Game between Cost Boosting and Export Suppression
The current dichloromethane market has formed a typical “double-edged sword” effect:
Positive support: high cost of methanol/liquid chlorine+generally low inventory of domestic enterprises+bullish market sentiment
Negative pressure: blocked demand in core export markets+rising logistics costs+uncertainty in overseas orders
If the export channel is blocked, the goods originally intended for export will be forced to flow back to China, increasing domestic supply pressure and in turn suppressing price increases.
4、 Future prospects
In the short term, the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain, and shipping risks and high prices of raw materials will continue to exist. The logic of cost support and export disturbance is not eliminated, and the price of dichloromethane is expected to maintain a strong trend. In the medium term, it is necessary to focus on the progress of shipping recovery, the strength of downstream demand recovery, and fluctuations in raw material prices. If geopolitical conflicts ease and export logistics recover, prices may gradually return to rationality, but the cost bottom has significantly increased, and the overall market center has significantly shifted upward compared to the previous period. If the situation in the Middle East does not ease, the impact of hindered exports will gradually become apparent, and port inventories may accumulate, suppressing the upward space for prices.