The phthalic anhydride market continued to decline in May
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 30th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 6950 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.80% compared to the price of 7150 yuan/ton on May 1st. During the US China tariff negotiations, the phthalic anhydride market was favorable, with a brief increase in phthalic anhydride prices. However, the demand for phthalic anhydride did not grow well, and phthalic anhydride enterprises resumed production, with the operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises increasing to about 70%. Downstream demand for plasticizers rebounded, and the increase in supply and demand did not meet expectations, resulting in a continuous decline in phthalic anhydride prices.
Supply side: resumption of work and increase in supply
The phthalic anhydride plant has resumed operation, and the capacity utilization rate of the domestic phthalic anhydride industry has increased to about 70%. The capacity utilization rate of the naphthalene phthalic anhydride industry has remained stable; The utilization rate of production capacity in the domestic phthalic anhydride industry has been improved, and the supply of phthalic anhydride has increased.
Demand side: DOP market hits bottom and rebounds
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 30th, the DOP price was 8250.83 yuan/ton, a decrease followed by an increase of 1.27% compared to the DOP price of 8147.50 yuan/ton on May 1st; Compared with the DOP price of 7850 yuan/ton on May 11th, it rebounded and rose by 5.11%. In early May, DOP prices continued the downward trend of April and fluctuated downwards. Starting from mid May, with the easing of tariffs and the expected increase in demand for plasticizers, the price of plasticizers hit the bottom and rebounded. In addition, the price of raw material isooctanol first fell and then rose, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, the cost of plasticizers first fell and then rose, and the price of plasticizers hit the bottom and rebounded.
Future forecast
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, on the supply side, phthalic anhydride manufacturers have increased their production, resulting in an increase in phthalic anhydride supply; In terms of demand, during the economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States, it is expected that the plasticizer market will rebound, and the demand for phthalic anhydride will increase. However, the demand recovery is not as expected, and the support for phthalic anhydride demand is insufficient. In the future, with strong supply and weak demand, it is expected that the price of phthalic anhydride will remain weak and stabilize.

The price of isooctanol first fell and then rose in May
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 29th, the price of isooctanol was 7533.33 yuan/ton, a decrease followed by an increase of 0.67% compared to the price of 7483.33 yuan/ton on May 1st; Compared to May 12th, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose by 4.87% to 7183.33 yuan/ton. In May, the price of isooctanol continued its volatile downward trend from April. Since mid May, China and the United States have started economic and trade talks, international trade tariffs have eased, and demand for isooctanol is expected to rebound. The price of isooctanol has hit the bottom and rebounded; The production capacity of isooctanol enterprises has increased, and the supply of isooctanol is sufficient. In addition, the demand recovery is not as expected, and the support for the price increase of isooctanol is limited.
Downstream plasticizer DOP prices hit bottom and rebounded in May
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 29th, the DOP price was 8255.83 yuan/ton, a decrease followed by an increase of 1.33% compared to the DOP price of 8147.50 yuan/ton on May 1st; Compared to May 11th, the DOP price of 7850 yuan/ton fluctuated and rose by 5.17%. The operating rate of DOP plasticizer enterprises is temporarily stable. With the economic and trade talks between China and the United States, tariff easing, the expected increase in demand for plasticizers, the increase in plasticizer production, and the expected rebound in demand for isooctanol, the price of isooctanol first fell and then rose.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s octanol products, the increase in production of plasticizer enterprises has led to a rebound in demand for plasticizers, an increase in production of plasticizer enterprises, and a rebound in downstream demand for isooctanol; The production capacity of isooctanol enterprises has increased, with stable operation and sufficient supply of isooctanol. In the future, with sufficient supply and a rebound in demand, it is expected that the price of isooctanol will stabilize strongly.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell and rose this week (5.26-5.30), with an average market price of 264520 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 251610 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 4.88%.
On the supply side, the overall supply situation of major tin ore supply areas such as Yunnan is becoming tight. As a result, some smelting enterprises may take measures to suspend production and maintenance in the future to cope with the shortage of raw materials. In terms of the market, there has been a particularly strong reaction to rumors that resuming production in the Wa region requires payment of relevant fees. At present, only a few enterprises have completed the payment procedures for mining certificates, and most enterprises are still adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Most top mining traders have not taken any action. In addition, the current review measures at the China Myanmar border are relatively strict, and the entry procedures for large equipment and related mining personnel are cumbersome and complex, which further affects the resumption of production in the Wa region and prevents it from meeting market expectations.
On the demand side, the trading activity in the spot market has significantly increased recently. After the tin price experienced a sharp decline, some companies seized the opportunity to launch procurement actions. With the further decline in prices, the purchasing willingness of downstream and end enterprises has significantly increased, and they have made essential purchases according to actual needs and appropriately replenished inventory.
comprehensive analysis
In the downstream application field of tin, the market performance of tinplate and tin chemical industry is relatively average, while the increase in demand mainly comes from the largest proportion of tin solder materials. However, there are still hidden concerns on the demand side, that is, in the context of global trade conflicts, the global economic growth rate is facing the risk of decline, which brings great uncertainty to the demand for tin. Although the resumption of production in the mining sector and trade conflicts between major countries have had a negative impact on tin prices, the strong performance of the current actual demand side and the shortage of tin ore supply can still provide some support for tin prices.

Price Trend Review
In early May, macro sentiment rebounded and fundamentals suppressed alternately, causing fluctuations in nickel prices. On May 16th, it reached a monthly high of 126258 yuan/ton; In late May, the favorable macroeconomic policies failed to offset the pressure of weak fundamentals, and the center of gravity of nickel prices shifted downwards.
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on May 29th, spot nickel was reported at 121758 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 2.73% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.63%.
Macro level: Policy boost has limited effect
Positive policies and short-term sentiment boost: China US trade breakthrough easing, significant tariff reduction (effective May 12th): Both sides cancel 91% tariffs, suspend 24%, and reduce remaining tariffs to 10%, directly easing cost pressures on export-oriented manufacturing. After the agreement came into effect, the booking volume of container transportation between China and the United States surged by 277% within 9 days, easing the export pressure of downstream nickel (stainless steel, battery materials) and improving market expectations for metal demand. Domestic financial policies are being strengthened: the central bank, the State Administration of Financial Supervision, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly released a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations, increase expectations of loose liquidity, and boost sentiment in the industrial products market.
Marginal diminishing policy effects: In late May, the market’s optimistic sentiment towards the reduction of tariffs between China and the United States was completely digested, lacking new drivers. The central bank announced interest rate cuts and lowered deposit rates, but the credit demand of enterprises and residents was sluggish, the willingness of real consumption and investment was weak, the expectation of metal demand did not improve significantly, and the rebound of nickel prices was weak.
Supply side: Continued excess pressure
Indonesia’s nickel ore supply is tight: The rainy season in May affected nickel ore mining, coupled with the addition of a 1.5% nickel product royalty fee, which pushed up costs in the short term and put pressure on nickel iron prices.
Rumors of a ban on nickel ore exports from the Philippines: Market rumors suggest that the Philippines plans to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025 (requiring congressional approval and a 5-year implementation cycle), which will stimulate bullish sentiment in the short term, but the actual supply impact is limited. At present, the rainy season in the Philippines has ended, shipping volume has rebounded, nickel ore prices have fallen, and the marginal cost support has weakened.
Excess inventory: LME nickel inventory decreased by 1176 tons per month (to 200142 tons); Domestic nickel inventory in Shanghai has decreased by 2138 tons per month (to 22170 tons), and the pressure on domestic and foreign spot prices has slightly eased. The global surplus is still under pressure.

Demand side: Stainless steel off-season+weak demand for new energy
The confidence in the stainless steel industry is low: steel mills are under pressure on profits, production schedules have decreased month on month, and the off-season effect is evident. The accumulation of steel mills’ inventory has suppressed their willingness to purchase, and nickel demand has only maintained basic demand. On May 29th, the spot price of stainless steel was reported at 13175 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.96% from the beginning of the month.
New energy demand differentiation: The installation volume of ternary batteries has declined, with a month on month decrease of 7.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.3% in April, and the proportion has shrunk to 17.2%; The dominant position of lithium iron phosphate has been strengthened, with its proportion increasing to 82.8%, further squeezing the application space of nickel in power batteries. Export drag, the export of ternary precursors in April decreased by 67% year-on-year, and weak overseas demand constrained nickel consumption.
Market forecast: The pattern of oversupply is difficult to change, there is a lack of bright spots in demand, the macro boost is weak, and there is no obvious upward driving force in fundamentals. The cost of nickel ore in Indonesia is rising, and support still exists. It is expected that nickel prices will remain within a range of fluctuations. Attention should be paid to Indonesia’s nickel ore export policy in June.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the styrene market has been operating with narrow fluctuations recently, and there have been no new maintenance or restarts in the supply side recently. The port inventory is in the middle, and the supply side support is relatively strong. The raw material pure benzene is affected by macro and internal supply and demand factors, and the price remains stable at a low level, with weak support on the raw material side. Looking at the future, the profit of styrene has been restored, and some maintenance facilities have plans to restart in advance, leading to an increase in supply expectations. At the same time, there is a high possibility that the raw material pure benzene will remain weak. It is expected that the styrene market will operate weakly in the short term.