According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been weak and volatile recently (4.10-4.22). As of April 22, the spot rubber market in China was around 14350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.70% from 14598 yuan/ton on the 10th. The high point during the cycle was 14735 yuan/ton, and the low point was 14310 yuan/ton. Currently, influenced by international trade news, the atmosphere in the domestic rubber market is relatively weak. The price of raw materials has slightly decreased; Domestic Tianjiao Port inventory has slightly decreased compared to the previous period, but overall remains at a high level; The downstream construction is basically stable; The Shanghai rubber market is weak and volatile, while the natural rubber spot market is fluctuating and adjusting.
In the second quarter, the overseas main production areas are expected to gradually increase production volume, coupled with the current good weather and high price stimulation, rubber farmers are cutting rubber smoothly, and rubber prices are difficult to stabilize at high levels; At the same time, Yunnan Province in China has conducted trial cutting, and it is expected that the supply of rubber raw materials at home and abroad will increase, leading to a decrease in the price of natural rubber raw materials. As of April 22, the price of Thai glue was 56.20 baht/kg, slightly lower than the 57.50 baht/kg on April 10.
Natural rubber inventory has slightly decreased, but overall it remains at a high level. As of April 20, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 612500 tons, a decrease of 7000 tons or 1.08% compared to the previous period.
Supply and demand side: Downstream tire production is generally stable, but the international trade situation has an impact, resulting in a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the natural rubber market and light inquiries. As of April 20th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 7.8%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.5% of the load.
Market forecast: When domestic and international raw material prices fall from high levels, coupled with the unclear international trade situation and weak downstream inquiries, the support for natural rubber will weaken, and the inventory of Tianjiao Port will still be at a high level; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will continue its weak consolidation trend in the later stage.

Since mid April, the domestic ABS market has continued to be weak, with most grades experiencing a decrease in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 21st, the average price of ABS sample products was 11000 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -2.22% compared to the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: In mid April, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry remained stable with small fluctuations, and the overall load level was 67%, which was basically the same as the first ten days. The weekly average production has returned to around 120000 tons, but it is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises has risen above 200000 tons. In addition, there are relatively few maintenance plans in the industry in the short term, and there are still companies returning to production capacity in the near future. The on-site supply is very abundant, and the supply-demand contradiction is profound. Overall, there has been no improvement in the supply side’s support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: Since mid April, the upstream three materials of ABS have shown signs of fatigue, providing poor support for the cost side of ABS. At the beginning of the month, some units in the East China and Shandong regions reduced their load or underwent maintenance, resulting in a periodic decrease in supply of acrylonitrile. The inventory pressure in the industry has decreased. However, the production and discharge of the acrylonitrile unit at Yulong Petrochemical in mid month hindered the upward trend of the domestic acrylonitrile market. The consumer end has weakened in stages, with prices falling back, and the market as a whole is cautiously observing.
The domestic butadiene market has experienced a significant decline in recent times. Under the influence of international news such as equivalent tariffs, the crude oil and synthetic rubber futures markets have fallen widely, and the cost and demand of the butadiene market have been greatly affected, dragging down the mentality of the spot market. The port arrival situation on the supply side is good, but the overall supply of butadiene is relatively loose. Overall, it is expected that there may not be a positive market trend in the short term.
Styrene is also subject to international news such as equivalent tariffs, and the market has experienced a significant decline in the early stage. Recently, due to the recovery of the pure benzene market and the tight balance between supply and demand of styrene, prices have shown a trend of stabilizing and oscillating. In April, there were many centralized inspections of styrene, and the supply side remained tight. Downstream 3S factories had high inventory and limited production. However, in the uncertain market situation of raw materials, the risk of a decline in styrene in the future cannot be ruled out.
On the demand side: As we enter late April, the load of downstream ABS factories in the ABS terminal is generally flat, and the purchasing logic tends to buy at the bottom and replenish orders for urgent needs. The confidence in the market is weak, and the purchasing atmosphere is more cautious. With the exhaustion of essential orders, new order deliveries have noticeably weakened, and the flow of goods has returned slowly. Overall, the demand side has poor support for the ABS market.
Future forecast
Recently, the domestic ABS market has been weak and difficult to change. The upstream three materials are weakly moving, which provides poor comprehensive support for the cost side of ABS. The load of the ABS polymerization plant remains stable with little fluctuation, and there has been no improvement in demand side consumption. Business analysts believe that ABS has fallen to near cost price, and the market has long had strong supply and weak demand. Coupled with the impact of international news such as equivalent tariffs, pessimistic expectations for the future are biased. The bullish trend within the market is hard to find, and there is still a possibility that the market may continue to decline in the short term.

This week (April 14-18, 2025), manufacturers will mainly execute preliminary contracts, and the adhesive short fiber market will be organized and operated, with prices remaining stable. The upstream raw material market is not performing well, while the downstream market is holding onto rigid demand procurement in multiple dimensions. The support from both the cost and demand sides is weak, and the release of newly signed orders in the market is limited. Operators mainly execute preliminary contracts, and the market price of adhesive short fibers is stable and organized.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 18, 2025, the average market price of viscose staple fiber is 13480 yuan/ton, which is the same as the same period last week.
In terms of cost: The market price of raw material dissolution slurry has not fluctuated much this week, while the prices of auxiliary liquid alkali and sulfuric acid markets have shown a downward trend. The market price of raw materials continues to be weak, and the average production cost of adhesive short fibers has decreased.
Supply and demand: The operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry remained at around 77.16% this week, and production continued to decrease compared to last week. During the week, the operating load of some adhesive short fiber facilities in Shandong region decreased, and the overall supply of the industry continued to decline. The operating rate of downstream cotton yarn industry has slightly decreased, and prices continue to decline. The demand in the terminal market is still light, and there is a certain degree of risk aversion in the downstream market. The replenishment demand is limited, and the main consumption of raw material inventory is high. The demand side has not shown significant improvement, and downstream enterprises have poor delivery speed during the week. The overall inventory of the adhesive short fiber market still shows an increasing trend.
Future forecast
On the raw material side, the main material dissolution slurry market may remain weak and stagnant, while the auxiliary material liquid alkali and sulfuric acid markets may remain stable with small fluctuations. Therefore, it is expected that the market price of adhesive short fiber raw materials will not change much next week, and the cost support will be relatively weak and stable.
Supply and demand side: There is currently no clear recovery time for the pre parking maintenance equipment, and the industry supply may not fluctuate significantly; There is currently no sign of improvement in demand in the terminal market, and downstream yarn companies may mainly execute preliminary orders, with limited demand for raw material replenishment. Therefore, it is expected that the driving force from the demand side of the adhesive short fiber market will remain weak next week.
Overall, the main raw material dissolution slurry market may continue to maintain a stable trend, and downstream market demand is unlikely to improve. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, and analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will consolidate next week, with prices expected to be around 13300-13500 yuan/ton.

Market Overview
This week (4.9-4.17), the dichloromethane market in Shandong continued to operate weakly, with a light trading atmosphere and an unstable market focus. Affected by the continuous weakness of the demand side, production enterprises have a strong willingness to ship, and bidding sales have become the mainstream strategy.
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 17th, the average price of dichloromethane dispersed water in Shandong Province was 2235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.1% during the week.
analysis of influencing factors
Supply side: Partial negative reduction, overall supply is still relatively loose
Device dynamics: Some methane chloride units in Shandong have gradually recovered after maintenance, but some enterprises still maintain reduced load operation. The overall operating rate of the industry fluctuates around 75%, and the supply is relatively stable.
Enterprise inventory: Although inventory pressure is not high, due to weak demand, the enterprise still focuses on destocking, and some manufacturers offer small discounts on shipments.
Cost side: Weakening prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine
Methanol: Due to the bearish macro sentiment and weak downstream demand, methanol prices continue to decline. As of April 17th, the spot price of methanol in Shandong was reported at 2450 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.43%, which weakened the cost support for dichloromethane.
Liquid chlorine: This week, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has significantly decreased, further weakening the cost support of dichloromethane.
On the demand side: rigid procurement is the main focus, and market trading is sluggish
Downstream industries (such as refrigerants, pharmaceuticals, pesticide intermediates, etc.) have low purchasing enthusiasm and mainly rely on replenishment for essential needs, resulting in weak market transactions. Traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude, with some low-priced goods circulating, but overall transaction volume is limited.
Future prospects
In the short term, the dichloromethane market will continue to maintain a weak consolidation pattern, with the main influencing factors including:
Supply side: If the enterprise continues to reduce its burden or increase maintenance, or forms a certain support for prices.
Cost side: If the prices of methanol and liquid chlorine continue to decline, the cost support for dichloromethane may continue to loosen.
On the demand side: If there is no significant rebound in downstream demand, the market will still be under pressure.
It is expected that the price of dichloromethane will continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the trend of raw materials and changes in enterprise production.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 16, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 6433 yuan/ton. Compared with April 7 (reference price of n-butanol is 6783 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.16%.
Recently, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong region of China has shown a weak downward trend. Recently, the focus of negotiations on n-butanol in Shandong has been shifting towards lower levels. As of April 16th, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong has been referenced at 6350-6500 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of about 100-300 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Market Factors
In terms of supply and demand: Currently, some maintenance facilities in the n-butanol market have not resumed operation, and the supply pressure in the n-butanol field is still acceptable. The downstream demand performance is average, and users are cautious in following up on new orders, mainly restocking at low prices. Demand transmission is poor, and n-butanol factories offer discounts for shipments, revealing a supply-demand contradiction.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is light, with insufficient effective support and a strong wait-and-see attitude. Industry players have a poor mentality, and downstream traders are cautious in restocking at low prices. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province will mainly adjust and operate weakly, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.