In March, polyethylene varieties all emerged from a market trend of “continuous rise+periodic correction+new highs”. According to the testing conducted by Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 6616 yuan/ton on March 1st and 9016 yuan/ton on March 30th, an increase of 36.27%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8633 yuan/ton on March 1st and 11416 yuan/ton on March 30th, an increase of 32.24%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on March 1st was 7317 yuan/ton, and on March 30th it was 9987 yuan/ton, an increase of 36.49%.
The core driving factor of the market: the resonance of cost surges and supply contraction expectations caused by geopolitical conflicts, where the cost side is the direct driving force and the supply side is strong support.
Cost side: The surge in crude oil prices has ignited the market, causing a sharp increase in cost pressure.
The soaring price of crude oil: In early March, the situation in the Middle East escalated, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz was blocked. International oil prices soared, directly pushing up the raw material cost of polyethylene. The strong support on the cost side was the first driving force for the market to start. The production costs of domestic oil to PE enterprises have significantly increased, prompting them to adjust their factory prices and drive up the spot market.
Supply side: Dual contraction of internal and external supply, exacerbating the mismatch between market supply and demand.
Blocked import sources: The Middle East is the source of nearly 50% of China’s polyethylene imports, and the shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz have increased, directly affecting the pace of Middle Eastern goods arriving at ports. The expectation of tight supply has directly pushed up polyethylene prices.
Domestic plant load reduction/shutdown: Some domestic PE plants have reduced or shut down due to raw material issues, and the substantial contraction of the supply side has further strengthened the logic of price increases.
Low inventory operation: Supply contraction combined with traders’ reluctance to sell, social inventory continues to decrease, and the market has a stronger ability to bear price increases under the low inventory pattern.
On the demand side: the stage is weak, but no significant suppression has been formed.
March is the traditional off-season for demand, and the recovery rate of downstream agricultural film and packaging enterprises is relatively slow. However, against the backdrop of rising costs and supply contraction, the impact on the demand side is weakened, and the market is more concerned about the shortage expectations on the supply side. Therefore, the weak demand has not changed the upward trend.
In the short term, the core logic supporting this month’s market has not completely dissipated, and the market is likely to maintain a high volatility pattern, but caution should be exercised against the risk of a pullback.
Supporting factors still exist: the situation in the Middle East has not yet eased, the expectation of supply contraction is still present, and the expected decline in PE imports to ports in April indicates continued supply side support.
Accumulated pullback risk: After a significant increase in prices, downstream companies’ purchasing willingness continues to weaken, and the resistance to high price transactions increases. If supply recovers or oil prices rebound in the future, the market may experience a temporary pullback.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 27th, the price of 0 # zinc was 23202 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.27% compared to the zinc price of 22686 yuan/ton on March 23rd.
The domestic zinc market has emerged from a trend of oscillating saw and then rising, with fierce game between long and short sides. Prices have not moved out of a unilateral trend, and overall show a pattern of narrow fluctuations and a strengthening trend at the end of the trading day. The market reflects both the support from the cost side and the reality of weak supply-demand stalemate.
This week, the zinc price is based on the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s main contract for Shanghai zinc and domestic spot 0 # zinc ingots as the core reference. The price fluctuations are in line with market sentiment and changes in supply and demand news, and the overall trend is stable. The recovery was completed in the late trading session.
raw material end
In terms of zinc concentrate supply, the resumption of production in domestic mines has accelerated, and the production of zinc concentrate in major production areas such as Yunnan has steadily rebounded. Coupled with sufficient imported ore sources, the market supply of ore is relatively loose. The difficulty of purchasing raw materials for smelters has decreased, and the bargaining space has expanded. The processing fee for zinc concentrate continues to rise, and this week the processing fee remains at 1500-1700 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 100 yuan/ton during the week. The increase in processing fees means that the profit margin of smelters has been restored, the shortage of raw materials has been completely alleviated, and zinc prices have lost the upward momentum brought by the shortage of mineral resources. There is no obvious positive stimulus on the raw material side, with loose supply and stable costs, which cannot provide strong upward momentum for zinc prices. This is also one of the core reasons for the sustained fluctuations in the mid week market.
Supply and demand side
The domestic zinc ingot supply side maintains a stable release, the operating rate of smelters remains high, and the production has steadily rebounded month on month. Against the backdrop of sufficient supply of zinc concentrate and rising processing fees, mainstream zinc smelting enterprises in China have shown high production enthusiasm. Except for routine maintenance enterprises, most refineries are operating at full capacity, and the market supply of zinc ingots continues to increase.
The downstream demand in the zinc market has shown a flat performance, and the traditional spring peak season recovery is not as strong as expected. The weak terminal consumption is the core factor suppressing the strength of zinc prices. The downstream of zinc ingots is mainly concentrated in the galvanizing industry, zinc alloy die-casting, batteries, steel anti-corrosion and other fields, among which the galvanizing industry accounts for more than 70%, and the demand trend directly determines the consumption of zinc in the market. In terms of galvanizing enterprises, downstream processing plants have steadily resumed work and production this week, but there has been no significant increase in terminal order volume. Downstream industries such as home appliances, automobiles, and steel structures have slow demand recovery, and galvanizing enterprises have maintained a median operating rate. Enterprises often adopt a strategy of on-demand procurement and buy as you go, with low acceptance of high priced zinc ingots. When prices are weak at the beginning of the week, they replenish on demand and wait and see immediately after prices rise. Large scale replenishment is rare, making it difficult to drive zinc prices to continue rising.
In terms of inventory, social inventory in the zinc market has accumulated slightly this week, and the magnitude of the accumulation conforms to seasonal patterns, which has a certain degree of suppression on zinc prices.
comprehensive analysis
In the short term, it is difficult for domestic zinc prices to experience a unilateral sharp rise or fall. In the future, we need to focus on the recovery progress of downstream galvanizing and die-casting industry orders. If terminal demand is concentrated and released, the surge in demand will break the deadlock of oscillation.

In March 2026, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber market emerged from a unilateral strong upward trend, and the price center shifted significantly upward. According to data monitoring by Shengyi Society, as of March 24th, the benchmark price of domestic styrene butadiene rubber market reached 17516 yuan/ton, a cumulative increase of 33.29% from 13141 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have raised concerns about global crude oil supply, and the high international oil prices have directly pushed up the cost of refined products. As the core raw material of styrene butadiene rubber, butadiene has been affected by the reduction of overseas cracking units, the increase of export orders, and the tightening of domestic spot circulation, resulting in a continuous rise in prices. Coupled with the synchronous rise in styrene costs, the cost pressure on styrene butadiene rubber production enterprises has increased sharply, and some completely outsourced raw material enterprises have fallen into losses, forced to significantly raise factory prices, becoming the core driving force behind price increases. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 24th, the price of butadiene was 16766 yuan/ton, an increase of 67.78% from 9993 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of March 24th, the price of styrene was 10590 yuan/ton, an increase of 38.69% from 7636 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
During the month, some domestic styrene butadiene rubber production enterprises have reduced their load operation of their equipment, and some enterprises have maintenance plans in the later stage. The overall operating rate of the industry is low, and the available market supply continues to decrease. At the same time, the inventory of production enterprises remains low, and suppliers have significantly increased their supply prices, further supporting the upward trend of market prices.
Supply and demand side: Since March, downstream tire production has gradually increased, providing essential support for the styrene butadiene rubber market. As of March 19th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has reached around 7.8%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has reached about 70%.
Market forecast: In the short term, the styrene butadiene rubber market will maintain a high range oscillation trend, with a low probability of a significant decline. On the cost side, geopolitical conflicts are difficult to completely alleviate in the short term, and crude oil and butadiene prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall. Cost support remains stable; On the supply side, the maintenance plan for some devices continues, and the tight market supply pattern has not changed, which has formed a bottom support for prices.

Since March, the domestic formaldehyde market has shown a trend of strong cost support, increased export momentum, loose and controllable supply, and strong demand. Driven by the significant increase in the price of raw material methanol, the overall fluctuation of formaldehyde prices is relatively strong, combined with an increase in export demand, forming a dual benefit. However, the constraint of weak downstream traditional demand is still quite obvious, and the market’s long short game situation is prominent, presenting a structural characteristic of “strong cost, weak demand” as a whole.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 23, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was reported at 1262 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 22.87% compared to the beginning of the month.
Raw material side: Methanol prices have risen significantly, and cost support has been fully utilized
Methanol is the main raw material for formaldehyde production, and its price fluctuations directly determine the direction of formaldehyde production costs. The significant increase in methanol prices this month, on March 20th, saw a surge of 42.73% from the beginning of the month to 3140 yuan/ton in Shengyi Society. The pressure of price increase continues to spread to the formaldehyde industry chain, driving formaldehyde factories to passively follow the price increase.
In the short term, the geopolitical premium of methanol still exists, and the tight supply situation is difficult to quickly ease. It is expected to continue to provide strong cost support for the formaldehyde market, and the downward space for formaldehyde prices is limited.
Export end: Demand continues to rise, easing domestic supply pressure
The demand for formaldehyde exports continues to grow, becoming an important force in driving market demand and alleviating domestic supply pressure. According to the latest data released by the customs, formaldehyde exports in January and February 2026 have laid a good growth foundation, and the export momentum continued to release in March, showing an overall benign trend of “year-on-year increase and month on month stable growth”. Specific data shows that in January 2026, China’s formaldehyde exports reached 236.3 tons, a significant increase of 106.74% year-on-year, with an export value of 962451 yuan; The export volume in February was 124.47 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.64%, with an export amount of 489681 yuan. Despite the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in February, the export volume has declined compared to January, but it still maintains positive growth year-on-year. Coupled with the recovery of domestic production and smooth logistics in March, the export volume is expected to significantly rebound compared to February, further optimizing the domestic formaldehyde supply and demand balance.
The continuous increase in export demand has effectively digested some domestic production capacity, eased domestic supply pressure, and provided certain support for formaldehyde prices. This, combined with the rise in raw material prices, has created a dual benefit, jointly driving the strong volatility of the formaldehyde market this month.
Supply and demand fundamentals: overall loose and controllable supply, weak traditional demand
Supply side: Formaldehyde supply remains stable, overall loose and controllable, the total supply can meet market demand, and there is some room for adjustment, with no obvious supply gap. With the rise of temperature, the production enthusiasm of enterprises has increased, and the supply has gradually increased. However, the overall supply is relatively loose, which has formed certain constraints on the upward trend of prices.

In terms of demand, the support level is average and has not effectively responded to the cost increase, becoming the core factor restricting the significant rise in formaldehyde prices. The artificial board industry, as the largest consumer market for formaldehyde, has shown lackluster demand this month. Affected by the adjustment of the real estate industry and the mandatory upgrading of standards for artificial boards (E1 level elimination, E0/ENF level popularization), the consumption of formaldehyde per unit of board has decreased. Coupled with the fact that the spring decoration season has not yet fully started, artificial board companies have started production in a flat manner, with a mild willingness to receive goods and a multidimensional demand for essential purchases, which has limited driving effect on formaldehyde demand. The adhesive industry is affected by the sluggish demand for terminal real estate, and the demand is also showing a weak trend, further dragging down the traditional demand for formaldehyde.
comprehensive judgment
In the short term, methanol prices will continue to remain high due to the impact of the geopolitical situation, and formaldehyde cost support will continue to exist. Coupled with steady growth in export demand, it is expected that the formaldehyde market will maintain a strong and volatile trend, and the price increase depends on the fluctuation of methanol prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PTA market fluctuated at a high level this week (March 16-20), first rising and then falling. As of March 20, the spot price of PTA in East China was 6673 yuan/ton, up 0.6% from the beginning of the week.
On the crude oil side, the issue of the US Iran conflict obstructing the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, and several oil producing countries near the Persian Gulf continue to reduce production. However, the market is concerned that the prolonged conflict will be detrimental to the economy and demand, and the weak characteristics of actual demand in the medium and long term are difficult to change. The upward momentum of oil prices has significantly weakened, but there is no sign of easing in the short term, and the supply gap still exists, providing stable support for oil prices. As of March 19th, the May settlement price of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $95.55 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures rose and the May settlement price was $108.65 per barrel.
From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, there will be no new production capacity injection in the PTA industry in 2026, and the industry’s production capacity is in a vacuum period, with no new pressure on the supply side itself. The significant increase in cost has led to a continuous decline in PTA processing fees, severely compressing the industry’s profit margins. Multiple PTA production companies have voluntarily reduced their equipment load or arranged for equipment maintenance. Currently, PTA operating loads are around 77%.
On the demand side, March is in the traditional “golden three” peak season of the textile and clothing industry, and downstream polyester factories are gradually increasing their operating rates. The demand for PTA is gradually being released, and there is still a willingness to replenish inventory at low prices. However, due to weak terminal demand and limited acceptance of PTA high prices, purchases under high prices are mainly for essential needs, making it difficult to form large-scale replenishment. Currently, priority is given to digesting low-priced raw materials that were previously hoarded.
Business analysts believe that there is still uncertainty in the geopolitical situation, with strong cost support. However, short-term maintenance facilities are expected to restart in the early stage, and downstream terminal demand is weak, resulting in negative demand feedback and dragging down the upward momentum of PTA. The short-term PTA market is fiercely contested, and the cost side remains the core influencing variable. It is expected that PTA prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level next week.