According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province has risen this month (1.1-1.16), with an average market price of 15800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16650 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 5.38%.
In mid January, the trend of magnesium prices showed an upward trend followed by a downward trend, with an overall fluctuating adjustment. The specific reasons mainly lie in three aspects: cost, demand, and inventory
The cost driven effect is evident
At the beginning of the year, magnesium prices fell to the cost critical point of some magnesium factories, causing some enterprises to fall into a loss making situation. However, as the prices of major raw materials such as ferrosilicon and coal tend to be relatively stable, the pressure on magnesium plants on the cost side has been alleviated, providing a certain degree of support for the rise in magnesium prices.
The trend of increasing demand is significant:
The magnesium alloy market presents a continuous upward demand pattern. By December 2025, the production of magnesium alloys will achieve a month on month growth of 7000 tons, and top enterprises will have full orders and are intensively scheduling production. This positive trend has effectively driven the increase in demand for raw magnesium. At the same time, the deepening of automobile lightweighting policies has become a powerful driving force for the widespread application of magnesium alloys in the fields of automobiles and two wheeled electric vehicles, making the expected release of potential demand for magnesium alloys increasingly strong. However, the purchasing side of traders still shows a cautious attitude, and customers have a low acceptance of high priced products. Their purchasing behavior is quite conservative, and they only follow up on sporadic purchases based on rigid demands. Due to a decrease in enthusiasm from downstream buyers, prices slightly decreased in the middle of the month.
Inventory dynamics:
In the early stages, inventory levels continued to operate at a low level, while at the same time, some magnesium factories chose to shut down due to operating losses, resulting in a significant reduction in the number of available sources in the market. The inventory structure has also been further optimized, such as the relatively concentrated inventory of large manufacturers in the Shenmu area of Fugu, Shaanxi, which together form a strong support for magnesium prices.
Sudden change in market sentiment direction:
After a rapid rise in prices, the bearish atmosphere in the market has become increasingly strong, and end buyers are adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude. The transaction price has been significantly lowered due to the impact of middlemen’s selling behavior.
comprehensive analysis
It is expected that magnesium prices will continue to fluctuate and decline, with the possibility of further decline. The main reason is that the pressure caused by inventory accumulation before the Spring Festival continues to increase, and downstream demand has basically stagnated. At the same time, manufacturers have increased the phenomenon of selling goods to alleviate financial pressure.

Introduction: Methanol is a colorless and clear liquid, and its vapor can form an explosive mixture with air, producing blue fire when burned. Methanol can be miscible with organic solvents such as water, ethanol, benzene, and ketones. Its vapor forms an explosive mixture with air, which can ignite and explode when exposed to open flames or high heat energy. The methanol model monitored by Business Society is of superior quality.
In 2025, the domestic methanol market will be affected by supply growth, import shocks, and weak demand, resulting in a prominent imbalance between supply and demand, and prices will fluctuate downward throughout the year. Accelerating the layout of green methanol under the global “dual carbon” goal injects variables into the long-term development of the industry. Business Society reviews the market in 2025 based on prices, supply and demand, policies, and external environment, and predicts the trend for 2026.
1、 Core Performance of Methanol Market in 2025: Price Fluctuations Downward, Weak Pattern Throughout the Year
（1） In 2025, the methanol market will continue to be weak, with a downward shift in price focus and periodic fluctuations that are difficult to reverse
Overall trend: oscillating downward, with significant amplitude within the year
According to monitoring data from the Business Society Analysis System, the price of methanol for the whole year of 2025 will follow a trajectory of “first falling, then fluctuating, and then bottoming out”, reaching a high point in mid March (driven by Spring Festival stocking), and bottoming out in early June and late November (affected by the off-season and peak import inventory, respectively). The average spot price at the end of the year has fallen by more than 15% compared to the beginning of the year, reaching a nearly three-year low, and industry profitability continues to be under pressure.
（2） Fluctuating Logic: Short term Factors Disturb, Long term Supply and Demand Dominate
The price has rebounded several times in the short term during the year, driven by temporary events such as the Iran Israel conflict, adjustments to coal supply policies, and seasonal stocking. However, due to the lack of sustainability and the core contradiction of supply-demand imbalance, the rebound quickly fell back without forming a trend reversal.
2、 Analysis of core driving factors: supply-demand imbalance as the core, policy and international situation as auxiliary variables
（1） Supply and demand pattern: Dual expansion on the supply side, weak support on the demand side
The imbalance between supply and demand is the core weakness of the market, with a sharp contrast between the dual increase of “production capacity+imports” on the supply side and the “traditional weakness+emerging shortage” on the demand side.
1. Supply side: Double high production capacity and imports, severely loose supply
By 2025, the total domestic methanol production capacity will reach 108.045 million tons per year (+5% year-on-year), with the newly added capacity concentrated in the northwest coal production field. The average annual operating rate of coal to methanol plants is 80%, while that of natural gas plants is 49%. The overall operating rate of the industry exceeds 78%, and the production is sufficient.
The expected import volume is 14.28 million tons (+5.9% year-on-year, reaching a historical high). In the second half of the year, overseas sources of goods will flood in, and port inventory will accumulate to a peak of 1.674 million tons in November, strongly suppressing spot prices.
2. Demand side: Traditional weakness, emerging still in the cultivation period
The core downstream MTO industry is affected by the inverted profit of polyolefins, resulting in long-term losses and low operating levels of external procurement equipment; The growth rate of traditional downstream demand such as formaldehyde and acetic acid has slowed down, and small and medium-sized enterprises have reduced their burden, resulting in weakened methanol digestion capacity.

Emerging demands such as methanol fuel and commercial vehicles are gradually being released, but due to their small scale, limited by standards and supporting facilities, they cannot make up for the traditional demand gap in the short term.
（2） Policy and External Environment: Accelerating Green Transformation, Moderately Disturbing International Situation
1. Policy environment: Dual carbon driven transformation, traditional industries under pressure
The domestic “dual carbon” target promotes the layout of green methanol, and many regions have introduced supportive policies. However, traditional coal and natural gas based methanol still account for over 95%. The policies of coal supply guarantee and environmental protection production restriction have affected the cost and supply stability of traditional methanol, exacerbating profit pressure.
2. International situation: loose global supply, short-term geopolitical disturbances
Global methanol supply is loose, and low international prices are dragging down domestic demand. Events such as the Israel Iran conflict and maintenance of Iranian facilities have temporarily disrupted import volumes, but have not changed the overall situation, and the impact is limited and short-lived.
3、 Market outlook for 2026: Short term stage rebound, long-term pattern reconstruction is expected
（1） Short term (early 2026): Import contraction combined with inventory depletion, prices may experience a temporary rebound
At the beginning of 2026, the winter inspection in Iran led to a contraction in imports, coupled with downstream resumption of work after the Spring Festival, easing port inventory pressure, improving supply and demand margins, and a temporary rebound in prices. However, the rebound height is still fluctuating at a low level due to the limitations of MTO profit recovery and traditional demand recovery.
（2） Long term: The rapid rise of green methanol and the gradual restructuring of the industry landscape
In the long run, the planned growth of green methanol production capacity will slow down, and traditional methanol will still dominate in the next 2-3 years. With the advancement of technology and cost reduction, the potential application of green methanol in the fields of shipping and new energy vehicles is released, and coupled with the pressure of the EU CBAM policy, it will become the core track. High cost traditional equipment is accelerating its clearance, increasing industry concentration, and shifting towards a “green, high-end, and centralized” pattern.
4. Summary
The core contradiction in the methanol market in 2025 is the imbalance between supply and demand, leading to a downward fluctuation in prices. In the short term of 2026, there may be an improvement due to import contraction and inventory depletion, but the industry is still in a transitional period between clearing traditional production capacity and cultivating green production capacity. In the future, breakthroughs and application expansion of green methanol technology, as well as the recovery of traditional demand, will determine the evolution of the industry’s landscape and lead it towards a new pattern of green transformation.

After the high platform volatility of silver prices at the end of December 2025, prices continued to rise in January. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on the afternoon of January 13, 2026, the silver market quoted 21043.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 13.87% from the peak spot price of 18480 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (1.3).
The recent surge in silver prices is the result of the resonance between macro finance, supply and demand fundamentals, geopolitical risk aversion, and fund sentiment. The core driving force is the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the outbreak of industrial demand coupled with the widening supply gap, the tense geopolitical situation driving up safe haven buying, and the combined amplification of volatility by policies such as China’s export controls and speculative funds. as follows:
Macro finance: Expectations of interest rate cuts and weakening of the US dollar lead to reduced opportunity costs
In January 2026, the US CPI and core CPI were lower than expected. The market is betting that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25BP in March will increase to 75%, and the probability of consecutive interest rate cuts in June will exceed 90%, driving down real interest rates and the US dollar index below 100. This will increase the attractiveness of silver denominated in US dollars. For every 1% drop in the US dollar, silver usually rises by 1.5% -2%, and the opportunity cost of holding silver decreases simultaneously.
Developed economies have high debt and weakened US dollar credit, with central banks increasing their holdings of gold and precious metals, and silver benefiting from asset revaluation following gold.
Supply and demand fundamentals: Industrial demand erupts, supply gap continues to widen:
On the demand side, photovoltaics are the largest consumer of silver, with a global silver consumption of 7560 tons by 2025, accounting for 55% of total demand and doubling from 2022; The demand for new energy vehicles, AI servers and other fields is growing synchronously, with industrial demand increasing by 13% year-on-year in 2025.
Supply side: The global silver shortage has lasted for five consecutive years, with a shortfall of about 3660 tons by 2025. In 2026, China will implement a “single review” for silver exports, and 60% -70% of refined silver worldwide depends on China, further tightening supply expectations. And 70% -80% of silver comes from copper lead zinc associated mines, making it difficult for independent silver mines to rapidly expand production capacity. Strikes and grade declines in major producing countries exacerbate supply rigidity.
Inventory side: About 80% of LBMA inventory is locked up or invalid inventory by ETFs, and inventory in key markets such as the previous period is at a historical low. The shortage of spot goods has pushed up expectations of crowding out and price increases.
Geopolitics and funding: Rising risk aversion combined with speculative sentiment, amplified volatility:
Geopolitical events such as the US raid on Venezuela triggered safe haven buying, and spot silver rose 9.72% in the first week of January, with a single day increase of over 6%.
Data shows that COMEX’s net long position in silver speculation is still at a high level, and the influx of funds strengthens the wealth effect. Even though the CME has raised its margin three times (the latest increase in January was 28.6%), speculative enthusiasm has not significantly cooled down.
Policy and structural factors: strategic attributes and short-term catalysis:
Silver has been included in the key mineral list of the United States, and the market expects an increase in demand for strategic reserves; China’s export control intensifies global supply tension, with 44 companies obtaining export qualifications, raising global circulation costs through ‘single review’
Futures delivery and index rebalancing trigger short-term fluctuations, but funds quickly flow back under the support of fundamentals, driving a counter trend upward trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic formic acid market has shown a continuous sideways consolidation trend recently. As of January 2nd, the benchmark price of 85% formic acid in Shengyi Society was 2300 yuan/ton, which was the same as the same period last week (January 5th), a month on month decrease of 20.96%, and a year-on-year decrease of 22.03%.
From the supply side perspective, the formation of a stable market pattern began with the resolution of the trilateral talks before January 5th. The three core formic acid production enterprises in Liaocheng, Feicheng, and Jingzhou, Hubei have reached an agreement through negotiation to implement varying degrees of production reduction and price protection measures. From the subsequent market performance, although the production reduction measures did not immediately change the overall pattern of loose market supply, they effectively curbed the risk of price decline and sent a clear signal of price support. During this period, the shipment situation of upstream enterprises remained stable. Although there was no significant increase in volume, the normal sales rhythm was maintained, and the inventory level showed a mild downward trend.
The demand side performance shows a characteristic of phased changes. On January 6th, there was a clear downstream wait-and-see sentiment in the market, with buyers mainly focusing on maintaining rigid demand, resulting in a relatively light trading atmosphere. But as prices remain stable for a long time, the purchasing pace of downstream enterprises gradually tends to stabilize. By January 12th, the market demand side has formed a stable purchasing trend. It is worth noting that on the 12th, there was a slight discount for end customers with large orders in the market, but this partial adjustment did not shake the overall trend of strong mainstream prices.
On the cost side, methanol, the main raw material for formic acid production, showed a trend of recovery and fluctuation in the market during the same period. From January 4th to 9th, the methanol quotation at East China ports increased from 2245 yuan/ton to 2265 yuan/ton. The mild support on the cost side also provided favorable conditions for formic acid enterprises to raise prices. Based on the comprehensive supply-demand relationship and cost factors, the current formic acid market has formed a balanced pattern of “loose supply but reduced production to support the bottom, stable demand and orderly procurement, and moderate cost support”.
Formic acid data analysts believe that based on the stable performance of both supply and demand, strong willingness of enterprises to raise prices, and a benign cycle of mild inventory decline, it is expected that the domestic formic acid market will continue to maintain a sideways consolidation trend, with limited room for price fluctuations. We need to focus on the continued implementation of upstream production reduction measures and the further release of downstream demand in the future.

This week’s news is calm, but the fundamentals are still weak, with local inventory pressure. However, there is no expectation of a reduction in supply in the short term, and demand remains flat. The main suppliers of acrylonitrile have continuously lowered their quotes, and the market decline has widened. As of January 9th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 7250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from last week; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market is 7200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from last week.
Loose supply:
There is no fluctuation in the equipment during the cycle, and major factories in East China are maintaining high load operation. The 520000 ton acrylonitrile plant in Zhejiang is currently operating at around 85% of its capacity; The 130000 ton acrylonitrile plant in Shandong is currently undergoing maintenance, and the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry remains at around 80%, with no significant changes in the supply and demand fundamentals. According to statistics, as of January 8th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories reached 78.82%, an increase of 0.49% compared to the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 89800 tons, which is+0.05 million tons compared to the previous cycle. The total inventory is about 63500 tons, an increase of 0.255 million tons from last week, with local accumulation continuing and inventory pressure increasing.
Average demand:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries has fluctuated, among which the ABS capacity utilization rate was 69.8%, a decrease of -0.1% compared to last week; After a brief maintenance, the Hangzhou Bay acrylic fiber was restored, and the Jilin Chemical Fiber Huarong plant was restarted. The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises reached 57.58%, an increase of 10.47% compared to last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 54.19%, which was -0.65% compared to last week. Overall, there has been an increase in demand, but the growth rate is not significant, and the overall demand is average.
Cost increase:
During the week, upstream propylene prices continued to rise, leading to increased costs, while acrylonitrile prices continued to decline, resulting in a significant increase in production losses this week. According to statistics, as of January 8th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 5840 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton from last weekend’s 5730 yuan/ton. The average production cost of acrylonitrile is 8234 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of+0.88%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -904 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -373 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, the domestic acrylonitrile market is currently weak and consolidating, with some buying orders following suit after continuous declines, and the pressure of losses is increasing. The market downturn has been temporarily postponed. However, the fundamentals are still weak, and the demand side maintains a flat performance. However, there may be fluctuations in the supply side in the future, and the market has limited room for further decline.