After the holiday, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose
On May 9th, the price of isooctanol was 9066.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 3.03% from 8800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 2.16% from 9266.67 yuan/ton on April 1st. After the holiday, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose compared to the end of April, but the price is still lower than at the beginning of April. In 2026, the Chinese isooctanol market will be in a critical period of tight supply-demand balance and structural transformation. Multiple factors such as new production capacity, cost fluctuation risks, and increased exports will affect the price adjustment of isooctanol. After the holiday, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises decreased, and the supply of isooctanol briefly tightened. The price of isooctanol rebounded and rose after the holiday.
Weakened support for high propylene costs
Entering May, there has been an increase in the resumption of production in propylene enterprises, leading to an increase in propylene supply and weak demand. After the holiday, propylene prices have fluctuated and fallen. However, the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East may be supporting raw material costs, causing prices to “not fall” and propylene prices to remain relatively high in history. The price drop after the holiday is more like a technical correction after a rapid rise, rather than a trend reversal. The high price of propylene supports the bottom price of isooctanol, and manufacturers’ willingness to raise prices has increased, providing support for the bottom price of octanol. But after the holiday, the price of propylene fell, and the cost support of high priced isooctanol weakened.
The operating load of isooctanol decreases
At the end of April, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises increased to 98%, and after the holiday, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises decreased to 88%, resulting in a reduction in isooctanol supply. Some devices still have maintenance plans after the holiday, and there may be contraction on the supply side in the future. The tight supply provides support for the price increase of isooctanol.
2026 is the peak period for new production capacity in the isooctanol industry, and the concentrated deployment of new production capacity will have a significant impact on the market supply and demand balance, increasing the pressure of overcapacity. In the short term, due to changes in market supply and demand and the impact of enterprise maintenance plans, the industry’s operating rate has been widely adjusted, and the fluctuation range of the industry’s operating rate in the medium and long term has narrowed. It is expected that the fluctuation range of the operating rate for the whole year of 2026 will be narrowed to 80% -85%. Due to the impact of new device commissioning, phased environmental protection production restrictions, and enterprise profit adjustments, the elasticity of the supply side has weakened. The overall overcapacity pattern of isooctanol will further intensify, and market competition will become more intense.
outlook for the future market
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s octanol product, on the cost side, the price of propylene has fallen after the holiday, and the cost support of isooctanol has weakened. However, due to the geographical impact of crude oil, the support for propylene’s rise is relatively large, and the space for propylene’s decline is limited. The downward pressure of isooctanol in the future market is insufficient; On the supply side, there is a significant increase in the production capacity of isooctanol, which increases the pressure on the supply of isooctanol. After the holiday, the production of isooctanol enterprises has decreased, and the supply of isooctanol has tightened, providing support for the rise in isooctanol prices; On the demand side, downstream plasticizer companies have stable production, which provides strong support for the demand for isooctanol. The increase in exports has a certain upward support for isooctanol. In terms of the future, the cost is high, the supply is tight in the short term, and there is a long-term surplus. In terms of demand, although isooctanol has export support, there is no structural growth in overall demand, and the situation of oversupply is difficult to change. The upward support for isooctanol in the future is insufficient, but due to geographical factors, the downward space for isooctanol is limited. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will weakly fluctuate and stabilize in the future.

1、 Price trend
In April 2026, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province showed a unilateral downward trend. The price of n-propanol fell in three steps from a high of 8500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and finally stabilized after reaching 7800 yuan/ton on April 16. There was no rebound at the end of the month, and the cumulative decline during the month was 8.24%.
Key points of decline:
April 10th: The first decline, from 8500 yuan/ton to 8100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.71%.
April 16th: Second decline, from 8100 yuan/ton to 7800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.70% (cumulative decrease of 8.24%).
April 16-30: The price remained flat at 7800 yuan/ton and remained relatively stable thereafter.
2、 Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
Supply side: The operating rate of domestic n-propanol plants is relatively high, and the overall market supply is sufficient. The supply side provides limited market support.
Demand side: Downstream procurement demand for coatings, inks, pharmaceuticals, and other industries in the n-propanol terminal is weak, and pre holiday stocking performance is average, mostly based on on-demand procurement. The market lacks large-scale replenishment support, and overall supply and demand transmission is loose.
Industry mentality: Currently, there is a certain level of concern in the market, and there is a lack of confidence in the recovery of demand in the future. Traders have a strong willingness to ship, which has a certain constraint on prices.
3、 Future prospects
At present, the trading atmosphere in the n-propanol market is mild, and the market fundamentals are calm. Although the market support was insufficient in April, as we enter May, with the gradual warming of the weather, downstream production is expected to rebound during the peak season, and demand is expected to rebound. It is expected that the market situation will still fluctuate slightly in the short term, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be monitored.

In April, the market for refined petroleum coke experienced a significant increase followed by a high-level decline, with prices showing a significant upward trend throughout the month. Market sentiment rose strongly at the beginning of the month, but experienced a phase of correction at the end of the month, with overall fluctuations being significant. The mainstream average price of sulfur products in petroleum coke from major domestic refineries was 3541.00 yuan/ton on March 31, an increase of 30.87% compared to 2705.75 yuan/ton on March 1.
Cost aspect: In April, the domestic fuel oil price of 180CST fell sharply. In the first half of April, the international crude oil market fluctuated and the downward trend provided limited support for the domestic ship fuel market. In addition, the domestic ship fuel blended raw material market declined, resulting in light demand in the middle and lower reaches and average purchasing willingness. Terminal demand did not improve, and ship owners were cautious about refueling. At the end of April, the international crude oil market saw a significant increase, supporting the domestic ship fuel market, which showed an upward trend. According to Business Society, as of April 30th, the self extracted low sulfur quotation for 180cst fuel oil is 5800-6300 yuan/ton, and the self extracted low sulfur quotation for 120cst fuel oil is 5900-6400 yuan/ton.
Supply side: In April, domestic refineries entered the annual maintenance season, and some units were shut down for maintenance. However, the amount of imported petroleum coke arriving at the port in the early stage is still being digested, and port inventory remains high. Some refineries are experiencing poor shipments and inventory levels continue to rise. In order to accelerate capital recovery and alleviate inventory pressure, companies have lowered their quotations, leading to an overall weakening of regional prices, especially the concentrated price cuts in the latter half of the year, which further amplified market panic.
On the demand side: In April, the operating rate of terminal processing enterprises in the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry remained low, and traditional downstream orders such as real estate and automobiles were weak, resulting in insufficient procurement for essential needs; At the same time, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity continues to be released, and the social inventory shows a trend of accumulating inventory. The demand for essential petroleum coke has significantly decreased, and many enterprises mainly consume their previous inventory. The strong willingness to lower prices in new purchase orders has directly led to the obstruction of the shipment of locally refined petroleum coke.
Market forecast: There will be no significant improvement in demand for downstream electrolytic aluminum and carbon steel industries in May, with a strong wait-and-see attitude in the market and cautious entry sentiment. The market trading atmosphere is average, and refinery inventory pressure is still present, with active shipment volume as the main focus; There is room for upward pricing in the new round of pre baked anodes, and stable production of pre baked anodes is favorable for the petroleum coke market. The price of petroleum coke may maintain a range oscillation trend in May.

According to the Business Society Spot News, in the second half of April, the domestic dichloromethane market showed a cliff like decline, with a narrow range of low prices. As of April 29th, the mixed price of dichloromethane in Shandong region was 2035 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.19% from the beginning of the month.
fundamental analysis
Cost side: Increased cost inversion, pressure on dichloromethane
The situation in the Middle East has not eased, and imported goods are tight. The methanol market has stabilized and rebounded after a mild decline, making it difficult for prices to fall sharply. Liquid chlorine remains volatile at a high level, and companies have a strong willingness to raise prices. Although raw material prices have fallen, overall prices have remained strong. However, the price of dichloromethane has plummeted, directly leading to a significant increase in cost inversion for companies. The main reason is the passive price reduction and destocking caused by the imbalance between supply and demand (high production+high inventory+weak demand).
On the demand side: weak domestic demand, hindered exports, and high prices suppressing transactions
Weak domestic demand: The demand for refrigerants and pharmaceutical intermediates remains stable, but there is a shortage of orders for small and medium-sized downstream products such as sponges, coatings, and adhesives. Purchasing at high prices is cautious, with a focus on on-demand procurement.
Export obstruction: The prosperity of the export market has fallen from a high level. In March 2026, the export volume of dichloromethane was 15705.94 tons, an increase of 19% compared to the previous month and a decrease of 32% compared to the previous year. The continued impact of Middle East shipping issues on export orders, coupled with high prices, weakened export diversion capabilities, and further exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand in the domestic market. The shipping problem is difficult to solve in the short term, and there is no significant increase in exports.
Supply side: high production and inventory accumulation, high shipping pressure
Operating rate: The industry maintains a high level of around 80%, with the release of new production capacity in Jinhai, Henan, and continued loose supply. Inventory: The effect of price reduction and destocking in the first half of the month was limited, but in the second half of the year, the inventory of enterprises rebounded to a medium high level, and the pressure of shipment forced price reduction and promotion. Under losses, it is difficult for enterprises to significantly reduce production. In early May, inventory remained high, and traders’ willingness to ship increased, suppressing upward potential.
Market forecast:
Dichloromethane is fluctuating at a low level in the short term, with limited rebound and support for decline. The weak balance pattern is characterized by strong cost support, weak demand constraints, and high supply pressure, resulting in a situation where prices remain stagnant and prices are difficult to fall deeply.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market fluctuated at a low level in April 2026, with an average price of 16575 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16615 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 0.24%.
On April 28th, the Business Society Lead Index was 101.06, a decrease of 0.06 points from yesterday, a decrease of 24.59% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (November 29, 2016), and an increase of 35.41% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
In April, the domestic price of 1 # lead ingots showed a trend of rising and falling, with an overall narrow range oscillation pattern.
The supply side is showing a moderate expansion trend.
In the field of primary lead, smelters that underwent previous maintenance in Henan and Hunan regions have resumed production one after another, while Yunnan refineries have maintained stable and orderly production. The weekly operating rate of primary lead has increased to over 64% month on month, indicating a stable overall supply. The processing fee for domestically produced lead concentrate remains stable. Although the tight supply and demand situation in the mining sector has not changed, the benefits brought by the rising prices of by-products such as sulfuric acid and silver have effectively stimulated the production enthusiasm of smelters.
In terms of recycled lead, there is a complex situation where “production reduction expectations” and “production recovery” are intertwined. After the drop in lead prices, waste battery recyclers held onto their stocks and waited for an increase, causing a temporary reversal in profits from recycled lead smelting. Some small and medium-sized factories were forced to reduce production. However, the tight supply of waste battery raw materials at the end of the month has eased, reducing smelting losses and driving the weekly operating rate of recycled lead to a rebound. However, constrained by the shortage of raw materials, the recycled lead industry as a whole is hovering around the breakeven point, making it difficult to return to a state of significant profitability, and the recovery process of production is slow.
demand side
April coincides with the traditional off-season for consumption, and the overall demand side is weak. The market demand for replacing starting batteries for electric bicycles and cars is sluggish, and dealers have accumulated inventory, resulting in significant pressure to reduce inventory. Purchasing attitudes are cautious. Battery companies generally adopt the strategy of “production based on sales and procurement according to demand”, only replenishing lead ingots for essential needs, with extremely low acceptance of high priced sources. It is expected that the replenishment efforts before May Day will also be very limited.
Inventory end
The social inventory is still at a relatively high level in recent years; LME inventory has fallen to a high of 294000 tons, and global inventory pressure has not fully eased.
comprehensive summary
The overall technical aspect presents the characteristics of “weak rebound, top building and decline”. The short-term upward movement of the moving average system at the beginning of the month can quickly decline due to the inability of fundamentals to support it; The double dead cross of the moving average and the return of the price to below the suppression zone indicate that the previous golden cross signal has been falsified, and selling pressure dominates. The current high degree of adhesion and weak directionality of the moving average system is usually a manifestation of market long short equilibrium but unclear trend direction, indicating that prices are difficult to break out of the range and emerge from the trend market, and are likely to continue the range oscillation pattern.