According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 31, 2025, the gold spot market price was 918.62 yuan/gram, an increase of 5.33% from the gold spot market price of 872.11 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month (October 1), and a decrease of 6.85% from the gold spot market price of 986.21 yuan/gram on October 21; The price of gold first rose and then fell within the month, reaching new highs in the early stages with a monthly increase of up to 13.08%. However, it began to decline at a high level in the later part of the month, and the overall price is still at a historical absolute high.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of silver market on October 31, 2025 was 11476 yuan/kg, an increase of 5.38% compared to the average price of 10890.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (October 1), and a decrease of 5.89% compared to the average price of 12194 yuan/kg on October 17; During the month, the price of silver first rose and then fell, repeatedly reaching new highs, with a monthly increase of 11.98%. It began to decline from a high level in the later part of the month, and the overall price is still at a historical absolute high.
Since 2025, the price correlation between precious metals and Brent crude oil has shifted from a short-term weak positive correlation to a long-term significant negative correlation.
From the past year’s cycle, gold and silver have consistently maintained a strong positive correlation. The overall fluctuation of gold and silver prices shows a synchronous trend, and their ups and downs are basically synchronized during most of the time. For example, during the upward phase from late October 2024 to April 2025, as well as subsequent fluctuations and further upward movements, the trend directions of the two are basically consistent.
Reasons for the record high prices of precious metals in October
In October 2025, the prices of precious metals hit a new high, mainly due to the combined effects of expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, increased economic risks in the United States, global central banks increasing their holdings of gold, large-scale capital inflows, and institutional price forecasts. The specific reasons are as follows:
The expectation of a Fed interest rate cut has been strengthened: the market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, and Powell has also stated that there are downward risks to the outlook for US employment and inflation, further consolidating loose expectations. The low interest rate environment has reduced the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, becoming a direct driver of short-term price surges.
The intensification of economic risks in the United States: The government shutdown crisis in the United States has led to the interruption of economic data release, which may also result in a weekly loss of up to $15 billion in output for the US economy. At the same time, the weak job market, coupled with trade frictions caused by tariff policies, has intensified market concerns about economic recession, and investors have flocked to safe haven assets such as gold.
Global central banks continue to increase their holdings of gold: In the first half of 2025, global central banks’ net purchases of gold reached 123 tons, an increase of 22 tons in June alone. The People’s Bank of China has increased its holdings for 9 consecutive months, and 73% of the surveyed central banks plan to increase their holdings in 2026. Global central banks have increased their holdings of gold for five consecutive years, diversifying foreign exchange reserve risks and providing long-term support for gold prices.

Large scale influx of funds into the precious metal market: The People’s Bank of China has increased its holdings of gold for 11 consecutive months, signaling the optimization of foreign exchange reserves. Global gold ETF net inflows hit a historic high in a single month, while silver ETF holdings surged by 95% year-on-year. Retail investors also accelerated their entry through futures, deposit funds, and other channels, driving up precious metal prices with a large influx of funds.
Institutional price increase forecast: Bank of America has raised its 2026 gold price target to $6000, while institutions such as Societe Generale and Goldman Sachs have also adjusted their target prices to the range of $4900-5000. The optimistic expectations of institutions have further strengthened market sentiment, prompting investors to buy precious metals and pushing prices to continuously reach new highs.
Shortage of silver supply: The consumption of silver in new energy, photovoltaics, new energy vehicles and other fields continues to grow, while the global silver supply has been in deficit for five consecutive years, and inventory continues to decline. The London silver market has experienced a rare “spot premium” phenomenon, and “one silver is hard to find” in the market, which has also driven the price of silver to rise sharply.
High volatility probability of precious metal prices in November
The short-term decline in precious metal prices is the result of the resonance of factors such as profit taking, geopolitical easing, liquidity pressure, and deteriorating position structure, which belongs to the stage adjustment after the previous rise. In the future, the precious metal market will experience short-term fluctuations, medium-term differentiation, and long-term improvement. In the long run, factors such as the continuous purchase of gold by global central banks to promote reserve diversification and the long-term challenges faced by the US dollar credit system still provide long-term support for gold prices. The main tone of the precious metal market has not changed yet, but without strong bullish support in the short term, the upward momentum is relatively insufficient. It is expected that the probability of high volatility in precious metal prices in November is high.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of polyester staple fiber first fell and then rose in October. As of October 30th, the average market price of polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6356 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.94% from the beginning of the month.
The market price of polyester staple fiber continues to decline after the holiday. The weak macro caused by the main tariff issue, as well as the continuous negative sentiment of weak cost and weak demand due to the commissioning of PTA new facilities, have led to a downward shift in the price center of polyester staple fiber. In the second half of the year, with the rebound of low oil prices, the overall sentiment of costs and commodities rebounded, and downstream procurement increased during the traditional peak season, which boosted the price of polyester staple fibers.
As of October 29th, the settlement price of the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $60.48 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $64.92 per barrel. OPEC is highly likely to maintain increased production in December, and the supply side will continue to be loose. Without significant improvement on the demand side, the supply-demand pattern is imbalanced. There has been no new progress in the geopolitical situation, so the support given to oil prices is limited.
The domestic PTA market in October showed a trend of first falling and then rising. As of October 30th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4552 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.93% from the beginning of the month. The main factories in Northeast China have restarted their pre maintenance equipment, and the industry’s operating rate is currently around 78%. Next, the new PTA production capacity of 2.7 million tons in East China has been tested and discharged, and overall PTA production will continue to increase. In addition, if PTA companies actively reduce production under low processing fees, PTA may not accumulate inventory in November and December, which will push up the PTA market. But if the reduction in production is limited, it still cannot change the current pattern of sufficient supply.
With the rise in costs driving up the prices of yarn factories, but with limited demand follow-up, the prices have stabilized after the increase. After mid October, with the combination of cold weather and Double Eleven promotions, the demand for winter fabrics increased, and the end weaving orders improved. The enthusiasm of textile enterprises to replenish raw materials increased, and the inventory pressure of downstream yarn factories eased. Overall, the quality of “Silver Ten” is insufficient, and its seasonal strength is highly limited. Most of them focus on digesting raw materials and stocking up in the early stage, while purchasing to maintain essential needs.
Business analysts believe that in the short term, cost support and phased improvement in demand will boost the price of polyester staple fiber, and it is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will show a strong and volatile pattern. But with the new PTA plant put into operation and the early maintenance equipment gradually restored, the cost support will weaken. In addition, the peak demand season is also coming to an end, which limits the upward space of polyester staple fiber prices. We still need to pay attention to price fluctuations on the cost side and terminal demand in the future.

Market situation:
The core feature of the pre acrylic acid market is the “low-level consolidation” caused by “average demand follow-up”. Data shows that as of October 29th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.99% compared to the beginning of this month (6700.00 yuan/ton). This price level is in the mid to low range of the year, indicating that the market lacks upward momentum and the overall trading atmosphere is light.
Industry giants have lowered their acrylic acid quotations in North China to 6200 yuan/ton, and have cumulatively lowered them by 350 yuan/ton in the past two days. The proactive price reduction behavior of leading enterprises not only directly lowers the market center of gravity, but also conveys a clear bearish expectation to the market, exacerbating the sales pressure of other manufacturers and the pessimistic sentiment of the market.
Cost side:
The key bearish factors in the market come from upstream. The price of raw material propylene has declined. As of October 29th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6150.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6% compared to the beginning of this month (6543.25 yuan/ton). As the main cost component of acrylic acid, the weakening of its price has led to a collapse in the cost support of acrylic acid at the production end, opening up space for price decline.
Demand side:
Downstream procurement strategy shift: Under the market mentality of buying up instead of buying down, downstream users hold bearish expectations for future prices. Therefore, they generally adopt the “essential procurement” strategy, which only purchases the amount necessary to maintain current production, rather than hoarding a large amount of goods, which makes it difficult for the overall market transaction volume to increase.
Poor transmission of terminal demand: The main downstream areas of acrylic acid, such as butyl acrylate, may also experience weak terminal demand in their own industries, such as coatings, textiles, adhesives, etc. The downturn in the end consumer market will propagate upwards along the industrial chain, ultimately leading to a decline in demand for acrylic acid.
Continuous supply pressure: At the same time, the operating rate of major production enterprises’ equipment remains stable, and the market supply of goods is sufficient. In the absence of strong demand, stable supply becomes inventory pressure, forcing companies to engage in price competition in order to compete for limited orders.
Future prospects
Overall, without significant positive stimuli, the acrylic acid market is likely to continue its weak consolidation pattern in the short term.
Negative factors: The weakness of propylene on the cost side is difficult to reverse in the short term, while the weak trend of downstream demand is expected to continue, which will continue to suppress market prices.
Potential variables: It is necessary to closely monitor whether there are unexpected shutdowns and maintenance of large production facilities, or whether there are unexpected macro policies introduced to stimulate downstream industries. These factors may change the supply and demand structure in the short term, triggering market fluctuations.
In summary, the current acrylic acid market is in a typical cycle dominated by “weak demand”, with cost collapse and bearish sentiment exacerbating this process. The recovery of the market ultimately depends on substantial improvement in downstream consumer demand.

After repeatedly reaching new highs, the prices of precious metals have fallen sharply
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 28, 2025, the gold spot market price was 908.26 yuan/gram, an increase of 4.15% from the gold spot market price of 872.11 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month (October 1), and a decrease of 7.90% from the gold spot market price of 986.21 yuan/gram on October 21; During the month, the price of gold first rose and then fell, repeatedly reaching new highs in the early stages, but began to decline from high levels in the later stages. Currently, the overall price is still at a historical absolute high.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of silver in the market on October 28, 2025 was 11168.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 2.56% compared to the average price of 10890.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (October 1), and a decrease of 5.50% compared to the average price of 11891 yuan/kg on October 21.
Overview of precious metal and crude oil price trends
Since 2025, the price correlation between precious metals and Brent crude oil has shifted from a short-term weak positive correlation to a long-term significant negative correlation.
Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year
From the past year’s cycle, gold and silver have consistently maintained a strong positive correlation. The overall fluctuation of gold and silver prices shows a synchronous trend, and their ups and downs are basically synchronized during most of the time. For example, during the upward phase from late October 2024 to April 2025, as well as subsequent fluctuations and further upward movements, the trend directions of the two are basically consistent.
Reasons for the recent price correction
The recent decline in gold prices is the result of multiple factors such as geopolitical easing, strengthening of the US dollar, technical correction, changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations, and seasonal decline in physical demand.
1、 Geopolitical risks ease, leading to a sharp drop in safe haven demand
The geopolitical tensions that previously supported the rise in gold prices have significantly eased. In terms of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian President Zelensky said that he was ready to end the conflict, and the two sides reached a statement on the current line of contact as the starting point for negotiations; The situation in the Middle East has also made positive progress, with Israel and Hamas achieving a breakthrough in ceasefire negotiations and reducing the risk of large-scale ground attacks. At the same time, the economic and trade relations between China and the United States have released signals of easing. The Trump administration has temporarily suspended its plan to impose 100% tariffs on China and plans to hold economic and trade talks at the end of October. These changes directly weakened the market’s safe haven demand for gold, causing funds to quickly withdraw from the gold market.
2、 The strengthening of the US dollar suppresses the price of gold
The US dollar index has continued to rebound recently, breaking through the 104 level on October 23 (a new high for the year). Gold is priced in US dollars, and the strengthening of the US dollar increases the cost for investors holding other currencies to purchase gold, suppressing demand for gold. Behind the strengthening of the US dollar is the strong performance of US economic data, the market’s optimistic expectations for the US economic outlook, and the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, which has also increased the attractiveness of the US dollar.

3、 Technical overbought triggers profit taking and selling
The previous increase in gold prices was too large. The London gold price broke through $4380/ounce on October 17th, reaching a historic high, with a cumulative increase of over 30% in the short term. Technical indicators were severely overbought (RSI remained above 70 for several consecutive days). This extreme upward trend has accumulated a large amount of profit taking, and when there are negative signals in the market, investors choose to take profits and trigger chain selling. In addition, the automatic sell order triggered by the programmatic trading system after the price falls below the key support level further amplifies the decline, forming a “kill more” situation.
4、 Changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations and rising opportunity costs
The market’s expectations for the pace of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts are divided. Although most institutions expect a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the end of October meeting, recent statements by Federal Reserve officials have revealed a cautious attitude in a dovish tone, suggesting that the rate cut may not be a policy shift, but rather an “insurance measure”. This uncertainty has led to a decrease in the market’s probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut in December from 94% to 87%, with real interest rates rising from -0.1% to 0.2%. The opportunity cost of holding gold has increased, suppressing bullish sentiment.
5、 Seasonal decline in physical demand
As an important global consumer of gold, India’s peak buying season for Diwali has ended, and the purchasing frenzy generated by holiday demand has receded, entering the traditional consumption off-season in the market. According to data from the World Gold Council, India’s gold imports in October decreased by about 35% month on month, falling from 120 tons in September to 78 tons. The seasonal demand contraction directly weakened the market’s carrying capacity. The domestic market is also showing a cooling trend in demand, with a net outflow of funds in the gold ETF market, reflecting the impact of price drops on retail investor sentiment.
Future forecast
The recent decline in precious metals is the result of a resonance of factors such as profit taking, geopolitical easing, liquidity pressure, and deteriorating position structure, and belongs to a stage adjustment after the previous rise.
In the future, the precious metal market will experience short-term fluctuations, medium-term differentiation, and long-term improvement. In the long run, factors such as the continuous purchase of gold by global central banks to promote reserve diversification and the long-term challenges faced by the US dollar credit system still provide long-term support for gold prices.

Last week (October 20-26, 2025), fundamental demand was weak and order execution was the main focus. Adhesive short fibers continued to show a weak and stable trend, with prices remaining stable. The market trend of raw material dissolution slurry is stable, with average cost support. The finished product inventory of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers is not high, and there is no obvious inventory pressure at present. Downstream cotton yarn manufacturers mainly execute early orders, and the overall market speed is weak and stable. Follow up is needed, and the price of adhesive short fiber market is stagnant and weak.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, last week (October 20-26, 2025), the market price of viscose staple fiber was weakly stable. As of October 26, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 13120 yuan/ton, which was the same as the previous price.
In terms of cost: Last week (October 20-26, 2025), there was little change in the market price of raw material dissolving pulp, with a weak and stagnant situation. The cost side performance was average and limited support. As of now, the price of domestic dissolving pulp is around 6700 yuan/ton, the price of external broad-leaved pulp is around 800 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous pulp is around 870 US dollars/ton. The market prices of auxiliary materials such as liquid alkali and sulfuric acid remain stable but fluctuate slightly, with average cost support.
Low inventory level
The industry supply remains stable, and the current daily operating rate in the market remains at around 75%. The inventory levels of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers are not high, and downstream yarn enterprises pick up goods according to demand. The overall inventory of the adhesive short fiber market has decreased, and the supply fluctuation in the industry is not significant. Some manufacturers have low inventory, and the support from the supply side is limited.
Downstream on-demand pickup
The operating rate of downstream cotton yarn market equipment has slightly increased, and price fluctuations are not significant. As of October 26th, the price of ring spun R30S in Jiangsu region is around 17200 yuan/ton, and the price of ring spun R40S is around 18300 yuan/ton. The market is in a traditional off-season of demand, and downstream cotton yarn market transactions are not ideal. Only a few models of vortex spun cotton yarn have slightly better export orders. Cotton mills mainly consume raw material inventory and replenish urgently needed goods, with no significant improvement in demand.
Future forecast
On the raw material side, the main material dissolution slurry market and the auxiliary material sulfuric acid market are generally stable, while the liquid alkali market may experience a narrow decline. Therefore, it is expected that the market price trend of adhesive short fiber raw materials will decline in the short term, and the cost support will be insufficient.
Supply and demand side: The operating rate of the adhesive short fiber market equipment may not fluctuate significantly, and some manufacturers have low inventory levels. Therefore, it is expected that the supply side support of the adhesive short fiber market will be strong in the short term; The demand in the terminal market has increased, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. It is expected that the driving force of the adhesive short fiber market from the demand side will be limited in the short term.
Overall, the main raw material dissolution slurry market may be weak and stagnant, with sufficient overall supply. Downstream yarn factories mainly sign orders and purchase on demand. Under the interweaving of on-site news, adhesive short fiber manufacturers may maintain their previous quotations. Therefore, Business Society analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will remain stable with small movements in the short term, and the price is expected to be around 13000-13200 yuan/ton for acceptance.