Since 2026, the domestic EVA market has seen a significant increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 13th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 13350 yuan/ton, an increase of 36.69% from 9766 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year.
From January to February, EVA prices fluctuated narrowly, and market trading sentiment was sluggish. At this stage, photovoltaic installation and film production have entered the traditional off-season, with downstream demand mainly focused on rigid procurement and a lack of incremental support on the demand side; At the same time, the domestic EVA equipment is running smoothly, with sufficient supply of imported goods, and the supply and demand are in a weak balance state. Coupled with the high inventory in the early stage of the industry, the pressure of destocking has suppressed the upward momentum of prices, showing an overall trend of bottoming out and oscillation.
Since March, the EVA market has experienced an explosive rise, with prices skyrocketing from a low platform of 10150 yuan/ton to 13350 yuan/ton by mid April, with a cumulative increase of over 30%. There are three main influencing factors: firstly, on April 1st, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products was cancelled. From late March to April, module companies concentrated on rushing to install, directly driving photovoltaic film factories to urgently replenish inventory. EVA for photovoltaic film accounted for 50% -60% of its total demand, and the short-term outbreak on the demand side disrupted the supply-demand balance; Secondly, in the second quarter, domestic EVA equipment underwent a large-scale centralized maintenance, with a phased reduction in supply from April to May. Coupled with fluctuations in overseas geopolitical situations, the import arbitrage window was closed, resulting in a sharp decline of over 50% in imported goods compared to the same period last year, highlighting the tight spot supply pattern; Thirdly, the upward trend in crude oil prices has driven up the prices of upstream raw materials such as ethylene and vinyl acetate, resulting in an increase in EVA production costs. Production enterprises have continuously raised their factory prices, further strengthening the bullish sentiment in the market.
As of early April, EVA construction has started around 7.8-8.10%. During the cycle, the prices of raw materials ethylene and vinyl acetate remained high, and the cost faced EVA support strengthened. As of April 13th, the domestic price of ethylene in Sinopec East China was 9800 yuan/ton, an increase of 62.39% from 6150 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year; As of April 13th, the market price of vinyl acetate in East China was 12300 yuan/ton, an increase of 34.45% from 5875 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year.
With the peak of photovoltaic installation rush passing, the marginal slowdown of downstream export demand, the decline of speculative demand, and the market entering a wait-and-see period of long short game; However, supply side maintenance is still ongoing, and spot supply is not fully relaxed at present, making it difficult for prices to significantly decline in the short term.
Future forecast
Looking ahead to the future, the Business Society Spot Analysis System shows that the EVA spot price curve has gradually approached the 10 day moving average in recent days, indicating that the recent upward momentum has weakened and EVA prices may adjust weakly in the short term; In addition, the current EVA price is at a one-year high, and market operations suggest cautious buying in the short term, with a focus on wait-and-see.

This week, there has been a continuous shortage of overseas supply, with high prices of acrylonitrile in foreign markets and continued support for exports. However, domestic demand is gradually shrinking, and there is a lack of spot buying potential, which has hindered the market from continuing to explore. In addition, negotiations in some northern markets have slightly declined. As of April 10th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 12000-12200 yuan/ton, compared to last week’s 12000-12300 yuan/ton, and the high-end price has dropped by 100 yuan/ton; Short distance delivery to Shandong market is 11700-11800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to last week’s 11750-11850 yuan/ton; CFR South Asia is priced at 1920 US dollars per ton, up 80 US dollars per ton from last week’s 1840 US dollars per ton.
Supply reduction:
Jilin Petrochemical’s 712000 tons/year acrylonitrile unit will undergo rotational maintenance and load reduction this week. During the week, Jilin Petrochemical will carry out maintenance on its propylene glycol plant, resulting in a decrease in industry capacity utilization and supply reduction. According to statistics, as of April 9th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories was 71.58%, which was -2.51% compared to the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 83500 tons, which is less than 30000 tons compared to the previous cycle. Both supply and demand have decreased to a certain extent within the week, and domestic demand remains flat, with little change in enterprise inventory. As of April 8th, the total inventory was around 50000 tons, which was basically the same as last week.
Decreased domestic demand:
This week, downstream users are resistant to high raw material prices, and the overall utilization rate of production capacity in major industries has declined. Among them, Zhejiang Petrochemical and other facilities have reduced their load, and the utilization rate of ABS production capacity is 59.40%, which is -0.8% compared to last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises was 59.38%, unchanged from last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 57.87%, which was -0.49% compared to last week. Overall, both ABS and acrylamide have shown a decrease in negative load, resulting in a decrease in overall demand for acrylonitrile.
Cost increase:
During the week, the price of raw material propylene increased, leading to a rise in costs, while the price of acrylonitrile remained relatively stable, resulting in a narrowing of theoretical profits and worsening of production losses. According to statistics, as of April 9th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 9150 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from last week’s 8805 yuan/ton. The average production cost of acrylonitrile was 11967 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 6.35%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was+183 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of -395 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, the domestic acrylonitrile market is currently in a stalemate and consolidation, the external situation is still unstable, and the overseas supply shortage continues. However, domestic demand remains weak, and spot buying is insufficient. Under local sales pressure, the market is expected to experience a slight decline.

Market Review:
This week, the domestic propylene market showed a strong unilateral upward trend. According to monitoring data, as of April 8th, the benchmark price of propylene has risen to 9591.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.18% compared to 8784.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week. The price not only broke through the previous platform, but also approached the historical peak within a year (9701.00 yuan/ton).
Market analysis:
1. Strong trend: From the multi cycle moving average chart, it can be seen that the price line runs steadily above all short-term (10 day), medium-term (20 day, 30 day), and long-term (60 day) moving averages, and each moving average is in a bullish divergent arrangement, indicating a clear upward trend in the market and sufficient momentum.
2. High risk location: Data shows that the current price has been at a “high” statistical position within one year. From the daily position tracking table, it can be seen that since April 3rd, the “10 day position” and “20 day position” of propylene prices have entered the “high” range and continuously triggered the “super rise” warning, indicating that the price has reached a high-risk range in the short, medium, and long term dimensions.
3. Solid bottom and huge increase: Looking back at longer cycles, the production price in Shandong region reveals the starting point of this round of rise. Since late February, the price of propylene has started from a bottom of about 5841 yuan/ton, initiating the main upward trend. As of April 8th, the cumulative maximum increase has exceeded 72%. This week’s rise is a continuation and acceleration of this large-scale upward trend.
Core driving factors:
The stable support of downstream demand is the key to the upward trend of propylene prices in this round. The profit margin of major downstream products such as polypropylene (PP) is still acceptable, and the operating load is maintained. As of April 8th, the benchmark price of PP (wire drawing) in Shengyi Society was 9666.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.50% compared to the beginning of this month (9250.00 yuan/ton). Stable demand has been formed for the procurement of raw material propylene. At the same time, some upstream equipment maintenance has caused a slight tightness in the supply side, jointly pushing up the price of propylene.
Conclusion and Prediction:
Based on the comprehensive analysis of the spot trading method of the Business Society, the current propylene market exhibits typical characteristics of “strong trend and high position”. Although the upward trend is very strong, due to the fact that the price has been at an absolute high level (with extremely low position scores) in the short, medium, and long term, the system evaluates that the current situation does not meet the conditions for a “buying point”. This indicates that the market has accumulated a large number of profit opportunities, and the risk of technical correction is rapidly increasing.
Trend prediction: In the short term, there is a possibility of an inertial upward trend in propylene prices and a pre-test high (around 9700 yuan/ton). But we must be vigilant that any positive news or weak downstream acceptance may trigger drastic price fluctuations.
Risk Warning: The alarm for multiple cycles of “super inflation” has been triggered, and the price is at a statistically extreme high. The market sentiment has entered a frenzy stage, and chasing high risks is extremely risky. Suggest downstream enterprises to purchase according to their needs and avoid excessive stockpiling; Traders should pay attention to locking in profits and prevent the risk of rapid rebound after a surge.
Key focus: In the future, it is necessary to closely monitor the profitability and changes in production of downstream polypropylene and other products, as well as the dynamics of upstream propylene supply facilities. These will be key factors affecting whether propylene prices can remain stable at a high level or turn around.

Cobalt prices fell sharply on April 3rd
According to the Commodity Cobalt Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the cobalt price on April 3rd was 415500 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 2.46% compared to the cobalt price of 426000 yuan/ton on April 1st. The domestic spot price of cobalt fell sharply in April. Congo (Kinshasa) has further announced new regulations on cobalt ore export quota control. The Q4 quota for 2025 can be extended up to the end of April, and the Q1 quota for 2026 can be extended up to the end of June. Cobalt ore from Congo (Kinshasa) may be shipped in bulk in April; The approval of cobalt intermediate products is slow, and the shipment progress of cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo is slow. The expected supply of cobalt in April briefly increased, resulting in a decrease in demand and a sharp drop in cobalt prices in April.
Overseas markets: Cobalt prices fall in April
The cobalt price in April changed from the upward trend in March and began to fluctuate and decline. The international cobalt price has fallen, which is bearish for the domestic cobalt market.
Supply side: New export quota regulations for cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo lead to increased supply
As a supplier of 70% of the world’s cobalt raw materials, the mining regulatory agency of the Democratic Republic of Congo has officially issued new regulations on cobalt ore export quota control, setting a final deadline for global miners to fulfill their obligations: mining companies must complete all outstanding export quotas for the fourth quarter of 2025 before April 30, 2026. Any unused quotas beyond the deadline will be fully confiscated and transferred back to the national strategic reserve. At the same time, it is clarified that the export quota for the first quarter of 2026 can be extended to complete shipment before June 30, 2026, and can be implemented synchronously with the quota for the second quarter. The total quota allocated for the whole year of 2026 is still valid. The introduction of new regulations may lead to concentrated shipments of cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo in April, increasing short-term supply expectations in the cobalt market and intensifying downward pressure on cobalt prices.
Market Overview and Future Outlook
According to data analysts from Shengyi Society, the release of new cobalt ore export quota control regulations in the Democratic Republic of Congo has led to an increase in short-term cobalt ore outflow expectations and supply in the cobalt market. At the same time, due to multiple restrictions on operations and logistics under the new cobalt quota system, the approval process for cobalt exports in the Democratic Republic of Congo has been slow, resulting in a serious delay in the implementation of allocation quotas for most enterprises, limited increase in cobalt market supply, and limited pressure on cobalt price decline. Overall, the increase in supply and demand is weak, and it is expected that cobalt prices will slightly decline in April.

Market Trend Overview
The trend of the propylene market this week is stable. As of April 2nd, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society is 8784.33 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month.
Open the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society’s spot trading platform, and you will find that the yellow price line is winding around the 10 day moving average of the red line and the 20 day moving average of the blue line, presenting a typical “high-level oscillation” pattern.
The current “one-year position” indicator shows a medium to high level. This indicates that although the current price has not broken through the previous high, it is still in a relatively strong area at a higher price point.
Behind this’ high-level consolidation ‘is actually the extreme tug of war between supply and demand:
Supply side: The operation of refinery facilities is relatively stable, although there are some expected maintenance, the overall supply has not experienced a cliff like decline, and the supply is relatively sufficient, suppressing the impulse for further price increases.
On the demand side, downstream derivatives such as polypropylene (PP) have shown average performance, and there is a strong demand for the purchase of raw material propylene, without a large-scale hoarding trend.
Simply put, it means that the upstream has a strong willingness to raise prices, while the downstream has a weak willingness to receive goods, resulting in a stalemate between the two parties.
Business Society System Prediction: Beware of Changes after “1-Year Overrise”
Based on the core data of the Business Society’s commodity market analysis system, it is necessary to pay attention to two key signals:
1. Warning signal on: The bottom of the system clearly indicates “1-year super rise”. This means that the current price is already in the high-risk zone of the past year. According to the mean regression theory, it is difficult for prices to maintain a long-term super high range, and downward pressure is accumulating.
2. Location score characteristics: Currently, the 10 day, 20 day, and 30 day location scores are all at a “medium high level”. According to the system logic, when the short-term and medium – to long-term moving averages show a “tangled” state and the position is high, it often indicates an increase in trend uncertainty.
Overall, the supply-demand game in the propylene market is expected to continue in the short term, with prices likely to remain in a high volatility pattern, fluctuating between 8500-9200 yuan/ton. In the medium term, with the gradual release of supply side increment, if there is no significant improvement on the demand side, the upward momentum of the market will gradually weaken, and we need to be vigilant about the risk of price correction. Focus on international oil price trends, changes in downstream plant operating rates, and overall market transactions in the future.