Starting from mid December, PTA prices continued to strengthen. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the end of December, the spot price of PTA in East China was 5045 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.16% compared to December 16th.
The supply and demand pressure of PTA is not high, and mainstream factories have actively stopped for maintenance and load control under low processing fees. The maintenance of PTA units is more concentrated in November and December. As of December 29th, the PTA production rate is around 72%, and the market supply is expected to continue to decrease. At present, PTA continues to reduce inventory, although there was a seasonal decrease or slight accumulation of downstream polyester inventory in January and February, the overall inventory pressure is low and the fundamentals are stable.
Crude oil staged low rebound, boosting costs. As of December 26th, the settlement price of the February WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $56.74 per barrel, and the settlement price of the February Brent crude oil futures contract was $60.60 per barrel. The current situation between the United States and Venezuela is unstable, but it is not expected to escalate comprehensively in the short term, and there is an expectation of easing the situation between Russia and Ukraine. The support for oil prices from the geopolitical situation will also weaken.
The downstream market lacks the driving force to chase after the rise, and polyester suffers from both losses and production cuts. The decline in load has accelerated in the mid to late months. The winter orders for terminal weaving have basically ended, and due to the delayed Spring Festival in 2026, spring orders are generally postponed, mainly consisting of small and scattered orders. Under the bearish expectation, some textile factories may take early holidays.
Business analysts believe that as the off-season for textiles deepens, downstream enthusiasm for chasing price increases is hindered. However, the current PTA raw material support is strong, coupled with low processing fees, and it is expected that PTA will continue to maintain a strong pattern in the short term.
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