Aluminum prices fluctuated horizontally in July
Aluminum prices fluctuated horizontally in July. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 31, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20596.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.91% from the market average price of 20786.67 yuan/ton on July 1.
Fundamental Overview
1、 Supply side: Limited incremental operation at high levels
The current operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is at a high level, and the industry operating rate is close to 97%. The room for further improvement is very limited. However, there is still a slight increase in weekly operating capacity, and the overall production remains at high load. There is no obvious sign of contraction in the short-term supply side. ​​
As the core raw material for electrolytic aluminum production, the pressure of oversupply of alumina is significant. Stimulated by the recovery of industry profits, alumina production capacity has been released to historical highs, domestic production is showing a trend of recovery, and total inventory is also continuously increasing. Although the alumina warehouse receipts are still at a low level in the short term, the problem of tight delivery capacity in Xinjiang is expected to be alleviated in August, which will suppress the speculative sentiment in recent months. In the long run, the trend of alumina accumulation is relatively clear. ​
2、 Demand side: off-season affects production and declines
At present, it is in the off-season of traditional consumption, and the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has declined. The overall pressure on aluminum production is low, and the willingness of downstream enterprises to take over at a high level is insufficient. ​
From the perspective of specific downstream industries, in the field of new energy vehicles, the retail sales of passenger cars in China increased by 15% year-on-year from July 1st to 27th, but decreased by 17% compared to the same period last month, indicating a weakening trend in demand compared to the previous month; In the field of photovoltaics, the overall output of photovoltaic modules in August showed limited month on month changes, and the driving force for aluminum demand was insufficient. Overall, downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and spot transactions of aluminum ingots are average, putting pressure on spot price markups. ​
3、 Inventory side: Short term rebound with relatively low year-on-year growth
At the beginning of the week, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 514000 tons, an increase of 20000 tons from last Thursday, showing a trend of accumulated inventory; The spot inventory of aluminum bars is 158500 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from last week, with relatively small fluctuations. Overall, although inventory has rebounded in the short term, it is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year, which has provided some support for aluminum prices.
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4、 Policy and market sentiment: intertwining multiple factors
Domestically, the policy statement did not exceed expectations, and the sentiment of “anti involution” has eased. The long-term tone of “promotion fees and stable growth” remains unchanged, and the support for market sentiment is limited. At the same time, the statement of “governing disorderly competition in accordance with the law” in the alumina industry has intensified short-term market fluctuations. ​​
On the overseas front, the Federal Reserve has remained inactive for five consecutive meetings, with two members supporting a rate cut. However, Powell did not provide clear guidance on the September rate cut, emphasizing the uncertainty of tariffs and inflation, and stating that the job market has not weakened and policy uncertainty still exists. However, the easing of tariffs between China and the United States and the IMF’s upward adjustment of growth expectations have boosted market optimism in the short term, but it is difficult to offset the suppression of domestic off-season demand. ​

5、 Price Expectations and Trading Strategies
In terms of spot aluminum ingot prices, they are supported by low inventory in the short term and maintain high volatility. The core fluctuation range can be focused on 20400-20900 yuan/ton; In the medium to long term, due to the suppression of demand during the off-season and the rebound of aluminum ingot inventory, it is expected that price fluctuations will be weak. However, due to the low year-on-year inventory, the space below is limited. ​​

Looking back at July 2025, the nylon silk industry has shown a weak trend of operation, with monthly average prices continuing to decline. The weak and low price of raw material caprolactam during the month has a negative impact on the cost of nylon yarn; And the market supply is sufficient, but downstream demand has not improved, the trading atmosphere is not strong, and the textile terminal business is sluggish. Overall, both ends are dominated by bearish sentiment, and the monthly average price continues to decline.
Nylon filament prices continue to weaken and decline
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the monthly average price of nylon filament will continue to decline weakly in July 2025. As of July 30, 2025, DTY (premium product) of nylon filament in Jiangsu region; 70D/24F) quoted 14320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 540 yuan/ton from the previous month, a monthly decrease of 3.63%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) quoted 12050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 475 yuan/ton from the previous month, with a monthly increase of 3.79%; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 14900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 550 yuan/ton from the previous month, with a monthly increase of 3.56%.
Weakness and decline in raw materials
In terms of cost: In July 2025, the spot market price of caprolactam was weak, and the settlement price of Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam in July was 9060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 660 yuan/ton from the settlement price in June. As of July 30, 2025, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 9020 yuan/ton, with a weak decline in price and a monthly decrease of 3.77%. The market for high-speed spun nylon PA6 chips is under downward pressure, and the market price of high-speed spun nylon PA6 chips has fallen within the month. The price of nylon PA6 chips has dropped by 1.26%, and the cost support is weak.
Supply and demand: In July, the overall supply of nylon filament market did not fluctuate significantly, but transactions were not smooth, so the inventory pressure of nylon factories did not decrease. Downstream orders continue to be low, raw fabric inventory levels are high, coupled with low profits, slow payment collection, and tight funds, resulting in low enthusiasm for weaving enterprises to start production, only maintaining rigid demand production, and poor shipments from nylon silk factories, making it difficult to find favorable support from the demand side.
Future forecast
Driven by the sentiment of “anti involution” in the pure benzene market in August, prices may see a slight rebound, which will slightly boost the cost of raw material caprolactam, and the price of caprolactam may rise slightly. Affected by this, the cost side of nylon PA6 has formed favorable support, with polymerization factories reporting or experiencing slight increases, and downstream buyers buying up instead of buying down. The trading atmosphere has improved, but terminal demand is still not strong, which may suppress the price increase of nylon PA6. The demand for nylon filament terminals is unlikely to improve, and the nylon production in August may be lower than that in July. Overall, the supply chain of the industry is still abundant. On the demand side, downstream weaving enterprises are in the off-season for domestic sales orders. Overall, it is expected that the cost side will be relatively strong, the supply pressure will be greater, and downstream weaving enterprises will maintain their production of essential needs. Demand will still be weak, and there will be insufficient positive news. Business analysts predict that nylon yarn may be under weak pressure next month, with limited price fluctuations.

1、 Market price trend
Affected by the supply and demand situation, the price of acrylic acid in the market continued to decline this week. The specific price data may vary by region and different specifications, but the overall trend is downward. On July 29th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6750.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.81% compared to the beginning of this month (7166.67 yuan/ton).
2、 Supply situation
The load of the acrylic acid production plant has remained stable recently, which means that the supply in the market has not decreased due to production issues. However, this may also lead to the gradual accumulation of finished product inventory in the market.
Although the production equipment load is stable, the finished product inventory in the acrylic acid market is being digested. This may be due to a rebound in downstream demand or corresponding inventory management measures taken by manufacturers. However, the speed of inventory digestion may still be insufficient to prevent a decline in market prices.
The continuous low price of propylene has weakened cost support, and the room for enterprises to lower prices has expanded. As of July 29th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6413.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.58% compared to the beginning of this month (6720.75 yuan/ton).
3、 Demand side
Downstream industries are weakening: The demand for end use applications (such as coatings, adhesives, textiles, etc.) is sluggish, especially in industries such as construction and automobiles, which have experienced a decline in business prosperity, leading to a low willingness to purchase. Export restrictions: Shrinking demand in overseas markets or trade barriers (such as anti-dumping) may suppress exports and exacerbate domestic oversupply.
4、 Future forecast
It is expected that the domestic acrylic acid market will maintain a weak consolidation trend in the short term. This is mainly due to weak downstream demand and relatively stable supply in the market. Therefore, until there are obvious favorable factors, it may be difficult for the price of acrylic acid in the market to rebound significantly. However, it should also be noted that the market is always full of variables, and any policy adjustments, industry dynamics, or macroeconomic changes may have an impact on market prices.
In summary, the acrylic acid market continued its downward trend this week, mainly due to the results of the supply-demand game. In a situation where supply is relatively stable but demand is weak, it is difficult for market prices to rebound significantly. Therefore, cargo holders and downstream users need to closely monitor market dynamics and industry changes in order to develop reasonable procurement and sales strategies.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 7383 yuan/ton on July 21 and 7450 yuan/ton on July 25, an increase of 0.90%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9383 yuan/ton on July 21st and 9466 yuan/ton on July 25th, an increase of 0.89%. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 7957 yuan/ton on July 21st and 7975 yuan/ton on July 25th, an increase of 0.22%.
Recently, polyethylene has seen a narrow upward trend. Boosted by favorable macroeconomic policies, polyethylene prices are tentatively rising. In terms of equipment maintenance: According to data statistics, during the period from July 18th to 24th, the polyethylene equipment suffered a maintenance loss of approximately 112000 tons, a decrease of 4900 tons compared to the same period last week. The supply side is abundant. Agricultural film is in the off-season of demand, with poor market order follow-up and low operating rates; The operating rate of the packaging film industry has declined compared to the previous period, and the demand side is suppressing the polyethylene market. The crude oil on the cost side oscillates and lacks support for polyethylene.
Supported by macro policies, the mentality in the market has improved somewhat; But the demand side is not following up smoothly, and it is expected that polyethylene will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range, with limited upward space.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province continued to rise this week (7.21-7.25), with an average market price of 16425 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 17225 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 4.87%.
The magnesium market has shown strong upward momentum. At the beginning of the week, the quotation continued the level of last weekend and started a moderate upward trend. In the middle of the week, the price jumped above 17000 yuan/ton and continued to rise. As the weekend approached, the mainstream transaction price had steadily risen.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, the spot circulation inventory in the magnesium production process has always been maintained at a low level. Due to tight order schedules, some companies have reluctantly suspended their quotations, and the scarcity of spot resources has become increasingly significant. At the same time, holders of low-priced goods in the market are generally reluctant to sell, which has led to a strong sentiment, causing the market supply and demand situation to quickly shift from the previous loose situation to a tight state, further enhancing the driving force for price increases and driving prices to continue rising.
On the demand side, with the concentrated release of demand for magnesium in industries such as new energy vehicles and two wheeled electric vehicle components, the market demand scale is rapidly expanding. In addition, influenced by the prevalent consumer psychology of “buying up, not buying down” in the market, the purchasing enthusiasm of application end enterprises and traders has been fully ignited, thus forming a strong upward force on magnesium prices from the demand side, injecting momentum into the rise of magnesium prices.
Raw material end
Recently, coal, ferrosilicon, and other essential raw materials for magnesium smelting have seen their prices continue to rise. This trend has directly increased the cost burden of magnesium production, thereby building a stable bottom line for magnesium prices and becoming an important driving force behind the rise in magnesium prices.
comprehensive analysis
Recently, the non-ferrous industry as a whole has shown a significant upward trend, which has had a certain driving effect on the magnesium market. However, as of this week, the core factors behind the rise in magnesium prices still lie in the weak supply and strong demand pattern presented at the supply and demand level, as well as the cost push brought about by the rise in raw material prices. Looking ahead to the future market, it is expected that magnesium prices will maintain a strong and stable trend in the short term.