According to monitoring data from Business Society, the market for adipic acid has been continuously rising since March, with prices breaking through 10000 yuan and surging by over 27%. On March 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8300 yuan/ton, and on March 10th, the average market price of adipic acid was 10600 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 27.71%.
The main factors affecting the rise of adipic acid in this round of market trend
On the cost side: Due to geopolitical factors, international crude oil prices continue to rise, directly driving the prices of upstream raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone to strengthen. The raw material market has surged, supporting the rise of adipic acid market.
Pure benzene: In early March, the main listing price of pure benzene was raised to 7200 yuan/ton, and the average spot price in East China once rose to 7270 yuan/ton. At the same time, several major factories raised their listing prices multiple times in early March, gradually pushing them from 9000 yuan/ton to over 12000 yuan/ton. Although on March 10th, crude oil experienced a pullback and the pure benzene market surged and fell back, with prices returning to around 9600 yuan/ton, overall it still rose by more than 50% compared to the beginning of the month.
Cyclohexanone, as another major raw material for adipic acid, is also driven by the crude oil market. In March, some cyclohexanone units entered the maintenance period, and the overall market supply decreased. Spot inventory was at a low level, and manufacturers had a strong willingness to raise prices. From March 1st to 10th, the price of cyclohexanone increased from 7250 yuan/ton to 9900 yuan/ton, an increase of over 36%.
Short term sentiment: As the price of adipic acid continues to hit new highs, market participants are generally cautious, and manufacturers have even experienced lockdowns. On the morning of March 10th, there was a pullback in raw material prices, leading to an increase in market sentiment.
Requirement: Terminal (such as pulp, sole stock solution, PBAT, etc.) rigid procurement is the main focus. However, due to high costs, some traditional demand industries have generally resumed production and are mainly cautious about high priced raw materials. The market is in a game between cost and demand.
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, international crude oil prices will continue to remain high, mainly boosted by the raw material market. Due to the high market demand for adipic acid and cautious terminal demand, there will be insufficient momentum for a sharp rise in the future adipic acid market, with a slight correction being the main factor.
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