According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on March 6th, the reference market price for domestic silicon metal # 441 was 11110 yuan/ton. Compared with March 1st (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 11180 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.63%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week, the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 has shown an overall weak downward trend. During the week, the spot market prices of metal silicon grades 553 #, 521 #, 441 #, 421 #, 3303 # in many regions including East China, Kunming, Tianjin, Shanghai, etc. have been adjusted downwards to varying degrees, with a reduction of about 50-100 yuan/ton. As of March 6th, the reference price for metal silicon 441 # in East China is around 10900~11200 yuan/ton, in Kunming it is around 11100~11300 yuan/ton, in Huangpu Port it is around 11000~11200 yuan/ton, in Tianjin it is around 10900~11000 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai it is around 11400~11500 yuan/ton.

analysis of influencing factors

In terms of supply and demand: This week, the overall demand performance of the silicon metal market remains sluggish, and downstream users are cautious about replenishing raw materials. Some silicon companies in the southwest region have stated that the resumption of work and production during this year’s flood season has not yet been determined, and the overall supply has slightly increased, mainly from northern silicon plants. The transmission between supply and demand is slow.

In terms of raw materials: This week, the performance of the silica market is temporarily stable, and downstream metal silicon has average demand for raw material silica, with market consolidation being the main focus. This week, the silicon coal market experienced a downward trend, affected by the decline in the coke market, resulting in a weak decline in the silicon coal market and loosening the cost support for metallic silicon.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is relatively light, and downstream demand is still gradually recovering. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly be weak and stable, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6680 yuan/ton on February 1st, and 6760 yuan/ton on February 28th. The price of thermal phosphoric acid in China has increased by 1.20% this month.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 7100 yuan/ton on February 1st, and 7133 yuan/ton on February 28th. The price of wet process phosphoric acid in China has increased by 0.47% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The phosphoric acid market has fluctuated and risen slightly this month. The market for raw material yellow phosphorus has weakened, and cost support has weakened. But the market demand is still acceptable, downstream purchases are made on demand. Stable trading. As of February 28th, the ex factory price of 85 thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-7000 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan region it is around 6550-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6700-7200 yuan/ton.

Raw material yellow phosphorus market. This month, the market price of yellow phosphorus first rose and then fell. In the first half of this month, the price of yellow phosphorus increased slightly. Yellow phosphorus manufacturers are mainly raising prices, the market supply is tightening, demand is stable, and there is support on the supply and demand side. In the second half of this month, the price of yellow phosphorus began to decline. The market supply is loose, downstream demand for replenishment is high, and purchasing intentions are low, resulting in many low-priced transactions.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has been consolidating and operating recently. Raw material yellow phosphorus manufacturers are mainly raising prices, and there are signs of an upward trend in the market. The phosphoric acid market remains on the sidelines, with a balanced supply and demand. It is expected that the domestic phosphoric acid market will stabilize and operate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of February 28th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China was 7766.67 yuan/ton. The cyclohexane market is mainly balanced in supply and demand, with insufficient downstream demand and a narrow and weak overall market operation. Currently, the mainstream market price remains around 7800 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: Currently, the overall market is running steadily, with insufficient support from the upstream cost side and excessive inventory pressure. Currently, there is a boost in some equipment news in the pure benzene market, and short-term consolidation of the pure benzene range in East China.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that cost support is poor. It is expected that the cyclohexane market will remain stable in the short term.

In February 2025, the price center of the adhesive short fiber market will increase. As of February 28th, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 13720 yuan/ton, an increase of 260 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.18%. The upstream raw material market prices remain firm, with cost support remaining. The inventory level in the market is not high, and coupled with the increasing operating load of downstream yarn factories, businesses have sufficient confidence in the future. Some adhesive short fiber manufacturers have raised their prices, resulting in an increase in high priced sources in the market and a rise in the monthly average price of adhesive short fiber.

In terms of cost: In February, the market price of the main raw material for adhesive short fibers, dissolved pulp, was high. Due to the continued tight situation of the South American rainy season or export restrictions in Southeast Asia, the price of dissolved pulp may remain high, supporting the cost of adhesive short fibers. The market price of auxiliary liquid alkali has risen at a high level, while the market price of sulfuric acid has fallen narrowly. The market price of raw materials has shifted upwards, and the average production cost of adhesive short fibers has increased.

Supply and demand: From the supply side perspective, February 2025 falls around the Spring Festival, and the pre holiday stocking and post holiday resumption pace of domestic textile factories will directly affect short-term demand. In February, there was little fluctuation in the supply of adhesive short fibers in the market, and the inventory levels of various manufacturers were not high. There was no sales pressure at the moment, and the supply side provided some upward momentum for the market. The operating rate of downstream cotton yarn market is not high, and prices are mainly stagnant. Downstream yarn manufacturers plan to resume work slightly later. Although adhesive short fiber manufacturers have raised their quotes and increased on-site inquiries, actual transactions are limited and demand side performance is poor.

Market forecast:

The main material dissolution slurry market and auxiliary material liquid alkali market have strong prices, while the high cost of adhesive short fibers remains stable. In the short term, the adhesive short fiber market is expected to operate stably, with little fluctuation in industry supply and low inventory levels on site, and there is currently no significant inventory pressure. March is the traditional peak season for textiles, and downstream yarn mills may release their demand for replenishing inventory in a concentrated manner. Business analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will be strong in March, with prices remaining stable and fluctuating, mainly rising. Prices are expected to be around 13700-14000 yuan/ton for acceptance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has experienced a decline followed by an increase since February, with an overall upward trend. As of February 27th, the spot rubber market in China was around 17132 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.73% from 16840 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The high point during the cycle was 17400 yuan/ton, and the low point was 16510 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, downstream production remained low, and demand faced insufficient support from natural rubber, resulting in a slight decrease in natural rubber prices; On the one hand, downstream production has increased in the later stage, and on the other hand, the supply of raw materials in the market is tight and prices remain high, driving the overall upward trend of natural rubber.

Since February, the main rubber production areas overseas have gradually stopped cutting, with Vietnam’s production areas approaching a complete shutdown. The southern and northeastern regions of Thailand account for about 50-60% of the shutdown area. In addition, the domestic natural rubber production areas are in a shutdown period. In February, the high and firm prices of natural rubber raw materials at home and abroad have provided some support for natural rubber prices. As of February 26th, the price of Thai glue was 70.50 baht/kg, an increase of 4.44% from 67.50 baht/kg at the beginning of February.

The natural rubber inventory increased slightly in February, which had a bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of February 23, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 575600 tons, an increase of 7000 tons compared to the previous period.

Since mid to late February, downstream tire production has gradually increased, and demand is facing the urgent support of the natural rubber market. As of February 20th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 8.0%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.7% of the load.

Market forecast: Currently, there is an increase in the cessation of cutting in domestic and foreign raw material production areas, and the price of natural rubber raw materials remains high, which provides some support for natural rubber; With the gradual increase in downstream production after the holiday, there is a certain degree of rigid demand support for natural rubber, but the high inventory of Tianjiao Port still has a certain negative impact on the Tianjiao market; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will experience strong fluctuations at high levels in the short term.