1、 Trend analysis
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices rose and fell first this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 118633.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.47% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 8.53%.
According to the weekly chart of Shengyi Society, nickel prices have fallen 7 times and risen 5 times in the past 12 weeks, with a slight decline in nickel prices recently.
Nickel industry chain
On February 11th, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the third time this year, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.5% -3.75% and sending a “dovish but cautious” signal. The Federal Reserve announced the launch of the US $40 billion short-term treasury bond bond purchase plan, which is expected to inject about US $55 billion of liquidity into the financial system, further lower the real interest rate, and stimulate the flow of funds into the commodity market.
In terms of news, Indonesian President Prabowo is intensifying efforts to rectify the mining industry. The latest measure is to impose high fines on mining companies that operate illegally beyond the forest permit scope. The fines will depend on the number of years of violation and the type of commodity being mined, with nickel mining companies facing the most severe punishment.
On the supply side, Indonesia’s nickel production increased significantly by 16.7% year-on-year from January to October 2025. In recent years, Indonesia has attracted a large amount of investment through its “downstream” strategy, accelerated the landing of smelting capacity, and continued to release supply increments to the global market. The domestic market also shows a trend of capacity expansion, with a year-on-year increase of 21.8% in refined nickel production during the same period.
In terms of demand, both core areas on the demand side have shown weakness. The traditional consumer main stainless steel industry is showing a “sluggish peak season” trend, with downstream industries such as real estate and machinery experiencing slower than expected demand recovery, resulting in a low purchasing willingness of stainless steel enterprises and limited ability to digest nickel raw materials. The field of new energy batteries has also failed to provide effective support. Although the production and sales of new energy vehicles have maintained growth, the demand for nickel used in batteries has not met market expectations.
In summary, the global nickel surplus pattern is difficult to fundamentally change, and the contradiction between supply growth and weak demand will continue to exist. The expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut continues to rise, and the market’s expectation for loose monetary policy provides a financial support for nickel prices. The nickel mining and smelting process in Indonesia has formed a large-scale cost advantage. When prices approach or fall below the cost line, some small and medium-sized production capacity may experience a reduction in production, which naturally supports prices. It is expected that nickel prices will maintain a wide range of fluctuations.
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