I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association (average ex factory price of SG5 by calcium carbide method), the price of domestic PVC on October 29 was 6637.5 yuan / ton, down 0.26% compared with the price of domestic PVC on the previous day (28), up 0.49%%.

II. Market analysis

Products: PVC futures fluctuated on the 29th due to the triple accident in Inner Mongolia. The spot market is stable as a whole, and the quotations of individual enterprises fluctuate slightly. At present, the social inventory is at a low level, the procurement enthusiasm of downstream products industry is general, the maintenance just needs replenishment, and some businesses have obvious emotions of price reduction and shipment. Near the end of the month, the sales pressure increases, the supply side is good and hard to support the market, and the market transaction center moves down. At present, PVC (5-type calcium carbide interval: 6620-6670 yuan / ton, 5-type mainstream quotation: 6700-6800 yuan / ton, 5-type calcium carbide method: 6050-6120 yuan / ton, 6470-6550 yuan / ton). According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of October 29, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is about 6410-6750 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the ex factory price of Northwest carbide was temporarily stable on 29th. The price of raw material coke is low and the cost of carbide is generally supported. The downstream products enterprises are generally acceptable, the starting load of hard products is not high, the soft products and high-end medical supplies industries are generally started, the overall market demand has not been significantly improved, and the confidence in the field is insufficient.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on October 28, 2019, there was a total of one kind of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall, with PET (0.18%) rising. There are 5 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products falling were natural rubber (- 1.43%), PC (- 1.41%) and PS (- 0.61%). The average price of this day is – 0.25%.

III. future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club think that: at present, some upstream production enterprises of PVC are overhauled, and the supply side is good for support, but the overall demand of the downstream is limited, and the users purchase on demand, and the confidence in the field is insufficient. PVC market is expected to consolidate in the short term.

I. price trend:

On October 26, the hydrogenated benzene commodity index was 58.31, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.84% from 102.01 (2014-01-09), the highest point in the cycle, and up 30.86% from 44.56, the lowest point on August 31, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-12-01 to now).

II. Market analysis:

Domestic market: this week, the hydrogenation benzene market was mainly shaken and sorted, and the operation rate of coking enterprises gradually recovered after the National Day holiday. Although there are many environmental protection production restrictions in Hebei, the operation rate is relatively stable nationwide, around 70% as a whole. This week, some hydrogenated benzene units were shut down for maintenance, but the overall operating rate is still rising, about 50%. Market supply improved. In terms of price, as of Friday, the price in East China was about 5200 yuan / ton, while in Shandong, it was about 5000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: crude oil: pure benzene: at the beginning of this week, the pure benzene market was affected by forced air and the spot supply in East China was tight, with the price up. Near the end of the weekend, the shortage of replenishment ended, the market mentality turned to prudence, and the price weakened.

3. Trend forecast:

Next week, there are mixed positive and negative factors in the field. In addition, the environmental protection and production restriction plan for heating season has not yet been announced, and the hydrobenzene market is mainly volatile.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of Friday (October 25), the average price of n-butanol in the mainstream area is 6350 yuan / ton (including tax). Compared with Friday, the price in the mainstream area is basically the same, and the overall operation of n-butanol is stable this week. At present, the mainstream price of n-butanol in China is around 6300-6800 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the n-butanol market is in stable operation as a whole. Due to the expectation of restart of some devices, the atmosphere of spot negotiation in the n-butanol market shows slight signs of fading. The mainstream factory shipments are stable. The downstream users are a little less confident in the later trend. The wait-and-see mood is heavy. The implementation of the contract is mainly long, and the core users are mostly just in need of procurement. The short-term sales pressure of n-butanol in Shandong market is relatively small. This week, the market volume is large, the plant load is reduced, the inventory and sales pressure are relieved in the short term, the focus of the factory shipment negotiation is stable as a whole, supporting the market to make firm offers. At present, this week, Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. delivered 6400 yuan / ton from Shandong, 6650 yuan / ton from East China and 6800 yuan / ton from South China.

Industry chain: the overall price of propylene, the upstream product of n-butanol, has been stable this week, and the market price of propylene in Shandong has been stable. At present, the market turnover is about 7200-7550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7200 yuan / ton. At present, the market mentality of propylene has improved. Although the downstream products are still in a downward trend, the overall profit margin is acceptable, and the purchasing enthusiasm has increased. Macroscopically, the price of propylene is mainly stable and has strong desire to rebound. It is expected that the market price of propylene will start to recover in the near future.

III. future forecast

According to the analysis by the data analyst of the business agency, affected by the market sentiment of crude oil rising, the downstream purchasing situation has improved significantly, and it is expected that the overall price of propylene market will rise slightly in the near future.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, since the beginning of this week (10.21), the domestic methanol market has been in a “dive”. As of October 24, the average price of the domestic methanol market is 2100 yuan / ton, down 10.64% in the week. Prices fell 4.89% month on month and 34.38% year on year.

II. Market analysis

Product: in the domestic market, due to the limited delivery in Northwest China last week, the methanol market price in Northwest China fell sharply at the beginning of this week, and the market was full of bearish sentiment. At present, the downstream receiving mood is still poor, and the manufacturer’s shipment is not smooth. Other markets are mainly in decline, and the on-site trading is light. Methanol futures continued to decline, with fluctuations in the port market, trading in the region is limited, mainly wait-and-see. In terms of units, one 300000 t / a methanol unit in Inner Mongolia is under restart, one 600000 T / a methanol unit is under shutdown for maintenance, and one 600000 T / a unit in Shaanxi is planned to be under short-term maintenance, and there is no significant change in other aspects.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market is declining steadily, the raw material methanol market continues to weaken, the cost side is hard to find support, the environmental protection supervision is continuing, the demand side is low, and some parts are still weak, but the inventory of some other enterprises is not high, and they intend to stabilize the price.

Impact of formaldehyde on methanol: according to the trend comparison chart of methanol and formaldehyde of the business association, the price change trend of methanol and formaldehyde is basically the same, and formaldehyde market has a negative impact on methanol market.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market generally fell. At present, the operation of main acetic acid plants in China is stable, and the supply side is relatively loose. Although most manufacturers intend to stabilize the price, under the background that Shandong major enterprises reduce the price sharply again today, the downstream users still keep the price down, other suppliers passively follow the decline, and the mainstream market around the country falls. Spot transactions are just in need, while the current industry operating rate is at a high level, which is expected to be weak later.

Influence of acetic acid on methanol: according to the trend comparison chart of methanol and acetic acid in the business association, the price change trend and range of the two are basically the same. The acetic acid market is light, and the methanol market will also be affected by the negative under the condition of low downstream demand.

Dimethyl ether: the market price of dimethyl ether continued to be stable, some manufacturers slightly reduced, the overall market trading atmosphere was tepid, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers remained. The average price of DME in North China is 3521 yuan / ton, which is 9 yuan / ton lower than that in the previous working day. The price of dimethyl ether in Henan Province decreased slightly, with a range of about 30-50 yuan / ton, and the price in other regions was mainly stable. The market price of dimethyl ether in China has remained stable as a whole, but there is no lack of stable operation. Most manufacturers give up profits and take away goods. At present, the atmosphere of on-site trading and investment is relatively light, the manufacturer’s shipment is blocked, the market demand is not high, the operators hold a stable wait-and-see attitude, and the enthusiasm of entering the market is not high. The upstream methanol market is still sluggish today, and the cost support of DME market is weak. Although the crude oil market rebounded, the favorable factors are not enough, and the demand may be warmer in the later stage. It is expected that the domestic market of DME will keep stable in the short term.

Influence of dimethyl ether on methanol: according to the trend comparison chart of methanol and dimethyl ether of the business association, the price change trend of the two is slightly different since the beginning of this week (10.21). The market of dimethyl ether has a positive impact on the future market of methanol.

III. future forecast

Business club point of view: in the later stage, Inner Mongolia and other places continue to sell at low prices; downstream delivery is cautious. Macro and crude oil operation is mainly weak, the phenomenon of high port inventory is hard to disappear, the traditional downstream demand tends to shrink, some MTO devices in Shandong are planned to be overhauled, although the price of Northwest upstream enterprises has been greatly reduced, but the water is still rising seriously at present, the methanol analysts of the business community predict that China’s methanol market or weak consolidation is mainly.

I. price trend

According to a large number of data in the list of business agencies, the domestic caprolactam market was down in mid October. On October 10, the average market price of caprolactam was 12800 / T, and on October 20, the average market price of domestic caprolactam was 12500 / T, with a 2.34% drop in price. Up to now, the caprolactam commodity index on October 22 is 63.21, which is flat with yesterday, 36.79% lower than the highest point of 100.00 (2017-03-02), and 8.68% higher than the lowest point of 58.16 on May 16, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)

II. Market analysis

Product: the price of caprolactam began to fall in mid October. Up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 11600 yuan / ton. Cash is delivered out of the factory. The first and second phase units are in normal operation, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 12700 yuan / ton, which is delivered upon acceptance, and 450000 tons of caprolactam units are in normal operation. The price of caprolactam liquid in Fujian Tianchen is 13300 yuan / ton. The unit is in normal operation and delivered upon acceptance.

Industry chain: the domestic market of cyclohexanone continued to decline. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of cyclohexanone fell 10.99% month on month and 39.23% year on year. In terms of enterprises, Hualu Hengsheng overhauls, industry operating rate drops, raw material pure benzene, crude oil uncertainty and Sino US trade relations will still affect the market, but the recovery of terminal demand is slow, and the market is expected to fluctuate next week. In case of oversupply, the downstream PA6 chips will be reduced to inventory. The cost of slicing is loose, the pressure of polymerization cost is increasing, and the market weakness has not changed.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 41st week of 2019 (10.14-10.18), there are 14 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are DMF (12.00%), hydrogen peroxide (11.62%) and sulfur (5.32%). There are 38 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 8 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 9.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are butadiene (- 9.07%), phenol (- 7.16%) and isopropanol (- 6.22%). This week’s average was – 0.76%.

III. future forecast

According to caprolactam analysts of the business club, after the National Day holiday, the raw material price fell sharply, the downstream demand decreased, the pressure of caprolactam shipment increased under the upstream and downstream constraints, the liquid price began to decline, and the solid price fell with the liquid price. It is expected that the weak finishing of caprolactam in the later period will slow down the downward trend of prices.