I. price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly this week, with the quotation rising 0.2% from 1696.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1700.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 13.53% year on year. Overall, the urea market rose this week, with the urea commodity index at 79.07 on December 13.
| Sulfamic acid 99.50% |
II. Market analysis
Product: the main urea factory price in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this weekend is 1690 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1690 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea this weekend is 1720 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable.
Market demand: at present, the domestic market trading slows down slightly, some areas are affected by the early warning of heavy air pollution, some manufacturers have short-term shutdown and reduction of their units, and the start-up of urea enterprises is less than 60%, the enthusiasm of downstream receiving goods is not strong, and the demand is light. The amount of agricultural fertilizer is not large, and traders are on the low side of the bargain. It is expected that the short-term market will be stable and weak, and the manufacturers will adjust flexibly according to their production and sales.
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Industry chain: upstream products as a whole seem to have declined slightly: the price of natural gas has declined slightly, from 4400.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4266.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 3.03%, down 23.35% compared with the same period of last year; the price of liquid ammonia this week is temporarily stable, with the price of 3256.67 yuan / ton, down 2.30% compared with the same period of last year, and the urea cost support this week is weak as a whole. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, with the price of 6000.00 yuan / ton. The purchasing capacity in the downstream was average, which had a negative impact on the price of urea. At the same time, the lower level of downstream compound fertilizer production has a negative impact on urea.
III. future forecast
In the middle of December, the urea market in Shandong Province was dominated by low consolidation. According to urea analysts of business association, at present, some manufacturers throw in advance orders, which temporarily stabilizes the sales pressure; while the demand is still weak, combined with the low start-up of compound fertilizer enterprises, the industrial demand has also declined, and the amount of agricultural fertilizer preparation is not large. At present, the domestic market does not have a greater positive support. It is expected that the short-term market will be consolidated at a low level.
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