Price trends:
The crude benzol commodity index on August 10 was 57.16, unchanged from yesterday, down 56.64% from the cyclical peak of 131.84 points (2013-01-28), and up 45.63% from the lowest point of 39.25 on December 22, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market analysis:

This week (8.05-8.09) the domestic crude benzol Market declined, with the average domestic market price at 3716.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 3650 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 1.79%.

Domestic market: There are many negative factors in this week’s market, pure benzene external disc and international crude oil are lower. The market generally holds a bearish attitude towards the future market of Sinopec pure benzene. On the macro side, RMB exchange rate breaks 7, friction escalation, pure benzene external disc continues to decline, market mentality is not good, and the pressure on manufacturers to move goods increases. As of Friday, the mainstream offer in crude benzene market was 3150-3500 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from last week. Demand: downstream hydrobenzene enterprises start relatively stable, but at present manufacturers are not very motivated to purchase, and have digested pre-inventory. In Shanxi, Henan and Hebei, the start-up rate of some hydrobenzene enterprises has not been restored, the downstream demand is limited, and crude benzene lacks downstream support. Supply side: This week, coking enterprises started stably, with a steady start-up rate of about 7-80%. The market is relatively abundant, and there is pressure on coking enterprises to deliver goods.

Industry chain: crude oil rebounded on Thursday after falling this week. By Friday’s close, Brent was 5.93% lower than last Friday, while WTI was 2.34%. Influenced by the trade war at the beginning of the week, market concerns about slowing economic growth and reducing oil demand revived. EIA again lowered its global oil demand forecast and international oil prices fell. On Wednesday, EIA released data showing that U.S. crude oil and refined oil stocks had increased and international stocks had plunged as of August 2. On Thursday, Saudi Arabia said it would take measures to stabilize the oil market and stop oil prices falling and rebounding. Pure benzene: Sinopec lowered the listing price of 100 yuan/ton and 150 yuan/ton of pure benzene on the 5th and 8th respectively; Sinopec lowered the price next day by 250 yuan/ton compared with last week. This week, about 156,000 tons of pure benzene were in stock at the port, up from last week. Influenced by bad news such as crude oil, pure benzol and the softer downstream market, the traders are cautious and wait-and-see in the downstream market. Hydrobenzene aspect: Hydrobenzene enterprises started relatively stable this week, and the domestic market except Shanxi, Hebei and Henan basically started normal. The tender price of crude benzol in the main producing area dropped sharply this week, with a drop of about 200 yuan/ton. Market participants were short-sighted. The enthusiasm of entering the market downstream was not high and the transaction was limited. It further suppressed the hydrobenzene market. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of domestic hydrobenzene market in Shandong was 4500-4550 yuan/ton, and the market fell by about 200-250 yuan/ton.

3. Trend forecast:

Pure benzene market continues to hang upside down, the external market continues to fall, crude benzene demand and supply can not support, under the influence of multiple negative, crude benzene market is expected to continue to weaken next week.

Price Trend

The propane market rose first and then fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average propane market price was 3605 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week it was 3582.5 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 0.62%, 25.3% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, the domestic propane market is mainly narrow adjustment, the market turnover atmosphere is general. As of August 9, the propane self-use of Dongming Petrochemical Company in Shandong Province was suspended, while the production of Qingdao Refinery and Chemical Company in Sinopec was suspended for the time being. The ex-factory price of propane in Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group is 3800 yuan/ton, Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group is 3580 yuan/ton, Shandong Huifeng Petrochemical Company is 3620 yuan/ton, Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company is 3630 yuan/ton, Shandong Binzhou Dayou Group is 3600 yuan/ton./ Tons. The ex-factory price of propane in Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3500 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The domestic liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong) market rose steadily this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic liquefied petroleum gas market was 3750 yuan/ton, the average price of the weekend was 3766.67 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.44%, and the price fell by 12.81% compared with the same period last year. Domestic propylene (Shandong) fell continuously this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic propylene market was 7875 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 7531 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 4.37%, 20.55% compared with the same period last year. Saudi Amy Corp. announced in August that the price of propane was narrowly lowered and the price of butane was narrowly increased. Propane was 370 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton from last month; butane was 360 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from last month. The cost of long cargo propane is about 3056 yuan per ton on shore and 2980 yuan per ton on butane. With the introduction of CP in August, the import cost has not changed much compared with last month, and has little impact on the market. Spot prices of international crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas fell this week, with a bearish market mentality and a general trading atmosphere. However, manufacturers have a clear price-fixing mentality, mostly adjusting slightly according to their own conditions, and the overall price stability is the main factor. At present, the weather is hot, the demand side is difficult to improve, downstream more on-demand procurement, the overall purchase and sale is stable.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 31 st week of 2019 (8.5-8.9), there were 16 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 2 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (12.69%), acetic anhydride (10.50%) and butadiene (4.20%). There are 36 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are yellow phosphorus (-22.73%), sulfur (-5.81%) and propylene (-4.45%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.41%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propane analysts of business associations believe that the introduction of CPs price in August has little change compared with last month, has little impact on the market, and the demand has not improved significantly in the short term, but the manufacturers’price-fixing mentality is obvious, and it is expected to continue the cross-market adjustment next week.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the PA66 market was in general in the second week of August, and the quotation was weak. As of August 8, the average price of viscous injection grade mainstream offer in PA66 was about 25350.00 yuan/ton, which was 2.50% lower than that at the beginning of the month.

Analysis of influencing factors:

Products: PA66 upstream adipic acid market rebounded at the end of the month, prices rebounded. In August, the market atmosphere was slightly stalemate, trading was normal, and the market was calm and tidy. This week, there was a strong atmosphere of on-site wait-and-see, and TRADERS’quotations were firm. Downstream follow-up is general, stock enthusiasm is flat, buy on demand is the main. At present, supply and demand are relatively stable and balanced, and the recent market may continue to maintain a narrow adjustment; at the end of last month, Qixiang Tengda and China Chemical Group jointly invested in the establishment of the Tianchen Qixiang. The technology of direct hydrocyanidation of butadiene to adiponitrile, which was independently developed, was announced publicly, and passed the appraisal of scientific and technological achievements of China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation as early as 2015, which will break the foreign monopoly of adiponitrile technology. The production capacity expansion of adiponitrile, an important intermediate in the production of PA66 engineering plastics, has become a foregone conclusion, and the cost of PA66 will be gradually reduced by the support of adiponitrile in the future. It is expected that China’s PA66 market will be a long-term impact.

Demand: At present, domestic PA66 chip spot supply is abundant, downstream factories continue to weaken. The market is depressed in buying gas. Businessmen take a hollow view. Traders follow the market. Most of the transactions are detailed.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the domestic PA66 market continues to operate weakly in the near future. This week’s Sino-US trade frictions led to the breakdown of the offshore RMB 7, which has little effect on the price increase of PA66 market. In addition, the upstream support is not good, the downstream sustained long-term demand is insufficient background, this week PA66 offer fell, the market has no good support for the time being. It is expected that PA66 will continue its weak adjustment in the near future.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has been declining sharply in recent days. The average price of propylene (Shandong) enterprises last Sunday (August 4) was 7977 yuan/ton, and today (August 7) it has dropped to 7638 yuan/ton, a decline of up to 4.24%.

II. Analytical Review

Products: The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province has been stable since August, and began to fall on the 5th day. Today, the total price of propylene enterprises has dropped by 350 yuan/ton. At present, the market turnover is around 7550-8000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is about 7600 yuan/ton. Macroscopic market weakened further and the propylene market was short.

Industry chain: Upstream, crude oil has been declining significantly in recent days, which has a negative impact on propylene. Downstream, the recent polypropylene futures market is also not ideal, propylene or negative effect. Downstream factories just need to purchase mainly, refinery shipment pressure continues to rise, so that the mood of profit and drainage warehouse warming up.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propylene analysts from Business Society Chemical Branch believe that, in general, the recent spot prices of international crude oil and PP are not ideal, downstream just needs to be purchased, and refinery shipment pressure is high. Propylene prices are expected to decline in the near future.

I. Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as shown in the figure above, copper prices have gone through an “inverted V” trend in the past month and experienced a small roller coaster. Throughout this year’s copper trend, copper is now at a lower position in the year. Since reaching its highest position in the year at the end of March, copper prices have fallen more than once, with an amplitude of 8.61%. As of August 6, copper was trading at 46146.67 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the previous trading day.

According to the current copper futures table of business associations, the spot price of copper in the near future is higher than the main contract price for most of the time. The main contract price is the price of copper in the next two months. The spot price is higher than the main contract price of copper, indicating that people are not optimistic about the future price of copper.

Sino-US trade disputes continue to escalate and the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar breaks the “7″

U.S. President Trump said last week that he would impose more tariffs on Chinese imports and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods worth $300 billion, which, if implemented, could further reduce China’s exports by 2.7% and drag down China’s GDP growth by 50 basis points. China has vowed to fight back to end a month-long trade truce between the world’s two largest economies. The trade war will be a protracted war that will lead to the emergence of our bear market fundamentals in most commodity prices.

For the first time in more than a decade, China has allowed the renminbi to break through the 7-yuan guaranteed export data against the dollar, a sign that Beijing may be willing to allow the renminbi to weaken further, which may further exacerbate trade conflicts. Trade disputes are believed to weaken economic growth and hit demand for metals, escalating disputes and damaging market sentiment.

Weak terminal demand

Retail sales in the passenger car market fell 16% year-on-year in July from 1 to 4 weeks, significantly lower than the 5% growth rate in June to 4 weeks, according to the CRC data. Recent copper rod, copper pipe, copper sheet and foil processing industry start-up rate last year has declined to a certain extent, especially copper sheet and foil start-up rate dropped by nearly 10%, indicating poor downstream demand. The main reason for the slump in terminal consumption is that the investment in power grid, which accounts for the first proportion of consumption, dropped by 19.3% in January-June compared with the same period last year, and the start-up rate of wire and cable enterprises declined more.

Data from Citigroup Demand Tracker showed that the slowdown in Chinese manufacturing had a particularly significant impact on copper, with copper use in the world’s largest consumer shrinking sharply for the first time since 2015.

Supply is still tight

Upstream copper supply is still tight, copper processing costs continue to decline, and imports of scrap copper are limited in July 2019. In the second batch of copper scrap policies, the total amount of six kinds of copper scrap import approvals in the second batch was 124,500 tons, which was 48.2% lower than that in the first batch of 240,000 tons. The data showed that the imports of the vast majority of enterprises receiving the approvals were the same as that of last year’s average quarterly imports. However, in view of the implementation of the solid waste import ban at the end of 2020, the classification of resources is still under discussion. The key is whether the brass can be imported or not. There is not much suspense about dividing copper into resource categories. Assuming that brass can not enter the Chinese market, there will be a gap of nearly 300,000-400,000 tons of metal.

In summary, in the case of relatively loose supply, consumption off-season and macro-economy can not support a sharp rise in copper prices, macro-negative, short-term copper prices are not optimistic, and the expected price fluctuation is between 44,000 and 48,000 yuan/ton.